Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 20th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!!!

The Shart Tank: Give me you Oneil Cruz ADP in 2026.

Paul Sporer: Man, that’s tough. I don’t think he falls tooo far off the Top 35-40 we saw in the Main Event this year bc while he is hitting just .207, he does have an NL-best 34 SBs along w/18 HRs. Plus there’ll still be a group of managers that believe there’s more in the tank to keep his price around the 50s-60s. I could probably entertain something in that range, but if he holds in the 40s, I’ll likely look elsewhere or go into a draft PLANNING to take him so I can cushion any sort of awful AVG

Guest: Johan Oviedo just dealt against the Jays for 5 innings and had a huge K% in his rehab. Any utility with him down the stretch?

Paul Sporer: I will def be diving into the start later today. I liked him as a prospect and even some last yr. Cooking a team as hot as Toronto was stands out for sure. PIT even got him 2 runs to be in line for the W!!! (I said “last yr” during the chat, but of course meant 2023 when he last pitched as he missed last yr recovering from TJ)

Tom: What’s your playoff strategy? Stick with the dudes who got you there or look for a hot bat?

Paul Sporer: Who can help me win now?? What you did to get me here doesn’t AUTOMATICALLY get you a spot. Now, that doesn’t mean I’m necessarily sitting sputtering stud for bench rando if sputtering stud is clearly just cold after a great season (so I’m not talking the stars who weren’t themselves all year).

Paul Sporer: That’s a long way of saying it depends, but the point I want to stress is to be open to playing the hot hands and don’t be TOO loyal if they aren’t the right play

Salty: True or False – Bobby Seymour is only going by “Bob” solely so he can qualify in your Player or Congressman game?  I mean, there’s no doubt I’d vote for him in the 4th district of Pinellas county if he ran (and if I lived there)…

Paul Sporer: LOOOOL, he has to be! I made reference to his name on a stream the other day bc it’s SUCH a throwback. Not only does he fit congressman or reliever, but also feels like a solid LF from the 1930s-40s who popped 25 HRs a year in a solid 12-yr career lol

Idiotic Failson: Why did you let me start Aaron Nola his first game back?

Paul Sporer: you begged me!

Slayed: Wheels seem to have come off for Slade C. Drop for Perkins or an RP (Cano? Brash?)? (Saves only league)

Paul Sporer: Ya he was a fun streamer who could re-emerge if he regains his stuff and has some good matchups, but I have ZERO issues moving on from him

Patrick: Would you start ohtani as a hitter or a pitcher tonight? He’s supposed to go 5.

Paul Sporer: I gotta take the bat in Coors

RAGBRAI: Does Woody play for the Brewers next year? Or is it dependent on the ROS?

Paul Sporer: Def dependent on rest of season IMO

Beano: why does AZ keep pitching ERod?

Paul Sporer: They’re payin him and it’s not like they are flush w/better options

Messin’ Around: Are you jumping in on Messick in CLE? I was sad that Cantillo got demoted, but a little excited about Messick. Him or Dustin May?

Paul Sporer: I have some interest in Messick (was also sad about our boy Cantillo), but I’m gonna roll w/May here. I’m a May skeptic in general, but I can’t deny the improved results with skill changes behind it so far in Boston. I’ll trust that over a rookie debuting late-season. Yes, it’s still a 1.51 WHIP in the 3 Boston starts, but I’m intrigued by the 18% K-BB and 17 Ks in 15.3 IP

2B: McClain or Semein ROS?

Paul Sporer: Semien for me. He’s back in a dip after the June surge, but still better than anything we’re seeing out of McLain these days

AC: Been loving Andrew Vaughn as my CI in a 10tm redraft, but I see that Rhys Hoskins just started a rehab assignment.  Assuming Rhys gets back in a few weeks, how do you see MIL handling playing time in the final weeks at 1B and DH (with Yelich already splitting ABs with Contreras there)?

Paul Sporer: Think it could mean more outright days off for Contreras as they come down the stretch (which isn’t a bad thing if they have the lead to do it) orrr if the division lead does tighten, he plays C everyday and then DH rotates Yelich/Hoskins probably based on handedness while Hoskins also cuts into some of Vaughn’s 1B time despite both being righties and no clear platoon. It’s a good problem to have extra bats and as is often the case, these situations figure themselves out w/another injury somewhere

Beano: Is the Locklear experiment over? He may be a drop for me if he isn’t gonna play!

