Paul Sporer’s 2025 Bold Predictions

It’s Bold Predictions time!! Check out the rest of the staff’s predictions here. I’m trying to have some spice here while also having a real path to coming to fruition. I know whenever we do these later in draft season there are inevitably some folks who bummed that it comes out when draft season is mostly done, but I promise you these are incorporating players I’ve already discussed at length this offseason so if you’ve been reading my work or listening to the pod, you’re aware of my affinity for these guys. Without further ado…

Seiya Suzuki is a Top 10 OF

Honestly, this is a playing time prediction as the skills are already there for Suzuki. He has been a .284 AVG/21 HR/11 SB guy the last two seasons with 583 and 585 plate appearances, respectively. This year, he pushes 650+ with his first fully healthy season and delivers a .290/30/15 season with 95+ R and RBI.

Dylan Crews Goes 20 HR/40 SB

My pick for NL Rookie of the Year is poised for his first full season. I think he can eventually reach upper-20s/low-30s with his HR output, but I see something in the mid-teens to get him started. Meanwhile, he has dynamic speed on the top SB team from last year which should translate in a boatload of SBs. Honestly, it’s not that hard to envision a year where he goes 50-burger on the bases, but I’ll happily stick with my 20/40 prediction which easily exceeds the 15/25 figures that the projections coalesced around.

Hunter Greene Finishes SP60 or Worse

I’m sorry, I just don’t see last year as a springboard into acehood for Greene. He has electric stuff that we’ve been waiting on for a little while so when he drops a 2.75 ERA/1.02 WHIP in 150 IP, I understand why people think it’s go time and he’s ready to deliver several years around that level as a perennial Cy Young candidate, but I’m not there yet. There weren’t tangible changes in his approach to yield those great numbers, but rather his volatility metrics all working in his favor. And make no mistake, he has some say over his 7% HR/FB, 81% LOB, and .237 BABIP rates all clicking for him, but I don’t think any of them are particularly repeatable barring substantive changes in his game.

With the homers returning, I think he finishes at SP60 or worse. For reference, Grayson Rodriguez was SP60 on the Auction Calculator last year with a 3.86 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 27% K, and 13 Ws in 117 IP. Nick Pivetta is an interesting statistical comp who slotted at SP64 and his season is more in line what we could see from Greene this year (except the Ws, I think Greene can beat 6): 4.14 ERA/1.13 WHIP, 29% K, and 6 Ws in 146 IP.

Ryan Pepiot Finishes SP20 or Better

I’ve got a little Pepiot in my stepio today what with it being Opening Day and all! Pep was right around that mark I’m projecting for Greene this year, finishing SP58 last year and I like him to build upon his year even acknowledging how tough Steinbrenner Field will be as a home park. He delivered a 3.60 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 26% K, and 8 Ws in 130 IP last season and added volume alone should help him improve his standing, but he will need some better rates to reach the heights of Top 20. Bailey Ober was 19th last year on the AC with a 3.98 ERA/1.00 WHIP, 27% K, and 12 Ws in 179 IP. If Pep can hang tough at his new home park, he can beat that ERA which will give him some wiggle room on that WHIP while the Ks and Ws are both very doable as I expect the Rays to entrust him with 30+ starts this year, health permitting, of course.

3 Tigers SPs Get Cy Young Votes

This is essentially gassing up two Tigers with Skubal, right? Obviously, I think Skubal will remain excellent and even if he doesn’t repeat as Cy Young, at least garner votes with another healthy season. That said, even with someone who some might deem a gimme, I’m still tabbing two others to get votes. I have four candidates mostly likely to cash this one for me: Jack Flaherty returning after a midseason trade last year, Reese Olson looking for his first full season after a pair of excellent shorter campaigns, former #1 overall pick Casey Mize hot off a wonderful spring hoping to finally breakthrough at age-28, and the upstart rookie Jackson Jobe who briefly debuted last year with the team before wrestling the 5th starter’s role from Kenta Maeda this spring. I think that’s the order I like them, as well.

