Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – 4/14/16

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all! Thanks for coming out!

Paul Sporer: Huge surprise that the Tigers bullpen is melting down. So weird.

MarinerDan: Are you buying Shane Greene after that nasty display last night?

Paul Sporer: LOL, seriously? I’ve been touting him all winter. And last year.

Otis : Is Houston ever going to forget trading away Vincent Velasquez? He is the definition of hot fire right now! V-I-N-C-E

Paul Sporer: They knew what they were doing. They needed a stud RP to compete this year. Yeah he could’ve probably done a Giles imitation in relief, but VV is a starter and they couldn’t just take him out of that role for the team.

Paul Sporer: And I’m a HUGE VV backer, but it is the Padres.

biased fantasy owner: I streamed VV for all three teams today. Thinking I may just keep him! Thoughts, and what is his floor? thanks!

Paul Sporer: Great start. Use ANYONE v. SD at this point. Ride VV while you can bc he will NOT make it to the finish line with innings.

Mark: Who needs porn when you have VV!

VFart: What the hell do I do with my three aces Archer, Keuchel, and Degrom?

Paul Sporer: Sit tight. deGrom the only real concern bc he’s hurt

Dave: Velasquez is having quite the afternoon… drop a guy like Hendricks for him in a K/BB league?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I was drafting him ahead of Hendricks in March, tbh

Paul Sporer: Not tooting my own horn, either. It’s 2 starts against modest competition. Just saying I’ve been preferring VV all season so far

ctw: hey Paul, would you move Nola for AJ Ramos if you were looking for saves? I have E-Rod, McCullers, and Gausman waiting in the wings with some other good high tier SP.

Paul Sporer: Definitely. Ramos has upper-tier closer potential. He’s really good.

Cory S.: Which trade is better *now*: Giles or Kimbrel? VV is making Houston fans squirm.

Paul Sporer: Both really helped the respective selling teams. That’s why bad teams don’t need closers. But if Houston gets to the playoffs and has a strong bullpen, they won’t regret it. They’re goals were different and made moving a 23 y/o developing arm possible

Paul Sporer: Plus judging a trade after the guy gets to face SD is always gonna work favorably for that guy

Smoo: Logan Morrison has a 40% K rate… And a 75% GB rate! Why are the Rays starting him! Will Steven Pearce earn a full time role?

Paul Sporer: Not sure. He’s not v good. Of course, same can be said of Pearce. He’s not all that good, either.

Otis : Gerardo Parra or Matt Holliday ROS?

Paul Sporer: Parra

Gest : You liked Harvey to get a lot of Ks this year – is there anything that he’s not doing that you expected him to do that is causing his lack of Ks?

Paul Sporer: Stuff is a little off, I’m not concerned long-term

Jeet: Should I be worried about Ian Desmond? I traded ERod away for him and Baez so I am inclined to give him time (it is a keep 12 league and I have 15 players I would keep over him)

Paul Sporer: Gotta sit tight

Otis : Will your tigers ever have a palatable bullpen?

Paul Sporer: I just don’t understand it. It’s SO frustrating, though

Leggo: Drop any of Gose, LoMo, Rollins or B. Miller for Butler in my deep AL only?

Paul Sporer: *shrug* personal preference. nothing jumps out there

wee: Paul, in a keeper (triple slash offensive cats) where I have Arenado and Donaldson. Would you ever consider trying to deal one of them for another superstud at another position, or just let it ride in a UTIL spot?

Paul Sporer: if you get the right offer, sure, but it’d have to be a first rounder or two early rounders to plug a hole somewhere. otherwise just ride 2 stud 1st-rounders

biased fantasy owner: Also, I know this is fantasy oriented, but it’s worth pointing out right now that MLBN has had Hawk Harrelson broadcasted day games twice this week. No one deserves this.

Paul Sporer: lol

Miguel Sano: Am I a buy low or a SELL NOW?

