Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – October 6th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Chat time! It’ll be a little shorter this week, but I didn’t want to skip entirely!

Andrew: I have 4 possible keepers and can only keep 3, which of these players would you keep for next year? Javy Baez (Round 11), Spencer Torkelson (Round 21), Teoscar Hernandez (Round 10), Marcus Semien (Round 12)

Paul Sporer: It’s down to Baez v. Tork for me. I think the 10 rounds are enough to take the gamble on Tork despite him having not debuted yet. He’ll likely go higher than rd 21 if thrown back so let’s go w/him!

chilly: something about rengifo that i really like.  is bat speed something thats measured here at FG?  something about that left handed swing i really like.  anyways, u feel he could breakout next yr ala josh rojas this yr?  nothing crazy but solid streaky.  or u think laa will continue playing 30yo like mayfield, gosselin, etc

Paul Sporer: No I’m with you on liking him a bit. He’s shown strong plate skills in the minors and while we haven’t seen them pay dividends in the majors yet, he’s still quite early in his career (700 career PA). Playing time should definitely be available for ’22 as well

Henry: How about them Sox!

Paul Sporer: Respect to the Sox. I had them missing the playoffs after the trade deadline and they not only made it, but won the WC game. I still don’t trust their pitching for a series, but I’ll take my L on predicting them to be out of the playoffs altogether, I was wrong!

Rickey H.: 12 team league, only allowed three keepers but keep forever.  After Acuna must choose from Cole, Semien, Mullins and Castellanos.  Assuming Semien lands in a neutral or positive hitting environment, he seems like a definite.  Prefer not to keep pitchers so maybe trade Cole and keep Mullins? Or is Castellanos better bet to retain value?  Or just bite bullet with “elite SP” in Cole?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’d keep Mullins and Semien. Three guys w/power & speed laying a great foundation for your offense & then you can buy your pitching at the draft table

Steve: Projections for Yordan Alvarez next year?

Paul Sporer: Not really going to veer far from the .270s-30-100 of this year. He’s a monster and still has upside, too

Henry: Can we talk about the fact that the #1 team in the AL is starting rookies in both game 1 and game 2, and also their lineup may have the Rookie of the Year AND Wander Franco.

Paul Sporer: Double barreled Shanes off the top! This team is just so fully loaded and they still have studs in the minors who haven’t debuted yet or barely got going (Brujan)

chilly: 1-10 w 10 being catastrophic how concerned should a bieber owner be concerned?  gotta bad feeling he benefited a lot from the sticky.  he was topping out at 91 and all over the place these last couple starts.  or chalk it up to maybe coming back too soon for the sake of coming back.

Paul Sporer: I’d be around a 4 max. It’s hard to make too much of the 3-IP stints to close the year. I’m sure the sticky stuff helped, but I don’t think it created him out of whole cloth. I still like Biebs as a frontliner (top 12-15, not exactly sure where I’ll have him for ’22 yet)

Four Square: Keep Correa or Reynolds in a 10 Team keep forever league with OBP, K, R, SB, HR, RBI; three OF, 2 UTIL, no MI or CI slots. My other keepers are Trout, Machado and Marte. I have a hard time trusting Correa to stay health another year, but am hesitant to keep three OFs.

Paul Sporer: I’d lean Correa. I know he’s had some injury years, but I still see him as a better fit for you here. He’ll almost certainly be on a new team and I desperately hope it’s my Tigers, but regardless I think he’s a lock 25-85 even on a lesser team w/30-100-100 capability and plenty of AVG upside

BringBackDeSpanielHair: Very sad Yankees fan here. Sick of them not going and getting the goods in the offseason. They had money and didn’t spend it, and we ended up in a wild card game in Fenway… with Brett Gardner starting in center!

Paul Sporer: Frustrating season if you’re a Yankees fan but it’s not a full teardown. I don’t think getting rid of Cashman is the right move, though I suspect Boone will be fall guy’d (not sure that’s right, either, tbh). The team isn’t bad, especially as a collection of a talent, but how that talent meshes isn’t great so they need to re-work the way the talent fits together (fewer all or nothing hitters, more athleticism and defense).

BringBackDeSpanielHair: On a less dismal note, Buster Posey is still playing baseball!

