Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 16th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!

bobby miller: hope all is well, thanks for doing this, do you think i will pitch productively against the colorado rockies today?

Paul Sporer: I reeeeaaalllyy hope. It’s a very soft landing spot, but it does mean that if he doesn’t pitch well v. them, we should probably have some concern (within reason, as we never wanna take any 1 start TOO far out of proportion)

HOLD THE MAYO: Can we bring him up already?

Paul Sporer: Can he pitch? I know BAL’s hitting is lagging a bit, too, but the pitching concerns me WAAAYYY more

Guest: estaban says carroll won’t be a 215 wRC+ bat all season… fiiine, I’ll take the 195

Paul Sporer: LOLOL, we can settlllllle for 195

Guest: why did the cubs even start the season with shaw if they were going to pull this quickly. what do we do if he comes out of his next Iowa game with a completely different batting stance

Paul Sporer: I think part of it is on us as fantasy players. We put too much stock on breaking/not breaking camp. It was nice that he got to go to Tokyo and was given a shot and while I’d never pretend 68 PA is some grand sample, he also just doesn’t look great and they’ve determined it’s better to iron it out at AAA than in the majors

Joe: Does any part of Geraldo Perdomo’s hot start feel sustainable? Elite chase % and contact % does feel like he could be a very high batting average guy

Paul Sporer: Yes, though I say this as a Perdomo fan so I want to be careful on falling victim to confirmation bias. That said, I love a player who comes up as early as he did (debuted at 21) and has been able to essentially learn on the job bc his SS glove earned him reps. The plate skills w/5% K and 18% BB is my favorite part of the breakout. I don’t think either will hold at THOSE levels, but if he’s low double-digits (10-13%) in both categories, I’ll take that ALLLL day. Huge, huge fan, would scoop him in shallow lgs where he’s still available (sub-50% at Y!, just over 50% at ESPN)

Los Tigres?: I need your blessing to jettison Reese Olson. Is this 4 ETA, 7 k/9 who he really is now? Landen Roupp would be the replacement. Easton Lucas is also around. This league is a keep forever dynasty with no salaries.

Paul Sporer: I really like Roupp, but I’m holding firm on Olson for a bit longer. Anyone else you could cut to get Roupp while holding Olson?

Guest: ben brown or springs for the rest of the year?

Paul Sporer: Shoot for the upside w/Brown. Springs is a streamer, but it’s tough bc his home starts are dodgy if a tough tm comes in bc of that park

Dave: Time to cut Shane Smith with @BOS and @MIN coming up?  Just bank the profit.

Paul Sporer: Really depends on league size and who’s available

Guest: Who’s the best IL stash? Tobias Myers, Tony Gonsolin or Dick Fitts?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Myers stan!

3B Spec: Follow-up 3b question – Bohm was just dropped. would you go with him, Norby, or Vierling?

3B Spec: Any good specs for a shallow points league for a backup 3B.  Vierling and Norby are both out there. Going for upside.

Paul Sporer: whoops, posted these out of order… but anyway, I’d go for Bohm over the other 2

wmquirk: Is it time to panic and sell Yainer Diaz yet?

Paul Sporer: No, I can’t get there yet. A .135 BABIP will definitely regress and bring his numbers up. I’m holding and would maybe even buy low

Tony: At this point, is it safe to pull the plug on Carlos Correa as a viable fantasy asset?

Paul Sporer: Shallower leagues I can see moving on. He’s better than this, but it’s not JUST a low BABIP so scooping someone else in 10s and 12s makes sense. Just not sure 15s are gonna have anything on the wire worth dropping him for

Bubic: Great start, where do you see this going?

Paul Sporer: I’m a believer. They’ve been small samples, but we’ve seen good Bubic now for parts of 3 seasons and I think there’s a real breakout here

Joe: The pod has been very pitcher focused lately. Is it just that there’s more to talk about with pitchers early on, your preference, or what?

Paul Sporer: Yes a single gm for a pitcher is a bigger sample so a bit more to dive into, but that said I do have a hitter show planned tomorrow. I don’t want to neglect hitters entirely. Content in general is tough early on bc not too much is actionable, but overall I generally find SPs to be far more actionable early on

Los Tigres?: And now a pivot to minimally rostered Marlins. Will Edward Cabrera ever resolve his walk issue? Do I hold Jesus Sanchez in the hopes he gets traded? Keep either, or dump both and use the spot for someone else.

Paul Sporer: I’m not the biggest Cabrera fan. I get chasing the upside, but we’re really hoping he tames the walks as I doubt he ever fully resolves it. I would hold Sanchez and see some time with him to see where things go

Roman Anthony: I’m awesome — when do I make it to Boston?

Paul Sporer: Call-up Qs are nearly impossible to answer, tbh. An injury can flip an answer immediately so any OF inj. would likely bring Anthony up. Beyond that, I have to imagine Rafaela is looking over his shoulder right now. A 58 wRC+ after a 79 coming into the season put him in some danger of becoming either a super utility guy as a defensive super-sub or getting sent out

Joe: I know you and Justin make fun of some of the knee jerk early reactions (justifiably) but at what point does terrible performance need to be considered real? Like, I dunno, Marcus Semien????