Paul Sporer: I wasn’t that interested in the first place. But if you invested him and are surprised by a run like this, then you weren’t paying attention. When a guy fans 36% of the time in 335 PA, a 42% mark for 30 PA is hardly surprising. Buy if you believe, but you gotta hold if you own

Sailor Jerry: Should I be trying to buy Buxton in dynasties right now?

Paul Sporer: if you believe in him

Jeet: Pick 1 or 2 to drop (I ideally like having 1 bench bat but 2 isn’t bad in season) – JRoll, Soler, Gardner and Baez. Gardner has been AWFUL by the by.

Paul Sporer: not sure league size, but can prob JRoll regardless

Christian: Can you rank Aaron Sanchez, Nola, and Conley?

Paul Sporer: Nola-Conley-Sanchez, but there isn’t a ton of separation

VFart: Should I just drop ARod at this point? Deep league h2h with SLG/OBP. Would have Soler/Bour as replacements.

Paul Sporer: You can as those aren’t bad replacements. Arod had a rotten August last year, so maybe this is just his bad month.

Cory S.: Watching this Archer outing with my bottle of Tums. Uggg…

Paul Sporer: Not watching. Locked in on my Tigers and VV

Jake: In a dynasty, keeper forever league where cost isn’t an issue, how many pitchers are you taking over Thor?

Paul Sporer: Not too many. He’s definitely top-10 right now. Eno bumped him even higher on yesterday’s pod.

Starwars: Bassitt or E. Rodriguez. Both available. Who to take? Tahnsk

Paul Sporer: ERod has more upside

SRN: In a vacuum, give J. Fernandez to get Springer? Should I worry about Springer’s K’s in the early going? You’re a legend.

Paul Sporer: Ks are part of Springer’s game, so I’m not too worried. Yes I could do that. Two second-round or so talents trading for each other… in that scenario, in the proverbial vacuum, I lean hitter

wee: just dropped Fiers and McHugh for Eickhoff and Hendricks. Crazy? Or should I turn around and drop one of them for Shane Greene lol

Paul Sporer: No, not crazy. Seems like a 12-teamer with some decent arms on the wire? Streaming seems like a viable strategy here

Starwars: Avisail Garcia: putting it all together as we speak?

Paul Sporer: Perhaps. The talent is there.

Phil: Alex Gordon or Evan Longoria? Ignore position. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Longo barely

MarinerDan: Rank these closers: Papelbon, Jeffress, Gregerson, Rondon

Paul Sporer: Rondon, Pap, Gregerson, Jeffress

Randy: Hey Paul lame trade question here, 12 team 6×6. trade anibal and Brandon Crawford for Smyly? Already have Suarez Desmond and Semien at SS already on roster

Paul Sporer: Hmm, kinda surprised Crawford can’t get it done. Maybe I’m underrating Smyly. I don’t love it, but given your SS depth, it’s do-able if you desire Smyly. Keep in mind that he has some injury concerns, too, much like Anibal

Jim: Wacha with a nice K/9 last outing. Do you think he can maintain a ~9.00 K/9 or is he what he is at ~7.50?

Paul Sporer: No I’ve maintained that he has more in the tank. He’s still developing. I really think he can be a great #2 with a tinge of fantasy ace potential

Paul Sporer: Jaso outta his mind. Was basically free bc he was UT-only, but just a damn good hitter. Health the only issue.

MarinerDan: Over/Under on dingers for Grichuk: 25

Paul Sporer: Push? I think he’s in the mid-20s

Josh: Better pickup, Eickhoff or Conley?

Paul Sporer: Conley better team, even if MIA isn’t *great*. That’s the tiebreaker here

MarinerDan: Are you worried about Sano at all or is this just early season SSS?

Paul Sporer: Scroll up. Didn’t like him coming in, though. Way overpriced.

Starwars: Gausman is a critical darling….but is he actually gonna be real-life good?

Paul Sporer: Well Baltimore has struggled to develop any arms, so it’s a fair question, but the arm talent is definitely there.

John: Who ends the year with more saves, Jepsen or Doolittle?