Paul Sporer: And doing so very well! I love that Posey exploded this year. Hard not to wonder how much the season off helped. We’ve seen it with running backs in NFL missing a yr in their 30s only to return like they’re mid-20s again. I wonder if we’ll ever see that incorporated as a thing. I’m not sure how it’d work exactly as guys aren’t going to WANT to take a year off just for fun, but I have to think it’d prolong careers more often than not

chilly: u feel sheets and vaughn have done enough to each get 500abs in the corners next yr?  decent bb reasonable ks, nice ev.   or u think old school T will have yermin flashbacks and encourage some vet acquisitions

Paul Sporer: Vaughn is a lock IMO and I’ll be targeting him everywhere. Sheets is someone I really like but I’m not sure he’ll be gtd the playing time. I think he has great pwr and strong plate skills so if they can find 450+ PA for him, he has some deeper league value for sure. He’ll be a reserve pick for me in many lgs if he is tracking to make the team

Guest: Adolis Garcia or Jared Walsh for next season?

Paul Sporer: Walsh. Garcia has like a 22/15 floor w/600 PA, but will Texas guarantee the 29 yr old that much PT if he plays like the June 1st & on guy? (.667 OPS, .224 AVG) I just think the downside from Garcia is cutting him in May whereas Walsh is a legit 30-100 guy to me (basically got there this yr at 29-98) and I believe in him. He had a brutal July, but closed brilliantly w/an .876 OPS, 7 HR after he returned from the IL in mid-Aug (191 PA over 47 gms)

Guest: Are Trout and deGrom top-10 picks next year?

Paul Sporer: Not guaranteed, no. They will go there at times, but their range is like 6 to 15

Go Yankees!!!!! 🙁: What round does wander go in next year?

Paul Sporer: 3rd/4th

Paul Sporer: 2nd if he goes offff in the playoffs

Don: Do you mind non-fantasy questions?

Paul Sporer: No problem at all!

Paul Sporer: Anything baseball-related works, I often field MLB The Show questions, too. Baseball and even some pop culture (movies, tv, music, etc…) works

Pat Listachio: Oneil Cruz. No question. Carry on.

Paul Sporer: Speaking of MLB The Show, he had a card in the gm last yr that was awesome so I’ve become a fan of his via the video gm and now can’t wait to see how he does next yr in Pittsburgh. I’ll definitely write about him at some pt in the offseason

Paul Sporer: BTW, quick FYI that there won’t be a guaranteed chat every Wednesday in the offseason. Still going to do plenty, but there will some Wednesdays I have to skip.

Guest: Where would you rank Gerrit Cole among SPs, given his uneven second-half (post-sticky stuff bad) performance?

Paul Sporer: Still top 5 for sure

Four Square: Do you think Jesse Winker can repeat his performance in 2022? He looked like a top 10 outfielder for most of the season.

Paul Sporer: Yes, but I wouldn’t extrapolate it over 600 PA or anything. I think he will remain a stud on a per PA basis, but injuries and ineffectiveness vL will continue to curb his volume

Curtis: Using the 25 man roster from game 162, which “Mariner” will have the highest ADP next year?

Paul Sporer: Haniger & Kelenic will be v close IMO

JC: Which Astros starter do you like most for next year?

Paul Sporer: I’m still an Urquidy superfan, buuuuttt we still haven’t seen him fully cash in his SwStr% abilities into K% goodness so I’ll slot McCullers just a bit higher. The big 4 – Urq, McCullers, Framberto, and Luis Garcia will be ranked close together. I’m still on Cristian Javier, too, even though he never regained a spot in the rotation in the 2H as I continued to project

Henry: Who do you think should be the #1 pick next year?

Paul Sporer: Trea Turner or Mookie Betts would likely be my pick at 1. Tatis, Ohtani, Soto are valid #1s, too. It’s the most open it’s been in a while at the top

Z: heya Paul, within a 5×5 OBP context, who do you like to repeat or even exceed their 2021 production in 2022: Riley, Votto, Mullins, Reynolds? Thanks

Paul Sporer: Mullins, Riley, Reynolds, Votto.

Guest: Is daily fantasy more a game of skill or a game of chance?

Paul Sporer: In a single day, chance plays a huge role. Over the long haul, skill absolutely matters.

chilly: unless he goes to the best D team in the league, is kluber now a 4.50 era 4-5ip sp?  i have a ton of keepers in the league i own him but i have the ’22 option to promote ashby, sheets, brash in his spot.  position is not a concern

Paul Sporer: Yes, he is. Hard to see him getting back to his premium level at this juncture. I love Ashby and think he can definitely break out next year

Kate: How do you think the Brewers handle Ashby in terms of usage next year?

Paul Sporer: A hybrid role wherein he starts as in the pen as a multi-IP guy and then gets a chance to start in the summer

the bazman: Assuming the rays let him be a 5-6ip per start guy, where will shane baz fall for you in starting pitcher ranks and what kind of full season numbers do you think he’ll put up?