Paul Sporer: Even coming off a lesser year like last yr for Semien, I’m not quitting this early. If you bought back in this year, I think you gotta go at least 5-6 wks before pulling the plug. He has .125 BABIP but his exit velos are in line and I’m gonna ride it out a bit. I’m also a Semien superfan, so I want to be clear on that.

the dude: 12 team – Verlander unownable?

Paul Sporer: He’s still fringe. I’m not gonna say you must hold espec. after another dud last night, but I think he’s close, I really do

Paul Sporer: Also worth noting that JV is yet another SUPER favorite of mine, lol. I promise I’m not just picking Qs w/guys I love, y’all are just asking about a buncha my faves

Dave: Do you generally churn roster spots or do you generally give any pickup a little time before moving on?

Paul Sporer: I try to have 2-3 spots worth churning week to week

Guest: how often do “buy/sell high/low” trades actually happen? I guess they’re decreasingly common as the league talent gets better

Paul Sporer: I think it’s entirely lg dependent, tbh. Heavy trade leagues still have ’em

Insert Witty Name Here: Any updates on Kirby?

Paul Sporer: Haven’t seen anything in a bit, but still holding firm on him

Sack of Suds: Matt Mervis gonna OPS over 1.000 all season?

Paul Sporer: I wish but highly doubt it

Joey Bag o’Donuts: Bailey Ober getting hammered every time out.  Any reason to panic?

Paul Sporer: Not sure I agree w/the framing that he’s getting hit EVERY time out — 2.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP in his L3 after the season opening dud for him. The homers are an ever-present issue but if he’s keeping the bases clean as we’ve seen during the L3, it’s not as big a problem. Hold the line!

Daniel: Would you be trying to sell high on Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 in a 15 team Roto?

Paul Sporer: If you can improve your team, I’m not against it, but I believe in him as a plus bat. Not 205 OPS+, of course, but big AVG, good speed, and a bit o’ pop. So feel free to test the market to see where it’s at, but don’t try to sell him bc you’re worried about a collapse

linc: Festa or Zebby ends the season returning more value?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Zebby guy for sure. And one of the big reasons is I think he can go 5+ more consistently and….

Chucky: Festa can’t seem to make it into the 5th, 4.2, 4.1. Should I accept that Rocco is not going to allow this guy to throw more than 70 something pitches and move on to a Bido, Sears type?

Paul Sporer: As Chucky points out, Festa does not consistently make it through 5. He has a times-through-the-order issue for sure. And it’s not just 3rd time through, the 2nd time through gives Festa trouble

JoJo: Does Alan Roden play once Varsho returns?

Paul Sporer: It could be dicey given how well Straw is playing so Roden almost certainly loses PT when Varsho returns

Not Colt Keith: Asking for a friend – is he in danger of getting sent down with Gleyber back and Tork on an absolute heater?

Paul Sporer: Not yet, no. There’s room for all of ’em rn: Gleyber 2B, Tork 1B, Keith DH (at least vR, Keith has been sitting vL). He has to improve or PT might start drying up, though. He’s taking a ton of walks, but that’s really it. And we can’t just point to the low BABIP and say it’ll improve bc he’s not striking the ball very well right now. They stuck w/him last yr and he got better so I think they’ll give him a chance to come out of it again

Jrob: Strat o matic question! Trying to decide who to go with my top 5 starters moving forward. Will probably try to trade the rest. Of these which 5 do you like best?                                            Sandy Alcantara
Shane Baz
Taj Bradley
Garrett Crochet
Michael King
Jesus Luzardo
Shane McClanahan
Joe Ryan
Blake Snell.

Paul Sporer: Crochet, McClanahan, Snell, King, and Sandy? Deep group there but those are the 5 I gravitate toward!

Feather in Cap: Zac Veen looking lost.  I cut bait.  Gonna regret it?

Paul Sporer: Perhaps a little early after just 30 PA, but I fully expected a butt-ton of Ks so I’m not even surprised by the 37% K rate and I understand moving on, especially if it’s a medium or shallow lg

Waylon: Tyler O’Neill just got dropped in my 12-team mixed – am I missing something.

Paul Sporer: What the heck?! That seems wild to me. I don’t get it. I just checked news again, I don’t see anything that backs cutting him

Insert Witty Name Here: Taylor Ward on fire this week. Him or Randy Arozerena in OBP

Paul Sporer: I liked Ward before the season over Randy so I’m sticking w/him. I found Ward to be underrated at the draft table, tbh

Izzy: How hard is it to have chats when we’re still in small sample territory? Or does it not matter for fantasy purposes? For a sabermetric site that understands SSD it seems weird that people are making decisions based on 1/10th of the season.

