Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 2nd, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!!

Theodore: ROS would you add Hicks over Roupp or Mize?

Paul Sporer: I would not. I’m not a big Hicks-as-SP fan. Great start yesterday and there will be gems, but he started brilliantly last yr, too… I just don’t trust him

Mike: Who do you like, if anyone, to add as a potential closer in Detroit?

Paul Sporer: I don’t mind going for Kahnle or Brieske, just gotta know there isn’t a lockdown A-guy right now and likely won’t be under Hinch

Guest: Hi Paul, Toglia or J Walker in a roto league?

Paul Sporer: I loooove J Walk, but I’m a little higher on Toglia this year. Close call, though

comish4lif: What’s up with Pirate’s ex-closer, David Bednar. Whatever they are sending him to the minors to work on – shouldn’t that have been done (attempted) during Spring Training?

Paul Sporer: It no doubt was, it didn’t work unfortunately. Can’t keep letting him get MLB outings and potentially cost your team games. Could be more of a clear your head  send down than anything else

Arms Day: AL Only league. Could you rank these arms? Povich, Wesneski, Shane Smith, Woods Richardson? Which are below the Middle Reliever threshold?

Paul Sporer: All probably clear the MR threshold and then I rank ’em Wes, Pov, Smith, SWR

Baseball Sandwiches: Hi Paul, in 14-team H2H 5×5, can you rank Ortiz, Schanuel, Bell, and Cronenworth at CI? Thank you.

Paul Sporer: Is that Joey Ortiz? He’s my #1 there. Really eager to see what he does this year. From there, it’s Bell, Crone Zone, and Schanuel

Fantasy fan: Which would be better for a stats fantasy to have Tovar and Abraham, which would be better to use in Fantasy?

Paul Sporer: This feels like an auto-correct of Abrams. I’ve got him ahead of Tovar. I did like Tovar at his price point this year compared to the more expensive Abrams, but just straight up, I see Abrams out-earning Tovar by a little

Madison: I know it’s early but are there any players you already believe have taken a step up in talent?

Paul Sporer: Not trying to be a homer, but my boy Spencer Torkelson! The plate skills look great. I know he has a 30% K rate, but a lottt of that is the amped up patience that has yielded a 22% BB rate. He only has a 5% swinging strike rate so the K rate isn’t coming from being overmatched and having no idea what you’re swinging at. It’s veeerrrryyyy early, but I’m very excited about the early returns from Tork!

Guest: Where would it be best to make suggestions for additions to the site? I think it’d be useful to have records of the annual BaseRuns standings on Fangraphs but not sure who to speak to on that

Paul Sporer: I think you could hit up the support email — https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contact/

Mike: Is Gleyber a keep or drop in a 12-team if no IL spot available?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m OK cutting here

Mike: do you think Ben Brown is worth rostering for an SP/RP streamer in points league? Or am I playing with Fire

Paul Sporer: Yes to both Qs tbh. You are playing with some fire, but it’s a worthy risk. His upside is rich. I’d go for it

Guest: Lance Lynn retired. Isn’t there a handful of teams that could use 100 innings of 4.25 ERA from him?

Paul Sporer: He might just want to be done. But ya I was waiting for him to get a call and I’m sure he got multiple calls…. that’s why I tend to think he did want to keep playing

Paul Sporer: Hats off the Lynn on a great career! I was always a huge fan and while I ate some of his down seasons, I got lots of fantasy goodness over the years!!

Bleached Sox: Any reason to think Clevinger has any value as a closer?  Obviously, none as a human….

Paul Sporer: Anyone getting SVs has soooome value, so ya I understand rostering him. And ya, I’m totally fine w/ppl who don’t want to roster scumbags in fantasy but at the same time, I don’t assume that someone rostering a scumbag is co-signing that person. I truly see it both ways on this topic.

Ashley: Philosophical question….how long do you hold on to post-10 round drafted players if they have a poor start? Theoretically I still believe in many of them but I’m also watching other managers pick up the hot starting non-drafted players and feeling the pain.

Paul Sporer: You should generally have a few spots you can rotate and they should be later round guys. I’m keeping the top half of my lineup for at least a month (barring a major injury or something). Most gms for any team is 7, nothing has happened to GREATLY change your statistical outlooks on a guy from draft season until now. Again, major playing time loss or big injury is one thing, but I truly couldn’t care less about the stats right now and would def not be cutting anyone due to a low batting average or high ERA

Guest: I have a theory that Walcott is a sneaky redraft stash.  Already in AA, and Jung/Seager aren’t what you’d call locks to be healthy all year. Smith seems more appropriately a bench/util guy than a starter. Crazy like a fox or just crazy?

