Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 10th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Welcome, everyone!

Matt: Jackson Holliday goes straight into my team, right? Do I bench Bogaerts or Andres Giminez for him?

Paul Sporer: Gimenez

Frank: I’m in a 12 team mixed that uses OPS instead of BA. It’s a 1 catcher league. I have Realmuto as my C and I have Garver stashed on my bench as “insurance”. Would I be better off dropping Garver and using that roster spot for something else?

Paul Sporer: Yes, in a 1 C league with a premium C like JTR, you gotta use that spot elsewhere

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Who’s got the better offensive profile rest of season, Turner Ward or JD Martinez?

Paul Sporer: If Taylor Ward can stay healthy, I really think he can be better than JD

Bidding War: Have you heard about this kid Jackson Holliday? FAAB% in AL Only OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Gotta be REALLY high. If you can do $0 bids, I’d go near the max, if not I’d be a bit more careful. As valuable as he can be, it’d be hard not to be able to make ANY more moves the rest of the year

Chuck: Severino has been low-key fantastic. Do we dare start him @ATL tomorrow in a H2H?

Paul Sporer: I’m probably gonna avoid that

Bob: What do you expect for Michael Busch?

Paul Sporer: Power production, modest AVG

San-oh?: Miguel Sano has been hitting the ball hard. So what? More impressive: His Stuff+ is 114! Angels have a new Ohtani!!

Paul Sporer: He was chucking it in there!!!

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Are we scared about Vinnie P or Yandy yet?

Paul Sporer: No, it’s been like 10 gms max

Mugghead: What’s your take on Bednar and is it worth rostering Chapman for anything beyond the short-term? Thank you.

Paul Sporer: I don’t mind a Chapman stash, but Bednar is gonna get a chance to work through this

Spore Me The Details: 5×5 H2H Cats league 12-team. It certainly looks like Kyle Harrison is all fastball (which is an elite fastball) and still absolutely nothing else. I don’t view him as worth keeping. I need saves. Drop for McArthur on KC? He’s my weakest link with H. Brown/T. Wells/G. Crochet/J. Jones manning the back end of the rotation

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m OK w/that. It’s weird bc Harrison’s biggest issue coming up was BB, but he’s managed them at the major league level. Problem is, it’s come at the expense of his swing-and-miss w/a meager 9% SwStr. I’m OK making the move for MacArthur

Pete: Hi Paul, do you think that Heston Kyerstad finds his way to everyday playing time this season? He’s the only Baltimore rookie left who is already on the 40 man roster.

Paul Sporer: Huuuge Kjerstad fan, I’ll be all over him when something opens up… no room at the inn right now

WachaWachaWacha?: You prefer Detmers or Wacha in a standard 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: Always been a big Wacha fan, but in a 12, I’m shooting for the bigger upside and that’s Detmers for me

MagicOriole: JACKSON HOLLIDAY!!!

Paul Sporer: So excited!!

Harry: What does Kirby need to do to break out of this funk?

Paul Sporer: Not entirely sure, haven’t deep-dove his struggles, but I’m not moving off him at all rn

Wyatt Langford: Where are the XBHs?!

Paul Sporer: 11 gms… breathe

Paul Sporer: I know it’s boring and possibly even frustrating, but the answer to so much at this juncture is that it’s too early to tell. There just isn’t much that is actionable in the first few weeks of the season

Nice Specs: Save Spec’ing: Steven Wilson or Shelby Miller? Also curious about some of the Red Sox arms popping in the Stuff+ model.

Paul Sporer: Love Miller and spec’d him in multiple DCs, but Foley looks amazing that said I might still just get Miller for the occasional SV and some sneaky high leverage Ws

JL: Are we cutting ties with Varsho in 12 team 5OF leagues? H2H cat with avg/obp/slg. Taveras, BMarsh, Fraley, Olivares available on the wire. Should I stream based on wkly matchups?

Paul Sporer: I’d personally see it through with Varsho, but that talent cluster is similar enough that you can shift around. The danger is you end up chasing your tail, though, where you’re always buying the hot hand on his downswing and never actually get the hot stats. Taveras is probably my fave of that group (Fraley actually is, but platoon players in 12s are tough) but it’s not like he’s cooking, either

Guest: Thanks for chatting!  Any legitimate concerns about JRod’s early slump?

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming! None. I don’t even start considering studs to be struggling until at least a month in bc the thing is, it’s just not actionable anyway. Even if I had a smidge of concern about J-Rod, I’m certainly nowhere near cutting or even benching him.

