Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 17th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

Love Is A Battenfield: Who is the better pickup/stream for Friday: Gore vs the Astros or Flaherty vs the Twins?

Paul Sporer: Flaherty for me, HOU is still good vL as their offense isn’t the main culprit behind their slow start

Günter: Is it time to move on from Colt Keith? Just another prospect that experts missed on?

Paul Sporer: Stopppp, it’s been 2 weeks…

Paul Sporer: Like he might be cuttable in a shallower format bc he was probably drafted pretty late, but suggesting he’s a miss already after 62 PA is wild

Dan G: I know all about overreacting early but there are some brutal starts to the season. Abreu, Kepler, Hendricks, to a lesser extent Goldy and Julio.  Which ones have you concluded are likely done?

Paul Sporer: Goldy and Julio don’t belong on such a list. Just nowhere near worried about them. Abreu lookin rough w/the Ks way up and BBs even lower than his normal low output, plus age-37… that said, he’s a chronic slow starter w/.737 OPS in April and .800+ in every other month so I might stick w/him a bit longer. That said, it’s league size dependent and who you’re picking up matters, too. Kepler is 5 gms and Hendricks was always living on a thin margin and now as he gets older, the downside is just way too big to mess with him as far as I’m concerned

Ragans to Riches: Is Kopech must roster in a 12 team 5×5 H2H league? Would you drop Alvarado or Yates for him? I have Iglesias, and Sewald on IL.

Paul Sporer: I’d rather just keep Alvarado/Yates… they’re on markedly better teams and even as partial closers, they’re going to get more opps than Kopech being in Chicago

Handsome: Nelson Velasquez o/u 28 HRs?

Paul Sporer: If he gets 600+ PAs, I think he gets there and he’s played all but 2 games so I’ll take the over and say 30 on the button!

MS: I know it’s early…but in a shallow 8 team roto with minimal bench, are we moving on from Tanner Scott?

Paul Sporer: 8 teamers gotta be more aggressive so yes I can get behind that. Scott wasn’t great in spring and hasn’t shown anything to be all that positive about so far in the season

Winker, Taylor, Soler, Spy: Would you start Leiter against our lowly Tigers tomorrow in a 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: I’ll probably give him 2 x’s on the chart which means you can def run him in 12s. Tigers make a lottttttaaa guys playable and he’s looked wonderful so far this season

Back-Up OF: 5×5 cats 12-team. I added Jordan Walker on the wire to replace Seiya. I think he’ll turn it around but he’s losing PT in his slump. Drop Walker for Varsho/Eloy/Jung Ho Lee/Fraley?

Paul Sporer: I love Fraley, but he had 4 lefties in the 5-6 gms so now’s not the best time to scoop him. While I do love Walker, I might rock Eloy or Lee in a 12-teamer. Lee if you need some AVG, Eloy if you’re wanting the power

Ranger Suarez: Am I breaking out? I don’t seem to be doing anything new but I’m on fire

Paul Sporer: Well his BB rate has been cut in half, but it’s mostly just a hot streak and he’s a very nice Team Streamer. So I’m still sitting him v. teams like ATL/LAD, but I’m not cutting him when he’s not in the lineup

Anon: Hey, Paul! Thank you for all the great work. 13-team roto redraft league w/ OPS I came out of the draft light at 1B with Vaughn, Cronenworth, and Donovan. I traded Donovan for Pasquantino and have picked up France and Kiriloff to see if either pan out. I am now being offered Paredes for Westburg. All the projection systems say do it, but the icy coldness of Paredes’ statcast page gives me second thoughts. I know Westberg will likely not sustain at this level, but it seems this is in the range of outcomes. If/when he falls back to earth, I suspect there will be some danger of losing playing time, and this trade will seem even more obvious. Can you please gift me with your golden advice? Follow up, in a vacuum please choose the odd man out: Kiriloff Buxton Vaughn France Cortes Thanks so much!

