Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Baseball is baaaaaack!!!!

Mochi: Glad you’re not sick anymore, thought you quit doing chats but also remembered you’re a generational yapper and you’d never quit these things.

Should I be concerned with all the projection systems being much lower on Lux this year than I am?  Is it just a case of them not being prone to personal bias/excitement?  I feel like we should have gotten a nice boost on his numbers with GABP being involved.

Paul Sporer: Thank you, I’d never quit chats, I love ’em!! I just take some time from them in the winter before diving back in. As for Lux, yeah I think it’s just that doesn’t have a lot of goodness to go off of right now so the projections aren’t going to pop. He really started trusting his knee late last season and we saw improvements. I think a fully healthy Lux can be a great piece for Cincy, I’m fully in to re-buy this year after last yr’s disappointment

K2: Sean Manaea – what are you thinking for him over these next couple of years? Seems like maybe he benefitted from a low BABIP last year that shouldn’t be counted on? Or should it?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he was very much in a groove last yr w/the new slingy delivery and I hope he can recapture that magic again this year. His price point in late-100s gives some buffer if he doesn’t fully repeat last yr’s numbers so I don’t mind him at ADP

Mets Fans: What do you think the CF will be for the opening day of the New York Mets, Jose Siri or Luisangel Acuña? or which other one do you think might be your favorite CF?

Paul Sporer: Is Acuña taking reps in CF? I’d seen news about him getting some 3B reps, but not CF. I think it’ll be Siri, but Siri’s bat is remarkably flawed so I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t have a stranglehold on the role

Zach “not Neto”: Has the hate for Zach Neto gone too far (ADP has dropped from 60 to 180)? If he’s back close to opening day as he said today, isn’t he a legit top 100 pick?

Paul Sporer: I know the latest tidbit was that he got good news on the shoulder, but shoulder can be pretty scary for power so I understand the caution. That said, it’s not a terrible gamble in 170-180 range and the price will rise if the good news continues during Spring Training. So if you’re a Neto guy, it makes some sense to get shares now

RAGBRAI: How do you see Lux’s PT in Cincy?  Awfully crowded there.

Paul Sporer: In fairness we did think that last yr, too, and then Nick Martini was starting a bunch early on, lol. I think he should at least be a strong side platoon bat and at his price, I wouldn’t mind if he only started v righties

Chip: In 12-team mocks, I’m seeing the room waiting on SPs. Even Skenes and Skubal going late 2nd round. Waiting has always been my strategy, but I’m thinking of zagging and picking SPs in rounds 2 and 3. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I’m not against grabbing either of Sk-boys early on. They’re incredible. I think they will be firm first rounders in the NFBC by March, but not all leagues value SPs the same so if you’re seeing an opportunity pivot and get ’em at a good price, I say jump! Early SPs have always been fine by me!

Doctor Zoidberg, M.D.: The last few years I feel like I’ve been really good at finding pitching in my 8-team H2H league, but grabbing FA hitters is more hit or miss for some reason. Considering the depth and where my skills lie, would I be crazy to set my auction split at like 80/20 hit vs pitch or is that way too far?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think that’d be a problem. Obviously the waiver wire is going to be rich in a shallower league like that, but that means only the cream of the crop is worth hanging onto so super-focusing on getting the core stud bats for your foundation and playing the waiver game for pitching makes sense to me

Mild Concern: hi Paul, do you think Strider and McClanahan stand a good chance of resuming their prior career arcs? Does one stand a better chance (ie TJ vs brace surgery)? Thank you.

