Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 4th, 2018

Paul Sporer: Helloooo!!! We’ll get started soon.

DB: Who do you like as a better minors stash in redrafts…Alex Reyes or Michael Kopech?

Paul Sporer: Kopech. Love Reyes talent, but too much of a wildcard off of TJ

Cubies Cub: Buy or Sell Nick Kingham ROY

Paul Sporer: I mean I’ll sell ROY, but I’ll buy legitimacy

paolo: no real reason to worry about rizzo, right?

Paul Sporer: Not much reason, no. A little curious about the tiny walk rate, though

o’HOOLIGAN’S: When will your May SP Rankings be released or did I miss them somehow?

Paul Sporer: You didn’t miss them, just taking me a while. No later than Monday

Fred Pants: I’m considering trading David Price at a discount.  He can’t seem to finish off batters, and will face tough lineups quite frequently.   Is my panic at all justified?

Paul Sporer: Yes, there is some justification. Someone tweeted me a pic of how his start unraveled from a bad call v. TEX, but here has been a consistent issue of not finishing innings where old Price would get the guy out. He’s better than 5.11, but this iteration is more of a 4.20 pitcher w/those BB and H rates.

BK: Can Albies sustain his 339 wRC+ from the left side this season?

Paul Sporer: Nah, it’ll go higher

Rickon: The Lesson I learned this year: Having too many possible keeper options limits your ability to maneuver

Paul Sporer: You mean now or in the winter/spring? In-season you shouldn’t be sweating keeper/non-keeper unless you’re tanking a year

Dave: Ok! In an NL-only H2H league. Need a Corey Seager replacement. Orlando Arcia or Nick Ahmed for rest of season?

Paul Sporer: I’m digging Ahmed. He made real changes to his approach and he’s actually beasting on righties, his previous kryptonite. If he gets going on vL again like last year, we could be seeing an all-formats breakout from Ahmed

Dave: Matt Carpenter was just dropped in my NL-only H2H. Worth picking up? Would likely have to drop Howie Kendrick or Michael Conforto to make room. Waiting for Murphy to come back from DL.

Paul Sporer: Let me state from the top, even though I wasn’t really digging Conforto this year bc of the shoulder, I can’t see cutting him in NL only so this becomes Carp v. Kendrick. I see why Carp is being touted as a buy-low, but I’ve been scared off by Collette outlining the severity of his shoulder issue. Carp’s soft contact is basically non-existent (6%), but I’m still suspect… soooo all that blathering to say I think I’m sitting tight

BK: NL only 11 teamer, how much should I bid on Soroka this Sunday? What about Bautista?

Paul Sporer: ~17-20%… who is Bautista?

Polo: Do you buy into April Thames? I want to possibly stash him on DL for late season power but the general consensus is that he’s useless after April.

Paul Sporer: With the thumb injury keeping him out 6-8 weeks, I’m pretty out on Thames right now. I was willing to buy back in before the injury, though

Fred Pants: Conforto or Schwarber ROS?

Paul Sporer: Schwarber

Peter: Thoughts on Franchy Cordero and David Dahl?

Paul Sporer: Franchy has insane skills and major upside, but he could also go Keon Broxton. I really like Dahl if he finds consistent playing time

David: What is the path of recovery for Darvish? Is this a permanent reassessment of who he is and will be, or an extended blip in a good/great career?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, maybe Nick and I will discuss him in our fireside chat this weekend. I haven’t done a deep-dive otherwise and if we don’t discuss him this weekend, I’ll write him up

o’HOOLIGAN’S: Should I stash Greg Bird and drop Roughned Odor in a 5×5 Roto? Sounds like Bird could be playing rehab games “within the week”.

Paul Sporer: The idea of dropping Odor is OK (though he will catch fire eventually), but I’m so “meh” on Bird with all the injuries so I might just ride it out w/Roogie

Natitutde: 10-team, Roto, W, HR K, ERA, WHIP, Saves. Are Darvish or Quintana droppable? My other SPs are Stras, Snell, Godley, Pivetta and Tanaka.

