Paul Sporer Chat – August 31st, 2018

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon everyone!! Hope the day finds you well, let’s talk some baseball!!

Tony: Pick 1 to drop: Cody Allen, Kenta Maeda, Jose Alvarado

Paul Sporer: Allen

Farmer: What team has most impressed you this year?

Paul Sporer: Oakland. I picked them to make a wildcard spot, but that included Jharel Cotton & AJ Puk being instrumental and obviously they were done before the season started. Also impressed w/ATL & PHI staying viable all year

Mrs. Wojadubakowski: Paul, thanks as always. Last week, you were kind enough to advise keeping S. Gennett ($9) in my 12tm mixed roto keeper league ($260 budget). That said, I forgot I could have Matt Chapman for $10 also. Would you prefer Gennett or Chapman in this situation?

Paul Sporer: I would prefer Chap at near-equal cost. I’m a huuuge Chapman fan

Me, me, pick ME!: Kyle Tucker’s minor league numbers since being sent back down on 8/2: 463/532/940 in 16 games with 10 HR, 22 R, 24 RBI, 6 SB. I know he’s going to struggle for playing time, but damn. . . .

Paul Sporer: Ya the PT will be tight, but I think he’ll force his way in if he hits the ground running in Sept.

Shiny New Slider: Hi Paul, how much priority do you put on 2-start SPs in a H-2-H ESPN league where the playoff round last two weeks each? I have a couple of roster spots that I am using to stream mediocre 2 start guys (Ivan Nova and Jason Vargas this week, Mike Montgomery and Joey Lucchesi next week). Does that make sense, or should I focus on higher quality one-start guys?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s matchup dependent. If the 1-start guy is better and facing a good matchup, I lean toward him over a mediocre to weak 2-start. I don’t have hard & fast rules

Mark: What is going on with Carlos Correa? Do you think he will turn it around come September?

Paul Sporer: It’s been kind of a lost season, but I’m not quitting the profile. If he’s 100%, I can definitely see a Sept. surge

Dave: Competing for a title in 12-team, mixed, keep 5 players per year roto.  Pick a 2b for my bench for the rest of the way: Urias or Zobrist?

Paul Sporer: Urias!

Jim Leyland Palmer: Paul, what’s your take on the Candyman going forward over the next couple years? Do you think he’ll be a key part of the future or more just a regular during these rebuilding years?

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll be a solid piece of the team. Not a gamechanger, but a valuable mid-roster contributor

Tyrell the Real Deal: My baseball team sucks and fantasy football starts this weekend. That’s all, folks…

Paul Sporer: lol

Dave: Who do you like best rest of season, Musgrove or Minor?

Paul Sporer: Leaning Minor based on upcoming schedule

GoMs: When you get into this final month how willing are to drop struggling starters for hot players on the WW? Say for example, Mitch Haniger was 0 for his last 12 and had a tough slate of pitchers coming. Willing to drop and ride hot streaks for the final month?

Paul Sporer: I’m open to it depending on who I’m picking up. We talk about playing schedules with pitchers all the time, but I don’t think we mention it enough w/hitters

rays : Are you a Mallex Smith believer?

Paul Sporer: I buy the speed. I can see a .275 AVG baseline. I like that he can take walks to keep the OBP up, too

Jon: Do you think Shoemaker has any change of returning value once he comes back on Monday?

Paul Sporer: Nah, he’s pretty mediocre. Could get hot in a small sample, but I’m racing to get him

JD: Which SP do you like best as a streamer today: Framber, Gomber, Leake, or Brad Keller?

Paul Sporer: Valdez, Keller, Gomber, Leake

Farmer : The Rays were expected to lose 100 games, isn’t it remarkable and impressive everything they’ve done to be 9 games over .500?

Paul Sporer: They were? By who?

Paul Sporer: I feel like they’re always kinda mid pack and then their variance kinda decides if they’re a handful of games under or over

Sleeper Star: Do we see Sean Doolittle return (and stay healthy, and get saves) in the next three weeks?

Paul Sporer: Timeline says a week or so

Hugh: Was looking at my waiver wire for targets in 12 team 5×5 OBP league, to my surprise Chris Davis was the #2 FA hitter over the past 2 months. If you look at his rolling hard hit% he’s coming off one of his best stretches in years. Worth a flier over, say, Adam Duvall?

