Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – November 10th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Can’t believe the season is officially done, but the Hot Stove is already heating up. Let’s talk about it!!

Sox: Would a Rusney Castillo–Matt Kemp trade make sense for the teams?

Paul Sporer: I think the Sox want to do something else at DH so while in theory it might line up, I don’t think it’s plays in practice

Paul Sporer: Curious if we ever see Rusney get a real shot, though

Wes: Former Austinite here. Better Taco, Torchy’s or TacoDeli? For baseball purposes: Do you think Otani ditches the bat for pitching full time in a few years or could he be the first legit two way player we have seen in a long time?

Paul Sporer: I’m ride or die with Torchy’s. I just love it. The tacos I had at Galaxy Taco in San Diego were amazing and better than Torchy’s, but for local, I’m Torchy’s all day. All I’ve read re: Ohtani is that he wants to be somewhere he can hit. Obv can’t play the field every day he’s not pitching, but maybe 1-2x plus his ABs as SP

Jay: Other than the 2 1/2 year age gap, please explain to me why everyone is drawing up 100 million deals for Eric Hosmer and projecting Carlos Santana to get 60-80. Is it strictly just age?

Paul Sporer: it’s more of a 4 year gap, but ya, just age & hype. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&…

Paul Sporer: Santana played his age-31 season, Hosmer age-27

Roxhead: What are the chances Cargo re-inks with the Rox?  Or, do they spend the $ on Lucroy and/or Holland?

Paul Sporer: I’d say low. I realize he’s a legacy there, but it just doesn’t make sense for where they are right now

Connor: Is Jorge Soler done?

Paul Sporer: No, just 26 years old next year. Ceiling is lowered, but hardly toast IMO

ksmille2: I am in a dynasty league and can keep 10 of: J. Abreu, D. Gordon, C. Correa, E. Andrus, J. Turner, Harper, Stanton, JD, N. Cruz, Kershaw, CMart, and Yu. Would it be crazy to try and trade Abreu, Cruz, and Yu to get someone like Bellinger? I know it’s a lot to give up but I can’t keep them all anyway.

Paul Sporer: No, it wouldn’t be crazy especially since you’re dealing some age with someone like Cruz. And like you said, you can’t keep ’em anyway so might as well make the assets work for you. I like it

ChicagoCardinal: Any tips for Ottoneu Allocation? Target absolute surplus, surplus relative to salary or stars with decent surplus? I will have ton of money for auction if that makes any difference

Paul Sporer: I’m actually about to go through the process for the first time myself this weekend so I don’t have any great tips rn. Trey Baughn on Twitter @fazeorange could be of service, though!

Tommy Lasordid: Do the Dodgers maintain their two-headed catching monster for Grandal’s last year of control, or trade him for a prospect? I say keep him.

Paul Sporer: I think they keep him, too, and Barnes gets burn at 2B as well as C

Matt: Keeper league. Jv 9th darvish 8th kluber 2nd. Pick 1 thanks bruddha

Paul Sporer: that’s pretty tough. Kluber is the best, but I don’t think he’s 6-7 rds better. I think I’d just keep JV at the lowest cost

Tommy Lasordid: Would a Joc Pederson /Brock Stewart package be reasonable to get Stanton assuming Dodgers pick up bulk of Stanton’s salary?

Paul Sporer: I doubt it. I feel like a premium prospect has to go even if the team picks up major dollars on the deal

DrunkPatrickKane88: yo paul

Paul Sporer: Kaaannneee

Bronx Bombers: You’re like the fourth person this week to get asked that Castillo-Kemp question. People who spam the chats with the same question are the worst. Especially such an uninteresting question. That is all.

Paul Sporer: loooooooool, roasted af

Moltar: I was all set to keep a market-rate Jansen under the belief that true #1 closers are extra valuable these days and that I’d have to pay at least as much if not more to replace him at auction. Should I be worried about his heavy usage in the postseason possibly affecting him next year? Or am I overreacting?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think you’re overreacting. I think it’s a worthy consideration. I, too, like the elite RPs, but I think I’m fading Jansen a little. Not that he’ll meltdown or anything, but just that he might not be the overwhelming best. If you have other options, I’d entertain it. Again, not necessarily seeing a skills meltdown, but perhaps a DL breather or 2

cheap-o: what are draft and hold options for somebody cheap that doesn’t want to drop $100+ for nbfc?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure of any other D&H league formats out there outside perhaps starting your own. Fantrax is already hosting leagues so you could probably start one up there with some friends and make it a $10-20 thing?

