Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 21st, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

To have and to hold: Better keeper in AL only league: deGrom ($6) or G-Cole ($15)?

Paul Sporer: Cole for sure. I just can’t trust deGrom’s health, even at the great price

Guest: 12 homers and 3 steals for Carroll since the Break… just like we all expected!

Paul Sporer: I’ve 9 HRs/3 SBs, but point taken… he’s swinging much better and I stand firm that his shoulder was bothering him early on but not enough that he couldn’t play through it and then he also suffered some bad luck compounding the issues

Spot Starter: Bowdin Francis, Matt Boyd or Bido? Or just follow the match-ups?

Paul Sporer: This will show you where I’m starting w/them and then follow the matchups from there: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-in-season-starting-pitcher-rankings…

Matt: Injury aside, how are you feeling about Patrick Bailey? In my dynasty league, all the good catchers are young and cost controlled, so I scooped him for $1. Was thinking I had a good next year piece until the last 3-4 weeks happened.

Paul Sporer: I still feel good about him. Justin and I discussed him on today’s pod which will be out later today and we both expressed our interest in for 2025

Boyjom: Trying to stream QS – should I be prioritizing matchup or how deep the pitcher typically goes?

Paul Sporer: Definitely a mix. If they are constantly 4-5 IP, then maybe even the best matchups don’t get ’em to 6 IP. If they live in that 5-6 IP/start window, then the stronger matchups will likely be their best shots to land a QS. I’d also consider their bullpen support. I know that’s a bigger deal for wins but you don’t wan some reliever giving up an inherited 4th runner in the 7th inning to blow the QS. It’s not the biggest consideration, but can be used as a tiebreaker

Nicholas: Just wanted to thank you and Justin for all the work this season and how annoying is it that they announced Eflin’s injury on a Tuesday after it was too late to bench him since the Orioles played on Monday?

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much! And yes that was sooo annoying. And a big blow for Baltimore. Really not sure if they have enough arms to make an October run

Guest: Xavier Edwards has 18 of my team’s 33 steals since I picked him up, including 9 of my last 12. Last night I picked up PCA’s “August of Sudden Competence” and Merrifield, and am looking at Adell, but how can I balance this a bit without killing my OBP? Starling Marte?

Paul Sporer: Yeah you gotta be careful picking up too many OBP sinks. At least Edwards brings OBP, too. He doesn’t have any pop, but his BB% rate keeps the OBP nice. I like going for Marte. He’s not an OBP god, but he won’t really hurt you there, either.

Spot Starter: Thanks! I love your ranks. I wasn’t sure if Francis or Boyd had moved since Francis has looked good since they came out and Boyd has had a second start.

Paul Sporer: Oh right right right, that’s actually really fair bc I think it was the podcast with Nick (The Fireside Chat) where I expressed that I under-ranked Francis. He’s around 75 now. I worried Boyd would struggle in the Bronx so I’m not holding it against him too much. I like them both more than Bido so I’m probably playing the matchups b/w those 2

Its All a Fantasy: Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, and Mitch Keller look pretty tired going down the stretch. Should I think about streaming through them during playoff time or do you still trust them. 12 h2h points league

Paul Sporer: Totally fine streaming them and being much choosier w/my starts on them. The Red Sox had such a great rotation in the 1H and now it’s sketchy as hell. Keller still has his moments but deifnitely not a must-start.

Cleaning Up: Which cleanup Hitter on bad team: Andrew Vaughn or Spencer Horwitz. (OBP league)

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Horwitz fan!

Jay: Hi Paul. I lost Austin Riley in 2 leagues so I needed a 3B. I was able to grab Max Muncy in both. The problem is I now have 4 Dodgers on the roster Teoscar Hernandez, Muncy, Lux and Edman as a bench bat in one. Teoscar, Mookie, Muncy and Lux is replacing K. Marte for now in the other. I feel like that might be too much in a H2H league. What do you think?

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely not worried about it, especially on a team like the Dodgers. Love that you were able to scoop Muncy for Riley and have no problem w/all those Dodgers on your roster

Bradford: People are excited about the return of Bradford. Should I pursue him over Bryce Miller (wins evaporating in Seattle) or Pivetta (so unpredictable)?

Paul Sporer: Maybe over Pivetta. They are split a good bit on my rankings, but Bradford was absolutely someone I’d rank a good bit higher if I re-ranked everyone today. I slept on his return in my rankings and in my Main Event league where he went for just $2 unopposed! I keep kind of a rolling update of the rankings in between the times I post and both Bradford & Pivetta are in the 60s

Jace Jung: Intrigued?

Jace is the Place: Jace Jung or Spencer Horwitz in AL only OBP?

