Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 9th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Welcome, everyone! Thanks for coming out!!

comish4lif: Tony Gonsolin in a 12 team NL only. Has he hurt me enough by now? Is he injured? Was he never really that good? Free Agent pickup would be someone like: Cueto, Carrasco, Rich Hill, Jake Irvin…

Paul Sporer: It’s bit of an all of the above situation and I’m open to moving on from him even in an NL. I know he’s giving up a HR as I type this, but I kinda like Cueto. Carrasco looked great last time out, but think I’d still prefer Gonso. Not as in on Hill or Irvin over Gonso

B’ryce Szymbobski: Are we trusting youngins like GRod, Silseth in ten teamers now?

Paul Sporer: Definitely candidates, yes. It’s that classic situation where they almost certainly fit on someone’s roster, but possibly not yours.

KC: Does Cole Ragans have the potential to be a league winner?

Paul Sporer: If he keeps pitching like this, yes! But it’d be unrealistic to expect this from here on out. Big fan of his, though. He had some sneaky upside for me in the spring and I’m glad he’s getting a chance with KC – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/4-breakout-starting-pitcher-for-2023

Guest: Hey Paul. Who do you like as a keeper in a 12 team roto OPS league: Jarren Duran ($13) or Riley Greene ($6)? Is it even close, and are either really

Paul Sporer: Duran isn’t worth 2x Greene, so it’s definitely Greene b/w the 2. Greene isn’t a must in a 12, but he’s certainly worthy of consideration

Paul Sporer: Another bomb off Cueto. Definitely wasn’t wanting to start him today, but do still like him at home and other HR-suppressing venues

Micah: Would you give Lynn or Flaherty for Ragans? (QS)

Paul Sporer: I’d give Flaherty

Jefferson: Carlos Rodon was injured, bad, then injured again. They are hoping he spends the minimum on the IL which would line up for WAS (I think). Are you keeping and starting him on return, which would also be the first week of the playoffs for me!

Paul Sporer: I’d have a tough time going riiight back to him, especially in the playoffs. Might just be a lost season for Rodon.

B’ryce Szymbobski: and pour one out for me… I left Logan Gilbert on the bench in favor of two start EuryP this week 🙁

Paul Sporer: If your staff is good enough to ever sit Logan Gilbert, you’re likely in good shape!

Fant’sy Feast: Hi Paul! In a standard 5×5 next week, would you roll with Braxton Garrett in a super scary 2-step against HOU and LAD? Would Christopher Sanchez at WAS be a lot safer? At this point, I have them benched in favor of Nestor @ATL and Bello @NYY, but not feeling confident that’s the right call at all.

Paul Sporer: I’m using either over Neston in ATL. I don’t want anyone but trusted aces in ATL right now, and even then I’m not exactly excited about it. I lean toward Sanchez for 1 over Garrett w/that devastating 2-step

Thomas: Pfaadt has the lowest xwOBA in MLB since being called back up. Is he a 12 team add and immediate plug or matchup dependent?

Paul Sporer: Still picking spots. Wanted nothing to do with LAD and I don’t love SD back to back coming up, even though they’ve underwhelmed overall this year

MochiBetts: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat.  For waiver wire adds, what is your process for determining whether or not the best you’re going to get from the player has already happened on the wire vs there’s more to come for your team?

Paul Sporer: First, I want to try and assess their potential playing time going forward. They need chances to show if the run they’re on has any viability. Then I just do my best to analyze the skills they have shown in the minors and in the run that has my interest. Is it BABIP-fueled where everything is falling? Do they have strong K and/or BB rates?

O: Hi Paul. Who do you like more as a keeper in a 12 team OPS league? $13 Jarren Duran or $6 Riley Greene? Is it really even close? Are both even keepers? (I’m selling – the offers are actually Duran, $5 auction cash, and $30 Nolan Arenado, OR Greene and $20 auction cash … I’m having trouble deciding)

O: (Thanks for answering my question that got cut off. Love all your content man!)

Paul Sporer: Hmm… that’s an interesting wrinkle. I think I’m leaning harder with Greene/$20

Tim: With SP predictably thin in the 14t H2H dynasty I’m in, I’ve been being patient with Quinn Priester. But is there anything in his profile at this point that makes him worth hanging onto with Blackburn and Stripling available? I’m in the playoffs as of now

Paul Sporer: No, it’s mostly just the minor league track record right now. I’d probably go for Blackburn over him right now

JWR: F Peralta (Milw) appears to have righted the ship.  Are you buying?

Paul Sporer: Definitely, looks a lot better of late, especially w/0 BB in 2 of his L3

Brean: What do you expect from Emerson Hancock ROS and Dynasty?

Paul Sporer: I’ll bite myself from the SP Chart comment this morning: On a SEA young SP spectrum from Kirby-Gilbert (more command) to Bry-Bry (more dominance), he’s a couple ticks from the middle toward Kirby-Gilbert

Guest: flags fly forever – Josh Jung is definitely a keeper in league settings, but trade him for anything useful before tomorrow’s deadline? pretty close 2.5-team race

Paul Sporer: Yes if you can make a big impact on your chances (or at least, potentially… we can never know for sure how the guys will perform of course), I say do it. I love Jung, but I love titles more and I’d take the shot

Scrapper: Is Javier Baez toast, and if so, at what point do the Tigers just say he is a sunk cost and DFA him?

