Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 18th, 2018

Paul Sporer: Let’s talk some baseball!!!

Paul Sporer: Seeing Kendrick Lamar, SZA, and Schoolboy Q tonight!

David B.: Sup Paul!

Paul Sporer: Yo!

ryan: My pitchers are Nola, Paxton, Wood, Godley, Quintana, Heaney, Flaherty, Pivetta and Ross.

Drop any for Velasquez, Weaver, Maeda , Mahle or Cahill?

Paul Sporer: Nah, I think I’d stick with that crew. Here are my updated rankings btw – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mid-may-starting-pitcher-rankings-up…

zurzles: With bullpens evolving and getting less predictable, is it time for FBB to switch to what fantasy football does with defense? Every team drafts team bullpens to fill two (or one?) RP slots, and you get 100% of the production of that bullpen. Maybe mix saves and holds into one stat. I’m sick of jumping around LAA’s clown car committee while great middle relievers are largely ignored.

Paul Sporer: I know Holds isn’t perfect, but I think that’s the answer to curb some of that. It gives MRPs value.

Luke: Hyped for the Denver meetup! Excited to meet you guys

Paul Sporer: I’m so excited!!

Dave: In a recent piece Eno seemed convinced that E-Rod is about to take off… you, however, did not rank him particularly generously. What do you see going forward?

Paul Sporer: I like the talent, espec. the Ks, but the BB and HR give me some pause. I can see a path to upside, but I’m not sure I see a major surge coming

seth: Yelich for Archer and Winker?

Paul Sporer: That seems fine in a vacuum

zurzles: Is this just what Franchy is? His BABIP is up there, hasn’t hit a single HR in May. Should I expect more than .260/25 this year?

Paul Sporer: I can’t remember where I heard this comp, but I really like it – Keon Broxton. Alluring set of skills, but major volatility.

AJ: 2B spot in redraft H2H, hold Kingery or drop for Gyorko?

Paul Sporer: I’m torn on this one bc I can see going after Gyorko even for Kingery, but on the larger pt with Kingery, I’m inclined to give him some leash. There was a lot of hype about him coming into the season and I don’t think that hype is gone because of a tough 1.5 months.

Paul Sporer: So it’s a little fence-sitty, but if it’s 10- or 12-teamer, go for Gyorko bc you need performance right now, but maybe look to cut someone else and hang onto Kingery another few weeks

Paul Sporer: I just wouldn’t be surprised if he went off this summer and did what his big proponents thought he might

El Five: Has Evan Gattis turned a corner?

Paul Sporer: Definitely coming out of his slump. He’s always been a plus bat (>100 wRC+ every yr) so it feels like just a matter of time before he gets going assuming health and we’ve seen it over his last 8 (.988 OPS, 3 HR)

Franke: Vlad a top 30 pick next year?

Paul Sporer: 2% chance of that. Let’s get him the majors first

Vegan Man!: Rotation is Kershaw, Ray, Nola, Archer, Castillo, Quintana, Snell and Gray in a 12 team h2h. Look good, or would I benefit from adding 1 more top flight SP (deGrom, Paxton, Greinke, Bauer)? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Definitely looking to add. Lots of volatility in that crew with Kersh, Ray injured and Archer, Castillo, Q, and Gray (assuming it’s Sonny) under-performing

Paul Sporer:

AJ: Domingo Santana or Jorge Soler? H2H redraft, thanks Paul!

Paul Sporer: they’re close for me but I lean Soler

Vegan Man!: You starting Fulmer tonight vs. SEA? 180 start limit in a 12 team roto. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I am, yes

Franke: Soler….believe the .300/.400/.500?

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think he stays where he’s at all year. Gonna bake in some regression, but I believe we’re seeing development from a post-hype prospect we’ve liked for a while

Erik Wright: Hey paulie!!! If Ozzie albies ran for governor would he have your vote? Also is there any upcoming CF prospects that could produce this season coming up that you have your eyes on?

Paul Sporer: I vote for him in anything. Even if he’s not an option.

Paul Sporer: I don’t know if Austin Meadows qualifies at CF (and I’m guessing you cited CF specifically bc you use LF-CF-RF), but I’m intrigued by him. A major post-hype guy who has battled injuries the last couple years. He’ll get a quick look with Marte hurt (oblique), but if he performs, they’ll find more time for him

Jeff: Do you think Jordan Lyles sticks in the rotation? And if he does, will he continue to enjoy any level of success?

Paul Sporer: Yes, they have no reason not to see this through. He’s been pitching well, though we’re weirdly in a spot where dominance from a righty over Colorado has to be considered something of a layup, the way we’d discount a domination of SD or MIA. That said, Lyles has been strong throughout his 32 IP

Moltar: I just want to pour one out not just for Juan Lagares but for every once-promising player befallen by the New York Mets’ medical staff. It was funny years ago, now it’s just sad. And I’m once again vindicated in my stern position to never get any shares of any Met.

Paul Sporer: It’s gone beyond the Mets-Can’t-Stay-Healthy meme into just being sad. Lagares likely out for the year w/toe surgery for those unaware

Troutmaggedon: Where is Mike Trout in your starting pitching ranking?

Paul Sporer: 0th… the absolute top!

Patty V: Is Morton a sell high? Or are his spin rates for realzies?

Paul Sporer: You can sell, but I don’t think you need get out from under an impending collapse or anything. In other words, I totally buy the skills. He has a lengthy injury track record, but everyone knows that, too, and he’s 34 so the ageist fantasy baseball community probably won’t pay up majorly for him. I’m inclined to just ride it out. His price was such that he has a lot of wiggle room to still be a net value even if he regresses

Not a Phillies Fan: I’ve got both Gregory Polanco and Aaron Hicks as replacements for AJ Pollock in a 6×6 OBP league…tell me they aren’t going to hit .220 forever….

Paul Sporer: Two big Sporer faves. I can’t guarantee that they won’t, but I am confident that both will improve. But also, it’s OBP and both are walking a ton so at least their crappy AVG is mitigated some

Dewey: Is Kurt Suzuki just in a slump or has he revereted back to what he used to be?

Paul Sporer: Isn’t it just like a 5-game stretch? Def just a slump. I buy into his skill changes dating back to last year’s surge

Ilya: Hi Paul

Paul Sporer: Hola

SM: Paul are you starting to worry about Aaron Hicks yet or do we trust his great plate discipline and chalk up these struggles partly to babip?

Paul Sporer: Still trusting him

Dewey: Thoughts on this trade:  M. Fulmer, M. Chapman, and M. Semien for J. Berrios and A. Simmons?

Paul Sporer: Looks pretty fair. League context is needed for a firm thought, but looks fine

Tom: Who do you like better ROS: Devers or Candelario? Buxton, Santana or Cordero?

Paul Sporer: That 3B one is closer than we thought coming into the year, that’s for sure. I still lean Devers, though. Buxton for the OF.

Justin: I know these are hard, but I’m trying to shop Donaldson in a points league. What level of pitcher would you be targeting?

Paul Sporer: It’s impossible bc I have no idea what your market will yield. Shoot high, he was a top pick.

David B.: Vlad Jr worth stashing in 9 team roto redraft at this point? Over under getting called up before All Star Break?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, I’d need quite a few reserve spots for that. As far as when he gets called up, I have no idea. It’d be a blind guess. The best prospect analysts don’t know when these guys are coming up and they follow this stuff super closely. My blind guess is late-July

Not a Phillies Fan: Garrett Hampson just got called up to AAA. Plus hit tool, plus-plus speed, great eye, injured 2B in Colorado…am I the only one seeing the value here?? You’ve got to be all over him in a dynasty league!

Paul Sporer: There ya go, dynasty leaguers! They need something to jumpstart their offense!

Dbacks: How worried are you about goldy? And is descalso’s swing change worth picking up with his multi position eligibility?

Paul Sporer: Not worried about Goldy, tbh. Descalso is interesting as he’s absolutely crushing the ball. I didn’t know he made swing changes, I’ll have to do some research on him

Cory: On the pod, when you say “a 12 team standard league”, how many roster spots is that?  20 per team?

Paul Sporer: For me, standard is 2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P bc I’m mostly roto

Terrence Newman: David Price do anything last night to push him up your ranks?

Paul Sporer: Not really. I consider myself higher on him than the market and I’m starting him pretty much all the time

B. Ryce Hammers Luscious Locks: I just did something I never do… added Vlad Jr in a 10 team redraft. Those numbers! Toronto can’t possibly leave him down past June, right? On that note, gonna have to cut Puig when D Murphy gets back… am I crazy Paul?

Paul Sporer: I definitely understand trying to stash and I don’t think it’s *crazy*

Paul Sporer: I was hesitant w/the 9-teamer doing it. But you know what, I’m actually fine with it in any format. Put him on your reserve and hold on as long as you can

Paul Sporer: He can be a major game-changer if/when he comes up

Jed Casey: Ozzie Albies is a top ____ fantasy player

Paul Sporer: 50

Moltar: I asked this same question to Justin the other day but I’m curious about your take on it as well. I know before the season y’all were talking about The Glob, but I see a new glob this season: young, unheralded call-up pitchers. How do you differentiate between guys like Caleb Smith, Soroka, Suarez, Peralta, Barria, Eflin, Koch, Romero, guys like that? Guys who could provide strong value to pitching needy teams if they stay in the majors, but without the pedigree of a guy like Buehler.

