Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 3rd, 2017

Paul Sporer: Hellooooo!!

Cronut Burger: Would you be so kind as to share your thoughts on Bregman vs Benintendi? I have to choose between the two in my AL-only keeper league and I’m super torn. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I understand being torn, I totally get that. I’ve been taking Bregman earlier as I think he’ll have a little more punch, but honestly it’s a preference kind of pick in an AL-only. If you want a firm answer: Bregman.

Alan: JD Martinez (20th round) or Freddie Freeman (10th round) in a keeper league? Rounds are nice for JDM, but Freeman three years younger.

Paul Sporer: Freef is younger, but JDM is hardly old at 29 and it’s 10 rounds!! I gotta go JDM.

Tony: Jurickson Profar has eligibility at five positions and makes for such an ideal late round flier. What do you expect from him this season?

Paul Sporer: .260 and a double-double and of course the upside for much more as he is still just 24 years old. Automatic late rounder IMO

AL-only Guy: There are literally no steals available at my upcoming 11-team $260 AL-only keeper league auction. As a result, Jean Segura is likely the guy being targeted by all the GMs in my league. I have very good keepers, so I can afford to overpay up to a reasonable amount. I really need him to shore up my speed, so what’s the very, very most I can drop on him yet still sleep at night?

Paul Sporer: $32-35? Inflation is probably already in play at a general level and then you’re adding more bc of the SB scarcity.

Robbie : Please rank: Holliday, Haniger, Ellsbury, Souza, Pillar. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Holliday and Pillar my favorites, but Haniger is on the rise and will jump in the March update for me: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-outfield/

Brendan: How much does resolution on Kang’s legal situation in Korea boost his stock in your 3B rankings?

Paul Sporer: Not much. He could still get an MLB suspension, but even if he doesn’t, he’s in a group of similar 3B so he might move up within that, but I’m not moving up many rounds at large

Willie: Hey Paul – Like everyone else, starting to notice S. Miller a little. Would you drop DeSciafani (my SP8) to take a shot with him? Thanks

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t shut up about Miller last year and that blew up in my face, but I’m actually staying aboard the hype train (which is completely empty except for a guy who fell asleep). I think Disco a WYSIWYG kinda guy, so ya I’d take a shot on Miller’s upside. I was already the high guy on Miller in our Feb ranks and he’s going up in March

Chad: Thoughts on Gerrit Cole vs Rich Hill. In an 18 person points league and have to choose between Cole for $17 or Hill at $10.

Paul Sporer: Still a huge Cole fan and think he has ace potential if healthy, but the health is uncertain so with the savings, I’d go Hill.

donnie: There’s been some sneaky DJ LeMahieu helium hidden in a few FG and RG articles last couple weeks… what’s not to like after pick 80 or so in 5×5?

Paul Sporer: Ya the only thing against DJLM isn’t even related to him, it’s that the position is deep. But in the 80s, he’s a solid pick

Prodigy: Is it in my best interests to drop the required $10 on a guy like Vogt/Beef Wellington in an AL-only, or can I get away with $1 flier on Gomes/Zunino/J. McCann?

Paul Sporer: I drop the $10. Endgame closers are the single worst investment you can make. They almost always lose money.

RLC: In an NL-only using QS instead of W, should I keep $11 DeSclafani or $6 Gsellman?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Gsellman at half price as Wheeler’s health remains an issue Gsell’s stock rises

RyGuy: What a way to while away the last remaining minutes of a week, PAULY THE BEST!

Paul Sporer: Thanks! 🙂

Hockey Fan: It seems like what separates Cruz and K. Davis is .40 in AVG. How do you put a value on that? For example, how much more for Cruz should I pay at an auction?

Paul Sporer: It’s probably worth around $10, but then chop a few off to counter the age difference, so I’d say $7-8 split

Eric: Thoughts on Brock Stewart?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t given him a strong enough look to have a concrete opinion, but Eno is hyped on him

YKnotDisco?!: What music do you have going through your head right now?

Paul Sporer: It’s not going through my head, it’s playing right now. My new heat:

bl27: + / – 170,5 IP for Rich Hill and Lance McCullers ?

Paul Sporer: Combined? Over. I think they can make it 250.