Tommy Lasordid: How much did Yu’s World Series meltdown impact the chances of him signing with LA?

Paul Sporer: Almost zero, IMO

Paul Sporer: he was elite before the World Series. bad time to have 2 colossally awful starts, but it doesn’t cloud the Dodgers into thinking he’s a markedly worse player

Paul Sporer:

SSS: Best guess on where Jose Berrios ends ranked next year? You had him 30’s in your October rankings but Jeff’s auction calculator didn’t have him in the top 50?

Paul Sporer: I think his range is wide, but I obviously think he’ll be top 40ish. I’m going to bet on the skills.

Scott: Keeper league, $270 budget. I have a $1 Bellinger that would cost $3/$7/$13/$21/$31 the next 5 years. If my best SP is Archer, and all above him are kept, crazy to trade Bellinger for Kluber who would cost $17/$25/$35/$47/$61 next 5? (Kershaw will be kept at $61 next year)

Paul Sporer: You shouldn’t plan on keeping either for 5 years, way too uncertain to commit to that, espec. w/Kluber. Although as I’m typing this, I’m thinking it’s not something where you have to sign the contract head of time, they just go up yearly. At any rate, I’m keeping Belly. If you need to move him in-season for pitching, then so be it. But build your rotation and take a few months to see where you’re at before moving such a key young piece

Alastar: Who do you prefer in a dynasty league, Price or Verlander? Verlander has the better health right now but is 3 years older.

Paul Sporer: JV for me

John: Would an NL team really put Otani in the OF? Will the NL have a DH in the next decade?

Paul Sporer: Who knows for sure? But he’s been adamant that he wants to play both ways and hit more than just on his throw day. The NL should have the DH. Pitchers batting is beyond stupid and has no place in the game

Mike: Where would you rank Acuna next year, among OFers?  Top 30, 50?

Paul Sporer: I’m just not going to rank someone who has never been in the majors that high. I acknowledge his elite upside and will definitely be open to drafting him at the right price, but top 30 is just too high. 50 probably is, too, but it’s close at that point. Team construction would play a role. I think as we get clarity on his role, I’ll have a firmer spot where I’d take him

Steve: I’m doing a slow draft and late last night took godley rather than otani … without checking the news to see about posting first. Just how much am I going to wind up regretting that?

Paul Sporer: We let Ohtani go in the 14th round of my NFBC draft and hold last week and that’s a league notorious for reaching on guys. I like Godley, but Ohtani is supposed to be a true stud and you could be kicking yourself

Tim: Fernando Rodney gave up 0 ER in May and June this year. May he never retire

Paul Sporer: 5 year deal incoming!

ksmille2: Do you think the Cardinals have the juice to pull off a Stanton trade? I know they have the high end pitching prospects but it just doesn’t seem like a Cardinals move. (assuming he would even accept a trade there which doesn’t seem likely)

Paul Sporer: They do have the juice, yes. I can see it as a Cardinal move. They’re not afraid to invest in centerpieces with gas in the tank (they realized they’d gotten the best of Pujols) and this gives them their next foundation piece

Mario Mendoza: Are we completely done with Jorge Soler

Paul Sporer: Scroll up a little!

Tommy Lasordid: Thoughts on Danny Salazar? Worth holding in a dynasty league over Bradley Zimmer, all things being equal — or too much risk?

Paul Sporer: I still love Salazar’s talent. When he came back from the DL that first time, he looked amazing and that level is in there when healthy. I think both have risk so I can see keeping either. Zimm’s speed keeps this from being a slamdunk for me in favor of Salazar. I’m gonna lean Salazar 57/43

FGM: I have Barnes and Sisco as my catchers this year. Do either of them take over full time duties?

Paul Sporer: Think Sisco has a better chance at it if Grandal stays, but Barnes should play FT catcher reps with his work at 2B

Alastar: Do you see a bounceback for Polanco if he gets fully healthy or is 2016 his ceiling?