Paul Sporer: Ya it’s just a different portion of the glob. There isn’t a TON of differentiation between that group so you have to pick your favorites. The bottom line on The Glob is that the talent is really close so you have to research ’em and find your reasons to pick one over another

Turgid: Remember Christian Villanueva? That was fun

Paul Sporer: Still in a division loaded with lefty SPs, so keep an eye on the schedule for divisional play. Think I said like .245-.250, 30 HR when he was raking in April and I stand by that. Might’ve been high on the AVG, but I buy the pop

Jim Bob: Haniger and Castillo or Stras in a 12 team h2h? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: That’s really close as I still believe in Castillo. Haniger is picking up where his pre-injury time left off last year. I think I’d actually go for the duo despite it being a 12-teamer and I usually go for the best player, but this is a good deal on both sides

Turgid: % chance Tim Anderson goes 20/20 with less than 100 R and RBI combined?

Paul Sporer: 38%

Lance Lynn’s Corpse: Paul, gotta make a tough call in AL Only (6×6, IP and K-BB along with the regular categories).  Do I pick up Lance Lynn and drop Chirinos or Kopech?  Could also drop Rondon or B. Parker, but I’m really hurting for saves.  I know you ranked Lynn a little higher this time, but would you make this move to add him?

Paul Sporer: Hang onto your closers and I think you can do it for Chirinos.

zurzles: ok but even ignoring the holds/MRPs thing it’d still be fun to do bullpen slots

Paul Sporer: It could be interesting to do team bullpens, but I love discovering guys like Chris Devenski, Brad Hand, and Josh Hader ahead of the curve and while that’s still possible w/team bullpens, it wouldn’t be as prevalent

Cole Hamels: If I get traded out of Texas…will I be good again? Especially if I got to the NL?

Paul Sporer: Already pitching pretty well despite the massive HR rate. But ya, leaving Texas could def help that (he’s got like a 2.0 HR/9 at home this yr)

JAL: 12-team 5×5, my Trey Mancini for his Tyson Ross. I needed to shed bats and get a SP. OK?

Paul Sporer: V good deal

Donny: Need a quick jolt of power. Hicks and Fowler are stinking up my outfield. Drop either of them for Duvall? Franmil Reyes?

Paul Sporer: I can move from Fowler for Duvall

Dave: Any interest in a Shelby Miller stash… or is he a wait-and-see?

Paul Sporer: With a DL spot maybe, but not a reserve spot. I usually lay off on the return year from TJ since it’s so volatile

Dave: To put a little more focus on that Gattis question… Gattis or Wilson Ramos ROS?

Paul Sporer: Ramos by a shred

joe: My NL only team is getting killed by Carpenter and Santana.  Any hope for me?

Paul Sporer: I’m not on the Carp bounce back train, but I do think Santana will be fine. I understand the metrics w/Carp, but he’s not healthy and I just don’t see a huge comeback

Bert: Drop Odor or Jose Martinez for Cron?

Paul Sporer: Can’t see Odor being THIS bad, but I’m fine ditching him for Cron

Rick: I have Nick Markakis but need pitching help. Is Markakis for Trevor Bauer a fair trade to offer? Could I get better?

Paul Sporer: It won’t get done even though I don’t think it’s unfair. A lot of folks likely don’t buy into what Markakis is doing and I understand skepticism, but he’s also got great skills underneath this performance so even a pullback should still be good. I just think the market won’t value him that highly

Bert: ROS:  Cron or Davidson?  Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Cron

Turgid: Pick one to start tomorrow Quintana @Cin or Heaney vs TB?

Paul Sporer: I have Q ranked a little higher but in this situation w/these matchups, I’m going Heaney

Vicente Padilla: Sorry I’m tardy to the party.  Do you think Odubel or Albies can keep up their dominance?

Paul Sporer: Both can stay v good for sure, but it’s REALLY hard to play your best baseball for 6 straight months, so both will come down some. Albies is a top 50 guy, Herrera a top 90-100

Paul Sporer: Gotta take Charlotte out then I’ll answer a handful more before wrapping up

Paul Sporer: Pardon the delay

Dov: I’m just throwing this name out there because he’s never discussed but do you have any thoughts on Josh Bell?

