Paul Sporer Chat’s – August 27th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, welcome to the chat!!

No! Ugh…: Are you scared of the recent Noah Cameron fall-off or just a blip?

Paul Sporer: It’s only 1 bad start. He gets more leeway than that. But 2-3 in a row would be cause for concern w/a rookie

Paul Sporer: BRB, gotta let the dogs out early in the chat, sorry about that… but we’ll good to go after that

80-grade hair: Is the Password just a small side platoon bat with a 80-grade nickname and lustrous hair? Will he be worth keeping for $10 in AL Only?

Paul Sporer: Yes I think so and thus hard to keep at 10…. ok now taking the pups

MS: Coming up on 30 days to go…..when do we really start protecting ratios? Is that time now?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely now if you can. The standings are king from here on out so all decisions should be funneled through the filter of your standings more so than pure talent. That can lead to cutting some great SB asset for a middle power guy bc you’re set in speed but need everything else. This is also manifests in SP/RP overload and in Sept. you might see some legitimately good SPs hitting the wire if someone is going all RPs to chase SVs

Trap or Keeper: Hey Paul! Could you rank these keepers for AL only, obp? Schanuel ($4), Varsho ($4), J Polanco ($1), the Pasword ($10)?

Paul Sporer: I think that’s the rank w/the 2 $4 guys being a coin flip!

May Day?: I was never gonna start Dustin May @NYY, but should I be worried the Red Sox magic is wearing off?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely should be worried as I wasn’t fully sold before the NYY meltdown (which I agree we shouldn’t hold too hard against him bc we were never using him there). He can have good starts when he’s on, but the looming specter of a season-killing start is enough to keep me away.

Guest: Have a 9.56 ERA and 1.81 WHIP through 16 innings of this playoff matchup. Thanks Hoffman, Duran, and Ryan.

Paul Sporer: 🫂 gooood lort that’s painful!

Guest: Cam Schlittler turning into a 2026 draft darling?

Paul Sporer: Without a doubt. And depending how well September goes, he could be a full scale helium guy that maybe ends up going too high especially since Yankee Tax alone would assure he’s never hidden but yeah I’m super excited about his talent!!

Yordan not Yor-done!: With Yordan back, I need a CUT (AL daily OBP league): Meidroth, Password, India?

Paul Sporer: Gotta be Password bc playing time is king, especiallyyyy in deeper formats like that and he just doesn’t play enough compared to the others

Matt: Thoughts on Troy Melton as a 2026 spec add in dynasty? Thinking he’s got a) a rotation spot and b) fantasy relevance next year?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely love it. This RP shift is definitely tamping his value down for 2026 and I suspect he’ll make at least 1 of my first 2-3 Draft Champions leagues as a result. He might enter the season at the 6 or 7 but he could also easily make the rotation out of camp. The talent is insane, though, so I’m fully on board w/him. He might be more the darling than Schlittler if only bc of price difference.

Paul Sporer: Schlittler will be a sleeper/later round-type in 10s and shallower. Melton will be that in the deeper formats

bdubs: 12T, mixed, 4×4 traditional Roto
According to reports, Chourio returning perhaps by this weekend, who to drop? Anthony, Grisham, Carpenter, or LSosa (would move Altuve from OF back to 2B).

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s tough….

Paul Sporer: I think it’s still Sosa, but he deserves a shoutout for the sneaky strong campaign. He’s been a great fill-in piece in shallower formats where he’s no doubt bounced around the league while he’s been a superutility mainstay in deeper formats, qualifying at 1B/2B/3B (and thus CI/MI) w/17 HR and 60 RBIs in 436 PA and a solid .272 AVG, though just a .299 OBP. Still just 26 yrs old next year, Sosa has kinda stair-stepped his way up and I wonder if there’s even a tick or so more if he can wrangle 600+ PA next year.

Chip: Would you drop Will Warren for Tong with H2H playoffs coming up? Warren’s second-half performance hasn’t been great, and Tong struck out all of the minors.

Paul Sporer: Tong is fun & interesting, but I think I’m trying to hold Warren and maybe cut someone else? Warren’s 2H isn’t great in the aggregate, but it’s really just 2 bad starts – his 1st one outta the break and his most recent one. Even w/those, it’s a 4.04 ERA in the 2H, but the WHIP is a hideous 1.39. The 5 starts in between those 2 is a 1.93 ERA/1.11 WHIP.

