Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – October 19th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Gooooood morning (for me, at least), everyone! Eno is a little under the weather so I’m filling in!

hscer: so what do you got that eno don’t

Paul Sporer: Health, currently

RonWeasley: Edwin or Jake Lamb next season?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Rake Lamb, maybe ’18 is the year he dominates for a whole season instead of a 2H swoon again

Jaime: Any Padres worth drafting next year?

Paul Sporer: Hand, Myers, Lamet, Margot, Renfroe, Perdomo

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Nationals starting catcher in 2018 is:
A. Jonathan Lucroy (sign)
B. Welington Castillo (sign)
C. Miguel Montero (sign)
D. Yan Gomes or Roberto Perez (trade)
E. Salvador Perez (trade)
F. JT Realmuto (trade)
G. Other
H. Matt Wieters (in-house option)
I. All of the Above
J. A, B, C, D, E, F, or G and definitely not H

Paul Sporer: I really think Lucroy would be a good buy-low for them

Greg: Michael Wacha – 4.13 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 5.21 DRA.

Paul Sporer: I can’t quit that dude, so I’ll probably invest on the cheap again next year

Jalepeno Hannah: Betts or Judge next season (linear weights league)

Paul Sporer: Betts

Don Mattingly: How do you start Granderson, Ethier, Utley, and Grandal in a game that can clinch a pennant

Paul Sporer: Not really sure the other guys they could’ve used at those positions would’ve made a marked difference

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Chances that the Indians pick up Michael Brantley’s option?

Paul Sporer: High, $11 mil is cheap even if only get 350 PA

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Chili Davis is interviewing for the San Diego Padres hitting coach. Mark McGwire is currently the bench coach. In honor of Chili and Big Mac, shouldn’t the team reinstate the brown jerseys and rebrand as the San Diego Diarrheas?

Paul Sporer: Gross

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: How do you think you’d do naming the history of baseball franchises? https://www.jetpunk.com/user-quizzes/205322/major-league-baseball-fran…

Paul Sporer: Not great, Bob

Mitchell Rembold: Is Yandy Diaz is sleeper for next season? He’s a massive human and hits the ball so hard. Is he just an adjustment away from possibly being a star?

Paul Sporer: If we can get him to lift the ball. His 59% GB rate just doesn’t work

Moonlight Graham: Did Eno truly die a death by sandwich?

Paul Sporer: Did TMZ already get the scoop on that? Damn, we were keeping that in house

hscer: i’m partial to a wieters/avila platoon

Paul Sporer: What about the part where Wieters sucks?

Seth: Cueto bounce back next year or

Paul Sporer: If healthy, yes

Julio: What should the Cubs do with Russell, Baez and Happ? Keep one in a utility role or make a trade?

Paul Sporer: SS, 2B, OF

David: Matt Olson or Greg Bird for an OBP dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: Ooooh, that’s a good one. I don’t see a ton of split between those guys, but I’ll lean Bird

Steve Bartman : Hello Paul

Paul Sporer: Hola Steve

John Stamos: Hi Paul, buenos dias. I have both Kris Bryant and Travis Shaw at 3B this year. Neither are eligible at other positions next year in my dynasty league. I have been trying to trade Shaw for a SS to no avail, and am considering trying to swap Bryant for a top SS like Lindor or Correa. How much should I be willing to add to Bryant to get either of those SS?

Paul Sporer: Add nothing! Bryant is worth one of those SS for sure

Captain Video: Your 2nd overall pick in a dynasty league year zero? (Trout 1st)

Paul Sporer: Harper

David: Severino or Hoskins in an OBP keeper league?

Paul Sporer: I’m on the Hoskins train generally speaking, but I think you go for the SP here, espec. if you have Bird & Olson from the previous question

Jalepeno Hannah: O/U on Tiger’s wins next year? 75?

