Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 14th, 2018

Paul Sporer: Hello everybody!! Sorry for the delay, but pod 600 needed my time and the band is back together with Justin and Jason joining me

Gloria Esteban Loaiza: Keeper time already??

Paul Sporer: Whattya mean? Like talking about them? Sure!

rpo: How do you value Aaron Hicks for next year? Top 100 guy?

Paul Sporer: Thereabouts, I *love* Aaron Hicks

MDN: What do you think about car mart for next year? Wondering what kind of price you think he should go for in drafts (5×5 roto) to decide on what kind of keeper cost is worth it for him. $10-20? >$20?!?

Paul Sporer: I’m still bought in, but I’m throwing him back at $20+

CW: Need to make up HRs by Sunday in H2H- start 3 out of 5- j Donaldson, piscotty, Dahl, votto, abreu. Obp league

Paul Sporer: Piscotty, Donaldson, Abreu … Dahl’s in SF and Votto gets 3 lefties

Jon: Tight WHIP/ERA race, but need wins. Trust Joe Ross next week?

Paul Sporer: Yes, let’s take the shot at MIA

RJ: Is Tucker Barnes or Taylor Ward the better C the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: I imagine that’s Tucker Barnhart and not Austin Barnes

Paul Sporer: I’d go Barnhart

Jay: I’ve held Max Muncy and am aware of the LHP’s he encounters the next two weeks. Is Freese a decent platoon partner there?

Paul Sporer: Yes, though Freese doesn’t get many lefties next week. He is holding his own vR, though

Scott TINSTAAPP: I know it is heresy to speak ill of Ozzie but since he’s cooled off, would you play Adames over him for the last two weeks?

Paul Sporer: I understand re: Albies, but I’m still riding w/him. Adames is just riding a BABIP surge the last few weeks

Kevin wears a t-shirt to BP: Would you be starting Wei-Yin Chen tonight?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s been really sharp since August 1: 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 36 K in 35 IP

Gloria Esteban Loaiza: 10-team OPS/QS league, $300. Keepers are +$5 every year. Choose 2 at next year’s price: Eaton ($7), Simba ($6), A. Rosario ($8), Mondesi ($7), ERod ($8), K. Tucker ($7), McCullers ($9)

Paul Sporer: So those are their prices next year or do I +$5 them? I love Mondesi so much so I’m down at $7 and probably even still good at $12 bc his speed. Hell, I might go Mondesi/Rosario and just lock up some nice speed at $15

Bob Villar: Tyler White going to be a guy worth owning next year?

Paul Sporer: In deeper leagues, but it really depends on his playing time outlook. We’re still dealing with a pretty small sample.

OddBall Herrera: Thoughts on Jesse Winker as a 12 team keeper asset?  The list of guys who walk more than they strike out is a pretty good one to be on.

Paul Sporer: He’s borderline bc he was showing some nice pop before the injury, but it’s a shoulder injury that could sap that power upon return. I’d need more info, but I can lean yes

Nails Dykstra Finishing School: Is Touki Toussaint getting another start for ATL or am I keeping him on my playoff roster for no apparent reason?

Paul Sporer: Doesn’t appear to be slated for a start despite a 7-game week for ATL next week

Hugh: What kind of marginal value for an SB in roto would you have to be looking at to make Terrance Gore rosterable for the next 2 weeks? Making up 3 SB would net me 4 points, and while that’s probably not enough it got me thinking about what would be.

Paul Sporer: if 3 SBs get you 4 pts, Gore actually is viable.

Ghost of Ned Yost: Odds the Tigers trade Shane Greene this offseason? I’m cruising to victory in a dynasty league and have began sitting on possible 2019 closers. Hicks > Knebel > Fry > Jimenez > Gsellman seem about right or are there other less obvious names out there that might be closing in 2019. I’m going to trying holding a closer sale this offseason to rebuild my farm system. Doesn’t much matter how valuable they will be just that they have the role.

Paul Sporer: Man, trying to guess closers for the next season when the previous one hasn’t ended is a fool’s errand. Tigers SHOULD trade Greene, but I’m not sure they’ll get much. I’d lean Jimenez as their guy

OddBall Herrera: Which direction would you lean?  This is the start of something big for Mondesi (15/50??), or this is the exact type of player who gets hyped to the skies in the offseason then embarrasses the people who invested in him (18% SwStr!)