Paul Sporer: I’ll lean Doolittle because of my affinity for Trevor May in Minnesota

Yoenis Envy: who produced the sick intro beats for S&theB

Paul Sporer: Not sure. Found a free thing a while back. Love that little groove

Petey: Was offered Stroman for my carlos gomez. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: in a vacuum, I still prefer Gomez, but there are scenarios where it’s doable. Really thin on info here.

SRN: At all worried about Springer’s strikeout rate in the early going?

Paul Sporer: Already answered

Austin Vegan: Odor or Segura ROS?

Paul Sporer: Odor, but Segura has come MUCH closer even in just a week+

Jackie T. : I basically have nobody on my rotiserrie roster that steals bases except Trout, but I have a strong outfield of Trout, J Upton, Yelich and Soler. Somebody dropped Billy Hamilton. Is he even worth it for the one category? Or leave him on the wire?

Paul Sporer: If you have no SBs, then yes, for sure

Paul Sporer: Jaso doesn’t have speed, though! Lol

Brent: 14tm h2h. Which side McHugh and Joc or Brantley and Vizcaino. 10 cats hit and pitch. Extras are single, double, triple, BB, total bases for hit. Appearances, L, BB, holds and as for pitch

Paul Sporer: Love Joc, but Brantley is the best player in the deal. So I lean there

Sam: How Do you handicap the AL central teams this year? Looks to me like Twin’s 5th and a blanket over the rest.

Paul Sporer: Yeah and I’m reluctant to just trash them bc of the ugly start. They still seem capable of a high-70s, low-80s win total which means they’re a hot streak from reversing this start and making noise

Debbie Downer: FYI, Parra on DL (Toe)

Paul Sporer: It’s actually Blackmon

Paul Sporer:

Alex Breen: Start Ian Kennedy today against Houston?

Paul Sporer: Sure, not a terrible idea

Yoenis Envy: when is the sample size officially no longer small

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

Smoo: Pearce at least has a chance that 2014 was bad BABIP-induced and can be a .250-20 HR guy over 500 PA though, I think

Paul Sporer: Doesn’t really hit righties, though

MarinerDan: Are you expecting Carlos Martinez to take a step forward, potentially becoming a No. 1-type, this year?

Paul Sporer: It’s certainly possible. Lots to like with him, talent-wise

Josh: Jaime has 5 no-hit innings vs MIL? Does he finish the job?

Paul Sporer: LOL no idea

Debbie Downer: Thor for Dickey…..

Paul Sporer: the danger of trading pitching prospects. but they don’t always pan out like that

rustydude: Hey thanks for the player portfolio piece. It’s interesting to see which players that fantasy authors favor.

Paul Sporer: No problem!

Yoenis Envy: Alfredo Simon for Eugenio Suarez: who says no

Paul Sporer: Hate you

Alex Breen: Drop Ken Giles in 12 team mixed?

Paul Sporer: You can

Yoenis Envy: what is the twitter hande for Eno Sarris’ impossibly springy locks

Paul Sporer: @enosarris

HappyFunBall: Can we arrange it so that Velasquez pitches only against the Pads and Mets all season long?

Paul Sporer: Right? He’ll get plenty of looks at the Braves, too

Blake: I have Kris Bryant at $10 in a $280 cap NL-only keeper league with 15 hitters and 10 pitchers. He has 2 years left on his contract. I have been offered Marcel Ozuna and Gerrit Cole (both in last years of their deals) for him. I’m thinking no. I am in contention.

Paul Sporer: pass

Iggy: In a deep AL only I have only 4 Free Agent transactions allowed per season… should I use one to drop Gose for Tucker?

Paul Sporer: 4 all year? that’s insane. just too many DL stints in MLB to limit it like that. As for the question, I’d probably wait given how precious moves are

Kevin Maas: Sano – it’s like looking in the mirror

Paul Sporer: See also: Cust, Jack

Iggy: Is there a way Preston Tucker still gets ABs in the lineup? Crazy to think that someone hitting as well as him is blocked, but I don’t see a way

Paul Sporer: Don’t overrate 8 games. He’s an 0-for-6 run from a .230 AVG. Just an 0-for-6 would take him from .300 to .230. Don’t get hung up on the rate stats right now with hitters.

agam22: Bottom two hitters on my roster are Tyler White and Buxton, who ha keeper value. When Brantley gets off the DL I need to clear room. I will try to shop them but if I can’t make a deal is it time to just give up on Buxton?