Paul Sporer: Under, 71

Matt: If the Yankees get past Houston and let’s say beats LA. Would that be the most impressive/difficult postseason run of all time? I mean Cleveland, Houston, LA is quite the run

Paul Sporer: It’d be very impressive, but I don’t have the catalog of knowledge to say it’s the best. I knew these mf’ers would make some noise once they made those trades. Solid lineup top to bottom (with 2 superstars in Judge & Sanchez, too, so let’s not sell the O short), elite & super deep pen, and a solid rotation that won’t even tax the pen all the time (espec. as we’ve seen Sevvy rebound from the WC disaster and Tanaka pitch brilliantly)

FGM: #4 pick in a start up Dynasty roto league. Arenado or Correa?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s tough, big fan of both. Gonna lean Arenado, though

Steve: What do you see the White Sox doing this offseason?

Paul Sporer: Probably just moves around the edges as they continue to build up. *Maaayyyybbeee* trade Abreu, but I also think they like the idea of him as the veteran centerpiece when the prospects start to develop

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Paul, you’re awesome but I have a confession. In August I asked in a chat how soon is too soon to celebrate winning a league. You said that any star player could go down quickly. That same week Bryce went down.  I ended up getting caught in a tie on the last day, and Daniel F’n Megden threw a gem on the last day to save my season.  No question really, just thanks for all of your help and advice that brought me my 3rd title in 5 years.

Paul Sporer: Hot damn, it’s that sexy Mengden Mustache!!!!

Paul Sporer: I didn’t even celebrate the success I was having in July/August, but my teams still shit the bed in September for fun. It was like nothing I’d ever seen. Just collapse after collapse in my leagues

69 (Nice!): Keeper question! 10-team ESPN mixed roto 6×6 (OPS and K/BB), standard $260 budget with six keepers. Which six would you pick from Votto ($30), Corey Seager ($16), Bregman ($11), Benintendi ($11), Paxton ($9) and any of the following at $6: Hoskins, Bour, Happ, Smoak, Acuna, Berrios, or Luis Castillo?

Paul Sporer: Votto, Seager, Breg, Beni, Pax, and Hoskins. I miiiight consider Berrios or Castillo over Paxton and save the $3

David: Do you think Manaea will be a good starter this year?

Paul Sporer: Comes down to health for sure. He clearly wasn’t right in the 2H and that sunk his season. Tons of talent, though

Keith Hernandez: How high are you on Alex Reyes for next year?

Paul Sporer: For next year, I’m tempering expectations. I slotted him 63rd – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/october-2018-starting-pitcher-rankin…

Paul Sporer: Just don’t want to get overzealous in the return from the TJ year

NtflxnRichHill: Usually I’ll run standard points gained to help with my projections, but for pitchers, it really sings guys that are “more injury prone” relatively speaking, but I feel like 22 starts from Paxton plus 8-10 starts from a waiver wire pick up is more valuable than…oh I don’t know..rick porcello who regularly makes 30+ starts.  How does the almighty Paul deal with this?

Paul Sporer: I completely agree with this outlook and I think we really need to start changing out values of shortened season players as we see fewer and fewer guys log 30 starts or 600 PA

Paul Sporer: As for how, I’m not sure there’s a totally scientific way, but I’m going to be exploring the topic in a future piece

NtflxnRichHill: Hey Paul, nice to have someone in here besides that drunk hack, Eno. Check this xwOBA based FIP (((xwOBA×1.33×(TBF))+(3×BB)+(3×HBP))-(2×K))/IP+3.125 It correlates better year to year with ERA (2015,16,17) than FIP but it feels simple and dumb because my 1.33 is somewhat arbitrary and only arrived upon because FIP uses 13 × HR

Paul Sporer: I’m simple & dumb, this looks like actual work went into it

Captain Video: Arrieta back to cubs? If not, what’s your prediction ?

Paul Sporer: Ooh, I don’t think they’re gonna give him what he wants. I think they realize he’s not someone who is going to hold up for a 5-year deal

Paul Sporer: I’ll say the Angels will overpay

David: Josh Hader: what will he be?

