Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 16th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Welcome everyone, thanks for coming out!!

MochiBetts: So are we in the rock bottoming of Jarren Duran and he’ll regress more to the mean in time for playoffs or is this all she wrote for the Cinderella story this season?

Paul Sporer: Looks like some standard BABIP regression so far this month and it just haaad to come as he was toting a greater than .400 mark for a good bit of time. I think he’s done enough to hold a bit longer and see if he emerges out of this… and i say that as someone who was skeptical on him initially

Paul Sporer: TORKS DORKS STAND UP!!!! #20!!!

Paul Sporer: (after a Riley Greene bomb 2 batters earlier, too!)

chris: grayson rodriguez has looked great since coming back. is he getting close to auto start territory?

Paul Sporer: He’s there for me! Basically only the toughest of matchups would I consider sitting (ATL, LAD, Coors maybe)

Insert Witty Name Here: Which Williams(on) do you prefer? Gavin Williams or Brandon Williamson?

Paul Sporer: Gavin by a healthy margin. More bankable core skills

Guest: Do you still believe in Cristian Javier? It seems to me that his stuff has regressed due to fatigue.

Paul Sporer: Very concerned and definitely sitting him in a lot of spots. Still having a hard time cutting him in anything but maybe a 10, but can’t start him consistently anywhere right now. Just doesn’t look like himself at all

chris: hi paul. keibert ruiz has been rolling lately. in a 1C h2h ops league, would you grab him over will smith for the stretch run if batting average is a need?

Paul Sporer: Even with Ruiz rolling, gotta stick w/Will Smith. Just definitely better overall

Insert Witty Name Here: Last week you mentioned something about not wanting to be the guy ripping people off in trades.  However, what if I’m just good at negotiating and able to convince the other team the trade is good for them too? I should be able to sleep well at night, right?

Paul Sporer: I mean if you’re negotiating in good faith and “winning” the trades, that’s fine. But purposely trying to get over on people is where I don’t feel great. Try to improve your team and give your trade partner players to improve their team

Farhandrew Zaidman: Little bit of a weird question, but should we consider 2023 a win for the Nats? Good development from Gray, Gore, Keibert, and Abrams, got some prospects for Candy, looks like Thomas and Meneses can absolutely play…

Paul Sporer: Not weird at all, love this Q and do believe the Nats have plenty to feel good about. Think some of the Gray/Gore growth has faded a bit, but both reaching 162+ IP would be a win just so show they can make it the 30+ starts. But yeah, I think you outline why they have plenty of reasons to feel good about this season despite the record (which they knew would stink)

GettinRowdy: Is Luzardo wearing down?  A couple clunkers following an excellent stretch.  Also, just want to pity myself after stomaching last weeks pitching performances of Luzardo, Taillon, Oviedo and Nelson

Paul Sporer: Feels like a lot of younger arms are hitting that dog days wall here in August. Like Javier, I’m not cutting him, but benching him in spots makes some sense to see him work through these struggles

Guest: Thanks for the chat. Dynasty league question, 16 teams…
Who is the one to keep long-term: Anthony Volpe or Max Fried? And how close is it?

Paul Sporer: I’m going Volpe there! Generally lean hitter in dynasty leagues when it’s close like this and while I’ve always been a Fried guy, I gotta go the young power-speed stud up the middle!

dc: who are your top 10 fantasy baseball picks for 2024?

Paul Sporer: We’ll either have a podcast or article outlining a Top 25 or something for next yr but I don’t have a Top 10 off the dome. We did discuss Elly as a 1st rounder and highlighted some other guys we’re considering next yr, too – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1203-is…

Alex: The people have spoken, Paul. We want Ty Blech.

Paul Sporer: as long as I don’t forget, it shall be done bc it’s perfect!

chris: which combo would you prefer going forward for the playoffs (all needs equal)? mclain + friedl or maikel garcia + melendez? i dont love friedls inconsistent PT vs lefties and mclain has slowed a bit

Paul Sporer: I lean to the double Cincy!

Farhandrew Zaidman: Any explanation why the Tigers are so good in division, but dog shit out of division?

Paul Sporer: Mostly due to a dogshit division

Guest: Paul, Paul, Paul. I’m spinning. I dropped J. Walker but can’t tell if he’s coming alive or it’s just Oakland. Which two would you rather have for general Util between Walker, CES, Varsho and Royce Lewis?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s mostly just OAK with Jordan Walker. I’m doing Lewis for sure but then I’m torn on the 2nd one. I like Varsho’s pwr/spd but that AVG is a nightmare… yet I still gravitate toward him. I think CES is 4th on the list with Walker 3rd and pretty close to Varsho for me

JB: I’m stuck with both Tovar and Adames in a 6×6 OPS dynasty league, with J. Merrill waiting in the wings. Worth cutting bait and selling for pennies on the dollar for either, or do I ride it out and keep one or both?