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t be able to speak too much on the nuances of brace v. old school TJ, but I have confidence & excitement in both SPs continuing to be great. For fantasy this year, I’m more in on Shane McClanahan as he got his TJ all the way back in August 2023 so he’s had an extended recovery period and the Tampa Bay GM said during the winter mtgs that they’re looking at 150-ish innings for him this year

Ben: Who are a few back-of-fantasy rotation options you’re targeting most heavily right now, based on current ADP? Thinking post-SP60

Paul Sporer: Here’s a few from my Gold Digging series that looked past pick-300 — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/gold-digging-building-a-team-after-pick-…

and a few others I like in that range are: Reese Olson, Drew Rasmussen, Kumar Rocker, and Frankie Montas

Guest: No love from you or Eno for Kris Bubic in your pitcher rankings? Am I wrong to be high on him? Seemed to be breaking out, got hurt and had surgery, but pitched well in bullpen last year and seems to have a rotation spot now. KC has done well with pitchers lately….i get there’s IP concern, but seems like a good risk to take?

Paul Sporer: I will be adding him in for sure, not entirely sure why he wasn’t originally included as I can’t remember back to the time when I was first composing the list. My guess is he wasn’t listed in KC’s depth chart yet and I just forgot him. He looked really sharp out of the bullpen last year and should have a real shot at earning a rotation spot, especially with Singer gone. Good call out, thanks!

Paul Sporer: And to your last question, I have no issues w/the risk given him price being well after pick-400!

PJ: Thoughts on Casey Mize with the Cobb setback? Is this his last chance to show out or get shipped out?

Paul Sporer: Maybe not shipped out, but more of a bullpen piece if he can’t really show something as a starter. I’m still pulling for him, but it is remarkably difficult to succeed with a sub-20% K rate in today’s game so we gotta see some more swing-and-miss from the former #1 pick. I’ll be keeping a close eye on him this ST.

jss: Can Tork some how get back to a 30 hr player?

Paul Sporer: Speaking of disappointing #1 overall Tigers…. can he get back? Yes, it’s possible, but the likelihood isn’t super high right now. In fact, he’s on the outside looking in right now after they Gleyber Torres acquisition moved Colt Keith to 1B and Tork to the bench/AAA. Now he’s still just 25 yrs old and we’re not that far removed from the 31-HR barrage so I’m reluctant to simply bury him, but until we start seeing him strike the ball better and more consistently, he will be a fantasy afterthought. Much like Mize, I will be watching closely in spring, hoping to see some signs of improvement

ayeff: Hey Paul, if you ever had a FB meetup in ATX I think that would be neat. Glad you’re back on your feet, whatever’s going around is a real (redacted). This is my version of a DM since you’re not really on socials lol

Paul Sporer: It’d be really cool to put something together out at Dell Diamond this year. It’s a great stadium to watch a game and we’ve got a lot of great fantasy baseball folks here in the greater Austin area. I can talk with a few other guys and see if we could put something together!

Logan: Do you typically find that the inherent riskiness/volatility with pitchers makes you more risk-averse (i.e. drafting more stable, “know what you’re getting” types) or less risk-averse (i.e. taking upside swings on pitchers) than for position players?

Paul Sporer: I like my Webb/Framber types who are as close to workhorse locks as you can get, but I’ve been embracing the shoot-the-moon upside arms more and more lately (think Crochet, deGrom this yr) as the simple fact is that ALL pitchers are remarkably risky bc safe health is a myth. Sure, someone like deGrom carries more injury risk at his age w/the pile of injuries he’s collected, but no pitcher is truly safe from a health standpoint.. if you’re pitching, you’re at severe risk of injury.

So gimme the guys with the most talent and I’ll let the injury chips fall where they may. Now that doesn’t mean I’m putting together a staff of 9 TJ returners this yr or anything and like I said, I like some of my “boring” stalwarts, but overall I’ll take more risks at the draft table and work through it during the season on waivers as the pitching turnover on the wire always seems much higher than hitting.

James M: Is RP a total wasteland?  This year there seems to be a dearth of Rp/Sp options as well.  Any late fliers you like?

Paul Sporer: Yeah as more and more teams move away from a true A-guy as their closer, it’s rough out there once you get past the first handful. I’m a “pay for saves” guy, though I will acknowledge a big part of that is the league types I play. They have overall components meaning I’m not just in my 15 team league, but also in a mega 700-something person league against everyone in the pool and you can’t truly compete in the upper end w/out having every category and I just hate playing the SVs chase in season so I’d rather spend the draft capital on them than the FAAB capital. Doesn’t mean I never have to spec for guys bc sometimes my ace closer pops, but by and large, the top tiers are a steady investment and it has allowed me to allocate more of my FAAB funds to hitting and starting pitching

Yandy: Welcome back!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much!! Great to be back!!