Paul Sporer: A pitcher… derp, derp, derp, I’m so funny

Paul Sporer: Opens season as RP and shifts to SP

Brian: Worried about rhys HOskins’ finish at all?  Another Shane spencer?

Paul Sporer: Shane Spencer wasn’t showing the kind of skills Hoskins did. Not really worried. It’s almost like Newton’s Law of Baseball – for every blazing hot streak, there’s an equal but opposite cold streak. It’s not 100%, but it happens A LOT. Judge had his. Jose Ramirez unfortunately had his in the posteason

HappyFunBall: I like Brian Goodwin as an extremely useful 4th OF … but not really a starter on a contending team. Exactly the role he played this year and will in 2018 for the Nats. What are the chances some other MLB GM thinks highly enough of him to offer a useful player back in trade?  When I say useful, I mean 3rd starter, competent catcher, or prospect with real ceiling.

Paul Sporer: Nah, he’s gonna be 27 next year, I don’t think anyone is trying to overpay for him. I think they’re best served keeping him. Go buy a C and some bullpen to go with Doolittle & Madson, and then run it back

John Stamos: I heard there would be ludes here?

Paul Sporer: We passed out the ludes right before the chat started, but here’s a musical interlude of hot little jam

Hannah Hochevar: You and Eno were pretty spot on about the Astro’s jumping out to a surprisingly surmountable 2-0 lead. What happens next?

Paul Sporer: Series doesn’t start until a home team loses! I think JV gets it Friday and we get a bananas game 7

Brian: Rizzo at 2b?  Bregman at SS?  Austin Barnes at 2b?

Paul Sporer: Not entirely sure what you’re asking. In most leagues, Rizzo won’t qualify at 2B next yr bc he doesn’t have any starts there. Bregman got 20+ at SS so he’ll be eligible there next year which is awesome. And Barnes is best used at C. It’s nice to have the 2B in case you stumble on a C breakout and have excess

Moltar: I know you’re not enamored with Fulmer, but is he still worth keeping at barely-over-the-minimum in a keep-8 points league? My only other keeper starter would be an expensive Kershaw.

Paul Sporer: Michael Fulmer? I love Michael Fulmer!

Brian: Carl Edwards pitching himself out of a closer role eh?

Paul Sporer: Maddon loves him, I actually think he’ll get the role to start ’18

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Does Javy Baez’s big game reignite the insane notion that he is a good hitter?

Brian: Is Javy Baez the most exciting bad player of all time?

Paul Sporer: Well he’s not bad, but he’s obviously still a flawed hitter. That said, he’s gonna be 25 next year. He’s not a finished product.

Carl: Keep one: Eloy, Kyle Tucker, Brinson, Mejia? Better to keep the best prospect, or one that will be more valuable in 2018?

Paul Sporer: Mostly depends on league setup, but generally speaking I’m keeping the guy closest to production unless it’s a mediocre contributor v. an elite prospect. In this case, I think Brinson is best for next year AND a v good prospect

Brian: Who is the most likely to tank next year:  Devers, Bellinger, Hoskins?

Paul Sporer: Devers

Moltar: Community article last week confirmed what I always knew, that the strike zone is totally different in a 3-0 count than it is in an 0-2 count. But a pitch at the corners is literally %25 more likely to be called a strike in a 3-0 count? That’s insane! We could be having shorter at bats and therefore shorter games! Robot umpires now!

Paul Sporer: Automatic 3-0 strikes are AWFUL

rpo: Bregman or Benintendi next year as keeper?

Paul Sporer: Flip a coin, tbh, but I’ll go Bregman bc of position

Hannah Hochevar: Is Stroman going to earn $20 in AL Only next year?

Paul Sporer: I’d think so, yes

Pencylvester: What kind of draft pick do you think I could swing in an offseason trade moving Gerrit Cole? Yu Darvish?

