Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – December 14th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon everyone, thanks for coming out!

BlueJayMatt: Is Justin OK today?

Paul Sporer: Probably better than a lot of Giants fans since he doesn’t love Correa that much anyway, but it has to be at least somewhat alarming for Giants fans bc there is no one left to spend big bucks on at this point and it’s not like they can trade for a centerpiece given their system

Max: What’s your KDS strategy in 15 team drafts this year? Where do you want to be drafting?

Paul Sporer: I really like the ends (1st/2nd, 14th/15th), I’m most comfortable there, but I’m not averse to a late-middle (9th or later) as I think the 1st rd is deep and I like what is there in the 2nd/3rd in those spots

Guest: Hey Paul, thanks for the Chat. In an 12tm H2H 8×8 OBP league where I can keep 6, my final keeper decision comes down to Wander Franco or Adley Rutschman. Who would you keep? Thanks

Paul Sporer: Tight battle, is there no way to keep both?? If it’s gotta be 1, I’m going Adley

Chip: Is Aaron Ashby a starter this year? And if he is, is he fantasy relevant?

Paul Sporer: Will have a spot to start the season and short of a collapse, there’s a real shot for 30 starts this year. Highly volatile with his poor command, but the upside is very rich with the swing-and-miss capability.

Salty: Hey Paul – catching up on the pods and you mentioned the Colton/Wolf plan to fade players in their first year of a mega-contract, which is understandable considering the pressure that can bring.  Do you think the same applies with the Mets signings, or since they signed so many at once, guys like Verlander/Correa/Nimmo will have much less implied pressure to feel like they need to “carry the team”?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t include Nimmo as much since he’s staying where he was and while he is now paid, I don’t think the potential pressures are the same. As for the multiple guys factor, i do wonder if they take that into consideration. Though, even if it’s not a “carry the team” thing, there is still a big “earn my keep” factor after they sign which can lead to pressing in year 1. BTW, it’s obviously not universal as plenty of guys have great years in Y1 of a big deal, but I just tend to use it as a negative tiebreaker opting for the guy not on Y1 of a huge deal. That said, JV is my favorite pitcher ever so I’ll likely break the rule for him lol

Jack: I’m skeptical the Rays are going to put kid gloves on Glasnow. They signed him to a two year deal and know the figures now. I feel extremely confident he will be traded after the first year of that deal (or at the deadline if the rays somehow suck) so I don’t think they care if he breaks after year one. I’m not projecting 200 innings or anything, but I think 160 isn’t out of the question.  Rays always trade their aces, James shields, Price, Archer. Their top starters never make it to free agency (don’t invest in a mclanahan jersey!) Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I also don’t think they are going to baby him. If he’s healthy, he’s pitching. I’d be surprised if he’s heavily IP-managed when healthy. Staying healthy has been the challenge, of course, but I agree with you on taking the kid gloves off this year & pushing him a bit

Bobbo: The Giants sent out their spring training ticket sales email blast this morning at 10am.  That would have been pretty great timing had they not missed their self-imposed deadline to sign Correa’s contract yesterday and cancelled his press conference.

Paul Sporer: Wow! Could you imagine buying season tix and stuff or getting a custom Giants jersey with his name on it before all this? I doubt official MLB sites allowed you to get Correa Giants until it was final-final, but I imagine some folks will have custom made Correa Giants jerseys… such a WILD situation

Jack: The giants should just go bananas on short term deals with the freed up payroll. Conforto, Gary Sanchez, Segura, Kimberly and why not put a cherry on top and sign Jose Iglesias?

Paul Sporer: It’s all that is out there, so it might not be a bad idea to just stock a bunch lottery-ish tickets (more like the $1 scratchers than the $20 ones given the caliber of talent) and hope to get a bunch $5 returns (keeping w/the lottery ticket analogy)

Guest: over/under 400 ABs for Miguel Vargas?

Paul Sporer: It is so hard to know bc the Dodgers are always a candidate to make a big move (this would have to be via trade at this point) so I lean over right now, but at the same time wouldn’t be surprised if they ripped Boston off again and got Devers somehow lol. Although maybe this time Boston would want an actual good return and they’d get Vargas which would then push it back over 400. Bottom line is I’m drafting him in winter lgs at this current ADP (~300 ADP)

Guest: Thanks Paul on the Adley vs. Wander question. My other 5 keepers were Top 20 players from last year. I guess the other two could be Scherzer and Verlander but they could be the anchors of a great pitching staff. Would you keep Wander over either of those pitchers?