Paul Sporer: Over Duvall, sure

Dave: You were still a ROS Eddie Rosario believer last week… does his quad injury yesterday change things for you?

Paul Sporer: Injuries always muddy the waters and I could see a DL stint so I’ve lowered my outlook for sure

Adam: Are we at the point where matchups and short-term performance outweigh the stats someone’s accumulated to this point?  Asking for an Ozzie Albies owner.

Paul Sporer: Yes for sure, we need to be more short-term focused. I’m still not cutting Albies personally, but ya schedules & recent performance matter a lot more rn

Adam: Are you starting Ed-Rod and Paxton on Saturday fresh off the DL?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Larry Hutz: ROS in a H2H categories league: I have Kopech, Lucchesi, Cahill, and DRod at the back end of my pitching staff. Do I stand pat with them or drop one or more for: DeSclafani, Trevor Williams, Mike Minor

Paul Sporer: Depends on schedules tbh. Cahill has that wild home-road split and I usually don’t get tooooo crazy on home-road, but I think his merit attention

Jay: H2H playoffs next week and I’m evaluating 2step pitchers for the week.  What are your thoughts on Matt Harvey?  @PIT and home vs San Diego.  I’m debating between him and Reynaldo Lopez

Paul Sporer: Not sure who ReyLo has, but I like that setup for Harvey

Larry Hutz: My hitting is in rough shape for playoff time. I’m relying on Dahl, Cano, Renfroe and Morales to contribute currently (Judge on DL and I don’t think he’ll be helping me). Drop any of those for: Melky, Ervin, McNeil, or Eloy?

Paul Sporer: I like McNeil most of that group unless Eloy gets the call

Franmil Reyes: Where do you see his K-rate settling when all is said and done? 27% reasonable?

Paul Sporer: Ya he can shave it down to that

Dave: Looking for HRs/RBIs– Renfroe or Dahl?

Paul Sporer: Renfroe

Kevin wears a t-shirt to BP: Would you drop Billy Hamilton for Villar or Mondesi if you only need steals?

Paul Sporer: Mondesi!

Jay: Jason Kipnis or Adam Frazier going forward?  I was previously streaming Lourdes Gurriel at 2B but he’s been cold coming back from injury

Paul Sporer: Frazier

Reach: Real baseball question – how much do the Rockies suck? Not at baseball this year, but as an organization. How did they not claim Murphy or Cutch?

Paul Sporer: Don’t understand how they’re letting all these hitters go

Hal: How comfortable should I be starting German Marquez at Coors against mid tier teams such as San Fran? Think he will ace the rest of the way

Paul Sporer: He’s been incredible home & road, I’m starting him – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/8-second-half-sp-surgers/

CubFan: Do you think Laureano is a starter in Oakland’s OF next year?

Paul Sporer: He’s got a real shot, ya

Hal: How comfortable are you with starting German Marquez at Coors against mid tier teams like San Francisco? Will he ace the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: Don’t. Repeat. Questions.

Abomb: Paulino! What are your expectations for Donaldson when he comes back? I’ve got a Round 1 bye secured so I picked him up hoping to catch lightning in a bottle for the playoffs. Think there’s a good chance of that?

Paul Sporer: There’s definitely a chance, he’s a star talent. If healthy, he can rake for sure

Scott TINSTAAPP: Who do you like most for saves ROS?  Betances, Neris or Fry?

Paul Sporer: Fry. I like Betances most, but he’s sharing with many others

Peter: Who are a few of the best infielders most likely available on my 14 team roto league waiver wire? (avg and ops league)

Paul Sporer: Impossible to answer… just give me some names off your wire

CubFan: How concerned are you with McCullers forearm injury? I always get concerned thatTJ surgery is just around the corner.

Paul Sporer: Alway concerned with a forearm in any case, but especially concerned with someone with McCullers’ history

JD: I’ve got a playing time toss-up at my 2 util spots between Luke Voit, Todd Frazier, Wil Myers, and Marwin Gonz.  I’m leaning Voit and Frazier. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Myers/Marwin

Scott TINSTAAPP: are you diving back into Ohtani for the stretch run?

Paul Sporer: If he’s available, yes for sure

99: Stick with Tyler White or try to trade for Votto?

