Paul Sporer Baseball Chat - March 31st, 2017 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

2:01	Paul Sporer: Ladies and gentlmen, we are 2 days away from regular season games!!!! Let’s go!

2:01	Larry: better JD Martinez replacement: Mitch Haniger or Josh Bell?

2:01	Paul Sporer: Haniger

2:01	cheeto sandwich: am I delicious?

2:01	Paul Sporer: obv

2:01	Captgus: Hey Paul, are you not doing the weekly pitcher rankings at Rotowire this year?

2:01	Paul Sporer: I am not

2:01	Captgus: ack!

2:02	Paul Sporer: Might have something similar here, but I will have to talk to Rotowire first. I’m not just going to outright copy what I did over there. Those are my friends so it’ll be above board.

2:02	Darius Rucker: Statistically speaking, which advanced metric is most intoxicating to the opposite sex?

2:02	Paul Sporer: SIERA

2:02	Captgus: love Zola but your weekly rankings were golden.

2:02	Paul Sporer: Thank you! Todd rules. I’ve been planning on doing something similar over here, but just wanna get on the same page with Jeff so it’s not outright thievery

2:03	Jared: Need a SP to fill out my roster… Lynn, Ryu, T. Anderson, or Shelby?

2:03	Paul Sporer: Digging Lynn for this year

2:03

Danimal: Hey Paul, Something I recently noticed, as someone (me) who doesn’t understand innings limits outside of “young pitcher didn’t throw a lot of innings last year therefore innings limit” should I/we be worried at all about an innings limit with mccullers? He threw 85 last year and 150 the year before with 125 of those 150 being in the majors

2:04	Paul Sporer: It’s something to be aware of, but teams aren’t always militant about those when the pitcher is dominating and they’re contending. See also: Sanchez, Aaron

2:04	Ottoneu first timer: Is Trout, Betts, Bryant plus Archer/Estrada/Cotton/Skaggs/Stroman and a bunch of relief aces enough to win my first go around?

2:04	Paul Sporer: I’m an Ottnewb myself, so I’m not entirely sure

2:04	MIKE: If Beltre goes to DL – Panda or Reyes?

2:05	Paul Sporer: If you need speed, go Reyes; otherwise Panda

2:05	Captgus: What do you see from Eickhoff this year?

2:05	Paul Sporer: Solid mid-3.00s arm with some K upside

2:05

jpg: Is Rizzo overrated? The last three years he’s been a .285-ish, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 94 R guy. That’s certainly good but I don’t see how he’s a top 10 bat. How is he 25 picks better than Cruz or 40+ picks better than Cespedes? I would take any of the next 10 guys after Rizzo according NFBC without a second thought. Am I crazy?

2:05	Paul Sporer: Been on this all year. Not sure how he’s a slam dunk over Votto, EE, and Freeman for so many

2:05	Hobbs: 10tm H2H with 15 keepers a year forever and 6×6 w/ OBP, SLG and K/9, K/BB, QS. Would you trade Kluber and Bogaerts for Correa and Archer?

2:06	Paul Sporer: I would, yes

2:06	hopeful hank: updating pitcher rankings before tomorrow?

2:06	Paul Sporer: Hmm, that’s actually a good idea

2:06	Paul Sporer: I gotta get my bold predictions done, too

2:06	Paul Sporer: So we’ll probably be closer to 1.5-2 hours on the chat today

2:06	Dan: How good could Charlie Morton be this year if he is throwing 95mph with his secondary stuff?

2:06	Paul Sporer: Talent has been there for a minute, but health has eluded him like Barry Sanders did linebackers

2:07	bl27: with 3 closers (Dyson, Treinen and Bedrosian) on my roster (league with SV and HOLD), do you like a move as Bedrosian and a round 11 for Kelley and a round 8 ?

2:07	Paul Sporer: that’s fine. not a Kelley fan, but the round upgrade isn’t bad

2:07	Paul: Seth Lugo hold in fantasy relevance this year?