Paul Sporer: Individually, under for both. I’ve got Hill for 130, Mc for about 150 … I know that’s 280, the 250 was conservative

DB: 16 team keeper league (keep 8 forever)…my Edwin for his Schwarber. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Fair for the keeper aspect, much prefer EE this year, though

John: 2C league, McCann worth keeping over an upside play like Bundy?

Paul Sporer: You mean Bandy? James or Brian McCann?

CB : Thinking of going with eno’s recommendation of getting a top five pitcher and than pairing him with a couple SP “fours”. Who would you target in that grouping? Norris, Eickhoff, Bundy, Cotton?

Paul Sporer: All of em! Big fan of that group. We discussed Eickhoff yesterday on the pod and I got re-hyped on him. I liked him after ’15, but ignored him last yr https://t.co/Ce8IQdwBZy

Paul Sporer: Eick and Cotton are my faves of the group btw

Willie: I’ve heard 3 “experts” recently (Mish, Del Don and Zola) advocating Kershaw at Pick 1 this season. I have the 4th pick in a 15 team roto and still lean towards Bryant rather than drafting him there. Am I crazy? I just keep thinking If I take Kershaw at #4, the best bat I end up with is my 25th ranked bat. Uggh

Paul Sporer: Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson are actually at the forefront of the movement dating back to last year. I still remember being laughed at for advocating Kershaw in the first round a couple years ago. You’re not at all crazy for preferring Bryant, there isn’t a RIGHT answer, but I still think Kershaw/Votto (or whomever it is in the 2nd) bat is a perfectly strong combo vs. Bryant/Kluber

justin: Who are your top 4 NL only hitters (OBP, RBI, R, HR, SB-CS, XBH)?

Paul Sporer: Arenado, Bryant, Goldy, Harper

Matt: this question might be the most obscure of the day but any direction on leagues that are available just for kids…specifically an 11 year old girl? She is super keen!

Paul Sporer: Not familiar with anything specifically kid-related, but you could do what Matthew Berry did and start a league for your girl and her friends & family members of those friends. He did it with football with resounding success

bl27: as late round option, Cody Reed or Jose Berrios ? why

Paul Sporer: Berrios

Horn Please Thank You: White Sox cut Brett Lawrie – this has to change your valuation for Moncada for 2017, right? I was pessimistic previously, but it’s hard to imagine Yolmer Sanchez still starting in June

Paul Sporer: Some, sure, but this is automatically to clear room for Moncada. They have Saladino they like, too. Not that he’s better than Moncada, but I don’t Moncada gets to just learn on the job at MLB. Is Yolmer formerly Carlos Sanchez?

Frenchy: OBP 3 yrs of Springer or 2 of Joc+4 of Bellinger?

Paul Sporer: the Dodgers!

Troy: About half of the closers are being kept in my AL-only league. The top 4 options available are Britton, Chapman, Kimbrel and Herrera. I really want Herrera, because I feel he should go for $7-$10 less yet still be elite. How do I play this at my auction? Do I call him in first, last, or just let it unfold organically and hope for the best. Any advice you can give is extremely appreciated.

Paul Sporer: Throw one of the other 3 first, let them set the market

Bubba: Any thought on KDS drafting strategy? I’ve always heard just take the highest available slot – you agree? Thanks

Paul Sporer: You can’t really go wrong adhering to that, but I kinda like that 9-15, so if you find yourself with none of the top 3-4 available, then jump to the backend and still get a stud bat then an earlier 2nd pick

Hot: I’m convinced that there will be at least one Texas batter that turns out to be a huge help in AL-only leagues, similar to Mazara last year. Is it Profar? Deshields? Other?

Paul Sporer: I like Profar as mentioned earlier. I had some love DeShields last year, but he has fallen out of favor

CB : I really like Mike Montgomery as a late round SP with that defense behind him and the cubs offense to produce runs. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I dig it. He doesn’t have a role yet, but that’s what makes him so cheap. Eno co-signs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016s-best-pitches-thrown-by-starters/

mark: I’ve got one ace in my 15-teamer and have waited past the Top-25 for my SP2. Who are some of the 2s and 3s you give the best chance of making the leap that I could buy a few of in hopes of landing another ace?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-leap-year-nl-edition/ http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-leap-year-al-edition/

Kevin: Maeda or Hamels? this season only, same cost

Paul Sporer: I said Maeda, consensus said Hamels http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-starting-pitcher/

Shelby Miller: Am I good again?

Paul Sporer: You were always good in my heart, Shelbias!