It’s hard to know how Tong will be used. He just hit his IP count from last yr so I don’t see why they can’t just give regular starts, but rookies are SUCH a wildcard. The upside is rich, but the downside is of course severe. If Warren is your only cut, maybe let the schedules decide the choice. I’d give Warren the edge straight up, so Tong would need a markedly better schedule to overtake for me

Adenolith: Chasing ratios in a h2h cat matchup. Is Tong a good start next week? What about Lodolo vs Tor?

Paul Sporer: No rookie is ever a *good* start when you’re chasing just bc of their insane volatility. I don’t mind throwing him, but it’s super risky. I’m avoiding Toronto if I’m chasing or protecting anything pitching-wise. My aces still start v. them, but anyone outside a locked ace is hitting the pine

Kyle: Cam Smith has really been scuffling as of late. Typical rookie growing pains or is there some long term (dynasty league) cause for concern?

Paul Sporer: Almost assuredly just rookie growing pains. August is the dogs days for a reason and it’s particularly so for rookies taking that first 6-month MLB grind. Cam’s held his own and I’ll be happy to buy him up next year at what I believe will be a remarkably fair price. Still tons of upside IMO

Bruce: 2026 and beyond E Perez or H Greene?  (do the parks matter enough to bump EP?)

Paul Sporer: Parks do matter, but both are aces at their best. I needed to see more from Greene this year as a non-believer and I have seen it. I knew the HRs would regress and he’s survived it by nearly halving his BB% and not losing anything on the Ks. Eury’s excellent and it’s so awesome how quickly he got back on track this year from injury, but we still haven’t seen a 100-IP season outta him so I gotta go Greene.

Ben L: What’s your best advice for trying to chase close race in BA in the last month?  The small sample size is really unnerving.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Here’s what I’d be looking at if trying to stream AVG in a close race (whether picking up guys or making start/sit decisions): groundball/line drive hitters, friendly venues, and bad defenses that might be more apt to not to get singles in the holes. bad pitchers, of course, but that’s obvious.

the small sample sizes are super frustrating and it’s suuuch a brutal stat to track day-to-day bc the .100-somethings are so gut-punching. gotta just stick with your process and hope the hits fall. and also don’t freak out if you’re 10% K rate guy hitting .280 goes 0-4 while your 30% K/.220 AVG backup C goes 3-4 on your bench. process over results. you gotta put your team in the best spots to succeed based on the info we’ve got and then we go from there. Tough cat to manage/chase, but don’t give up. I think AVG is sneakiest late mover on the board.

Chris: What would you put as the odds that Tong stays in the rotation after Friday? or even in the big leagues?

Paul Sporer: 45 yes/55 no (of course he could leave & come back Monday for roster expansion lol)

Cristian Charity: Cristian Javier seems to be giving away free passes. Is he a hold in AL only or would an RP (Whitlock, T. Ferguson) be better?

Paul Sporer: RP might just be the safer path. Javier’s BB% has never been all that good even at his best, but it was 13% in his 35 IP last yr and remains there through 10 IP this yr. 45 IP still small but Javier struggling more w/BBs off injury isn’t at all surprising

Matt: Ottoneu, trying to decide my final start: Zebby SDP, G Williams SEA, Singer STL, Bieber MIL or Cameron DET. Can you rank these?

Paul Sporer: Think I’m goin Biebs, Cam, Gav, Singer, Zebby (not fully out on Zebby, just more worried about new look Padres)

Kevin: Is Edward Cabrera the real deal? Because he kind of seems like the real deal.

Paul Sporer: I mean this is the guy we chased for years. I’d definitely moved on and even advocated the Marlins sell high at the deadline (I stand by that), but he’s finally somewhat healthy w/his first 100+ IP season and he looks fantastic! With health, I have no doubts he can remain studly, but it’s that “with health” fueling all of my doubts/concerns. In short, I worry there’ll be a sharp rise in price that I’m not willing to pay for 26

Chris: Do you like Teel over Agustin in a 1C h2h league with the playoffs looming? Agustin has gone straight cold the past month

Paul Sporer: Gus has been icy in the 2H but can rip a multi-HR game outta nowhere, of course. I think Teel is the play in this case with a much higher floor of production for a single week expectation. If you advance and Gus gets hot in that time, maybe you flip, but next week it’s Teel

Matt: Picked up Messick. $1 in a dynasty league ($3 next year) and $1 in Ottoneu. I’m out of it in the former, but winning the latter. What are your thoughts on his potential for next year?