Paul Sporer: I wrote about this in today’s Daily SP Chart https://i.imgur.com/ZJnDrfp.png

Boof: So far I’ve lost Strider, Robert, Eury (3 of my 8 keepers). Great start the season! (upside down smiley emoji)

Paul Sporer: Oof, that’s brutal! I lost Cole, Eury, Devin Williams, TJ Friedl in Tout Wars draft & hold.. pain

Blow Jays: Went big on Blue Jays bats (Vladito, Kirk, Varsho) and all 3 are scuuuuffling. Nothing I can do but ride it, right?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, just gotta ride it out for a few more weeks (and even longer on Vlad Jr.)

Test Drive: Austin Martin starting ​3​rd straight with Kepler down. Surely he can take the starting gig from Manny Margot, right? Should I pick him up for Butler in AL Only OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Yeah AL Only is about the only format I’d be considering Martin right now

Mom’s Arrighetti: Is the Seattle rotation washed? Big regrets right now on Kirby and Castillo, even if they are the last two SPs in the league.

Paul Sporer: Breathe!

The Fall of BeanLord: We out on T. McKenzie? His velocity and walks issues look bad. I scooped boring Wacha for him before all the pitchers in my league dried up (I lost Beiber as my SP3)

Paul Sporer: I’d have probably tried to hold McKenzie to see if he can work through it, but I like the Wacha scoop, just would’ve preferred a lesser cut. But yeah, T-Mc looks rough so far and it’s hard not to have some concerns quickly bc of his injury history

Bob: What do you expect for Paul Skenes once he’s up?

Paul Sporer: An all formats pickup upon arrival and then we go from there after we see how he does

Trade: How do you feel about Taylor Ward for Maikel Garcia?

Paul Sporer: No issues w/it on either end, tbh

Greg: How do you we feel about K.Crawford ROS? I lost Strider but still have Nola, Bobby Miller, and Skubal holding down my staff with Rodon sitting in my 4th slot. 10 team H2H

Paul Sporer: Really dig Kutter. Nola/Miller/Skubal/Rodon/Kutter is a viable top 5 (not listed in their order of quality there, but I don’t mind the group)

Victor: What do you think of Conforto’s hot start?

Paul Sporer: It’s great to see!! I think his issues have all been health-related more than skill so I think he can remain a force if his body cooperates

Guest: I can’t say I’m enamored with my OF options of Marsh, Yoshida, and KCarpenter; someone in my league (12 team 5×5) recently gave up on Outman.  Is he a better option?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Outman to Marsh, yeah

Dang: Bobby Miller is struggling again today.  Have you heard anything like possible underlying injury, tipping pitches…?

Fresh Basil: I need to stop watching Bobby Miller pitch.  Gonhg back to last season anytime I do he blows up.

Paul Sporer: Turns out it’s just Fresh Basil watching him!

Pitcher q’s: are you losing faith in Bobby miller?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m not. It hasn’t been gamechanging but nothing actionable.

Guest: Think we might see Yates as the next man up for closer in Texas instead of Robertson?

Paul Sporer: No I think it’s D-Rob’s shot first if Leclerc flops. Yates is a deeep spec if you’re desperate and have tons of reserves

Fresh Basil: David Fry or Darnaud?

Paul Sporer: I really want to be in on Fry, but the PT just isn’t there right now so I think it’s gotta be TdA. If Fry starts to get 3-4x a week, then I’m in.

Baseball!: Any insight on Spencer Arrighetti… 50% chance of throwing a no-no at least?

Paul Sporer: 50% in that he does or he doesn’t, lol. I like Arrighetti but would only pick up and reserve at this juncture so we can see something

Broken Bat: 4×4, Nootbaar over Bleday? And is Kerkering coming off IL to close?

Paul Sporer: I want Noot over JJ, just a muuuch better team context. I don’t think he’d jump right into the role, no

Woof: Too soon to call Gavin Lux washed?

Paul Sporer: Yes, but was probably drafted late enough in shallower leagues to possibly be cut. I’m a Lux fan and so I’m holding in my 15-teamers, but it’s been underwhelming so far

Ragingrandle: Can you tell me everything is going to be ok with Luis Castillo? Thanks. Just essentially his normal cold weather struggles right? I kinda just want to sell all sp right now

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m not worried, unless we come to find out he’s hurt, I think he will be just fine

TOMatoes: thank you for pumping the brakes on all the early over reaction….BUT…pitching injuries got you rethinking draft strategy / player valuation moving forward? waiting on SP in your main isn’t looking too bad right now…

Paul Sporer: It’s a risk-reward proposition, though, bc while the injuries can really hurt, the upside of landing on one of the studs who does stay healthy is SOOO rich. So I don’t think will completely take me off early SPs. Pitching is just inherently risky. Weirdly, these injuries further my resolve to backup studs with another gem or two so in the leagues I do take an early SP, I won’t just leave him on an island until the middle rounds bc then losing him will hurt even more. So with my 2 Mains, I went Burnes/B Miller in 1 and then the later group in the other with Bibee/Darvish/Kutter/Imanaga

Paul Sporer: I usually have a premium closer too (Hader in 1, Diaz in the other), too, which I consider part of backing up my premium pitching bc they bring more than just SVs w/premium ratios & Ks

CK C2: As a Tigers fan, curious if you think Carson Kelly keeps getting all this PT. Him or non-catching catcher David Fry?

