Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 18th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out! Just dropped my Re-Draft Prospect article and Top 200 Dynasty Prospect rankings (which are on The BOARD!) – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-update-2026-re-draft-and-dynasty… – Take a look when you get a shot!

Austin Wells’s middle finger: How does your approach in a draft-and-hold change when going from a 15-team to 12-team format?

Paul Sporer: Fitting username there as I think you can push a catcher a little more and not get crushed. There’s still a bottom of the barrel and just because it’s higher in 12s doesn’t mean you’re OK taking the last 2 Cs off the board, but I’m less inclined to push my stud C up whereas in 15s, I’ve never been shy about a premium C. You’re going to have richer benches so you can open up the risk profile a bit, but I still wouldn’t limit the prospects and injury specs bc you still can’t add guys.

Matt: Lindor down right after the Ottoneu drop date. Feeling confident in him being back by the 2nd or 3rd week? Probably don’t need to go crazy with a backup at auction?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I wouldn’t bend over backwards. Get a boring starter maybe so you’re at least clocking volume if he does miss longer than expected?

Billy Marlin: So will Sandy return to form this year?

Paul Sporer: I’m betting on a good bit of good Sandy returning, yeah. I think we saw enough in his stuff to stay committed. He had some rough starts, but plenty of good ones, too. The core talent was still there and he made 31 starts!

Jane: Hi Paul, do you see B. Doyle bouncing back this year in COL?

Paul Sporer: I do, yes. I think last year was a washout with his family going through strife (he and his wife lost their baby ) and he did his best to grind through it. These guys are still humans and I can’t act surprised if hardship at home interferes with the on-field performance. Still a great glove securing his job and his raw skills still poked through with 15 HRs/18 SBs

KleShreen: Is 2026 KeBreezy’s breakout season?

Paul Sporer: I so badly want it to be. I will finally, 1000%, totally swear to be done if he can’t clock a 95-100 wRC+ for a full year in Cincy. 95!! I’ll take slightly below average bc in the leagues I play, they’re deep enough where that has some value, but anything short of that I will finally be ready to admit defeat! (No, I wasn’t deterred by 966 PA of 63 wRC+ for some reason, lol)

Braden Montgomery: Where am I?

Paul Sporer: Dude, ready to pop off, IMO. I’m so high on him. I’m not drafting him in redrafts bc I think he’s in-season, but give him 4-5 wks in AAA and then a nice May call-up! Gotta keep an eye on the Ks bc they are his kryptonite, but if he can live in the mid-20s, that’ll work given his power

Justin Mason: You are clearly the superior analyst between the two of us. I tip my cap to you. Also, how much trouble am I in if my only SP in nine rounds of a NFBC50 draft and hold is Logan Gilbert, and who should I target from now on?

Paul Sporer: Wow, thank you for finally admitting it! I wouldn’t worry about having just Gilbert thru 9. My loose plan this year is 2 hitters/8 hitters thru 10 before hammering pitching. Ideally it’s a starter and relief ace since SVs are so tough, but I’d be OK w/2 starters in some situations and then just makes SVs part of the “hammering pitching” instead of just SPs. As for targets, it’s wide open, Got a legit ace w/Gilby.

Could run a blank canvas upside (not entirely blank, but neither has a full season of MLB) play like Bubba Chandler or Trey Yesavage in that round 10 area or go with a deeper track record that still has upside in a Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Bibee sort of path. And there are ample names for both of those groupings in that round 10-14 range where I assume you’ll want multiple SPs, so don’t get hung up on the names, rather the concept of pitcher type.

Projections: Do you have a preferred projection system for either hitters or pitchers?

Paul Sporer: I use the The BAT X and OOPSY the most. Absolutely love having the whole suite on the player pages, though, that’s really the best so you don’t get pinned to one number — except in the cases where they all dead ass agree, then I guess you’re kinda pinned, but those are rare!

zeroSP: hey Paul – thoughts on running a zeroSP strategy in a 12 team 5×5 roto league? This would involve not drafting an SP in the top 100 picks or so

Paul Sporer: I’m with it, a bit more extreme than what I outlined above, but also done in an environment that can handle something more extreme. My plan is for a 15-teamer and I usually have a top 4 round pitcher, but I’d have no problem waiting those first 8-9 picks in a 12-teamer (depending where you slot) before entering the pitching pool. The opportunity to recover for busts will be higher w/the deeper waiver wire, too. I like it, good luck!!

Houzer: Real Tigers question! Who says no … Bryce Rainer for Brendan Doyle

Paul Sporer: I don’t hate in principle just in terms of each player’s value, but I think the Tigers are hoping that Parker Meadows can now just keep CF warm for Max Clark, who could be a Brenton Doyle in his own right. Without Clark emerging, perhaps CF would be a bigger need and yield a trade like. Doyle is the PERFECT Rockie, too, so they might even say no and it wouldn’t necessarily be wrong. Someone who can cover CF like that and still bring a bat is massive!!