Paul Sporer: No, both are obviously frustrating, but I can’t cut either right now

Rhys: Rhys must be due for a HR barrage, no? His HR/FB is down 20% from last year

Paul Sporer: Well the 32% from last year was never going to last, but I do think he’s better than this year 13%

Jackson: Has Soler arrived? Pls say yes so I can rename my team to Solar Power

Paul Sporer: I mean you can rename either way, but I am very encouraged here! Improved BB & K helping deliver big results

Rocco: Is Snell becoming an Ace?

Paul Sporer: Let’s not get too carried away. He has major upside and I’m certainly intrigued by him, but even adding in his run late last year plus these seven starts isn’t enough to say he’s an ace

paolo: Is Teoscar being figured out? 4 for his last 26.

Paul Sporer: Nah, can’t really react that quickly to the ebbs and flows of the season or you’ll drive yourself nuts. He came out on fire and was definitely going to level out a bit.

jarlin the marlin: am i for real?  or do i turn back into a pumpkin as soon as this coming tuesday when i have to pitch in wrigley?

Paul Sporer: He’s a low-4.00s ERA kinda guy to me. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/how-good-is-jarlin-garcia/

Would You Rather: Wheeler streamable at home v. COL tonight?

Paul Sporer: Ya, let’s do it!

Joey Lou Cheesy: Pick a streamer for today: Guerra, Wheeler, Liriano, Kennedy

Paul Sporer: Wheeler, Guerra, Liriano, Kennedy. Not much split between the group, either

Steve: Bregman’s power going to show up anytime soon?

Paul Sporer: He seems to love slow starts so I do think it’ll come around

seth: Swanson for Odor in a keeper league, which side you got?

Paul Sporer: Still Odor for me

Tim : 12 team H2H points league. Who do you want at your 3rd: Chapman, Castellanos, or Eugenio Suarez?

Paul Sporer: The order you listed is my preference

Tim the Tool Man Taylor: Tyson Ross is on the waiver wire. Do I drop Maeda or Mikolas for him?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d have Maeda third among the group

Tryn : Who do you think is a better option this weekend against Baltimore, Triggs or Mengden?

Paul Sporer: Prefer Mengden slightly

Zip-a-dee-doo-da: If Vlad Jr was called up today, would you drop Kyle Seager for him in a 10-teamer? There are keepers.

Paul Sporer: Ya, just to take the chance on the possible excellence. Worst case is Vlad isn’t ready and you pick up a Seager replica or even Seager himself

Mike: Which sides wins a Stanton & Clevinger vs Acuna & C-Mart trade? H2H categories (obp)

Paul Sporer: Y’all, we really gotta get out of the “who wins” mindset for trades. You’re trying to improve your team, not get one over on a leaguemate. So the context is alllll that matters.

A trade in one league could be amazing and then that same trade could be stupid in another league bc of the team setups and standings. That seems like a fair deal with one side getting the hitter advantage and then the other getting the pitcher adv.

Paul Sporer: I think I prefer Side B slightly just because Acuña could be amazing right off the top and be near Stanton plus CMart > Clevy

Steve: Who is Michael Fulmer?

Paul Sporer: A pitcher for the Tigers

SN: Team A: Gets Baez and E. Suarez

Paul Sporer: Sounds good!

Jorge: Donaldson for Kershaw fair value in a dynasty league? 2 aging elite players with injury concerns

Paul Sporer: Yes, for sure

SureWhyNot: Margot for Luis Castillo in 10T NL only?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Castillo

Rick C: Would you drop Pivetta for Newcomb?

Paul Sporer: No

Shuck Bowalter: When is it too early to concede a fantasy season and sell off some assets?

Paul Sporer: I mean there is no *set* date, you just have to honestly assess your team and if it’s not there, you can start moving

Moelicious: Do you think the DeGrom situation ends well or poorly?