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine a pretty solid one, espec. for Darvish. Maybe hold Cole as you won’t get huge returns right now, but I still think there’s upside

HappyFunBall: Two years in a row that Kershaw has missed significant time, but been pretty awesome when healthy.  In terms of year-end value, he’s your #___ pitcher in 2018? and where would you draft him?

Paul Sporer: He’s still #1, but the gap has closed. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/october-2018-starting-pitcher-rankin… — I’d take him late 1st, early 2nd

Paul Sporer: He’ll probably still go mid-1st, but I like too many hitters

Keepers: OBP league….Goldschmidt in 10th, Altuve in 5th, and Machado in 25th….can only keep one! Thanks for your time good sir

Paul Sporer: Think the Machado value is just too much to pass up, even if he’s more of a 2nd rounder to their 1st round values

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Your Tigers are the oldest team in the Majors who have never moved nor changed their names!

Paul Sporer: Wooo, go my favorite team!

RAP: Who would you rather have next year – Albies or Zimmer?

Paul Sporer: Both are going to be speed assets I’m interested in buying, but Albies’ plate skills give him to edge for me

Confused Guy: Throw one back in dynasty: Greinke, Paxton, Rhys

Paul Sporer: Think I gotta toss Pax back

Brian: YOu think Albert Almora starts next year?

Paul Sporer: No, I still think he’s a perfect 4th OF/short platoon guy. I do think he’s one of those guys whose defense keeps getting him reps to where he could improve his hitting enough to beat his projection level

Paul Sporer: If he starts hitting righties, look out

Brian: Cubs:  any major problems or just baseball?

Paul Sporer: The bridge to Davis is weak with Edwards sputtering and Justin Wilson not panning out. Then Davis himself has been a bit wobbly

Moltar: Oh god, the CS isn’t even over and Yankee fans are crowing about it being the greatest postseason of all time.

Paul Sporer: lolololol

CamdenWarehouse: Sometimes, the brain doesn’t work properly.  I saw “O/U on Tiger’s wins next year? 75?” and my first thought was: Dude, is he ever even going to golf again?

Paul Sporer: bahahahaha

Paul Sporer: sidenote: I think he said he was going to be coming back again or some shit

Paul Sporer: I’ll believe it when I see it at this pt

IV: Do you think we see Aaron Sanchez return to his 2016 form next year?

Paul Sporer: Ya that damn blister issue ate up a whole season. If he gets that in order, I think he’s good to go

Paul Sporer: great buy low IMO

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Have to think the White Sox love having Abreu as a mentor to Moncada.

Paul Sporer: And the team at large. Great presence, total pro

Paul Sporer: Gotta have some established dudes around when you’re building

IH: Keep 5, out of Hoskins, Bellinger, G. Sanchez, Trea, Kluber, J.D.  Who to drop?

Paul Sporer: Gotta peace out on Hoskins here

Paul Sporer: Rather easily, too, IMO

D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe: An online chat seems like a pretty easy thing to do when you’re under the weather

Paul Sporer: He had to go the hospital… dick

Moonlight Graham: How are you not taking Altuve second in a dynasty league given how rare steals guys are in this environment?

Paul Sporer: I can get behind that, I just prefer Harper

Seth: Is Acúna going to break camp next year? Or start in the minors?

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine he starts in the minors

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: A team name idea for the guy who overdrafts Scooter Gennett next year: King Scootankhamun. That’s A+ material right there. Use it.

Paul Sporer: ?

Matt: Why is J.A. Happ so often overlooked in the discussion of fantasy pitchers. Is it a combination of age and an uninspiring early portion of his career? Since the start of 2015: 3.43 ERA, 8.01 K/9., 2.65 BB/9. That’s a great SP3 in fantasy, yet even you had him ranked 64th, behind a whole bunch of guys who have never shown anything close to that!