Paul Sporer: Intrigued by Jace, but not as much as Horwitz. Consistent report I’ve seen on Jace is a question about whether or not he can handle premium velo. If he can, I think he can be similar to brother Josh. But Horwitz is already a pretty strong bat with a great plate approach. Eager to deep dive him this offseason as I suspect Horwitz will be someone I’m high on for next yr

Teach me how to Duggy: Jace Jung’s eye seems to have ported over from the minors. Is he a good OBP play over a more established but struggling bat like Verdugo?

Paul Sporer: Forgot to include that one w/the other Jung Qs

Devil Rays: Outlook on Taj and Springs ros? Taj has been soul crushing after that heater of a stretch and Springs still seems like he’s on a short leash although b2b good starts is promising – do you think they are only startable at home?

Paul Sporer: At least home only works for me for both right now while still including select roadies. Like I’m not skipping Springs at SEA next wk. But then he’s slated for at MIN after that and in a few weeks Taj has an at PHI/at CLE roadie that sounds terrifying right now

Guest: Reckless? I’m starting Cortes tonight in a 12t, 22 innings off the IP limit pace and 0.09 from gaining 2 ERA points but 0.07 from losing 2 points (and 0.23 ERA from maxing out at +6 points). K and QS are less fluid… assuming I get to the innings cap

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think it’s reckless. I’m down to run him in a lot of spots

Guest: ho hum it’s just Sean Manaea perfect thru 5 with 7 K on 61 pitches against BAL… (…what)

Paul Sporer: He’s been pretty good this year but yeah this is shocking and incredible!

Guest: why do I have to go to ESPN.com box scores instead of MLB.com to find strikes broken into called/swinging/foul/in-play?

Paul Sporer: No idea, but it’s 100000% the reason I still use ESPN boxes every day

Paul Sporer: LOOOOL tough way to lose the perfecto for Manaea (HBP)

Honkus Wagner: pour one out for reynaldo owners who dropped him. think his innings get limited at all down these final six weeks?

Paul Sporer: They should’ve poured out the one they drank before cutting ReyLo lol! I just couldn’t possibly cut him without seeing some bad news suggesting he’d be out for a long time. I don’t think they need to hard limit him bc they been soft limiting all year. He has 2 180+ IP seasons under his belt and frankly, they also need him!

Guest: other than the obvious – late season standings needs, new teams/roles in the offseason, etc – what can lead to changes in player valuations between September and February?

Paul Sporer: Offseason changes are really about studying the player pool deeper

Paul Sporer: Like any ranking I do in October hasn’t had every player analyzed in detail. That will happen over the season and in addition to what you mentioned changing value, just better understanding the player can move my thoughts on them up or down.

John Olerud’s Helmet: Howdy Mr Paul! Do you think the Angels call up Christian Moore this year? Seems like their new go to move to call up their 1st rd pick from the year and he’s hitting pretty well at AA.

Paul Sporer: I certainly won’t rule it out with LAA, but I’d bet against just bc they don’t really need to rush him and he’s had a loooong season

Sean: Are you at all intrigued by Tork? Grabbing any shares if you can?

Paul Sporer: I am, i quite liked him coming into the season and while I completely understood the demotion, it did not kill my interest. I like the whole youth movement the Tigers took w/the call-ups last week

Paul Sporer: And yes, I would pick up in 12s and deeper. Maybe just keep an eye out in 10s as they are probably just better 1B to invest in rn

Roger: I have Jared Jones and Jacob DeGrom on the IL. Would you drop Nick Pivetta for Jared Jones? Red Sox have BAL and NYY in the 1st week of my playoffs. PIT has MIA and KC.

Paul Sporer: Yes

Sean: Trying to decide between Parker meadows and josh lowe. Im in need of speed. outside of meadows platooning, do you lean one way or another?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have a heavy lean bc while Meadows probably won’t face every lefty, he does lead off when he does play so he’s in line to get more PA up there. I really think you can go with your fave of the 2.

Sean: What has happened to Luis Gil? It feels like he is borderline unrosterable lately with the whip damage he is causing

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s a tough start right now. I think he’s just wearing down and it’s not terribly unexpected given how little he threw the last 2 years

MikeD: Vargas, Malloy or Urshela? I need to slot someone at 3B for the ROS.

Paul Sporer: I still lean Vargas. I know he has a comical 16 wRC+ with the White Sox, but his plate skills are fine and a .108 BABIP is absolutely eating him alive. Urshela is gonna get some burn w/ATL and I don’t hate him as a glue fill-in, but definitely nothing special. Malloy was sent back out

Stevarino: Jackson Jobe, gonna get a call-up?

Paul Sporer: Probablyyyyy not. I think they’re just gonna soft pedal it with him and I don’t necessarily hate unless they somehow run off like 8 out of 10 and get back into fringe contention or some shit.

