Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 12th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

Greg: What’s your evaluation of Bubic? You buying the breakout?

Paul Sporer: I’m in for the pickup to see if it’s real. In today’s fantasy game, we can’t really wait for things to stabilize statistically so if someone spikes their velo with major K & BB improvements, I’ll take a shot. GB spike and former prospect status only adds to the intrigue

Petey: Which post hype OF do you like more Kelenic or Marsh?

Paul Sporer: Justin, don’t you have work to do?

Paul Sporer: I’m not much higher on one than the other, tbh, as they’re both showing similar gains early on. Might lean Kelenic ever so slightly

Insert Witty Name Here: If Seager is out, would you rather replace with Stott or Kim in an OBP league?

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat. In light of Seager’s impending IL stint, who do you prefer in 12tm 6×6 roto: Arcia, Turang, Kim, Abrams or Tovar

Paul Sporer: For Witty, I’m leaning Kim very slightly. They aren’t too different for me as I like both.

For Hank, I’m going Kim with a bigger separation. Turang is 2, but I’m still a bit suspect on how much fantasy juice he will have.

B’ryce Szymbobski: Paul! I need some serious help… shallow points league: Do I drop Nootbarr or Andrew Vaughn for Kelenic? Or Gunnar Henderson?

Paul Sporer: Even in a shallow lg, I really don’t like dropping those guys, but if you must, I’ll go with the hurt guy

Tulip: In a 12-team league, who are some unheralded relievers that you’re liked early on this year?

Paul Sporer: Throw me some names of who’s available that you’re considering. I don’t like picking names out of thin air bc I have no idea who might be free in your league

Hayden Wesnescki: I absolutely imploded. How long of a leash do I have to turn things around?

Paul Sporer: Nightmare start yesterday, less concerned about the debut in Cincy. That said, if a trip to OAK next week isn’t the Rx needed for a gem, I’m inclined to consider moving on in shallower formats. I say that as a big Wes fan this year, too

Joe: Kerry Carpenter break out–statcast is blushing RED, same with Lamonte Wade…Either valueable in 9 team deep league?

Paul Sporer: Probably not in a shallow lg right now as there are just likely better options, but I am a Carp fan. He got robbed by Kiermaier yesterday with a HR-stealing catch and then another one to the track that KK caught, too (less of a robbery, though). Carpenter has 25+ HR pop IMO

I’m screwed: Wesneski, Schmidt, E-Rod all drops in 12T points?

Paul Sporer: Wes if he flops at OAK as mentioned above, Schmidt yes, and E-Rod I’m still holding rn. The real question is who you’re picking up for them.

Salty: Follow up to last week’s chat – Gary Cohen mentioned the umps have a buzzer tied to the clock, so it would seem unlikely that a team can challenge a pitch clock miss, which is good news.  Not sure about some of the scenarios the other chatters brought up, they sure had some interesting possibilities.

Paul Sporer: Ah, good to know! I think they were just talking about that stuff on the broadcast, right? I’m bouncing between the 4 gms rn and think it was them discussing it

Chris: Is Grayson Rodriguez playable in smaller redraft leagues or should he be cut?

Paul Sporer: PSA: if you’re asking about a cut, include who you’re picking up bc that’s the biggest factor. For now, I’m holding Grayson Rodriguez to see what’s up as I don’t want to just dump him after one bad control outing

Chris: Should people be buying gore?

Paul Sporer: Certainly can in deeper leagues where you need pitching. There is a real upside to the one-time top prospect

Mike F: Are we believing in Kelenic? Spring and 2.5 weeks of regular season. Or is there negative regression ahead.

Paul Sporer: Definitely regression coming on a .429 BABIP, but if he can hold the plate skill gains, he can certainly have a breakout year. Ride it for now but monitor the K/BB rate closely

Sean: Do you update your rankings mid-season on this page? The “Updated” timestamp of today at noon seems to be misleading if not. And if you haven’t since pre-season, do you plan to? https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/rankings/expert?expert=Sporer

Paul Sporer: We will be updating regularly through the season (we’re hammering out the timeframe this week and it will be noted on the site). It’ll be every other week on a certain day

Nate: Do you have confidence in starting Sale today against the Rays?

Paul Sporer: Not a tonnnn but I’m still doing it. I know he’s not peak Sale, but it’s still a trust your studs situation for me

E: Nick Anderson has looked like pre-injury Nick Anderson so far. Are you dropping Michael King (Hlds and Saves League) or AJ Puk (Saves only league) for him?

