Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 6th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, thanks for coming out!!

TC: Nick Kurtz will be drafted as a top-__ hitter next year

Paul Sporer: I think the answer absolutely depends on these last two months but as it stands right now, I’d say 3rd-4th round so like a Top 25 hitter which is probably too high for a rookie with a 30% K rate, but he’s just been SOOOO good

smuckles: Dynasty, points league: time to drop Gore?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m OK with that. Every time he reels us in with a good run, it’s canceled out by a disastrously bad run that leaves you worse off than before you had him. And even has his best, the WHIP is always a problem. He may one day still connect all the dots as he’s still just 26 years old, but I’m tired of getting rug-pulled by him

Rickey: What are the odds Ke’bryan hayes becomes interesting again in cincinnati? What’s the upside for him? And do you figure Sal Stewart is now. 1baseman?

Paul Sporer: Any answer here has to start with knowledge that I’m a Ke’Breezy fan so I’m hoping this goes well. I don’t think he needs to revolutionize himself to be a legit fantasy player, though, and frankly the bulk of it comes down to health. If he’s playing, I think he’s a 13-18 HR/15-20 SB type guy with a .265+ AVG and great defense at 3B. The park upgrade alone can do a lot of the work IF he stays healthy, but moving from Pittsburgh to Cincy won’t help on the health front

MF Luder: ROS: Liberatore or Lorenzen?

Paul Sporer: I’d let upcoming schedules dictate that more than looking for a tangible talent split as they’re very close.

Ron Hassey’s Gigantic Face: Needed pitching, traded away Jacob Wilson윌슨 for Luis Castillo in 16 team dynasty points league. Will I come to regret this one?

Paul Sporer: Not if Castillo gives you the help you need. Wilson is a solid player with some real upside but you can’t agonize over results of players you traded away if you got what you need out of the trade. Trades get 2 grades: one at the time and one when all the dust has settled. You might not love the latter’s result having traded a young bat for an old arm, but this is a standard fantasy trade

Mike: Marsee, Varsho, or what is behind door number 2 (prospect like Beavers)?

Paul Sporer: I looove Marsee and I’m so bummed I couldn’t get him in either of my Main Event lgs this weekend. I’m poor so my bids are small. He wasn’t even that expensive, but anyone north of $10 is pricy in my book right now. Anyway, Marsee’s skills (14 HR, 47 SBs, 16% BB at AAA) plus playing time could yield a great stretch run. All that said, Varsho is the more bankable bat if you just need hitting. He’s back healthy and has announced his return with an insane Coors series (3 HR, 10 RBI in 2 gms). Being that he’s back from a hamstring injury, SBs could be light so if speed is the need, it’s Marsee.

Worth keeping tabs on Beavers as he should get a look down the stretch and he’s been Marsee-like in the minors (18 HR, 22 SBs, 16% BB at AAA) but I prefer the two in the majors right now.

clydethedog: 4×4 roto NL only keeper league, would you trade Skenes for a massive haul due to him not getting wins with the Pirates (k’s are not counted)?

Paul Sporer: I would be open to it but definitely not trying to trade him. He’s still elite in 2 of the 3 SP categories and it’s not like he’s light years behind in Ws. His 6 aren’t great, but only 10 guys have at least 10 so you can reasonably cover Skenes’ W gap. if you can get 2-3 foundational pieces plus another supplemental piece are two that you think really changes your team, then by all means listen, but don’t let the low Ws thing make you think you have to trade Skenes

MF Luder: How do you feel about Clayton Kershaw down the stretch?

