Paul Sporer Chat – 8/3/18
Check out the transcript below!
2:34 |
: Hello everyone!! Thanks for coming out! |
2:36 |
: Better keeper going forward: Mikolas or Stripling? |
2:36 |
: I prefer Strip |
2:36 |
Mallex Smith a 10-team play for the SB-needy? : |
2:36 |
: If you’re starving, yes |
2:36 |
Jose Martinez in 10-team, right? : So we can move on from |
2:36 |
: Yes, he’s just not playing enough and wasn’t traded |
2:37 |
Joey Votto, right? : Okay to panic with |
2:37 |
: If you want, but what are you really going to do about it? The power hasn’t been there, but it’s not at all actionable |
2:37 |
: Of this group of new/fringe closers, rank in order of most likely to help my squad for ROS: Givens/Yates/Leclerc/Fry/Tepera/Clippard |
2:38 |
: Yates, Leclerc, Givens, shoot me |
2:38 |
: Andy Miller or Devniski for holds ROS? |
2:39 |
: Coin flip really. I guess I’ll go Devo since we haven’t really see Miller yet since he was just activated |
2:39 |
: Hey Paul, |
2:39 |
: hi! |
2:39 |
Matt Albers still 86% donuts? : Is |
2:39 |
: 88.2% at last update |
2:39 |
: Lemahieu or Odor ROS? (14 team roto with AVG and OPS) |
2:39 |
: Odor’s game yesterday was so insane. He’s been on one of late, I’ll take him. |
2:40 |
: Yo Paul. Love the podcast longtime listener back to the tower of power days. Anyway when can we expect August SP ranks. Need them for my trade deadline tomorrow lol |
2:40 |
: After this chat. Been agonizing over them all week and I apologize for being a few days later |
2:40 |
: I’m loosening the thresholds a bit bc the landscape is SO awful that I think you have to be more grateful for the boring guys like Porcello and Lester |
2:40 |
: How does it feel to be friends with celebrities (Bogman & Welsh)? |
2:41 |
: How much did you get to say that? |
2:41 |
: Orrr, are you the Welsh under a fake name? 🙂 |
2:41 |
: Who will be best return ROS in 5×5? Villar, Bader, the Dentist? |
2:41 |
: Bader! Not sure Villar runs in Baltimore |
2:41 |
: Traded Correa, CMart, and Taillon for Sevvy, K Davis, and Bichette in a 12 tm keep 10 forever. I have Machado to play SS and my aces (Kersh and Kluber) are old so I wanted a younger ace. Did I do ok? |
2:42 |
: Ya, it’s OK. I’d prefer the ace hitter over pitcher in a keeper deal like this, but your reasoning is perfectly fine and KDavis stays underrated. Is Bichette a free minors keeper? Otherwise, not sure you can justify making him a top 120 guy |
2:42 |
: Robbie ray is a top ____ pitcher for the rest of season? Thanks! |
2:42 |
: Speaking of agonizing over the rankings…. |
2:43 |
: Like 50ish. I ranked him solely on K accumulation this year and wish I’d have trusted my gut more and opened with like a 35-40 rank |
2:43 |
: What are you thoughts on Bumgarner vs Wheeler ROS? If I can gain value plus Wheeler, could Wheeler’s production be pretty similar? |
2:45 |
: I think they can be close, but I still favor Bumgarner. It’s MUUUUUCCCHHH closer than it was even a month ago, though |
2:46 |
: I’m on my way, should be there while you’re recording your podcast |
2:46 |
: YOU WERE ALREADY HERE THIS MORNING!! (pod out later!) |
2:52 |
: test… cpu was freezing, sorry about that |
2:52 |
Joe Musgrove (@COL, @SFG), Drew Pomeranz (@TOR, @BAL), Marcus Stroman (BOS, TBR) : in NFBC 12 team, you starting all these guys on two start weeks? |
2:54 |
: I want to vomit at that trio, espec. w/the matchups. I’d like to avoid ALL of them tbh. I think I’d rank em… open spot, a hitter, quit the league, Musgrove, Pomy, Stro |
2:54 |
: Do you believe in Hamels ROS? |
2:55 |
: To a degree, yes. And not just bc of the 1 start we’ve seen in CHI. I just think he can be hi-3s, lo-4s w/Ks rest of year which is a godsend in this pitching landscape |
2:55 |
: Whaddup paul |
2:55 |
: HALE! how’s it goin man? |
2:55 |
: Hey Paul! Who do you take between Heaney and Buehler next year, in a vacuum? |
2:55 |
: Buehler |
2:55 |
Starlin Castro or DJ Lemahieu for the final season push? Roto- avg and ops : Should I go after |
2:56 |
: Hmm, gimme Castro |
2:57 |
: My keeper league had a Machado-Kluber trade a month ago, and it just came out that the keeper rights for the players were retained by their original teams. There wasn’t any precedence for this type of transaction, so there’s a bit of confusion on how it should be handled. What is your take on dealing with transactions with questionable legality? |
2:58 |
