Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 19th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Oil Can Baggins: How are we feeling about Brendan Donovan 3 weeks into the season?  Underwhelmed, Medium Whelmed, Overwhelmed?

Paul Sporer: Feel as good as I did when I drafted him. 2 HR/2 SB.. nicked up right now so don’t love that, but performance-wise, totally fine!

Kyle Freeland: Apologize for believing in me!

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOLOL… my friend Gregg talked me out of even putting him in my list of bids. Justin didn’t really sell the reasons to go against, but he was right!

Chip: I’m an early buyer of Johan Oviedo. Would you start him at Colorado? Terrible team, but also a terrible stadium for pitchers.

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Oviedo fan, but no shot in Coors. Just not worth the risk. Pick up & stash

RGS: What kind of FAB bid is Mason Miller worth in a QS league? Love the stuff but concerned about innings.

Paul Sporer: Probably the same as you would in a Wins league bc OAK sucks. Upside is rich, but let’s take a look at him today before talking numbers

Quarantino Martinez: Did Keller undue the excitement with yesterday’s walkfest? Drop for Turnbull, canning, or the Mower (aka Kyle Gibson)?

Paul Sporer: Brad Keller? I wasn’t particularly excited in the first place, so I’d likely hold all 3 over him

Sum: prefer J Montgomery or P Sandoval over next 4 weeks?

Paul Sporer: Would need to know the schedules for a short-term outlook. JorMont is a bit higher in my rankings, but schedule could sway it

Jim: Any value in grabing Ryan Weathers, Colin Rea, Luke Weaver or Trevor Williams in a deep league?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so, even in a deeper format

Justin Steele: Am I for real? How much regression should I expect, especially without much of a third pitch anymore?

Paul Sporer: Real Steele believer and if he can continue to keep righties in check with 2 pitches (he definitely has so far), I’m not terribly concerned about the lack of a true third offering

E: Are you dropping anyone in the grayson range for Mason Miller in a 12 team roto? Or is that likely innings limit/injury risk more of a wait and see thing?

Paul Sporer: No, Grayson has more upside. Love Miller’s potential as he has NASTYYYY stuff, but we have no idea what kind of IP he’s going to get

Jose Alvarado: I’m clearly the best guy in the pen. Does it matter that I’m a lefty or do I run away with this job in spite of silly “lefties can’t close” logic. (Taylor Rogers was a lefty closer)

Paul Sporer: Let’s clear something up real quick, it’s not that lefties can’t close, it’s that teams prefer to have their lefty available for key lefty hitters at any point in the later innings and if they don’t have another lefty in the pen, then they leave themselves susceptible. Billy Wagner & Aroldis Chapman are 2 of the best ever and they’re lefties. If the Phils can rely on Soto to execute against key lefties in the setup role, they can confidently keep Alvarado in their backpocket for the 9th

Bruce Live in 2023: Still hope for Casas & Colas ?

Paul Sporer: I was more Casas than Colas coming into the season and while Casas has been a disaster, surely the .161 BABIP should regress some. Of course, it will only regress so much if he doesn’t start hitting the ball harder which is the major issue right now. I worry he could start losing PT so while I am sticking with him and maybe reserving over cutting, I am planning backups just in case he is sent out or benched by BOS. Colas is hitting the ball on the ground too much. Once he finds his lift, the power should come and CWS seems to committed to him in at least the strong side platoon role

The Tigers: Why do we suck?

Paul Sporer: Lots of reasons, but hitting is the main one

I Used to be Mel Clark: Alek Thomas is smoking balls, but getting no results. How much do you believe in a potential breakout?

Paul Sporer: He literally just lined out again!!! I’m a Thomas fan, but did move on in a deeper league bc there were other options I liked, but he strikes me as someone who will cycle back onto teams for periods of team during the year.

Eloy Jimenez: My contact rate (<60%) and swinging strike rate (>20%) look HIDEOUS. How worried should I be?

Paul Sporer: It’s been 10 games

Massey: Massey has been unlucky with hits but the strikeouts are real. Think he turns it around?

Paul Sporer: Yeah lacing the ball, but far too much whiffing. I worry he’ll lose PT, but I’m sticking by him for now. I do think the numbers will start to come as long as KC stays with him

Shohei Ruth: Tigers have a winning record if the didn’t have to get smoked by the Rays. They don’t suck.

Paul Sporer: I like where your head’s at, but the offense has been horrid

Kevin: Are you buying low on Gunnar Henderson?

Paul Sporer: If you actually can. I’m not the biggest Gunnar guy, but if his manager is selling at a real discount, I can do it

Cedric Mullins: Who is your favorite Oriole now that Kyle Gibson and I are both on the team?

Paul Sporer: Justin and I have our 2 favorite players on the same team. Time to be O’s fans… he’s already got the orange & black gear

Kevin: Where are all of Dustin May’s strikeouts?

Paul Sporer: In his pre-TJ arm

Wise Man: Josh Jung was dropped for some reason in my 12 teamer 5×5 redraft. Should I drop Patrick Wisdom or Jose Miranda?