Paul Sporer: Paredes still has 5 HRs and solid plate skills so I’d rather him than Westburg. I love the Donovan/Pasquatch move you made, too! Of that group, I think Vaughn is my odd man out. Even if he does get the bat going, the output just isn’t that great and it’s certainly not enhanced in that lineup

MS: Nico Hoerner is top 20 in OBP…but just 2 steal attempts. Is Counsell not letting him run? Does he have any roto value if he’s not stealing bases?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, he’s not just a rabbit, he brings AVG & R, too, though the R output is dinged by batting lower in the order. But yes, he has value even if he’s not running, though admittedly that value takes a significant hit. Cubs are dead last in SBs with just 2 so hard not to think this is a Counsell thing and not just a Hoerner thing. The Brewers ran well above avg in his tenure there so I wonder if this is just a blip or a change in approach based on the team. https://www.baseball-reference.com/managers/counscr01.shtml — Nothing actionable w/Hoerner right now as we just gotta wait it out a good bit longer to see what’s up and hope that Counsell lifts the perceived red light

Guest: Tork, Greene, Keith … do the Tigers have a problem preparing their hitting prospects for the majors, or is this just how it goes sometimes with 21-22 y.o. rookies? (or a little of both?) what are your thoughts on Keith’s ROS projections right now?

Paul Sporer: More the latter, if anything, and I wouldn’t include Greene w/the other 2. He’s been a plus bat as a big leaguer. Tork has been up and down w/the rough debut season, slow start last yr and then blazing summer before another slow start this year. And Keith has 2 weeks of PA.

Idiotic Failson: I know we’re still in the SSS portion of the season, but is Goldy cooked? I came into my fantasy year with Nathaniel Lowe and Goldy at 1B. I have Goldy for $20 in Ottoneu, but I’m toying with the idea of cutting him for an alternative.

Paul Sporer: You answered your question in that first sentence. It’s just too early to declare him cooked. I look at the .268 BABIP and 7% HR/FB and think a large portion of the blame lies there after .327/15% last yr and .346/19% for his career

Guest: Too rash to be done with Rodon in 12T with QS and K/BB if he does anything less than dominate Oakland? I almost cut loose last night before seeing his next opponent

Paul Sporer: You can bench him if he doesn’t pop off v. OAK, but it’d be entirely too rash to cut him Carlos Rodón 5 starts into the season

MB: Pts league with 50 move limit for whole season. Relievers are only valuable if they get saves. Drop Munoz or T Scott for Alzolay, or wait for Skenes (have first waiver priority)?

Paul Sporer: If you need the SVs badly, I like Scott for Alzolay

chris: is flaherty actually worth considering over someone like morton?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’d prefer Flaherty. Morton can snake more Ws w/mediocre and even some bad outings bc he’s on ATL, but Flaherty is the better pitcher on a per-inning basis and I’d rather bet on the skills. (And much younger age)

Guest: The daily starter chart is really helpful!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! Do y’all like the new commentary bits I’ve been doing atop the chart? And how crucial are the one-liners? I’m not going to stop doing them, but some nights I skip if it’s running late and I just wonder if that really takes away from the piece or not. The one-liners will get better as the samples grow, too. I can dig in for some useful statistical tidbits once guys have 8-10 starts

paulie eff: With plate discipline being questionable, why would the Pirates keep batting Oneil 1st?  Would he be suited better for the #6 spot?  While I love having the extra PA from a leadoff guy, when 4 of the 5 PA’s end in K’s…not as much.

Paul Sporer: (sorry letting the pups out)

Paul Sporer: But yeah obviously at 40% K, it’s untenable to keep running him up there at the 1 spot, but they have to believe he will improve there and then it just comes down to getting one of your best guys more PA which I can get behind. I’d probably go Reynolds/Suwinski/Ke’Breezy/Tellez/Cruz myself, but I’m not toooo mad about them sticking w/Cruz atop the lineup for now

IS: Is Paul Blackburn performance for real?

