Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – December 13th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!!

Chris: Right now Lux is penciled in as the dodgers SS.  Do you see that being the case on opening day?

Paul Sporer: As long as he’s healthy, I definitely think so. I’m still a big fan

Dodgers Blue: Now that the Jays have lost out on Ohtani – seems the HAVE to have Bellinger, no?  Their lineup is very RH heavy and they have a need for a CF (can move Varsho back to LF) or 1b (they could put Vlad in the DH spot).

Paul Sporer: He’d be a really good fit for them. If they were willing to go in on Ohtani, they should’ve definitely be able to pivot that money toward 2-3 strong FAs now that he’s in LA

blue moon adomaitis: Hi Paul: If the Orioles promote Jackson Holliday early, where will he play0..0

Paul Sporer: Shortstop presumably w/Gunnar over at 3B. I’m not sure he breaks camp even if he gets a Chourio-esque deal, but it could certainly be a quick arrival given what we saw last year from him

Phil: In a dynasty league, should I ride the Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 hype and sell high before he takes his first MLB AB or hold onto him? The contact skills are enticing, but the combination of his lack of power and Oracle Park has me nervous.

Paul Sporer: I’m a fan of the Grandson of Wind, but I think it makes sense to at least gauge interest now that he’s landed in MLB. The safe bet is that he won’t start off on fire (not because of him specifically, just bc it’s always safe to bet against someone being amazing immediately upon arrival) meaning this could be his peak interest level in your league when people can still dream on him

Tim: Now that Jung Hoo Lee has signed with the Giants, who should the Padres go after to fill their needs in CF and LF?

Paul Sporer: Bellinger makes some sense for them but they might just do more of a glove-only punt in CF with like a Kiermaier or Bader

Official Gary Gaetti OnlyFans Account: Is Jackson Holiday actually going to be that valuable in fantasy? avg and …..? seems like only one category

Paul Sporer: He was 19 this year, I don’t think he’s a finished product. He could absolutely grow into plus power in the coming years. I can understand being light on him going into this year, but for the long-term, he looks like a huge bat who should deliver strong AVG/HR/R/RBI

Official Gary Gaetti OnlyFans Account: Who do you take first: Jackson Holiday or Jackson Chourio?

Paul Sporer: Chourio bc I think the speed gives him a fantasy foundation even if the bat isn’t ready immediately

Dodgers Blue: Who is more likely to stick behind the plate, long term – Tyler Soderstrom or Henry Davis?  Also, while we are speaking of defensively challenged back stops – where do you see Mitch Garver’s best fit?

Paul Sporer: Davis, I guess, but I really don’t see either doing so. Garv could head back to the Rangers. Maybe SF? Can platoon at 1B with Wade, too?

Marvin: Does Detroit smarten up this year and give Carpenter everyday at bats?

Paul Sporer: Love Carpenter, but I don’t necessarily mind him being platooned as he has had a 200 pt platoon split in the majors. As long as he’s in everyday vR, I’ll be OK

Guest: I heard from Justin on the S&B pod that you were actively being recruited by Rotowire – care to address these rumors?

Paul Sporer: We’re focused on the offseason with Fangraphs

Official Gary Gaetti OnlyFans Account: Nolan Gorman: sell high or keep?

Paul Sporer: High if someone is paying markedly more than what he was in 2023. I think he can be a 30/.240 guy with some consistency which definitely means a 40 bomb is in his range of outcomes, but so is 18/.210. In short, I like him but selling high is worth investigating

Saul Poorer: Is the new Jeff Hoffman a lock-down middle reliever that I can count on for ratios?

Paul Sporer: And possibly the closer. I really like Hoffman for next year

Paul Sporer: Spiked up to a 16% SwStr and 33% K last year. He’s my top SVs spec right now

Ryan: What kind of power do you see Nolan Schanuel developing eventually?

Paul Sporer: Maybe double-digits. And this is exclusively off things I’ve read as I don’t think I could identify if his swing was going to deliver more power in the future, but just everywhere is pretty firmly agreed that his pop just won’t be super impactful

Luke: Do you think Tatis could blow up this year? Wondering if it could take him a full year to get back to normal, similar to Acuna?

Paul Sporer: It’s 1000% in the cards

Ian: Do you think Chase Silseth could be an impact starter or is he more of a depth guy?

Paul Sporer: He’s one of my guys. I really like him. I think the stuff is there and it’s about harnessing, so the archetype of my pitching prospects. His command and control must improve to be an impact guy, but it’s in there IMO. Just 24 going into next year, too

Todd: Is Eury Perez going to be a top pitcher sooner rather than later?  I traded Cole for him late last season in a keeper league where we keep 3 hitters and 3 SPs.

Paul Sporer: He has all the makings of a frontliner and I like him being in Miami. That spacious park allows some margin for error as he continues to figure things out at the big league level after that excellent debut

Dodgers Blue: Curtis Mead.  Should we still be believers?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yeah, if you like Yandy Diaz… I think he’s that same type of line drive, batting average type guy. They can be tough fantasy fits bc even the best AVG guys have the volatility of balls in play, but the upside is there for a solid fantasy contributor: .280/15/90/80

E: Are you a Michael King believer? Who do you like as the last two keeper pitchers for dynasty: King, Tiedeman, Nestor Cortes, Lodolo, Bello?

Paul Sporer: I am, yes. Health is the biggest impediment to his success next year. I buy the talent and think he’ll be a nice SP in San Diego. I’ll take him & Bello of that group. I so badly want to love Lodolo & Greene (I know he’s not on the list, just saying both Cincy guys) but that park absolutely terrifies me and I can’t get past it for either given their price points

juan pierres mustache: Have Christian Walker ($11), Nate Lowe ($10), Marcell Ozuna ($5) competing for 2 1B/UT spots in an Ottoneu lineup. League has significant inflation and all three prices feel relatively good. Any chance Ozuna gets OF back? Otherwise, which two would you prefer?

Paul Sporer: Given how meticulously they are building this team, I think they will do everything to ensure Ozuna doesn’t play the OF outside an occasional off-day for someone or an outright emergency. And by occasional, I’m talkin like 5 gms. That said, he is half the price and undeniably great last year. I think Lowe is the automatic and then it comes down to Walker v. Ozuna. It comes down to whether or not Walker having 1B is worth $6 compared to Ozuna being UT-only. It probably isn’t, go Lowe/Ozuna

SandyIsTheGreatest: When I was a child I used to stay up late reading the backs of baseball cards. Now that I am an adult I still do lol

Paul Sporer: LOL yes, aka Fangraphs & BRef pages

SandyIsTheGreatest: Dodgerrs will beat everyone this year lol

Paul Sporer: I mean, they miiiiight but, they’d hardly the first team to overwhelmingly win the offseason only to disappoint in-season

E: Do you think Vinny P picks up where he left off pre-injury? Is he a potential full breakout guy for 2024?

Paul Sporer: Hard to say after shoulder surgery and definitely worth being cautious about him doing so, especially as a Top 200 pick. I’m rooting for him, but probably not paying the price.

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, only had a tight hour today… Thanks for coming out, back next week with more!