Paul Sporer: What’s Votto costing you?

Pine Needles: Eovaldi at CHW or Bieber vs TB?

Paul Sporer: Nate

PSporer FanClub: Any decent SP to stream on Sunday?  I may need a win to claim the wins category.

Paul Sporer: Lynn v DET? EJax v SEA?

Paul Spider: Hi Paul

Paul Sporer: Hola

Yojiveself: I dropped Tyler white for kendrys.  Should I regret that?

Paul Sporer: I prefer White, but it’s not SUCH a large gap that you should be freaking out

Mallex P. Keaton: Paul! ROS, best 12 team AVG+OPS league UTIL/bench power bat: Mancini, Sano, Renfroe? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Renfore

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: H2H playoff strategy question: better to use all bench spots for SPs/streamers (for more K/QS) or to have some offensive depth in case hitters get injured?

Paul Sporer: I try to keep a hitter or two for Mon/Thu off days (and injuries)

Bob Villar: Will Mejia play somewhere in San Diego in April or May 2019?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think so

Wildtsunami: Love all the chats, is there somewhere I can go to view the schedule for each week

Paul Sporer: Front page scroll down a bit

Paul Sporer: left side of page

Ron : Any chance Vlad gets a Sept look?

Paul Sporer: I still think there’s a chance even w/the AFL announcement. I’m holding another week

Adam: OBP league – which of the following OF/UT/BE guys are you dropping to bring Paxton back from DL:  Bader, Kole Calhoun, Renfroe, Tyler White (I’m leaning Calhoun, who seems a lot more mortal lately)

Paul Sporer: Ya I enjoyed Calhoun’s surge, but I’m leaning him, too.

Fredrick: Does David Paulino get a shot in the Jays rotation or is he bullpen bound?

Paul Sporer: I can see them giving him another rotation sht

Paul Sporer: shot*

Jay: Is this Grichuk heater enough to warrant dropping Brandon Nimmo for him?

Paul Sporer: I can see that. I think they’re close so play your favorite

Steve: Margot or J. Bauers ROS

Paul Sporer: I’ll take Margot

Ghost of Ned Yost: I’m head over heals in love with Jose Leclrec are you aboard the train!! I got shares everywhere and will be a big buyer in redrafts next year.

Paul Sporer: He’s been an absolute beast for sure. The only thing I’d say is don’t ignore the walks completely. We saw what happened with Knebel who also had fantastic K & H rates and a poor BB

Fredrick: If you could only keep three of these OFers in a 20 team points league, who would you pick?

Tommy Pham, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Randal Grichuk, David Peralta, Austin Meadows

Paul Sporer: Hmmm, that’s tough. Pham, Conforto, Peralta

CubFan: Continuing with McCullers…..would you throw a dollar or two at him for 2019 in a 12 team AL only 5×5 keeper league? He’s available via FAAB this Sunday.

Paul Sporer: Oh sure, if you can get him that cheaply in an AL only, I like it despite the massive injury concerns

Parts and Gleyber : Hi. Need obp and rbi: Melky or Reddick. Al only. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: See similar OBP rest of way, but lean Melky’s RBI upside

Sam: Elfin or Odorizzi ROS?

Paul Sporer: Eflin

Adam: Re: Votto, the OBP league I’m in considers him undroppable, so I’ve been stuck with him.  Are you still rolling him out there every day and hoping for the best? My other 1B/CI/UT eligibles are Aguilar, Kendrys, Tyler White, Gallo (playing him at 3B), Hoskins (playing him at OF)

Paul Sporer: It’s an OBP lg and he leads the NL at .418 so ya he’s still pretty easy to roll out in an OBP

Yojiveself: Who is this Philip Ervin cat?  Not much power in the minors but he has 4 Jack’s already in limited pt

Paul Sporer: Mentioned him on a trade beneficiary pod a while back – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-582-… – and he’s been pretty impressive

JS: Help me understand why the Rockies think they’re better with Matt Holliday instead of Raimel Tapia.

Paul Sporer: I wish I could. I don’t hate the idea of Holliday back in a vacuum as he seems to have something left in the tank, but they have options so with the Rockies specifically, it’s curious

Fred: NL Cy- Max Nola or DeGrom

Paul Sporer: It changes like every day for me lol. I’m leaning deGrom right now

Dave: Is Fiers someone you’re holding for now, or are you streaming/dropping and hoping you can pick back up (12 team league)?