Al: What are your thoughts on Jordan Walker for Dynasty?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’m still in. We know he’ll pop off when he leaves St. Louis like Dylan Carlson is right now! Jokes aside, I haven’t quit him at all. We’re not even a full season into his career with just 544 PA. This year is a washout and I’ll gladly take him cheap next year as I suspect he’ll certainly go outside the top 200.

MS: Nola has @ATL/HOU/ATL beginning today….protecting or improving ratio is most important, does that change your start/sit decision making at all?

Paul Sporer: I think it creates some uncertainty that might lead to a sit, especially if we see another multi-walk gm next time out. That’d make 5 out of 6 if it happens and while he hasn’t fully paid for it yet (3.07 ERA in those 5 starts so far), the 5.10 FIP looming says the bill is coming due if the walks continue

Joe Shlabotnik: Views on Volpe and N Marte for next year? Good or just barely above average?

Paul Sporer: Both with a strong outlook still.

Volpe didn’t quite progress how many of us had hoped, but to this point he has progressed with an 11 pt. jump in wRC+ to 93. He did make a concerted effort to not be in the air so much bc he felt like he was too power focused leading to the .209 AVG last yr and while that has born some fruit on the AVG, it has hit the HR total. That said, Volpe is pacing for 30 SBs, up from last year’s 22. Barring a huge finish and/or playoff surge, his price will almost certainly drop this yr’s 107 mark and I’ll be there to buy the 3rd yr SS heading into his age-24 season.

Marte is still kind of in blank canvas territory with just 76 gms so far. Last yr’s 35 gms were great, this year’s 41 have sucked. Neither sample is terribly meaningful nor is the sample as a whole. So if you’ve liked Marte before, there’s no real reason to jump off the train just yet. He obviously dealt w/the self inflicted wound of the PED suspension this year which no doubt turned his season upside down.

Jack: You discussed Bailey earlier. Looking a year or two down the line, would you take him over Sean Murphy who doesn’t  seem to be the player he was a year or two ago.?

Paul Sporer: It’s really hard to project that far out w/Cs, but I can say that I’m a big Bailey fan and do believe he can play up another level or so w/the bat, rounding into like a 105 wRC+ w/20 HRs. I thought too much was made out of Murphy’s 55 September PA last yr as an indicator of his decline and I don’t think this year’s struggles make those who were worried “right” bc he opened the yr w/a 2 month oblique injury but he’s been fine w/a .728 OPS and 7 HR since June 1st, the real problem has been the lost PT. He’ll be 30 next year, though, so I’ll take 26 yr old Bailey instead

Vientos Hype: How much hype is Marky V going to have going into 2025? His homer/AB rate is insane

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, he’ll be a big helium guy with his believers growing over the fall and winter. He’s a classic all or nothing guy, though, so depending how this last month and a half goes, there is some risk of overrating. I am fan, though, so if things don’t get too wild w/the hype, I’m down to take a shot as he’s got major pop

Nate: What changed with Gavin Lux can we trust him now? Lux or Lowe at 2B?

Paul Sporer: The knee is finally feeling better and he trusts it more. Power comes from your base and he simply wasn’t trusting it enough early on. Ya just never know when a guy or IF a guy is truly gonna get back to 100% after a big injury. I was happy to jump on the Lux train this year bc I thought the price was fair and that he could be a big payoff if he’s healthy right away. He wasn’t so he ended up being cut after just 2 HRs through June, but this July/August version is a glimpse of the guy Lux can be and why I’ve been such a fan despite relatively little production thus far (99 wRC+ in 1390 PA).

Cole Part 2: ROS: Gerrit Cole vs. Bryce Miller + deGrom?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go with Cole. We’re still a few wks from deGrom and he’s a complete wildcard and while I’ve been super impressed w/Miller this year, I can’t take him over Cole

Andrew Abbott: Next two starts are @PIT and vs OAK. Has to be a start, no?

Paul Sporer: Yeah we’re definitely running him in those 2 in deeper leagues. Not a must-start in shallower stuff but streamable there

Stream Team: Are the Braves now a team I feel comfortable starting my mid level options against?

Paul Sporer: Yeah they just don’t have the depth of lineup that we rightly feared from them coming into the season. They did get Harris back, but losing Riley is a huge blow. There’s still talent there w/the likes of Soler/Ozuna/Olson capable of taking you bridge any time, but we aren’t running from the Braves w/competent starters down the stretch

Keith P.: Thanks Paul, Am I wrong or is James Wood making some very impressive adjustments in August (vs. July) with less chase and fewer ground balls?

Paul Sporer: Not wrong at all. Just in this small time in the majors, it’s been impressive to watch him piece things together get better and better. There’ll be downturns as there is with any youngster (and even veterans, this game is hard af!!) but the ceiling is the roof, let’s make it happen!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all absolutely brought it for a mid-August chat! I’ll be back next week, let’s stay focused and bring home these titles/cash spots in our leagues, take care!