Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 7th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Thank you for coming out!

Kyle B: How high are you on Bryan Woo this season and in a dynasty format? I thought he showed some real promising signs last year and has good stuff, but he’s still in the 40s-50s in a lot of predraft lists.

Paul Sporer: I’m a fan! He’s in the 50s for me, essentially paired w/teammate Bryce Miller where I will take one once the first one is selected. He is being fairly priced after a solid debut so even if he doesn’t take a major step forward, you’re not being pinched at the draft table to take the shot on him

Clayton’s back: Hey Paul.  In a 12 team roto with 3 OFs and no CI or MI pick two to keep: L. Webb 5th, O. Cruz 11th, Casas 19th and Royce 22nd.  None of my other keepers are pitchers and my first pick will be in the 5th round (unless I keep Webb).  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I gotta go Royce at that price. It really neutralizes the risk to pay a 22nd rounder for him so he’s the easy choice for me even w/the other 3 being strong players

Greg: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat. I’m in a head-to-head points league, daily lineup changes and we start 11 hitters. I have Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker as three of my keepers. I added Yainer Diaz last season and am now considering keeping him as well. Is four guys from the same lineup – even a lineup that good – too much in that type of league? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: No, not for me. I really don’t get caught up in that especially in a strong lineup like Houston’s. Those are 3 studs and a rising stud in Diaz. I have no problem overloading a quality lineup

Guest: Hi Paul, first time joining! What do you think the player’s reaction in the Red Sox clubhouse is now that we found out there will be a Netflix crew following them around?

Paul Sporer: Likely a mixed bag. I’m sure some will relish it, others will despise it, and still some others will be unbothered either way. I’d be surprised if there was any sort of universal feeling from the club

Pedro: Hi Paul.  What are your thoughts on Zach Eflin this year?  I can keep him at $15 in an AL only 5×5 but am wary that he will repeat last year’s amazing season.  Thanks in advance

Paul Sporer: The beauty is that he doesn’t need to repeat to be worth $15 in an AL Only so I’m definitely keeping him there. It’d be prudent to plan for some giveback, but he showed some skills with Philly, too, so this wasn’t completely out of nowhere. Staying healthy was a massive factor this year and while that’s never guaranteed, it’s good to know that if he’s upright, he should be delivering plenty of quality outings

Orioles: They making moves. How soon is Holliday up and what’s his value?

Paul Sporer: There’s at least a reasonable chance he breaks camp, but if not then I’d be surprised if it took too long within the season. He looks like a full on dude. That said, even for dudes, there can be some early struggles at the big league level. As a post-200 pick in recent drafts, some of the risk is covered. I wouldn’t draft him if I’m not committed to holding until he comes up, even if for some reason that ends up being something like Memorial Day (seems unlikely, but not impossible w/their obscene depth)

Guest: Hi Paul! 13tm roto 5×5. Keep three at round value. Strider locked in at 10; torn on my other two: Gallen (3), ERod (17), Bradish (13), McCormick (13), Kim (13), Bibee (13).

Paul Sporer: Gallen’s great, but not better enough to pay the round premium over the remainder of the group. I’m inclined to go 1 hitter/1 pitcher w/your other 2 and for me, the lean is Kim and Bradish. The other 3 are all right there, too, so I do think it’s a personal preference decision given that 4 of them have the same round value and then ERod is the cheapest at 17.

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat. I’m in a 12tm 6×6 roto, $275 cap. Keep 3: M. Harris ($20), EDLC ($10), Y. Diaz ($10), F. Peralta ($10), K. Bradish ($6), J. Duran ($6)

I’m leaning Diaz and Bradish to start, but feel like there are so many ways to go here. Only threw Duran in to consider a top CP at such a cheap price, but I don’t think I can bring myself to keep a closer

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think you’re too deep to keep Duran despite that great price. This is a great spot to keep EDLC since you aren’t paying the crazy 2nd round premium that he carries in redraft leagues, so he’s a must for me. From there, I lean toward Bradish as I’m a huge fan. I think Peralta and Harris are very much in the mix, too, and I probably lean toward one of them instead of Diaz. C is just so deep so while that Diaz price is fair, I’d rather go for someone like Harris and then address C at the auction table. The savings on EDLC and Bradish allow you to pay up a little for Harris (not that $20 is crazy)

CoopDeVille: Do you think Bryce Harper will gain OF eligibility at some point this season?

Paul Sporer: I’d be kinda surprised if he did, tbh. I think he’s pretty locked into 1B

Miguel: Hi paul, what do you ding Caddanne Rafaela needs to do in the next couple of years to become a regular starter?