Paul Sporer: Won’t completely rule it out bc he’s a major prospect and once you’re at AA, you’re a phone call away, but I doubt I’d be stashing. I’m not sure how quickly he’d really come up or even if he’d be instantly successful upon arrival…. so not crazy, but not enough upside for me

Jhmmmm: Justin Henry Malloy goes from leading off (and doing it well) to the bench. Is he a preferable bench bat (AL, OBP league) to Trent Grisham, Ty France, or Kyren Paris?

Paul Sporer: He’s back in the lineup today! But he’s not gonna be an everyday guy v. righties if they can help it. I think that’s a pretty similar group of players so I’d probably lean France as he is an everyday guy. Maybe Paris if you really need SBs

Mike: Take a name like Buehler or a good start pitcher like Megill or Meyer?

Paul Sporer: Buehler’s stuff does not look back at all so he is someone I have made an early move on, though it’s not just bc of 1 start. It’s last year, uninspiring stuff in spring, and a bad opener. I’ve got Megill just ahead of him and Meyer not too far off, so I’d go Megill here

Sara: Toglia or Wallner rest of season?

Paul Sporer: Think I’m choosing Toglia again!! He’s 2-for-2 today… chose him over Jordan Walker and now Matt Wallner… go Michael!!

JJP: I expected better things from Harrington yesterday. First day in the bigs jitters? Worth grabbing in an NL only?

Paul Sporer: Allllways temper debut expectations. Just never know how those games are gonna go. I try not to make too much of them positive or negative. Def worth an NL grab if he stays up

Weird1@Portland: Will Kahnle be the primary Tigers closer?

Paul Sporer: I think he certainly can be, but primary for Detroit is like being 3-4% ahead of the next guy. Kahnle/Brieske/Vest/Holton are like a 28/25/25/22 breakdown and the only reason Holton is lowest is bc AJ seems to love deploying him at ANY time he needs to so I don’t think he will hold him for 9th as often

Guest: I just wanted to say that I really enjoyed the Sleeper and the Bust podcast with Gregg. I enjoyed his insights and the debate between him and Jason about their contrasting approaches was some of the best material I have heard on a fantasy baseball podcast in a long time. I’m hoping that’s not the last we time see Gregg on the pod.

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much, def won’t be Gregg’s last time on the show. Really love talking baseball with him!

Paul Bearer: Have a daily lineup decision between Buxton and Larry Butler in my 12-team H2H league while they’re both healthy. Who do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: I was in on the Butler hype train so I def lean him slightly. Can’t hurt to have some depth there, though, with B-Bux

Guest: Brenton Doyle has shown he can get it done, but Jasson Dominguez showing some production early in a much better lineup. Who do you like more in a H2H points league this year?! (Thanks for all your work!!!)

Paul Sporer: A good bit higher on Doyle. Dominguez is appealing for sure, but gimme the guy who’s done it and plays in Coors!

Adeline: Vinnie Pasquantino or Nolan Schanuel?

Paul Sporer: Vinnie P for me

South Sider: At what point do we start panicking about Willson Contreras, who is 0 for 21 on the year as I type this?

Paul Sporer: Mid-May at the earliest. I’m leaning on the 9 yr track record for quite a while before panicking, even in shallow leagues

JV: Do you see a bounceback from Arenado?  335 OBP and 25 homers?

Paul Sporer: I do and those #s work for me. Bat speed is up and as an older player, a couple ticks on the bat speed can be massive

Jon: Hi Paul, please pick two of these four in a 10T mixed roto league: Fitts, Hicks, Bubic, Tylor Megill. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Bubic/Megill

Stan Musing: You buying a ticket on the Jordan Walker hype train???

Paul Sporer: I’m the conductor! Still heavily rooting for him!!

Baseball Cocktails: Hello again, Paul! Do we still dig Soroka? He’s on again for Sunday. Thank you.

Paul Sporer: Yes giving him a few starts for the deeper leagues where I drafted him. ARI isn’t easy this weekend so if you want to sit, I get it, but don’t cut bc we get at MIA next wk. If he flops at MIA, we cut and move on

Paul Sporer: Soroka is the kind of late round pick we can make a relatively quick decision on, so 3 starts should be enough, espec. w/1 against a premium matchup like at MIA

K-Collector: Are you targeting Devers for a discount?