Paul Sporer: No I’m down to keep the 5 Top 20 gems. I figured you had some insanity if it came down to those 2 for the last spot

Vic: Will S Frelick be last year’s S Kwan?

Paul Sporer: Not a bad comparison, though I’m not sure Frelick has a guaranteed spot right now. But upon arrival, high contact & speed are definitely Frelick’s best skills

Jim: Who would you keep (just 1) between degrom, f. freeman and betts.

Paul Sporer: I lean Betts in a very tight choice

Jack: based on some of these free agent deals, it makes the Javy Baez deal seem more palatable no?

Paul Sporer: Honestly, yes. It’s more on par with the Dansby deal and while I was very much interested in Correa for the Tigers and wouldn’t have been mad w/the SF or NYM deals for DET, this offseason has certainly taken some sting off the Baez deal

Kate: How does the Correa addition affect Baty’s role for this year?  Is he a trade chip now?  Or will he have to wait for an injury of underperformance amongst Correa, McNeil and the OF corner guys?

Paul Sporer: Most chatter I’ve seen this morning is Baty learning OF, otherwise yes, he is a trade chip. I liked Justin’s idea of something around Baty/Alvarez for Devers prior to this Correa move. I know they’re talking to the White Sox about Hendriks, but I feel like Baty is too much for him. That said if the White Sox can get that, then they should!

Guest: 12-team keeper league – pick 2 of these 4 to keep for the minimum: Wright, Singer, Kirby, Lodolo

Paul Sporer: Ooh interesting group! Kirby is the lock for me with Wright/Lodolo battling for the 2nd spot. I’d probably just use the team context as a tiebreaker, espec. since ATL/CIN are so far apart. So Kirby/Wright for me.

Mike: What are your expectations for Kyle Wright this year? Continued success? Step backwards?

Paul Sporer: Almost certainly pulling back on his dollar earnings bc 21 wins will be very hard to pull off again. I’ve got him around a mid-3.00s ERA and low-1.20s WHIP, too, both up from last year. So a definite dip, but i don’t think he’s too expensive given his breakout year (ADP around 110)

Vic: Anyone other than Burnes and Cole make your Top 2?

Paul Sporer: I had McClanahan 2 ahead of Cole, but I’ve vacillated quite a bit on Cole-McClanahan-deGrom-Sandy in that 2 spot. Really torn who to place behind Burnesy

Kate: How do you feel about Muncy going into 2023?  Felt like he got healthy and back on track in the second half this year.  Are you expecting a return to normalcy for him this year?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m back in! I was 100% out last year bc of the elbow and definitely don’t regret that. He closed as the Muncy we know & love, though. Last 2 mos. — .247/.358/.500 with 12 HR in 226 PA (37 HR/113 RBI full season pace). Very fairly priced around ADP 160, too!

Jack: Everyone that purchased Giants season tickets between the Correa signing and now should all receive a small lock of Tim Lincecums hair, and  get to rub Barry Bonds bald head at a time of their choosing.

Paul Sporer: LOOOOL, it’s only fair!!!!

Paul Sporer: brb–gotta use the restroom!

Jung Bong Jovi: No question for me this week, but just here to wish you a happy holidays and thank you for all that you do!

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much! Happy holidays to you and everyone who comes through & reads the chat (including my transcript readers!)

Say Hey: How do you feel about Seth Brown this year? Between the statcast data and chipping in a few steals, I feel like he’s a great bang for the buck at that point of the draft. You feeling him at all?

Paul Sporer: If I can do a tiny back pat here, I was quite big on him last year and loved what he delivered! You nailed why I’m still on this year: bang for buck. Obviously it’s a terrible team so make sure you can cover his R/RBI deficiencies, but the pop with 7-12 SB (that’s a wide range, but I think you have to be open to a wider range on guys like him) definitely works after pick 200. More expensive than last year, but still not expensive. And throws in dual eligibility to boot with 1B/OF

Jack: Joes iglesias should just book a flight to San Fran now and camp outside of   Farhan Zaidis office building until he walks in tomorrow morning. Extra kudos is he sets up a campfire and has a hot cup of Joe waiting for Farhan. That’s how you do business in 2022.