Paul Sporer: No probably not. I think you gotta stick longer with Bux if you drafted him

HappyFunBall: Swap Story for Desmond now while their prices are likely at extremes? Or is Desi cooked?

Paul Sporer: I generally back Desmond, but Coors cures a lot of ills so even when Story struggles, I don’t think he’ll crater. I’d sit tight. Need more to move Story now

MarinerDan: What is your view of trade vetoes in fantasy leagues? Can/should they ever be used except in egregrious cases of lopsided value/collusion?

Paul Sporer: Only if you can prove collusion. By and large, vetoes are utter bullshit

Chad: New members of the Tigers bullpen taking care of business. VerHagen still under whatever curse was placed upon them last year

Paul Sporer: Lowe was SO good last year. Comes to Detroit…

Yoenis Envy: worth trading anything much for VV, given current hype (12K!) and fact that he’ll get give or take 8 wins all year?

Paul Sporer: No, it’d be a terrible time to trade for him

Cory S.: VV’s 100 and 101st pitches were at 96 and 97 mph respectively.

Paul Sporer: Bc he’s a stud.

Mike: Cole Hamels + ___ = Matt Harvey? What’s a “fair” position player you could toss in to make this work?

Paul Sporer: I know it seems like a copout, but it’s impossible to say. Every league is different. Every lg manager in every lg is different so it’s just too hard to pin something down like that. Hamels + a decent player (like round 10-14, maybe?) could get it done. but if you’re trading with me, I’d require more bc I think Harvey is a beast and I’m not worried

Yoenis Envy: Any idea what’s happening in the OAK outfield? Is Billy Beane “showcasing” Crisp (as much as such a thing is possible) in order to trade?

Paul Sporer: Think they’re just using him while healthy. It’s SO early. too soon to freak

Daniel: I have questions, but I’m really here to see what Char is up to.

Paul Sporer: Damn Daniel! She’s sleepin behind me. That little stinkbug needs a bath

Paul Sporer: which is what will happen immediately after this chat

Paul Sporer: BTW, gonna be a shorter chat today. Headed out of town tomorrow so I’m really tight on time today

Austin Vegan: VV or T Walker ROS?

Paul Sporer: Walker

Otis : Is it finally over for Wil Myers if he doesn’t have a successful season, is he ever going to cash in on potential?

Paul Sporer: He was pretty good last yr when he played. 2014 is the only down season performance-wise.

Crumbs: nola or Rodon?

Paul Sporer: Rodon

Anthony: Given that bullpen, do you think your Tigers can challenge for a wildcard?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, it hasn’t even been as bad as is being suggested. It’s just extra frustrating any time they struggle bc of the history. Without the history, we’d barely notice this year

William Wallace : Hosmer or Freddie freeman, keep forever?

Paul Sporer: Flip a coin and go preference honestly

Anne Tony Oh: Do you like Gallo more than Reed considering Gallo’s gangbusters start and low-20s Triple-A K rate?

Paul Sporer: If that’s the reasoning, no, not at all. 7 games doesn’t erase 390 of a 35% rate

Crumbs: Should I use my #2 wavier and Wil Myers or Parra for Brett Gardner?

Paul Sporer: Parra

Argo: Napoli or B. Park? Lol

Paul Sporer: They weren’t that far apart to start the season for me, so I’m fine going w/Nap if you’re sour on Park

Snarfle: Are you on the Max Kepler train? I picked him up as speculation in my 14-teamer, but I’m not sure how long he lasts. On my team that is.

Paul Sporer: I like the spec pick up. I do like him

Matt Moore: You buying?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I jumped back on this draft season

HappyFunBall: Any chance PHI moves VV to the pen to save innings rather than just shut him down?

