Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 14th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Zebulon 5: Zebby is one of the most fun names in baseball right now, yeah?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely!! I love Zebulon! It’s not just a fun name, either, he did well in the minors and has a profile that can absolutely find success, especially with Joe Ryan’s injury clearing the playing time path. I’m on the Zebby Matthews train to see where this goes

Paul Sporer: New SP rankings are live, btw, in case you missed ’em in the Chat post: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-in-season-starting-pitcher-rankings…

Paul!: Too early to forecast, but please do: Langford or Chourio ROS? Beyond? It seems like Langford will never be able to hit the fastball, while Jackson is making strides all around…

Paul Sporer: Love both but firm lean to Chourio between the 2. He just has the more robust fantasy profile right now and I think he will in the future, too, especially if we don’t see Langford’s power come together.

Roger: Hi Paul. I have starting staff of Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Jack Flaherty, Bailey Ober, Cole Ragans, Taj Bradley, Hunter Brown and Nick Pivetta. I also have Jared Jones and Jacob DeGrom on IL. I like my staff and don’t want to drop anyone to activate Jared Jones & Jacob DeGrom. But if you had to, who would you drop?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I love this group and would prefer to hold everyone, but if someone has to go, it’s Pivetta. He’s the lowest ranked by far in my latest update.

Dougly: Should I look to move Taj or do you think he’ll get back on track?

Paul Sporer: Both could be yes, tbh. I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to shop him even if we like him to get back on track just bc TB could start curbing his IP down the stretch if they fall deeper out of contention. Not that they have to as he did throw just over 140 last yr, but it’s on the table w/them bc of how they manage their arms. I still have him ranked 30th so the confidence isn’t gone, but I’m very much open to shopping him to see where the broader market is at. If they come weak w/offers bc of his last 3 starts, then hold, but if he’s still drawing strong returns, I’d say sell for this year

Paul!: Nick Martinez? He’s been lights out since he returned to the rotation (albiet a sss).

Paul Sporer: He has and I really liked Martinez w/SDP last yr, but immediately jumped of when he went to CIN bc of his HRs and that park. He was a career 1.4 HR9 guy coming into the year, but has sliced it in half (thanks in part to a 6% HR/FB) rate which has turned him into a more usable arm for sure… but still not at home: 4.41 ERA/1.35 WHIP at home (49 IP); 1.71/0.68 on the road (42 IP) so I like him as a Team Streamer. Then it comes down to how much you believe in HR suppression and/or the home-road splits bc KCR/OAK/MIL line up as his next 3, all at home. If I’m in more of a chase mode where I need some longshots to catch fire, I could take a chance on the 2-step next wk w/OAK & MIL, but otherwise I might look elsewhere for a streamer w/a better upcoming schedule

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: Day Baseball with an ace pitching! LOVE it.

Paul Sporer: Varland putting up a nice battle w/Ragans, too, so it’s been a helluva game between 2 contenders!

Emil: According to your rankings you would keep Festa over Zebby the rest of the season correct?

Paul Sporer: I mean, in the straight ranking sure, but they are 6 spots apart and I was ranking Zebby blind based on his #s and the reports I’ve read on him. I’m not sure I have them much different, I like both, so pick your fave

V for Vendetta: With Caminiero up, I’ve got an extra bat (daily moves, AL, OBP league). Who do I cut? Andrew Vaughn, Varsho, Verdugo?

Paul Sporer: amazing username w/this question lol

Paul Sporer: (imagine if that’s all I said and didn’t answer it)

Paul Sporer: Duggie has to go. He’s been in the tank for months at this point while Vaughn is on a bit of an upswing and Varsho is just solid-average.