Jonesy: Paul – Thanks for helping me choose between Cotton and Gsellman – I actually ended up with both! Feelin’ good, feelin’ great!

Paul Sporer: Could see both surging up draft boards as we push into mid-late March

Orange Whips: Hey Paul, season defining question for me. Need to pick three keepers. Each can only be kept for one more year after this one. OBP/SLG/NSB league. Dahl $5, Mazara $5, Benintendi $5, Bregman $5, Schwarber $10. Thank you, very much appreciated!

Paul Sporer: I’m a little gunshy on Dahl right now – www.denverpost.com/2017/03/03/david-dahl-back-injury-rockies/ so I’m going Beni, Breg, and Maz. Schwarber would be in if he was $5, too, but at 2x the cost, I prefer the others

Jim: Yahoo’s default rankings have Joc Pederson at #72 overall, which is killing me because it’s going to mean someone in my league will blindly take him before I want to. High early are you comfortable going with him if your projections love him (OBP and SLG 6×6)? And in general do you consider this a strategy you need in snake drafts. Reaching before you’d like to because of default rankings and finding value later.

Paul Sporer: This is a VERY important factor. Know your league outlet’s defaults if you’re drafting online. That will absolutely influence the draft. I’m comfortable jumping him up a little to get him. Get your guys! He was 40th in OPS last year, this league format fits him to a t.

Orange Whips: Hey Paul – can we get a SV+HLD option in the auction calculator? They are currently just separate categories, and when you check both is wreaks havoc with all of the auction values.

Paul Sporer: I’ll mention it!

Paul Sporer: OK, it’s been mentioned!

Mike : Meadows vs Bellinger? Who do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: Bellinger. Better chance for ’17 impact and just as much of a stud prospect long-term

Simon Says: Best late round flier: Tilson, Revere or M. Smith?

Paul Sporer: I think Revere gets back to .290/30 SB with any health

JDubz: Hey Paul – who are you buying more stock in – Zach Davies or Tyler Anderson? Why?

Paul Sporer: It’s close. I’ve got Davies a bit higher. As much as I like Anderson, he still has to combat Coors so even though he seems to have found some success tactics there, it’s hard to consistently defeat that beast.

Drew: Which one would you drop in an 18 team, 5×5 (w/OBP) mixed league: Carpenter at $30, Rajai Davis at $5, Votto at $36, Solarte at $4? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I like GOATlarte (his nickname from MLB The Show bc I absolutely rake with his card), but Carp and Votto are OBP game-changers and Rajai is an SB game-changer so RIP GOATlarte

Jeffrey: Paul love your chats! Do you see the Angels giving 500+ ABs to Luis Valbuena this year? What should we expect from him?

Paul Sporer: Thanks! He’s only gotten 500+ PA once so I’d say no, not by design at least. He’ll offer some punch on the platoon, but he’s a 350-400 PA kinda guy

Unicorns: Is 3B the position with the most depth this year in fantasy? I can count up to 13-15 American League eligible players I would feel fine having start for me.

Paul Sporer: Or 2B, yeah. Oddly enough, 1B is the thinnest infield (minus C) position

Marc: Last Keeper spot 12 team league keep 10: Given Price’s news (esp if bad) drop him for Tanaka Duffy or Taillon? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’d be OK keeping Duffy or Tanaka over him, even if it’s not the TJ hammer.

Scuba Steve: I need a lottery ticket/potential ace on my AL Only bench and I don’t care about this year. Would the right order be Honeywell/De Leon/Berrios/Giolito?

Paul Sporer: No, if it’s long-term, then it’s probably Giolito, Honeywell, Berrios, De Leon for me. Gio’s stock has fallen, but let’s not get tooooo crazy over last year. Still plenty of upside here.

Larry David: Hey Sporer, would you be able to rank these players in terms of “safety” and “awesomeness” in a points league keeper: AJ Reed, Reynaldo Lopez, Joe Musgrove, Matt Shoemaker, Robbie Ray (those K’s though!). Think I can only hold on to 2 of them, afraid Lopez is going to be a reliever.

Paul Sporer: Shoe, Ray, Musgrove, Lopez, Reed – Musgrove and Lopez are v close, btw

Gest: If you could watch only 3 players this spring training, who would you choose?

