Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – 5/12/16

Lord Varys: Is this thing on?

Paul Sporer: Yes!

DB: Who do you like more in dynasty? Mazara or Corey Seager?

Paul Sporer: It’s still Seager, but these are both A-level prospects so the margin is thin

Paul Sporer: I’ve been enjoying Views, but it’s not a classic. It has gotten back on Thank Me Later which is definitely still fire.

dbet: Eickhoff or Bauer? Shooting for upside in redraft.

Paul Sporer: Bauer for upside

JohnnyFive: Paul! Love your work. I’d love to hear YOUR thoughts on Greinke. Is it just “he’ll be fine” or is there reason to worry? Thoughts on trading him for an also underperforming J. Upton in an OBP league?

Paul Sporer: He was a guy I didn’t love coming into the season so I’m not super encouraged about going out and buying. I don’t think he’s this bad, but I saw him as more #2 than fantasy ace. I’m OK with the challenge trade of struggling arm for struggling bat.

Ol Sea Capn: John Lamb – am I leading him to slaughter next week? at ClV and Sea at home.

Paul Sporer: I say start him. This was a guy Eno & I liked coming into the season but then I backed off some with the back injury. Now that’s he’s ostensibly healthy, I’ll be using him where I have him

rpo: How do you rank these ROS – Harvey, Lester, Quintana, Salazar, Hamels?

Paul Sporer: Still on Harvey so he’s tops. Then the other four are pretty close. Quintana has jumped up to be near those guys, but he’s still bringing up the rear: Lester, Salazar, Hamels, Q. Not any skills changes backing Q’s surge so while I’m a fan and he’s moved up, it’s not enough to be in that tier with those gys

Paul Sporer: guys*

Clay Davis: As a Berrios man, how do you feel about his upcoming starts?

Paul Sporer: Generally or against someone in particular? The stuff is electric. He’s definitely finding his footing, but I think he’ll perform in the summer

Tommy B: Why is eno worried about Kluber??

Paul Sporer: Bad fastball

Ol Sea Capn: Do you know where I can find a woodshed that I can take Pineda to?

Paul Sporer: LOL. I got lit up for suggesting to cut him in shallower mixers (10-12 tms)

Jackie Bradley Jr. : Eno says I strike out too much, what say you?

Paul Sporer: Listen, I’ve been a JBJ guy from the jump, but I recognize he’s not as good as his August last year and this 18-gm run. He looks like one of those super-streaky guys (bc everyone is streaky to a degree, but some are more so… see also: Davis, Khris). Ks are down this year, but SwStr% isn’t so he’ll probably be around 25%. He Ks too much to be a STAR, but he’s a v good player and PT is guaranteed by defense. Buy.

derek: just traded mazara and drury for sonny gray. What do you think?

Paul Sporer: That’s alright. I’m a Maz honk so I probably wouldn’t have, but that’s a real buy low. Sold two rookies (or near-rookies… unsure on Drury’s qualification) for a proven #2. If Gray is just in a funk and not hurt, you’ll feel good about that when he reels off 13 starts of a 2.50 ERA at some point

Dave: Eickoff’s last four starts have been pretty bad, Ks are down and not using the slider. You buying, selling or holding in 15 team mixers?

Paul Sporer: Still a major platoon split guy. And when I looked back AFTER the fact, I realized I shouldn’t have played him v. ATL even though it’s crappy ass ATL. They stacked lefties and he just hasn’t found a way to consistently get them out. He’s kinda like Matt Wisler in that respect. You can hold, but I certainly wouldn’t buy

Alex: Karns worth an add in 12-team mixed? Think increased velocity can help keep the ball in the yard?

Paul Sporer: Still struggling to keep the ball in the yard. I’d say he’s a sreamer at best bc of the Ks

RAP: Who do you like best out of these in a redraft- Smyly, Stroman, Gray and Tai Walker?

Paul Sporer: Walker

Aaron: I traded Taijuan Walker for Anthony Rendon in h2h points league. Did I do okay?

Paul Sporer: Yes you did. Big fan of both and you sold high to buy low. Rendon isn’t hurt as far as I know so he will get it together (IMO, at least)

Scott w: W matz up in the air, do mets ever give montero a shot or is verrett the guy?

Paul Sporer: Verrett seems to be their long man for these one-offs, but I’d like to see Montero get a shot. Has a much higher ceiling, but Verrett’s floor is probably appealing to them. Just get 5-6 strong and let the offense/bullpen try to win it

Pads: Loving the podcast, Paul. Thanks. Do I continue hanging on to DeScalfani or grab one of Duffey, Tillman, or Wright? And which one of those three?

Paul Sporer: I’d get Tillman over him. Maybe even the hot hand of Wright, but Tillman first

Paul Sporer: Problem is we just don’t know when the knuckler will go haywire so it’s VERY risky

Argo: Rank your concern, most to least: Pineda, Keuchel, Kluber, Price

Paul Sporer: I think you just did!

StroShow: Do you think Jake Lamb could outperform Longoria in an AVG league ROS?

Paul Sporer: Ya he definitely can. Longo has just been so bland lately and Lamb is on the rise.

Fred: Paul, who would you pick ROS in the battle of the injured Brandons? Morrow or McCarthy?

Paul Sporer: McCarthy, I guess

Roe Bott: Does Archer turn it around this season or do I try to flip him for someone with less upside who isn’t broken?

Paul Sporer: One step forward, two back, ya know? Jason said he couldn’t command shiz against yesterday and that’s been a common issue. I’d really wanna know what you can get, but I’m open to selling low and just regrouping with a new player and the waiver wire

Hipolito Pichardo: Legitimate reason to worry about Joey Bats?