Chuck: Oopsy definitely seems to be the outlier, especially on certain hitter types (hit ball hard, miss ball much). How do you make sure you don’t end up with a bunch of talented whiffers at the draft table?

Paul Sporer: Player knowledge, mostly. That’s just something that I try to be mindful of as I’m putting together a team. Am I getting too many of a player type that all require the same thing to go right and if that thing doesn’t come through (their raw power talent expressing into HRs and hits), you’re left w/some rough AVG sluggers

Sahil: How many innings do you think Drew Rasmussen pitches for the Rays this year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t get the impression that they’re trying to build him and instead would love to run 2025 back – 150 IP in 31 starts. Needs to stay healthy to clock 31, of course, but he’s a 2-times through guy

MF Luder: Is their anything in the 2025 Michael Busch season that indicates to you that he was on the lucky side of things? I don’t see anything…but I am just concerned about his value going into draft season

Paul Sporer: No, I really don’t. I’d be remiss not to mention that I’m a Busch guy dating back to his Dodgers prospects days so I’m likely inclined to see the rosier end of things, but a power guy who flexed the power we knew he had and didn’t have any crazy outlier metrics boosting him. A 21% HR/FB is high (16th in MLB) and played a role in getting to 34, but that’s part of having an outlier HR total. Of the 16 to hit at least 34 HRs last yr, they avg’d 24% HR/FB and only 2 were under 20%

All that to say, while it is an outlier metric, it’s not unsustainable. Even with some giveback on his Barrel and HardHit rates, his high-20s HR projection feels relatively safe with the upside to rip another 30+

Tim: Do you generally prefer keeping hitters to pitchers?

Paul Sporer: All things equal, I lean toward hitters. They can get hurt, too, but they don’t get hurt at the rate of pitchers. There is just inherently more volatility in the pitching market and it’s made hitters the safer keeper assets year over year. Doesn’t mean I won’t keep arms, but they really have to stand out to top a hitter!

Tim: Would you keep Devers as your fifth hitter or Greene as your second pitcher?

Paul Sporer: Oooh that’s a good one!!!

Paul Sporer: (What if I just said that and then onto the next question? )

Paul Sporer: That is really close, though. I think the context of 5th hitter v. 2nd pitcher really helps and gives me confidence to go with Greene. Straight up, I’m so torn that I probably revert back to my hitter lean as a tiebreaker. With 4 hitters in tow and a partner in crime for Greene, let’s bet big on the potential ace. I know his flaws and I was even out on him last year, but his HRs came all the way back and he was still a stud. I’d obviously rather he tamps down the HRs, but knowing he can succeed w/them is huge. Meanwhile, Devers first full year in SF is a little nerve-racking for someone who is an established stud

Paul Sporer: It is worth noting that Fenway Park is also quite difficult on lefty power, running an 87 Park Factor for LH HRs the last 3 yrs, but Oracle Park is nine points worse at 78! HRs aren’t the only thing, though. Devers at his best is a .275 AVG w/the occasional spike. This is where SF is really tough on him compared to Fenway, running a 98 Hits factor for lefties (16th), compared to Fenway’s 110 being 2nd to only Coors. I wonder if Devers is about to go into his Beltre-Seattle days (sans the HOF-level defense) where the park just masks one of the game’s better hitters

Jay: Keeper conundrum heading into the season: points league, keep 3 Yordan, Mookie, PCA, Machado, Hader. If it makes a difference to roster makeup, I have a late round Neto.

Paul Sporer: Pts league pushes me away from PCA/Hader as they are generally better roto types bc of SBs/SVs. Doesn’t make them worthless, espec. if your league actively pushes pt values for their specialties up to counter this usual value decline for those player types and obviously for PCA specifically, it hits like his 1st half self all or most of the year, he’s a monster in ANY format! At any rate, that leaves my 3 picks – Yordan, Mookie, Machado!

g4: Thanks for the article this morning! The 2026 projections for Jhostynxon are understandably less than thrilling. In your opinion, is he MLB-ready enough to pop this year?

Paul Sporer: That likely hinges on his ability to handle righties consistently. I’m not sure the PT is there everyday even w/a big spring, though, as 3 of their best players are in the OF – Reynolds/O’Neil/O’Hearn but he’s likely first man up for any OF opening

Mario: Jordan Walker, fixed?!?

Paul Sporer: First Ke’Bryan Hayes and now Jordan Walker — players Paul just can’t get theme today, huh? Ke’Breezy is admittedly straight up wishcasting, but Walker went to a third party training center to rework his swing so there is a tangible change to monitor in the spring. Even if his price surges (currently 330 ADP) on the heels of a huge spring, I doubt he becomes prohibitively expensive. One more year!!

