Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 26th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!! Tigers-Twins on the iPad, what a time to be alive!

Greg: I know you have SP rankings posted, but wanted to ask this in the context of a keep forever, 12-team points league. How would you rank Jared Jones, Sandy Alcantara, Bubba Chandler and Bryan Woo?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s a toughie. I think Sandy is still #1 even coming off TJ bc while it is keep forever, I don’t think TOO far out w/Ps just bc they constantly break. Bubba is right there, though. And then Woo/Jones very close behind. It’s a TIGHT group. But gimme Sandy as a the top dog still.

Guest: Hello!  I have $10 Skenes.  Would you rather pair him with $10 H. Brown or $15 Steele?  Or go with both and drop $10 Paredes?  Thank you sir!

Paul Sporer: Need a follow up — what kinda league setup? Bc that could determine the answer. I’m between Brown & Paredes.

Guest: Late ADP pitchers you’re interested in? Thinking of arms past pick 300 or so.

Paul Sporer: Here’s a handful from my Gold Diggin’ piece — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/gold-digging-building-a-team-after-pick-… — plus I’ll add: Ryan Weather, Cody Bradford, Dodgers – May/Miller/Gonso, Luis L. Ortiz, Quinn Mathews, and Brady Singer (yes, even w/the move to Cincy)

Guest: Roto with OPB and W+QS

Paul Sporer: ok OBP does push me toward Paredes w/Skenes. Paredes has double-digit BB% every year and I think he eats up the Crawford Boxes in Daikan Park (not Minute Maid anymore)

Keep it up!: AL Only, 10 team, $260, just for this year – can you give me a top ​t​wo? Royce Lewis $1, Gerrit Cole $15, Mason Miller $12, Vladito $35​, Langford $29. (NB: players traded to the NL have to be cut afterwards.)

Paul Sporer: Definitely rockin Royce for a buck. Then it’s either Vladito (I know you probably mentioned the trade thing specifically for him, but I’d take my chances) or Miller. Aces closers are just so rare, especially when you cut off one of the leagues. If you’re REALLY worried about a Vlad Jr. trade, I don’t hate a pivot to Langford

Max Kepler: Am I strictly a platoon bat in a 12 team dynasty league (40 man rosters)

Paul Sporer: I don’t know, I think he has a real shot at every day burn. I think Marsh is the one who gets platooned and I’m not sure they have someone to sit Marsh & Kep v. all lefties.

Young Guns: Which non-Jobe young arm do you like best for this season, given their situations, assuming none breaks camp? Rocker, Festa, Zebby, Cantillo, C Dana, Chayse McDermott, Povich? Or are you waiting for a call-up? Only league with a 3-man bench…

Paul Sporer: I dig both Twins w/a slight lean toward Festa over Zebby and then staying in the ALC, I’m a huge Cantillo fan. Rocker has the biggest upside of the group, but also the biggest downside given his volatility. So if you’re trying to shoot the moon, he’s probably the top guy, but I’d probably go Festa/Rocker/Zebby/Cantillo w/those 4

David Stearns: More likely to breakout Megill or Cabrera?

Paul Sporer: Is that Edward Cabrera? I can’t quit Tylor Megill and the recent injuries open things up for him, so that’s my lean if it is indeed E-Cab

tumtum: Does Santander get a boost this year with Vladdy protecting him?

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think that’s inherently better than being in the deeper O’s lineup, but I do like him plenty in Toronto!

Matt: Keep 2 as upside/bench bats. Bleday, J McCarthy, TJ Freidl, Cowser

Paul Sporer: Let’s go with 1 power guy and 1 speed guy — Bleday & Friedl. I’m a Cowser fan generally, but I’ll trade his extra SBs over Bleday for much better plate skills, particularly the 11 pt edge in K% for JJ. He’s also gonna be playing in a minor league park which is cool!

Ice Cream Helmet: My 5×5 10-team league is switching from ‘Saves’ to ‘2xSaves + Holds’.  How should this change my reliever valuation and draft strategy?

Paul Sporer: The 2x SVs is interesting so I wouldn’t COMPLETELY tank RPs the way I do in straight up SV/HD leagues, but I’m definitely pushing them down. I’m a pay-for-SVs guy so I’m usually scooping a stud. I’m not completely against it w/the 2x, but maybe more in the 6-12 range of closers instead of chasing a top 5 stud. From there, I’d like go for later closer or just get some holds guys

Mochi: Do we think Edwin Uceta is for real?  The sample sizes are tiny but is there anything you use/look at to try to help inform your feelings on something like this?