Paul Sporer: I think they keep running the Rogers/Kelly split so I think Kelly’s PT gives him the edge over Fry

Michael: What are your thoughts on Colton Cowser? Seems like he is earning his playing time. Maybe the Orioles are shifting to just playing their best guys and call up more of the AA guys too.

Paul Sporer: Huuuge fan, really think he can be an impact guy and should be rostered pretty much everywhere

Dairon Blanco: Is there any chance I become a regular starter? Five steals in two ABs is nuts.

Paul Sporer: Probably not w/out multiple injuries. He’s their new Jarrod Dyson

Better Call Paul: Gausman or Castillo ROS?

Paul Sporer: Castillo

wrc cola: Nolan Arenado’s swings look horrible and no homers since August. is it time to panic or do I give him the patient long leash?

Paul Sporer: Yes, you gotta be more patient for sure

The Cronies: Buying Civale’s k upgrade? Normally give guys a boost once they join TBR but not sure when coming from CLE

Paul Sporer: Yeah I am, I always felt he could coax more Ks out of his stuff in Cleveland so I wasn’t too surprised when he spiked after the trade last year and he’s holding those gains early on

Guest: Drop Kwan or Langford for ward in points?

Paul Sporer: Kwan sure, no shot I’m dropping Langford right now

Bob: How do you feel about comparing India, Merrill, Keith, and Grissom ROS??

Paul Sporer: It’s a similar group of players. I’d lean toward India and Merrill the most right now.

cuadrangular: re: all the questions about “worried about Julio/Bobby Miller/Vlad?” – I really wish I played in leagues with these people

Paul Sporer: In fairness, they didn’t say they’re cutting them

John W: Hi Paul, thanks again for doing these chats. How are we feeling about Parker Meadows. He’s getting his walks, but will your Tigers be patient enough with him so hopefully the hits start falling?

Paul Sporer: I think they’ll give him plenty of time to figure it out a bit

Orange: Anyone playing poorly these first couple weeks that significantly changes your view on their season? You  said to wait on one of the better examples, Arenado, but wondering if there’s anyone you’d be selling at whatever price you can get rn

Paul Sporer: No, we’re still in the zone where 1-2 huge games completely flips their statline so I just can’t get too bent outta shape on it yet. I’m not moving off Arenado yet

Orange: How do you handle Hicks and Crochet knowing they likely won’t be SP’s the whole season based on the innings they’ve thrown in recent years? I’m inclined to sell high but want your opinion

Paul Sporer: Just can’t think that far ahead on pitching. I’m not selling high on them. Pitching isn’t plentiful enough to be selling off.

Paul Sporer: Doesn’t mean there are no sell high moves to be made, but I don’t really go seeking them out unless I’m REALLY flush

Ippei You Back: Marcus Semien in April-May 2022 —> 53 wRC+; 1 HR; .199/.266/.274. Marcus Semien in June 2022 —-> 136 wRC+; 7 HR; .287/.331/.519 …. April doesn’t matter for the best players lol

Paul Sporer: Bingo!!

thanks: always appreciate the chats

Paul Sporer: And I appreciate y’all coming out!

Cardboard Tube: Is Spencer Steer the real deal? Or should I sell high ASAP. Thinking I could get a top 5 SP for him

Paul Sporer: I’d be surprised if you can, but feel free to do so if you can!

Notorious R.B.I.: I gambled on Vlad Jr. as one of my top two “guys” on a few teams, how badly did I mess up, scale of 1-10, 10 being like start planning for 2025 dude

Paul Sporer: 1 right now, it’s waaaayyyy too early

Ray Shoesmith: Any optimism for Jose Soriano? Seems to have nasty stuff, just needs some health after 2 TJS.

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m very intrigued! Live armed righty. Just gonna watch this first start, but he’s on my Watchlist

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out! Thanks so much for coming out. I have a Boxscore Review show I do on Monday/Thursday/Friday at 8am CT on my Twitch channel and you can definitely come ask your questions there, too! — https://www.twitch.tv/sporer — Have a good one!