Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 23rd, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hello!!!! Thanks for coming out

Why not Zoidberg?: Has Crews figured it out or is this just a streak? Must roster in even really shallow leagues?

Paul Sporer: Neither really, just early season volatility. Couldn’t have paid me to cut him before this surge. He’s the kind of guy I give 4-6 wks minimum before thinking of cutting (unless he was sent out or something)

Jason: Hello sir!  Do you think Mitchell Parker is worth a pickup in a 13 team roto 5×5 (QS+W) league?  Or is he doing to us what he did to us last year?

Paul Sporer: I def don’t mind rostering him to see if he can improve, but unless he starts missing more bats, it will be tough to sustain any level of success (16% K is brutal)

Kyle: How expendable is Josh jung in a 12 tm h2h? alternatives would be n. marte, garcia or durbin

Paul Sporer: He’s expendable in 12s for sure. I’d probably play the matchups w/those guys you listed. See if Cincy is home for a while and maybe lean Marte if so. If not, I like taking the shot on Durbin

99: As a Tigers fan, how does Mize look to you?  Will this season be different?

Paul Sporer: Better than the guy we’ve seen in previous years despite the numbers not loudly backing up that assertion. He’s running hot to keep the ERA down with a .194 BABIP and 90% LOB… those will regress so his 12% K-BB has to improve to remain good, but I’m of that mind that he can make those improvements in his core skills to stay viable in 12s & deeper with streaming value in 10s

Guest: Abreu or Nootbar ROS, 5×5 OBP?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Man oh man, that’s such a toss-up with Abreu walking at a 17% clip. I think I lean Abreu despite being a big Noot fan overall. They’re REALLY close for OBP.

Adenolith: 8 team h2h, I have a roster crunch in sight with Doyle and Royce about to be activated and Crews, Kurtz, Frelick, K. Campbell, and Tork all vying for 2 lineup spots. Plus a couple FA targets like Vientos I’d be happy to add. What of that group would you look to move off of. If I’m looking for RP/ SP what might be a good return in trade?

Paul Sporer: I think in a league like this where talent is plentiful and margins are small, you really gotta map out schedules and see where you can gain some advantages there. Bc you’ll drive yourself crazy trying to parse out talent differences from such a deep group. I’m holding Campbell/Tork among that group and I’m a huge Crews fan so leaning his way, too, but again, map things out and see who’s getting advantages of scheduling coming up

Bob: Would you drop Jordan Hicks for Loupp if you had a ROS transaction limit?

Paul Sporer: In a heartbeat, ya

Big Tyme: I thought this was going to be Garrett Mitchell’s year.  Any hope left?

Paul Sporer: Plentyyyy of hope. Nothing in 69 PA should fundamentally change how you felt about a player during draft season. I like Mitchell, too, but do have concerns about his elevated K%. Sit tight w/him for a bit

Jon: Most expendable/worried about in a 10T OBP roto league: India, Rengifo or Semien

Paul Sporer: Probably Rengifo as he’s not running and 0-for-1 on the 1 attempt he does have. India’s a bit more fringe for 10s, but at least still taking his walks. Semien I’m giving a good bit longer before making any moves

Maddux lives!: Obviously a bit early to say he’ll throw a Maddux but Olsen is through 5 on 45 pitches. I’m still in on him and have held through a couple rough starts but he is rolling today!

Paul Sporer: Ya everything is clicking today and I hope he can stay strong. I’m such a fan and have also held through the early struggles

Steve: Will Hicks figure it out? Or expendable?

Paul Sporer: Jordan? Expendable. I just don’t see him as a starter, tbh

Chris: When Kurtz comes up, who am I dropping at 1B: N Lowe, Bellinger, or Manzardo? 12T H2H keeper

Paul Sporer: Crazy if I say none for Kurtz? Like I get the excitement and will definitely be looking to add him this weekend, but I’m not sure he’s better than any of that group

TJ: Your thoughts on Christopher Sanchez and any relationship between his advancement this spring and his potentially serious injury?   I recall Thor throwing the hard slider with great results for just a little while before his injury.

Paul Sporer: Ya I mean if he ends up being seriously hurt, it’s almost certainly tied to the velo surge which sucks bc you want guys to improve, but more velo = more injuries

Guest: Need to drop someone to activate Myers. Are Ginn or Wesneski drops, or drop Myers?