2:07	Paul Sporer: Depends on league size

2:07	Jason: Dynasty points league: Kepler or McCullers?

2:07	Paul Sporer: McCullers

2:07	Steve: Is Manuel Margot locked into the Opening Day lineup for the Padres? What do you expect from him?

2:08	Paul Sporer: If he’s healthy. .270 AVG, tons of SBs

2:08	cheeto sandwich: looking for cheap steals, which of Revere, Melvin Jr., or Saladino would you want?

2:09	Paul Sporer: Revere

2:09	kdallas: final pitcher slot in 12 team roto: hold hellickson and ride on the fury road with his CIN / WASH 2-start week, or try and replace with any of Ryu, Miller, Karns on the wire?

2:10	Paul Sporer: Never been much of a Hellickson fan, but if you want the 2-start, that’s fine. Then replace afterwards. Think I’d take a shot on a healthy (for now) Ryu

2:10	Guest: I traded $8 Devon Travis and $7 Kennedy for $10 Jose Ramirez in AL Only. Couldn’t keep both of the other guys. Whaddya think, good/bad/indifferent?

2:10	Paul Sporer: I’m chill with it. Basically Travis for Ramirez since you can’t keep Kennedy

2:10	Paul Sporer: Ramirez is basically Lindor if you look at their lines. Lindor has more pedigree, but the two were equals last year and I don’t think it’ll change THAT much

2:13	Houzer : Paul! Why is Dan Murphy ranking so much higher than Matt Carpenter at 2B? They seem really dang close to me

2:13	Paul Sporer: The batting avg advantage is huge

2:13	jpg: Is a $12 Darvish or a $13 deGrom enough of a bargain to pick him over a more sturdy $34 Bumgarner in a standard 5×5 roto?

2:13	Paul Sporer: Definitely

2:13	OC: 20 team, deep league dynasty, no rising salary/round keeper value. Thoughts on my benitendi + a prospect for his scherzer. I’m probably a year off from really contending, but I’m afraid beni will be a better in real life than fantasy player.

2:13	Paul Sporer: if you’re not really contending until ’18, I don’t think I’d do it

2:14	Sonny: Had to make room in dynasty so I packaged 1y Duffy + 3y Eloy for 1y Archer. Would have preferred to keep Eloy but did I do ok considering circumstances?

2:14	Paul Sporer: Ya, I have Archer over Duffy.

2:15	Ryan: Corbin Karns Wacha Wood pick 2

2:15	Paul Sporer: Wacha is my favorite http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/march-rankings-update-starting-pitche…

2:15	Hobbs: 10tm H2H dynasty 5×5, been offered Posey, Brantley, Arenado for Rizzo, Dahl and Schwarber (C elig). I have a pretty solid team. Not sure the safety outweighs the upside. Your thoughts?

2:16	Paul Sporer: Arenado >> Rizzo, Posey > Schwarber, Brantley = Dahl

2:16	The Kyd: Who do you pick up in a shallow 10-team, 5×5 (QS instead of W) as a replacement pitcher for Matz: Davies, Kennedy, Wacha, Walker, or Nova? Or do I eschew starters and just FAAB bomb Treinen?

2:16	Paul Sporer: Walker for sure

2:17	Bubba: Any concern with how bad Arenado looked in the WBC? Worth the 5th pick over Kershaw?

2:17	Paul Sporer: Nope, we wouldn’t have noticed if it was in the Cactus League and I’m ok taking him ahead of Kersh

2:17	Moltar: Better season in the Tejas outfield, Gomez or Mazara?

2:18	Paul Sporer: Pretty hyped on Maz

2:18	Houzer : for a final round pick .. do you take the intrigue and tease of Heyward? Or the boring ok-ness of Solarte?

2:18	Paul Sporer: I like Solarte a good bit, but he or Solarte types will likely be on the wire. Take the shot on Heyward one last time

2:20	Paul Sporer: Smyly down 6-8 wks w/flexor strain; water also wet

2:20	EB: With the Rangers Outfield in flux, how do you think Gomez and DeShields do this season? Any worth a WW pick up? 10 team league. Thx.