Paul Sporer: I will have an SP list out this month (ideally next week, but giving myself a bit of leeway) so I don’t have a locked in notion on where I’ll slot Baz, but top 60 feels right. I’d use McClanahan’s ’21 as a guide on Baz’s 22. I see 120-140 IP w/big Ks and solid ratios

Guest: Jonathan India–potential to be a top-5 second baseman?

Paul Sporer: Frankly I’m surprised he wasn’t this year. He slotted 11th despite a fantastic season. He could push up there, but I’d be sooo thrilled w/a ’21 repeat

Kate: Are Benintendi’s days as a base stealer over?

Paul Sporer: The 8-for-17 is roughhhh. KC lets players run, but they can’t just let someone run wild at that kind of rate. He’ll be 27 next yr and could definitely spike another low double-digit season, but I wouldn’t bank on more than 5-6 in terms of projection

Don: Pop culture it is. I’m not sure about your taste, but if it aligns with Mulholland drive, in the mood for love, and/or lost in translation, any suggestions for after work?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t seen In the Mood for Love, but like the other two. My movie consumption has been in theater of late, so if you’re looking to stay home, I’ll hit the viral recommendation w/Squid Game (which I myself just started).

Don: Maybe a band you like too? Or any music you like

Paul Sporer: I’m a big fan of hip hop and I just saw one of my favorites, Freddie Gibbs, at ACL this past weekend so I can’t recommend him enough

Guest: Will Nick Senzel ever be fantasy relevant?

Paul Sporer: I meeeean I don’t wanna say never because there’s only downside in being that strident, but he has to show something at this pt before I’ll buy in and if that makes me too late, then so be it

Kate: xStats kind of hated Arozarena this year.  Any worries heading into next year?

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t get too bogged down in the xStats stuff. I think we (the fantasy community) are too binary w/it where if it’s not elite, it’s bad. And there’s also some overlap w/the stats but then ppl wanna cite all five or six of the overlapping stats as individual issues about the player. Arozarena still hit the ball pretty hard, has good enough plate skills, and seems motivated to be a 15-20 SB guy (no doubt wanted that 20 w/3 in the final wknd). There’s upside for more bc he’s still just 27 and finding his footing, but nothing in the low xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and K% percentiles tell me there is big trouble.

Someguy: What do you think of Ranger Suarez for next season? Do you think he can manage to keep similar numbers over a full season, or is he more like 80-90% of that?

Paul Sporer: I want to investigate him more. I have a soft spot for these small sample studs at times and I’ve fallen into potholes w/it before so I’m gonna hold off on a definitive take before diving in on him. There is a lot to like, but it’s 106 IP spread between starting & relief. No question the work he did was GOOD and backed by his skills, that’s for sure, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he can and will be that guy going forward and I think that’s where we can make mistakes.

Four Square: Was 2021 the oft predicted beginning of the end for Nelson Crux? His .357 xwOBA is by far the lowest since 2015.

Paul Sporer: Really seemed to be isolated to his TB time and home at that (.603 OPS at the Trop). Did he have issues seeing clearly like Willy Adames or is it the start of his demise. I’m not ready to say the latter. Plus, he always runs cheap enough to give you leeway on his production. He doesn’t have to stay great to be worth his pick usually. He can simply be solid.

Guest: You like Austin Riley or Tyler O’Neill better for 2022?  Does it maybe come down to Riley’s extra positional flexibility?

Paul Sporer: I think the speed gives it to O’Neill. There is still some high end volatility because of his plate skills being prone to slumps, but it’s not enough to cancel out the double-digit speed upside.

Guest: What kind of odds could I have gotten before the season on S. Perez leading the league in HRs?  (And is there anyone you’d consider drafting ahead of Perez at catcher in 2022?)

Paul Sporer: I can’t even fathom the number, especially since Cs play less there odds would have to be higher

Paul Sporer: I’m not paying the Perez tax. I’d rather take Realmuto on a rebound, tbh

Deathclaw: You nailed the Tommy Edman SB prediction! If he can up his average a bit he would look a lot like Whit Merrifield.

Paul Sporer: And he has the skills to get there AVG-wise. Doesn’t really K (14%), but a .291 BABIP definitely held him back. I wonder if that was an issue of his or simply some bad luck. At any rate, I remain a fan of his for ’22

MFG1975: Andy Ibanez looked like freaking Wade Boggs in the box scores the last couple months. What to make of him for 2022?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he hit .313 in the 2H and ended w/a 7-gm hitting streak. He makes a ton of contact and it was paying dividends in that second half (.366 BABIP), but there isn’t much pop and no speed to speak of, so it’s kind of like a Luis Arraez-type profile?

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!