Paul Sporer: Ride the P Wizzy hot streak and bounce Miranda for Jung

Jake Fraley: Why is TJ Friedl better than me?

Paul Sporer: Don’t you have kids to take care, Justin?

Mason Saunders: Better Mason: Mason Miller or Justin Mason?

Paul Sporer: Jar

Shohei Ruth: Brandon Lowe needs 280 HR to become the career leader in HR by a 2b.  Will he do it?

Paul Sporer: No. I like B Lowe, but that’s lofty

The Todd: As long as B. Lowe stays healthy, we’re looking at a 30HR season?

Paul Sporer: Now this I can get behind. Healthy B Lowe is a G… not sure he’ll stay healthy for 9 more such seasons, though

Fred Klaus: casas plate discipline seems all out of whack, chasing way more and missing way more

Paul Sporer: Yeah hopefully it’s just a funk he works out of, but he’s definitely looked bad so far

Fred Klaus: Do you think detmers or Cobb. Cobb is currently carving the marlins with decent peripherals but terrible defense means meh era

Paul Sporer: I’m Detmers over Cobb for sure. I like Cobb, but his health track record plus that brutal defense make him very volatile

Ampersand: Any reason to worry about Christian Walker at this point?

Paul Sporer: Nah, it’s been bad, but doesn’t strike me as more than a standard fare cold streak as opposed to major issues

Mike: Thoughts on Suwinski in a FGPts league with daily line-ups? I’ve had one CF injury after another and am considering dropping C. Mead for him.

Paul Sporer: Legit power monster who will have his cold stretches based on the swing & miss, but I like him. I’d make the move

Kevin: Schwarber for Wander Franco fair if I need a SS? 5×5 with OPS instead of AVG

Paul Sporer: Yeah definitely dig that

AC: DeSclafani – for real enough to trust against tough upcoming schedule (NYM, STL, @HOU)?

Paul Sporer: In deeper leagues I don’t mind rolling with him.

Matt: You dropping a Tyler Stephenson to free up salary for Mason Miller? Got Murphy as C #1

Paul Sporer: I know it’s really hard to just trade someone, but surelyyyy you can find someone to give you something for T Step!

Jay: Do you ride the Taj Bradley train and trot him out against HOU?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m starting him v. everyone rn

Lance Lynn: what’s wrong with me?

Paul Sporer: Spotty command at times. Still showing plenty of his good. I’m not panicking

Mookie the SS: If the rumors are try and I gain SS eligibility does that make me a top 5 player in most leagues?

Paul Sporer: It’d be great, but isn’t he more valuable at OF?

Andrew Vaughn: will i ever hit for legitimate power?

Paul Sporer: Depends what we’d called legitimate, but if we’re saying .180+ ISO with mid-20s HR output, I’ll say yes

Controversy: Juan Soto + Brandon Woodruff for Yandy + Kershaw deal was vetoed by league vote, causing controversy. Good veto or fair swap? 5×5 redraft.

Paul Sporer: Good veto is an oxymoron. The only good veto is to stifle collusion in which case you kick those managers, otherwise wtf do you need vetoes for? That’s a particularly horrendous veto, too

Benny Bob: Chris Sale return to glory this season?

Paul Sporer: 🤞🏻🤞🏻 loved the big time start last night

Jj: I have Machado and Manoah. Is my only option to keep holding?

Paul Sporer: Yes, of course!

dan boy mcgrew: Which rookie has impressed you the most?

Paul Sporer: Brown and Carroll have lived up their massive hype and I liked both. Outman has been a standout that surprised me early on, hope he can keep the Ks in check

Colton: #SuwinskiSupremacy

Paul Sporer: Yes please!

Claydon: Should Taylor Walls be available on the wire in a 10 team redraft?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, there might be a team that can use him, but he’s not a must-roster in a 10 teamer

fantas eeyore: In 12 tm roto I’m starting Oviedo next week at home against LAD if he ______ today.

Paul Sporer: lobotomizes me

Guest: % chance Alek Thomas gets more ROS PT than Jake McCarthy?

YG: is jake mccarthy gonna produce this year anything close to what he did at the end of last year?

Paul Sporer: I suspect they continue to play about the same, but Thomas’s defense is better so McCarthy continues to struggle, Thomas will pass him. RE: McCarthy’s production, his BABIP will come up as he’s making plenty of contact, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a single-digit HR count

Bruce Live in 2023: Soroka should be back up soon. Interest in a deep league roto?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, the dearth of available talent plus his past success make him appealing

Josh Lowe: Am I a Lowe key league winner…or am I just Joshing around?

Paul Sporer: Could be the classic “fantasy community completely discarded him after a bad start only to see explode the following year”. The hype he had last year hasn’t vanished. He’ll stabilize from where he is now, but the lowered K and SwStr rates are very encouraging

Francisco Alvarez: Am I gonna be good this year?

Paul Sporer: Maybe? :shrug: I’m not a fan of rookie Cs in general and he’s in a 50-50 timeshare right now

Izzy: Is Patrick Wisdom an actual starting caliber player?