Paul Sporer: He’ll get hyped for sure, but I’ll be part of it. I’m obsessed with him bc I love major speed that has some punch with it. The thing is, if he gets to 30 SBs, it’ll be hard for him to be a total flop and barring injury, he’ll coast to that

Bob Villar: Mondesi or Lemahieu rest of year?

Paul Sporer: Mondesi

BBQJerry: 10-team H2H RP-eligible Framber Valdez lined up for two starts in championship week against SEA and LAA–both dreadful versus lefties.  Worth the risk, or go for waiver wire closer like a LeClerc?

Paul Sporer: Is it a points league? Bc I’m just not sold that Valdez will give you great starts given his skills (love the GB% rate, but little else right now). I’d lean against unless it’s pts

JD Drew Detective: Starting Eflin tonight vs the Marlins? Need K’s and ratios that aren’t murder to look at .

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think you gotta take shots v. MIA w/any halfway decent SP

Billy Bathhouse: Why haven’t we seen Austin Meadows called up yet?

Paul Sporer: I think bc Durham is in the playoffs

Scott TINSTAAPP: I’m gonna be in Arizona the weekend of the AFL Championship Game…can’t wait!  Any suggestions for places to eat/drink/do when visiting Phoenix area during AFL?

Paul Sporer: I think there are some good breweries out there. Do you have Twitter? I’d recommend hitting up @enosarris and @isitthewelsh for recos on those as Eno is the beer guy and Welsh lives out there. I always eat at basic bitch places lol

Moelicious: Keep one for 2019: Altuve, Bregman or Yelich

Paul Sporer: Maaannn, really can’t go wrong. I’m leaning Bregman

zurzles: I’m only allowed one more pickup in the first round of the playoffs. My only path to victory is taking SBs (losing 6-4) and saves (losing 7-5). I don’t need another starter. I was going to pick up either Alvaredo or Jankowski (facing Chirinos and his crap arm this weekend). But…. Stripling is available, and he just got moved back to the rotation. And if I don’t get him someone else will. I’m probably not going to win this round but he’d put me in a better position to win next round (and money). What do I do?

Paul Sporer: I understand the allure of Stripling, but what good is he if you don’t win this round? Do you have SB/SV assets who can reasonably close those gaps this weekend? I guess that’s the assessment you have to make to determine whether you chase one of those or get Stripling

King Donko of Punchstania: Keep Pham at $7? 11-team OBP

Paul Sporer: Yes

OTR: I just scooped up Brinson in my Dynasty league. He’s been hitting better of late. Can you see a breakout of some sort coming next year? Brinson or Dahl for 2019?

Paul Sporer: Yes, Brinson was a widely touted prospect, but he’ll be a forgotten man after this brutal ’18. I still think there’s upside in a guy going into his age-25 season with a diverse skill set. OF should open up to give Dahl a full time role next year, though, and I still lean Coors so I’m gonna go him in this 1 v 1

micah: Thanks for the chats, Paul! Do you see any especially sneaky value plays for saves ROS? I’m looking to trade for a closer or two who should get a good number of saves this last month but might not be valued as a top tier closer by their owner.

Paul Sporer: Hey no problem. I haven’t been as locked into save situations down the stretch bc the few lgs where I’m chasing a money spot have SVs settled, so I’d recommend the Bullpen Report for that: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/category/bullpen-report/

BO: Is Odor’s hot streak dead and gone? It’s been a somewhat slow 3-4 weeks.

Paul Sporer: Well he had to come down from his 2-month run

Hugh: Are you dropping Schoop in dyansty roto? Feels like every time I convince myself it’s time he gets hotter than the sun

Paul Sporer: In dynasty? That’s tough. I gotta hang on there

Kevin wears a t-shirt to BP: Would you beat Willians Astudillo in a race?

Paul Sporer: No way, he’s a stud

Scott TINSTAAPP: can you rank this poo poo platter of two start guys for next week? Framber (SEA/LAA), Keller (PIT/DET), Suarez (SD, STL)

Paul Sporer: Keller, Framber, Suarez

BO: Keller (@PIT @DET), Miley (CIN @PIT), or Suarez (@SD @STL) next week?