Paul Sporer: I’m intrigued by Ginn, but would cut him to keep Myers

It’s Me: Can Walker Beuhler be good with his reduced Velo? I hope so because nobody wants to take him off my hands for some reason lol. Any indications the Velo will come back at some point? If only he could face the White Sox all year.

Paul Sporer: Sorry to say I’m pretty bearish. Long-time Buehler fan, but gotta be honest here and I just don’t see many (any?) positives in these last 3 starts despite positive results. Obv started him v. CHW, but I remain heavily concerned about him

Joe: How concerned are you with Nola and Alcantara ROS?

Paul Sporer: Sandy more than Nola just bc he’s coming back from TJ and we know there can be ups & downs in the TJ return season. It’s not that I have no concerns about Nola, but maybe I’m just a bit numb to it bc he has 2 bad seasons recently so if he does post another 4.00+ ERA season, I guess I won’t be floored by it

MclanaFan: Hey Paul, thanks for doing these. Have you heard ANYTHING about shane mclanahan’s return? After they put him on the DL I haven’t seen anything at all about when he might return to the mound. Have you heard a rumor, a whisper…anything?

Paul Sporer: No, mum’s the word on him and Kirby so far! OK, just checked again and saw that Kirby finally has a news item that he’s slated to face hitters this week, but ya still all quiet on McClanahan front

Guest: Do I continue to hold onto Austin Wells? Someone dropped Willson. Sean Murphy and Hunter Goodman are also available

Paul Sporer: Sounds a like a 1-C league so no, you don’t need to hold Wells. I’d start streaming

High5Ghost: Assuming Sanchez is cooked, are you picking up Liberatore, Ranger Suarez, Gavin Williams or Reese Olson? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Gav or Reese are my favorite 2

Kyle: how much longer (if at all) are you holding on to sandy alcantara? would you roster olson or taillon over him?

Paul Sporer: Might make the Sandy for Olson swap right now w/Olson on tap for a 2-step next wk and Sandy slated for the Dodgers

Matt: Hi Paul! Need some SP insight. Stalewarts of Yamamoto, Webb, S Gray. Need to fill out 2 more spots for 12 team roto, weekly lineup QS. Can you rank Flaherty (2 start @HOU, @LAA), Ober @BOS and Rodon @BAL. This all assumes C Sanchez will not have a 2 start week (WAS, ARZ)

Paul Sporer: Prefer Flaherty and Ober over Rodon for sure

Mark: 10 team roto league: should any of these be rostered, or should they just be streamed: Festa, Mize, Abbott, Irvin, Lodolo, Buehler, Wesneski, Taillon.

Paul Sporer: Pretty much a streaming group but Lodolo & Wesneski could be more team streamers where you keep em rostered when not using them. Mize could get there if his Ks rise but def not more than a streamer in 10s rn

Simpson mania: Is now the time to trade Chandler Simpson? AL Only, OBP league. Curious what kinds of names I might target.

Paul Sporer: It is usually a great time to explore trades with these hyped prospects right when they come up so unless you absolutelyyyy need the SBs, you should shop him. Not sure exactly who to target, but shoot high and look for a team that can truly use the speed

Axel Foley: Who’s your preferred closer candidate to roster in Detroit: Kahnle, Vest or someone else?

Paul Sporer: Probably Kahnle but just know that Hinch is always gonna lean matchups and never have an unquestioned closer

Mochi: Obviously he’s not cranking 40 but are we buying the Edman changes?  Is he going to settle out way above what we thought or is there a super steep regression coming here at some point?

Paul Sporer: Full disclosure: I’m an Edman superfan but ya not hitting 40 or even 30 IMO. That said, I think we can def see 20+ with a new career high. Just loved him as a cheaper way to get into the Dodgers lineup and he’s gone ballistic so far

Jung and the Restless: Is Jace gonna get a real run in Detroit? AL Only obp league, wondering if he’s steadier than a Julien or Oswaldo Cabrera type.

Paul Sporer: I think I prefer both Julien and Cabrera over Jace. Just haven’t seen enough so far that tells me he can really hit

Guest: What’s your season-long outlook on Butler? Overrated? Buy-low?

Paul Sporer: Lawrence Butler? Not sure you’re getting a buy low price on him, he’s been great thus far. I’m definitely a fan and think we could see a full season similar to his second half from last yr

Matt: Can Max Meyer continue to thrive being a slider-first guy? Velocity is up a tick too.