Paul Sporer: No doubt, he’s been very solid. I do think age plays a role, but also some pitchers just get underrated despite continued strong performance

Portland Thinkers: Buy or sell Mike Clevinger?

Paul Sporer: Depends where his price is, but I dig the raw stuff for sure

Jalepeno Hannah: Best 2nd half nobody noticed ?

Paul Sporer: Jorge Polanco and Taijuan Walker/Charlie Morton

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Do the Rays give Jake Bauers a regular job next year?

Paul Sporer: Probably not out of the gate

guitar_davey: Any take on the Granderson “foul tip” call last night? If reversing that call had changed the outcome of the game, would the Cubs have maybe had a legit case to protest the game?

Paul Sporer: I didn’t see a shred of contact on that, but either way, that’s not supposed to be a turnover-able call

Moltar: In a razor-thin h2h points final I went in to the final sunday down 12 points. My opponent had beat me out on the claim for the aforementioned Daniel Mengden, but left him on his bench. I picked up my next choice, Josh Tomlin, who gave me a solid start, and I won the matchup by 10 points. So in conclusion, Libya is a land of contrast, and I thank you Paul for another great season of advice!

Paul Sporer: Damn, Mengden was playing a huge role in seasons it seems!

Bae Ruth: Do you think Kipnis rebounds next year?

Paul Sporer: I’ve never been a Kipnis guy, tbh. If healthy, he’ll be fine, but he’s 31 next year so betting on the health seems like the sketchiest part of the whole deal

Keith Hernandez: Since I’m now mentally programmed to ask beer questions at noon on Thursdays, what’s your go to sitting on the couch watching baseball beer?

Paul Sporer: Red Bull

Paul Sporer: I don’t drink, sorry ?

Larry Biggersby: Buxton trailed off a little after lightning struck. I get he’ll be streaky, but will the overall numbers be stomachable?

Paul Sporer: They better be more than stomachable considering people are gonna pay like a top 6 round price

Seth: Where does JDM end up?

Paul Sporer: Back in Houston!

HappyFunBall: One totally scientific way to better judge short season pitchers is to just normalize their innings and then rank them.  All “starters” get 150 innings.  period.  All “relievers” get 60. period. And toss wins/losses entirely.  There will always be waiver wire streamers you can grab to goose your innings or chase wins in a favorable matchup.

Paul Sporer: That’s an interesting way to do it for sure

Moltar: What are your thoughts on Seth Lugo as a back-end starter next season? I think of him similar to Cotton, one great pitch that could lead to something more. Health is a question but he’ll undoubtedly have a job, and put up fairly decent numbers with a 3.95 FIP.

Paul Sporer: Certainly a viable gamble. I think you rightly point out that health is the real question, but the talent is there to be a great low-dollar option

E: Regarding injury prone players – I know this isn’t exactly a 1-1 comparison but I took a risk on several injury prone players this year for fantasy basketball, figuring the same logic as above, 40-50 above average games and waiver wire is better than 75 average games. And if your injury prone player doesn’t get hurt, thats gold, Jerry!

Paul Sporer: Of course the major caveat in all of this, is that it’s best employed in mixed leagues in the 10-12 team range so you have a bountiful waiver wire. In AL/NL only leagues, I think you have to favor PT

HappyFunBall: Austin Barnes at 2B is mostly relevant in as much as it gets him more playing time in real life. Can’t imagine too many fantasy rosters where finding a good 2B is harder than finding a good C

Paul Sporer: Exactly

Paul Sporer: Never want to play C-eligibles at other positions

D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe: Actually Paul, this series STOPS once the home team loses.

Paul Sporer: That’s true!

Stove: 2018 Jorge Soler: stud, power-heavy regular, bench player, or can’t buy a spot in the starting lineup because #Yost?

Paul Sporer: Pwr heavy reg — 25 HR, .255 AVG

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: When is the last time you thought about Jose Rosado?

