Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 4th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

Robert: Hi Paul.  Pick one to keep in a 12 team roto league with 3 OF and no CI or MI: CJ Abrams 6th, Sale 6th, Jhoan Duran 6th, Naylor 6th, Bednar 11th.  Currently keeping: Soto, JRod, JRam, Crochet, Gilbert and Woo.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I think it’s a good spot to get your ace closer here with Duran or Bednar. I love Duran, but I can’t see him being worth 5 rounds more than Bednar so my heavy lean is toward Bednar. He was completely back last year and now has the Yankees job.

Dave: Is McGonigle worth keeping in a 12-team/keep-6 format?  Or is his playing time too unpredictable for this year?

Paul Sporer: I’d have a hard time making that commitment right now without any sort of spring work to see how he might be angling toward a role. I’m very excited about him, but my confidence in him being a top-6 best player on a 12-team league off rip isn’t SUPER high. Just go for him in the draft again!

Marissa: how many regular season gms will be missed due to the lockout next year?

Paul Sporer: Ugh it’s hard to feel super confident that the season isn’t impacted some way, be it a delayed spring training that pushes the start back a little or outright missed games. I hate to be doom and gloom, but I’m struggling to find reasons for optimism that this won’t be an ugly fight. I haven’t answered your question bc I really don’t have a good guess at how many, but I share in what I think is your valid concern that this question even needs to be asked a year in advance

James: 16 team dynasty, if you had to choose between keeping Jacob Melton or Parker Meadows, who would you select?

Paul Sporer: Ooh interesting pair. Another one I definitely wish I had more time to start seeing where things go in Spring Training, particularly for Melton because I do think the Tigers will remain committed to Meadows in CF if he can stay healthy. Melton doesn’t have a clear spot right now, though Jake Fraley’s health has been an ever-present question, but that’s probably the 1v1 he’s facing because I doubt Melton will get a bench spot as a lefty himself (entire starting TB OF is lefty).

Meadows hasn’t really leapt off the page skills-wise but he can be an accumulator if he can stay healthy. He has essentially a full season of work: .232/308/.386, 16 HR, 21 SB, 80 R, 57 RBI in 656 PA. We’d want more (especially in the AVG), but 16/21 is something only 30 players did last year. Gimme Meadows, but keep a close eye on Melton’s PT in spring

Blind mice: What are some deep 20 team league sleepers at SS.

Paul Sporer: Post Pick-300 notables for me:

• Brooks Lee
• Josh Smith
• Anthony Volpe
• Nasim Nunez
• Joey Ortiz
• Colt Emerson
• Carson Williams

and then if you just want some boring PT, both Cleveland guys are there with Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias. There’s a tinge of upside, especially if they’re amassing 500+ PA, but it’s likely to be just boring volume available late.

Herzog Texas Ranger: Thoughts on Leiter just about EVERY ranker has him between 80-90 for Dynasty and Redraft Pitchers, thoughts

Paul Sporer: I’ve got my next SP update coming by early tomorrow AM and I’ll add Leiter to my list of new profiles to do. I’m writing a bunch more after this chat so I’ll include him. I’m punting on the answer for right now, but I haven’t researched him yet so I’ll do that this afternoon!

Matt W.: 1st Draft champions draft of the year. Pick 6 Ramirez or Carroll?

Paul Sporer: Truly not a wrong pick as they are my 4-5 (behind Shohei, Judge, Witt — I’ve got Soto behind ’em as I think the SBs are an unknown). For the sake of not just fence sitting, I’ll go Ramirez. He is technically ranked higher for me and he’s just so damn good every year. 3B isn’t toooo far behind 2B in terms of superstar dearth which can also be a tiebreaker to go Ramirez over Carroll.

Pirates Fan: If Framber signs with the Pirates does that change his rank?

Paul Sporer: No, I’d probably hold firm at 28. I wouldn’t mind him heading to PNC especially as they’ve had a competent offseason to brighten up the team. Skenes-Framber 1-2 is hottt with Chandler-Keller-Ashcraft filling it out plus Jared Jones working back from internal brace TJ (and some ready to go prospect depth w/Barco & Harrington). The offense isn’t scary, but it added real punch w/Lowe and O’Hearn. Definitely wouldn’t mind him going there, not sure it moves him up, though.

Mariner fan: Whats your thoughts on Bryce Miller, do you see the rebound from the Elbow injury, or was last year the preview of more issues to come?

Paul Sporer: He’s also part of this upcoming SP update! I aggressively parked him initially all the way up at 34 before dropping to 44 last time. I think he’s going to the mid-50s in this next update which is still well ahead of the market (SP74 in recent winter drafts). I’m open to buying low. The elbow injury essentially spiked his season, but he did finish on the mound and while his regular season work wasn’t great at the end, he looked a lot better in three postseason starts — albeit still not at his 2024 level. He’s no doubt an injury risk, but that is well covered in the price for me so I’m buying

Cromulent: Are you buying Mike Trout at his current price/ADP? I look at his projections and I just don’t see it.