Paul Sporer: Probably make more consistent contact. The glove is MLB-ready for sure, but he doesn’t have enough power to cover his lack of overall consistent contact so to really carve out a full-time role, the Ks need to come down and get that ball in play more so he can leverage the speed

Jesse: What’s a better predictor of 2nd year hitter breakthrough: rookie success against fastballs or breaking balls?

Jesse: Yes that was a Jordan Walker question

Paul Sporer: I was a big Jordan Walker fan last year and while he didn’t pan out as well as I’d hoped, he did enough to keep me fully bought in. He still has colossal upside and while he isn’t cheap at ADP 125, that’s a perfectly reasonable price for me. He closed strong, too, as you highlight, and I did like seeing that after the summer lull (.609 OPS in July)

C-Dawg: Hey Paul!  Any later-round (ADP 150+) ratio-protecting SP’s you particularly like this year?

Paul Sporer: If Ryan Pepiot keeps those control gains, he can definitely be one and I love him at 190 ADP. It’ll usually be boring vets who can help the ratios at that ADP range: E-Rod, Civale, Bieber, Stroman, Maeda (for WHIP at least)… Ober’s HR issue gives him some ERA risk, but his WHIP should be strong

Cory: In a keeper league, 5×5 10 team – if I dangle Adolis Garcia, any chance I could snag Logan Gilbert or will it take more?

Paul Sporer: Won’t know if you don’t ask. It’s nowhere near an insulting ask. A lot of people looove Adolis so you might even be able to get Gilbert + a throw-in from the right manager

Peter: Hi Paul, who do you like better this season- Braxton Garrett or Ryan Pepiot?

Paul Sporer: Gotta go with my guy Pepiot. I mentioned his control gains earlier and I’m a believer! Going LAD to TB doesn’t really change much as both teams are great at developing arms but he should get some more IP and continue to evolve into a strong arm. That said, I’m not anti-Garrett so he’s a perfectly solid pick the 180s, I just love Pepiot so he gets the nod for me

Clayton’s back: Thanks Paul.  Just a follow up who would you pick for the second keeper after Royce: L Webb 5th, O. Cruz 11th or Casas 19th.  Thanks

Paul Sporer: While he is easily the most expensive, it’d probably be Webb. I just love the bankable strong volume and 5th round is a perfectly fine price for me.

Big in Japan: Do you think mlb expanding will help increase the chances specialists make the majors? I miss seeing knuckleballers pitch

Paul Sporer: Pitching dilution is usually the first thing that really stands out during expansion so it could create some avenues for specialization. I certainly hope the knuckleball isn’t dead as it’s always so fun to watch someone succeed with it

Big Al: CJ Abrams’s second half: the silence in the fantasy community is deafening. Where are we at with this (budding superstar? empty hit tool? okay shortstop?)

Paul Sporer: Are you sure it’s silent? He’s a top 40 pick!! There is major upside, but that price is too rich for me. His 2nd half surge was really SB-driven as the bat was still just a .766 OPS from June 19th on (41 SBs in 88 gms)

Colton: Small Sample Sally here, but is Oneil Cruz being underrated by people this year? Seemed to make a pretty decent jump in the plate skills department last year. I understand the EDLC and him comps for obvious reasons, but he feels a lot safer to improve than Elly.

Paul Sporer: I certainly prefer him way over EDLC given their prices and yeah the comps are just too easy to avoid even if they feel lazy. That said, I don’t think he’s being underrated bc he’s still a top 85 pick despite essentially missing the entire season due to a major injury. And I suspect his price will rise sharply if he shows out during Spring Training, so definitely buy now if you like Oneil Cruz bc he’s unlikely to get cheaper

RAGBRAI: Chourio is on the OD roster correct?

Paul Sporer: Almost assuredly, yeah. The contract gives me a ton of confidence that he is.

Allen Park: Hey Sporer, what do we think happens with Oswald Peraza this year?

Paul Sporer: A lot of it likely hinges on DJ LeMahieu’s health. I remain a fan as a post-hype guy. He didn’t anything worthwhile in 2023, but that doesn’t push me off the 24-year old. He still had 16 HR/14 SB in 300 PA at Triple-A. He’s got an MLB-viable glove so if a spot opens up, I think he could be a sneaky producer. He’s someone I’ve nabbed in a couple Draft Champions leagues (50 round Draft & Hold)

Guest#1937: Morning Paul. Am I missing anything about Wilyer Abreu? He’s got an ADP of 400+ on fantrax, but he’s got a relatively everyday job in Boston, decent power and strong OBP. Good defense according to scouting so that should keep him in the lineup. Performed well in the minors and his cup last year. I see solid upside at a position without much depth. Easy target at the end of a draft?