Paul Sporer: in that order you listed

Parts and Gleyber : Congrats on the 600!

Paul Sporer: Thanks! Coming out soon!

Arms: Love ya man but can you explain why you hate Shane Bieber so much? In your chat last week you said he won’t be a top40 arm next year? IMO he’s atleast a top30 arm. Dude is legit

Paul Sporer: Top 30 is soooo lofty. Sure, it’s *possible*, but saying he’s *at least* that is crazy to me. He’s a hit machine. It’s not just happening to him, he peppers the zone w/hittable pitches. Dig the Ks and he doesn’t walk guys, but there’s a lot of work to be done before he’s top 40 let alone 30

Kyle Gibson’s Landscaping CO.: Is Mikolas getting 2 starts for sure next week? He was dropped in my league and I could use one for the playoffs next week

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s slated for it with a start on Monday

JohnJacob Jingle…: In a 5×5 Roto Keeper League, who would you keep between the two: Carlos Carrasco or Zack Greinke?

Paul Sporer: Probably going Carrasco

Iggy Pop’s Raw Power: Stream Mike Minor or Shane Bieber Sunday? Need to protect my ERA/WHIP lead while competing for W and K against an opponent with lots of SPs. 1 add left this week so it’s the Final Countdown (keyboards).

Paul Sporer: Can you use both against their lame matchups? I’ll lean Biebs

Parts and Gleyber : Rolling dice on shoemaker in al only tonight vs. Sea. Barring disaster, will want him vs Oakland next week?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m going for it in AL Only

Bill Hall & Oates: Starting Flaherty vs. Dodgers or Gio Gonzalez vs. Pirates?

Paul Sporer: Flaherty, just go for the better SP

Jake Junis Priest: I know Correa has been rough, but it would be crazy to sit him for Jorge Polanco right? I need obp and rbi. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: We actually discuss sitting/cutting Correa in the pod coming up soon. I can sit him for Polanco rn

Moelicious: 40 HR for Franmil next year?

Paul Sporer: 2 guys have 40 HRs right now and like maybe 6-7 will get there by season’s end, so no I’m not tabbing Reyes for that many

zurzles: Stripling would basically be for next round. 3rd place wins money, 4th wins nothing. I have an underperforming Hamilton/Dee Gordon/Inciarte for bags and I picked up Gore and Wendle this week. Saves are Diaz/CMart/Gsellman/Fry/Hader (occasionally). Not great.

Paul Sporer: You have enough guys to get SBs for sure. So it’ll basically be Alvarado v. Stripling… take your shot with Stripling

Willians A-su-su-studillo: Eno-not-Eno seems curious about Jorge Lopez in KC (even before the near-perfect). Are you interested in an AL only ROS? Hunting wins but WHIP also important. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I was huge on Lopez with Milwaukee and then he was just trashed in Colorado Springs (their AAA affiliate) and kinda fell off the map. So I share the interest

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Mallex Smith is a top __ OF next year.

Paul Sporer: At least 40. I think he at least puts up Hamilton’s shitty season from this year

Troy M: Reynaldo or Giolito going forward in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: That’s just personal preference IMO. I lean Reynaldo

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Quintana is on a nice run lately. Would you roll with him on Sunday vs. CIN?

Paul Sporer: Ya, let’s go with it

Jay: Need QS and Ks. You rolling out Tyler Anderson? Kevin Gasman?

Paul Sporer: Ya Anderson gets two roadies, so go for it. I’d start both, tbh.

Pall Mall: Drop B. Dozier at this point?  He seems part time and not playing well to boot!

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. Cut him a couple weeks back in my 10 teamer

Freak Show: Drop Dozier for Mondesi??  Others available too.

Paul Sporer: Si

Rick: Should I start Benintendi tonight?  He’s been awful lately and faces Thor….

Paul Sporer: I’m not sitting Beni

Ryan: Pick 2 of 3 to start: Aaron Hicks, Tommy Pham, Cody Bellinger

Paul Sporer: Sitting Bellinger right now

Jack: How do you feel about starting Gio and Shoemaker tonight?

Paul Sporer: Good with both

OddBall Herrera: Bieber is going to burn a lot of owners who just look at his ERA vs FIP and assume regression to stardom is imminent.  Living in the zone w/o dominant stuff is a recipe for that disparity being true talent.

