Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 3rd, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Anon: Need help on the corners. Should I drop any of Cronenworth, France or Vaughn for E. Duran?

Paul Sporer: Maybe Vaughn, but that group is pretty similar overall

Guest: Cutter Krawford or Tanner Houck?  Houck had the A’s, but 10

Paul Sporer: Crawford for me. I like Houck so I’m down for both if you can finagle it, but if it’s just one, gimme Kutter

Mike: What are the stabilization rates on power metrics,K rate and plate discipline?

Paul Sporer: This is an older post, but I believe these rates are still useful — https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

Sabey Sabes: Is Kris Bryant toast? – Signed a Cubs fan who is sad yet relieved.

Paul Sporer: Too early to say for sure this year, let’s get some series in Colorado

the butler did it: I worry that the Lawrence Butler experiment is proving a mistake. K’s still a problem. Drop for Hicks or Foscue in AL OBP?

Paul Sporer: It’s too early to say anything is working or not. That said, I don’t mind moving off Butler if you prefer one of those 2. Butler is K’ing at 27% clip, but also has a 14% BB rate and his .231 BABIP should rise w/time. I lean toward Hicks of those 3, though

Mike: Kutter Crawford or Tanner Houck?  Crawford was more valued coming into the season and Houck had the A’s, but 10 K’s for Houck seems actionable.

Paul Sporer: Sorry it seems you hit enter too early on your first one, so there’s the full question. Doesn’t change my outlook, but just wanted your full thoughts to get in there.

Paul Sporer: Gotta have someone else that you could cut for Houck

Sears Catatlog: JP Sears got shelled but Stuff+ was solid. Is he a pickup? Francis would be the cut.

Paul Sporer: Totally fine w/that move, especially w/Sears getting DET next

Fangraph’s Lurker: someone dropped Tork in my 5 x 5 h2h 12teamer put a waiver in and drop mcneil or bell? I have vlad and steer as 1b options

Paul Sporer: Probably Bell

Why not Zoidberg?: 8-team h2h, I’ve been offered Gunnar and Jordan Montgomery or Tyler O’Neill for my Lindor. Unless Turang keeps swiping bags and Trea Turner steps it up, I think my speed is already in the middle of the pack. Worthwhile to pursue a trade like this anyway or should I be looking for something else?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have any issues w/this deal

JV: My team is off to a terrible start in bags.  Guys that need to run for me are – Stott, S Marte, Hayes, Lindor, Goldy, C. Walker, and Gleyber.  Am I light?

Paul Sporer: A little light, but Marte could be a gamechanger if healthy. Don’t freak out too much just yet

Pokey Reese talks closers: Is David Robertson a wise pickup at this time?  How about Justin Lawrence who is surprisingly just 10% rostered on Yahoo.  Would you drop Payamps for Lawrence?  Thanks for the chats!

Paul Sporer: I think I prefer D Rob behind a shaky Leclerc over Lawrence. Lawrence is probably the guy but I just don’t want a Colorado closer

E Street Live: Paxton or Cobb?  deep mix roto

Paul Sporer: Riding with Paxton while he’s upright and healthy

Triston McKenzie: We worried about my diminished velo or still too early to draw any conclusion?

Paul Sporer: Too early, but at least worth noting and keeping tabs on it, especially w/his lengthy injury history

Guest: Rentifo with a start !!!

Paul Sporer: Finallyyyy! Not sure why Luis Rengifo has had such a hard time getting in the lineup

I have too many catchers: Thanks for doing the chat! Should I drop rooker, heim, or o’hoppe for one of nootbar or benson?

Paul Sporer: Sounds like a 1 C league, so you should move on and cut one of them. I’m a Heim guy so lean toward keeping him but it’s a toss-up w/those 2. I love Nootbaar, but he’s just heading out for a rehab stint and in shallower leagues, I want guys who are playing so gimme Benson

Activate Sonny Gray: Drop 1: Gavin Stone/Garrett Crochet/Tyler Wells to activate Gray when he returns.

Paul Sporer: Probably just play the schedule on that. I think I like them in the order you’ve listed ’em

Joe L: Where would you rank Robbie Ray among starting pitchers when he comes back?

Paul Sporer: Just way too early to say such a thing with any confidence. He’s not expected back until the 2H and the SP pool will be vastly different. Lightly ballparking it, maybe Top 60ish? But reallyyyy hard to say

Adenolith: Any tips on roster churn? I feel like I missed on as many guys as I hit  last season.

Paul Sporer: It’s all league dependent, tbh, so I’d need a lot more info to really help. Shallower leagues, I move quicker. 15 teamers, I stay patient the upper 2/3rds to 3/4ths of my roster

Andrew: Hold on Tristan McKenzie? Bad results but Stuff+ wasn’t alarming. Or drop for Singer?

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna hold another start or two. Singer was impressive, but I’m giving McKenzie more than 1 start

Mike: Turang and Conforto on a hot streak or ROS potential?  Are both recommended adds in 12-team or deeper without further context of league, team, etc.?