Paul Sporer: No, it’s some run-hot and beneficial scheduling for a solid mid-rotation type. I’d trust his 4.11 SIERA as indicator of what to expect going forward

Guest: Mike Trout is so back for the claim as the best player in baseball

Paul Sporer: Pllleeeeaaaasssseee stay healthy!!!!

Andy Pages: How much are you buying that I will be getting consistent PT? LAD seem to be saying the right things and I can definitely hit

Paul Sporer: Big Pages fan myself and this looks like a solid runway to play pretty regularly while Heyward is down. Taylor and Hernandez definitely aren’t pushing too hard and all 3 are righties so if Pages hits, he’ll keep playing. He’s firmly on my 15-team radar and at least in the mix for 12s just depending on who’s being cut and who all is available

Guest: Am I worried about Castillo? If not now how many more starts?

Paul Sporer: Luis Castillo? 0% worried. 23% K-BB and 3.06 SIERA… a .446 BABIP is insane and won’t stay that high much longer

RE: starter chart: I love it too! The one-liners aren’t totally necessary, so don’t sweat it. The x’s already provide a lot of nuance. But obviously fun to get more insight.

Paul Sporer: Awesome, thank you for the feedback! Sometimes I feel guilty when I skip the one-liners so it’s nice to hear that the absence of them doesn’t completely kill the usefulness. I figured the x’s are draw to know whether or not I’d start ’em in the particular league types and then the one-liners are just seasoning to give some more insight. I’ve also considered skipping comments for some of the obvious guys bc sometimes I’ll spend entirely too much time looking up something to say on someone like Corbin Burnes and I realize that time can be better spent elsewhere

Insert Witty Name Here: CES or Torkelson for my last UTIL slot?

Paul Sporer: Both are starting slowly so it’s not Tork’s poor line that has me leaning toward CES. I just prefer his park & lineup setup when all else is pretty equal

Guest: What are your thoughts on Jonatan Clase? Worth a spec add?

Paul Sporer: Parker Meadows HR!!!!! Woooo, he NEEEEEEDED that!

Paul Sporer: Re: Clase, he’s a speed demo and SBs are always in demand for fantasy so he’s on my radar. League size and who you’re cutting matter a lot here, too. I think I’d go for Clase in 15s only right now. He could be Victor Scottian and just not hit enough to leverage the speed

Insert Witty Name Here: In an OBP league, position doesn’t matter, would you rather have Langford or Jackson Holliday?

Paul Sporer: Langford

The Pitch Man: Who are this year’s top offenses you’re sitting your “team streamer” pitchers against?

Paul Sporer: CIN & COL at home/ATL/LAD/TEX/BAL are the ones I regularly skip and then heavily consider dodging HOU/NYY/MIL/SDP depending who the pitcher is and how they’ve been pitching of late

Mike: Is Jared Jones for real? Could he be in your top 30 going forward?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s pretty real, yeah. He’s in the top 30-40 mix, but we know they are going to manage him so there could be some random skips coming up. I don’t mind that they want to be careful, but setting an innings limit instead of pitch count limits is so stupid to me, especially since none of it has really been shown to actually work.

But it’s kinda like punting in the NFL, you don’t have to answer questions when you punt v. going for it and missing on 4th down. If you at least try these IP mgmt plans and they get hurt, you can say you tried and you avoid pushback if you were to just let them pitch (within reason, I’m not saying a rookie or ANYONE for that matter should be going 110+ pitches per gm when they’re throwing up 90s) like normal and then they got hurt.

O’Real?: O’Hearn seems to be flashing a lot of signals that this production may be for real. Is it sustainable?

Paul Sporer: Building on some good work from last year, too, so I think there is some viability. Obviously nowhere near this level, but he can continue to be a plus power bat with nice power output vR

Bob: How long would you stick with Musgrove?

