Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 30th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Andrew: with shallow league h2h playoffs starting next week, what to do with trevor story? if steals arent needed, would you drop for noot or brandon drury?

Paul Sporer: Yeah would definitely prefer either of those 2 to Story, especially w/the SBs not mattering as much. I lean Noot with him returning Friday

I Used to be Mel Clark: Are you fine with cutting Will Smith in a 16 teamer at this point? Seems like the job is Chapman’s going forward. Similarly, any reason to keep holding Jose Alvarado? I have more than enough interesting SP arms to hold in their place ie. Verlander/Peralta/Glasnow/Ragans/Keller/Bibee/Rodon/Detmers/H. Brown/Kutter/Greene.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I have no issues cutting either tbh

Andrew: is kyle harrison a via steaming option in shallow leagues or is this fools gold and going to blow up in our faces?

Paul Sporer: It’s kinda both. He’s viable to stream, but he still has a tough command profile so there will be volatility. His start this week was super impressive, but he reminds me a bit of Cease in terms of that start to start volatility

Michael: how do you rank ROS for roto….Merrifield, Gleyber, K. Marte, Paredes??

Paul Sporer: Merrifield’s value depends on how much you need the SBs so he’s kinda off to the side w/this group. Paredes, Gleyber, Marte is my order for the rest

Walter Bishop: I’ve destroyed my league this year and I have the next week and a half off. However, I need to drop one K. Marte or Lane Thomas? 12tm OBP league, offensive K’s are a category. Thanks Paul.

Paul Sporer: I lean Marte as the keep in that duo unless the 11 SB edge for Thomas is game-changing for you (prob gonna be about a 2-3 gap rest of the way)

I Used to be Mel Clark: Is Fraley done running the rest of the year? If so, is he still a viable starter in a 16-Team OBP?

Paul Sporer: If you can use the pop and OBP, yeah, but I’d be surprised if he runs at all

Chip: Is it time to drop Cease? Just not sure I can trust him for my playoffs. 12-team H2H league. Replacement would be in the Pfaadt-Braxton Garret range.

Paul Sporer: Yes I have zero issues dropping

Matt: Mervis should be back up on Friday, right?

Paul Sporer: You mean for September expansion? Yeah, he certainly could be but I don’t think it’s a lock

Murph: Sean Murphy is sittin an awful lot lately. Crazy to drop him in league playoffs for Garver?

Paul Sporer: Garver’s been great, but I’m not cutting Murphy anywhere. He isn’t sitting allll that much

Slim: I keep waiting for Sale to look like Sale. Glimpses here and there, but crickets mostly. Hold for KC or drop for someone like Wicks or Harrison?

Paul Sporer: Hold for KC but probably a do-or-die type game for me and if he flops again, it’s cutsville

Matt: Ezequiel Duran – started on absolute fire but has cooled off since. But still seems above avg and has positional flexibility. Solid bench player in 2024?

Paul Sporer: Depends on his PT outlook, but yeah he certainly can be

Matt: Any thoughts on Curtis Mead after our brief view of him? Any worries?

Paul Sporer: No no definitely not worried. He didn’t go off, but it’s a tiny sample so even great numbers wouldn’t have been worth making too much of right now. The modest output could push him down the board even more and I’ll gladly buy back next yr

SP ranks: I may have hallucinated this, but in your last chat did you say you were doing another round of SP ranks? If so, where can I find them / are they forthcoming?

Paul Sporer: Today!!

Paul Sporer: Wanted ’em to be done before the chat, but I had 2 unplanned mtg calls this morning and then my boxscore stream after that. But just writing the last few commentary bits and posting shortly after this chat!

Guest: Cole Ragans for real?

Paul Sporer: I’m a fan and if I can brag a bit, I’ll point out that he was a breakout candidate for me in the preseason:

Paul Sporer: He had major upside but injuries derailed him a bit until this year. This run will no doubt surge him up the SP rankings for 2024 but I’m open to paying the premium in a lot of cases.

Andrew: is garver worth a roster spot at this point even in 1C leagues?

Paul Sporer: Yes… just not for Sean Murphy like the previous Q

roy: We might have bumped into each other at the Jpegmafia/Danny Brown concert. You going to the Death Grips concert in October?

Paul Sporer: Yooo that’s awesome. Seeing Death Grips at ACL!

phil: predictions on the waiver bonanza?

Paul Sporer: I think a couple get scooped

Paul Sporer: Certainly an easy case to place a lot of these guys w/contenders

Oh, Brrr: How temporary do you think the Ober demotion is? I was going to sit him vs. Texas anyway, but would love to have him for the run.