Paul Sporer: lololol, hey at least the defense would be good!

Kate: What do you make of Stanton in a dynasty OBP context at this point?  Monster barrel rates and still gets on-base at a solid clip.  As long as you have IL slots to spare and some depth in OF, he still seems like a solid upside play, no?  How long do you think he’ll maintain OF eligibility?

Paul Sporer: I think “veteran upside” is an underrated notion in the fantasy game and someone like Stanton definitely falls into the category as I don’t see any reason he can’t repeat 2021 in any given healthy-ish season (139 G in ’21). As you mentioned, he still smacks the piss outta the ball — well you weren’t that crass with it — and given that, his .227 BABIP should be a pretty big outlier to the negative, especially as he isn’t one of those power hitters with like a 50% FB rate, either, so I think .250/.340/.500 is perfectly reasonable for him with the potential for even more. NYY would likely prefer this to be his last OF-elig. season meaning he’d get fewer than 20 gms out there this year

Guest: Baty to DH/LF; Mauricio/Vientos for pitching prospects?

Paul Sporer: They also have 900 catchers so that gives them some more trade capital. I prefer keeping Baty, too… unless they want to trade him to Detroit for.. whatever. Just gimme Baty! lol

Colton: Currently shopping a catcher right now, Varsho, Melendez, Alvarez. Which one would you be most likely to move on from between them?

Paul Sporer: Melendez. He’s the right combo of being good with interest in the trade market. Varsho checks both those boxes, too, but I just love him and would rather not trade him. Meanwhile, I do worry the 4000 catchers in NY would ding Alvarez’s trade value right now.

Anonymous: For standard 5×5: would you rather have the skipper batting your star hitter(s) leadoff or 2nd/3rd?

Paul Sporer: 2/3 for RBI purposes. I like the extra PA atop the lineup, but it’s hard to drive in many guys. There are only 11 seasons of 90+ RBIs from the leadoff spot since integration. (21 batting 2nd, and tons batting 3rd)

Randy: Do you think that J. Pena is a regression risk? His O-contact is terrible; any chance that he can improve this aspect of his game?

Paul Sporer: I do and I’ve been grappling with how to value that concern with the fact that I really like him and also can’t rule out that he fixes that issue to mitigate the potential fall off. The thing is, he paid for the O-Swing troubles with a modest 102 wRC+, .253 AVG and .289 OBP. O-Swing troubles don’t preclude success, see also: Albies, Ozzie. He also isn’t too expensive as the 15th SS off the board at pick 112 so while there is some concern, it’s not enough to push me off given the price, upside, and the fact that he has enough raw pwr and spd to overcome it

Keeper Q: Hi Paul, which arm would be your last keep-forever keeper of Rasmussen, John Gray or Ashby?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that one is tough. I like Ashby’s long term upside the most but I’m reluctant to think too far ahead with pitchers so I’ll take Gray

Kate: Thoughts on Grandal going into this year?  If he’s healthy, I feel like a bounceback is likely, but I’m a little worried seeing that he didn’t get surgery on his back which was apparently a major issue for him in-season this past year.

Paul Sporer: I am definitely worried a bit after the colossal collapse last year but I think there is enough of a discount around pick 250 to make it worth betting that he can rebound so I like him as a good C2 target

Fleur de AdoLis: The Michael Harris II hype is real…given regression possibilities/probabilities, is he really a Top 6 rounder?  His hype is making me re-think strategy in my 6 keeper league…Edman/Will Smith vs Harris II

Paul Sporer: I’m OK with a Top 6 round keeper, but I have some pause about his winter ADP of pick 26! That is fulllllll price for a profile that has more flaws than I’d like at such a price

Jasper: Hey Paul! Can you give me any possible nugget of justification for the A’s return for Sean Murphy? Likely to be Christmas dinner conversation.