Paul Sporer: Quite a bit longer. Like I was saying earlier w/Rodon, you can maybe start sitting him in a few starts, but I am nowhere near cutting him

Nate: is it to early to start getting worried about Kevin gausman

Paul Sporer: I came into the season worried about him, but even w/that said, if you drafted him I think you have to stick w/him. A .406 BABIP and 21% HR/FB (>2x his ’23 rate) has his numbers lookin silly bad right now. And while I do have some concern that he will fall short of ace expectations, I still can’t see moving on him from right now. Solid proving ground here in the next 3 w/NYY-KC-LAD.

Bob: Do you think Yates will be the Texas closer?

Paul Sporer: It’s probably still gonna be shared a bit, but I can see Yates emerging as the A-guy if he makes the most of this opportunity and stays healthy. I thought Bochy would go to David Robertson first if Leclerc flopped, but he looks like the clear setup guy, coming in for the 8th inning in each of his last 4 outings including right now in Detroit

Paul: Are you out on Hunter Brown? Or is the upside enough to hold on… Pretty brutal so far…

Paul Sporer: I was sitting him yesterday, but still really trying to avoid cutting him despite the horrendous start. So offff course he actually did something v. ATL of all teams, lol. He gets at CHC next wk… I might keep him benched and hope to see another solid start before diving back in, but if you’re light on options in a deeper league then I can get behind starting him next wk

Commentary Appreciator
Yes, can confirm we appreciate the commentary even if brief

Invasive Kerry Carpenter: The more commentary on the Daily SP charts the better! I’ll take it all! The one-liners are certainly helpful when you have time.

Paul Sporer: Awesome, thanks for the feedback! Definitely not punting the one-liners, but won’t make myself feel so guilty on the random nights where I skip ’em to get to bed at a normal time or something!

Jesse: Should I try to trade Jared Jones bc his innings are going to be limited or is he worth holding on to? Not a dynasty league

Paul Sporer: I’m certainly open to it. If you can really help your team, you gotta at least explore it

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: DATT. MAMON.

Brewers Saves: If Uribe isn’t the guy, is it safe to assume Payamps is? Potentially Megill when he gets back soon?

Paul Sporer: Yeah it seems Uribe is losing his hold on it, coming in for the 7th and 8th in his last 2 outings and Payamps closing today. It was 8-9-1 in the lineup today, too, so you can’t even make the matchups argument. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Megill finagles his way into some consideration, too. Might just be another shared job like so many around the league

Adenolith: RE: starter chart – love the commentary bits and one liners. Dream scenario? A Sunday edition that previews starters for the whole week ahead (even if without commentary) to be more useful to those of us in weekly leagues.

Insert Witty Name Here: Re: starter chart – intro is great.  Me personally don’t need blurbs on everyone but at least the interesting or questionable ones.

Paul Sporer: I have been marinating on a big Sunday edition that previews the week that is exactly like you suggest w/just the recos. I think I might have to get that done! Stay tuned. Thank y’all so much for the feedback!

Ach: Are you jumping back on the Larnach Express?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I still believe in his pop so I’ll be considering him for deeper leagues. Probably only a watch list guy in 12s or lower

Rugrats: Which version of Tanner Houck is more real? The dominant pitcher who showed up in the 1st two starts? Or the one who was giving up lots of hard contact to the Angels during his last start? He seems like he has potential, but having to pitch in Fenway with a suspect defense behind him scares me a bit

Paul Sporer: Not trying to copout, but it’s probably just “both” in that he’s going to have some inconsistency. I don’t think 12-hit affairs like his last outing will be regular, but he’ll have his duds like pitchers of his caliber. Maybe they picked up on something seeing him a 2nd time in a row, too. I still like Houck’s outlook going forward!

Codes: Is it crazy for me to think Jake Fraley is criminally underrated?! For a daily moves league, putting him in against RHP is gold.