Paul Sporer: I think so, yeah. He’s not gonna stay THIS good w/a 2.10 ERA, but we don’t have to squint too hard to see a true breakout coming through for Meyer. Really like what we’ve seen thus far

Billy the Marlin: How about Agustin Ramirez? Worth rostering in shallow leagues right now?

Paul Sporer: Yes, even in a 1-C league, I’m willing to take a spin w/Ramirez especially as a catcher who can run a good bit. Let’s see where this goes!

drplantwrench: as a frustrated Jo Adell believer, he is constantly teetering on stardum and bustdom. seems like his batting is a bit luck based (both positively and negatively), where do you think he ends up for this season?

Paul Sporer: He teases and tantalizes w/the power-speed profile, but the ugly plate skills keep pushing him back toward that bustdom outcome and unless we see substantive gains there, it’s hard to see him more as a frustratingly streaky player. He’s one of those guys where I root for him, but I no longer seek him out at the draft table the way I did for a few years

bdubs: You thoughts on the fantasy strategy of using one roster spot as a sort of ongoing ‘speculative add’ slot for players who you take a chance to on – a minor league call up, a player who’s on a hot streak that may turn into something longer term, etc – and quickly move on if it doesn’t work out and bringing in the next.

Paul Sporer: Absolutely! Ideally like to have 1-3 expendable spots. Now if you don’t have any bc all of your guys are super rosterable, that’s a GOOD thing, but moooosssstt ppl don’t have 23 untouchable guys at all moments so usually can have at least 1 cuttable spot to play with week to week or day to day if it’s a daily

Idiotic Failson: Someone dropped Semien in my league, and I picked him up at a slight discount to his preseason projections (points, auction, dynasty). How should I feel about this?

Paul Sporer: I’d feel pretty good. While I understand some of the concerns after last year’s modest output, cutting him on mid-April is just silly to me. If you weren’t going to give him a real run (6-8 wks for a guy at his draft price), why even draft him, ya know?

JD: Thanks Paul for answering our questions. 2b dilemma in a 12-team 5×5 roto with weekly lineups. I have Hoerner, L Garcia, L Keaschall and K Parris (picked up on waivers). I feel like I’m throwing darts to figure out who to start. I look at how they’ve hit in the last 7 days and opponent pitching stats for the upcoming week. And that doesn’t always work. Feedback on my strategy and/or what would you do?

Paul Sporer: You’re doing the right thing by checking matchups. You won’t always make the best pick, but it’s a process over results thing. Think of it like poker, if you’re getting your money in with the best chance to win consistently, eventually the cards fall your way over time. If you keep choosing the best matchups, it will eventually bear fruit.

Just to give you a quick real life example of this, I play a game called OOTP (Out of the Park Baseball) and there’s a real life fantasy component to it called PT Live where you pick guys each day and get pts based on how they do. And you get ALL the pts of a doubleheader so when WAS/COL had that DH in Coors on Sunday, they were NO DOUBT the right pick for lineups that day… well it flopped results-wise as there were like 12 total runs, but I would never not load up on a Coors doubleheader in that situation

Paul Sporer: So that’s a bit of an extreme example, but keep mapping out the schedules for your 2B clog and just play the best. Hoerner might take precedence even if matchups don’t align as he’s shown more historically than the others, but otherwise I’m def playing matchups

DK: Hi Paul! What’s your take on Bibee’s performance so far?

Paul Sporer: Maybe just takes some time to ramp up? He got off to a slow start last year, too, with a near-5.00 ERA into May, howeverrrr his core skills much better as this year’s BB% is elevated. 11 BB over the last 3 give me some pause that everything is fine and he’ll figure it out, but at the same time, I don’t think this slow start is terribly actionable meaning I’m riding it out. I’m certainly not cutting him and I’m not even benching w/a 2-step next week. Perhaps we start to sit him if the 2-step flops next week (MIN/at TOR)

Paul Sporer: Minatour!

Mike: are you buying Josh Smith longterm.  A lot of position flexibility, but hard path to playing time and he doesn’t really excel in any category in H2H?