Paul Sporer: Nope. 1:1 K:BB, still has 6 bombs. One hot streak from making us feel silly for ever even asking! Buy, buy, buy!

Paul Sporer: But sick name check with Pichardo, btw

Roe Bott: Should I drop Pineda or Yordano Ventura for any of the following?

Paul Sporer: I saw this question twice but neither had options

Paul Sporer: Btw, don’t ask your questions twice. Y’all are filling the queue and I’m getting to it as fast as I can. But if you ask multiple times, I’ll purposely NOT answer it

Alex: Would you slot Chen inside top 50 SP? Nothing sexy but 3.40 era, 1.2 whip has value. Reminds me of 2014/2015 Quintana

Paul Sporer: I had him top-40 coming into the season. Big Chen backer in MIA!

Hipolito Pichardo: How aggressively should I push to get Miggy and VMart in a batting AVG league?

Paul Sporer: Test that market, but I think Miggy will be fine and VMart is a stud as long as he stays upright (something we can’t guarantee, but it’ll be baked into the price)

Matt: Strasburg and Cervelli for Posey. Which side do you like. 14 team head to head with Avg and OPS as categories.

Paul Sporer: Prefer Posey, but that’s a good deal

dbet: They should totally introduce a salary cap mode to Diamond Dynasty like EA just did with MUT. I think it would bring fresh and interesting line up choices.

Paul Sporer: I think they’ve done a good job coming up with modes that entice different lineup choices, but I’d be open to more

Paul Sporer: OK, this happens every chat. There’s always 1-2 guys who get brought up allll chat despite me answering several questions about them.

Lord Varys: Sonny Gray is injured, but he or the A’s just haven’t accepted it yet, right?

Sonny Gray: Will I figure it out?

Paul Sporer: If he’s hurt, they’d shelve him so they don’t know it if he is in fact hurt. If healthy, it’s likely just a funk. But I have no clue if he’s actually hurt.

Paul Sporer: Also discussed here: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-343-the-kang-show/ Book closed on Sonny Gray. I think he’s an interesting buy-low, but there is definitely risk. He’s not a fantasy ace and I didn’t buy him this year bc top 20 was too expensive for his K%

Chad: Load up against Aaron Blair with Odubel, Franco and Blanco?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m cool w/those 3, espec. since they’re unlikely to be highly used

Paul Sporer: Speaking of DFS, here’s my 50-person, $2 game for today if you’re interested: https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/24279959

Paul Sporer: (not sponsored or anything, just a game I make daily)

20KS1GAME: Troy Tulo can’t be this bad…can he?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I don’t think he’s THIS bad. I’d actually entertain buying. Jason says naw: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-342-buying-low/

JimmyJack: Paul, in terms of likelihood of losing job to trade or demotion, how would you rank these folks? Papelbon, McGee, Jeffress, Vizcaino

Paul Sporer: Ranked by safety w/safest first: Pap, McGee, Viz, Jeff

Daniel : Havent heard you talk much about Lackey. He’s been good and projections really like him for the year. Any other thoughts.

Paul Sporer: This is about what I expected. Mid-3.00s. The K% spike is unexpected and backed by a SwStr jump so I like that a lot. Maybe it’s time to start giving new Cubs SPs a boost bc of Bosio. Plus, the Ws will flow like wine.

Michael : Assuming you had a full OF and IF, would you prefer to keep Panik or Pagan on the bench?

Paul Sporer: Panik

Barry: 5×5 NL only: would you try moving Jaime Garcia, Joe Ross or Aaron Nola? Any slumping pitchers worth targeting with any of them?

Paul Sporer: Sure, if you have needs. Garcia is a permanent injury risk just bc of his lengthy history and the other two are youngsters, which is always a volatile proposition.

Paul Sporer: You could try & buy low on Greinke or Waino if you believe (I wouldn’t personally, but I understand why some might)

Paul Sporer: Matt Harvey still has a 4.50 ERA, too. Maybe Garica + ___ get it’s done.

Paul: Need pitching: my papi and locain for his harvey matt caroen

Paul Sporer: is that Matt Cain? I need clarification, but I’m inclined to say the 2 hitters

CJ03: Thoughts on McCullers? His coach was saying he’s been throwing 92-97 in his rehab.

Paul Sporer: He’s a beast. My only concern coming into this year was an IP limit compared to his cost. He should’ve been cheaper considering he would likely fall short of even 170 IP and then the injury came through and his price still barely dropped. Honestly, if he stays healthy this year and pitches like we saw last year, I’ll be going nuts for him in ’17

Lord Varys: Are young catchers given enough rope to mature in MLB? Such an extreme dearth of talent at the position.

Paul Sporer: It depends. But honestly, it’s more about running the staff so if that’s not coming together, teams have to go to the veteran. Hitting is entirely secondary for Cs

Jonny: What should we do about Yordano Ventura RoS and dynasty? I heard it may be a new pitch that’s been leading to more walks but this is getting ridiculous. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: He is using the changeup a lot more, that’s for sure. I’m definitely worried. I thought we’d see more this year after that sharp finish last year

Puddin’: We The People request an article detailing what’s driving Altuve’s rise from above-average 2B to God of Gods

Paul Sporer: I’d contend that he’s always been faaar above average, but I get what you’re saying, especially re: the power. Right now, he’s just running REALLY hot w/the pop bc there aren’t more FBs and he’s not pulling it any more than normal. I believed the 15 HRs from last year, but with 9 banked, he should crush that. I’d still say it’s more 18-20 for the season as opposed to 25+

Paul: Need pitching bad, my ortiz/locain for matt carpenter/harvey/park? Obp slg h2h 12 teams

Paul Sporer: I like it

Clay Davis: Sorry, w/r/t Berrios he has the Tigers, Blue Jays then Royals coming up (assuming no weather postponements if I’m reading the schedule properly).