Paul Sporer: Harvey, Cole, Rodon, looking for health from the first 2 and evolving FB command from Rodon

pH: How much has the Eduardo Rodriguez stock risen in the last 24 hours?

Paul Sporer: Some for sure, but stay woke on his health risks, too

Marc: Struggling between Duffy (better numbers) and Taillon (i am a yinzer homer TBH) for my last keeper spot. Am I crazy for even thinking of keeping Jamo over Danny?

Paul Sporer: No, not crazy. I prefer Duffy, but I don’t think you’re out of bounds. I’m going to raise Taillon quite a bit in my March update. He just doesn’t have the K upside of Duffy, but everything else is in place for a 190 IP strong season

Rebel IPA: Do you think there is a realistic path for Park breaking camp with the Twins? Or do you think they will keep him in AAA to get regular at bats in the beginning?

Paul Sporer: He probably has to keep raking all March to do so. They did DFA him after all

Frenchy: With Lawrie getting cut, does Moncada now get around 450 PA in the majors?

Paul Sporer: A firm maybe! LOL. I’m hearing speculation that this could be more than just on-field for Lawrie so it might not have been done just to clear room for Moncada

Bonjour, Paul: Would you be so kind as to share some late round fliers we should be targeting to round out our outfield? A few in both leagues would be dreamy. Merci!

Paul Sporer: Peralta, Puig, Conforto, Toles; Choo, Haniger, Revere, Joyce

Chris: Why don’t teams like the Dodgers / Cubs / Astros turn their 5th starter spot over to young upside arms (Wood / Montgomery / Musgrove) with talent as opposed to older low ceiling experienced arms like it seems?

Paul Sporer: Because the relative certainty of inning fulfillment by the staid vets, plus they’re all competing so they’re more risk averse there. There’s a lot to be said for having “done it” and while a McHugh or Fiers might not have a ton of fantasy viability, teams value the ability to go 6 IP regularly and not implode.

bl27: I don’t know if Kang will be punished by MLB or his team, but last season he was on a very interesting pace. 318 AB, 21 HR – 62 RBI. Projected to finish with 34 HR – 101 RBI in (only) 550 AB. 30 HR 90 RBI possible ?

Paul Sporer: Can’t just extrapolate, though, it doesn’t really work that way. I’ve been pro-Kang’s bat since he got here after reading Dan Farnsworth’s piece and then talking to Dan further in Arizona that year, but I’m just skeptical on him avoiding trouble and I’m also concerned that he may not be right mentally given all this trouble. He’s at a price where it’s easy to gamble, but I’ve dimmed expectations

Bubba: How many leagues do you play in each season? I am in 5 (4 daily and 1 weekly) and trying to resist the urge to add another weekly. I normally have an hour or two each day to spend on fantasy sports.

Paul Sporer: Fight the urge!! I’m paring down this year and hoping to be under 15!

Prodigy : Thanks for answering my catcher question. One follow up if I may, do you prefer Vogt or Castillo?

Paul Sporer: Vogt

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-catchers/

John Wayne: Benintendi is a top 15 OF by end of season; buy or sell?

Paul Sporer: Sell hard

Connor: Could we see a change in the way teams use their pitchers in the next 5-10 years, especially given health concerns with pitchers today. I could see a scenario where teams will use a particular pitcher for a couple of innings once every couple of days. For example, for a particular game, the Cubs will use Lester for the first 3 innings, then get two innings from Carl Edwards Jr., then 2 innings from Kyle Hendricks, and so on. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: We’ll see. They could embrace this bullpenning method as advocated by Brian Kenny, but RPs get hurt plenty, too, so I don’t think limiting to 2-3 IP stints will greatly curb injuries. It’s not the innings, it’s the all out effort for those innings that is causing the injuries.

I think we’re more inclined to see a throwback to yesteryear where firemen will return and some RPs will be asked to go 2 IP more regularly as we saw in the playoffs. Probably need 2 guys to do it bc you can’t run Miller into the ground for 162 and then expect him to pitch in the playoffs like he did last year.

NCKLM: 12-team roto, 5×5 w/OBP & QS, $260 cap. Keep 3: Bryant ($24), Thor ($30), J. Turner ($4), Dahl ($4), Darvish ($5), A. Sanchez ($3), J. Gray ($3). The discount on Bryant almost certainly makes him a must keep IMO. Also probably stay away from Dahl w the back issue…

Paul Sporer: Not *almost* certainly, it CERTAINLY makes him one. Turner and Darvish are the others for me.