2:20	Paul Sporer: Take the lottery ticket shot on DD

2:21	Brian : If you had to take a chance for a bench MI, go with Owings or R. Mondesi?

2:21	Paul Sporer: Owings

2:21	Moltar: When do you think Urias will be up for good?

2:21	Paul Sporer: 2018

2:21	Paul Sporer: Not saying he won’t come up this year, but he’ll be up n down

2:22	Hector: Any word on Bedrosian? Is it just a formality at this point him being named the closer?

2:22	Paul Sporer: Haven’t seen any updates, but ya he seems like the guy

2:22	Adam: 14 team std league snake. My keeps are kershaw kluber trout betts and bogie. How long should I wait on pitching? Which four should I target out of santana hosmer j-ram addy franco lamb herrera piscotty broxton contreras?

2:23	Paul Sporer: Addy, Lamb, Santana, and Piscotty… i like most of those guys, tbh

2:23	Sonny: I think I have an insane # of OF in a 10tm 35 roster dynasty, how long do I hold Ozuna if he’s my 5th or 6th OF?

2:24	Paul Sporer: A couple months? I love Ozuna

2:24	Moelicious: Who is the first closer to lose their job?

2:24	Paul Sporer: Kintzler

2:24	Aspergillus Fumigatus: I had an auction this week, and it essentially went according to my plan except for my outfield. I got Marte and Pollock at good values, but should I be worried by their risk? (I also have Herrera, Duvall, Piscotty, and Ozuna)

2:24	Paul Sporer: That’s a pretty nice stable of OF, I think you’ll be OK

2:24	Houzer : Chris Davis + Ramos should net me ____ at 1B?

2:25	Paul Sporer: Wilson Ramos? Not sure even if it’s AJ Ramos that you’ll be able to jump too much higher up the 1B rankings

2:25	jack : Adalberto Mejia, Jaime Garcia, Shelby Miller,Mike Montgomery, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Leake, or big fat Bartolo Colon- who would be the best hail marry option in a points league – please tell me its not Bartolo-

2:25	Paul Sporer: Miller

2:26	Hector: With Matz going on the DL I need a guy with good rations – Cotton, Joe Ross, Liriano now, Garrett Richards? Who do you like?

2:26	Paul Sporer: Those guys are all available? Nice. I’d go Richards probably, but maybe peep the schedules. If Cotton has a few home games early, go for him

2:27	pH: Final pitcher….Boyd, Severino, Miller?

2:27	Paul Sporer: Miller or Boyd http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/march-rankings-update-starting-pitche…

2:27	Paul Sporer: I do need to boost Boyd some in those rankings, tbh

2:27	Houzer : Matt Bush going to grab that closers job this year, and save 35 this year with 10k/9?

2:28	Paul Sporer: Maybe, but it’s not like Dyson is bad. If they value Bush as their best reliever, it’s probably smartest to leave him in the fireman role to come in when it’s tightest in the 7th or 8th

2:28	jpg: Where would you put Treinen now that he’s been officially named closer?

2:29	Paul Sporer: Dyson, Feliz area

2:30	Hannah Hochevar: Had a bunch of questions queued up for your yesterday–about Brantley, Boyd, Mondesi, etc–and then you answered all of them on the Pod! Now what do I do?

2:30	Paul Sporer: Just hang out and enjoy!

2:30	Phil the Thrill: Picked up Treinnan but don’t trust him. Still need a closer. Would you swap Aaron Sanchez for “Final Boss” straight up in a 14-teamer?

2:30	Paul Sporer: That’s a fair deal

2:30	big dummy: Lugo > Berrios?

2:30	Paul Sporer: Not in terms of talent, no. But maybe in short-term value

2:30	Drew: What is so special about Charlie Morton all of a sudden? Everyone keeps talking about him. Is he a legit sleeper for this year is healthy?