Paul Sporer: I feel like the only person who likes this guy, lol! He got NO spring buzz and I kinda get it bc he was blocked off everywhere and more of a super-utility guy, buuuutttt it’s not like there aren’t injury concerns throughout that lineup and he’s already gotten in a bunch. He’s a boring accumulator type perfect for deeper lgs which is my wheelhouse, so I understand 10 and 12-team players not going nuts for him, but he wasn’t even getting run in the 15-team universe during draft season. In short, love me some Josh Smith — does a bit of everything, playing a bunch, and on fire so far!

no “thoughts on”: Is Pepiot a hold or a streaming option for you in 12 teamers with Quality Start category?

Paul Sporer: He’s a team streamer, don’t cut him when you’re not using him, but you don’t have to blindly start him. Tough matchup coming to TB? Maybe it’s a sit if you’ve got better options. I love Pep and most of the TB rotation, but that park is gonna be really tough on them and their fantasy production this year

MS: I 100% buy in to your “let things play out” approach….but in a super shallow (8 teams) roto with svs+hlds, how long do you let someone like Clase figure things out?? He has been brutal and not getting better now with a dash of shoulder issues.

Paul Sporer: The shallower the league, the quicker you gotta be so I totally get it. I still wouldn’t cut Clase, but I’d def scoop Cade Smith if he’s still available and might consider a benching of Clase for a week or so until you see him string some things together. At leeeeast he’s given ya 3 sneaky Ws as a trade off for the horrendous ratios, but ya, I can’t say I have ZERO concerns. I do think Vogt will give him a very long leash before fully unseating him from the role, too

Dave: Do the Marlins intend to keep Ramirez up when Fortes comes back?

Paul Sporer: They’re insane if not, unless he’s hitting like .100 and just looks super overmatched, but I don’t expect that

High5Ghost: how are you feeling about your Dylan Crews bold prediction? Let’s ride!!

Paul Sporer: Holding strong! He was ugly out of the gate before stabilizing (a trip to Coors if the best Rx for a sputtering bat) and now we ride!!!!

RAGBRAI: In one clean question who gets sent down when McNeil and Alvarez return on Friday?

Paul Sporer: Senger for sure for Alvarez, right? And then probably Azocar for McNeil if I had to guess.

Paul Sporer: I know Azocar is out of options, but I don’t think they really have to bend over backwards to keep him around instead of just DFA’ing him

Budman: (sorry if repeat) Deep league, thinking of bidding aggressively on Agustin and dropping Jeimer Candelerio….thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I’m in. I’m REALLY excited about Agustin Ramirez for the Marlins. Giving me some Marlins-era JT Realmuto vibes w/his ability to run as a catcher

KC: Is Kerkering a drop in a 12 team S+H league?

Paul Sporer: Yes, no need to hold in S+H for sure

Vogt Your Conscience: Santander has been TERRIBLE. Don’t wait to bail on him in April, but do you see any cause for concern ROS?

Paul Sporer: It’s been ugly for sure, but strikes me as standard struggles as opposed to reason for grave concerns. Hold the line, he should be fine!

RAGBRAI: Monika or A Ramirez rest of the season and next?

Paul Sporer: Agustin!

Adenolith: Is a Mason Miller for Tork swap even if it meets both teams needs or does one seem to hold more value for you?

Paul Sporer: I think draft day values still hold some weight so I’m not sure the Miller person would do this deal just yet even if they fully believe in Tork. Even as the premier Tork Dork, I’d still want a sweetner w/him to give my Mason Miller so prob need just a bit more there

HappyFunBall: I’m over-SACed. Soderstram is my 1B and Rooker is my LF. Complicating matters is that our league score putouts, which means wearing a 1B glove is pretty valuable. Kurtz is available, but I don’t know where I’d play him. He’s going to eat into my guy’s PT (a little) and their time actually at 1B (maybe a lot). Clearly the answer is to pick up Kurtz and try to trade … someone.  Which?

Also we’ve got very few bench spots, and using one on a guy who going to have all the same off days as the other guys at his position is painful.

Paul Sporer: Probably want to trade Rooker if you’re making a move as his history is longer so the trade returns will almost assuredly be better (although going back to our Chandler Simpson discussion from earlier, maybe Kurtz’s hype can yield a big return). I’m in on the Soderstrom hype train, but I just don’t think he’ll get you a fair return so explore Rook/Kurtz trades first

RossA: How do you rank Abbott, Ginn, Roupp?

Paul Sporer: Reverse order of their listing.

Paul Sporer: Y’all killed it with the questions today! One of these Wednesdays, I’ll clear the schedule and run a marathon chat and try to clear the entire queue. Back next week, take care!!