Paul Sporer: Those are tough, but neither TOR nor KC is playing like last year. In fact, all 3 are avg or below in runs/gm so I’d use him if the situation fits (deep lg where you don’t have plentiful options). In a 10-12 tm mixer, seems unnecessary to risk those offenses waking up

Paul K: I know you were high on Castellanos, but is now the time to sell? I’m worried about the lack of walks and high k rate.

Paul Sporer: Depends what you’re getting. Can you find someone who lets you really cash in? Even as a believer, I realize he’s running super-hot and has to come down off of this pace.

Lars: Sonny Gray is worth stashing while he figures all of this out… obviously, right?

JJ: Pts league, have Miggy at 1B and Beltre/Fielder @ Corner/UTIL, BHPark on bench all year… would you trade JZimm + Park for Sonny Gray or are you that far out on buying Gray low?

Paul Sporer: 😐

Jimmy: Do you prefer AL or NL SP (one doesn’t get PH for, another gets to face a worse league as well as pitchers)?

Paul Sporer: NL facing their counterparts is generally better. Plus SO many garbage tms in the NL this year really shifts it toward Senior Circuit

Alex: How sustainable is Jaime Garcia’s strikeout rate? Is there anything that has changed this year to lead to the increase in k/9?

Paul Sporer: SwStr is back up after down yr last yr. He’s just a really good pitcher who has battled so many health issues that it’s hard to use his previous work as a great gauge. If anything his previous K rates probably should’ve been higher. So while I can see him coming down to more 23-24%, I really like him.

Alex: Piscotty and Nicasio for JUpton and Hammel? 20 team keeper league – which side do you take?

Paul Sporer: Side B

canofcorn66: Any of these wire pitchers worth it for the long haul, or am I better off streaming? Bauer, Straily, Hellickson, Cashner, Trop, Chacin

Paul Sporer: None of them worth keeping right now, but almost all are viable stream options so just keeping doing that

Redwatcher: Which Reds pitcher finishes with most saves?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go easy and take Cingrani since he’s got it rn

Grumplestiltskin: If I’m digging around for a minor league second baseman, who’s my best bet? Moncada and hope he doesn’t switch? Dansby and hope he does? Barreto and hope he’s up before I die of old age?

Paul Sporer: It’s Moncada

Scott w: What do you do with Carlos rodon? 12 team with k9 as a cat…

Paul Sporer: That 0.3 IP/5 ER outing is still adding a full run to his ERA. There’s volatility with this kind of profile so I can understand wanting to bench him, but I’d at least hold on reserve. One troubling issue are the recent HRs.

Costen: My harvey and zobrist for his ortiz?

Paul Sporer: Too much

FP Santangello: Who would be your top minors stashes right now

Paul Sporer: Giolito and Glasnow

Steve: Yan Gomes or Miguel Montero ROS?

Paul Sporer: Montero once back

Brad: What kind of OF could a package of Jaime Garcia and Will Myers get in return?

Paul Sporer: Ask really high. Maybe not Stanton-esque, but second tier. Betts?

Paul Sporer: BTW, I actually have Betts first tier, but he was drafted 2nd tier this year

Hipolito Pichardo: Michael Feliz sporting a very impressive swstrk% for his Slider, and his K% is great too. Buying in an AL-only keeper?

Paul Sporer: In AL for sure. Impressive arm.

Smoo: What are your early thoughts on Cheslor? Maybe he gets PT when Moose comes back at DH?

Paul Sporer: Was a legit prospect, but I don’t think we’ll see all that much. Moose and Morales still gonna hold their spots once Moose is healthy

Aaron: Cesar Hernandez 2/6 on SBs this year. Starting MI in 14-team mixed roto (OBP). Hold and hope he starts running again, try and trade surplus CI, or dump-city for someone like an Aaron Hill? Love the podcast, gracias.

Paul Sporer: The one thing is they should continue to let him run bc why not? That OBP from last year has vanished and that’s mire concerning to me, so I’d be looking to move out if SBs weren’t a MAJOR need

Spinelli: So when will everyone admit they were wrong to write those avoid cespedes off-season articles?

Paul Sporer: Don’t hold your breath! I definitely had him too low at 23, but I wasn’t saying AVOID! I just liked other guys around him like Heyward (oops!!), PuIg (uhh!!), and Pence (which is fine, but Yo obv better).

Blah: What’s wrong with Kluber’s fastball? Velo, or movement? It is down 1 MPH from last year but it’s still early enough that it’ll prob rebound atleast 0.5MPH

Paul Sporer: Too straight, doesn’t command it well. FBs not only about velo.

Ol Sea Capn: Nate Karns seems to have changed his approach/mix with good results. How does Mrs. Sporer’s Fav Son rank him ROS?

Paul Sporer: LOL, my brother would object to that! I’m OK on him. Streamer in 10-14. Good Ks. Not special

John: Josh Harrison or Will Myers ROS in a standard roto leaugue

Paul Sporer: Myers

Baseballfan17: Gray and Tulo for Machado, crazy for either party?

Paul Sporer: Not sure the Mach guy does it, but it’s not an insulting offer IMO. That said, I’d say no as Mach guy

Smoo: Dae Ho Lee or Pearce a better AL-only pickup and by how much?

Paul Sporer: Leeee!!! I’m liking him so far

Wes vento: Saunders our jbj ros?