2:31	Paul Sporer: Added lots of velo and started missing bats. Just needs to stay healthy

2:31	Joliet Jake: Karns, Skaggs, D Norris, Lynn, Severino, Tyler Anderson & Fiers. Need to keep 3 for $1 – who gives you the most upside?

2:31	Paul Sporer: Lynn and Norris most upside

2:31	Hannah Hochevar: Curious if you have a take on the JD Martinez and Smyly injuries in terms of time missed and dollars I should dock in bidding…

2:32	Paul Sporer: I’d move JD down to around the Ozuna area and I just wouldn’t draft Smyly

2:32	Nasty Nate: 12 team h2h points, can keep 5. Definitely keeping Harper, Correa, Miggy, and DeGrom. Should I keep Quintana or Chapman, or should I only keep 4?

2:32	Paul Sporer: I’d keep Chap

2:33	moosh: Do you know of a site that shows the totals needed in each category to win in Yahoo! last year?

2:33	Paul Sporer: I think Razzball does. Try searching “category targets razzball”

2:33	Neel: What would you do with Kang in a 16 team dynasty league? hold or cut bait?

2:33	Paul Sporer: Just hold for now if you can

2:33	Guest: Buy low polanco or avoid?

2:33	Paul Sporer: I was sooo hyped on him and then the shoulder acted up. I’m staying the course and buying if the price drops

2:33	hopeful/grateful hank: what are your thoughts about Folty? Is he a late target of yours or am I too intrigued with his pitch arsenal?

2:34	Paul Sporer: I’m very intrigued. He’s coming along

2:34	Trey: Charlie Morton > Feliz Hernandez. Am I crazy?

2:34	Paul Sporer: That’s too aggressive

2:34	big dummy: Ditch Smyly with the injury news?

2:34	Paul Sporer: Was already out anyway, so super-out now

2:34	Son of Bort: Thanks for the chat, Paul…I’ve got a pitching question

2:34	Paul Sporer: No problem!

2:36	Pablo: Worth using my waiver spot (not made a claim in several years and up to #3 in the order) in the pick up Treinen and drop Montgomery in a deep dynasty? Waivers are rarely used in the league except for post auction right before opening day, i.e. now.

2:36	Paul Sporer: Ya that seems viable

2:36	JD15: If I have Kris Bryant (3B and 1B eligible) in a H2H league, who would your preferred pairing be: Arenado or Goldy? Is it close?

2:36	Paul Sporer: It’s v close. Maybe go Goldy for the speed, but there’s no WRONG pick

2:37	Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : In a shallow league, I got the pairing of Cueto and Quintana with Richards and Price. I feel like the more mundane inning eaters works well with the high upside, possibly low inning UCL boys. Am I crazy for having both?

2:37	Paul Sporer: Not crazy at all. I think building a rotation that goes together is underrated

2:37	Joliet Jake: Who is the next elite closer that’s not currently holding the role?

2:37	Paul Sporer: Nate Jones after Robertson is traded

2:38	Hakeem: What are your thoughts on Mets hitters Duda, Reyes, Conforto? Any shares?

2:38	Paul Sporer: Have a Conforto share, but also have a couple drafts this wknd

2:38

Maxamuz:

2:38

Maxamuz:

2:39	Dan: Hi! Who you got for best season in points with a K penalty? AGon, Kendrys, Melky? Thanks!

2:39	Paul Sporer: Morales

2:40

Son of Bort: Whoops, here’s my Q: I’m in a 10 tm h2h keeper league that uses k9. my pitchers are Scherzer, deGrom, Verlander, Carrasco, Paxton, and Taillon. I got Taillon for $4 in this season’s draft. I like the value, but I’m concerned about the lower K’s. My closers are currently Maurer and Treinen. I was thinking about trading Taillon for a higher k9 closer like Diaz, thoughts?

2:40	Paul Sporer: If you can get Diaz, that’d be great. But if not, you have enough Ks to cover Taillon

2:41	Nelson: Is it too risky to bank on a Cy Young perfomance from Yu, so soon after returned from surgery?