Paul Sporer: Over in terms of short term fantasy upside, yes. Over in the long haul, definitely not. And that could even mean he re-emerges down the road in Sept., but I have zero issues moving on from him rn

Guest: I watched Marsee on my wire for 5 days before he was scooped up even though i needed steals… because i thought houston might fix sanchez (who, in theory, can also steal bases). i am going to beat myself up forever if it costs me

Paul Sporer: Oh noooo. I do love Sanchez so I’m not gonna smoke you there, but I’m a big Marsee guy and was trying to get him everywhere I could upon arrival so I wish I could’ve coaxed you into scoop him

Guest: Thoughts on braxton ashcraft ROS?

Paul Sporer: Very intrigued by the talent. Was even interested enough to run him a bit today before he was pushed for Oviedo (in fact, he might’ve never been ticketed for that start, I think the sites were just guessing who’d go and slotted him in, I can’t recall 100%). But ya, Ashcraft is firmly on my radar as a streamer and probably a team streamer in deeper lgs so we’re holding on reserves when not starting

RAGBRAI: Pagan didn’t pitch in last two save opportunities. Is he hurt, resting, demoted?

Paul Sporer: Probably just a cooling period after a couple blown in a row

Happy Trails: I was able to grab McClain for his brief spark of life, but looking to move on in an OBP league. Do you think Lenyn Sosa is worth an add for power? Or should I go back to Wenceel and see how many steals he can get me? MI is bleak…

Paul Sporer: Not sure my Tigers homerism, but I lean toward Wenceel of the duo.

tortycraig: Mason Miller’s FG page defaults to fielding stats, even when you select ‘Pitching’ ?? Don’t know where else to share this! Thanks for all your work!

Paul Sporer: Very bizarre, will let the team know!!

Paul Sporer: Sent it off, thanks for that

Guest: the fielding thing is a bug that’s been occasionally happening to player pages this year, not just miller

Paul Sporer: OK, ty!

Eddie Levine: Do you prefer N Lowe or Karros ROS? thanks

Paul Sporer: Probably still Lowe in Fenway

Yes or Nodolo?: Someone dropped Nick Lodolo in my 10 tm H2H QS league. Should I drop any of Scherzer, Bradish, or McLean for him? Or I guess I could drop a bat like Tork for him, who is only on my bench because Vaughn is still playing well. I’m more hesitant to do that though. Trying to stabilize my rotation that has been a bit rocky over the last few weeks.

Paul Sporer: I’d be inclined to go for him over Bradish

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: Datt Mamon indeed

Guest: You have faith that McMahon is going to be more than mediocre in NY?

Paul Sporer: I do have some hope, but I think he could be a 110-120 wRC+ kinda guy pushing upper-20s HR totals w/a full season as a Yankee next year

Jackson B: I added Adell 10-12 weeks ago when somebody got hurt in OF, and he’s rewarded me, for the most part, our 5×5 H2H league which uses OBP, not BA.  Should I draft this fool next year?  Or is 2025 The World’s Toolsiest Ballplayer’s career year?

Paul Sporer: There will be gallons of virtual ink spilled over Adell this offseason trying to figure out if he has fully emerged as a reliable fantasy asset or still has a punishing floor that could lead to some overdrafting. I’m unfortunately leaning toward the latter with him bc while he is undeniably better this year, he isn’t fundamentally different from the guy we’re all too used to

JoeG14: With Bieber back I need to drop one : Senga , Gavin W, Eury, Giolito, CJavier, Zebby ? Thanks

Paul Sporer: I think it’s Zebby, tbh. I’m not sold that Bieber is going to be all that useful (I hope to be wrong as I like Biebs) but I can see going for him as a stud vet on a good team and so while I am a big Zebby fan, he’s just not consistently delivering fantasy heat for us

Not telling you: If a question to you is not defined, do you answer as if a redraft 5×5 YTD rather than H2H,  dynasty or points.

Paul Sporer: Yes I answer as a standard 5×5 roto unless told otherwise

Foptop: Would you drop Colby Thomas for Dylan beavers?

Paul Sporer: Sure, as his PT seems a bit sturdier at this point

Guest: How do you evaluate age for hitters in dynasty? For example, would you feel more comfortable with Machado over the next few years or someone 10 years younger with upside but less proven like Matt Shaw?

Paul Sporer: I think those sort of questions are best answered depending on your roster construction of what you’d want more given where you are in the win curve. In a vacuum, I’m more trusting of the Machado types as opposed to constantly betting on the come w/rookies. Gotta have a mix, can’t just be all oldheads, but the 28 and older group gets criminally downgraded in dynasty leagues

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out! Thanks for filling the queue deep into August. Back next week!