Paul Sporer: Plausible for sure

Anthony: I’ve been saying this for weeks now on various chats on here…..the Astros will regret trading Velasquez.

Paul Sporer: I think they understand what they gave up

JAL: Any worries on Archer?

Paul Sporer: Haven’t had a chance to watch yet. My only concerns have always been that his velo and slider usage are injury markers

LudeBurger: Can you tell me I am awesome??? :'(

Paul Sporer: No.

George: Need a 1b solution for a points league. Starting Forsythe there, with Ryan Zimmerman seeming like my only option. Should I just be waiting on AJ Reed?

Paul Sporer: Go with Zimm for now

Argo: Do you think vintage Mauer is back or is this just a hot streak?

Paul Sporer: It’s been 8 games, what do you think? 🙂

Poncho: Is Khris Davis worth burning a 1 waiver priority in a 15 team mixed league? I would just be holding him in a bench role over Desmond Jennings or Ketel Marte.

Paul Sporer: I like him fine, but nah, I think I’d hold the priority

JAL: Any worries about Todd Frazier in new environment/league?

Paul Sporer: I am not worried about any hitter 8 games in. I’m sorry for the blanket statement, but it’s just foolhardy to legitimately worry about any hitter right now with SUCH a tiny sample of work. Unless injury is at play, we just gotta breathe a bit

Paul Sporer: I know it’s hard bc we’ve been waiting for baseball all winter and we want to see our teams succeed right away, but go look at some gamelogs and see how quickly things change with one great game for a “slow starter” or two bad games for a “fast starter”.

Cory S.: Speaking of ERod. He had like two horrible outing last year and the rest of the starts where pretty good. Supposedly he was tipping pitches. Any belief in it? Could that make him a bit of a buy low?

Paul Sporer: Totally. They broke it down pretty well. I think it was behind his bad starts.

Von Schloss: Is it too early to look to deal Cutch in a dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Like at a discount? Absolutely.

Argo: How would you presently rank Greene, D. Holland, Co. Anderson, Bassitt?

Paul Sporer: Greene, Anderson, Holland, Bassitt

Austin Vegan: Realistically, how valuable will VV be for the next few months? Top 30 starter?

Paul Sporer: That’s pretty lofty bc fair or not, wins are part of the equation to determining that top-30 ranking and they just won’t be there for him like they will for many others.

Hoohoo: Emcee SpoSpo: Who wins the AL east this year?

Paul Sporer: Toronto

Ian Kennedy: Me or Adam Conley in a league that includes Wins and Losses?

Paul Sporer: Think you gotta go Kennedy w/W & L included

Jhonny: Who would you rather have for the rest of the season: Danny Valencia or Tyler White?

Paul Sporer: White

Snarfle: I bought into the Eno hype on Ozuna, and I’m willing to hold, but in one league we’ve got Reddick on the waiver along with lots of flavor of the month types (Hazelbacher (sp?), White) and mucho prospects.

Paul Sporer: Don’t see Reddick much differently than O so stick with who ya got

Bob: Paul love your work! i picked up some extra starters due to injuries from my draft… now have John Lamb, Kevin Gausman, Shane Greene, Chase Anderson, Adam Conley and VV for 4 spots… after today VV stays so which 2 am i dropping?

Paul Sporer: Chase and Lamb

RJ: Also – CASTELLANOS!

Paul Sporer: Really like the early start

Ella Menno Pee: As someone who owns Keuchel and Kluber fronting my rotation, how concerned should I be about their diminished velocity?

Paul Sporer: Moderately. Check Eno’s Omnibus piece for more on Keuchel

mario mendoza: Bail on Hahn in favor of Skaggs, Norris, or Miley?

Paul Sporer: I’d stick with Hahn for now. Norris next up.

Joe: Kyle Gibson or Jason Hammel rest of the season?