Paul Sporer: Real enough to be the Fairbanks handcuff or the pivot spec if you want to fade Fairbanks bc of his health. The huge control gains from Uceta were super impressive but he still had a 10% BB in AAA so I’m not sure how real they are. The swing-and-miss is though, so if even if he only holds some of the gains and puts up an 8% BB or something, that can definitely work

Kevin: Standard 5×5 15-team league can keep either one of Sandy Alcantara or Matt McLain at $1. With no category or position preferences, which one would you keep?

Paul Sporer: Love Sandy as I showed in an earlier question, but in a 1v1 comp w/a hitter I love, it’s the hitter. So gimme McLain!

Cast a Wide Neto: Thanks for doing these! 16 teams 6×6 with K:BB and IP added, significant inflation. Help me with my last three keepers please: CWalker $14, Rengifo $8, Neto $7, TajB $7, Schwelly $13

Paul Sporer: No prob, love chatting w/y’all! This is a good group… I’m big on CWalk in Houston so even as the most expensive, I’m slotting him in. From there, I think Neto gets removed bc of the injury (he is progressing well, but I’d rather go w/the healthier guys since it’s not like he’s WAY more skilled than teammate Rengifo). So Rengifo is #2 and then it comes down to the SPs. I love Schwelly (as many do this draft season), but I’m not sure he’s worth 2x the $ of Taj even w/the concerns of TB playing in a minor league… so gimme Taj as #3!!

Joe14: Any concerns about Tatis as a first round pick (around the 12/13 turn) ? Marte , Jrod & Merrill should also be available. 12T Roto with one hitter keeper per team

Paul Sporer: Not at all, I love Tatis!

tumtum: Andres Munoz was used in high-leverage situation by Servais and it cut into his save totals. Do you have any read on the new manager’s bullpen utilization? Wondering if I should keep Munoz or Ragans.

Paul Sporer: I haven’t seen anything yet, but I’m still drafting him as a relatively top-flight closer. That said I’m likely to keep Ragans over him unless you think a lot of closers will be kept

Chucky: Judge and Imanga or Julio and Butler?

Paul Sporer: Julio/Butler for me!

John: If you had to fill your last roster spot with a keeper pitcher ..would you pick Bubba Chandler or someone coming back form injury like Shane Bieber. It is a 5 year keeper pool.

Paul Sporer: Going Bubba there for sure

Paul: Paul, please help a fellow Paul!

In my 12-team, mixed, perpetual dynasty league, I’ve worked hard to put together this elite closer “quad.” Clase, Diaz, D-Williams, and Duran.

I have to give one up in a package for my missing piece — Mookie! I’m leaning Williams …

Your thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I will start by saying I’d be OK giving up any of the four to lock in Mookie, but I co-sign the Dev lean and I’m happy to offer him up first. I think that should get the deal done as only Clase ranks ahead of him at most outlets so it’s not like the other manager you’re dealing w/is gonna think you’re trying to short him. You’re giving him someone who can absolutely be the #1 closer

Why not Zoidberg?: Why is Steamer so low on Gerrrit Cole’s ERA? It has him at a 3.9 for the year.

Paul Sporer: It’s no doubt seeing the 3.67 SIERA from the last 2 yrs and building in some more age regression to get to that number despite his ERA being well below that in that same 2-yr period (2.87). I’m closer to OOPSY or ZiPS which has him in the 3.40-3.60 range

Rickey: In a dynasty league where you commit to 3-4 year contracts, who would you target: Mookie, Yordan, or Tatis.

Paul Sporer: Tatis/Mookie, then a level down to Yordan just bc of the knees. And I know both Tatis and Mookie have had their health issues in recent years, too, including last yr for Mookie, but I’m more worried about Yordan’s health in the long-term w/the knees

Different Greg: So this year I am jumping into the dynasty league world of fantasy baseball. Any advice for a first timer in a 12 team H2H?

Paul Sporer: So I don’t have the deepest dynasty league experience, but I’d try to win year 1. That doesn’t mean I’d ignore prospects and draft a buncha 35+ yr olds, but I’m also not loading up on teenagers. I’d rather go for guys in the 23-27 age range who can contribute this year than prospects who are a year-plus away. Simple fact is, you never know how long a league is going to last so if you’re already playing for 3 yrs out from day 1, you can find yourself super disappointed if it fizzles after 2

AL Central Casting: Thoughts on Riley Greene? Does he have another level to reach or is this what he is? $14 too much in a 12-team mixed with $260 budget (OPS instead of AVG)?

Paul Sporer: 14 def not too much, IMO. I think he could pair 2023’s AVG (.288) with 2024’s HR output (24) for a mega breakout. Staying healthy and registering his first 600+ PA season alone would be worth the $14

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, gotta keep it at a pretty tight hour today as I’m looking to get another SP rankings update out today. You can def reach out to me on socials to answer your questions though as there were a good handful in the queue I couldn’t get to today — Twitter | Bluesky

Paul Sporer: Have a good one, see y’all next week!