Michael: What are your thoughts on Orlando Arcia long-term? Is Alcides Escobar a good MLB comp?

Paul Sporer: Better IRL than fantasy and yes, Alcides is a strong comp IMO

Sonny: At basically $0 is Severino worth a flier this year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, still a helluvan arm

George is Curious: Paul’s gut feeling says that Price is a) out for 1-2 months, or b) out for the season?

Paul Sporer: B :((((

Berti: Hi Paul! Working on my final two keepers in a H2H single C league. Odubel Herrera in the 24th, Colome in 23rd, Gattis in 20th. Do you think Gattis will get enough ABs to be worth the keep?

Paul Sporer: Ya I do think he gets enough PT and 20th round is nice. I’d go Gattis and Odubel.

Pipater: 14 Team Mixed Keeper … Thoughts on a $7 Tommy Joseph

Paul Sporer: Solid guy. Could pop 30 HR with full time and I don’t see a lot of players pushing for his time at 1B. Keepable at $7, but not necessarily automatic.

J-KC: Kershaw at $41 or Duffy at $4 Keeper? 23 year league, inflation is always 23%’ish

Paul Sporer: Love the savings on Duffy, but I think you’re actually getting substantial savings on Kersh at that inflation so I’m going with him

Fake Bork: Villar is going to be eligible all over the IF this season, assuming he starts the year at 2B. Where does it make the most sense to play him if I have SS covered? 2b seems deep with good 2b, but 3b seems deeper with good hitters, if that makes any sense… feeling like Turner at 3B is a great late round pickup.

Paul Sporer: 2B and 3B are both v deep so let the draft dictate that to you. I like getting Justin Turner later on for sure.

80 grade question asker: paul i cant wait for fantasy baseball. i dont have a question today, but im a good question asker fyi

Paul Sporer: lol thanks

Larry David: Update that will surprise no one: Huston Street injured

Paul Sporer: No waaayyyyy

Paul Sporer: That sucks. Could be the end for Street if it’s bad.

Jeremy: Keep two: LeMahieu, Cueto, Strasburg, Carrasco

Paul Sporer: Cueto and Stras

Onslow: How do you feel about punting SPs? I’m in 5×5 h2h league and since SPs were heavily overdrafted, my best SPs are mccullers and paxton.

Paul Sporer: Going to take a lot of legwork in-season to stay on the wire looking for the next Duffy and Paxton, but it can be done

Todd: Dynasty league, keep forever. Would you rather have Eloy Jimenez, Gleyber Torres or Austin Meadows?

Paul Sporer: Gleyber slightly over Meadows

RK: What was your “real world” job before fangraphs/fantasy baseball?

Paul Sporer: I worked at Dell

Paul Sporer: Then at Tableau

YKnotDisco?!: I love how they tweaked that beat from it’s original Techno roots. Loved it. New update: what now?

Paul Sporer:

Big Tuna: What do you watch for in spring training? What influences your rankings?

Paul Sporer: Not much, it’s mostly background noise, but I will keep an eye on health concern SPs. Wanna see how the reports on the stuff looks, how’s the velo, are they reaching their pitch thresholds, etc.? We discussed this on the pod yesterday, too. I asked Eno the same Q.

Hannah Hochevar: You’ve shown historic love for Carlos Santana. Would I be foolish to keep him at $25, ALonly OBP? Auction Calc has him a few dollars above that, but not much…

Paul Sporer: Not at all. He’s awesome in OBP!

Pipater: who do you like more…Finnegan or Folty?

Paul Sporer: Finny, but Folty was only 8 spots behind which is nothing in that range (they were both in the 70s)

Big Tuna: Brett Laurie was just cut. Should I care for fantasy?

Paul Sporer: Only if they make it clear that it was FOR Moncada, though I’m not sure he’s ready so he’d be learning on the job and probably turn in a relatively meh fantasy season

Paul Sporer: It’ll raise Moncada’s cost for sure

Big Tuna: Who would you keep in 12 team ops: Pollock in 11th, Maikel in 15th, Salazar in 18th or Mazara in 19th?

Paul Sporer: Pollock

Greg: Can we expect Odorizzi to get any better?

Paul Sporer: *expect*? no; hope? sure. There’s some room for growth and a career year, but he has been pretty similar these last three years

Chaz: Thoughts on Mike Montgomery this year?

Paul Sporer: I like him as a late-round gamble. Brett Anderson has had major health concerns throughout his career and Lackey is an aged fellow so opportunity could pop up for Monty

Marc: 5×5 OBP league keep forever. Dahl Joc or K. Davis?

Paul Sporer: Joc

John: Will Meadows actually play this year in the majors? If so, any value?

Paul Sporer: Not without a major injury, but if so, yes

99: Keep Nola at $10 or McCullers at 11$? Can keep both or neither.

Paul Sporer: I’d keep McCullers. Only keep one as both have real injury risk

Jack’s Smirking Revenge: Hey Paul, is getting Strahm plus a lotto ticket prospect bat worth dealing CJ Cron in a 20 team deep dynasty? not contending this yr

Paul Sporer: Yes it is

mark: Which arms after SP30 do you give the best chance of making the leap to SP1 this year? Gimme 5 in order of likelihood? thanks!

Paul Sporer: www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-leap-year-nl-edition/ www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-leap-year-al-edition/

John: I am holding on to Brett Honeywell in a dynasty league. Is he a legit fantasy pitcher in a couple years? What kind of upside?

Paul Sporer: Brent Honeywell has solid mid-rotation upside. I’m not sure he does much this year, but ’18 and beyond looks good

Charlotte!!!: Thoughts on Harvey this season?

Paul Sporer: Waiting to see some spring starts. Thoracic outlet surgery is still pretty new and the results aren’t great so far, but he’s one of the younger ones to get it.

Chris: Strasburg or Darvish?

Paul Sporer: Darvish

Paul Sporer: All of our rankings are available in the sidebar labeled positonal rankings – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ and the spreadsheet is here: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/rotographs-rankings-spreadsheet-update/

Connor: How will the Brewers rotation look after Guerra and Davies? They currently have 6 starters. Does Chase Anderson get moved to the pen?

Paul Sporer: Get a barf bucket

Paul Sporer: I have some NL-only love for Wily, but that’s about it

John: It seems like Moncada is always criminally underrated, even as a keeper. Am I missing something? To me he seems like a no-doubter long term keeper and has huge upside.

Paul Sporer: How so? I definitely don’t think so as a keeper, but I don’t think in redrafts, either. Elite prospect for sure, but a 22 yr old with 45 gms at AA. Just not sure he’s ready. But no one disputes his upside

Penguin: Also would you be able to link the article that helped find leagues here? Much appreicated

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/looking-to-fill-your-league-or-join-a-league-click-here-2/

Onslow: Who gets more innings: Gsellman or De Leon?

Paul Sporer: Gsellman

bernie: Would you trade Benintendi (5) for Diaz (10) and Fulmer (5)?

Paul Sporer: I could do that. Fair deal, IMO

Sonny: Re your Verlander/Lester question from the pod I expect the team around Lester to cover any gaps in performance. In 25 less IP and 40 less K he might get 3 or 4 more W (I know I know but it’s still a category), plus better rate stats.

Paul Sporer: Virtually the same FIP, though, so without a repeat of 85% LOB, I’m not sure he has much of an ERA advantage. I mean, we did discuss the team around him, but we obviously saw regression where you don’t.

Thomas: Do you shy away from buying players who are likely to be traded in-season at an -only auction? I’ve noticed that GMs generally back off, at least buy a few bucks, on guys they fear could be traded away from our league. Is that a buying opportunity for me, or should I be showing the same amount of caution? Free agent dollars have become of greater value in recent years, so worst case scenario I’d be getting a boost on that front mid-season.

Paul Sporer: I think we’re really bad at predicting that stuff, so no, I don’t. I think it can be a buying opportunity.

Paul Sporer: Just a few more. Gotta cap it at an hour and a half today, y’all!

big papi: 14 teamer, H2h 5×5 – need 4 keepers…trout, Bergman, freeman, dan murphy, desmond, degrom? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Trout, Freef, Murph, and Desmond. Love Bregman as I mentioned earlier, but not over those 4

Sonny: In a 10 team dynasty having it’s 2nd draft (first one w keepers), 250 guys on rosters already. How much should I consider ADP vs just grabbing guys I like. Only have 5 picks in a 30 rd draft due to keepers

Paul Sporer: ADP seems entirely useless in this instance bc most will be drafting off of need

Batman: 11 team roto w/ OBP, who would you rather take at 10? Harper. Donaldson … then for round 2, Trea Turner or Votto? Thank you!