Paul Sporer: Probably poorly 🙁 I just always worry for the worst

yojiveself: buehler screams “meh” to me.  is everyone just excited about the upside?  what am I missing?

Paul Sporer: I dunno, in addition to the upside he already has big stuff that plays at the majors. I just see a really solid arm with huge upside

Otis: Nick Pivetta or Aaron Sanchez 12 team roto?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Pivetta

Chippy: RE: Conforto. Safe cut in 12 team mixed?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d be OK with that

Tim the Tool Man Taylor: Is it time to cut Conforto in all leagues?

Paul Sporer: See above!

Ben: How many more quality starts does Jarlin Garcia have to get before you come around?

Paul Sporer: Come around to what? He’s not a 1.00 ERA pitcher or anywhere near it. I don’t think saying he’s a low-4.00s is shading him at all

Saul Rorer: Confident Marcell Ozuna will get back on track and do as most expected?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’ll be fine

Matt Matheny: What is your general statagy in building a battle royale team on The Show?

Paul Sporer: Common SPs (the reason you don’t take studs is bc you can’t guarantee you’ll get to use them)… maybe 1 bronze SP if you get a round where you don’t want the others. I aim to get a 4 pack of usable RP arms – 2 lefty, 2 righty. If you get a diamond or the right gold, you can just lean on them most of the time. I had a run the other night where Gold Alex Wood and Diamond Greg Holland were the only RPs I used save one fateful at-bat with Barraclough. Then just get a good offense

Carlton: I’m a sad Chris Archer owner. What do I do? Hold and hope for a bounce-back or try to sell off of a decent start?

Paul Sporer: It’s a transparent sell low, so you’ll probably still not get a ton, but you could do that. I’d probably just ride it out, though

Peter: What are your thoughts on Ian Happ? Does he turn it around?

Paul Sporer: I had a lot of excitement for his season, thinking he was more advanced than Baez at the same age because of his 2017, but he might just be another Baez. Not a bad thing in the long term, but not great for ’18. He’s striking out sooooo much. I see some improvement, but nowhere near the level I expected coming into the season

Steve: DARVISH*NEEDS*TO*THROW*HIS*SLIDER*MORE

Paul Sporer: Down just a tick from last yr. I will look into that further, though, when I’m reviewing him

Jorge: Was offered Bauer for Benintendi in a 10 team points league. I have Upton, Blackmon, Yelich, Teoscar, and Conforto as well. We only start 3 plus a utility so I’d rather not hold so many OF and have been trying to sell one for a pitcher. Should I take this deal?

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s good

Ghost of Ned Yost: See enough improvement in Castillo to trot him out for that two start or are you sitting him another week? Not really hurting for the innings or Ks but Im working my era and whip back down after Archer j.Gray Jansen and the recently traded Duffy took a shit on those stats. Also I bought so low in my 16 team dynasty Luis at $6 for Rodon at $4 #notsohumblebrag.

Paul Sporer: I personally haven’t benched him so ya I’m going with it next week in the 2-start. Encouraged by the last outing for sure

Paul Sporer: Alright y’all, I’m gonna go another 15 minutes and then finish up these SP rankings so I can get them posted today

Marco: Is Puig worth a DL stash in a shallow points league?

Paul Sporer: Ya if you’ve got the DL spot, go for it!

Havarti Cheese: 5×5 OBP league — David Peralta or Kevin Pillar ROS?

Paul Sporer: Both looking v nice so far. I’ll go Peralta there

Slapshot: Daniel Robertson has looked pretty impressive early on this season.  What do you expect out of him the rest of the year?  Would you give him a boost for his positional flexibility (he’s eligible at 2nd, short, and 3rd in ottoneu)?

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely interested – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/sporer-report-issue-5-cervellis-powe…

Josh: Btw, the fireside chat was fantastic.  Looking forward to the next one.

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! Look for another this weekend with Nick

Paul Sporer: BTW, Justin is in Hawaii hence no pod yesterday

fat mike: EOS line for the Dentist?