Spaceman: Hey Paul, in a saves/hold  redraft league is Reed Garrett valuable?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so, he really came unglued before the injury and wasn’t really accumulating a ton of SV/HD even during his heyday early on this year so I’d look elsewhere

Ray: What’s going on with Taj Bradley? 3 clunkers in a row…

Paul Sporer: There are definitely specifics we can get into, but broadly it’s standard pitching volatility from a 23-yr old

Paul Sporer: A couple HRs in the MIA/HOU starts and then 12 base runners v. STL, so assuming he’s healthy, he’s battling his stuff a bit

Rickey: Is Jake McCarthy’s hot streak a sign he’s for real, and is he a keeper in dynasty leagues?

Paul Sporer: It’s akin to what we saw in 2022 w/a better K% rate and we saw that it didn’t hold w/the meager 2023. All told, he’s like a 10-12 HR/35-40 SB guy in a full season and he’s playing every day right now. I think anyone with legit 40 SB capability is pretty viable in a dynasty. He pushed Alek Thomas back to the minors so they are probably looking at Gurriel-McCarthy-Carroll as the starting 3 OFs next year

Jake: Is Seth Lugo’s recent performance a result of regression to his underlying stats (LOB%, fip, etc), or a result of his workload? Maybe both?

Paul Sporer: The schedule pairing up w/some regression of those stats mostly. The velo is still holding firm, but that doesn’t mean the dog days aren’t hitting him a bit. He hasn’t just fallen apart or anything because despite the elevated ERA (5.73) his FIP is still a not horrible 4.19

Paul Sporer: He’s got a home 2-step next wk that I’m definitely not skipping (LAA/PHI) but then Seth Lugo has a trip to HOU the following week that is far from must start

V for Vendetta: I could also try to flip Vaughn for Correa. Or just cut Verdugo.

Paul Sporer: I don’t hate that deal, but I’d still cut Verdugo

Festa!: Festa is ranked with the team streamers. (Thanks for the ranks!) What does that mean for Texas?

Paul Sporer: Texas can still make me uneasy bc I know on a given night they can go off, but at some point I can’t ignore the 26th ranked wOBA v. righties for the year and as such, I’m gonna start an intriguing young arm like Festa

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: Where was DL Hall on the ranking list? I didn’t see him. He has RP eligibility in my points league.

Paul Sporer: I don’t think he’s in their rotation – Peralta, Rea, Myers, Civale, Montas, so I didn’t rank him

Dave: Presuming no public red flags, where are you ranking Alcantara going into next year?

Paul Sporer: 40s? He will be 18 months removed from his TJ so I have a little more confidence than a standard 13-15 mo. TJ returner, but I can’t skyrocket him back into the upper class bc we don’t know what kinda workload he’s gonna get and volume is a huge part of his game

Burned out: Would you stop j hoffman for kopech rn in a NSVH league?

Paul Sporer: Kopech has looked amazing w/LAD while Hoff is in a bit of lull so I don’t mind the hot hand play. I think Hoffman should be fine and will continue to get his share, but Kopech is seemingly always coming into leveraged and quickly becoming a big part of their pen

KC PAIN: How terrified of Luis Robert should someone be in dynasty?  Guy looks like Eloy with one good year and hype.   He didnt even play in their W over Yanks. The difference in effort is noticeable at times.  Yeah, team sucks, but try man.

Paul Sporer: Very… guys like that are super scary in long-term leagues because they are often just SO volatile.

Adenolith: I’ve never felt very good about my mid-season adds on offense and this year was particularly bad. I felt like I was always picking the wrong guys. I’m pretty good at finding pitching though – looking at velo, swinging strikes, fip, etc… Is there anything analogous on the hitting side I should be paying more attention to that could help me up my game?

Paul Sporer: K%, BB% is always a great place to start w/hitters, too. See how they control the zone. From there, the power indicative metrics from StatCast and the like can be insightful and in fact had 2 recent successes that paid off if you stayed bought in on the metrics despite the meager results.