Mario: which of these late round OF could actually be good… Moniak, Cowser, Canzone, Carter?

Paul Sporer: Hat tip to Cowser who I like a good bit as well, but gotta pick Evan Carter from this group. It’s more health than talent and while there are still no guarantees of health, I’ll bet on the 23 year old’s deep skills profile and hope he can swing at least 450 PA at pick-300.

Datt Mamon: Better long-term *fantasy* prospect: M. Clark or DeLauter?

Paul Sporer: Killer power can just deliver instantly for fantasy whereas Clark has a more well-rounded profile that might take a little time to start delivering big fantasy returns. At their 95th percentile, I’d take Clark as it’d be a .300-25-45 Corbin Carroll type beat, but looking more at 50-55th percentiles, DeLauter is a consistent 25+ HRs if he can find health. Speaking of, DeLauter’s health has been a nightmare coming up, but I still don’t think we can accurately predict long-term health enough push Clark ahead for me.

Taylor: What did Dominic Canzone bat against lefties last year? from what I found it was around around .275. is that correct? if so why is the assumption that he will be a platoon player?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he hit them well in 68 PA but that’s a tiny sample. The rest of his MLB work vL have been brutal resulting in a .221/.312/.295 in 109 PA – which is also a tiny sample, but it tracks w/the heavy split he’s shown throughout most of his minor league career. Meanwhile Rob Refsnyder’s MO is just hitting lefties, so they are a perfect platoon.

Roster manager: Why don’t teams just dump dudes onto the 60 day the minute its available instead of waiting around to acquire a player to take that 40 man spot?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really know, tbh!

cchase: Robert Garcia, Kevin Ginkel, Dennis Santana and Ryan Walker. Can you rank them for closers in a points league?

Paul Sporer: Santana | Walker || Garcia ||| Ginkel — those extra bars are there for emphasis. Just not sure I trust Garcia/Ginkel to even hold the jobs through Spring. I have more confidence that Santana and Walker will get a month or so to show what they’ve got so I trust them as more bankable closers

Houzer: Dylan Crews – doesnt a 20/30 season with a .255 BA seem in the cards for Crews?

Paul Sporer: I’m still fully in on him for this year. Didn’t launch last year, but no way I’m quittin off that — so yeah, it’s on the table for sure

Closer and closer: Hi Paul. Closer to keep (AL only) – Chapman ($10), Bednar ($10), or Kenley ($8)?

Paul Sporer: Chapman just doesn’t age (38 yrs old) and somehow posted a career-best 7% BB% last year, too, so it feels like I’m maybe overthinking it to look elsewhere, but I have a lean toward 31-year old Bednar who fully rebounded from his ugly 2024 with an excellent season

Heart of Darkness: Who would you keep (AL only, OBP league): Kurtz 27, Buxton 21, Rooker 11?

Paul Sporer: I’m taking Rook at half the price!!

Curt: NL keeper…CJ Abrams for W Adames & C Horton. Who wins?

Paul Sporer: Pretty fair deal overall, but I lean toward the duo

Platoon Value: Is someone like Rob Refsnyder actually worth drafting in Yahoo points leagues with daily lineups? Obviously being a short-side platoon bat is severely limiting but his numbers vs lefties are so insanely good that by micromanaging him and only playing him vs lefty starters I’d think there’s some value there based on his non-existent ADP

Paul Sporer: Better to strategically pick him up when a wave of lefties is coming v. drafting him or someone like him

Are we sure these aren’t the same player: Given the relative cost to acquire each, which of PCA, Luis Robert Jr, Michael Harris II, Ceddanne Rafaela most interests you? All four are POTENTIALLY five category studs that will get playing time because of good CF defense, but in practice all 4 have had horrendous plate discipline so at best they’re extremely volatile and at worst they’re the incredulous 47 wRC+ that Harris put up in the first half of 2025 (and I don’t buy the second half with its sky-high BABIP either). Is this player profile just generally not worth taking in standard 5×5 leagues despite the high ceiling?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, you’re dead on that it’s a remarkably overpriced profile type. The hits are excellent, but the misses really sting and are far more plentiful than I think we like to admit. I definitely try to avoid the high end guys like this. I know PCA is the easiest early fade candidate going after his 2nd half, but just bc it’s popular doesn’t mean it’s wrong. I hope he can put up a whole year of 1st half PCA, but I just don’t see it barring some major development at the dish. He could run crazy hot again like he did last yr, it’s just so hard to bet on it w/out the plate skills behind it

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! ICYMI at the beginning of chat I dropped my Re-Draft Prospect article and Top 200 Dynasty Prospect rankings (which are on The BOARD!) – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-update-2026-re-draft-and-dynasty… — Got an SP rankings update coming very soon, too!!