Paul Sporer: I would absolutely take a discount, yes. It’s rough right now, but that’s when you can get a real discount on someone

Peter: Thoughts on Jackson Jobe and Grant Holmes rest of season…..streamers or solid back end starters?

Paul Sporer: Team streamers right now hoping to play into full-time starters. Team streamer is just a streamer you don’t cut when you’re not using bc they’re too good to put on the wire. So I wasn’t starting Holmes at LAD, but obv not letting him on my wire, either

You’re My Huckleberry: Do you see J.D. Martinez or Anthony Rizzo signing with anyone later this season?

Paul Sporer: Maaaybe. We’re just seeing fewer and fewer oldheads on rosters these days. Players coming up younger and younger and taking the jobs of this player class (they’re takin our jorbz!!). It’s hard to carry a full on DH, too, in the case of JD with shorter benches these days. Rizz can at least play 1B

Dos Muncys: Are we on the precipice of a Gabriel Arias breakout?

Paul Sporer: We’re a looong way from declaring that, but I don’t mind him in deep lgs. I’m a sucker for Rocchio and Arias and I will admit part of that is that they popped off for me in OOTP, lol. I develop a lot of player fandoms from OOTP. Obv doesn’t mean they’ll be good IRL, but it does put ’em on my radar so I end up following them more closely. Both Rocchio and Arias have some deep lg juice as full-time players in CLE

Prospector: Who finishes the year with more saves?  Luke Jackson or Tommy Kahnle?

Paul Sporer: Between the 2, probably Jackson, though please don’t take that to mean I think he’s the unquestioned all year guy in Texas

Guest: Thoughts on dropping Cam Smith for Jordan Walker or a hot pitcher in a 12 team cats league?

Paul Sporer: I don’t hate that. Cam Smith was a late enough pick in a 12-teamer that you can stick and move w/him. I’m certainly not out on him, but chasing a hot hand or more established player is fair

Jeff: Mizner or Mangum in TB?

Paul Sporer: Mangum probably the more dynamic fantasy player. Misner is pure power whereas Mangum seems to be a bit of everything incl. 3 SBs already!!

Justin Mason: Would you hire me to be a ticket collector on the J Walker hype train? I have no prior experience on trains but I am deathly afraid of pitchers who are coming off an injury last year if that helps.

Paul Sporer: lolol yes I would

Guest: Would you describe your love for baseball as a crescendo that is still rising to this day or has it peaked in a previous year and it’s a little lowered than it’s been?

Paul Sporer: It never seems to wane. I’m truly obsessed with all things baseball. I’ve gotten more into the minor leagues with each passing year and dove deeper and deeper into history due in part to my job with the video game Out of the Park Baseball.

Paul Sporer: Wow back-to-back 1-0 wins in Cincy for Texas, very impressive!

Lance Lynn: Wow it really seems like Luke Jackson has the dang closer role for tex. Are you convinced and interested in Emilio Pagan or is the situation similar to Detroit?

Paul Sporer: Not convinced yet on L Jack and deathlyyyyy afraid of Pagan in Cincy, though I did scoop him in a Main bc the Jackson prices were out of control (he was my #1 option)

Salty: Do you think Goodman is in the same neighborhood as Bo or is he a level or two above at this point?

Paul Sporer: Bo Naylor? I like Goodman a little more

Eugenio Suarez: Would you drop Max Muncy for me in an OBP 10-teamer?

Paul Sporer: Ya I guess Muncy is like a 25th round or later pick in 10 teamers, huh? So yeah, that’s OK to me

Paul Sporer: I don’t have a 10-teamer this year so my frame of reference can get skewed a bit. Gotta remember that solid glue guys in 15-teamers are waiver fodder in 10-teamers

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, gotta keep it to a tight hour bc I’m podcasting with Justin and Joe here shortly. Thanks so much for coming out. I’ve started up my thrice-weekly (M-W-Sat) morning boxscore show called Boxes & Bull on Twitch (https://twitch.tv/sporer) where I review the night before in baseball plus news and games (Immaculate Grid, PT Live, Spinball) when time permits. You can also find it on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLMuwlyjvVdjSXCbA9z5XYjUIBqtysCvLz) a few hrs after it’s over. Thanks so much for coming out, take care!!