Paul Sporer: .275/9 HR/35 SB

fat mike: like Junis as a top 50 arm going forward? worth stashing in 12-15 teamers?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, around top 50, but that HR9 is rough

Ted: You like Gleyber or Odor more for the rest of the year?

Paul Sporer: Still leaning Odor. I know it’s bleak right now, but I’m not giving up yet

Garrett Richards : You should hold me correct? Really unraveled against the Yankees but come on it’s the Yankees right?!

Paul Sporer: Yeah I can’t cut him. 3.46 ERA and 35 K in 26 IP before the blowup

Tim: LoMo has been killing me, but seems he’s warming up a bit this last week or so. Think he’ll be fine?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d definitely sit tight now that he’s coming out of it

Havarti Cheese: Despite the blazing hot start, Jed Lowrie does not really hold a ton of trade value. Do you buy him as a useful starter 2B, 2B/SS the rest of the season? He will come down to earth some, but he is mashing the ball! 44% hard contact!
5×5 OBP league. 10 team

Paul Sporer: I do buy him. Health is the concern and still a legitimate one at his age, but I believe he’s really skilled. I also agree he doesn’t have THAT much trade value so buying him is relatively easy given his performance

Steve: Speaking of Darvish, I’m very curious about your opinion of him throwing all his pitches versus focusing on using 3-4 and really perfecting those. For instance, his slider is, to my eye, his best pitch and at the very least looks a lot like Kluber’s. Maintaining a feel and command for 5-6 pitches would seem a more difficult task. And with a wipeout slider like his, why not use your best pitch more like others have done (McCullers)? It’s my understanding that with LAD he was mostly fastball, cutter, slider but with CHC they are letting him loose so to speak. Would love to see what you could find here. Thanks!

EDIT: Also, his best year was 2013 when he threw his slider nearly 31% of the time, by far the most.

Paul Sporer: You spent all the time writing that so I wanted to share. Good stuff. Ya I’m thinking more and more that he’s gonna be the guy for the fireside

Biggy: Congrats on the Albies call earlier this year!  Obvious success.  Now………who have you been most wrong about this year so far?  Will they bounce back?

Paul Sporer: Thanks! Luis Castillo was my pitching Albies so that’s definitely the biggest L right now. I’m not giving up yet, but I acknowledge he hasn’t been nearly as good as I expected right away

Big Tuna: Who would you rather have in OPS leagues: Matt Olson or Carlos Santana?

Paul Sporer: Basically a coin toss… I’m leaning Santana. I just think he’s going to explode soon

Biggy: Would you trade Goldschmidt for Hoskins straight up?

Paul Sporer: Speaking of misses, I was pretty down on Hoskins going top 50 and that’s looking silly as he’s just a beast. So ya I’d be fine with that trade

Chris: That Cardi B album pops

Paul Sporer: Agreed. Really impressed with the debut effort

Jeff: How are you handling deGrom going forward? Are you shopping him if he looks normal in his next start?

Paul Sporer: I’m open to it if the returns are viable

Sam: Matt Adams worth a pickup while Eaton is out to start against Righties? He has a wRC+ of 146 in his last 330 PA against RHP.

Paul Sporer: Ya, especially if you can do daily moves

Jackstradamus: Buy or sell Christian Villanueva?

Paul Sporer: He destroys lefties and he’s in the best division to do so. I think he’s got at least another 20 homers https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/sporer-report-issue-4-getchurved/

Mike: Is there any hope for Sonny Gray? Buy-low target?

Paul Sporer: Meh… I was so out on him this year. I didn’t think he was a 6.67 ERA pitcher, but mid-4.00s seemed very real to me coming into the season

tacopocket: moustakas for Paxton seem fair to you or should I avoid buying Paxton due to the injury that is coming?

Paul Sporer: It is fair. You’re taking on risk any time you acquire a pitcher… or any player for that matter. I do believe Paxton has more risk than your average bear, but not enough to dissuade me from acquiring him

Jed: Who ya got: Albies for Hoskins in a keep forever points league?

