Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 15th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for comin out!

blerg: You seem pretty high on Jake Freely compared to the consensus. What are you seeing that you like?

Paul Sporer: I was a big Jake Fraley guy last year and he performed when he played. Injuries were the only issue. So I’m really just doubling down on last year’s love & hoping for some health luck

Ben: Thoughts on Robbie Ray and Lance Lynn this year?

Paul Sporer: Got em 43 and 31 ranked, respectively

Pedro: With the Montas news, what can we expect from Domingo German now that he has a cemented spot in the rotation?

Paul Sporer: Volatility given his persistent HR issues. If he’s keeping the bases clear, he can be a sub-4.00 ERA guy, but I can’t project him that low right now. I see a 4.20-4.40 type ERA

PB&Js: I don’t understand how Mondessi is buried so deep in ADP. What am I missing? Sure, trouble staying healthy and batting average fluctuation, but if he’s healthy he’s a top 40 player. If not healthy you don’t get much, but when you can pop him off the IL (assuming your league has one) you get stats for a bit at least. I see keeping him in the 100s because of that, but the 300s? Isn’t the risk/reward there?

Paul Sporer: “Trouble staying healthy” is a massive understatement. He never stays healthy. And he’s a bad hitter. The SBs are great and he’s finally not wildly overpriced in the market. He’s burnt ppl year after year, and we’re already hearing he won’t be ready for Opening Day… his 234 ADP makes sense to me and if anything, might be a little too high still

Buff: Will Myers or Trey Mancini, NL only keeper?

Paul Sporer: Wil Myers for me. Love that park. If he spikes some health, there’s a huge season on the horizon

Tyler: Given the wasteland at 2b, how much of a boost does Nico Hoerner get when he gets that position eligibility?

Paul Sporer: The upper end of 2B isn’t great, but I don’t think it’s a wasteland and I don’t think Nico is that much better than those already qualified at 2B in his ADP range (Gleyber, Muncy, Polanco, Estrada, Lowe, India)

Billy Hamilton: With the bases and throw over changes for the upcoming season do you see a bigger rise in steals coming from your top line speedsters or from your 10 – 15 steal per year players who may be more apt to take advantage being as they often tend to be the more cerebral players vs simply athletically gifted?

Paul Sporer: It’s really hard to know. I don’t think it’s cut-and-dried for either side. Some big speedsters will likely add a bunch of steals and some of those more smarts-over-speed base stealers will add 50-60% to their normal totals.

Corbin Carroll: The projections for my rookie year are eye-popping. Are you buying or selling — both this year and long term?

Paul Sporer: His minor league numbers were just so bananas. I’m selling at his price right now as I think there will be some growing pains, especially with the struggles v. lefties

Magic: Are you steering completely clear of Clevinger this draft season?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, easy pass for me

Buff: Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 or Thairo Estrada, NL only keeper?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Kim fan!

Joe: Would you be concerned with a top 4 of Woodruff, Darvish, Rasmussen, and Gonsolin?

Paul Sporer: Would need to know the league settings for sure, but at first blush, no. That’s 4 of my top 50

Broken Bat: I enjoy following your observations and forecasts. I also have developed the sense that you relay on your visual more than formulas like PECOTA or maybe BATS etc. is this correct? If not, what forecasting  formula do think is best for #1. Pitchers #2. Position players?

Paul Sporer: Yes, that is true. I don’t have a set formula that spits out my numbers. I have been doing my projections by hand meaning I go into every player profile and work off a base then tweak up or down based on skills & playing time. I’m a big fan of the BATs (The BAT & BAT X) and would definitely say that’s my favorite system. Jeff has been doing some excellent pieces identifying the best performing systems and he’s going to start digging into the pitching soon

Daro: I have Manoah and L Castillo as keepers. Need to keep another SP: Ray or Luzardo. My team is in win now mode.

Paul Sporer: I have Ray & Luzardo pretty close in my rankings with Ray higher and I would lean that way for you, too, as you being in win-now can use team context as the tiebreaker and the M’s should be a good bit better than the Marlins this year, raising Ray’s win expectations by a decent margin

Deltabreaks: You buying any Topps Series 1 baseball cards? Riley Greene rookie cards!!

Paul Sporer: I haven’t copped any yet, but I would like to snag a Greene rookie before the season starts in case he goes off and his prices soar

miratutti: better sleeper pick: Nick Pratto or Esteury Ruiz?

Paul Sporer: I like Pratto. I talk about this concept a lot where the fantasy community dumps a prospect if they don’t hit immediately and they become a big time bargain. Pratto definitely falls into that category after his underwhelming debut. He doesn’t have a spot right now, unlike Ruiz, but he’s a much better hitter overall. I understand the Ruiz SB appeal, but he seems like a 1-category guy on a bad team.

Oh Oh Oh Ohtani: Am I crazy to keep Ohtani at $57 (10 team AL only OBP with daily moves)? I can only keep 4, but he’s just so g-d fun.

Paul Sporer: No, I’d imagine that price is just fine when considering inflation and miiighti even still be a relative discount

Guest: Opinion on TB bullpen? Does Fairbanks become the guy?

Paul Sporer: I really like Fairbanks this year and Justin & I had a pretty big debate about him on our AL RP pod: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1137-20… I think now that he’s paid, he’s going to get a real shot at being the A-guy for saves and getting a real shot at =>25 this year. He will no doubt still come in to face the heart of the order in the 8th sometimes and then maybe Adam comes in for the SV or something, but if Fairbanks is healthy, I think he’s the dude

Joe: Loving the projections on the pod, but wondering how you feel about changing them up on the fly. I know you both are convincing each other at times, but does that concern you about your overall process?

Paul Sporer: Concern me how?