Paul Sporer: I wish I could, but I really can’t. I know they have Langeliers, but I’d have rather just gotten Contreras back than the pkg. they ultimately received. I’m also lower than consensus on Esteury Ruiz so that is a big part of it, too. Much prefer Tributary Ruiz

Nicklaus Gaut: Now that Messi has finally won a World Cup, who’s the new biggest fraud in sports and why is it Oneil Cruz, top-75 pick?

Paul Sporer: Wait, how was he a fraud before this?!?! On the Oneil Cruz thing, I’m with you. He’s way overpriced at this juncture

Anonymous: I was shocked when 1 of the rotographs writers (correctly) pointed out that Bobby Witt Jr. was not actually a great hitter last year (wRC+ of 99). Overdrafted in 2023?

Paul Sporer: I think most realize his flaws at the dish, but power/speed from a young middle infielder is an attractive profile so his price remains high. I don’t fault anyone for balking at his lofty price, though. I’m not taking him in the 1st round

Paul Sporer: And that’s coming from someone who set his min. pick at the Main Event last year

Pickle Rick: What to do with CJ Abrams in dynasty?   Hold and hope?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I can’t quit a guy who skipped AAA to debut at age-21. I’m not gonna pretend his 302 PA were good, but it’s far too early to quit him! I will say that I do downgrade him slightly for using his middle name as the basis for his name when his first name is Paul (I imagine CJ is short for Christopher Jr.?)

Salty: Re: Nimmo – saw his interview with Mad Dog on High Heat, and he really seems like one of those “prove your worth” guys.  He did mention that he plans on running more next year, which is interesting because that’s been a knock in the fantasy world and something players tend to do in their contract year, not after they sign.

Paul Sporer: I’d love to see him run more, though I’m not likely to boost him based off just saying that. His late-100s, early-200s ADP is perfectly fair for who he is and if we can somehow get a double-digit SB output, that’d be huge. This was his first fully healthy season and if he can get another one this year, he can absolutely exceed last year’s output for a career year

JV: Thoughts on Jake McCarthy this year?

Paul Sporer: I prefer more pointed questions than a vague “thoughts on” query, but in the Christmas spirit I will share my write up on him from the Baseball HQ Forecaster:

Matt: Do you see Jared Walsh as a nice buy-low option in 2023?

Paul Sporer: I can see a situation where ’22 is an injury washout and he bounces back this year. I’m concerned by him falling apart vR, but again if it’s an injury washout then it’s not worth parsing the issues. He’s a post-300 pick so that alone makes him a worthy bounce back if you’re a believer as he can’t really hurt you at that price point. I was a believer the 2020 blip that put him on the map and I doubt he just lost his skills last yr. The question is how does he recover from his thoracic outlet syndrome surgery? I’ll be monitoring to determine how interested I’ll be once the spring draft seasons gets going. Even if we get good news on the health as ST gets started, I still don’t want him in leagues without IL spots

Matt: Do you like LAA as the landing spot for Drury? I think he’ll get every opportunity to be a full-timer while playing several positions again, though the park is not going to do him any favors.

Paul Sporer: I really like it! It’s been lost in the shuffle of the Correa madness. Not so fast on the park hate, though!

 

Paul Sporer

@sporer

 

Lost in the Correa shuffle is a solid move by the Angels here! Back to a positive park (6th in overall Park Factor; 7th in HRs) & that lineup is starting to get some depth to it, especially if they can stay healthy

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

Utilityman Brandon Drury and the Los Angeles Angels are in agreement on a two-year, $17 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Drury, 30, won the Silver Slugger at the utility position last year and is the third bat the Angels have acquired this winter.

21 Dec 2022

Paul Sporer: It’s not Cincinnati, but it’s WAAAYYY better than SD. So I think Drury can be a plus bat in what is shaping up to be a strong lineup (pending health, of course, which is no certainty with that crew)

Insert Witty Name Here: Bohm going dynamite next year? Great contact rates (at least from my eyes), should be coming into more power, great lineup, thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I like Bohm and Stott, tbh! The dearth of 3B adds to my Bohm interest. While he only had 2 good months and 4 bad ones, I love a strong plate skills profile as the foundation for growth. There is raw power in his game that he can still tap into with those plate skills. His upside is a .300 hitter with mid-20s HR output. Stott isn’t as good of a hitter, but adds the speed element. I’m open to putting both on the same roster, too, as my CI/MI combo