Paul Sporer: No, the same guy he’s always been, just running hot. Compare this run to the 2nd half of May 2022 and it’s virtually the same https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=wisdopa01&t=b&ye…

CaliforniaJag: Are you buying the Yandy Diaz power bump with the increased launch angle, or will he go back to his groundball ways soon enough?

Kleo: Is Yandy Diaz’ power for real? Do you see him being a poor man’s Edgar Martinez?

Paul Sporer: The launch angle and flyball surges are super encouraging and give this some believability. We’ve always wanted him to just get some lift in hopes that it’d spur a power surge… so far, so good! We’ll see if he falls back into his GB% ways the first time he struggles, but I’d be pretty psyched if I rostered him this year

Shohei Ruth: Rays get a draft pick if Taj wins ROY. He’s here to stay, right?

Paul Sporer: He’s here to stay because they need him. Plus he threw 133 IP last yr so it’s not like he needs to be super managed

more Dbacks: gotta be Pfaadt time with yet another Bumgarner blowup yeah? not like Arizona isn’t competing this year, they’re 10-5 when MadBum doesn’t start!

Paul Sporer: I certainly hope. It’s a sunk cost, there is no need to keep rolling MadBum out in the rotation. I know he’s a hardass, but you tell him he can relieve or go home lol

Trey: How we feeling about Daulton Varsho right now?

Paul Sporer: No different than I did back in draft season tbh

Guest: I hate rostering two catchers but I have two that are rosterable and basically the same: William Contreras and Tyler Stephenson. about to have a roster crunch with IL guys. what would you do with the catcher slot?

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge T Step fan, so I’m leaning his way and if you can’t trade one, Contreras gets cut for me. They’re close enough that if you prefer WC, I’m not gonna blast you. But I understand if you can’t really hold 2 Cs

hank: is Jake McCarthy droppable in a 12-team keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Always depends who you’re picking up, but I don’t think I’m ready to cut him just yet

Dylan Cease: How much worse will I be than my results last year?

Paul Sporer: I still worry the command will breed some volatility but if the BABIP stays tiny, it’s hard to take advantage of the free passes

Trea Turner: Looks like i’m not running as much anymore. How many SB’s will i get this year

Paul Sporer: He’s pacing for the exact same 27 he had last year, just sayin

Heim: Can Heim maintain a top 7-10 catcher pace?

Paul Sporer: Huge Heim fan so I don’t want to just be Confirmation Bias Carl over here, but I believe he can remain in that range making him viable in 1-C 10-teamers

phil: drop Turang for Walls in standard?

Paul Sporer: That’d be OK, yeah

Baty: Am I really going to sit vs Lefties every game this year?

Paul Sporer: For the foreseeable future, yeah. Teams just loving platooning their young lefty hitters

Salty: Wesneski vs Waldichuk?  Both close to same value or do you favor one clearly over the other?

Paul Sporer: I have some love for Waldy, but I’m way higher on Wesneski. Need to see Wes handle a good team, but was encouraged by him dealing in OAK. Easy matchup or not, he’d looked rough to that point so it had to feel good to get some positive results flowing

TriplesAlley: What is the difference between Fangraphs and Rotographs on the website?

Paul Sporer: One is fantasy-baseball related

Matt: Thanks for the chats, Paul! Which young 2B do you like better ROS in a league with AVG and OBP: Nolan Gorman or Vaughn Grissom?

Paul Sporer: Probably going to let my team makeup drive that — Grissom if I need speed or a more balanced profile, Gorman for power

E: Other than his first few games cron, has been rough. Are we benching in coors too until we see something?

Paul Sporer: No I’m still rocking him in Coors. I’m ok if you want to go to Coors-only, but not giving up Coors gms. Nothing would be worse than missing a 3-HR game on my bench

Paul Sporer: It’s just 29 PA at home, btw

HappyFunBall: Is Josh Outman just a young Joc Pederson?

Paul Sporer: James and perhaps, though maybe he runs more. That said, I remember getting duped by Joc’s minor league SBs so I’m more cautious these days with non-burners.

Royale w Cheese: Did Scott Barlow lose the closer job already?  Or do you see a committee with Chapman going forward?

Paul Sporer: Some struggles paired with Chapman looking back back could mean trouble for Barlow. I could see some sharing here based on matchups, but if Chap keeps pitching like this, he’s gonna eventually just take it over

Matt: Re: Fangraphs vs Rotographs…the word “fantasy” in the sub URL blocks it at my work, as I imagine it does at many others. FG parent site is ok though. And Ottoneu is fine too. I know that’s outside of your purview, but just FYI

Paul Sporer: Oh dang, maybe we need to change it to rotographs instead!

Prospector: Kerry Carpenter sporting a .421 xwOBA.  Surely he has to be forcing his way out of the platoon?

Paul Sporer: Or the platoon is why it’s so high?

Paul Sporer: Gorman grand slam!!! Man, they left this Solomon guy out to dry and he got cooked… 3 straight walks then a cookie tattooed by Gorman

Prospector: Bumgarner seems toasted.  ETA on Pfaadt?

Paul Sporer: He’s BEEN toasted, though, so who knows, tbh

Paul Sporer: OK, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!