Paul Sporer: In the same situation and was also sitting him v. TEX. I could see him coming back, but the HRs were back in full force and it might be a couple weeks. Depending what’s available this wk, I miiight be cutting him

Uncle Mike: Would you prefer Michael Brantley over Tommy Pham or Kerry Carpenter? The Pham SB’s help, but aren’t desperately needed.

Paul Sporer: Onlyyy if I was chasing AVG and had several points available to me. Otherwise I really prefer both Carp & Pham over him

sim: How aggressive would you be in churning for counting stats at this point? In a 12 team, 40 manroster roto league with both save and hold and considering dropping Jordan Hicks tomorrow to stream Kirby Yates or Ian Hamilton or someone of that level. We’re all bunched up within 3 or 4 in saves and holds

Paul Sporer: If the potential numbers are out there, it’s a very worthy strategy. Lots of different managing down the stretch that we wouldn’t normally do Apr-Aug

H2H Playoffs: Jeff Zimmerman’s comps on H. Goodman were shockingly positive. Justin Mason was a hard pass.  What do you think? Trying to sort out this group for playoffs: Goodman, R. Greene, M. Haniger, M. Wallner, T. Story…  Thanks for all the great work this year!

Paul Sporer: Playing daily for COL, not sure it’s a hard pass, particularly in deeper formats which is usually Justin’s focus. Greene, Wallner, Haniger re my favorites from that group unless you really need Story’s SBs. Goodman is lower on this list bc it’s always hard to bet on AVG which seems to be the best asset we’ll get from him, but he has enough scenarios of interest that it’s not a hard pass for me

Oh, Brrr: Ober Follow-Up: Cut for Bello or Littel, or is that too shortermist?

Paul Sporer: No, no those are viable arms and make an Ober cut muuuch easier. I’d play matchups on those 2, they’re not far enough apart to wholly prefer one over the other

Baseball Girl: 5×5 keep forever…Can you rank in order of keeper value: Rutschman, Chisolm Jr., Abrams, Jung.

Paul Sporer: Just as you’ve listed them here. I love Jung, but the SBs of Jazz & Abrams keep them above him. And Adley is switch-hitting Posey, IMO. Just gonna be the dude behind the dish for a decade

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Rank these middle infielders ROS: Correa, Gelof, B.Lowe, Schneider?

Paul Sporer: Gelof/Lowe are very close, Schneider, then Correa. Brutal AVG and no SBs hurt Correa a lot here

Matt: Is Kerry Carpenter a legit 30-HR bat next year if he stays healthy the whole year?

Paul Sporer: These are NOTTT plant questions put in for me to gas myself up but I also like Carp quite a bit coming into the year and I do believe he has 30 HR upside as a full-timer

Taylor: In a 12 team roto SV+HLD league keep 20, would you trade any of Jhoan Duran, Clase, Andres Munoz, or Devin Williams for Cole Ragans?

Paul Sporer: Literally any of ’em, tbh, especially in SV/HD. I’m not even sure I’d have a preference and I might let the trade partner pick

Paying the Big Bux: Buxton may finally be coming back. Is he worth dealing for in a OBP keeper league? Would replace Nelson Velazquez.

Paul Sporer: Yeah when healthy he can be an absolute game changer in a short term run

Severing from Sevvy: We’re not buying the smoke/mirrors from Severino vs. WAS and DET, right? After HOU he gets MIL.

Paul Sporer: Not entirelyyyyy… it is enough to make me focus on the HOU start and if he stands up there, I’ll start to look at him as a real option down the stretch

Michael: follow up to the Merrifield q…I currently have him but don’t need the steals….HR and RBI more beneficial.  But now don’t I have to wait until after the weekend trip to Coors to make a change?

Paul Sporer: yeah, just keep the Coors run for sure

Paul Sporer: OMG… I almost typed “KC isn’t at COL, though”

Paul Sporer: Still don’t associate Whit w/TOR

Alex: What’s your outlook on Brayan Bello next season?

Paul Sporer: Easy breakout candidate, will be on lots of lists as such, too. Candidate to be what I call a Wide Awake Sleeper (just on every list so he’s no longer a sleeper)

ha-seong him: hey paul, is yoshida droppable in shallow roto leagues? Have a roster crunch and either have to drop him or one of eury, bradish or ragans. thanks!