Paul Sporer: No I’m right there w/you. I looove Fraley! A little tougher to roster in shallower leagues as a platoon guy, but in daily moves lgs like you’re saying, I’m all aboard

Sunday Edition of SP Chart: That would be AMAZING

Paul Sporer: Yours and a few others that I didn’t post would seem to appreciate a big Sunday Edition, too, so I really want to fit that into my schedule

Moelicious: Why don’t many fantasy baseball analysts respect Ranger Suarez. 480 IP, 3.32 ERA, high groundball %, low HR/9

Paul Sporer: Not sure, tbh. I’m a fan and do agree he is usually pretty underrated. Just a really solid arm on a quality team w/a great bullpen and strong lineup!

Joe: Why does a two step matter in roto? As in, what difference does it make if a guy pitches twice in one week as opposed to the next?

Paul Sporer: It’s really a weekly lineup league situation. If you can do daily changes, it’s not a huge deal. But in weekly leagues, when you’ve gotta decide on Monday, sometimes you’ll take a difficult start to ensure you get the juicy matchup against a crummy team

Mike: Choose one rest of season in a points league, Cowser or Westburg. I Need 2b and OF.

Paul Sporer: They probably aren’t TOOOO far apart, but I’m a Cowser guy. Obviously we don’t wanna just overrate him bc he was a god last week, there will be bumps along the way, but I just really like him so I’ll take him in what is more or less a toss up

Re: Jonatan Clase: Clase or fellow-rabbit David Hamilton? (OBP league)

Paul Sporer: Hamilton w/the PT edge

Paul Sporer: Hook ’em!

Milton: I get it, it’s really early, but his team is a legit contender. How long of a leash does Holliday have with those guys in the minors behind him? Again, I know it’s early but it;s been pretty rough…

Paul Sporer: He’ll get a few weeks for sure, but yeah, if he’s on the interstate (which is what they say when you have a sub-.200 AVG) a month in, he almost certainly heads back down

Kyle: Brett Baty was dropped in my 13 team keep forever points league. Do you like him enough to make a claim?

Paul Sporer: Depends on his health, he left early last night w/an injury. If it requires an IL stint, probably not scooping him

Bob: Thanks for doing the chats. They’re very helpful.

Paul Sporer: Happy to help, thanks for hanging out!

Jo: Is Jesse Winker a sneaky pick-up? Health hasn’t been there last two years, but he seems to be cooking with a healthy back to start the season.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I definitely like riding the hot hand. Talent isn’t really the question, it’s always been health so let’s see where this goes while healthy!

KC Pain: Start Gausman today vs Yankees?

Paul Sporer: Game has started, but yes I was sticking w/him — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-april-17th-2024

Guest: Can we give Kyle Hurt the ROY award just for having the perfect pitcher name for this season?

Paul Sporer: lolololol yes, but let’s hope he doesn’t follow his last name!

Guest: Any thoughts on how the Philly closer situation shakes out?  *(And thanks for the chat!)

Paul Sporer: I always like Hoffman to emerge as the A-guy but then Alvarado getting chances based on matchups and even the others like Seranthony/Kerkering/Soto getting occasional looks, too. Hoffman/Alvarado are the rosterable ones, though

Paul Sporer: Maaaannn tough break there for Detroit, booting a couple and then giving up the double to go down 5-4 heading into the bottom of the 9th

DDDDDD: This Tigers Defense is killing me (and my Shelby Miller shares)

Paul Sporer: Brutal!

Guest: What’s your outlook on Harrison Bader ROS? 3% Yahoo ownership for a 10/20 guy with regular PT seems criminally low.

Paul Sporer: I’ve always loved Bader, but health has consistently eluded him. Yahoo is also 3 OF with most of their leagues at 10-12 tms so I understand why he usually bounces around the league as a fill-in.

Paul Sporer: Storm is a-comin in Detroit! It almost looks like a night game all of a sudden

Hot Pocket: Andres Gimenez for George Kirby straight up in an AL-only keeper league. Which side do you like?

