Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 12th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! I’m late, but I have a pretty good reason: Fireside Chat w/Nick Pollack discussing Luis Castillo will be out later today!

Paul Sporer: Or maybe tomorrow. Not sure, but very soon!

JT: paul,

Paul Sporer: JT!

Airwhite54: Hello sir. My league only has 1 catcher rosters and I have Realmuto as well as Posey. Would you trade Posey for Maeda?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I would. That’s a very nice deal. We mention Maeda on the aforementioned Fireside and both came away positively on him long-term

JT: Paul, in a 12 team roto league with OBP instead of Avg, which OF do you prefer: Robbie Grossman or Tommy Pham?

Paul Sporer: I gotta go Grossman in an OBP league, especially with him running quite a bit (7 SBs)

John: Josh Naylor, you buying?

Paul Sporer: Yes, actually talked about him on my Twitch stream in spring as a longshot 30 HR candidate. Like his game a good bit!

Harris: Bader, ROS projections? Is he fixed?

Paul Sporer: Super encouraged by the K% improvements. Hard to say “fixed” as it’s not like he’s been a high level offensively for a full season, but I like what’s going on right now

TB: Dunning or Smyly?

Paul Sporer: Dunning for me

Chris: What Tigers would you rather have: Goodrum or Castro?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Niko. I don’t think Willi Castro is this bad but I’ll take the HR/SB of Niko

Buddy Cee: Hi there! What to do about Chris Paddack in redraft leagues? He seems really inconsistent, but his trade value doesn’t seem great. Sell-low candidate?

Paul Sporer: I feel like his draft price was low enough to accept this kind of volatility. A two-pitch arsenal breeds that volatility, but I can still see a sub-4.00 ERA with a K per IP.

Henry: Should we start to be pretty worried about DeGrom’s health?

Paul Sporer: No more than the normal pitcher health concerns as far as I’m concerned

Lou Brown: What are your ROS expectations for Nico Horner? OBP league. Considering him for the bench spot now occupied by the injured Ian Happ. Also considering Pravin Smith, for that spot. Or handing on with Happ and dropping Austen Hayes. Thanks in advance.

Paul Sporer: With it being a short IL stint for Nico – expected back this week – I’d stick with him as long as your power is set elsewhere on the roster as he’s a big negative there

Alex: Hi Paul, ride with Hicks in points or hop on with Mullins?

Paul Sporer: Definitely Mullins! Surprised he’s still out there (unless you just mean bringing him up from your bench)

David: Where are we at with Grandal?

Paul Sporer: I’m riding it out, even in 1 C leagues. He’s toting a .116 BABIP and there’s just no way that will maintain. He’s barreling the hell outta the ball and I think he’s still a top 5 C by season’s end. Easy buy for me if someone is selling, too, bc I think there will be a real discount there

Casey K’s ’em: Are the Casey Mize K’s coming? If so, when?

Paul Sporer: Probably in a year or two, but not as a K stud. I still see his peak profile as peak Jordan Zimmermann which might make you think negatively, but that’s bc we’re stuck on recent JZ. At his peak, he was a ratios and volume stud who countered his modest K% by averaging 194 IP per yr from 2011-15

JW: Ynoa. He going to keep this up, or is this a good time to try and sell high?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s ok to check the market and see where people are at with him, but if the returns are modest then just ride it out. There’s a Lamet-lite vibe here where he’s leveraging a 2-pitch arsenal to great effect. He’s not this good, but I still see a high-3.00s/low-4.00s ERA the rest of the way

Master B.: Hey, Paul, I love your stuff!

I have the following players in my perpetual dynasty league:

C. Kelly, D. Varsho, C. Bellinger, A. Kirilloff, T. Casas, G. Lux, V. Brujan, A. Bohm, K. Hayes, S. Torkelson, B. Bichette, W. Franco, A. Martin (M), J. Groshans (M), J. Soto, A. Verdugo, M. Conforto, J. Rodriguez (M), G. Mitchell (M), Y. Alvarez, Y. Moncada, F. Peralta, J. Berrios, J. Luzardo, L. Patino, A. Manoah (M), DL Hall (M) , K. Graveman, J. Karinchak, E. Clase

How stoked should be I be about the next few years?!

Paul Sporer: I usually don’t pick questions that are basically just a flex, but you were so nice in the first line 🙂 But yeah, this is fire and you’re set up very well!

More Cheese On My Whopper?: Freddy Peralta Top 15 Pitcher?

Paul Sporer: That’s too aggressive. Another two-pitch guy who I really like, but definitely don’t see a sub-3.00 ERA holding. He’s throwing some of his best baseball right now, but this is the peak, not a new normal. Top 30 SP for sure, but I can’t go Top 15.

Robert: Dynasty league rebuilder: walsh a good sell high candidate? I also just moved Trevor Rogers for gleyber torres. Good move?

Paul Sporer: I think Walsh will net some big time attention so definitely float him out there and see if you can make tangible improvements. I love Rogers, but that’s a very sharp trade to get Gleyber!

Don Von Handburger: Will Triston McKenzie go deep enough into games to get any W’s?

Paul Sporer: It’ll be a challenge in the short-term

The Gardner: Whatever advice you gave Kyle Gibson last time he mowed your lawn, thank you!

Paul Sporer: Had to help him out, show him some grips, and smooth out his mechanics! He was really grateful!

The Other Castro: Harold Castro is hitting .313. Obviously there’s BABIP luck, but do you see something there?

Paul Sporer: Career .299 in 486 PA, albeit with a gaudy .380 BABIP. I’m kind of impressed that he’s maintained such high BABIPs, but I’m not sure there’s any skill behind doing so, meaning I can’t really get behind him as a fantasy asset

Chris: Thoughts on Castillo and if buying low is a good idea?

Paul Sporer: Got an entire pod w/Nick Pollack on him coming so I’m going to defer to that (out later today or early tomorrow, don’t have a firm time yet). But Justin & I did mention him on yesterday’s pod briefly, too. Buy if hte discount exists

Chris: How do you manage deciding when to start ohtani as a pitcher vs a hitter in leagues that lock each week?

Paul Sporer: I just start him as a hitter every week, tbh. I paid for a hitter and always felt the pitching would be extra. This recent outing is very encouraging and if I need pitching in the leagues where I have him, I’ll start to consider him based on matchups.

Can’t Steal 1st: What’s you prognosis on V.Robles and A.Gimenez? Are they droppable in 12 or 14 team rmixed leagues?

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely concerned about Gimenez bc of his disastrous plate skills (30% K, 4% BB) and think he’s cuttable in 12s for sure and on the fringe in 14-teamers depending who’s available. I’m probably not cutting Robles unless I’m picking up a speed option. I know he only has 2 SBs, but I’m inclined to still hold for those SBs I paid for. If say Robbie Grossman is available, I’d make the move

Colin Weatherwax: First time chatter, long time listener. Please talk about how good Seth brown is.

Paul Sporer: He’s putting in a lot of work and study to become as good as Mitch Moreland, who is a far superior player. Most don’t see him reaching the extreme heights of Moreland, but we respect the effort. 🙂

Paul Sporer: (Just so ppl don’t get the wrong idea, the above is a bit. Colin and I bet on Brown v. Moreland bc he bashed my Moreland pickup, so we’re just memeing!)

Kate: How much of this do you expect to stick for John Means and Trevor Rogers.  Obviously both are pretty darn good, but how good are you expecting once things stabilize?

Paul Sporer: I don’t want to let confirmation bias overwhelm here as I really had high hopes for both coming into the season so seeing them start so strong is very encouraging. Obviously, neither is a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher all season, but I think both are mid-3.00s ERAs, sub-1.20 WHIPs (maybe close to 1.25 for Rogers given his BBs if the hit rate trickles up) with strong K totals the rest of the way. I’m not averse to selling high as the market is hot on both, but if you don’t get what you want, there is nothing wrong with holding

Guest: Which gurriel brother will be better ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m not out on Lourdes (big target coming into the season) and I do believe he’ll iron things out, but big bro is going to still outproduce him thanks in a large part to that strong AVG

Brooks L Pooter: Is Aguilar back to his 2018 form and will he provide salvation for my offense?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s close to 2018 levels and I was quite surprised he got ZERO play in the offseason after a quality effort in 2020 (122 wRC+, .277 AVG, 8 HR in 216 PA). He was dirt cheap and even a waiver pickup in many leagues despite looking like a 30 HR candidate with solid AVG upside

Don Von Handburger: My injured list is more bloated than a preacher at a rib picnic

Paul Sporer: Not sure I’ve ever seen a preacher at a picnic, but I’ll take your word for it. I have one team with sooo many injuries that it almost seems fake so I can relate

Nate Pearson: In 14 team mixed am I worth a hold?  Would need to drop one of Dunning, Montgomery, or Triston to keep him.  I can pick up Montas, Luzardo or Kikuchi as well.  Thanks so much!

Paul Sporer: I prefer Montas. That’s my guy. He has two mega duds and five solid-to-good starts. He’s still outrunning the duds in terms of his composite ERA, but he’s looked sharp in his last 3 after Minnesota ripped him for 6 ER

Kate: Benintendi back to what he was pre-2019 (or at least pre-2020)?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s more 2019 than pre-2019 and I’m concerned by the 5-for-9 on the bases. Hopefully that doesn’t get him a red light from Matheny

Saul Porer: Paul! Any reason to be worried about Conforto yet? Lots of ground balls, max EV down. SSS?

Paul Sporer: Nah, I’m not too worried. Had a similar GB rate last yr and he was still great. The bottom line is there’s nothing actionable as I wouldn’t even bench him let alone come close to cutting him. Hold firm.

Don Von Handburger: In an OBP league, are you starting Yandy Diaz at 1B over Josh Bell?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I think I would. Bell has been roughhhhh

Jason: With OAK, CWS, & LAA upcoming on the schedule, is this when I get sobered up on Michael Pineda?

Paul Sporer: LOL, probably. It’s always too good to be true with Michael Piñata, isn’t it? That said, I’m not benching him.

uru: Odds Manoah gets called up this year?

Paul Sporer: Pretty high. He’s in Triple-A and the Jays rotation isn’t exactly flush with options

Adbert Alzolay: Or Adbert Alzo-truth?

Vader: Alzolay looked great yesterday. Think he’ll be more worthy of ROS H2H pick up over Brubaker?

Waveland: Less fantasy oriented but how do you feel about Adbert Alzolay as a pitcher? Can he remain a starter? How good is He?

Paul Sporer: I wish he had a true third pitch (he does have a 4-seamer and sinker w/the slider, but that’s still 2 fastballs) as that would make his outlook as a starter much better, but that said, we see guys live w/the fastball-slider combo. I think he will survive in the short-term, but if that third pitch doesn’t come to fruition, we might see a relief future (in a yr or 2) for Alzolay. I have him and Brubaker too close to separate them by talent and would rather play it by matchups.

Saul Porer: Are you interested in Luzardo when he comes back? He’s been … not good.

Paul Sporer: I am, yes. It’s been brutal to be sure, but his core skills are still pretty solid and it’s not unreasonable to see the .350 BABIP coming down to earth and helping smooth things out. The 4.28 SIERA v. the 5.27 ERA keeps me encouraged that there’s still reason to invest here

Junior: How concerned are you with Lindor? Think he can still finish the season as a top 5 SS?

Paul Sporer: I’m not overly concerned. The transition to a new team can take some time and he might not even be his usual great self this year, but I think he’s easily much better than this rest of way and would absolutely buy low

Chip: Would you start Mahle in Coors Field in a 12-team H2H?

Paul Sporer: It’s a personal preference thing totally. I am 100% fine with someone basically saying they won’t start anyone outside the top 15 or top 20 in Coors. I love Mahle, but it seems like an unnecessary risk especially since his one main issue are the homers (1.5 this year and career)

Siri: What’s your concern level on Eugenio? Where would you put his O/U HR total?

Paul Sporer: His first 32 gms last yr were pretty close to this awful and then he reeled off a .900 OPS and 8 HR in his final 100 PA. He’s another guy I’d confidently buy low on. I think he still threatens 40 HRs by season’s end.

Chris: Should bumgardner be rostered in all leagues? When/how can you trust him?

Paul Sporer: Yes and I’m more or less setting & forgetting save trips to COL and anything v. the Dodgers. The primary key to his success is being 91+ in velo. Sub-90 in his first 3 starts (and all last yr) and got blitzed for an 11.20 ERA. Got the velo up at 91 or higher since: 5 starts with an .90 ERA, .47 WHIP, and 34 Ks/2 BBs in 30 IP.

D: Would you drop Sano for Asdrubal Cabrera (standard 5×5 roto)

Paul Sporer: I am completely fine w/that

Guest: Willie Calhoun has really good statcast batted ball #s (0.364 xwOBA) this year….except for barrels.  Do you think he is an empty batting average guy?  Or will he turn his hit tool into more of a HR threat?

Paul Sporer: No, I still think there is some real pop (25-30) in this bat. I think we are in the midst of his breakout season

Crystal Ball Q: Blake Snell will record a QS within his next ___ starts.

Paul Sporer: 2… at home v. COL next week

Joe: I did not intend to punt saves, but I’m in last place in the category and nothing I’m doing seems to work. At what point do I stop chasing?

Paul Sporer: When it starts to look like you need to find TWO closers just to make up a spot or two in the standings. If you’re still like 7-8 SVs from 6 pts in the standings (just making up some numbers, these aren’t hard & fast), then I’d keep chasing

Mooseknuckle Curves: Where have you been Paul? The internet misses you.  I wanted to lambaste you for overvaluing F Montas the last two years and bringing my teams down with you, but then I noticed you had disappeared. Now that ol’ Frankie has rattled off a couple good starts, you’re showing your writing face around again? Are these events actually related?

Paul Sporer: I have to imagine this an attempted troll which is all good, but if it’s serious, then get real… I’m on the internet every single day, lol. I have never run from a prediction or player I love. If you’re wanting to dunk on me every time Montas has a bad start, I guess you’re free to do so, but you’ve already seen how bad that would’ve gone for you so maybe your misguided notion that I “disappeared” saved you from some embarrassment. All that said, I can’t be held responsible for your ability to navigate to twitch.tv/sporer 5-6 nights a week if you have something to discuss.  😏

Jerry: I have Tatis and picked up Wander for insurance. Is there any way Wander does not come up this year?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think it’s possible. I will say, I was leaning that he wouldn’t come up this year if they slotted him in AA to start, but being in AAA certainly makes it a lot more likely that we see him eventually. I still see Brujan and maybe even Taylor Walls coming up ahead of him depending on length of need, but I’d say it’s about a 30% chance we don’t see him this year. I was at like 60% when I thought he’d start in AA.

Don Von Handburger: Wander Franco date: June 15th. Are you betting on earlier or later?

Paul Sporer: Obviously it’s hard to say bc injuries can change things on a dime, but assuming there isn’t an obvious need and/or Wander doesn’t light Triple-A on fire, I’ll say later.

Brad: Short-term projections for Larnach?

Paul Sporer: bad AVG w/some pop. admittedly a bit of a basic take for a rookie, but that’s where I am until I get a good look at him

Smokin Lowed: Assuming both remain on track and return in June, you prefer Soroka or Framber in points leagues? Thanks as always!

Paul Sporer: New news out on Soroka is bad. Close to just punting ’21 for him, tbh.

Smokin Lowed: Looks like Soroka set to have exploratory surgery. Bummer.

Paul Sporer: Nvm, you saw it. Sorry, queue is a bit backed up

Mooseknuckle Curves: Ha no actually I was totally kidding but also I have actually been looking for your content and didn’t know to look for you on twitch.  Montas isn’t your fault, but I do think you had him too high on your pre season ranking

Paul Sporer: I’m glad I said that thing about a troll at the outset bc I thought it might be playful, but I decided to defend myself a smidge just in case. But yeah, twitter (@sporer) and twitch (also @sporer) are the best places to reach me absent this chat which sometimes does get shelved though we should be pretty consistent the rest of the season!

DerrickA: Arrival date for Logan Gilbert?

Paul Sporer: Just as a general rule, I’ll usually ignore these bc it’s literally impossible to make a good call. I’m not trying to chastise you specifically for asking as I totally get why we want to know, but guys like Eric Longenhagen who do prospect study for a living are barely equipped to make these calls meaning I have no chance. The thing is that needs are just unpredictable so a gameplan can be thrown out the second a team experiences a big injury. Plus, prospects can move their date up by dominating above expectations. I’m hoping for Gilbert sometime in the 1H and if he Seattle continues to play well, I think they’ll be inclined to bring him up, but it is guesswork.

Marco: Is Woodruff (my best sp) + conforto too much for soto or freeman in an obp league (12 teams redraft h2h).

Paul Sporer: Honestly, that’d probably what it’d take. Are you getting enough hitting juice moving from Conforto to Soto to give your ace? I tend to think not so I wouldn’t want to make such a trade. If you start with Woody, go lower on the hitter going back.

Don Von Handburger: Do you talk a lot of trash on your league messageboards, or is that not your style?

Paul Sporer: Don’t really do much on the leaderboards, but love cutting up with leaguemates in twitch chat or on text like Colin and I are doing w/the Moreland-Brown thing

Jerry: Wander is 100% coming up this season (barring an injury)

Paul Sporer: We’ll see. Tampa Bay slow roasts, he’s just 20, and they have other MI options. I mean, I have it at 70% so I definitely see it, but I don’t think it’s the slam dunk that many do just bc of the org. in question

Guest: Are you still holding on Happ to see if he turns it around?

Paul Sporer: If I can, but if injuries have piled up in leagues of FEWER than 15 tms, I understand if he becomes a cut for someone

Tony: Points leagues are a much better depiction of real baseball and how to use that knowledge to be a successful fantasy player. Real baseball doesnt accumulate stats and then see who wins the World Series. For more skill goes into winning each week than compiling. Argument?

Paul Sporer: At the risk of being flippant, who cares? I understand the elevator pitch of fantasy baseball is build a team and pretend to be a GM, but nothing about fantasy truly emulates being a GM so I’m not really worried w/playing the best format that most closely resembles “real” baseball. I just play what brings me the most fun. I’ve come around big time on H2H pts lgs in recent yrs and really enjoy them, but I still love roto, too. Play what brings you joy, it really is that simple!

Skylark: Traded mccullers for suarez in obp fwiw

Paul Sporer: I’m cool w/that. Perfectly fair deal, IMO

Tony: Shane McClanahan… how was no one talking about him yet everyone loved him at the jump?

Paul Sporer: Prospects are a helluva drug! A sexy debut helped, too, but I think the hype has been curbed by the fact that he didn’t look like a 6-inning guy off rip both due to his arsenal and history plus TB’s deployment of young arms so the fantasy upside is a bit limited as we’ve seen w/3 straight 4-inning starts

Logan Gilbert: I’ve been called up

Paul Sporer: LOL omg

Paul Sporer: That’s so funny, riiiight after that whole diatribe about not knowing when

Paul Sporer: BTW, Corbin Burnes confirmed his IL was COVID positive and not just protocol

dave in slc: still no updated pitcher rankings? Honestly i wish i could pay to support you guys on paetron but i am stretched thin and try to support this site and have missed that type of content

Paul Sporer: I will be getting an update SP ranking on FG by next week. I have an unplanned day trip to help my mom tomorrow that basically eats my whole day so I won’t be able to get it this week. While the Patreon SP rankings will be updated more often, I’m not going to stop posting the monthlys on FG.

Jem: would you trade Civale for Luis Castillo?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I would

pat burrell’s ghost: dear paul should i drop alzolay for logan gilbert in a QS league? this would be my last SP spot. thanks!!!!!!!!!!

Paul Sporer: Ahh that’s tough. Alzolay is throwing well and gets a 2-step next week. I’m inclined to stick w/the guy doing it already instead of gambling on the shiny new toy. Anyone else you can cut?

Jasper: Zac Gallen seems pretty high for Eno, Fangraphs, PitcherList etc. but he’s started off pretty slow (minus the CG). I’m assuming you are all seeing something that would make you believe his 2020 version is coming?

Paul Sporer: Has he started slowly? Given his outlook after the injury and concerns that he’d be in big trouble, this start feels incredible. Hell, even w/out an injury concern ahead of the season, I feel like a 3.04 ERA and 1.20 WHIP w/32 Ks in 26.7 IP is really strong. I’m in on Gallen for sure.

pat burrell’s ghost: kikuchi but he’s doing ok too

Paul Sporer: Yeah that’s tough. I get wanting to get him bc of the promise, but how likely is it that he outperforms Kikuchi or Alzolay immediately? Not that high, IMO. I’d be inclined to hang on as opposed to cutting a well performing arm

Fuman Highter: Is Patrick Corbin a good buy low?  I just said Corbin last time and obviously I would buy low on Corbin Barnes if I w

Paul Sporer: It’d have to be DIIIIRRTTT cheap for him as I have some real concerns that I don’t see being easily fixed.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I have to head out. Thanks so much for coming out and keeping the queue super-full! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). My next stream on Twitch will be a 12-hour monster start at 2pm CT on Friday and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!