Paul Sporer: Good Q to spark a bigger convo about standings management down the stretch and guys like Yoshida, Arraez, Verdugo… these high-AVG guys w/light or volume-based fantasy juice can be cut in spots where chasing the HR or SB of someone else makes more sense, especially if you aren’t in a tight AVG battle

Paul Sporer: So yes, Yoshida is cuttable. Arraez is VERY cuttable unless you have multiple fantasy points to gain. There is also benchbable v. cuttable. If a chief rival can gain 3-4 AVG pts, don’t let them get a shot at your Yoshida/Arraez, but maybe bench them if you can use a power- or speed-focused guy more. Bottom line: manage heavily to your standings at this juncture

buffy: how much should you ignore a single blowup for a pitcher. Looking only at ERA Schmidt is 3.15 since the All Star break and France is 2.39 excluding that one outing. They both just had mega disasters however. I have both and feel I should just carry on with their skills shown aside from that outing. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I’m always digging in gamelogs to see stuff like this. I went right back to the well w/France and Schmidt after their duds especially w/both being against good tms (BOS and ATL, respectively). Sometimes ppl make too much of one dud from a France-type who they maybe didn’t fully trust when he posted 12-15 good starts

Kevin: I grabbed Cobb for a two start week and was rewarded so far.  Should I be worried about him getting pushed back or ineffectiveness after all those pitches last night? May need to drop him or Javier for streaming.

Paul Sporer: I had ZERO issue w/the 131 as he wasn’t laboring at all throughout the game, but it’d make some sense to give him a longer rest and cost him the 2-step. Stay tuned to see if they announce something here in the next day or 2 so you can pivot

Stinky McStinkerson: Glad I didn’t start Christopher Sanchez today. That start was poop.

Paul Sporer: Wasn’t great, but not a killer. LAA can still be tough, but I started Sanchez

The Woo: Does Woo have another level this year? Can he pump out 6 inning starts consistently?

Paul Sporer: I’d be surprised if we saw another level this year, but I love his long term outlook

Nate: Who would you most like to have for H2H Playoffs. Sal Perez, William Contreras, or Cal Raliegh

Paul Sporer: Contreras for me unless you can find any sort of scheduling edge

AJ: trying to get SP for H2H playoffs… I like the LAD schedule in weeks 23 & 24, for guys like Kershaw & Urias, but would you look elsewhere given the that they will be protected?

Paul Sporer: I’d be sure to have replacements at the ready but hopefully neither is being fully pulled by that point. Maybe they’ll be close enough to ATL for the #1 seed that they’ll keep pushing!

Nick: Do Haniger or Yazstremski have anything left in the tank? Would you pick up either in a 12 team roto, assuming needs in OF and R/RBI?

Paul Sporer: I think both can still hit when healthy but PT in 12s would be my question. I might just watchlist ’em and pick up if either really get going. Probably more bankable options on a 12 wire

DynastyQuestions: First year dynasty draft rankings so far from you: Crews, Skenes, Langford? Crews, Langford, Skenes?  What say you?

Paul Sporer: Crews over Skenes for me, but 1a/1b type stuff for sure. Don’t sleep on Clark for DET, but Langford as the college guy will contribute sooner

Why not Zoidberg?: You ever score 13 runs in one day of a playoff matchup to see your opponent scored 14? Or you ever get up 10 RBIs on day 1 to lose your lead in day 2? Totally hypothetical.

Paul Sporer: Oh absolutely and it’s sooo painful lol

Bonk: Trea so hot right now. Full 2024 bounce back after his big contract?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I always felt he’d be a great bounce back rebuy but this surge is likely robbing any discount from 2024, especially if September stays electric

Alex: Is Cease a buy low in dynasty for next year? He was so good it’s crazy he’s like this. Is a lack of motivation for being in Chicago possible?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s 40-grade command. It’s 40-grade that runs from 30 to 60 on a given night and when paired w/his elite stuff, can make him an ace when he’s on but reeeaaalllyy tough to stomach when he’s not. Could see Chicago’s suckiness playing a little role, but I wouldn’t lean too heavily on that. Re: next year – I’ll always look to buy guys like Cease when they dip so depending where there discount is, I’ll likely take a shot and see if he can regain his ’22 form

Wishcasting: Does Mason Miller get a starters workload down the stretch? His last MiLB outing was only an inning

Paul Sporer: Highly doubt it

Peter: The cincy offense is entering anemic levels going into stretch run. Time to move on from guys like friedl, CES?

Paul Sporer: Not Friedl, but yes on CES. Friedl still has 4 HR/7 SB in August

Greg: Out of Bobby Miller, Gavin Williams, CES, and Jordan Walker, which two are you keeping in a 10 team H2H each cat? I already have Strider and Witt kept. Everyone beside Walker can be kept for 10+ seasons as they were WW pick ups

Paul Sporer: Walker and Miller out of those 4

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, I gotta go finish these new SP rankings. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!