Paul Sporer: JBJ!

gary meadows: Is yordano a hold or drop in 10 teamers?

Paul Sporer: Drop

Troke: Is Chase Headley really this bad?

Paul Sporer: Guess it wasn’t Petco, huh?

Paul Sporer: (so yes, he is, IMO)

Paul Sporer: OK not THIIIISSSS bad, but he’s 90s wRC+ level at best

Smoo: Is Jose Ramirez a valuable everyday player or kinda lousy despite his young age

Paul Sporer: He’s alright. Not a first-division starter. Using more of the field to drive this triple slash surge which has eaten the power, but if he starts running then he can be fantasy viable in a deeper league

Michael : I have Victor Martinez and Lamb is on waivers, should I trade VM and pick up Lamb without missing much?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t cut VMart, no. Finagle something to get Lamb, but don’t cut VM for him

Smoo: Who’d you rather have in AL-only no innings cap… Givens or Jhoulys?

Paul Sporer: We said some nice things about Chacin yesterday: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-343-the-kang-show/ In AL only I’d take the shot on him

Guest: When will Jose Abreu heat up? Is he close?

Paul Sporer: Impossible to say but I’m definitely 0% worried

Wes vento: Archer franco for bryant?

Paul Sporer: Fair. Gimme Bryant in that equation, but I can envision plenty of Bryant owners saying yes

ByunghoSurfer: I just scooped Byung-ho Park off the waiver wire. Will frequent spamming of “I AM THE GREAT BYUNGHOLIO, I NEED TP FOR MY BYUNGHO” on our message board make other owners disinclined to trade with me in the future?

Paul Sporer: LOL I sure hope not. I legit LOL’d

Rich: VMart and Tomas for T. Walker a fair deal in 11 team roto redraft? Need SP

Paul Sporer: Definitely

Paul Sporer: Strong first offer. Should get it done if that team needs hitting and doesn’t have a Walker love affair like myself. And hell, I’d prob do that if I had hitting needs

Scott w: Last one… What would make you interested in the water-logged corpse that is Mike minor? Heard he’s doing his starting his rehab and hit 93mph. The royals staff is underwhelming, so he could get a shot… Love ya dad

Paul Sporer: Gotta be pretty deep lg for me to preemptively buy, but like an AL only would be worth a stash just in case. Used to be pretty solid.

Nelson: What do you make of Russel Martin? Will he be a top 10 C ROS?

Paul Sporer: Gotta be hurt, right? I know the neck has popped up on Rotowire/Rotoworld so I’m imagining injury. Might need a DL stint to get healthy and then can be top 10 from there

Brian: How many keepers are too many keepers in a 10 team keep forever league?

Paul Sporer: No set number. Depends what kinda lg y’all want. Draft day is still the best day of the year so I like not going too crazy. Since it’s keep forever, it’s always going to be the studs so maybe just say 3-5?

Patrick scuderi: Machado with ss is greater than Harper?

Paul Sporer: I still prefer Harper, but Machado is in the convo. Remember before the injury that many wanted it to be Harper v. Trout v. Machado and they were laughed it. Seems that sect of Manny backers was on to something!

JohnnyFive: Do you think that Dee Gordon comes back as a shadow of his former self? Do you think that we’ve seen the best of what he can offer?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think whatever he was taking MADE him who he was. I think he’ll be his slappy, speedy self

Roger Freed: Moss worth starting vs Weaver?

Paul Sporer: Brandon v. Jered. *I* am worth starting v. Weaver and I’m only hitting like .410 in softball

CozartGarfunkel: Will Cozart retain enough fantasy value to remain rostered in a 12 man league for the rest of the year, barring injury?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’ve changed my tune a bit on him. I think he can be right on the cusp. He’s crushing the ball right now so he’s a hold for now at the very least

Cam Carreon’s Carry-on Camera: Thoughts on Coghlan? His avg can’t be this bad, right? RIGHT??!!!

Paul Sporer: Ya, I’m always careful not use BABIP as a luck-o-meter, but .206 is really low, especially with a batted ball profile that is in line with career norms. He’ll get it going, IMO

Guest: Can Travis Shaw finish with 25 homers and 10 steals?

Paul Sporer: I think you mean will be, bc of course he CAN. But no, he won’t. That’d take 21 more bombs which be quite a bit. How about 18/8?

Ariel: Locain for hamels parra?

Paul Sporer: Strong deal for LoCain seller. Don’t deal drugs, though.

Troke: Very deep AL-only league with no bench. Moya or Kim?

Paul Sporer: Even knowing there’s a really low chance that Moya is ready to bust out, I’d still take that gamble bc the upside is a power beast in a solid lineup. Ks are way down which adds intrigue, too

Jack: Trade Gerrit Cole for E.E if you are last in hr and rbi

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m OK with that

Cam Carreon’s Carry-on Camera: As a Napoli owner, how hard should I be trying to sell right now? Kinda worry its a Derek Holland 2 weeks ago but for hitting situation

Paul Sporer: Well hitters can’t do Holland level damage in any one game or even any one week so you’re safe there. I liked a Napoli resurgence LAST YEAR, but as always, I was a year early. I’d hold

Paul Sporer: Was listening to Be last night. Such fire.

Blah: I’m worried about Posey? Have you seen his GB%/Pull% recently? Starting in September of 2015 both of those have been significantly higher are are contributing to a much lower BABIP than he is accustomed to. This trend has been going on for almost three months now.

Paul Sporer: I see what you’re saying, but I’m not too concerned right now. Still performing. It’s worth monitoring, but I’m hanging tight on Posey for sure

The Dream: Gausman and Steven Wright 10-team relevant now?