Colton: I’m a bit surprised Colas hasn’t gotten more helium this offseason. Is there doubt about his performance at the upper levels last year? Seemed like a pretty aggressive promotions/assignments and he handled them all very well imo

Paul Sporer: I’m a Colas fan, but for kind of a silly reason: he went HAM in one of my OOTP franchises, lol. He has major upside with his power, but he is one of those all-or-nothing power types who could struggle with Ks and thus also AVG. The Benintendi signing muddies his path up a bit, but I was never really seeing him as someone who’d break camp, but rather a 4.5-5 month kinda guy as he has just 7 games at Triple-A. Good Draft Champions-type pick (50 rounds) or any sort of AL Only with reserves. BTW, here’s how he is doing through age-33 in that aforementioned OOTP franchise (I’m Miami so we only had him for 2 yrs bc my owner gives me like 8 cents a year) https://i.imgur.com/bTJVTC6.jpg

Paul Sporer: not sure why the pic didn’t embed

Paul Sporer: well now it did… lol

Insert Witty Name Here: The Show question: asked Szymborski last week about aging and gaming, my reaction times are way slower than what they used to be as a kid/young adult.  Have you started noticing that yet or are you still in your gaming prime?

Paul Sporer: Oh 100000%. Video games are a young person’s game for sure. I announce tournaments for The Show and the elder statesmen in those are like 21-22 years old, lol. I definitely “cheat” more and sell out for fastballs if that’s my read. Even if I flail and miss at a changeup or breaker, it’s better than hesitating and being late on a fastball which I pop up or miss completely. I can still compete at an above average level, but nowhere near tournament heights

Anonymous: Judge staying healthy and going berserk gives me hope for Buxton. I’m an idiot.

Paul Sporer: No, no you’re not! It can certainly happen. At this point, it’s just about how much you pay for it. But health is very fickle and that’s why I’m reluctant to completely crush a highly skilled player whose only issue is their health. That is a big “only” issue to have, but it’s not impossible to overcome. Hell, sometimes a guy known as injury prone can become an ironman down the line. Look at Ian Kinsler. 120, 130, 121, 144, 103 games in his first 5 seasons then reeled off a run of 155, 157, 136, 161, 154, 153 from ages 29-34. I’m not totally out on Buxton around pick ~100 or later, but his minimum pick is 48 and that’s just way too high for someone who has eclipsed 100 gms once

Jack: Orioles trading Jorge Mateo to SF makes sense now no?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s pretty interesting now after the Frazier signing for Baltimore and Correa fallout for SF. Crawford’s defense is still strong, but how much longer can you rely on a 36 yr old to stay strong at SS? I can’t imagine Mateo would cost a ton, either https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/orioles-have-received-trade-int…

Chip: Is Jack Leiter terrible? Is he worth rostering in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: No, yes. He debuted in AA which isn’t easy and while the results weren’t great, there were still flashes of the high end arm Texas is hoping he becomes. It all comes down to improving his command. He had BB issues at Vandy, too, but the rest of his game was so strong and he was difficult to square up that it didn’t matter. The pros are a different beast so he will need to adjust. I’m nowhere near out on him!

Anonymous: Yandy Diaz is this year’s Brandon Drury who was last year’s Cedric Mullins II

Paul Sporer: Only if he can finally lift the damn ball

Anonymous: Will the stud pitchers trickle back up into the first round by February where they traditionally go, or is this new hitters-only shape of the top of the draft here to stay?

Paul Sporer: Yes, they will, especially in the Main Event. IIRC, it follows this pattern regularly with pitchers not really rising until Spring Training. Just seeing guys pitching in ST, regardless of outcomes, is enough to start pushing them back up the board. deGrom, for example, will definitely hit some 1st rounds and will be at least an early 2nd-rounder once we see him in Arizona ST gms for the Rangers

Chip: Is Nick Pratto a rich man’s Mike Ford?

Paul Sporer: He is a destitute man’s Vinnie Pasquantino!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! I’ll be off next week as the site is dark for the holidays. I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season & New Year! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all!!

BTW, If y’all like watching YouTube videos, I re-ran the Angels 2022 season starting BEFORE the 14-gm losing streak to see if I could change their fate and you can check that out here: