Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 11th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!!

BMK: Howdy!

Paul Sporer: Hi!!

T-Bone is the villain: Do we think the Green Monster will completely screw Durbin’s power, or will the increase in doubles and babip, etc make up for the probably HR dip?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think it will definitely eat up some of his HRs, but the trade off could easily be a substantial AVG boost (10+ pts) as he just peppers the Monster with 1Bs/2Bs

Troy Melton’s Broken Pathway: What are your thoughts on the Tigers rotation upgrades this week? …and Reese Olson 🙁

Paul Sporer: SUPER bummed about Olson as a mega fan of his, but otherwise feeling really good about the rotation even if my other fave – Troy Melton – has a bit of a road in front of him to winning a spot even after the Olson inj. Here’s my look after the JV signing: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:oprhejnhldyxh3fm7t5ychwo/post/3mekdnb…

Guest: Do you think you and Justin will do any livestreams where both of you are in a draft together? Those are awesome streams!

Paul Sporer: Ooh, I’ll see if we can get in a draft together in March and stream it together. Maybe we do a Beat Justin & Paul Rotowire OC over at NFBC where us and 10 others tangle. I’ll see if I can get that done!

nells: Why isn’t Bryan Woo talked about in the top tier? And do you think injuries is the only thing holding hunter greene back from that tier?

Paul Sporer: Some definitely are putting Woo up there and they are… CORRECT! The market sees him going at SP9 and he just missed my top tier at 11 (I went 10 deep) but as I look at it, I think I need to make the move even if it’s more symbolic than a fundamental change. Comparing him to another fave of mine makes clear that if Hunter Brown is gonna be in the Top 10, Woo has to be, too. As I compare their 2024-25, it’s clear to me so look for that change for Woo in my next update. https://i.imgur.com/TUcxAZa.png

Paul Sporer: And yes, Greene’s injuries and valid concerns about his rampant HR rates keep some cautious, but I’ve come around. He doubled the HR rate from 24 to 25 and still dominated. He has realistic #1 overall SP upside and you just can’t say that about TOO many SPs.

Hopeful Rose: Speaking of hot corner transactions; do you think Isaac Paredes gets traded? What would be his ideal fantasy landing spot in your opinion?

Paul Sporer: It’s unfortunately already been filled – Boston. Thought they might check in on him for their 3B needs but then went for Caleb Durbin instead. I can’t think of who else has a big 3B need off the dome as I was laser-locked on Boston being the premium 3B target

Keep me: In a keeper league, standard settings, would you tend to prioritize hitters over pitchers?

Paul Sporer: Yes, hitters are just generally more bankable than arms in the aggregate and as such they make for better keepers. Doesn’t mean I won’t keep any Ps, but tie goes to the hitter for sure

Pete: who do you think will have a better 2026 season…Emmet Sheehan or Trey Yesavage?

Paul Sporer: Sheehan for sure. I like Yesavage long-term but think he’s far from a finished product despite the scintillating playoff run. I really hope the Dodgers give Sheehan a real run at SP, too

RP 1: How differently would you treat the closer market in something like a 12tm h2h league vs roto? The ADPs for closers are so high!

Paul Sporer: Don’t forget that the ADPs are built in Draft Champions leagues where you have to get all your SVs in-draft. This is a perfect day for you to send this msg bc we just shifted over the ADP on Fangraphs to Online Championship data which is a 12-team roto league w/standard waivers so one of the biggest changes we’ll see is RP prices going down. Chad did a great piece highlighting that and some of the others differences – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/updating-nfbc-adp-data-on-fangraphs/

Paul Sporer: As for you H2H v. Roto — I assume H2H categories where SVs are still directly needed as opposed to pts where they help but not necessary. The week at a time nature of H2H does allow you to play a little looser w/SVs but I’d still want my relief ace within those first 6 rounds or so. I’m likely to wait on the second, then maybe a spec in reserve, and play the wire after that. A 12-team roto w/waivers, I’d be a little more aggressive in getting my closer ace plus a viable 2nd (someone in, say, the top 12-14). Closers in roto waivers tend to cost more than H2H cats as I think we see more SV punters in H2H, but that’s anecdotal

Chuck: How far if at all are you knocking Corbin Carroll down with the sapping of power hamate?

Paul Sporer: I’m SOOO bummed about this one as I just loved him as a mid-1st rd target. Hamate bones been causing havoc for so long. There was a moment several years ago – similar to this wk tbh – where SO many guys were breaking their hamate and then it kinda went away. Not that is NEVER happened, but it wasn’t as rampant until this year’s flare up. At any rate, I’ve experienced enough players going through to not be overly optimistic on the outlook so Carroll drops outta the first for me. He’s a speed demon but he does pop to his all those 2B/3B/HR.

Dave: Do you think the “screw it, we’re going for it” nature of the last week’s worth of Tigers’ moves (I have to presume the ghost of Mike Illitch temporarily inhabited Chris’s body…) gives us any tea leaves to read re: McGonigle’s or Clark’s chances to be on the roster early this year?

Paul Sporer: I do believe that, yes. They pushed hard on the pitching while only re-signing Gleyber on the hitting end in an effort – IMO – to leave clear paths for for McGonigle and Clark to crack the roster early in the season, if not outright break camp (admittedly less likely as neither has hit AAA yet).

BMK: In one of my dynasty leagues someone asked for my Nick Kurtz for his Konnor Griffin. I don’t know what to think. I think it’s crazy for a prospect with only 100 PA’s above A ball to be valued this highly. On the other hand, if he’s actually a top 5 fantasy asset the next 10+ years, Kurtz really can’t reach that hight with his profile. What do you think? (5×5 league, + OPS and QS’s. 12 team, keep 15 players forever, no penalty)

Paul Sporer: I get the ask as Griffin is the #1 prospect with a profile that will put him in contention for the best player in fantasy if he pans out as expected. Of course, that’s the upside, not the guarantee. He could also be mediocre or even bad (though that’s a low % outcome assuming injuries don’t ravage him and alter his skills). This feels like a bird in hand v. 2 in the bush situation. Even understanding that there is some regression concern for Kurtz given his swing-and-miss, he already has a monster season under his belt and still plays in an MiLB park! Unless you’re loaded at 1B and have the luxury to trade a now piece for a future one, I’m inclined to hold Kurtz

BMK: Is Murakami the #1 FYPD pick in dynasty leagues? I understand the crazy K risk, but the upside of 80 grade power if he can keep the K’s below 30% like in Japan offers a profile nobody else can offer. NPB is AAAA anyway no? How is he not a better prospect than say, Bryce Eldridge?

Paul Sporer: Do you have that #1 pick? Would you be taking your Kurtz replacement??? I generally lean hitters over pitchers as I outlined in that keeper question earlier, but in this FYPD, I’d take Imai over Murakami. Okamoto is also safer. Definitely a lower power ceiling, too, but definitely a higher overall floor with his plate skills

Jane: Hi Paul, who should my last keeper be in 14-team h2h 5×5? Can you rank Musgrove, Tolle, and Nola? thanks again, Paul.

Paul Sporer: It feels crazy to recommend the guy who missed all of 2025, but I’m going Musgrove over Nola. I like Tolle, but he’s a bit buried right now so I’d focus on the guys more likely to make a bigger impact in 2026

Lance: Is Mayo really going to stick with O´s? He is probably going to be a corner jnfield/spot of if he sticks?

Paul Sporer: Still feels like he needs a trade, especially after the Pete Alonso signing. Barring injuries of course, it seems to come down to Basallo v. Mayo for DH. Roster Resource currently has Samuel Basallo slotted in at DH and Mayo heading back to AAA. Mayo likely needs a trade, but absent that, he could definitely use a big Spring Training performance to hopefully yoink that DH spot. He has 852 (very good) PA at AAA, just not sure there’s much more there for the 24 y/o Mayo – so trade or DH spot!

ham8: If you get hammate surgery, will you type with one hand or turn to dictation? No IL stints!

Paul Sporer: LOL, I’ll def skip the IL and go full one-handed hunt & peck

Hamate injuries: There was a medical study published in 2018 that showed no significant loss in isolate power to hitters coming back from hamate fractures. Is there a more recent analysis you know of that shows otherwise?

Paul Sporer: Maybe that’s why we aren’t seeing as much panic about as before. I did find an updated analysis from just today which makes sense for MLB.com to post the article on the heels of all the news and it has 81% recovering well:

Does the surgery produce good outcomes?
For the most part, yes. A 2020 study in the American Journal of Sports Medicine included 261 professional players and found that 81 percent returned at the same or higher level.

However, that doesn’t completely alleviated my Carroll concerns. How long until the 81% is back to their previously established levels? It’s a baseline 4-8 wk recovery (which is a pretty wide window) and then how much gameplay until they’re back back (not doing a Berman imitation there)? I won’t run from Carroll or Lindor upon return as I was aware that the hamate doesn’t crater your power forever, but I am still severely downgrading drafting them as I’m not willing to give up the time they’ll miss w/out a substantial discount. Great reference to that study, though!  EDIT AFTER CHAT TO ADD LINK TO PIECE I REFERENCED: MLB.com

Paul Sporer: Good to underscore that hamates aren’t power DESTROYERS. They’re a severe inconvenience for the short-term, but not the end of the world long-term.

Mitch: Was Michael Harris’ second half anything to get excited about?  Or just his standard streakiness and he is who he is?

Paul Sporer: The latter for me. I’ve always been soft on Harris compared to the market, so keep that in mind, but plate skills like this breed inconsistency (free swinger who whiffs too much to walk that little). He has loud skills for fantasy and he’s still just 25, so a huge season is possible as he’s been a 20-20 per 600 PA guy despite his solid-if-unspectacular 106 wRC+ so imagine if he runs a .350 BABIP for a year with like a 5.5-6% BB (which isn’t even good but would be a big upgrade on his 4% career and 3% from last yr). We’re finally down at a price point I don’t hate (106 ADP in L20 Draft Champs) as even a repeat is worth that and you can dream on like a 25-40 type season as a 95th percentile sort of outcome.

South Sider: Which side of this trade do you prefer for an OBP league? Skubal for Ragans and Yordan

Paul Sporer: I adore Skubal and think Yordan’s knees are 38 yrs old but I would still do this deal for Ragans/Yordan. Skubal’s better than Ragans, but not Yordan better. Even an injury-struck 100 gm season from Alvarez is worth more than the difference b/w two lefty arms

South Sider: If price is not a concern, how do you rank these three in a 6×6 league (OBP, SLG, no AVG) this year and over the next five years?  Gunnar, Carroll, Caminero

Paul Sporer: Corbin/Gunnar/Caminero. SLG being counted helps Cami close the gap between the other two, but their speed keeps him a clear third

haderade: Josh Hader might not be ready for opening day. How deep a discount would you need to buy, or is it an opportunity?

Paul Sporer: Honestly, I’d take a couple round discount and then just bust Bryan Abreu up the board a bunch to cover. If things are worse than we think w/Hader, I’ve got the guy in Abreu. If they’re better, I just cut Abreu early into the season. Initially, I’m not TOO bothered by this w/Hader. March drafters will have more info so it’ll be easier to know how much time he’s expected to miss, but if you’re drafting in the near-term, take the discount as he creeps toward 100 and hit the handcuff in Abreu. Might be a sneaky way to get premium saves at a non-premium price

Chris: Hey Paul – One thing I’ve always wondered. What metrics/data do you look to when deciding on adding a player mid-season? In the past, I have just looked at if the guy was “hot” and fit a position of need, but this always leads to a lot of turnover on my roster (and tough when our league only allows 3 moves a week). Is it just a gut feeling? Or do you go over some data to see?

Paul Sporer: Core skills – plate approach (K, BB, SwStr), power and speed metrics. How do those factors against whatever numbers but them on my radar in the first place and then from there, are they going to keep playing? We don’t usually get much sample to go off of these days so you’ll be wrong plenty, but that’s OK. We’re dealing with small samples and incomplete info, so you can’t be 100% correct!

DJ: While Imai and Ponce understandably get the attention in FYPDs as being ready made MLB starters, do you think Foster Griffin and Ryan Weiss are being slept on a bit?

Paul Sporer: I sure do, and possibly Drew Anderson with my Tigers. No spot for him right this moment after the JV signing, but he impressed overseas, too. The whole NPB/KBO back to MLB group this year has some deep league intrigue for me

colorado of: any preference between doyle or beck?  thanks

Paul Sporer: I lean Doyle. Last yr stunk, but he was dealing with some off the field awfulness and these guys are still human! Even w/the major issues, he still went 15 HR/18 SB so I think his 23/30 from 2024 is definitely in play for 2026

Forever Ferrer: Will Jose Ferrer get any saves this year in Seattle? Id he #3 or #2 in the bullpen?

Paul Sporer: Probably a couple here and there, but Brash is likely the #2 behind Muñoz!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, great stuff! Got another SP update coming soon, though it’s a sad one as it’s laced w/all the injury news we’ve gotten the last couple days. Take care and talk to y’all next week at this time!!