Paul Sporer: He has looked sharp for sure! Toss up with King who himself is quite good when healthy and I would be OK to scoop him for Puk even though his SV chances are temporary until Raisel returns (but that is uncertain right now, so ride Anderson while we can)

Cole: What to do with Munoz? He wasn’t closing or looking elite, but need another RP arm. How should I hold him or cut?

Paul Sporer: Cutting in most formats

Sam: Eduardo Julien — is he stay for real–worth a spec add?

Paul Sporer: What kinda lg and who’s the cut? (same rule applies to that earlier PSA just in reverse… gotta know who we’re cutting to give a legit answer)

Paul Sporer: General take: I do like Julien in deeper formats off rip. Not a must scoop in 10s and 12s right now. Would be happy to answer a more specific question with more info, Sam

RGS: Is the Austin Hays breakout upon us? The numbers under the hood look very good and the performance over the last couple days back them up

Paul Sporer: Far too early to say anyone’s breakout and flameout is here bc we’re still very much in the zone where a good 2 gms or series completely flips someone’s numbers. That said, I am intrigued by both Hays & Mountcastle finding some early pop at home. I was off both as the new dimensions ate up their power last yr so I wasn’t sure there was going to be a fix (still not this early, but both are worthy starts in most formats right now)

Guest: Hey Paul, love the content. 10- team OBP Lg, when Nootbaar comes back, do I cut Francisco Alvcarez or Brian Anderson? Have Sean Murphy at catcher.

Paul Sporer: Alvarez. I rarely trust rookie Cs all that much. O’Hoppe is more exception than rule (and it’s been 10 days so it’s not like he’s even a certainty). I just don’t like relying on young Cs to hit, espec. in 1-C lgs

Chip: Time to start worrying about Lance Lynn? I know his last start was better, but yeesh.

Paul Sporer: Off a 10 K, 0 BB gm? No.

infieldMess: Rest of the way: B. Donovan, Paredes or Julien? It is 6 cat with OBP.

Paul Sporer: Donovan. That’s my order for them. Julien’s best format is OBP, but those 2 are still better IMO

Kate: Does it seem like more SPs than normal are struggling out of the gate?  Many seeing velo drops, but many also just struggling in general.  Is there something league wide going on here?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s just normal early season stuff

Jon: Are you buying into Josh Lowe’s improving plate discipline? He has 25/25 type upside if it’s real. I would drop Turang for him

Paul Sporer: Yes I’d take him over Turang. Don’t just blindly trust him, stay monitoring the K/BB, but let’s ride it while he’s hot bc the upside is indeed massive

Jack: Kolton Wong’s BABIP is is the whole explanation for his struggles, right? How concerned are you this early?

Paul Sporer: Yeah pretty much entirely the BABIP. While I wasn’t really drafting him, I’m not cutting if you have him nor am I taking any kind of victory lap on this. The hits will start falling

Oh you got Julks?: Re: your discussion of Chas on the pcast – Julks is Rule 5, so might stay up when Bradley comes back. But still feels like Chas is the starter regardless.

Paul Sporer: Wait how is he Rule 5 for them? He’s only ever been with HOU

Chris: Where do you stand on giolito? Is he going to figure it out or just be who he’s been for over a year?

Paul Sporer: I liked him to bounce back this year so I’m sticking with him for now

Paul Sporer: Looks like someone discovered the reactions in the chat… yeesh

I’m screwed: Seems kinda weird for Happ to sign a 3-year extension right?

Paul Sporer: Why’s that?

Former #1 pick: Josh Lowe??  Take a shot?  Never mind the drop, i got plenty of Holds guys (S/H) I can mix and match

Paul Sporer: This one came in before I answered the other one, so just doubling down to say yes on picking him up and riding the hot bat

Chris: Just saw your tweet – Gavin Sheets absolutely merked himself!! Why can’t CWS field an actual defensive team??

Paul Sporer: That’s how I’d (and most of the Twitter dweebs who think they’d get a hit in 100 tries off an MLBer) look out there, lol

Pablo the Bruce: Some clown in our normally competitive league dropped Teoscar. How much of my $100 budget should I bid? I’m pretty desperate for OF help. 10 teamer, H2H, 7X6 cats.

Paul Sporer: While I was not in on Teoscar this yr, cutting him is kinda silly. I wouldn’t go crazy bc there’ll be plenty of talent cycling through a 10-teamer, but $25-30 bucks, espec. if you can do $0 bids

Paul Sporer: FYI, you can click the little person icon above the chat box & turn off reactions if you’re kinda over the child who is putting one to every comment.