Paul Sporer: In 12 teams & shallower, don’t worry about rest of season. Think about things in 3-5 wk chunks. I like Conforto while healthy. Turang if you need speed is cookin, so also worth a look. Both viable 12-teamer scoops

Go Puk Yourself: No question, just relieved I dropped Puk for Crochet in all my leagues. Yearly reminder that spring training means nothing

Paul Sporer: Let’s goooo!!! Nice move. Doesn’t mean that ST means nothing, though. One player not performing in 2 starts after a good spring doesn’t invalidate every ounce of spring. The data has shown that core skills (Ks, BBs, power output, SB attempts) have some value when assessing players. There will always be outliers. And with all due respect, you kinda invalidate your own point with Crochet who had a huge spring and has carried it over into his first 2 starts

Dan: Who do you like better for this year, Houck or Gil? Do you think Gail’s control gains allowThanks!

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Gil fan so I have a lean toward him. Any world where you can get both? If it’s just one, gimme Gil, but I’d be curious who else you could cut to roster both

Guest: How screwed is my Nola-Ryan-Ober-Sale-Civale-Rodon-Cortes rotation (with stashed Springs-Scherzer-Bubic)? I already cut Puk, so I know he’ll be fine.

Paul Sporer: Rough start, but don’t panic. We’re not even a week in!

B’ryce Hammer Destroyer of Baseballs: Cut Jung for Chapman/KeBreezy/Maikel Garcia/Oswaldo in my ten team redraft (points league)? Would be insurance for Elly DeLaCruz, cause those strikeouts are making me gag.

Paul Sporer: I’m a KeBreezy guy!

tumtum: Does Berti get the job once Cabrera cools off? And how many steals should I project for him?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. I just don’t think Berti’s all that good. He should run a bit when he plays, but I’m just not at all interested in him

Sears Catalog: How dare you impugn the DET lineup like that!

Paul Sporer: LOL, I’m an honest homer!

E: Are you dropping either bello or ober for cristopher sanchez?

Paul Sporer: I’d drop Bello. Not running from Ober after the dud

Dale Murphy: Looking to add HR/RBI at 1B. Should I drop A. Vaughn and scoop up Mountcastle?

Paul Sporer: I can co-sign that

Salty: Paul – A couple of weeks ago I sent a question asking your thoughts on A Lange finishing with 40+ saves.  I’d like to edit/replace with J Foley and re-submit…thanks!

Paul Sporer: Hahaha, same answer that I doubt my Tigers have a 40+ SV closer, but man oh man Foley looks amazing!!

Shoheitothejays: Hey Paul. 20 team keeper league. Alec Marsh or Chase Silseth?

Paul Sporer: Ooooh that’s close. I’ll go Marsh coming off the big debut w/CWS on the docket next. Silseth gets 2 in a row v. BOS

Guest: If I told you that Mason Miller throws 185 IP in 2025 before the draft next year, where would you rank him in your SP rankings?

Paul Sporer: Top 35-40ish. I’m assuming in this hypothetical that if he went 185, there’d be pretty solid, but he’d still be on Oakland with low W potential

Tigers fan Paul: Should I bail on my Alex Lange shares?

Paul Sporer: I’m not averse to that bc I kinda feel like Miller is next in line

bobsuruncle: Who are you targeting for buy low this spring?

Paul Sporer: No one yet. It’s too early. Unless someone is panicked on Ober for some reason

Guest: How has your back been doing?

Paul Sporer: Back has been OK, but I woke up with a remarkably sore neck and it’s still f’n killin me right. I’m having to turn like a robot, moving my body instead of my neck

Ippei You Back: Puk has walked 9 in 2 starts/5 innings

Paul Sporer: He looks awful. I’m OK cutting everywhere

Phil: Julien keeps getting pinch hit for vs lefties.  Do I drop for Turang or Donovan? 12 team H2H

Paul Sporer: Despite being a Julien fan, I am OK w/that

Sean: Steamer has Crochet projected for a 3.5 ERA???

Paul Sporer: He has nasty stuff, it’s health not talent w/him

Concerns: I know it’s early early, but are there any non-injury hitters that concern you? How will I know when it’s no longer too early?

Paul Sporer: No, it’s just wayyyy too early. I’d reference this chart for stabilization points on stats for when to start giving them some credence: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

Paul Sporer: You can churn the bottom of your roster, but if you’re cutting any non-injury guy from the upper half of your or so of your draft, you’re likely acting too quickly

Vinnie P.: Am I only viable in points leagues or will my power return?

Paul Sporer: Hard to say on the power bc it was a shoulder injury last year so it might not be a major HR output

Greg: Are you hopping on the Ronel Blanco train?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size and who we’re cutting, but yes, I’m open to it

Stuff+: Do you happen to know when the site gets updated with the previous day’s numbers?

Paul Sporer: Overnight, not sure the exact time

Paul Sporer: I can ask and answer it next wk

Guest: Singer or Cortes? QS; K/BB counts

Paul Sporer: I still lean toward Cortes, but it’s pretty close IMO

Robbie: Drop Nolan Jones for Brandon Marsh in a 12 team, points league?

Paul Sporer: No. Jones hasn’t even gotten a home series!

BlakeT: I mean the dude threw a no hitter… why is he sitting on the wire in two of my leagues?