Flaherty had Cy Young-viable stuff in his time with Detroit last year before the trade. He came back to earth with the Dodgers, but I like him to excel again back in Detroit. Maybe not to the 2.95 ERA/0.96 WHIP level of his Tigers run last year, but I’ll gladly take a low-3.00s ERA, low-1.00s WHIP, and plenty of strikeouts en route to some Cy Young consideration. Olson is similar to Suzuki where it’s more of a volume play than necessary skill improvement. He has a 3.75 ERA/1.15 WHIP combo in 216 MLB innings spread over the last two seasons. I don’t think he’ll be given enough leash to run 216 IP this season, but 175+ is definitely in play with those ratios and I actually see some strikeout upside for the 25-year-old righty. He has a 23% career mark that could easily push up a couple points into the mid-20s given the stuff he’s shown over his career.

Mize has battled injuries and ineffectiveness since being drafted 1st overall back in 2018. He has displayed a solid 7% BB rate during his 291 MLB innings, but little else to get a excited about as his 18% K rate is well below the 23% league average during that time. The spring, his velo is up and his splitter is back on track resulting in a 33% K rate and 16% swinging strike rate in 19 IP. He doesn’t have to strike out a third of his batters to be good, but if he can run a mid-20s mark while keeping his walks in line the career mark, there’s 160+ innings a 3.30-3.50 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP. Jobe is the wildcard. The rookie might not get the volume for top tier Cy Young consideration, but if he shows out for 140+ innings, he can definitely garner some down ballot consideration.

Gavin Williams Finishes SP25 or Better

I was among the cohort of fantasy analysts gassing Williams up this spring, driving his price up with each passing podcast or article, too. Of course, Williams didn’t need us dweebs to get attention as his spring numbers spoke volumes: 38% K, 6% BB, and 19% SwStr rates led to a 2.08 ERA/0.98 WHIP combo in 17 IP. Cleveland hopes to get the third year righty back on track after a rough sophomore campaign and with a clean bill of health, I see the vision. I expect Cleveland to let him pile up innings to take pressure off that bullpen that got overworked a bit last year so while they won’t tax Williams, I don’t think an ERA-qualifying season (at least 162 IP) is a stretch.

Gavin Lux Goes 20 HR/20 SB

Lux leaves the amazing Dodgers lineup but joins the best park this side of Coors Field for half his games. Now a full year removed from his ACL injury, I can’t wait to see what my long-time favorite can do in Cincy. He will fulfill a super-utility kind of role with expectations that he will get time in the outfield as well as 3B and 2B. He’s got pop and speed so with a full slate of playing time, I like Lux for a 20/20 campaign. If new manager Terry Francona lets the runnin’ Reds keep up their base stealing ways (1st in MLB since 2022 with 455), then I wouldn’t be surprised to see 30+ from Lux.

Isaac Paredes Hits 40 HRs

This one is straightforward: Paredes is gonna eat those Crawford Boxes for lunch at Daikin Park. Paredes leads the league in Pull rate since 2022 with a 54% mark, 1 point clear of new teammate Jose Altuve, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drive it higher at home when he sees those Crawford Boxes sitting just 315 feet away. He has a 30-homer season under his belt already and juuust about 30 HRs/650 PA the last three years (29 to be exact) so I like his new home environment and a second straight season of 600+ PA to bring home this 40-homer prediction.

Nathaniel Lowe Steals 20 Bases

Another super straightforward one. The Nats love running so much they were able to get Jesse Winker to rip off a 14-for-18 mark in 101 games after 3 in his previous 610 games. If they can get that kind of performance out of Winker, just putting Lowe down for double digits felt too light so I’m pushing it to 20. He has an 8-for-8 under his belt back in 2021 and while he’s just 5-for-7 since, his new team will turn that 8-for-8 version of Lowe loose for a sneaky 20 pack.

Shane Smith Leads CWS in Saves

This should pass the sniff test just by virtue of the fact that Smith is in the rotation to start the season, a move I definitely co-sign by the White Sox. They should see if their Rule 5 pick from Milwaukee has what it takes to start consistently as that’d be an amazing find. And while I did take a shot on him as a starter in multiple fantasy leagues, I won’t be surprised if he doesn’t quite have the control to run 5+ innings consistently causing the White Sox push him to the pen.

It doesn’t even have to be underperformance that takes him from starter to reliever, they might just want to protect the workload of their 25-year-old righty so moving him to the pen but keeping him in leveraged situations would be great. I’m not really worried about Mike Clevinger setting the bar too high on SVs count, either. If he looks good at all, they should try to trade him immediately so Smith might only need a low double-digit total to cash this one. In essence, I’m just looking for a unique way to say I like Smith! I’d love to see him remain a viable starter all year, but I think the hybrid the starter-closer set up would be a great way to deploy him!