2:41	Paul Sporer: It’s not that soon

2:41	Paul Sporer: But you shouldn’t BANK on a Cy level performance from anyone that isn’t Kershaw, Bum, or Max, tbh

2:41	Willie: Which of these guys are most tempted to reach for in a draft – Drury, Haniger or Healy?

2:41	Paul Sporer: Loving Healy and Drury

2:42	thwerve: Need to be ready to drop one to possibly fill in for Rendon: Lance Lynn, Dylan Bundy, Ivan Nova

2:42	Paul Sporer: prob Lynn. Bundy for upside and then Nova for stability.

2:43	Dabo Dabo Sweeney: Paul – thanks for all the help leading up to drafts. Last one and biggest one tomorrow. I kept Giancarlo, Marte, Carp, Contreras and Murphy. Have 6th overall pick and looking at Miggy, Freeman, or MadBum/Scherzer. It’s an OBP league. Thoughts?

2:44	Paul Sporer: I’d go Miggy, SP, Freeman

2:44	Relsh: Any expectations for Raimel Tapia getting called up this season?

2:45	Paul Sporer: ya I expect him to log MLB time this year

2:45	Evil Goatee Paul: When is the last time you thought about Alex Ochoa?

2:45	Paul Sporer: Hahaha no idea prior to 1 second ago

2:45	Dabo Dabo Sweeney: J Upton or Cutch? Thanks!!!

2:45	Paul Sporer: J Up

2:45

jack : did you hear the Reds GM talk about blurring the lines on sp and rp where they would be going 3-4 ip at a time – would you give a bump to those rp ( reed stephenson rieisal or lorenzen) since they would be gaining a better chance at gaining a win and get better ratios in short bursts or do you think that is something a gm says when his starters terrible

2:46	Paul Sporer: Ya kinda reminds me of the Colorado thing a few years ago. It’s not a bad idea, but executing is tough.

2:46	Dabo Dabo Sweeney: Yo vs. Crush?

2:46	Paul Sporer: Coinflip, tbh. Both just power studs

2:46	Paul Sporer: Not just as a negative. Meant like both are out-and-out power monsters

2:46	The Real Darius Rucker: Ben Revere: late late late value stud no? what can I expect from he of the megawatt smile?

2:47	Paul Sporer: Ya I really like him to get back on track and steal a boatload

2:48	Dubbs: Are you worried about Aj pollock health? In deep league would you rather have pollock or mccutchen?

2:48	Paul Sporer: Ya, I am. I’ve got him and Cutch 18 and 20, respectively, though. V close.

2:48	moosh: How many HRs does Rajai get in OAK?

2:48	Paul Sporer: 8?

2:55	Bruce: Adam Frazier gonna win me my league this year or nah?

2:55	Paul Sporer: Hahaha, 14 tm NL only?

2:55	DB: NFBC 12 teamer rotation: Scherzer, Duffy, Gausman, Paxton, Richards, Happ…you think I need more or are we alright?

2:55	Paul Sporer: Strong, but any team/rotation will need in-season upkeep. Think you’re off to a good start, though

2:56	Rags: Deep NL only roto league with OBP instead of Avg. Any interest in Jarrett Parker, Adam Frazier or Jabari Blash as a 5th OF?

2:56	Paul Sporer: Go for the aforementioned Frazier

2:56	Dan: How many different league setups are you doing this year (5×5, points, OPS, etc.)?

2:56	Paul Sporer: 5×5, H2H, Ottoneu

2:56	Paul Sporer: I really cut back on leagues this year

2:56	Lars: DeShields or Conforto as my end-of-bench OF stash in 10-team redraft?

2:56	Paul Sporer: DD

2:56	Philip: What level of closer should I be able to get via trade for Aaron Sanchez in a 14 teamer?

2:56	Paul Sporer: A pretty good one, but it all depends on your market

2:56	Paul Sporer: aka the other teams in your lg

2:57	Jeremy: For an end-game flyer on an unheralded rookie SP: Mejia or Jordan Montgomery?