Paul Sporer: I’m inclined to ride it out. SS depth isn’t bad to have, either

Farhandrew Zaidman: Buehler came out with a take that the league should give a Rookie cy young award, and call it the Fernando Valenzuela. Let’s make it happen!

Paul Sporer: Fantastic idea!

Ed Figuringitouta: Do we think that Bryce Harper will have 20+ appearances at 1b by seasons end.

Paul Sporer: Ooh, probably not unless there’s an injury that takes someone like Bohm or Hall out of the 1B mix

Ted: Lance Lynn back to set and forget?

Paul Sporer: Yep, the Dodgers seem to have executed the fix we were hoping for!

dc: messi in philly yesterday, springsteen tonight.  little leaguers from the area in williamsport tonight.  Philly is the hub of the world.

which one do you go to?

Paul Sporer: I’d love to check out the LLWS, but Messi Mania is a close 2nd

chris: is maeda actually good? i know his recent stretch of opponents hasnt been the highest of quality. but hes been killing it regardless

Paul Sporer: He absolutely is! Pretty much always has been, tbh. A little off in ’21, but always a highly skilled pitcher. I was actually talking about how he hasn’t been getting his due for this hot streak: 2.36 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 25% K-BB in 50 IP coming into today (couple HRs have put 3 ER in 4 IP but also has 6 Ks)

Jinho: Interest in Lawrence Butler? Short sample size alert, but he has 4 Barrels in 5 Games (25%, with a 111 Max EV) and a palatable 15% K rate. I know it’s extremely early but does he pique your interest in 5 OF leagues (12-15 tm context)?

Paul Sporer: Fringy in 15 tm 5 OF, just not enough R/RBI juice in OAK so even their glimmers of goodness in the lineup can be tough to roll with in anything but the deepest formats, but Butler is on my radar

Cd: Will Yoshida start hitting the ball in the air? Or is he a drop in 10T for someone hot? Feeling very conflicted

Paul Sporer: He’s the 20th ranked OF which might feel weird given the 12 HR/8 SB seeming light, but the AVG/R/RBI really sustain him. I’d hold, gotta have someone worse to cut IMO

Toronto: Eflin has had a few bad starts lately.  Any concern?

Paul Sporer: Nah, seems to always bounce back after a dud: 5, 0, 5, 0, 1, 6 ER totals over his L6 starts

konstantinov: why won’t dusty play yainer every day

Paul Sporer: Especially w/Abreu out! But thankfulyl Yanier Diaz is C-eligible so not playing daily is totally OK and he’s still raking when he plays!

Youngins: days of SPs hitting 200 innings regularly a season a thing of the past? new norm is 160 – 180?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, there’s a handful of 200+ each yr, but now we’re at a point where we should consider making 150 the qualifying figure for the ERA title

Last Starter: Hi Paul! Bello, Sears, or Medina?

Paul Sporer: I like ’em in the order you list ’em

Sorry if I’m asking this twice…can’t remember: Can Manoah get back on track next season?

Paul Sporer: He certainly can and I’d imagine his price will be low enough to take the gamble if you still like him

Paul Sporer: FYI – gotta wrap up a little early today as I have a pod guest appearance coming up so I’ll only be able to get a few more Qs!

Cole World: Cole “Best Pitcher Named Cole (first name division)” Irvin gets A’s 2x. How shallow is he a start for both?

Paul Sporer: There might be a team or 2 in a 10-teamer that can swing it but mostly just 12s and deeper

Matt: How to you balance maximizing potential vs minimizing damage? For ex, 9 starts left this week, 11 options. Definitely sitting T Anderson vs TBR, Medina vs BAL. But should I also sit Miley @LAD, Clev @CHC and only go with 8 starts?

Paul Sporer: At this juncture, my standings are driving questions like that. How susceptible are you to gaining/losing pts in ERA/WHIP. Let that be your guide on how risky/safe you play things down the stretch

playing for the future: Urias a starter for the Dodgers next year or do they turn to their farm? Pepiot, Stone, Frasso, etc.

Paul Sporer: I imagine they will spend money on some starters, but I’m not sure if Urias is in their plans to bring back

Chickie: Drop India for Royce in a Dynasty with no contracts?

Paul Sporer: I would, yes

Oddball Herrera: What does it mean for Kyle ROS that he is not fully a Brad but is merely Brad-ish?

Paul Sporer: I think it helps him… never wanna go full Brad!

At the Taj: If Taj Bradley comes back up, what level pitcher are you dropping for him in an AL only?

Paul Sporer: I mean I’d cut my lowest P, but I’m not chasing him. I’ve done the Taj experience this year and it’s been a pain in the ass. Still really like him long-term, though

Paul Sporer: OK, I gotta head out! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

Kevin: Is Hunter Brown going to the ‘pen permanently? Can’t believe they’d rather roll with this version of Javier.

Paul Sporer: No, not permanent at all IMO

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real!