Paul Sporer: Totally agree with you on targeting him at that ADP. He should at least be a strong side platoon with pop and even a bit of speed (11 SB in 448 PA). And if they let him have the full role, there is some major upside. I’m a fan for sure!!

Snapshot: How broken do you think Alek Manoah is?  Do you think there’s a chance he even gets to, say, 75% of his 2022 season?  Or did the pitch clock break him beyond repair?

Paul Sporer: He was pretty broken last year, but there is absolutely a chance to return to prominence. We’ve seen countless pitchers rise from the dead so he wouldn’t even be unique on that front and with an ADP near 400, it doesn’t hurt to take the gamble if you still believe. I certainly hope he can get back as he was really fun to watch in 2021-22

Ceaseless Turmoil Seething: Will the ChiSox regret not taking the Burnes Package+ for Cease?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so because they should be able to get something pretty comparable with the extra year of control for Cease covering the skills gap between the 2. Apparently they’re asking for the stars & moon and maybe this deal brings them back to reality a bit. I think the bigger regret would be just keeping him

Guest: I’ve been offered 3 years of Tarik Skubal and 1 year of Pablo Lopez for 1 year of Trea Turner.  Am I getting enough in return?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. It’s tough to take arms for bankable hitters, especially someone like Trea, but both pitchers you’re getting have frontline upside and you get Skubal beyond this year. I can see both sides of the deal, it’s fair enough for me

Miguel A: Who do you think will be the most exciting prospect that I could get in the middle to late rounds of a 3 player keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Someone like Junior Caminero perhaps. He has bonkers pop and could play himself into a keeper role for 2025

Bo: Hi Paul, Big fan, first chat question. How optimistic are you about Chris Sale’s chances of finishing as a Top 25 starter with the Braves on a per inning basis? Would you rather have him or take a chance on someone like Bryce Miller?

Paul Sporer: Definitely prefer Sale over Miller. Sale’s upside is still very rich and moving to ATL is very exciting. I ranked him 40th but we know the risk is health over skills so if he can get 150+ IP, he has a great shot to land in the Top 25

Robert: Cole Ragans– believe or don’t believe?  I’m on the fence as to whether to protect him or not in a 12 team league with K’s

Paul Sporer: Fully in, I’m a huge fan! Without knowing the full context of your other keepers, he’s a yes for me

rob: For a keeper league, can keep both for same price – do you prefer hunter brown or Kyle bradish

Paul Sporer: I’m still a big Hunter Brown fan (touted him heavily last year and I’m not quitting him), buuuttt Bradish is the choice between these two for me.

Insert Witty Name Here: I Think last week you (or Justin) mentioned the find a league post that someone puts up to get people into leagues. Any update on that?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I had mentioned it. Mike Podhorzer runs it and usually posts it around this time of year. You can ping him on Twitter to see when he plans to do it. I’ll also ask internally and answer next week if you remind me! https://twitter.com/MikePodhorzer

Ducky: What should I make of Nolan Jones? Those k’s and that babip  worry me. He is more or less risky than Royce Lewis?

Paul Sporer: I’d say a little more risky. Lewis’s risk is entirely health-based for me and while it is a legit risk given his history, I still lean toward the guy with the skills in place v. someone like Nolan Jones who rode a colossal BABIP to his success last year. That isn’t to say he was just some lucky dude who didn’t do anything well, but with his swing and miss, he needs to run a strong BABIP to drive his value. He is in the right park to drive another high BABIP, but it’s always a little nerve wracking to bet on BABIP

Big in Japan: how long will LA go with Barnes over Feduccia as their backup catcher?

Paul Sporer: If Barnes hits like he did last year (or didn’t, as it were) then the Dooch could be knocking on the door pretty quickly. Diego Cartaya isn’t super far off, either. He sputtered in AA this past season, but a .216 BABIP was a big culprit, so he’ll be a call away this year, too. Fedducia is 27 so nothing really left to prove at Triple-A, can definitely see him getting a shot to win that backup role in Spring

ML: If Brooks Lee gets called up this year, where does he play? I’m assuming the Twins would slide Joulien to 1st and put Lee at 2nd.

Paul Sporer: Kinda depends if it’s an injury that brings him up and who that injury is to. Because Carlos Santana is playing 1B right now with Kirilloff at DH. If Kiri gets hurt to fuel a Lee call-up, then it works easily to shift Santana to DH, Julien to 1B, and Lee to 2B.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I’m gonna head out. I’ll be adding more SP profiles to the rankings late this week or early next. Thanks so much for coming out!!