Michael Toglia from COL and Lawrence Butler from OAK were smacking the piss outta the ball w/little show for. Neither was making enough consistent contact (>30% K for both) but their power was evident w/premium Barrel & Hard Hit rates. Thru July 4th, Toglia had a .664 OPS, .205 BABIP, 9 HR, 3 SB in 154 PA; since – .892 OPS, .284 BABIP, 10 HR, 2 SB in 135 PA (still K’ing a lot at 30%) | Butler had just a .529 OPS thru June w/2 HR & 4 SB in 150 PA and has a 1.032 OPS w/11 HR & 6 SB in 138 PA

Paul Sporer: On July 14th, both Toglia and Butler hit 3 HRs!

Channel Z: Hi Paul, Yepez or Dezenzo ROS at 1B? Thanks again.

Paul Sporer: I’m sticking w/Yepez, but Dezenzo is definitely on my radar. Gimme the locked in PT from the more battle-tested guy, though

Guest: need to pick up catcher in 5×5 league with power have Col Diaz but don’t need average as i have batting average locked up. Like Dingler Higgy or Melendez. Any thoughts

Roe: i failed to mention its a 2 catcher league and I also have Murphy from Atl.

Paul Sporer: Lemme get Melendez outta those 3. I love a non-catching catcher!

Dave: Much like Roger above, I have both Jared Jones and Jacob deGrom sitting on my IL… care to venture a guess as to combined IP for those two ROS?

Paul Sporer: 35-40?

Pistol Pete: Best bet to be closer for their team next season – Justin Martinez, Tyler Holton or Ben Joyce?

Paul Sporer: Joyce for sure. I think he is being shaped to the dude in the 9th for a while for them even if there’s ups and downs the rest of this year like we’ve seen recently

Guest: What’s your current view on TORKELSON for a dynasty league?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’m still mostly. It’s absolutely put-up or shut-up next year but I’m not jumping off because of 230 bad PA this year

Nick: Thanks for chatting!  Would you cut Springer for Joc Pederson, Jo Adell, or Matt Vierling in a 12 team mixed head to head league?

Paul Sporer: He was so back in July and then gets saddled with a .174 BABIP in August. I’d probably line up the schedules for those 3 before making a decision. If Arizona has like 1-2 lefties over the next 2-3 wks then Joc is appealing. Bevy of lefties for LAA or DET would give Adell/Vierling some extra appeal. But without any major scheduling edge, I’m inclined to stick w/Springer as that BABIP will likely regress and do so soon

Roderick Gray: How optimistic is it to expect good starts out of G-Rod for fantasy playoffs? Seeing “back in September” and am wondering if one good start might be worth it.

Paul Sporer: It’s pretty optimistic and I’m not sure I share that optimism. Now, just bc my expectations light doesn’t mean I can’t find a reason to stash. But it has to be a truly wide open roster slot as I don’t want to compromise my team w/a spot I need for the 2-3 wks just to hope Grayson Rodriguez does something in Sept

The Gall: Pretty significant fall for Gallen in your rankings from former ace status, but not much different from last year, a few K’s less and a few walk more. What gives? Have we seen his best or is this a blip?

Paul Sporer: I had concerns about how 2023’s workload might impact him this year and my 19th preseason rank was pretty low compared to ADP. He inched a bit to 17th in July but the concerns remained especially as we get deeper in the season. He isn’t WAY off of last year, but a 2.5% jump in BB rate is pretty significant and it’s been even worse since returning from the IL at 10%  with just a 19% K rate, resulting in a 4.37 ERA/1.44 WHIP. He’s still in the lineup for most formats, but not the blind start we thought he’d be coming into the season.

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: Rolling out Fedde in a two step next week?