Paul Sporer: Kirby, not worried about him at all

Matt: Who has 2 thumbs and was too afraid to start Michael King in Ottoneu today? (70 pt performance)

Paul Sporer: Ahhh man, that’s tough!! I respect Milwaukee’s lineup for sure, especially in their park, but love King so I’m really only sitting him v. the likes of LAD/ATL

KCBBq: Stanton or Cowser ROS in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Running Stanton while upright

Lisan Al Gaib: Paul Atreides Skenes is on the wire in my 12 team 5×5 H2H redraft league. Would you give up a streaming SP spot to stash him now?

Paul Sporer: Pesky Paul! If you can afford it, I’m OK trying to jump his call-up. We just never know when guys’ll be called up, so as long as it’s not hurting you, go for it. Just be smart and if you need the spot soon bc of injuries or something, then you move on

J.W.: Langford or Winker ROS?

Paul Sporer: Still Langford, but I do like going for Winker while he’s healthy

Matt: Reading through the earlier part of the chat, I like the one liners on the SP chart. Nice to see a little insight into each one. Obviously a lot of extra work for you though

Paul Sporer: No prob! They’re not going away! Still will have occasional nights where I can only do the chart, but I like doing the one-liners so they will remain in most editions!

Guest: Thanks for chatting!  Outman, Yoshida, Carpenter, Marsh–2 best OF options among those four?

Paul Sporer: Outman/Carp for me. Tough group to pare down. Yoshida’s AVG will go up and Marsh has been showing nice power right now, but I worry about his plate skills (Outman K’s a lot, too, but at least he walks unlike Marsh). So yeah, that’s my duo

Paul Sporer: Yates was filthy there in the 9th. Cut up the top of the lineup for the Tigers

Joe: Cedric Mullins with a walk off. Is he back?

The Kid: Cedric Mullins back?

DDDDDD: CEDRIC!!!! (for Justin)

CEDRICK. MULLINS.: Cedric. Mullins.

Paul Sporer: Ced’s lookin great! Now 5 HR and 3 SB on the year. Hitting like this secures his PT, but he also has the fact that he plays a true CF so yeah he’s great right now!

Daniel: Would you pick up Winker over Candy man or Kiriloff?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m good getting Winker for Kirilloff and riding the hot hand while he’s healthy!

NetflixnRichHill: Love you, Paul!! Fried with 4 walks to 1 K today so far. Only one game so far with at least 10% swinging strike rate. I’m in a 10 team yahoo head to head and I’m wondering if i should hold on, try to trade, or just drop. On the wire I see Luzardo (who I have a claim in for to replace Lugo already), Tyler Wells, Hunter Brown, Edward Cabrera – you like any of these guys more? And just so you have all info, my other SPs are P Lopez, Sale, Crochet, Houck, Ober, Lugo, Gil, with Pivetta, Bradish, and Senga on the IL.

Paul Sporer: It’s ugly right now, but I think you gotta hold (unless you can find a fair-ish sell low deal… no one will pay top dollar, but there are some sell lows I wouldn’t mind) and see if he can work through this. Given his history, I’m definitely nervous that he’s hurt again, but unless we get confirmation of that, I’m gonna ride it out

Prospector: Taking a fat zero from Suzuki all week.  Ban the Patriot’s day game!

Paul Sporer: Ban locking lineups when the first game of the week starts. We have the technology, there’s just no reason for that IMO! That said, I understand your frustration. I would just lobby your league to change the rule since we know the Patriot’s Day game isn’t going anywhere!

Paul Sporer: Alright y’all, I’m gonna head out! I gotta get some lunch. Thanks so much for all the messages and hanging out for a marathon chat. I do a boxscore review show 3x a week on my Twitch channel at https://twitch.tv/sporer where you can ask fantasy questions as we just hang out and talk baseball for an hour or 2 on Monday-Thursday-Friday. Tomorrow’s episode starts at 8am CT! See y’all later!!!