Paul Sporer: Definitely see more if healthy, so I’m really hoping the shoulder holds up. Love his talent

AD: Thoughts on Ian Kinsler next season? BABIP was remarkably low, and I feel like an sort of correction there could get him back to 2015/16 levels

Paul Sporer: Agreed. No reason he should’ve had a .244 BABIP. Everything else was in line and while he is 36, the skills are solid. He’ll be pretty cheap and forgotten so I think he’s a solid target. Could even wind up at MI for some teams that go 2B/SS early which would be really nice

Connor: One thing they need to add in MLB The Show 18?

Paul Sporer: They need to fix tags. They’re really jacked right now and cause frustration too often. So that’s not technically an *add* since there are tags in the game, but let’s say GOOD tags would be the add

SSS: Does a healthy Yasmany Tomas make the Dbacks less likely to sign JDM? If they do sign JDM, do Tomas and Peralta and Pollack all take hits (if you count on them being healthy…)?

Paul Sporer: the FO seemed to suggest that everything works out to keep everyone BUT JD based on their budget. think they’re stuck with Yasmany

cheap-o: how did you do overall this year?  any sites track experts in their leagues?

Paul Sporer: I did OK. Was really tracking for a nice season before a September where my teams just went to sleep. No real injuries or anything, just underwhelming performances allllll over the place and cost me 2-3 spots in several leagues. Super disappointing bc I was rolling in July-August and stayed aggressive

Scott: Thanks for answering my Kluber/Bellinger Q. I appreciate your work!! FYI – your second thought was right in that I have the option keeping at the prices listed. No long-term commitment.

Paul Sporer: No problem!

Mookie Cookie: Love my one home league I play in, but any suggestions on where to find a serious league to play in?

Paul Sporer: nfbc.stats.com

Mark Matheny: Would Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, and Yu Darvish be too much to give up in a dynasty league for Acuna?

Paul Sporer: It’s definitely a lot, but I think that’s the rate. If it doesn’t decimate you for the now, then I’d do it

Catchers: Keep 3- Machado, Stanton, Bryant, Kluber, Judge

Paul Sporer: Without context, I think I’d go Stanton, Bryant, and Kluber. Judge is Stanton overlap and the lack of aces pushes me to Klubes over MM

John: Who do you think is the first big name to sign and when?

Paul Sporer: Justin Upton 🙂

Paul Sporer: Jokes aside, I think Moustakas signs before Thanksgiving

Dynasty: Starting a fresh 12 to dynasty H2H categories, 5 OF, any advice on how to build a team via auction?

Paul Sporer: There’s no set way, but I’d buy an ace for sure (one of the top 7-8 SPs), wait on CI/MI (both are deep), get major power (some wrongly assume the abundance of power means it can be waited on)

Wes: Would Forrest Whitley need to dominate at AA/AAA to get a cup of coffee this year? Or is 2019 more of his ETA?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’d have to force their hand being a 20-year old in a great org. A team more in the middle or lower could reasonably skip AAA if he was just AMAZING at AA to see if he gives them a boost, but I’m not sure the Stros will even have a spot for him regardless of how well he does at AA

Walter Alston: Having pitchers hit introduces one of the most strategic decisions a manager can make: when to pull the starter for a pinch hitter and whether to double-switch when the reliever comes in. Go to the DH and the manager sits on his butt until it’s obvious the pitcher has lost it. Long live the NL.

Paul Sporer: No it doesn’t. This is the most overrated argument in the universe for pitchers hitting. In fact, it does the opposite. It makes pretty obvious when you have to lift a pitcher in the large majority of cases because they’re coming up with runners on and you need to score so you lift him. In the AL, you don’t have the easy out of them batting as a reason to lift them. It adds no strategy, it adds no offense of course, and it’s a completely unnecessary risk when these guys are running $18-20 mil per yr. Sorry, but I couldn’t disagree more vehemently.

Paul Sporer: NL managers aren’t out here playing 9D chesss while AL managers are playing checkers. That’s just not true.