Paul Sporer: He’s around pick-215 since the middle of January (14 Draft Champions lgs) and while I’m not seeking him out like I did in years past – much to my dismay – I’m not running either. I understand the appeal of the young/youngish OFs around him: Heliot Ramos, Addison Barger, Jac Cags, Jasson Domiguez, Wilyer Abreu — but I’m not sure many of them can really be projected to top Trout’s 25/75 projection. Now if we’re talking upside, I think that’s where Trout’s case weakens, but it depends what you’re looking for at that pick. In short, I’m still in at this price as it better accounts for the huge risk we were eating the last few yrs w/his health. I hold a tiny shred of hope for one more dream season (40+ HR, I have no delusions of any crazy SB total)

Tim: Assuming he stays healthy, what is the ceiling for Hunter Greene? Top 5? Could he reach 200ks?

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, with health he’s a legit #1 upside candidate who can lead the league in strikeouts. There is clear risk w/his health and the persistent HRs, but not many guys legitimately have #1 upside

DJ: For dynasty leagues how are you currently valuing Andrew Painter and Jackson Jobe to one another. Do you have a clear favorite?

Paul Sporer: I gotta go Painter as the healthy guy right now. I’ll still be interested in Jobe next year hoping that he can contribute to the Tigers, but even 1:1 if both were healthy right now, I’d lean Painter, so given that he is healthy & Jobe’s returning from a June TJ, the decision is clear for me.

MF Luder: What are you feelings on Cam Schlitter? Good sell high candidate in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: I am fan and can’t wait to see how he follows up his debut. He absolutely has sell high juice that is worth entertaining. We know that pitchers just take a straight path to excellence so selling high on a young, unproven arm is at least worth entertaining to see what’s out there.

Dave: On a scale of 1 to Nate Cornejo, how bummed are you about the way Skubal’s arbitration has played out?

Paul Sporer: It just feels like an indication of how Chris Illitch is going to operate and not encouraging at all about keeping Skubal long-term. I just don’t understand how you’re that far off w/your B2B Cy Young winner

Ben: Lile a 20/20 guy this year?

Paul Sporer: Maybe more 13-16 HR for me if they commit to him all year, but if he can tighten up his base running decisions (8 for 14 last yr), he could surge past 20 SBs. He’s an interesting young bat for the Nats and going around pick-210 isn’t a terrible price, but I’ve found myself looking elsewhere in that range.

Brian: Are we looking at a bounce back year for George Kirby as he is now about a full year away from the injury.

Paul Sporer: Yes, I remain committed to Kirby! I just think he’s a stud and we haven’t even seen his best yet.

Dave: I know you’ve got Bieber ahead of Schlittler for your season ranks… would your calculus change in a keeper league (presuming a similar price)?  Would Schlittler’s youth give him enough of an edge, or are pitcher injuries so common/unpredictable that planning for a longer time horizon is folly?

Paul Sporer: Yes, a keeper league would flip these two for me. While it’s hard to plan toooo far ahead with pitching, I’m still taking Schlittler’s next 3 yrs over Bieber’s easily in a keeper setting.

Perdomo: Who do you see as the surprise breakout player like Perdomo  from last season?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s fun. Let’s stay at SS at first and go past pick-400. I just pulled my board from my 2nd NFBC draft which was late-March and Perdomo had a 489 ADP on that… he was even cheaper at this time last year. I don’t have anyone going THAT deep right now, but I have 3 post-400 picks at SS:

Brayan Rocchio – He did show decent plate skills in 442 PA in 2024 which unfortunately fell apart in 2025 w/his BB% essentially halving. He’s got double-double pwr-spd skills, especially with 600 PA. Remember, Perdomo had an 85 wRC+ in 1420 PA coming into this season so Rocchio’s 77 is worse but not thaaat far off.  A .290-20-20 season is probably Rocchio’s 95th percentile outcome.

Joey Ortiz – I’m sticking w/him for another year. I was really excited for him last year and it was a stonecold flop but if we’re looking for someone to rise from the depths and he’s in the depths right now! He also halved his BB% from 2024 to 2025, but at least also shaved 5 pts off his K% to help mitigate the dip a little.

Paul Sporer: And #3 is…

Nasim Nuñez – He’s a bit further out as I’m not sure the power is there to really pull a full Perdomo, even after ripping 4 HRs in just 92 PA. But he could more than make up for it with SBs. So maybe it’s 9-12 HRs, but possibly 40 SBs with a big AVG (in the universe where he breaks out, I’m not projecting a good AVG)

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll. I’m still planning a marathon chat soon. One of the next 2 weeks. Look for the SP rankings update early tomorrow morning!!

Fluffy: Is Yandy Diaz a treasure?

Paul Sporer: Had to sneak this last one in bc yes he is! That late AVG is just so useful!

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real!!