Paul Sporer: It’s tough bc ppl wanna get in there and manage their rosters, but with the top 2/3rds of your roster, the best advice is to let it breathe for a month-plus (and longer for the top 1/3rd). This is one of the disadvantages of the internet age — the up the second stats. We’re still in that zone where you can go from 10th to 1st with a huge day…. and then right back down to 7th the next day. It’s hard, but the best thing to do right now is beeee patient. That doesn’t mean you don’t do ANYTHING, but you should have 1-3 roster spots at the bottom of your order that you can churn and chase the hot hands, but if you’re cutting guys in the upper half  or top 2/3rds of your lineup based solely on performance, you’re almost certainly making a mistake.

Kevin: Someone dropped Christian Walker in my 14-team H2H league. Would you drop Vinnie P or Yandy for him?

Paul Sporer: Maaaybe Yandy. I’m still in on Walker despite his slow start… I just hope the low #s aren’t tied to the oblique so far. If you don’t really need the AVG-focused profile of Yandy, I can see making the move, but it’s not a slamdunk must-do given the 1B you have

Monopoly Moneyball: Heard on the radio last night that Justyn-Henry Malloy’s nickname was ABS (for automated balls and strikes), was he actually that much of a plate discipline standout?

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, he’s a laser eye. He almost pushes toward toooo patient sometimes as he seems to be seeking out the walk first and foremost

Mike: Is Uribe someone you are adding right now in case Megill is out?

Paul Sporer: I actually did end up getting him in a lg this past weekend, but I sort regretted it and kinda think Nick Mears could be the guy if Megill is merked. Uribe is getting used mid-game lately and hasn’t been used later than the 7th yet. 3 of Mears’ 5 outings have been in the 8th, I think he’s the next guy up

Chucky: Despite their criticism, did the O’s make the right call in not offering Burnes the money and time he sought? Three starts in is roughly 10% of his starts and he certainly doesn’t look like he’s worth a buck three eighty

Paul Sporer: Maaaaybe on Burnes specifically, but definitely not in their decision to not go get a stud arm. I hate how they’ve handled things w/this build. And it’s not like Grayson getting hurt was some grand shock. So once they lost him, it really exposed how thin they were and even his return won’t do much to fix things IMO

Jim Leyland Palmer: Is Jesus Luzardo a sell-high guy to you or would you let it ride with him

Paul Sporer: I’m inclined to let it ride unless if I have pitching depth and need hitting. His talent is there, it’s always been about health with him. So I’ll gamble on him staying healthy and stick w/him

Guest: 1/10 is a lot of banked stuff! just not necessarily telling

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say a lot. And the cliche I lean on at this time of year is that we’d barely notice so much of this if it was a random 10-12 gms in June/July and that’s 100% true. It’s just not terribly actionable for SO many guys

Tim: Any reason to hang on to Halvorsen if Mears is available?

Paul Sporer: No, I’d make the switch

Kevin: Thoughts on Strider today?

Paul Sporer: Boxscore scouting only as I’m watching my Tigers, but looks good to me. 5 Ks in 6 IP, 13 swinging strikes, and allowed to throw 97 pitches. If you took the shot on Strider, I can’t imagine being anything but ecstatic about this debut

Guest: why do the tigers refused to let kelly carpenter hit versus lefties to the point of pinch hitting ibanez for him and playing javy baez in center?

Paul Sporer: The .611 career OPS vL doesn’t help his case. Now I think sometimes that is a self fulfilling prophecy w/young lefties as they are just given so few opportunities to improve vL but I just don’t think the Tigers are gonna sacrifice the ABs of trying to let him figure it out when they have Ibanez there to handle lefties. Carp’ll get the occasional start, but it’s unlikely that they just turn him loose and start him every single game

Guest: I agree with you on the actionability, I just don’t think it’s still meaningless whether you’re 1st-3rd range or 10th-12th. if you got the first 10% of questions wrong on a school test you’d need to be perfect “RoS” to get an A! but yeah you could still get the A

Paul Sporer: I don’t think that test comparison really holds. You only need to get a hit 3 of 10 times to be considered a god in this game, so doing 2 of 10 for 10 games just doesn’t matter to me

Paul Sporer: I’m sorry, I’m just never gonna be convinced to care a ton about 10-12 games when it comes to the bulk of my roster. And I know you granted the actionable part of it, but that’s the whole point. So even if there is some meaning to it, if I’m not acting on it, why do I care that much, ya know?

Insert Witty Name Here: Dear Paul I feel like I can call you Paul because you and me are so alike. I’d like to meet you one day, it would be great to have a catch. I know I can’t throw as fast as you but I think you’d be impressed with my speed. I love your hair, you run fast. Did you have a good relationship with your father? Me neither. These are all things we can talk about and more. I know you have no been getting my letters because I know you would write back if you did. I hope you write back this time, and we can become good friends. I am sure our relationship would be a real homerun!

Paul Sporer: LOOOOOL, we gotta end the chat w/this!! Very well done

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming out, y’all. Thought I’d have to cut it early, but was able to work around a couple things and actually go a bit longer than the planned hour. Back next week, take care!