Paul Sporer: Blanco? Bc he’s a random 30 yr old with at TEX in his next start so I get it in shallower lgs

Chas: Corey Seager dinger no. 1!

Paul Sporer: BANG!!!

Michael C: Gelof or Nolan Gorman at 2b for the rest of the year?

Paul Sporer: Gorman for me

Guest: I am asking another Tristan McKenzie question just to piss off that guy in the peanut replies. You think McKenzie would be still an auto-start against bottom quarter offenses?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m still running him a few more starts before making any move. I’d start him this wknd v. MIN. If he flops there, I sit v. NYY and assess from there

Bob: Dropping Puk for: Conforto OR Abner Uribe. Just looking for smartest move for the near future (best ROI). How do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: Uribe is the dude right now for SVs, so go for him!

Bob: Nolan Jones got dropped im my league, even with the red flags would you still gamble on the upside?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely. I hated the draft price, but love “free” as the price!!!

Cardinal Way: Are you concerned about Edman’s wrist?

Paul Sporer: I am, yes

Guest: Why is Gil a pick up? Is it just a K and W thing, his ERA and WHIP have never been great over any large sample and he has never thrown more than 110 innings in a season.  why would we think that now after just one start?

Paul Sporer: I mean, have you watched him pitch? He’s a live arm with a ton of talent on a good team. I don’t really care about the long-term w/waiver pickups. Too many people worry about rest of season. It’s not Mr. Right, it’s Mr. Right Now. Gil is a 26 yr old former prospect who can miss a ton of bats and log dubs while healthy. Very appealing pickup for me

Graham Ashcraft: Am I a good pitcher? Even I don’t know sometimes.

Paul Sporer: Ehhh… just can’t miss enough bats, especially in that park

Patrick Sandoval: Have I made you proud?

Paul Sporer: Solid rebound, glad I stuck with you!!

Josh: is it too early to worry about Gelof? Spent a top 100 pick on him for dynasty

Paul Sporer: I mean I was worried w/his draft price, but you paid a premium, you gotta give him more than a week

speaking of wrists: what a bummer about Jung

Paul Sporer: So brutal!!! He was looking so good early on, too, which just makes it that much worse

Ippei You Back: Thanks for the chats and advice Paul

Paul Sporer: No prob!!

Charlotte: When will you take me to Bark at the Park?!

Paul Sporer: Probably in May… how’d you type that? You’re right behind me? Hey wait a minute, where’s my phone???

Chickie: Dump Julien for Westburg or Keith, H2H points, redraft?

Paul Sporer: In shallower leagues, I’m OK moving on from Julien bc he’s a platoon guy. I’m a fan of him but it’s hard to hold platoon guys in shallower formats. I lean Westburg

Be Bold: Did you put out a bold predictions article?

Paul Sporer: I did not. The breakouts and busts articles essentially filled in for that this year

Ippei: any openings at Rotographs? you can bet I’d be a good fit

Paul Sporer: I know this is a joke Q w/Shohei’s interpreter’s name, buuuttt if anyone is looking to write for us, drop me a line at wanted@fangraphs.com — looking for mid-week waivers article and Roto Riteup contributions.

52 Pizza Roll: Benson or J Lowe for my 5 th outfield spot?

Paul Sporer: Gimme the healthy guy – Benson

Peedlum: 5×5, OPS instead of BA 10 team league, one for each corner and a flex corner slot. Lost Jung. Should I go with Foscue?  Perhaps Jordan Westburg?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Westburg

Guest: How good will Justin Foscue be? His profile reminds me a lot of Nick Solak.

Paul Sporer: Not a bad comp at all. Didn’t quite work Solak, but that similar profile can succeed. It’ll probably be empty-ish AVG, though decent R/RBI as part of Texas

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Hi Paul-  thanks as always.  Needs saves.  Drop H Harvey for either Kopech or McArthur?  Harvey looks to have the best stuff in that bullpen but not the job?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably go for Kopech. His stuff is just bananas.

Ben: Are you buying Javier’s changeup?

Paul Sporer: I am, yes. He’s one of my FOMO guys. Wanted a share of him for one of my 2 Main Event entries

Bob: Spencer Turnbull turned in a pretty nice first start. Do you think he continues to perform well enough to earn a starting rotation on a 12 team mixed league?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I benched him v. CIN bc I just wanted to see where he was at, but gets a 2-step next wk so I think he’ll be on the radar. I’d run him in a 12 at STL and v PIT — those aren’t easy matchups, but good enough to take the shot

Rangers Fan: When do we start to get concerned about postseason hero Evan Carter

Paul Sporer: Not for at least a month

Paul Sporer: Less than a week is def not enough time lol

Bob: Nolan Jones Red Flags? What are they?

Paul Sporer: Completely unsustainable BABIP, huge K%, and crazy road numbers that won’t hold

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll. My neck is absolutely killing me, so I’m gonna lay down for a little and see if this pain will subside. Thanks for coming out. I’ll be live on my Twitch channel tomorrow morning at 8 am Central reviewing the boxscores from today’s games — https://twitch.tv/sporer Take care!