: Wait, so they dealt MM (let’s say Team A) for Klubes (Team B), yet Team A can still keep Klubes and B can keep MM? So they’re trading them back end of season? That’s whack IMO, but without an explicit rule, I think it has to stand and then you can put a rule on it next year |
2:58 |
: Am I worth holding onto? I’ve heard I miss 3-4 starts but there’s gotta be a chance the cards shut me down right? 10tm H2H categories |
3:00 |
: Can you not DL him? If not, then I can understand cutting him. It’s that time of year where if you’re out a few weeks, you’re a cut candidate |
3:00 |
Nick Kingham or Fernando Romero? And if either gets the call, would you drop Weaver for him? : Paul – who do you think has a better chance of contributing (if either) in August and September – |
3:01 |
: Think we’ll see both back up at some point. I prefer Kingham b/w the two, but neither over Weaver |
3:01 |
: Just lost Pham in a 12 team mixed any sleeper replacements |
3:01 |
: No idea who’s on your wire |
3:01 |
: Where |
3:01 |
: here |
3:02 |
: I have no idea if this leads baseball, but Velasquez has taken 3 no-no’s into the 6th so far this year. Tonight he makes it 4. That is all. . . . |
3:02 |
: That’s interesting…. he’s got electric stuff so I’m not even shocked by that |
3:02 |
Kyle Gibson is back… weed whackin like crazy : |
3:02 |
: Where’s your pitcher rankings |
3:02 |
: After this chat, which is why we’re on a tight hour today |
3:02 |
: Thanks for your take on Bader and O’Neill on the pod. Sounds like you’re higher on Bader, but is O’Neill the pickup in an OBP & SLG league? |
3:03 |
: No problem! And yes in that league format, it’s O’Neill. Bader was my preference in standard cats. bc of speed, but OBP/SLG leans O’Neill. Like both generally speaking |
3:03 |
Homer Bailey resurgence after the DL stint? : Any reason to buy the |
3:04 |
: Slightly intrigued bc I’ve been a fan forever, but I can’t really go for him in anything but deeep leagues. Another good one or two and he starts to get some 15 and maybe even 12-team appeal just bc the landscape is so wrecked right now |
3:04 |
: Of course guys like Bailey are why it’s wrecked bc they give you 2-4 good starts and then ruin ALLLL of the good work with an 8 ER bomb |
3:06 |
: pham broken foot per rotoworld |
3:06 |
: or as Vlad Sedler said phractured phoot |
3:06 |
Max Muncy’s playing time? He’ll lose some 2B starts with Dozier in the loop, and he is in a bit of a slump (which is now quite poorly timed). : Worried about |
3:07 |
: Not really. Taylor is the big loser here |
3:08 |
: Start both Freeman and Acuna vs. deGrom or hedge and just go with Acuna? Seasons hangs in the balance of the next 3 days! Thanks Paul! |
3:08 |
Freddie Freeman……….. : Did you just ask about starting |
3:08 |
: did |
3:08 |
: that |
3:08 |
: just |
3:08 |
: happen |
3:08 |
: I’d start both btw |
3:09 |
Chris Taylor or Ian Kinsler? Position flexibility not a factor. CBS points league where K’s are negative points. : ROS for 2B…. |
3:09 |
: Leaning Kins bc as I mentioned earlier, Taylor is the biggest PT loser with Dozier going to LA |
3:10 |
Cody Bellinger ROS? : Over under .250/.850 AVG/OPS for |
3:10 |
: Over by a bit |
3:10 |
: Points league, ROS –
|
3:11 |
: Clev then Godley/Marco basically tied |
3:11 |
: How worried are you about Klubot? He came back insanely strong from injury last season but this time feels different. |
3:14 |
: Worried long term bc of that weak ass fastball but I think he’ll be fine ROS |
3:14 |
: Finally gave up on Zunino and traded to acquire Grandal. Approve? |
3:14 |
: For sure! |
3:14 |
Gregory Polanco made any real changes that you’ve noticed to spark this extended hot streak he’s on? : Has |
3:15 |
: Ya he’s definitely committed to power with a heavy flyball lean |
3:15 |
: You think you’ll ever bring the SP Guide back? Or gonna stick with fantasy black book? |
3:16 |
: I’m trying to map out this offseason to see if I can do it this year in fact |
3:16 |
: start Severino today? |
3:16 |
: Absolutely |
3:16 |
Tyson Ross Is a Must Start” this year’s “Trade Almost Anyone to Get Eric Thames Right Now” call? : Love your work, please don’t take this the wrong way. But–is “ |
3:17 |
: Not at all, tbh. It’s exactly why I update the SP ranks regularly and why pretending SP ROS rankings are useful is just stupid. I felt completely comfortable w/him as a must-start during those early months, he’s regressed and now isn’t that anymore |
3:17 |
: I added Villar in there because of this: Showalter asked if Jonathan Villar has a green light to steal said – “What’s greener than green?”