2:57	Paul Sporer: Mejia. We discussed both on the pod yesterday btw

2:57	Cookie: David Peralta someone to keep an eye on this season?

2:57	Paul Sporer: Absolutely. Helluva bat when healthy. Been getting shares of him

2:57	moosh: How do you see the OAK bullpen really playing out?

2:57	Paul Sporer: Think Doolittle emerges eventually

2:57	moosh: I just got a surprise check for $500 in the mail, what should I do with it?

2:57	Paul Sporer: Wow that’s awesome. Enjoy a nice meal and save the rest!

2:59	Paul Sporer: Or buy MLB The Show 17 if you have a PS4

2:59	Ryan: With Kelley losing the competition for closer in Washington, do you hold on to him for spec saves, or switch to Dayton/Glover/Rondon/Strickland as a better spec?

2:59	Paul Sporer: I’d spec on Rondon

2:59	Ombudsman: Better chance of putting together a stud season this year: David Dahl or David Peralta?

3:00	Paul Sporer: Hmmm, Dahl’s health makes things murky. Though Peralta’s health has been problematic, too. Gimme Dahl still bc he runs, but I do like both

3:00	Dan: You a fan of Jose Quintana?

3:00	Paul Sporer: Yeah, solid arm

3:00	Rudy L: Straily gets no love despite strong 2nd half stats last year. Better park this year. Please rank with Ryu, Lynn, Musgrove, Graveman.

3:03	Paul Sporer: 2nd half was kinda fraudulent though with a 1.8 HR/9. I think the move to Miami could yield similar numbers but he actually earns them. In other words, he’ll have a high 3s with a FIP that more closely aligns with his ERA

3:03	Kerry: Drafted Sanchez at #77 and couldn’t pass up Lucroy when he fell to me at #117 in a 10-team 1 Catcher league. How desperate should I be to move one of them to one of the teams with a shitty catcher?

3:03	Paul Sporer: Very. Can’t start 2 Cs in a 1 C league so it’s a wasted resource rn

3:03	Evil Goatee Paul: @Aspergillus Fumigatus: Let’s exchange e-mail addresses so we can cry together when Pollock and Marte both go down at the same time.

3:03	Paul Sporer: LOL

3:03	Seth Lugo: Do I really have a “dead arm” or is it a convenient excuse for Wheeler being in rotation?

3:04	Paul Sporer: Could have dead arm from going all out in WBC

3:04	Don Winkle: Hey Paul, do you know where I could find Spring Training batted ball data?

3:04	Paul Sporer: Not sure, tbh. Hit up @darenw on twitter and see if he has any for you

3:05	Hannah Hochevar: Re: Kintzler. You and Eno were talking about how sinkerballers, even with low K numbers, might actually be people who stick as closers. Could that mean Kintzler holds it down longer than expected?

3:05	Paul Sporer: Sure, sure, plus nobody really challenging, so that’s totally fair. I’m just so meh on him

3:09	Eric: Have you listened to More Life? I’ve been trying but can’t seem to get into it. I absolutely LOVED Take Care, it’s one of my favorite hip-hop albums, but I just can’t really get into his post-Nothing was the Same stuff. Is something wrong with me?

3:10	Paul Sporer: Nothing wrong with you. I’m liking a handful of the songs, but it’s a bit more Viewsy that I would’ve liked

3:10	Guest: Thoughts on Abreu this year?

3:10	Paul Sporer: He’ll be solid

3:10	Micah: Addison Reed worth holding onto in 10-team with Familia only getting 15?

3:10	Paul Sporer: Ehhh, I mean you can for a couple saves and then just cut him, but there’s probably something better in 10 teamers

3:10	Eric: Need to add some more pitching depth in my 12-team league. Who do you like best? Finnegan, E. Santana, or Chen?

3:10	Paul Sporer: Erv

3:10	Lars: DeShields worth all the buzz he’s getting?