Paul Sporer: Yes for Gausman, but Wright is still SUPER fringy in 10-teamers. I’m cool riding the hot hand, but the problem with a knuckler is they’re prone to those 8 ER type outings that can erase ALL the good work so I’d still be super cautious

Ariel: Spurs or thunder?

Paul Sporer: hoopsgraphs.com!

Paul Sporer: but obv Thunder (KD GOAT!)

Paul Sporer: (not really GOAT… but he’s a Longhorn and my favorite player)

Cam Carreon’s Carry-on Camera: Was offered Vogt and Navarro for Martin and Gomes? (2 catcher league) Your thoughts?

Paul Sporer: interesting. Looks like your trade partner is going for the super buy low. I’d take it. Even if both rebound, I don’t see how it kills you

HappyFunBall: Which is the better SS platoon: Story/Semien or Story/Villar? I’m leaning Villar because it seems like a nice power/speed option that Semien just doesn’t have. Of course that means Villar has to keep the OBP up, so …. thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I think you’re reasoning works. Go with it!

Bobby: How high are you on Glasnow? Top 50? Top 40? Top40!?!

Paul Sporer: This year? I doubt he’s that good. It’s a very small chance. But since there is even a chance of it, he’s intriguing. But honestly I see ups and downs initially. He still struggles to repeat and consistently command his stuff. I forgot Jameson Taillon in that question about stashes so let me amend and included him

Derek: You a basketball fan at all? Thunder or the Spurs tonight??

Paul Sporer: Y’all changin handles now? Or 2 of you really wanted my hoops takes in the spans of minutes?

Gavin: Scherzer was ridiculous last night, but gave up 2 more HR’s and is on pace for 40+. His peripherals seem the same as always, so is this simply a long lasting bout of bad luck, or is there something I’m missing?

Paul Sporer: It’s definitely not bad luck. He leaves meatballs with some regularity. Bc he allows so few runners and has such devastating stuff, he can rise above it. But it’s a legit concern.

Paul Sporer: he let Jose Iglesias go yak on him!!

MrBelaire: Just dropped Rodon for Pomeranz in a 13 team roto with no bench spots. Good or bad idea?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK with it. I really like Pomy. Remember, he was once a huge prospect, too. Lefties just take longer so maybe Rodon isn’t ready until ’17 or even ’18. The reason I liked Rodon so much coming into the season is bc the CHANCE that he’s ready would yield huge returns. He’s showing a lot of the same issues from last year so I’m inclined to think he’s not quite ready for the leap and thus if you have someone you wanna scoop, you can move on. I’d still try to reserve him where I could, but I’m fully OK with this cut

HappyFunBall: JBJ or Domingo Santana?

Paul Sporer: JBJ, not too far apart, though

Ol Sea Capn: Also… love the podcast lately. Keep up the great work. Looking forward to Buy Low pitcher episode.

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! We’ll be doing that one on Sunday w/Jason and myself

BigTimeNW: Any insider word on these MLB suspensions for PEDs? I’m getting tired of waiting…if there are cheaters or suspected cheaters, I want to know. IMO this process needs to have a lot more clarity

Paul Sporer: Nah, I haven’t seen anything since the threat. Raul Mondesi is a biggish name so maybe he was the last prominent one for now?

Young Jeezy: would you trade Yu for Cole?

Paul Sporer: Definitely. I love Yu Darvish, but I don’t funk w/guys Year 1 off of TJ. I’d love to be wrong and have Darvish dominate from jump street, but even Jose Fernandez got hurt again last year so even with the good stats, the sample was small. I’m going to see Darvish tonight!!

TheRunningMan: What’s up with Shawn Kelley? Is he the set-up guy in Washington or is it Blake Treinen?

Paul Sporer: In a non-snarky way, I’ll say does it even matter? I think Pap has a huge leash with Dusty. But I do realize it’s still helpful to be on the next guy should something happen. Kelley is waaaay better this year so I say him

Royal Man: Bour? He is on a run, but what do we expect ROS?

Paul Sporer: Beast. I can see another 20-22 HRs. I’m a big fan. Highest on him this offseason http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/rotographs-ranking-march-update-first-base/

Jason: Buxton is tearing it up in AAA, batting .324 and walking more and striking out less. Did he just need to settle in and work on some things, or is he still a possible stud? He is available in our keep 6 league (12 teams.)

Paul Sporer: Well ya, of course he is still a possible stud. Anyone writing him off (and I’m not saying you were) was entirely foolish. He’s 21 with barely any MLB work under his belt. Could be a Rougned Odor situation. Remember how he went down and got right then came back and studed. I’d get Bux now in lgs where’s on the wire (more than you think)

Mike with an Y: Pearce has to win the 1b job outright from Morrison soon, yeah? I mean why even play LoMo, I wanna see him NoMo

Paul Sporer: Ya, even with Pearce’s flaws v. RHP he’s still better. LoMo has a 1 OPS+… A ONE!!!!!

Nelson: Are Ventura or Cashner any better than a streamer du jour?

Paul Sporer: Nope 🙁

TheRunningMan: Rank these SP – Verlander, Garcia, J.Gray, Pomeranz and Gausman

Paul Sporer: Don’t boss me!

Paul Sporer: JK. Garcia, JV, Pomy, Gaus, Gray. Gray just can’t really be trusted with Coors being his home park.

Young Jeezy: should I be worried about Kluber since Eno is?

Paul Sporer: Not just BECAUSE Eno is. You can def think for yourself. Do you agree with Eno’s reasons for concern?