Steve: Saw you took Bradley before some established closers in your draft. Including melancon, if I recall correctly. How certain are you that Bradley gets the job? And any hope in melancon rebound? Underlying numbers didn’t look that much worse…

Paul Sporer: Love Melancon at his price. Took him in a mock on Wednesday. I didn’t realize Bradley was lobbying to start again so I probably would’ve waited a little longer had I seen that news. That said, I think the org realizes he’s a reliever and gives him the 9th from jump street

Floyd: Hi Paul – which two would you choose as NL OBP league keepers? $14 Story, $13 Shaw, $13 Baez, $3 Altherr, $3 Alex Wood and $3 Felipe Rivero – thanks!

Paul Sporer: That’s tough. Not sure there’s a lot of separation among the hitters. I’ll sacrifice the OBP for SB and Coors and go with Story and then pair him with Rivero or Wood (not sure your other keepers so I don’t know what kinda pitching you’ve got already)

Coach K: IMO the Cubs packaging Heyward and someone among Russell, Baez, Happ or Russell is the key to their winter trade success. They simply need to move the Heyward contract before they can prioritize their plan. I don’t believe SP in the #1 goal. Getting out of Heyward is. So… Heyward and his albatross and Russell for Stanton while Miami eats only $25M of Stanton. If this were to happen, it opens Cubs up to maybe getting Otani. I see them signing Minor and Cozart by the way. Your crystal ball?

Paul Sporer: Why would the Marlins want an albatross in Heyward just to move Stanton, though? Stanton is super expensive, but not an albatross

Twinkie: What percent likelihood we could pull otani to MN?

Paul Sporer: 6%

Bennybadatroto: How’s this for a doozy:

Paul Sporer: *crickets*

Twinkie: Over/under .250 avg for Wil Myers this yr?

Paul Sporer: that’s the number for sure, but I’ll say slightly over… .252 lol

Jay: How excited are you from a fantasy prospective about Ohtani /Otani?  Are you bidding differently on him depending on if an AL or NL team gets him?

Paul Sporer: I’m pretty geeked bc he’s supposed to be an amazing arm and I geek out on pitchers. His landing spot definitely influences things, but once he’s settled, he’s looking like a 5th-7th round kind of arm

Dungeon Master: DUNGEON. MASTER.

Paul Sporer: PAUL. SPORER.

velo: 10 team mixed roto w/ OPS, keep Up To 5 – holding Bellinger and JD, after that who’s worth it? Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura, Willy Contreras, E5, Billy Hamilton, Darvish, Grenkie, Robbie Ray, Alex Wood?  thanks!

Paul Sporer: Keep one of Murph/Turner – your choice. Keep Hamilton bc your first 3 offensive guys cover his OPS deficiency. And then I’d keep Darvish (the 2 DBacks are close so if you really had an affinity for one, you could go that way, but me personally it’d be Yu)

Pickle Rick!!!: You just saw Acuna … would you trade him for Benintendi? (Dynasty with OBP and AVG)

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s an intriguing one. I think I would, espec. if I’m built to contend in ’18. Both are high ceiling uber-prospects so I’m just taking the one a bit more developed

Magic 8 Ball: Ohtani to Anaheim. My sources say yes.

Paul Sporer: If they can make it happen, they should. They should be spending their dongs off while they still have Trout as that window is fast closing

Dungeon Master: What’s up with Zimmerman’s auction calculator? Had some weird results. Jose Quintana #8 SP, Tyler Lyons in the 30s, Arrieta #47 all come to mind

Paul Sporer: I’d probably ask him directly for detailed answers, but it is just one set of inputs so it’s not gospel. I’m fading Arrieta again this year anyway, so I’m not too surprised by that

Minor league Slow Draft: who do you prefer next 3 years? Acura,

Paul Sporer: Lexus or Nissan?

Twinkie: How many hr and sb for starling marte this yr?

Paul Sporer: 13/35

cheap-o: my 3 year old is talking about a diver taking the monster to the sky.  i think he wants to know what 2018 60 to 80 adp will be a top 20 pick in 2019??

Paul Sporer: from this list – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/october-2018-starting-pitcher-rankin… — Reyes, Rodon, Cobb, Snell are my candidates

Zwibi: Jorge Mateo has looked great in the DWL. You think there is a chance we see him in Oak next year? his tools are still ridiculous for fantasy and a change of scenery seemed to help him out.