Paul Sporer: Albiessss

JAL: The Bardi album is fire. Would you stream Caleb Smith at CIN tomorrow and Tyler Mahle v. MIA? TY!

Paul Sporer: Ya I think I’d go with both. Still a little suspicious of Smith, but Cincy’s offense is so bleh

Biggy: Ohtani still a prime dynasty candidate, or has that leveled off?  Or is that simply having two games against Astros and Yankees?

Paul Sporer: Yes he is, I’d definitely be out buying right now while the market has chilled

James: Matt Chapman or Joey Gallo for the next 3 years?

Paul Sporer: Chapman

yinyang: Start or bench Castillo next week vs Mets & @LAD? 5×5 HtH. Last start was much better.

Paul Sporer: I’m starting

Kevin: Tyson Ross and Jake Faria are on the waiver wire, and I can only fit one. Leaning Ross, but not that strongly. Ross the right choice?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I echo your sentiment fully in that it’s Ross, but v close.

Would You Rather: Mengden or Wheeler tonight?

Paul Sporer: Wheels

Vegan Man!: Would you trade Tatis for Votto in a 14 team dynasty points league? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Yes!

Allen: CMart a true ace now?

Paul Sporer: I view him as a fantasy ace, but he’s still developing into a real life ace. Off to a great start results-wise, but the skills aren’t really different to suggest he’s jumped a level or anything

notacop: German Marquez streamable at NYM today?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, road starts definitely appeal to me

Rock Kickass: The Dentist was dropped.  Do I drop odubel for him? I kind of need the steals.

Paul Sporer: Yes. Like what Odie is doing this year, but he’s not a volume runner like The Dentist (DeShields for those who don’t know)

Lewis: Traded my Olson for Carlos Santana? How did I do?

Paul Sporer: Did well! There was a Q about those two earlier and I favored Santana

Dave: How much does Seager’s injury impact your long-term outlook for him, if at all?

Paul Sporer: A little, but it’s not nearly as bad as with pitchers. Sano and Gleyber had it recently, too

Rock Kickass: Are you starting Pivetta tonight v the Nats?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Jorge: Taillon or Clevinger ROS?

Paul Sporer: Taillon, but it’s v close

Alex in Austin: Have you seen this guy Jalen Beeks AAA numbers?  Is he legit?

Paul Sporer: I have actually. I think I’m going to write up some minor leaguers with gaudy numbers, but I gotta do more research on their ability. I know who Beeks is, but not much beyond cursory prospect reports. Hmm, I’m hatching an idea with this… sit tight. I’ll have something next week related to this

Lewis: Franchy or Margot rest of season?

Paul Sporer: I’ve got Franchy Fever!

Vegan Man!: Would you be comfortable selling Albies high in a 12 team h2h if it meant rotating Kinsler and Villar at 2B? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: As long as I’m helping my team, I’m open to it. Gotta be getting something EXCELLENT in return for King Albies, though

Vegan Man!: Nick Ahmed or Ketel Marte in a roto league. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Ahmed

Alex in Austin: Please rank Manea, Snell, Morton?

Paul Sporer: Morton, Snell, Manaea

High 5 Ghost: Thinking about taking a flyer on Teoscar or Franchy…do you have a preference? Or would you stash Calhoun instead? 6×6 lg with walks as a category. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Lean toward Teoscar, but they’re kinda similar in terms of volatility and overall skills potential

Carl: Kipnis or Kinsler rest of season?

Paul Sporer: Kinsler

Wolle: What is up with Benintendi? Super high Medium Hit Rate

Paul Sporer: He’s fine. I’m not worried about the huge Med hit rate. I bet a bunch are *just* below the Hard hit threshold so a hot streak should balance his numbers

Paul Sporer: OK yall, I gotta roll out and get these SP rankings done!

Paul Sporer: Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer)! I’ll be back next week. Look for a podcast this weekend and maybe even a pair of ’em! I’ll be streaming later on Twitch playing MLB The Show. Have a great weekend!