Paul Sporer:

Cannery Row: Griffin Canning coming back. Is he taking Jose Suarez’s job?

Paul Sporer: Aren’t they running a 6?

Hunter Greene: How worried are you about my start? Or is it par for the course with my shaky command.

Paul Sporer: The latter. This is the downside in drafting guys with 35-40 command. I’m not cutting him or anything

Chip: Re: Lance Lynn – yes, 10k, 0BB. BUT – 2 HR and 7H. He’s also giving up 2HR a game.

Paul Sporer: :shrug: Yeah, I mean, whattya gonna do, cut him? I just can’t overreact to a few starts like that for guys I invested a pretty big draft pick in. Not trying to be flippant or anything, just think we starting looking too deeply for things on established guys early in the season

Craig: What’s your concern level on Manoah on a scale of 1-10? Yes, its still early but the velo drop in conjunction with the lack of control seems scary

Paul Sporer: It’d be kinda funny if I said 10 after that Lynn diatribe. But no, it’s a 3-4 area. Some concern, but I’m nowhere near sitting him. Absent something coming out re: his health, it seems mechanical and thus fixable. Gotta ride it out

Sean: What is Eovaldi’s upside? Top 30? Will homers just always plague him? Eovaldi’s 33 and I feel like he’s more team streamer in 12s. Want to drop for more upside like Taj

Paul Sporer: Definitely a team streamer in 10s and 12s, but no shot I’d drop for Taj right now. We just don’t know what kind of leash Bradley is going to have with TB. He threw 51 and 55 pitches in his 2 MiLB starts. He might not reach 5 IP for a bit in the majors

Kate: How many games before we start to buy into notable changes in plate discipline metrics?

Paul Sporer: Stabilization for K rate is around 60 PA and BB is at 120 which means they have some viability that you can fold into the sample more confidently

Salty: Ashcraft pitched well again, but had a low CSW relative to his stuff.  Think it’s time to sell high or ride out his high GB% and hope there is true K growth?

Paul Sporer: I def wish we were seeing more whiffs, but I’m still riding with him. When you say sell high do you mean take the 2 gems & move on or trade him? I’m not sure what you’d get in a trade, but if you think you can make an upgrade, then that’s chill for sure

The cream and the clear: 10 team ops league: would you hold M Straw or S Suzuki if players such as Kelenic, Robles, B Marsh are available?

Paul Sporer: I’m holding Suzuki for at least another wk or so as he’s hoping to make it back this wknd. I’m not averse to moving on from Straw if you’re not dependent on his SBs. That said, he is cooking on the bases and while I’ve been a vocal opponent of drafting him, that was at a high draft price. He was dirt cheap/a waiver pick this yr so if he’s your primary SB source, I’m OK just riding it and letting those 3 OFs sit out there

Paul Sporer: That’s a good example of what Justin & I often say on the show: so-and-so belongs on a roster, but maybe not your roster. Any of those 3 OFs could be scooped in a 10, but you just might not have the fit for ’em

J: Are you dropping Wil Myers for Cooper, Wisdom, or Belt? Also, are you worried about Manoah?

Paul Sporer: Nah I’m riding it out with Myers a bit longer. Mentioned Manoah a bit earlier, not super concerned just yet

Bill: What are your thoughts on Brian Anderson?

Paul Sporer: Always liked him. Plus bat who finally has a favorable park to play in and can be a nice piece if he stays healthy

Nate: Is there a guy you have more faith in moving forward between Casas and Torkelson?

Paul Sporer: I liked Casas a bit more coming into the season, but they aren’t too far apart for me. Nothing early on has really changed my outlook on ’em, so I’m fine just picking your favorite there

Jumped the shark: MLB, the Phanatic is not zen

Paul Sporer: LOLOL right? He’s about as chaotic as it gets!

Paul Sporer: (brb, gonna be a small delay until the next Q)

Jekyll and HIDE: Was Heaney’s two starts the greatest discrepancy in back to back game scores of all time? I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone look utterly useless one week and then tie the AL record for consecutive K’s the next

Paul Sporer: LOL I gotta imagine we’ve seen that kinda split before, but it’s definitely up there for the biggest split

Paul Sporer: (also why we don’t make major judgments off 1 start… guarantee Heaney was cut in a ton of spots after the mega dud)

Maris9: Currently in last place in NL only. Received trade offer — Luzardo for Oneil Cruz. What you thin?