|
3:17 |
: Woo! |
3:17 |
: Traded Posey, Clevinger, and Nimmo for Stanton and ya boy Gibson in a 12 team redraft. seem fair? |
3:17 |
: Ya I have no issues w/that assuming needs align and all |
3:19 |
: Votto is 4th in the xwOBA leaderboards despite having the 23rd best wOBA. Can you explain this discrepancy? Has he been unlucky? Is it due to faults in the xwOBA calibration? |
3:19 |
: Elite plate skills and an uncharacteristic 10% HR/FB rate are likely the explanation |
3:19 |
: Any concern with Bryant’s shoulder in 2019 and beyond? |
3:20 |
: Always worry about shoulder injuries for power |
3:20 |
: Good time to pick up eloy u think he will be up soon |
3:21 |
: Ya I like speculating now bc once he’s called up, it’ll be a huge price surge |
3:22 |
: Gibson or Scherzer? |
3:22 |
: lol |
3:22 |
: Better ROS Bieber or Castillo? |
3:22 |
: Castillo |
3:22 |
: How do you best deal with punks who ruin the league by making unfair/fraudulent trades. |
3:22 |
: Boot ’em and undo ’em if they’re colluding |
3:22 |
Willie Calhoun can still be a sexy beast, right? Big 2019? : |
3:23 |
: Oh for sure and he’ll be priced to buy bc so many ppl freak out if someone doesn’t click instantly |
3:24 |
: Just lost Pham.
|
3:24 |
: Bader |
3:24 |
Max Kepler going to put it together – hitting RHP & LHP? : When is |
3:24 |
: Never? |
3:25 |
: I’m kidding, he’s just 25, but I don’t think it’s anything close to a guarantee. There’s definitely some upside and the fact that he’s doing some things vL this year is encouraging |
3:25 |
: Is Pomeranz droppable in 12-team dynasty with 50 roster spots? |
3:25 |
: I don’t think so |
3:25 |
David Price (AL only) vs. the Yankees this weekend? I know there’s no Judge, but still… : Would you start |
3:25 |
: Not if you don’t have to, I’m sitting him in my H2H |
3:26 |
Juan Soto next season? : Where do you draft |
3:26 |
: Top 75ish right now, but I can’t imagine I’ll get him at that pick. He’ll likely go Top 50 |
3:26 |
: forced to drop one – andujar or moustakas? |
3:27 |
: Keep Andujar if you need AVG and Moose if you need pop |
3:28 |
Jon Gray these days? : How are you feeling about |
3:28 |
: Still scared of Coors, but he’s a must-roster and someone ya gotta start more often than not bc of his skills and the ugly SP landscape |
3:28 |
: Hey buddy. Hope all is well. My Votto and Upton for his Freeman and Berrios a fair deal? |
3:29 |
: Hi! I’m doing well and yes this is fair |
3:29 |
: Not sure what you mean about Votto being actionable… Are you saying he should be dropped or started? |
3:29 |
|
3:30 |
Jake Bauers worth a pickup to replace Pham? : Cole Kalhoun or |
3:30 |
: switch that C and K and then pick up Calhoun! |
3:30 |
: Is there any strategy to use with these hybrid Rays pitchers? |
3:30 |
: Their best use is starts-capped H2H leagues bc they aren’t eating your starts and can give you 3-5 good IP w/a possible W |
3:31 |
Ian Happ or Paul DeJong? : 12 team NL only. Best for 2019, |
3:31 |
: They’re close IMO, I’ll go Happ |
3:31 |
: Hey Paul, you dropping Eflin for either of Rodon or Gausman? Thanks! |
3:32 |
: Rodon, I guess. The trio isn’t too far away, so ride the hot hand w/Rodon |
3:32 |
: I am highly tempted to cut bait on Haniger, he of the 1 HR since mid June, and stream that spot with guys like Calhoun/O’Neill/Pederson. Odds I’m going to regret this? |
3:33 |
: Odds aren’t that high that you’ll regret it and I’m cool cutting him for any of the 3. I’ll take em in your order listed. As much as I like Joc, he’s straight up platoon |
3:33 |
: I think your response to Pie assumes there is a period where trades are permitted prior to declaring keepers. If there is such a period, then the agreement makes some sense. If there is no such period, then it seems outside the rules? |
3:34 |
: I guess I’m just uncomfortable w/it being agreed to beforehand. What if Kluber needs TJ and the guy who got Machado now says he doesn’t wanna do the re-swap later or something like that? It just irks me a bit |
3:34 |
: How extreme do you get in Keeper trades fora potential win it all season. Is Kyle tucker too much to pay for someone like EE? |
3:35 |