Paul Sporer: Hammel barely

kylerrrr: Hey Paul! Quick question: What kind of a trade return for Nomar Mazara in a 5×5 10 team keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Sorry but that’s too hard to say. It’s what your market will give and what you’re willing to accept. I could throw out a blind guess, but it’d be less helpful than this which I know doesn’t feel helpful. Determine what you need and what you’d take then go from there

Von Schloss: Keep forever who is the better asset, Freddie Freeman or Anthony Rendon?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Rendon guy

Jason: The best pitcher I can target for Trevor Story without insulting my leaguemates is _____________________?

Paul Sporer: Probably 25 and beyond from ADP: http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=SP

Ella Menno Pee: P. Tucker or B. Miller ROS?

Paul Sporer: Miller barely

Pete: Dynasty league. Eno or Jason?

Paul Sporer: Jason’s had some surgeries, Eno still has some upside

jon: Cashner a streamer in 15-team mixed? Greene, Tropeano, Holland wire options. Keep 1 as my last SP or stream the spot?

Paul Sporer: Streamer right now, yeah. I like all of those guys similarly so just stream the best option

Claude: Soler or Ozuna ROS?

Paul Sporer: Soler slightly after the Schwarber injury opened up PT

hopslammed: I’ve never gotten an answer for this from an expert after years of asking: Do you think it matters having too many hitters from one team on a daily h2h league team? For example, I have three Cubs hitters on my team in a 12-teamer. In roto it obviously doesn’t mean anything, but am I potentially screwing myself considering SSS? Nevermind that I am a Reds fan and hate the Cubs, but here we are.

Paul Sporer: No, the best talent is the best talent

Von Schloss: Worse track record of development, Baltimore with pitchers or Seattle with hitters?

Paul Sporer: Baltimore, but it’s close

Sam: Joc or Conforto in a keeper? Yelich or Polanco? Statement game by Jaime Garcia. Think he’s top 30 SP if healthy. keyword IF

Paul Sporer: Joc, Polanco. Garcia won’t stay healthy. We have no reason to believe he’ll throw more than 125ish innings. But ride him while you can bc he’s a v good pitcher

Cory S.: Can you challenge plays in MLB the Show?

Paul Sporer: Only plays at 1B

KC: Is –empty– a better fantasy player than Clay Buchholz?

Paul Sporer: Def

Grant: Drop Carlos Santana for Teixeira?

Paul Sporer: Nah

Tom: 12 team, 5×5. Puig and Conforto for Mazara and Salazar?

Paul Sporer: Def side A

The Man in Gaus!The Man in Gaus!: Drop Erasmo for K. Herrera?

Paul Sporer: If you need an RP, but Erasmo will start and be solid

Dre Day: worries about Khris Davis?

Paul Sporer: No hitter worries after 10 days

MarinerDan: Does Delino Deshields stand to lose PT once Choo comes back?

Paul Sporer: Maybe. But I’m not sure Desmond has a stranglehold on PT over DD

mario mendoza: Trying to sell Shelby because loss of velo, new park have me scared. How low would you go? Asking for Neil Walker right now, but I might even settle for Cesar Hernandez… or cut.

Paul Sporer: Woof, I wouldn’t do any of that

Anal Hershiser: Start Waino vs CIN Saturday? I’m nervous

Paul Sporer: if you’re nervous v Cin, you should trade him bc that shouldn’t be scaring you

Stan: ROS- VV or Conley?

Paul Sporer: VV has higher upside, Conley more IP

Sirras One: Ian Desmond for Severino about fair?

Paul Sporer: Yeah

yojiveself: grandal or cervelli?

Paul Sporer: Grandal much higher ceiling but health has been an issue for sure

Minty: Do you believe in Buxton? I feel as if his value will probably only go down as his shiny prospect status fades.

Paul Sporer: I’ve never been a huuuuge fan, but I’m not giving up yet by any stretch. He has what, 150 PA?

Paul Sporer: OK y’all for the shorter chat today, but I gotta get rolling. Maybe next week we can start worrying about some hitters, but I doubt it. Just relax a bit. A lot of these guys will have you laughing at yourself for worrying this by the time we reach the end of the month.

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out. I’ll see if i can finagle my schedule for a marathon session next week.