Paul Sporer: I’m holding

zurzles: Pick up Tyler O’Neill in place of Inciarte or Myers? Not in need of too many SBs

Paul Sporer: Yes over Inciarte

Jay: I asked earlier about comparing Matt Harvey to Reynaldo.  Reynaldo’s two-step next week will be home vs. Detroit and Angels.

Paul Sporer: Hmmmmm…. they are sooo close. I’m leaning Lopez w/the 2 at home

In a close ratio race: Do you use Roark tonight versus Brew Crew?

Paul Sporer: I do and am, yes

Kyle: Can relievers be valuable enough to keep? Is keeping someone like LeClerc in the last round worth it (I only get 4 keepers in 12 team)?

Paul Sporer: I’d really rather not in a 12-team even at that cheap price

Jim Leyland Palmer: Do you have a comp for Daz Cameron?

Paul Sporer: A lesser version of his dad? Speed-focused, some pop, AVG deficient

Scott TINSTAAPP: Given Tyler White’s rise, do you think Gattis is a drop for the last month or a hold?  His PT just isn’t there right now (3 starts in 9 days)

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s out of bounds, at least with the C-elig., you don’t need as much PT, but I see it

B. Ryce Hammers Luscious Locks: Hey Paul! Sorry for throwing shade about your start time last week. You still rock! What do I do with Gattis right now? Catcher position is a pile of blegh on the waiver wire

Paul Sporer: You’re all good. I need to get it moved on the site bc I’ve been starting more often at 1 CT

Paul Sporer: And as I mentioned above, Gattis’ C-elig. is the only thing giving him a chance to stay on my rosters rn

Paul Sporer: If you have a waiver C you like more (maybe a T.Ward or D.Jansen), go for it

SparkyMcguffy: playoffs. H2H cat. I kill every pitching category, but my offense if terrible. What is my strategy to win? I just need to win ONE offensive one. I was thinking SBs. Right now I have Peraza, Merrifield….but they havent been running much lately. Thoughts? thanks!

Paul Sporer: In H2H cat, chasing speed is probably the way to go about it. Mondesi out there?

Scott TINSTAAPP: Soto or Acuna for ROY?  It’s the Childish Bambino Juan Soto for me!

Paul Sporer: Harrison Bader Tots 🙂

Paul Sporer: Kidding. I’m leaning Acuña, but Jeff outlined a very plausible case for Bader to be considered – https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/harrison-bader-rookie-of-the-year/

Lucas Giolito: What is going on with me? Trusting him down the stretch? (or even just against your Tigers next week?)

Scott TINSTAAPP: You trusting Giolito in NFBC 12 team where all pitching categories are tight?

Paul Sporer: He’s been awesome with skills to match. I think we’re trusting him.

cak199164: start Ryu or Eovaldi today in standard points league?

Paul Sporer: Eovaldi

CubFan: I’m betting Vlad, Jr and Eloy don’t get a Sep cup of joe since precedent has been set via Kris Bryant. And I’d even bet they don’t get called up till mid April 2019 at the earliest for the same reason……service time. The PR hit will blow over.

Paul Sporer: Ya this was set well before Bryant and will continue until the incentive structure changes for teams

HappyFunBall: Why am I still rostering Quintana? I’m terrified to ever start him …

Paul Sporer: If you’re terrified to start him, it’s time to move on

Guest: Nola and Severino bona fide aces for a keeper?

Paul Sporer: Yes, even with Sevvy’s blip

Breezy: I listen to your podcasts on 1.5x speed, and you put Snapchat filters on all your stories. I do not know the real you.

Paul Sporer: lololololol

Paul Sporer: I’m a giraffe with a high pitched voice

Guest: Judge done for the year?

Paul Sporer: Speculation is that the Cutch move means bad news for him

hscer: schedules with hitters: I thought Palka would be gold for the @ NYY series against Tanaka and Lynn. oops

Paul Sporer: I feel you. Even when we play the schedules, we’re only improving our probabilities, not getting guarantees

stever20: which pitcher throws more September innings.  Sale or Ohtani?

Paul Sporer: I’ll lean Sale

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!