RAGBRAI: MLB roster predictions has Berti listed as starting second baseman. He seems more of a good UT than an everyday starter. Is he really the best option for the Cubs?

Paul Sporer: I think that’s just bc Nico Hoerner is still working back from injury, but he shouldn’t miss too much time (if any at all) so they’d probably just fill in for a week or two with the likes of Berti or Vidal Brujan or maybe even Ryne Sandberg 😏

tumtum: Kenley just sniped my Joyce fairs, is this a box up and send to the storage facility for Joyce until next season?

Paul Sporer: Well Kenley is 37 yrs old so they might not push him too much on back-to-backs and of course he is more susceptible to break down at his elevated age so I could still see Joyce getting some SVs here and there. Unfortunately LAA isn’t good enough to really speculate on him for those SVs, though, especially bc he doesn’t really bring the big time strikeouts when he’s not logging SVs.

tumtum: Roman Anthony’s Zone-Swing rate in AAA was below even league standard minimums. How much needs to be seen before Anthony is locked as a regular for the Sox?

Paul Sporer: I was just writing him up the other day for my upcoming redraft prospects piece and I’d be surprised if he didn’t need some more seasoning at Triple-A to work on exactly that. Duran-Rafaela-Abreu have a decent handle on the OF spots and while someone like Rafaela has his own issues at the dish, I’d still be surprised if Anthony overtook him this spring

JEF: i feel like the prospect crowd is describing Jasson Dominguez as more above average regular now – is the superstar ceiling still in there? It feels like miraculously, the PT opportunity is there for him in the Bronx this year. (Fantasy me is pulling for him, but real O’s fan me is not!)

Paul Sporer: Despite having been in our consciousness for what seems like a decade, he is still just going into his age-22 season so I think the ceiling is still remarkably high, especially for fantasy purposes w/his power-speed profile. Not all superstars show themselves immediately so even if we only saw a good-not-great season this year, we probably need at least 2-3 full seasons in the majors before really seeing what Dominguez can be!

Scott: Hey Paul! I played fantasy baseball for a number of years, but took last season off. I’m getting back in this year but feel very behind. What are the most important trends to be aware of as I prep for the draft? Thanks so much!

Paul Sporer: As mentioned earlier, the closing landscape is rough. There are very few guys who are the true A-guys in their bullpen so you’ll be fighting for scraps if you don’t lock in a stud relatively early in a lot of leagues. Pitching volume is down as well, so don’t be irked by someone who might only go 130ish innings in a season. With volumes down everywhere, you can put up a top season with a lighter workload these days. And of course the new SB rules have definitely worked in bringing more into the mix, but this doesn’t mean you should necessarily wait on them because now you need more to compete since they’re more plentiful, so be mindful of your SB totals as you’re going through the draft building your foundation

Joseph: As a fantasy baseball player looking to take a step toward hardcore fantasy leagues (auction, roto style, paid entry leagues, etc) where can I look to join some? I’m the only one out of my friends that plays, and there seems to be limited resources online to find a good honorable league! Help a brother out!

Paul Sporer: Mike Podhorzer just recently posted his excellent classified ads post where you can look for a league — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/looking-to-fill-your-league-or-join-a-le… and of course I’d also recommend entering the NFBC world. It’s a very competitive landscape with all sorts of options to dig into. https://nfc.shgn.com/high-stakes-fantasy-baseball — the Main Event is the cream of the crop but you don’t have to start there as it is a big price point. There’s something for everyone though, so check it out!

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, I gotta get going as Justin and I are recording the pod today (we couldn’t get together yesterday so apologies if you were looking for the new ep on Monday). Great to be back chatting and I’ll see y’all next week!