Paul Sporer: I feel like he’s better than this, but w/his glove and base running he’s still positive WAR so I can’t envision a DFA in the near future

Jung studs: In a dynasty, would you rather have Corbin Carroll or Gunnar Henderson?

Paul Sporer: Carroll

Pedro: Thoughts on Davis Schneider?  Worth a speculative 12 team add, or just a hot waiver add for now?

Paul Sporer: I don’t mind taking a shot if you have an open spot, he was definitely raking in Triple-A, too.

Mike: Do you feel Joe Ryan will return to form in September?

Paul Sporer: If he’s healthy, yes, but that’s a variable that will be an unknown until he’s back. Barring a setback or anything, I’ll almost certainly put him back into the lineup immediately

Micah: Are you cutting C Javier for Gavin W or Matz in a 12-team QS league? Any suggested trade targets for selling low on C Javier?

Paul Sporer: Javier has been so frustrating. Maybe make tonight a test of sorts… bad start and cut for Gavin Williams. As for trade targets, I wonder if a challenge trade for talk of the town Cole Ragans might turn out!

Missing Shane: H2H points league. Pick 3 to replace Sugar Shane…..L Allen, Ashcraft, Jon Gray, Manoah, Wells, Mikolas, taillon

Paul Sporer: Wells, Ashcraft, Allen and I’ll say Mikolas is close, too. Wells is starting at AA this wknd so hopefully will be back after that

For Love of the Dame: Miguel Vargas (2b-LAD) has hit well since well (just over .300) since his recent demotion.  With the Dodgers recent MI acquisitions via trade, do you think that Vargas will be called up later this season?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’d imagine he’ll be back up at some point, especially if an injury crops up. At the very least, he can be a September call up

Scrapper: Any explanation as to how Framber Valdez can sandwich a no-hitter with two dog starts?

Paul Sporer: Baseball at her best! But also, opponents play a role there for sure. And I know 6 ER is always bad for the ERA, but I’m encouraged that he was sharp for 5 IP after the 2 ugly ones to start

Phil: 12 team H2H. I traded for Cease, Detmers, and Gavin Williams.  Williams is looking the best now.  I dropped Detmers for Ragans. Was this a good move and should I try to be patient with Cease?

Paul Sporer: Dang, you dropped one of my favorites for another, but I totally get it w/Detmers last 5 starts. Cease has been so frustrating this year. I’m still not sure I can cut him, buuuttt if you were ever going to do it, now might be the time w/a trip to Coors on tap next wk so maybe he’d stay on the wire a bit longer?

Game Night: Frank Pallone- MLB RP or USA House of Representatives?

Paul Sporer: Oh that’s a good one. I have no idea… Rep!

ie: Pfaadt: xWOBA isn’t a great stat for forward looking pitcher performance.  xFIP and SIERA paint a much more accurate picture…as much as can be painted at least.

Paul Sporer: Yes this is regarding an earlier comment about Pfaadt and that’s a great call. I should’ve added that, but yeah, his excellence in xwOBA doesn’t make him a must start or anything

Guestino: Yandy D. too much to give for E.Ruiz or CJ?

Paul Sporer: Depends how much impact the SBs have for you

Tim: Thank you as always for doing these! What are your general feelings on Lucas Sims? I love the holds and big K innings he’ll give, but when he blows up, it can really hurt

Paul Sporer: Yeah his persistent control issues definitely fuel those meltdowns and his home park gives him some HR troubles. Although, meltdowns are the risk w/a lot of these non-closing relievers bc that’s usually why they aren’t RPs

Cedric Mullins: I’m coming off the IL soon for you, Big J!

Wait, this is Paul’s chat. Carry on!

Paul Sporer: He probably tweeted, but Justin is sick which is why he didn’t chat Monday and there was no pod

Ohtani to the Mets: Where do you think Elly goes in drafts next year?

Paul Sporer: It really does depend on how these final 2 months go, tbh

Paul Sporer: We discussed him as a potential 1st rounder last week on the podcast – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1203-is…

Ashcraft: Is he lucky or good? And is it better to be lucky or good?

Paul Sporer: His core skills were really underwhelming at the frontend of this run, but now they’re coming up and looking a lot better including 7 Ks and 1 BB today. I’m buying back in despite getting burned by him at the draft table

KCbbq: Silseth supposedly changed his pitching mix and added a new pitch while in AAA and unveiled it when he was recalled. Small sample size or is this something that he can maintain?

Paul Sporer: He has amped up his slider usage big time. It’s different, too, from 85 mph to 81 mph. I think he can maintain this, but there is some question about whether or not he’ll hold his SP spot since Griffin Canning is supposed to be a minimum IL stay

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all!