Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 20th, 2025
Transcript is now live!
| 1:02 |
: Thanks so much for coming to the chat! This Thursday time is just a one-off to coincide with my Prospect Week contributions. Check out my Re-Draft Prospect article: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-update-2025-re-draft-and-dynasty… and Top 150 Dynasty Prospect rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2025-fantasy-rankings?so… — and feel free to ask any questions about it here today. We got run a tight 50-55 minutes bc I have back-to-back podcasts lined up today, including my prospect deep-dive with Eric Longenhagen!! |
| 1:02 |
: Hey, Paul. I have two keeper spots remaining for a number of players. Who would you pick of Michael Toglia, Robbie Ray, Brayan Bello, Lars Nootbaar, Heston Kjerstad, Noelvi Marte and Heston Kjerstad? Lot of options in a 16-keeper league. Thanks! |
| 1:06 |
: Ooh interesting group. I do love Kjerstad, but he’s still on the outside looking in and I’m not sure where he breaks into the lineup without an injury. I’m leaning toward Nootbaar and Toglia here with Marte & Ray getting heavy consideration right behind them. Tough choices to be sure, but that’s where I land |
| 1:06 |
: Hey Paul, 14 team H2H keeper league. 40 player rosters with 10 player minors. Keep 26. I left myself with Turang as my SS last year and now I’m stuck. Been offered Bogaerts for my Arozarena. Thoughts? Should I squeeze for a little more? |
| 1:08 |
: I really have no problem with it as a 1-for-1, but if you can squeeze an extra little nugget, that’d obviously be great, too. Don’t push too hard that they take it off the table, though bc it’s solid straight up to address your SS depth |
| 1:08 |
: When will the Athletics finally bench Seth Brown, and who will fill his spot in LF? |
| 1:10 |
: Kurtz? |
Mostly tongue-in-cheek there as he has exactly 1 pro game in the OF, but I’d love if they explored that option to get Kurtz up sooner. A more serious answer: I’d definitely keep tabs on is | 1:13 |
: What would be the ideal lineup for the Mets opening day? How would you make the lineup if you were the manager? |
| 1:13 |
: 1 SS Francisco Lindor |
| 1:14 |
: and then Marte in for Winker vL |
| 1:17 |
: Nimmo would work leading off moving every down a spot, too, but I prefer Lindor/Soto getting the most PA |
| 1:17 |
: Parker Meadows worth keeping going into this year in roto? Colt Keith? |
| 1:17 |
: Both are in the right league, but definitely need specifics on league format |
| 1:17 |
: Is $47 too much to keep Mookie in a 12-team mixed (OPS instead of AVG) with a $260 salary cap? I have a couple other high-priced hitters as well – and my extreme stars-and-scrubs approach got me to the finals last year. But I’m a bit worried about some decline and think about spreading that money around a bit, though I love the position-eligibility. |
| 1:20 |
: I also love the pos. eligibility and Mookie is one of my favorite players, buuuutt I might just throw him back and see if I can save a few bucks rebuying him instead of locking him in. I do understand some of the decline concerns especially with him back at SS again but that tinge paired with just 116 gms last yr could bring him closer to $43-44 and save you a couple bones for your end game scrubs |
| 1:21 |
: 20 team deeeeeep keep forever league – Sending Steer and Albies for Vientos and Paredes, my team has a hole at 3B and Semien to slide in a 2B – and the waiver wire will be grim (like IKF level) Hard to lose Albies, but with injury concerns for him and Steer, and youth and potential big years from V and P, I think I take this…. thoughts? |
| 1:23 |
: You are sending away two of my fave players, but I still think it’s the right deal for your situation so I co-sign. I do share concerns on Steer’s health |
| 1:25 |
: How are you thinking about Clay Holmes as a starter? I think he’s got some interesting upside, but I’m worried about an innings cap. |
| 1:29 |
: I’m super intrigued and will be tracking him closely in Spring Training. He almost certainly won’t make 30 starts (nor does he have to since they’re running a de facto 6-man), but we’ve seen these veteran RP-to-SP conversions where they aren’t super limited IP-wise. If things are working well, I think he can push 125-130 IP which is definitely enough to make a big impact |
| 1:29 |
: Down to my last keeper decision. Around the same cost: Marcel Ozuna or Brent Rooker? Will Rooker see OF? It’s rough to keep two DHs (but I have two util spots). I’m tempted to keep them both as they are both cheap. |
| 1:32 |
: Rooker likely won’t get a ton of OF. He had 9 LF/5 RF last yr. It is tough to keep 2 DH-only guys, but if they’re cheap, I think you do it and see how it plays out. If you do decide to only go with one, Rooker is my choice in a minor league park |
| 1:32 |
: Grayson Rodriguez’s 2nd season ending lat strain in 2 years – wonder if his body can hold up. Have him as a minor league keeper (long story) but should I let him go for Kristian Campbell? |
| 1:33 |
: It’s hard to know how guys will evolve health-wise so I don’t think I’d cap GrayRod’s IP on the basis of the lat strains alone, that said, I thiiiink I’d go Kristian Campbell between the 2 as I generally favor hitter over pitcher when things are close and his stock is SKY-HIGH right now |