Paul Sporer: Solid team streamer to chase some wins with; tiny K% shrinks is margin for error so you can might want to skip some tougher starts, but he’s also handled several top tier teams as well (2.94 ERA/1.28 WHIP v. >.500 tms | 3.66/1.22 v. sub-.500 tms)

Matt: 12 team roto (QS), pick my final 2 SP next week: Flaherty (@CHW, @MIN), S Gray (NYY), Kershaw (SD), Zebby (DET, @NYY), Rodon (MIN)

Paul Sporer: I’d probably just go Gray/Rodon over the 2-start guys. Flaherty and Zebby are two guys I’ve certainly been on this yr at different points, but they’re both so maddening start-to-start that you’ll probably just get 1 good, 1 bad. Just go with the studs. Gray bounced back from his blip with an absolute gem at LAD and Rodon is more in the thick of his blip, but the skeleton crew Twins could be the perfect Rx to get on track

Kevin: Do you think Bieber will have more value than your average streamer when he returns?

Paul Sporer: Probably not. I just think he’ll have standard TJ returner inconsistency but maybe end up doing more damage bc his name value will earn him more trust. We’ve seen some guys end up with a solid little sample bc they avoid any major duds in a 4-5 starts back from TJ, but there’s a lottt of risk, especially now that we’re later in the season, too

Pitching: How would you rank these pitchers ROS for a fantasy title run? C.Sanchez, Blake Snell, Webb?

Paul Sporer: Oooh that’s tough. Not gonna be a lotta split there and the schedule is going to be important. Sanchez and Webb are in the same tier and Snell’s upside is that same tier. He was solid in his return, but definitely holds a bit more risk than the other two. I probably go Sanchez/Webb/Snell right now

Chuck: Laureano has now fallen to OF 46 rest-of-season by BAT X. What happened to him? Might have to drop him in my 12 once Springer and Buxton come back.

Paul Sporer: Perhaps Bat X is concerned he will lose PT with the move to SD? But he’s been fantastic. July was his worst month but a still solid .862 OPS with 5 HR in 97 PA and then he’s been blazing hot in 5 August games. I don’t think he’s going to platoon with Sheets but instead play daily. You might still have to cut him bc you’re getting two studs back, but Laureano himself is fine in both production and playing time so I imagine he’ll be snapped right up if you cut him

Insert Witty Name Here: Is Corbin Carroll still a first round talent ROS?

Paul Sporer: Talent? For sure. Hard to say if he’ll play to that level rest of way. He’s coming off a rough July (.686 OPS) but he had a 1.099 before that. If there’s room for concern on 1st round talent, it’s the SBs. He has 4 since June 1st after 10 through May. I could see some self preservation aspect to that so maybe he’s more 2nd-3rd round vibes, but he very much still has a 1st round skillset. The speed hasn’t diminished, just the desire to flex it on the base paths.

Wow: Did Colson Montgomery suddenly breakout or is this just noise? He seems to be sustaining this new level.

Paul Sporer: I think it’s a reminder that he’s still remarkably talented and has real upside, but I don’t think it erases the concerns his Triple-A record created, namely the contact issues. He’s still striking out 27% of the time and the 18% SwStr says it could be muuuuch worse. He’s found a power groove that is outrunning the contact issues right now, but that bill will come due and if he’s going to live in a 27-30% K (or worse) range, then he’s going to be insanely streaky

Dos Muncys: Do you think Colt Keith is maybe one season away from a full breakout, (power and all) or is this kinda who he is?

Paul Sporer: I see another level possible for sure. He could be one of those stair-step developments who jumps up a bit each year to get to their peak. There is more power development here

Mike: The A’s have to keep Bangeliers at leadoff right?

Paul Sporer: Gottaaaaa play the mojo for at least a few games after last night!

Chuck: My mistake … I meant to ask about Lawrence Butler there, not Laureano. I was comparing the two and typed in the wrong name, Lol

Paul Sporer: Ohhh ok, that makes sense. Yeah he had a brutal July with a .224 BABIP being the primary culprit. He still had 4 HR/4 SB but a .174 AVG always stings. I see like 8 HR/SB with a .240 AVG the rest of the way

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out. Thanks so much for coming, have a good one!