: I’m all about winning so if I think the move does the trick, I’m open to it. If you need EE’s power to greatly improve your chances, I can get behind it. Do an honest assessment of your team and chances and go from there. I’d definitely put someone like Tucker on the block, though, if you haven’t, bc you could get something offered better than EE |
3:35 |
: Is Pham droppable now? |
3:35 |
: If you can’t DL him, ya I’d say so |
3:35 |
: My Upton for his Thor….Thoughts? |
3:36 |
: Didn’t you just lose Pham, though? Fair deal in a vacuum |
3:36 |
: Any underrated pitchers you expect to have a good to great ROS? |
3:36 |
: Don’t have names off the dome, but SP ranks out this afternoon |
3:36 |
: Why the Musgrove hate? Trending well… |
3:36 |
: Do I hate him? |
3:36 |
: Oh the 2-start thing… he’s going to Coors |
3:36 |
: Generally, I’ve been quite pro-Musgrove, but the at COL got me |
3:36 |
Chris Taylor ROS in a 12-team obp league? : You not buying Buck’s statement about Villar’s green light? Prefer him or |
3:37 |
: No that was a positive woo!, I’m in and I’ll take him over CT3 |
3:37 |
: I have josh Donaldson and Gary “king of bapip” Sanchez on the DL currently. Would you hold Martinez over one of them? Thanks! |
3:37 |
: Nah, hold the hitters |
3:37 |
: Patty V, you repeated your question 3 times… it’s not getting answered, my dude! |
3:38 |
: Who is your favorite player to pitch with in Diamond Dynasty? |
3:38 |
Mike Scott, Reliever: Alex Wood Flashback : Starter: |
3:38 |
: Have Cody allen, knebel, and Yates. Is Allen droppable for a streamer next week (prob Gibson)? Meepmorpzeep |
3:38 |
: Ya that works for me |
3:38 |
Aaron Nola for Mookie Betts. Should I pull the trigger? H2H Points league. During the two playoff weeks Nola has potential starts versus the hapless Marlins. Mookie would be replacing Odubel Herrera. : |
3:39 |
: I like the context inclusion and it makes Nola enticing, but I still gotta go Betts |
3:39 |
: Nice about SP guide possibility! All good whatever you decide, appreciate all the work pal |
3:39 |
: Thanks! I’m actually going to start working on things in September this year (I usually wait til Oct) and I think the extra month might create the opening to do our profiles here, Black Book, HQ capsules, and SPG |
3:39 |
: Kemp or Marisnick? |
3:40 |
: Kemp |
3:40 |
Max Kepler?! More like Max NotKeeperler, am I right? Hahaha…because he’s not good enough…to…keep…no one? Ok I’ll stop. : |
3:40 |
: lol #gotem |
3:40 |
Kole Calhoun or Ian Desmond ROS : |
3:40 |
: I’ve been buying Desmond all year just bc EVERYONE thinks he’s going to meltdown and he just keeps dominating in people’s faces. I get that his profile is weird as hell, but he’s producing like crazy |
3:41 |
: Do you stand or sit to wipe? |
3:41 |
: I lay down actually |
3:41 |
Kole Calhoun for real — or just ride the wave? How would you rank K. Calhoun, Avisail Garcia and Tyler O’Neill for my last Util spot? Thanks a lot : Is |
3:41 |
: Just ride the wave, and I’d rank em as you have em |
3:41 |
: Calhoun is definitely the main man of this chat lol |
3:41 |
: You probably already answered this but what has been wrong with Sevy? |
3:41 |
: Honestly, I can’t find anything that seriously worries me. Looks like a blip of poor starts as opposed to something serious |
3:42 |
: Should Bieber be untouchable (trade talk-wise) in a K/9, BB/9 league? Bat missing has been much better than expected |
3:42 |
: No, not untouchable. Desirable, sure, but definitely not untouchable |
3:42 |
Joc Pederson: new Seth Smith? : |
3:42 |
: Good comp |
3:42 |
: Pham phractured his phoot? Phabulous. I’m ph***ed. |
3:42 |
: :applauds: |
3:42 |
: What’s your favorite stat for analyzing fantasy hitters in a points league (i.e. wRC+, wOBA, OPS, etc) |
3:42 |
: Points scored |
3:43 |
: 😉 |
3:43 |
: Jokes aside, I don’t look at one single metric. I probably start with wOBA (bc I don’t need Coors neutralized down or AT&T neutralized up when assessing fantasy viability) and go from there |
3:44 |
: OK, y’all want these SP rankings so I gotta roll |
3:44 |
: Thanks so much for coming! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy baseball there. Have a great weekend! |