Paul Sporer: Keeper I presume? If so, I’d be OK taking Cruz if you really believe this is a dead year for you. If you’re just off to a slow start & still competing this yr, don’t do it

Why not Zoidberg?: Any slow starters you’d be targeting in a league that’s pretty reactionary to slow starts?

Paul Sporer: Generally anyone drafted in a single-digit rd that I liked a few wks ago during draft season. I know that’s a bit broad, but the net is that wide. If anyone is off guys like that, sign me up. Justin was getting “what’s wrong with Max Muncy” Qs on Monday, I was getting asked about Bregman’s “slow start” in my Twitch chat earlier this wk. Now both still have low AVGs bc it’s not always fixed in a day or 2, but both have multiple HRs this wk and I have zero concern about either

Insert Witty Name Here: Thoughts on The Show 23?

Paul Sporer: Really enjoying it! The Negro League Storylines mode is incredible

Gunnar Control: Is everyone wrong about another top prospect – Gunnar Henderson?? Referencing past couple of years Torkelson, Kelenic.

Paul Sporer: It’s been 10 days. And I say that as someone who didn’t love him at his cost, but in no way do I think I was “right” about anything at this juncture. It’s just FAR too early to make any sweeping judgments like that

Insert Witty Name Here: Is Jordan Walker more valuable at 3B or OF?

Paul Sporer: That’s likely team dependent. In a vacuum, I’d say 3B

Eh?: I picked up Jhony Brito as a streamer, but at this point should I just keep him? 12 team points league

Paul Sporer: Can make ’em the ol’ team streamer for now, reserve him in tougher matchups instead of giving your leaguemates the chance to scoop him off the wire.

Sean: Desperate for steals, have Ruiz but nothing is moving–should I add Straw for Ruiz or hold onto Wil Myers? Who goes/stays?

Paul Sporer: If you’re desperate for SBs, scoop Straw immediately! I’d just flip Ruiz for Straw as I really like Myers & I’m not ready to move on from him yet

B’ryce Szymbobski: Matt Chapman gonna be a stud after all?

Paul Sporer: If he can get the Tigers all year (think I heard that it was his 4th straight gm w/a HR v. DET). Jokes aside, I’m not sure he’s all that different than the last couple yrs. He’s riding an OBSCENE .581 BABIP. If the improving K% and SwStr% stick, we could get more of a .250 AVG which would be a great boost to go with his pwr, but for now I’m just treating him like the guy I drafted

Tyler O’Neill: Am I having just a slow start to the year? Or am I more 2022 than 2021?

Paul Sporer: more ’22 than ’21. His pwr & spd will come but ’21 will always be his career year

Kate: How worried should we be about Josh Bell?  Small sample, but this kind of looks like a continuation of last year’s issues.

Paul Sporer: Well, it was really just w/SD that he had issues. His WSN sample was excellent. So 100 good gms, 50 bad ones. I see a .138 BABIP as the biggest culprit and remain unfazed for now

W: Elias Diaz or Jonah Heim?

Paul Sporer: Heim

Stuff+: Sch… has 3 ERs already. His stuff+ numbers are high. So are Kikuchi and Sears and Turnbull. Any of these guys spark joy?

Paul Sporer: Not a terrible outing for Schmidt, but he’s a deep lg play only right now. He’s still figuring things out at the big league level and it will breed volatility

Date, Marry, Kill: Paul Picks Edition: Hayden Wesneski, Wil Myers, Riley Greene

Paul Sporer: Oooh, that’s tough! Dating Myers (still think he will eat in GABP), marrying Greene (long-term!), and I gotta merk Wes that means. We only started our relationship late last season so I can cut ties lol

No Catcher Strats: I usually play no catcher, in a 1C league 12 team, because their production is FAAAAR lower than a bench bat. O’Hoppe has been so good I’m contemplating dropping Baez for him. Is that the better play? I still think Baez can pull 20/10/.230 which imo is more valuable than the paltry 15/0/.230 catchers usually have

Paul Sporer: I’d be surprised if taking zeros is a positive EV play, tbh. Especially in 12-team. There are 12 viable catchers for sure

Speculator: Any guess Elly De La Cruz gets called up?

Paul Sporer: April… of next year

Paul Sporer: I’d be really surprised if he debuts this year. Tons of swing and miss in his game, only has 200 PA at AA, and hasn’t even started playing yet this year

Kevin: Does Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 continue getting regular playing time when Tatis returns?

Paul Sporer: For sure. Isn’t Tatis going to the OF?