Paul Sporer: Certainly possible. They aren’t afraid to bring their guys up so even if they’re not contending, I could see him up in summer if he does well in AAA

Zwibi: Word on the street is Nick Senzel could play multiple positions next year including MI. How much better of a prospect does that make him considering his year last year and the live ball in the MLB while playing in Cincy

Paul Sporer: I greatly value flexibility these days, espec. with the rise in DL stints because I never want to be in a place where I can’t get the hot ticket off the wire bc I don’t have a spot. He’s quietly an elite prospect whose stock is only going to rise. This winter could be the last chance to get him anything close to on the cheap before ppl realize what’s going on and that he could be contributing this summer

John: Which free website would you suggest for a dynasty start up league?

Paul Sporer: Been enjoying Fantrax

Jimmy Ballgame: What is Stanton worth in a keeper league trade?

Paul Sporer: Honestly, that’s impossible to answer with zero info outside of it being a keeper lg

Paul Sporer: A lot, I guess

Jimmy: Do you think a three-way deal with Betances going to ???, prospects going to San Diego and Hand going to the Yankees makes sense?

Paul Sporer: I guess it could if the right prospects were involved from that 3rd team. But I’m not sure the Yankees are attacking the bullpen this offseason

Nick Senzel: Who is more likely to go higher in a fantasy draft next year, Pat Neshek or Adam Ottavino.  I need to RFA one in a league.

Paul Sporer: Ottavino would seem more likely to be coveted to me

Pat G: As a rebuilding team, what do I do with Julio Urias?

Paul Sporer: Oof, that’s tough. Probably just gotta ride it out since you’re rebuilding. A sell low would only make sense if you were close

Jimmy Ballgame: Alex Reyes, Willy Adames, and Mags Sierra for stanton and treinen in a keeper….which side you got?

Paul Sporer: Side B for ’18 for sure

Bennybadatroto: Haha I moved Acuna, M. Chapman, Cozens, Rodon, Bader, and the number three overall pick in minors draft for Arenado and Cutch. I’m sad after seeing what you said you’d offer for Acuna….doozy complete…lol

Paul Sporer: You got a top 5 bat and a really solid OF3. Still lots of questions in the return for your leaguemate

Jimmy: Who will be more effective next year? Jake McGee pitching in a normal home park or Mike Minor?

Paul Sporer: Interesting duo there. I don’t think they’ll be toooo far apart, but I really dig what Minor did so I’m going to lean toward him

RAP: How would you rank the following for next year – Albies, Acuna, Robles, Zimmer?

Paul Sporer: I think I’m going Albies, Acuna, Zimm, Robles

Hannah Hochevar: Any idea on the 2018 Buxton line? (As in baseball stats, not something witty he’s going to say.)

Paul Sporer: .251-82-19-66-40

mike: fantasy question; OBP and holds are the 6th categories. 5 keepers are: Betts, Bellinger, Hoskins, Judge, R. Ray. Going to cost me $65. (ya I know) Should my plan be to go big (budget $170) on another 5 guys (2 SP and 3 position players) and then just pick up cast offs with my other 12 picks (I’d only have around $35 for the rest), or should I spread the money around?

Paul Sporer: If it’s 10-12 teams, I’d definitely like the go big method as the castoffs will be pretty solid and you could spike a few studs outta that. If it’s 15+, I’m more open to spreading the risk a bit, though even as I say that I look at your keepers and realize you’re working with a lot of surplus value so maybe going big is the method regardless

Paul Sporer: Of course, you have to be prepared for what the auction gives you so don’t get married to a plan

Bob: In a dynasty league would you an accept an offer of Devers and Hoskins for your Robles Bichette Soroka, Mitch White, TJ Zeuch, Vladimir Gutierrez, Jeter Downs, Ryan Castellani, and Dakota Hudson?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have a full mental profile on a couple of those guys, but it seems like too much. Devers and Hoskins are here & now, but Robles & Bichette could be every bit as good by start of ’19 plus all the other guys of which 1-2 could spike, so unless you’re making your huge push this year, I think it’s a stayaway

Dub: Angels spending their dongs off for Trout netted them Pujols and Hamilton, not the best strategy but it may be their only strategy

Paul Sporer: There’s spending and then there’s spending wisely

Paul Sporer: Ohtani wouldn’t be anywhere near the Pujols and Hamilton deals. Don’t need hindsight on either of those deals, they were sketchy from the jump.