Snarky Dick: It’s me!

Paul Sporer: Owen from the comments?!

Brian: What’s my best course of action if my SP is a dumpster fire and nobody in my league makes a trade unless they come out the clear winner? I try to find middle ground and always get countered with downright insulting offers. FYI, this is a league where nobody would trade a 9th/10th round pick (8 keeper, 10 team) for Robinson Cano or Matt Carpenter during the offseason.

Paul Sporer: Ouch, that’s tough, B. I think at that point, you have to buy low and ugly. Waino, Gray, Pineda, Keuchel. If they want unrealistic hauls for those guys, then I guess it’s waiver time

Hey Paul!: Aaron Sanchez or gray ros? Keeper pts lg. Thanks!!

Paul Sporer: Sanchez assuming that’s Jon Gray.

JFK Jr lives: Any concerns about Brantley or just rusty. Got him in all three leaugues starting to worry myself

Paul Sporer: Probably rusty. Stephania Bell was pretty high on him all along, believing the shoulder wouldn’t be a huge issue. She’s obviously not 100% right, but I’ll defer to her on injury stuff. I avoided him in general bc shoulders just worry me, but I’d sit tight if I had shares

Dan: Whats good Paul! Which side do you prefer, Moose or Smyly? Dynasty league and the price/inflation is essentially the same

Paul Sporer: Smyly

Mike with an Y: Wonder if D.H.Lee will win PT from Lind too, though I feel like it’s not as big as the Pearce/Lomo disparity

Paul Sporer: I can definitely see it. Lind has been BRUTAL, too

Hamist02: Puig . . . what’s a reasonable expectation going forward. Hoping .280/.350/.450 . . .

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s reasonable. Hasn’t been elite yet, but I still believe

Kris: What to do with Pollock in a keeper. I have Conforto, Joc, Mazara, Revere and Pollock. Probably only enough spots to keep 4. Whose trade bait?

Paul Sporer: If you’re contending now, sell Pollock. Worry about the now

Daniel : Would you trade Prince Fielder for Josh Reddick? 10 team mixed league points

Paul Sporer: Ya, I think I would. I think Prince is hurt again 🙁

jtb: Would you rather keep Devon Travis or Scooter Gennett on your bench for potential 2B help?

Paul Sporer: Travis more dynamic

Espy: Sell low on Brad Miller? That K rate is worse than him in his lousy 2014… wonder if he’s selling out for power?

Paul Sporer: Sure, though a sell low on him is probably just cutting him

Jay: How long till Glasnow replaces Locke

Paul Sporer: Taillon could be first

AJ: “he’s not as good as his August last year and this 18-gm run.” – Paul. But you will use smaller samples to backup claims on guys you sold us on

Paul Sporer: Huh?

Paul Sporer: Do you think he’s as good as his peak? Do you think anyone is as good as their peak run?

Espy: Is this current iteration of Leonys Martin better or worse? I mean he’s actually kinda big at 6’2 200+ so maybe he’s got it in him

Paul Sporer: And AJ, what are your examples? Of course I’ve used isolated samples to discuss things, but I’m missing whatever point you seem to be going for

Paul Sporer: Re: Leonys I think this version is better even though it’s a major AVG liability. I’ve always thought he could be a power-speed guy after watching him for a summer in Round Rock. If he can just get back to .245-.250 AVG, that’d be great

Tim: what’s your take on J Upton and JD martinez? These guys going to turn it around?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I think so

Biff: What do you make of Justin Upton? Would trading him for Samardzija be selling too low? I could use another SP.

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. But you might not get a ton more so if you really need SP, I get it. Shark has AT&T to protect him.

Brian: I was trying to make a move for Altuve in my 5X5 (ops instead of average) league, because I wasn’t totally sold on Odor’s ability to maintain his pace. I think he’s made me change my tune. Smarter to hold on to Odor and whoever else (pitching) it would have cost me to get Altuve, or should restart my pursuit.

Paul Sporer: No hold Odor and the rest of your assets. Altuve is another level, but he’s probably cost prohibitive at this point

dbet: Justin Upton first career start in center. This will be interesting.

Paul Sporer: Right? :popcorn emoji:

Tim: What kind of pitcher can I get for M saunders (SP or closer)?

Paul Sporer: A pretty mediocre one

PK Fire: Buy or sell on Eovaldi?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league, but mostly still buying

John: So Sonny Gray just needs to make an adjustment and all is well again?

Paul Sporer: 😐

PK Fire: Drop Jimmy Rollins for E. Nunez?

Paul Sporer: Ya

Paul Sporer: Officially done with J Up questions today, too

MP: In a VERY limited (4 total) pick up leagues is Steven Wright worth an end of year addition? Next best are the hollands and a j griffins of the world.

Paul Sporer: Damn that’s so limited. I think no based on that

SR: What’s wrong with Severino?

Paul Sporer: He’s 22. Expectations were too high.

Endoplasmic Ridiculum: Zunino pulling a Montero or is he legit about to bust out in the majors? I know catchers do develop late and that K rate is so low…

Paul Sporer: I think more Montero than anything rn.

Bill: Drew Pomeranz…..Wow.

Paul Sporer: He’s Gucci!

Paul Sporer: Oh and i was all over him last year. #yearearly

John: You’re willing to sell low on Archer. Same for Son… wait I’m just kidding, I definitely didn’t ask another Sonny Gray question!

Paul Sporer: Fixed that for ya

Roe Bott: Are any of these folks worth owning over Yordano and Pineda: Tomlin, Leake, DeSclafani, Bauer

Paul Sporer: Yeesh, might just hold course on those 2. Some folks like Tomlin, I’m not one of them

Lady stoneheart: Would you trade sale and duffy for altuve and McCullers

Paul Sporer: Ya

brad: did salfino ever apologize to you and eno? what was up with the bee in his bonnet?