Paul Sporer: I understand the folks who run a full-on system aren’t going to make changes on the fly bc they have a vetted system, but when you’re doing them by hand, I don’t see a problem being open to new info and making adjustments when you think you made an error. I’m not married to these numbers as an end-all, be-all

Duchess: Scooping any shares of late round Leody Taveras?

Paul Sporer: Oh definitely! I’m still in on him… and it’s funny to even say “still” bc he’s 24, but I’ve been on the Leodys train for a couple years already. If he can just be a 90 or better wRC+, I think that’ll be enough to stick in the lineup and pile up SBs with a handful of HRs

Francisco Alvarez: How do you feel about me for a late round?

Paul Sporer: I’m a little tepid on him. I’m nervous about the playing time and generally don’t love betting on rookie Cs in general. He’s UT-only on NFBC which will be remedied relatively early into the season, but does create a little bit of a headache at the draft table in their leagues with just 7 reserves. I’ll still take him Draft Champions leagues (50-round Draft & Hold) knowing he’ll get the C elig.

Magic: Which of your projections or rankings has surprised you the most?

Paul Sporer: Surprised I was a good bit higher than the market on Marcus Semien as he wound up a top 20 hitter despite not hitting a HR for the first month of the season last year. I’m way higher than Jeff & Justin On C.J. Cron despite really just seeing more of the same from him which has me curious where their projections are on him. I’m way lower than those 2 on Anthony Santander which surprised me bc I’m not anti-Santander and have a veritable repeat for him, too. My guess would be they see some AVG improvement after the .248 BABIP

Magic: Am I smoking in Amsterdam to think Vinnie P settles in as a 30+ bomb guy?

Paul Sporer: No, I think it’s possible. Not making it my projection, but it’s in the range of outcomes

Kyle: When you die, do you want a seam-shifted wake?

Paul Sporer: I won’t settle for anything less

Hopeful Reds Fan: Odds Jose Barrero carves himself a somewhat consistent role on the rebuilding Reds? Feel like Newman isn’t a huge deterrant

Paul Sporer: I waaaaant to believe, but he’s given his NOTHING to be hopeful about in his 298 MLB PA. And that’s a small sample, but the plate skills are HORRENDOUS (40% K, 4% BB) and he had similar issues at AAA last yr, too (38%, 5%). I’d take a shot in a Draft Champions bc he’s dirt cheap (678 ADP), but my overall expectations have been substantially lowered for a guy that I really liked the last couple seasons

The 6ix: Will ZiPS DC be adjusted for injuries and trades before the season? Thinking Montas, AJ Puk etc.

Paul Sporer: Not entirely sure on that. Hit up Dan on Twitter for clarification there https://twitter.com/DSzymborski

JH: How much does Nick Gordon play this year, and how do you think he performs?

Paul Sporer: I think he carves out 400+ PA as a super utility and works his way to a double-double. And he’s the primary option to gain for just about any long-term injury and could be a true waiver wire gem with 500+ PA

Branguish: Taylor Ward.

Paul Sporer: I love him so much!

Mordecai Brown: Do you think Hunter Greene will have a breakout year?

Guest: What caliber of player should I target while shopping Hunter Greene?

Paul Sporer: There is certainly a good chance for it. His talent is unquestioned, but there is volatility with the command which can be exacerbated by his home park (1.7 HR/9). If the command is more consistent, he can be an absolute stud. I’ve got him SP36 at 3.67 ERA/1.21 WHIP so I’m on board

Steven: Nick Martinez is currently listed on Roster Resource as San Diego’s SP5. You didn’t rank him. Are you assuming he’ll end up in the bullpen? If he stuck in the rotation, where would you rank him?

Paul Sporer: No no that’s an olllldddd SP rank, he’ll be on the new one coming v soon. I know I said it was coming soon last time, but promise it’ll be worth the wait with what we’ve got comin for rankings!

Paul Sporer: I’ve got him SP82 right now

Duchess: Who ends up with the most saves in LAA?

Paul Sporer: I’m on the Carlos Estévez train!

Punk in drublic: Do you think Tony Gonsolin is worth keeping at $10 in a NL only league (cap 260)? He had a very good year LY but it seems all the projections are really down on him.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think so. Even with the most negative projection (Steamer), he comes just over $8 in NL Only per the auction calculator and I think he’s better than their 4.39/1.33 projection

Duchess: Dollar flyer round: You going after Whitlock or Trevor Rogers?

RGM: Thoughts on Garrett Whitlock becoming a Top 40 pitcher this year?

Paul Sporer: I’m going back to the Rogers well with the discount after last year’s struggles. I’m intrigued by Whitlock and open to drafting him, but not sure I see Top 40 just yet. Gotta see how he holds up to 5-6 IP outings over several months (we saw some 5s & 6s last year, but just a month’s worth)

Kate: I’m shocked how high the industry seems to be on Oscar Gonzalez.  Super high o-swing (no walks), hits the ball on the ground a ton, and no steals despite good sprint speed.  He’s also a bad defender.  This seems like way too much risk for only a moderate ceiling.  What do you think sporer?

Paul Sporer: Fully agree and underscored those concerns on our 2nd OF preview pod – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1131-20… His 180 ADP isn’t terrible, but he’s a popular sleeper for folks and I’m not in on that given his profile

The 6ix: Chris Bassitt: tougher ballpark, AL East, high road ERA – is he a stay-away?

Paul Sporer: Not a *must* stay-away, but I’m down on him v. the market so probably won’t wind up with him too much. He only had a 4.00 ERA on the road last year which isn’t exactly bad, but it’s an overall tougher environment for a guy in his mid-30s. I have him more in line with his 2019 when he put up a 3.81/1.19 (3.92/1.19 for my projection)

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, I have to get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions there. Have a good one, y’all!