Paul Sporer: Totally agree. He’ll consistently tease without improvements

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Quick Willians Astudillo update: out of the lineup and getting piggyback rides in the dugout

 

Aaron Gleeman

@AaronGleeman

 

Willians Astudillo wasn’t in the Twins’ lineup tonight. Let’s see what he’s up to in the dugout.

14 Sep 2018

Paul Sporer: lololol

Ghost of Ned Yost: Sano droppable in deeper leagues if he hasn’t played by Sunday’s NFBC faab?

Paul Sporer: yes

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Would you drop E. Rosario to grab any of Schebler, Renfroe, Kiermaier, Cave, Bauers, Dahl?

Paul Sporer: I’m good cutting him

Paul Sporer: As for who to pick up, just not Bauers lol… otherwise analyze the schedules

Wes : Cut Bader? 3 swipes in last two weeks is good, but .560 OPS is very bad.

Paul Sporer: And bats lower third, I’m OK w/it as much as I like him long term

Paul Sporer: Sorry had to take Charlotte out and it’s raining so she hated every second of it

Freak Show: Need a 2b.  Dropping Dozier….Mondesi, schoop, dejong, or kinsler…..

Paul Sporer: Mondesi as mentioned above

Scott TINSTAAPP: I hear your stance on Bieber, but in my keeper league we are 6×6 with K/BB and that gives Bieber a huge boost

Paul Sporer: Definitely helps

Tom: Is the Judge activation just …  bizarre?  Never seen a guy activated even when he admittedly is not ready to hit before.

Paul Sporer: Yes especially a guy like him… like wtf wants him to come back to RUN?!

Freak Show: Is Bellinger a drop for someone like Renfroe, dahl, or desmond?

Paul Sporer: Nah, not a drop. Surely you can cut someone else… OK with benching him for a spell, though

another bad dynasty manager: In deep leagues, do you like Hunter Dozier?  He appears to be knocking the snot out of the ball, according to Statcast.

Paul Sporer: I’ve been sneak tip watching Dozier for a few years now bc I was tipped off by a prospect maven on him years ago that he just MASHES and we are seeing it this year with his batted ball profile. I do like him and I think he’s a great late-rounder next year

Warning Track Power: Think Trout is an Angel for life?

Paul Sporer: 25% chance. Still think he’d like to get back East, but if they put 10 year/$425 mil on the table, that’s so hard to turn down

Slurp: Danny Jansen, 20 team dynasty league. I’m gonna have to make a choice on Jansen this off-season, whether or not to extend at a top 6 catcher price. I’m a little worried that despite good hitting so far (110 wrc+) his value will be supressed due to lack of HR power + not great lineup (runs + rbis). On the other hand, he’s crushed minor league pitching the last 2 years… am i overthinking this?

Paul Sporer: I’m so suspect on prospect catchers. What does a top 6 catcher price look like? Seems to rob the value of having a young C bc he kinda has to perform at that point, no?

Sum: thanks for chatting, Paul! which side of Stratton/Anderson do you like tonight?

Paul Sporer: Prefer Anderson despite his recent struggles

Kev: God Paul, you pick the worst/easiest questions to answer. Do us all a favor and sign off. You’re wasting our time.

Paul Sporer: Or you can leave

Paul Sporer: Imagine having such a terrible life that you send a message like that, so hilariously pathetic.

The Old Buccaneer: Where do you see ranking Taillon and Archer for next season?

Paul Sporer: Top 30 for Taillon, top 40ish for Archer

Scott TINSTAAPP: lol Kev chill bro

Paul Sporer: Douches gonna douche

Willians A-su-su-studillo: Do you think Nate Jones gets saves ROS? Will the White Sox as a team get any saves ROS?

Paul Sporer: No he won’t get any and yes they will get some

FLORENCE: Paul, I’m in NC.  It’s rainy. I might not have electricity for a couple days and need a lock. Which batter will bring the rain this weekend? Multiple dingers preferably.

Paul Sporer: JD Martinez and Michael Conforto in that same series

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I do have to get going. Going to edit & post the pod. Thanks so much for coming (except Kev, you’re very sad)! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight and playing a co-op game w/my gf, so come through. Have a great weekend!