Paul Sporer: In 12s and deeper, almost assuredly. Not a must-start in 10s w/MIL and at MIN on the docket

otispdriftwood: 2 questions! V Belozzo – is this just some luck or is he someone to consider rostering?
Similar question regarding A Call.
Thanks

Paul Sporer: I was hoping someone would ask about Bellozo!! I took a shot on him for the ARI/CHC 2-step next wk as a potential start and I was worried that if he did well v. PHI, his price would surge. We’ll see how much the price rises, but I’m happy w/my $3 pickup! He’s leaning hard on that .234 BABIP to be this good, but he doesn’t walk guys and has MIA’s park giving him some cushion, too, so even a high-3.00s/low-4.00s ERA with a 1.15 or better WHIP has appeal in 15-teamers (which is the league size I scooped him in)

Barry: What happned with Blackburn against Oakland? Was it a mistake picking him up over guys like Festa and Zebby?

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think it was a mistake. It didn’t work out, but that’s not the same as it being a mistake. Process v. Results. The process of starting Blackburn in a 2-step at home made sense, especially over an MLB debuting Zebby Matthews v. KCR and even rookie David Festa going to TEX for 1 start. (like I said earlier, I’m open to starting Festa at TEX in a vacuum, but I preferred a Blackburn 2-step a good bit more). OAK isn’t a walkover offense and some commenters even preached their concerns for Blackburn on Tuesday’s SP chart and I agree it wasn’t some slam dunk must start, but it made plenty of sense to run him. Let’s hope he can salvage the week this weekend v. MIA

Holes in my Sox: I over-invested in Red Sox pitching (Houck, Kutter, Pivetta) and it’s starting to get ugly. I saw they all downgraded in your ranks. How deep a league is needed to start @BAL: a 12, a 15,  AL only, red sox only?

Paul Sporer: Running Red Sox was so good early on!

Paul Sporer: Even though Kutter still ended w/a whimper yesterday, he didn’t give up a HR so that was positive at least! I thiiink I’d just pass on both in BAL. I know Walltimore helps a bit for mitigating their HRs, but they still have to face the Baltimore offense and bust potential is massive which is precisely what I’m trying to avoid in the stretch run (I obviously want to avoid them earlier in the season, but we have more time to recover when they occur in May or June)

See my Vest: Is Will Vest the closer in Detroit?

Paul Sporer: He’s in the mix, I don’t think he’s the guy

Line up: Swap Walker B in for Hayden Birdsong – (NL only)What say you? Thanks

Paul Sporer: I’m OK going with Walker Buehler there despite how un-Buehler-like he’s looked this year

Dave: If you were Scott Harris what do you do about the Tigers SS situation next year?

Paul Sporer: Oh you’re 10000% looking for the replacement right now even w/3 yrs left on the Baez deal.

Your Name: Is Christian Moore on your radar? The Angels already have him at AA and there is a chance that he gets called up this year.

Paul Sporer: Not for this year, no, but for next year, absolutely. This is the LA way right now, they are bringing guys quick to the majors. I know he’s been cutting up A/AA so far, but like Langford last yr, I’m not gonna get too excited about trying to get him to the majors this yr

Guest: I had a method where I wrote a script to take each player and go through their season day by day (with a minimum # days on either end of the point) to see if there is a point in the season where Half 1 and Half 2 are statistically different. Then I look for guys where that inflection point is around Mid-End June. Do you think this is a good way to identify non-closing RPs who made adjustments under market value for the stretch? Or do you think I’m just getting hot streaks?

Paul Sporer: I mean, even if the answer is yes to the last question, you might still be identifying SVs-friendly options, especially in volatile bullpens where the hot hand will get the opportunities

Paul Sporer: Alright y’all, I gotta head out. I wanted to go a bit longer since I was taking longer to go deeper on some answers. Feel free to leave comments in the SP Rankings update if you want to discuss anyone further. Take care, everyone!

Love Is A Battenfield: Is Alex Call anything other than a hot hand to ride until he comes back to earth (which may have started yesterday with the 0-5).

Paul Sporer: Ooh someone else asked about him, too… kind of a volume, hot-hand play who could bring some SBs, but my expectations are light… deep league play only

Paul Sporer: OK, bye for real!