Paul Sporer: Harper and Votto, though Votto should go in mid-1st rd of OBP, tbh

Ron Burgundy: Paul I know you love Ottavino as do I what do you think of his chances of getting the closers role? I know he will keep it if he gets the shot!

Paul Sporer: He’s got the gig to start

Slamboni: Lucroy’s projections don’t exactly blow me away, but in an AL Only there aren’t too many other options. I have Zunino, should I pay up for Lucroy or just snag Carlos Ruiz and devote resources elsewhere?

Paul Sporer: Keep in mind you have to compare Lucroy to the rest of Cs. He gets more PT than most with a markedly better AVG and that advantage doesn’t show as clearly as a counting category one

Greg: Dynasty keep forever. Move Arreita for Nola and Alex Reyes

Paul Sporer: Hmm, not awful. Would try for more.

Daniel W: On the Depth Charts page, Willson Contreras is projected for a -0.8 Fld. On his player page, his Depth Charts projection is 6.6 Def. What’s the difference in calculation?

Paul Sporer: Truthfully, I don’t know. I don’t have a hand in that stuff.

Maxamuz: Duuuuude! You’re getting a Dell!

Svolch: What are your current thoughts on plain time for Ryon healy? It’s been said he’s going to play 1b. Is he relevant in a ten team mixer as you CI?

Paul Sporer: Ya he could be a CI in that format, I’m a big fan. He’s more fringe in 10 team for sure, but worth drafting

Jon: H2H Keeper: Am I crazy to not trade Moncada for McCutch or Cespedes? Dee Gordon is 2B and Justin Turner is at 3rd.

Paul Sporer: if you’re competing this year, I totally get it. You may regret it next year and beyond, but take your shot

Dk22: 2nd round pick: Votto, Turner, or Miggy in 11 team roto w/ OBP

Paul Sporer: Miggy or Votto

Joe: Matt Harvey starts on Sunday. At what velo (sitting) would you say (a) oh jeez, he’s in trouble; (b) okay, a solid start; or (c) hot damn, let me get some shares!

Paul Sporer: 90, 92-94, 95+

Ed in Tampa : Need to decide between Shelby Miller, Ivan Nova or McHugh or

Paul Sporer: Miller or Nova – flip a coin between upside and floor

Joe: Late speed target: Jankowski, Dyson or Rajai? Or someone else?

Paul Sporer: Rajai

Chad: Is Andrew Miller worth keeping in an 18 person points league where holds are counted for $11?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’d say so

Bruce Bocce: I know Eno has been down on ERod following knee injury, but he pitched fine yesterday. Where do you stand on the kid?

Paul Sporer: 2 spring innings don’t remove the risk. I love the talent, but worry about the health

Dan: When will the 2017 player profiles appear on players’ fangraphs pages?

Paul Sporer: Verrrryyy soon. That’s part of why it’s a shorter chat today

Larry David: Price doesn’t need TJS. THAT is surprising.

Paul Sporer: HOT!!

Paul Sporer: He’s our ace – http://rtsports.com/labr-mixed-draft

Horn Please Thank You: Pederson > Dahl in a keeper crazy? I’m a little shocked to see where the latter is getting drafted after 250 BABIP inflated, ugly swinging str %, plate appearances

Paul Sporer: No, not crazy, espec. w/Dahl health concerns that surfaced today

Nick: Hosmer, Gallo and Ottavino for Gary Sanchez… giving up too much or just right?

Paul Sporer: Not sure league type, but that’s fair

Brett : 2 years of Villar or 2 years of Darvish? 5 x 5 Roto

Paul Sporer: Villar

Zach: Keeper points league, who’s a better stash? Matt Strahm or Frankie Montas?

Paul Sporer: Strahm

Ian: How many quality innings does Salazar likely throw this year? How has his velocity been in spring training? Can’t find a report on it.

Paul Sporer: Haven’t seen any reports, either. I’m thinking around 160

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, sorry I couldn’t get to everything today. Planning for the rest of the March ones to be marathon sessions and might even throw in an extra one or two. You can hit me up on Twitter @sporer and I stream on Twitch at Twitch.TV/psporer24 where you can definitely ask these types of questions, too.

Paul Sporer: Take care!