Paul Sporer: Probably not since his big 1999!

Mark: Does Oswaldo Arcia pop into your radar at all? Could be he be the next Just Dingers Martinez?

Paul Sporer: Wow, I just looked him up and didn’t realize he’s only 26. I would’ve pegged him at 28-29. Not sure he’s another JD unless he’s revamping himself and taking copious notes w/pen & paper after each AB!

Vic Romano: How much faith do you have in Schoop and Pham?  Both were WW MVPs for my championship last season, but I’m not sure I can justify keeping both.  (I’m leaning more in favor of keeping Schoop…)

Paul Sporer: Gotta go Schoop there. I really love Pham, but I gotta be realistic about a 29 y/o breakout with injury history & a degenerative eye issue (that he did get under control this year, but still)

Paul Sporer: I’ll still be drafting some Pham shares, but between those two, it’s Schoop easily

FlimFlam Thrower: Hey Paul, thanks for doing the chat. I had a question about Ohtani and the Japanese posting system.  Is Ohtani still just going to the highest-bidding US team, and then he has 30 days to accept, or is Ohtani more like a typical international free agent?

Paul Sporer: No prob! I think With Ohtani it’s gonna be where any team can put up the max posting and then he can select from those teams

Paul Sporer: They recently changed the system so I’m not fully attuned to the specifics

Another Story!: Doubling down on Trevor Story in 2018.  For all the flak he got . . . he quietly hit .254 at a full season pace of roughly 30 dongs, 10 SB, 108 RBI, 81 R . . . without ever really getting “hot” at any point.  I feel like his price will be very low next year (barring a big spring at least) + upside is the same as this year.

Paul Sporer: Ya, I am, too, now that the price will be cheap as well

Guy with the trophy: *puffs cigar I lit with your money* I noticed Morton’s 2nd half

Paul Sporer: well played

Fat Steve: Why is everyone still so high on Mookie for next year? Is it possible that he is way more 2017 than 2016 moving forward? That average and OPS didn’t feel great this year.

Paul Sporer: Can you find anything besides BABIP that went wrong in ’17? Anyone who’s listened to or read me knows I don’t blindly use BABIP as a luck-o-meter and think it’s too often used as such, but in the case of Betts, I just don’t see anything but an unfairly low BABIP that held him back

Biz Markie: Nominee for best 2nd half no one noticed – Schwarber.  .253/.335/.559 with 17 HR was great from the C spot (which he sadly won’t have next year)

Paul Sporer: I was gonna mention but everyone jo’s every time he breathes so I know his 2H was noticed

FlimFlam Thrower: Would you trade Edwin Diaz for Kyle Schwarber as a 1B?  Is this light for Schwarber?

Paul Sporer: I would make that move. Closers are too sketchy and while I’m not as high on Schwarber as his big backers, he’s an easy 30 in the bank

Zac: Paul, no question, but thanks for all your work this season.  Made a couple of big trades that you gave direct input on from your chats.  Also picked up 5 crucial pitching points on the last day of the season by following your streaming advice.  I love you.

Paul Sporer: Hey thanks, man!! I really appreciate that

Paul Sporer: There are some great questions I can’t get to because I didn’t budget a ton of time as this is a fill-in gig, but my normal chat is tomorrow around 2 PM CT, so please come to that and I’ll get to more questions!

Moonlight Graham: @Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe the PHILLIES are the oldest team in the Majors who have never moved nor changed their names.

Paul Sporer: roasted

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: The Phillies came up as the Philadelphia Quakers!

Paul Sporer: re-roasted

Dave: Is Austin Barnes starting in LA next year? Do the dodgers trade Grandal? I think I like Barnes as a top 5 C if he’s the starter…

Paul Sporer: Maybe Barnes just plays 2B and gives Grandal a breather at C here and there. I love Barnes, I can’t wait to overdraft  him!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I’m out. Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24)! Back tomorrow for my regularly scheduled chat!