Paul Sporer: Solid bat, best used as a CI/UT type. I think we’ll see his power tick up toward last year’s marks

Vegan Man!: Think Christin Stewart will get the call sometime this year and have an impact in a 14 team points league (no negative for K’s)? Thank you!

Paul Sporer: Yes and yes. At 24, there’s no reason for the Tigers to go out of their way to keep him in the minors. Big pop with 39 HRs since the start of last year

Jerry: How long do I hold Conforto in a Roto 12 team mixed league?

Paul Sporer: I’m fine cutting now, tbh

BigAl921: Play Rizzo or Healy?

Paul Sporer: You can’t sit Rizzo

Webster: Fair trade? M Davidson+E Nunez for Mikolos

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s pretty fair in any league

Jake Junis Priest : Trout 0 for last 19. Time to sell!

Paul Sporer: Not even good!

Bryan : Do you think Quintana was overdrafted? This is the 2nd straight year he has started off pretty awful and more importantly his fastball velocity sucks. It seems more often than not when you try to rely on him, he gets rocked. I think we all overvalued his durability vs his stuff.

Paul Sporer: No, there was no reason to believe he’d perform as we’ve seen thus far in ’18 with big BB and HR surges. His velo is fine, espec. for a lefty. He’s pitching poorly, but not in any way that predictable at all so I don’t really think we can then look back and say he was overvalued in the draft market. That’s definitely hindsight 20/20 talkin right there

Nir: bacon or ham?

Paul Sporer: Bacon

GB: I don’t watch any Braves games so just scouting the stats. Are better things ahead for AJ Minter? You boldly predicted he’d reach 100 K after his filthy September last year. At this pace he might not even reach 60.

Paul Sporer: Barring some insane run of 2-3 K outings, he’s not getting 100, but he opened with 0 K in his first four outings. He has 16 in 14 IP since.

Casey: I have one N/A spot and it’s currently occupied by Willie Calhoun. Do I drop him for Vlad Jr?

Paul Sporer: Sure, I can do that. I do like Calhoun and think he has the higher chance to contribute this year (and sooner), but shooting for the moon with an NA spot makes sense and means Vlad Jr. is the play

Austin: Is Goldschmidt valuable as a buy low? I traded Kershaw and Votto for Goldschmidt, Castellanos, Bud Norris and Kenta Maeda in a 5×5 (where you start 2 RP, so I’m excited about Bud Norris having dual qualifications so I can plug him as a starter and accrue saves). Curious about your thoughts.

Paul Sporer: Ya I like buying Goldy. I think he will be fine. We’ll say Goldy/Kershaw kinda cancel out so it’s Votto for Casty, Norris, Maeda which isn’t bad

Tom: Hey Paul, getting a lot of interest in my C Seager share in a 20 team keep 6 forever points league. What level SP word

Paul Sporer: In a keep 6 forever, you can ask for the moon

Sabo Knows Sabo: Dejong DL’ed with a fractured hand. Brutal.

Paul Sporer: Aw man, that sucks!

Paul Sporer: He was beasting again.

OddBall Herrera: Musgrove looks *really* good in rehab.  More Pirates black magic incoming?

Paul Sporer: Not even black magic, he’s just good. Plus they love fastballs and I think they will maximize his

Max: Hi Paul! I know you’re a big Tigers fan. Leonys Martin is coming back soon. His numbers have looked very good (LA  + Hard it both up). How has he looked to the eye?

Paul Sporer: Pretty damn good! I was bummed when he hit the DL. Full disclosure, I’m a Martin fanboy dating back to his time in Round Rock (AAA Texas) and I’ve been dying for a breakout ever since and now he’s on my favorite time. The thing is, he cost nothing so we can just ride it out for whatever he’s got in the tank

Paul Sporer: OK y’all I gotta get going! Thanks for coming out. Look for an extended chat next week on Wednesday or Thursday. I’ll tweet it out for sure. We’ll go 2+ hours at least. Follow me on Twitter (@sporer) and Twitch (psporer24)! Have a great weekend!!!

Jose Quintana : Why so much hate on me?? It’s not my fault the Braves are good and Coors is unfair

Paul Sporer: You’re all good, Q. Don’t sweat it! 🙂

Paul Sporer: OK, bye for real!

Paul Sporer: Damn, one more….

Desperate, Confused Marlins Fan: Paul really fast please im about to leave work! i traded Hanley and Daniel Murphy for Paul Goldschimdt. Did I win that trade? H2H 10 team league.

Paul Sporer: You did well!

Paul Sporer: Byyyyeeee