Bog: Is Parker Messick a command god? His Loc+ numbers so far are nuts

Paul Sporer: Command was his defining trait coming up so this isn’t just random. It is more of a 99th percentile production so far with a 2% BB & 120 Loc+, but I do believe in it as a carrying skill even as it smooths out. Think he will definitely contend for a rotation spot next year.

Oh Say Can Marsee: Any chance Marsee is worth keeping at $10 in a 5×5 NL Roto league?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure! I’m fully in the bag for him and drunk on the hot run, but even a sober look at him gets me to $10 easily in an NL only

Indecisive Fantasy GM: At this point, would you drop Wood or Langford for Seiya or Happ? Thank you!

Paul Sporer: 10-team?

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna assume 10-team w/Seiya & Happ available. This is the time of the year where name value goes by the wayside and big names can get cut if they just aren’t performing or get hurt and you’re out of IL spots. That said in your case specifically, both guys have emerged from their slumps lately, especially Langford and so I’m inclined to stick w/them.

Mi Casas es su Casas: Do a healthy Triston Casas or Royce Lewis have any 12T H2H categories value in 2026?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. These are great rebound types. Royce despite being around foreverrrr is still just 27 years old, still young enough to see the upside in if he can EVERRR spike a healthy season. Meanwhile, injury was the only thing to really derail Casas. He’d started slowed this year, but had a fantastic 127 OPS+ in 745 PA before that.

Eddie Levine: Play 0, 1, or both:  Alcantra at Mets or Strider at Cubs?  Thanks

Paul Sporer: Def yes on Strider, def no on Sandy

Matt: Your comment on “Yankee tax” got me thinking…anyone done analysis on this? I’d imagine you could probably do some format-specific projections ranking compared to ADP by team. Might be tough to incorporate some “upside” metric, but I’d be curious to see what teams get the most helium

Paul Sporer: I can ask Jeff Z if he’d have an easy way of executing such a thing. And it’s called Yankee Tax, but it isn’t just them, it’s really just blue blood franchises. Perhaps that effect has faded in the internet age and I’m sure it’s heavily mitigated in sharper leagues where all or most managers are player agnostic, but I’m sure there’s still plenty of it in home leagues where half or more are of the managers are more casual in their fandom. Maybe loving the home team and then a national game or two a week type… that’s where you can see name value for player & team likely having the bigger impacts.

MS: If you’re looking to protect (or maybe even improve) ratios a bit, is going RP heavy a good strategy? Seems like an RP blowup (I see you Jeff Hoffman) would have less negative impact at this point in the overall season

Paul Sporer: Yes, running with RPs can absolutely be a good avenue. Just make sure you don’t lose backend Ks/Ws as a result. But ya, if you can afford an extra RP or 2, that can certainly be a good strat. They can blow up like anyone as you mention w/the Hoffman outing, but they’re a better bet overall for ratios for sure

Chris: are you starting ashcraft vs stl tomorrow if you’re trying to preserve ratios?

Paul Sporer: Again, I’m unlikely to lean on a rookie as a means of protecting ratios, but I’m open to starting Ashcraft even in situations where I’m being careful of ratios. Rookies are ALWAYS high risk, but I like the risk/reward prop w/Braxton Ashcraft enough to run him

2B or not 2B: I’ve got a black hole at 2B this year, right now I’m running out Colt Keith as my starter. Should I hold pat? And as a back-up, who would you trust most: Gimenez, Cronenworth, O. Lopez or India?

Paul Sporer: No one reallyyy jumping out in that quartet of available backups so I’d probably layout the schedules and see there’s an advantage there to be mined. Can even include Keith in that mix and pick the best of the 5 based on volume of games, expected opponent SP quality, and venues

Steve: 12 Team AL-only – desperately trying to make a late push in Wins, ERA and WHIP – would you drop Shane Baz for either Mick Abel or Parker Messick?

Paul Sporer: For Messick, ya, Or honestly either, bc Baz is staring down the barrel of a 2-step at home next week and he’s been among the hardest hit by the park shift, toting a 7.06 home ERA compared to 3.59 on the road.

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, great stuff today, I gotta head out! September is when championships are won… have fun at your fantasy football drafts, but don’t forget your baseball teams. There is SOOO much movement in September standings and a lot can be done just by punching the clock and showing up to do the FAAB & lineups. Take care, y’all!