Paul Sporer: Nope. Just who he is, tbh. Always firing hot takes.

Endoplasmic Ridiculum: Has Navarro done enough to claim the starting job from Avila? Lol AL-only 2 catcher leagues :/

Paul Sporer: Ya I think, though hasn’t been THAT much better

Kevin: Joe Ross regression beginning? That K-rate is down, and the SIERA and xFIP numbers look rough. Still holding?

Paul Sporer: Well those skills didn’t support a 1.23 ERA so we knew it’d come down at some point. He’s good, not great (yet)

Brian: Do you think Odor can end the season as a top 3 2B?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, espec. w/Dee susp.

Better: Drop Pineda time?

Paul Sporer: Seriously? http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/tipping-pitches-cutting-bait-on-three-top-60-arms/

Chris: Starlin Castro or Baez RoS?

Paul Sporer: Castro

James: Puig and Eickhoff for Joey Bats? 12tm H2H cat league with OPS and AVG

Paul Sporer: Fair. Eick is fungible in 12 tm so I like it

Bart Bennison: Marlins 2017 closer: Ramos [assume not dealt], Phelps, Barraclough, other

Paul Sporer: Ramos

Paul Sporer: Capps won’t be back right away

CJ: How are you doing in your leagues so far?

Paul Sporer: Mixed bag. Some top 3s, top bottom 3s.

BBK: Should Justin Turner owners be worried?

Paul Sporer: Not really, especially given the cost

Tiger in TX: Need to get a Tiger on my main fantasy team. Who’s the best buy low target? Thinking maybe JD…

Paul Sporer: Do it!!

Dissapointed: On a scale of 1-10 how worried should i be that my staff is led by kluber greinke and price.

Paul Sporer: 5? With Greinke as your 3, I’m cool with it.

Chris: In a 12-team mixed league, would you drop Carlos Gomez for JBJ?

Paul Sporer: I think so but only bc I think Gomez is hurt.

DB: I have a $1 Chris Carter in a otto points league. Should I be looking to cash in his hot start?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Todd: Who wins: my VV and Berrios for Cole and Baez? is it too early to sell high on VV

Paul Sporer: Cole/Baez side

Stan: JBJ or Carlos Gomez?

Paul Sporer: Stan, are you also Chris?

Rean Sudy: so who do I email to ask MLB network to get you hosting your own show?

Paul Sporer: hahah, spam their twitter 🙂

wellington castillo: am I for real?

Paul Sporer: Ya, as a power C for sure

Brent: AVG and OBP league. Drop Gordon for Holliday?

Paul Sporer: I imagine shallow. Sure.

Karl Farbman: Would you trade G. Polanco for Kluber?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, but that’s a fair deal both sides

Discount Store: Trade Sale for Thor?

Paul Sporer: Ehhhh, challenge trade. If you prefer Thor, then sure. Not sure there’s UPSIDE in the deal, though

canofcorn66: Is Buchholz even worth hanging onto at all in a 14 tm mixed, or droppable for someone like Trevor Bauer?

Paul Sporer: I’d get Buaer

Paul Sporer: Bauer*

Zorak: Is Wilmer Flores just not a good baseball player? Bench/util guy in my NL-only but my DL is full so I might just drop him. OBP league and he’s got a career .285 OBP…

Paul Sporer: Ya just not that good of a player

DynastyQ: Degrom for Giolito for rebuilding?

Paul Sporer: I’d rather get a big bat if I’m moving deGrom in a rebuild

Eim Jiben: will Jose Reyes get 200 ABs in the 2nd half of the year? half-season of him would be worth stashing on a deep bench compared to other floatsom and jetsom MI scum.

Paul Sporer: Honestly no idea. I’m staying away.

Nick: T. Frazier or Joey Bats…which side would you want?

Paul Sporer: Bats, but like both a good bit

lbonz: do I cut bait on Andrew miller in a nonholds league to add a speculative guy like sam dyson?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t. Miller can be useful in non-holds just with his ratios & Ks

jigga: “sensitive thugs, ya’ll need hugs” applies to all parties in these little spats, imo

Paul Sporer: I’m not mad. But someone comes into my comments firing off snark while also making an incorrect point, I’m gonna fire back. I just don’t get these clowns who come out firing and then get so surprised when I fire back

Cory: Jon Gray on the road or Bauer?

Paul Sporer: Gray road

davey: Kyle Gibson worth a look when he returns from DL ?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I thought he did some things last year that are worthwhile

Mark: You staying away from C Mart in keeper leagues until you see a clean bill of health?

Paul Sporer: I generally avoid SPs in keeper leagues altogether. I prefer to build around hitters.

Paul Sporer: But yeah he has more risk than your avg SP, imo

Longtimereader, firsttimetyper: Was offered his Jason Heyward straight up for my Craig Kimbrel. H2H points league where I’m stacked at closer (Jansen, Rondon, Familia… draft went sideways, don’t ask), so losing Kimbrel not a huge deal. But am I getting good value? Heyward’s soft contact and wrist issues scare me.