Paul Sporer: And I’m not saying everything has to be big money deals. But reinforce the team via the market bc their system blows

Dub: 6×7 keeper league
(R,RBI,TB,Ks,HR,SB,OBP x W,Sv,Ks,ERA,WHIP,QS)
Keep 3 of Lindor, Jose Ramirez(2B,3B),Bellinger(1B/OF), Scherzer

Paul Sporer: That’s tough! Lindor and Ramirez are essentially the same so maybe it’s worth only having one so you have diversity in your keeps. I might punt Belly, though

Nector Harris: in the middle of a contention window with a mostly set offense, have Kluber and Darvish locked up, need to build remaining rotation. Have option of 2yr contracts for Jose Quintana and Marcus Stroman at slightly above market value, and/or Charlie Morton and Michael Wacha at below market value. Any of those particularly attractive or unattractive to you?

Paul Sporer: Would prefer the two below market. A little nervous on Morton given his health record and extra workload this year, but I just love the stuff. Can’t quit Wacha, either.

Pat G: I’m probably a year away from contending. Should I hold Urias and trade him right before he pitches in the majors to another rebuilding team on .80 on the dollar?

Paul Sporer: Yes, just hang tight for now

Paul Sporer: Unless that .75-.80 on the dollar deal comes along randomly

Minty: OBP dynasty would you trade any of my Hoskins/Bellinger/Rizzo for Ohtani? All 3 studs, but pitching is shallow and all 1B

Paul Sporer: Any of em, really

Brian : Leave out a keeper:  Rhys, Bregman, Bellinger, Devers, Benintendi.  Go with Trout, Rizzo, Machado.  Only one flex spot

Paul Sporer: Think Devers gets the boot from that sexy group for me

Brian : Where does Xander project as a keeper?  Was it his hand?

Paul Sporer: I do think it was and I’m not going to quit him. He’s off the radar a bit and I’m looking to buy. 25 year old who has shown a really diverse skill set in his 3 seasons so far. Not done growing IMO

Brian : How many teams do you run?  And how many do you really care about?

Paul Sporer: 11. I care about all of em obviously or I wouldn’t play. As the season goes, they get prioritized based on performance. I’ve been cutting the last few years and I’d like to be around 9 this year

Brian : Carlos Martinez for what round next year?

Paul Sporer: Rd 4 in a 15-teamer

Mark Matheny: Thoughts on Miguel Sano this year? Top 20 dynasty keeper?

Paul Sporer: That’s a little too high for me with the power surge, but he has a 40 HR season coming at some point

Jimmy: Any insight on the best way to judge catcher defense from publicly available stats? It’s confusing sorting through what you guys, B-Pro and Stat Corner have available.

Paul Sporer: Depends what you’re looking for. I use StatCorner for the framing.

Cody: Do you have any advice for someone trying to move from a fairly competitive 12 team home keeper league into more competitive leagues? i.e. Are forum boards the best way to find new leagues? & Any preference in league types? (Keeper, Ottoneu, Dynasty, etc.)

Paul Sporer: I think NFBC is the way to go. I’m really an NFBC honk after these last couple yrs playing them. It’s so much fun and a really, really competitive landscape

Donovan: Hey Paul, I am planning on keeping 1 pitcher in a H2H 10 category league. Would you keep Alex Wood, Lance McCullers, or Zach Godly?

Paul Sporer: it’s Wood for me based on my early run https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/october-2018-starting-pitcher-rankin…

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta run! Chats will be longer in the offseason on the weeks where a lot of news comes out, but we’re still in the decompress stage a bit. Got some fun stuff coming out next week that I hope y’all like

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out. Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24) where I stream MLB The Show 18 (including tonight!). I’ll be back next week!

Mark Matheny: Should I trade Harper for Machado and Acuna in dynasty>

Paul Sporer: That’s definitely fair, so I could do it