MikeB: Any worries about Roansy Contreras long-term in 15-teamers? He posted a ridiculous .600 BABIP in his last start (vs. HOU).

Paul Sporer: No additional worries. He was still a big time risk of a pick this year and hasn’t been great to start. Still a volatile upside play

Alex Lange: Still looks like the closer, but he’s been a nightmare. Worth holding?

Paul Sporer: Not if you can pluck some saves off the wire. Kind of a righty Soto and we know how volatile he was with the Tigers. Plus, a bad team that won’t present many SV opps in the first place

Carson: Does fangraphs have somewhere to view league-wide data? I’m curious how many batters have been hit in total so far this year compared to this point in other years

Paul Sporer: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0…

Sad tigers fan: Paul can we get a prayer circle going for the Detroit bats and bullpen?

Paul Sporer: Yes, but it’ll probably have to last all year

Jon: Victor Robles has improved plate discipine kind of similar to Josh Lowe. Robles has 50/60 SB upside if his is real, are you buying? He might be a post hype sleeper and I know he still doesn’t hit the ball all that hard

Paul Sporer: I’m one of those suckers who’s been in on Robles forever so you better believe I’m digging these early gains. Picking him up where available. Definitely one we have to monitor week-to-week to make sure he doesn’t fall off the table, but I have some hope!

Nick Drake: Please rank Badoo, J. Lowe, A. Hayes ROS OBP league

Paul Sporer: Lowe, Hays, Baddoo

Summertime Sadness: Always prefer a guy in the majors and playing over a non-elite prospect in the minors? Debating cutting either baty or casas for outman

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Baty fan, but yes I’m cutting him for Outman. Giving Casas more than 2 wks

Paul Sporer: Oh shit, Buxton down after a collision with Sosa

Paul Sporer: Walked off under his own power, hopefully it’s all good

Reid: Is Brandon Lowe going to hit 39 homers again?  Or is he just having a hot start?

Paul Sporer: A healthy Lowe is an absolute G. He could definitely chase down another 35+ HR season

B’ryce Szymbobski: Franchy Cordero is dropping the hammer! I want to believe. Tell me he’s gonna be the lefty reincarnation of Joey Bats?

Paul Sporer: Franchy week continues!!! Scooped him bc of the week of righties. Not getting over my skis on trusting him any more than a week at a time, but love watching him succeed vR

Vince: Not sure how your chat works! Haven’t been able to get ? answered for over hour? Just asking!

Paul Sporer: Answered a Q about Gunnar earlier so tend to move on from ones that are virtually the same, especially when it’s the vague “thoughts on” which doesn’t give me much

Vince: Hi! Thoughts on Gunnar Henderson, who was one of my biggest draft targets — .129 BA … 16/9 K/BB and seems to be in platoon vs LHP. Should I be waiver-wire-hunting (Paredes, Anderson)?

Paul Sporer: You can go for Paredes or Anderson to supplement things, but if you’re already dropping Gunnar after 9 gms, you probably shouldn’t have drafted him that early. It’s just faaaar too small of a sample

CAL: Is there any hope at all for Fujinami?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, he’ll have some good starts here & there, but he’s rockin 30-grade command

Kyle: Trevor Rogers worth holding on to see if he can figure things out? I drafted him last year and ended up holding too long. Now I feel like I bought into a good spring and will be burned again

Paul Sporer: I’m holding for now, but a muuuch shorter leash. 2 starts against one of the best teams in the game is a tough opening draw. Check back in around the 5-6 start range

Farhandrew Zaidman: Best baseball acronym: TOOTBLAN, FARTSLAM, or NOBLETIGER?

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL what do the latter 2 mean? I know TOOTBLAN

Sean: With Conforto regularly batting 2nd, he is a top 30 OF? i.e. 12 team must roster?

Paul Sporer: He’s looking a lot more like 2017-20 Conforto early on aka health Conforto. Not sure it’s Top 30 w/that AVG, but he should be rostered in a 12-teamer. Again, it might be a situation where he doesn’t fit your team despite needing to be on a team

Bart: What is TOOTBLAN?

Paul Sporer: Throw Out On The Bases Like a Nincompoop

Farhandrew Zaidman: FARTSLAM – Fielder allows runner to score like a moron.
NOBLETIGER – No outs bases loaded ending (with) team-incapable (of) getting easy run

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL fantastic

Paul Sporer: We’re gonna end it on that note! Sorry if I didn’t get to your Q, y’all were pumping the queue full. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask your questions there. Have a good one, y’all!