| 1:33 |
: I know it’s February, but does Spencer Steer having a sore shoulder affect his draft price for you? I just took him at pick 133 in a 15-team mixed league because I badly needed an OF but not thrilled with it |
| 1:34 |
: I have a tinge of concern, but I don’t mind that price point. It’s early enough that the shoulder could be an afterthought by Opening Day and I still like him in that park |
| 1:35 |
: Have a few mid to late round OF targets (ideally with power rather than just SB guys) you’re interested in if you miss out on OF in the first handful of rounds? |
| 1:41 |
: A couple from my Gold Digging series — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/gold-digging-building-a-team-after-pick-… Plus: I’m not quitting Jordan Walker or Evan Carter with late-200 something picks. Others of interest: Matt Wallner, Pavin Smith, Garrett Mitchell. |
| 1:42 |
: Do you have a general order of preference for the following young SS: Winn, Tovar, Volpe, Neto, Abrams, Perdomo, Edwards, Sweeney? |
| 1:45 |
: I think there’s a couple groupings here: Abrams/Volpe/Tovar/Winn then Neto (keep tabs on his recovery) and Edwards as a pairing. And then Perdomo/Sweeney. I’ve always loved Perdomo and his extension is a nice vote of confidence (though I wasn’t worried that Lawlar was gonna overtake him in Spring Training anyway) |
| 1:46 |
: Thoughts on James Anderson Taking 2 catchers in 4 rounds in your TOUT Draft ? |
| 1:48 |
: I’m a HUGE fan of the Contreraii so I co-sign! Willson is a non-catching catcher, too, w/his move to 1B so it’s not the same as taking 2 traditional C who will have their workloads managed just by virtue of catching |
| 1:48 |
: A follower up ; Please rank : Bibee, J.Ryan, H.Brown, Fried ? 12 T Roto |
| 1:49 |
: Fried/Bibee/Ryan/Brown with Fried firmly out front at #1 |
| 1:49 |
: Please rank : M.King , H.Brown, B.Miller ? 12 T Roto |
| 1:50 |
: Missed your first one, so posted ’em out of order — but King/Brown/Miller with King firmly out front. Fried/King definitely the top 2 of those 2 groupings |
| 1:50 |
: Traditional Roto/Dynasty 12 team. I picked up Bubba Chandler at the end of last year. Your thoughts on him this year? |
| 1:51 |
: Big fan and he can definitely win a spot out of camp. Check out some more detailed thoughts in my piece that went live today: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-update-2025-re-draft-and-dynasty… |
| 1:52 |
: I know Yelich is a risk with his back issues, but do you still consider him a solid #3 outfielder? |
| 1:54 |
: For sure as a #3! He’s been getting drafted more as a #2 in 15-teamers so if he’s your 3, you’re sitting pretty IMO. Definitely risk w/the back, but upside is still hot when he plays |
| 1:54 |
: What your go to projections for calculating Auction Values this time of year? |
| 1:55 |
: Not trying to waffle, but I usually cycle through most of the ones we have available. I gravitate toward The BAT X and the new OOPSY projections and of course Ariel’s ATC being a composite is great at getting the big picture |
| 1:55 |
: You buyin’ or sellin’ the Victor Robles breakout? |
| 1:56 |
: Tempered buy. I’m a long-time fan of his so my bias is with him, but I don’t want to get drunk off the hot streak to end last yr. Seattle is still a tough place to hit. That said, I don’t think pick 192 (his ADP over the last month) is bad, so if I need speed in that area, I’m willing to jump on him |
| 1:56 |
: I’m a big fan of your work. Thank you! Keeper League $200 dollar budget. Who 5 do you keep – Shohei as pitcher and hitter (69), Lindor (29) BDoyle (2) Vientos (2) Lawerence Butler (2) Pablo Lopez (7) Cole Ragans (3) Jacob Degrom (3) |
| 2:00 |
: Thanks for the kind words!! I think I’m passing on Shohei bc that’s very pricy for $200 budget and I just don’t expect anywhere near the SB output. And I’m not sure the pitching will be enough to offset it. Hard to let him go, but maybe you can buy him back for a few bucks cheaper. You just have too many good options beyond that, so gimme Lindor/Ragans/Doyle/deGrom and the 1 of Vientos/Butler. If you’re deadset on Shohei, then I’m going four low-dollar guys w/him: Doyle/Vientos/Butler/Ragans |
| 2:01 |
: Why is the industry seemingly in on Wallner? Feels like Gallo 2.0 with less walks, am I missing something? |
| 2:03 |
: He’s shown a lot more consistent BABIP upside than Gallo ever did so he hasn’t been near the AVG drain that Gallo always |
| 2:03 |
: Hey Paul! Always appreciate your work and advice. I am in a 28 player auction league ($260 cap). I traded $19 Burnes and $ 10 Pasquantino for $13 Pablo Lopez and $6 Caminero. How did I do? |
| 2:04 |
: This is a really nice trade. I can see the thought process for both sides, but I give you the slight edge w/a $6 Camy!! He has monstrous power upside and that could start paying handsomely for as early as this year and for years to come! |
| 2:05 |
: OK y’all, I gotta get going. I’ve got back-to-back podcasts to record. Justin and I will starting our 3B preview and then I’ll be talking to Eric Longenhagen about prospects similar to what we did 2 yrs ago! Take care and I’ll be back on Wednesday next week. This was a one-off Thursday chat |