Paul Sporer: the last line is key. I think there’s a reason behind his numbers and it might not be fixed without a DL stint or even until the offseason. it’s close, but I might still pass

Ben: Why don’t you guys distinguish between different types of innings limits? My sense is that you put a pretty steep discount on a guy who’s only likely to give you 170 or 180 IP. That totally makes sense for a guy who’s going to have starts skipped, etc. — maybe to save some innings for playoffs — so that it will be hard to get any other IP out of that SP slot. But if a going-nowhere team is going to just pitch a guy every 5 days until he’s done, the fantasy manager has a chance to replace those missing IP (at a lower quality, probably, but still). This is why — at least in shallow leagues where those replacement IP might be pretty decent — I feel like Velasquez is widely undervalued. I look at him like old school Tulo — you knew you were only getting 120 GP, but you also knew the missed games would be in big chunks, so you had to think of it as 120 Tulo + 25 waiver wire SS. Am I daft or does this make sense?

Paul Sporer: You’re not daft, but I think it’s hard to really project those things. I think what you’re saying makes sense re: VV, but what if they mess around and keep winning (they won’t, but what if?) and then all of a sudden, they’re wondering if they should skip him in season to make it to the finish line.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going here soon. Round Rock isn’t that far away, but I live in South Austin and traffic is a bish

Paul Sporer: couple more Qs

Bom Tudd: awwww…. uncle Pauley…. can we stay up and chat longer?

Paul Sporer: Not today! still got 2 hours in

Martin: Trumbo’s line ROS. 20 more dingers?

Paul Sporer: Sure, but with a .240 AVG. He’s crushing the ball, but I feel like this hot start is nothing new

Mark: Where did VV’s Ks go? Or was his last few starts just low K opponents?

Paul Sporer: Well he wasn’t going to be overlooked after that SD gem. Just ebbs and flows of a season I imagine

canofcorn66: Schoop or Travis in a keeper?

Paul Sporer: Schoop

Catchers suck: Gomes, Herrmann or Grandal?

Paul Sporer: Grandal

Sam: Castellanos or K Seager ROS

Paul Sporer: Seags

Re: Reyes: Since Reyes situation is such an unknown would you deal Story?

Paul Sporer: No. I don’t think he’s really going to force Story out of PT.

Sam: I get Giancarlo and B Phillips for Altuve. Short on power, not speed. Yes or no?

Paul Sporer: Hot!

Bom Tudd: oooooo…. lightening round

Paul Sporer: Lightning, but yes

DwyJon: Hey Paul, big fan of Sleeper and the Bust. Just wondering who you think are the top 10 starting pitchers ROS. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’ll do a full ranking soon. I think we’re going to get rid of the NL SP Tiers that I do every month and instead I’ll do everyone.

Adam: Liked hearing about Eddie Butler on the pod. Would you drop someone like Trop or Eickhoff for him or Bauer? Looking for a solid back-end guy.

Paul Sporer: They’re all in the same tier area so go with personal preferences there?

Minty: OBP/QS dynasty Urias+Quintana for CMart(scary shoulder), Giolito, and Conforto(6th OF)

Paul Sporer: Gimme the trio

No Regrets: I’m being stupid not to give up Bauer for Dyson (ALOn) right? I need pitchers of all types. Stupid stupid stupid….

Paul Sporer: Bauer > Dyson

Paul Sporer: Just bc he’s an SP and still has lot of talnet

Paul Sporer: talent even

Thunder!: Xander or Story?

Paul Sporer: I <3 Xander, but I think it’s Story. Coors FTW

Lightning!: Sano or Franco?

Paul Sporer: Franco for me

Trade: Yelich/Altuve or Trout/Dietruch/Baez?

Paul Sporer: Side A for sure

steve: Votto for archer?

Paul Sporer: Votto, but totally fair both sides

Martin: Early season Eugenio all an illusion??? He’s gone cold.

Paul Sporer: he’s quite chilly, but I still like him a lil’ bit. Hold in all but shallowest (10-12 tms0

Zorak: Fulmer or Rubby?

Paul Sporer: Rubby by a smidge bc Fulmer won’t be given a HUGE leash now that Daniel Norris is back and Shane Greene working his way back

Bill: Will Astros call up AJ Reed this year?

Paul Sporer: Ya

Ben: Thoughts on Blake Snell?

Paul Sporer: Solid for sure. Good upside when he returns

canofcorn66: Graveman below Bauer/Trop/Eick?

Paul Sporer: For me, yes

Journey: Any hope for Wieters as a top 10 catcher?

Paul Sporer: Faint. But C is so poopy that maybe so

Mike Pest: Is Hamels, Calhoun and Panik for Cano as BAD as everybody thought it was???

Paul Sporer: No. How many teams?

Sam: What kind of bat should I look for when dealing Lester? Got Strasburg and Carrasco. Or can he legitimately be a top ten pitcher?

Paul Sporer: A really strong one

Paul Sporer: Lester is a beast

Mucho Maas: You starting McCullers tomorrow against Boston?

Paul Sporer: Ya considering you likely paid a handsome price.

rg: trade mazara for buxton in a keep 4ever?

Paul Sporer: i wouldn’t, but it’s fair

Goop: Rank Snell Conley W-YChen in a k/9?

Paul Sporer: inverse order of how you listed ’em

El Chubbito: Remove AL and NL for ALL tiers!

Paul Sporer: Could be. Could be for sure.

Pete: Think Lucroy gets traded any time soon? If so to who

Paul Sporer: I actually don’t. Don’t usually see starting Cs dealt in-season, but Texas lines up nicely if so

Brad: Rodon/Puig/Nick Williams for Harper?

Paul Sporer: Not enough

Paul Sporer: so if you’re getting Harper and they agree, jump on it

Paul Sporer: OK all done!

Paul Sporer: thanks for coming out

Paul Sporer: @sporer on twitter if you have questions still. thespguide.com for 2016 SP Guide. It’s on sale for $20 now (plus in-season updates).