3:10	Paul Sporer: Doesn’t cost much so worth a shot

3:10	Rags: NL-only league and I kept deGrom, Arrieta, J. Ross, T. Anderson, and L. Lynn for 5 of my 6 SP spots. Is there too much boom/bust there or should I be feeling ok?

3:11	Paul Sporer: I’m not huge on Arrieta, but at least he’s not your ace. Solid NL rotation

3:11	Estuary: Who do you like more this year Treinen or Bedrosian?

3:11	Paul Sporer: Treinen

3:11	Ian: In H2H Pts, would you deal Gsellman for Tommy Joseph if you need a 1B pretty desperately?

3:11	Paul Sporer: Yes

3:11	Dave Kingman: Would you rather have L. Martin or D. Desheilds in a 5×5 Roto League with OBP instead of AVG?

3:11	Paul Sporer: DD

3:11	Davis: gotta a toughy…didn’t really pay attention in draft and now I need to drop a pitcher and pick up a SS. Please help me with who I should drop. Thanks Rotation: Taillon/G.Richards/Valesques/Cotton/S. Dyson/T. Watson (along with Sale/Arrieta/Chapman/Giles)

3:12	Paul Sporer: Gotta drop Cotton, I guess

3:12	JB: You ever done the punt saves thing in 5×5 H2H cats? Wondering if I can get enough value out of Miller, killer setup men and SP-eligible RPs to make it work (daily moves)

3:12	Paul Sporer: It’s definitely viable in H2H

3:13	Lars: Adrian Gonzales gonna turn it back around this season?

3:14	Paul Sporer: Just an early power outage last year, otherwise he was himself

3:14	Philip: All things being equal, do you think it is easiest to acquire pitching or hitting via trade in-season?

3:14	Paul Sporer: Pitching

3:14	Moltar: Do you Snell what the Blake is cooking? Or will he never be able to get Duane “The Walks” Johnson under control?

3:14	Paul Sporer: I like him long term for sure, but the walks will be an issue this year for sure

3:14	mario mendoza: AL OF is so weak… thinking of trading Chris Davis (I have Abreu) for Benintendi… Is Beni’s projected .780 OPS “bankable” enough to do that?

3:15	Paul Sporer: I don’t think any rookie is bankable, but that seems like a fair deal given your situation

3:15	Rudy L: Will Cris Carter get enough ABs to have value? I have to cut him or Duda.

3:15	Paul Sporer: Ehh, depends on league type

3:15	Michael: Happ obviously will regress a bit from last year, what do you think his floor is?

3:15	Paul Sporer: Think he’s at least 4.20 for 180 on the low end

3:15	The Real Darius Rucker: Love your podcast man! Gets me through the daily commute!

3:15	Paul Sporer: Thanks!!

3:15	Evil Goatee Paul: Darvish and Degrom, followed by Hill, Manaea, Odorizzi, Velasquez, and Robbie Raygun the K-gun. Too much risk without enough stability?

3:16	Paul Sporer: It’s pretty upside-y, but it seems like a 10 or 12 team mixer so I’m OK with that

3:16	El Chubbito: Thoughts on Conforto this season? And please don’t give us a stock “if playing time works out” answer. We already know that part!

3:16	Paul Sporer: But that’s the answer. His talent isn’t really in question

3:16	Paul Sporer: but sitting on the bench does us no good

3:16	Hit Boi: 12 team mixed 5×5, last 3 starters are Lynn, Folty, and Bundy. Who should I cut first if a SP pops up early in the season?

3:17	Paul Sporer: Prob one of Folty or Bundy

3:17	mario mendoza: Are you buying Puig this year (assuming he isn’t free)

3:17	Paul Sporer: Ya his price is v cheap now.

3:17	Terry’s Sarape: Is there anyone you have drafted many years in a row?

3:17	Paul Sporer: Puig

3:17	cheeto sandwich: Thank you, and Eno, and Jason. you guys do good work over there with the podcast.

3:17	Paul Sporer: Thanks!

3:17	Paul: Grichuck any upside or is he a JAG

3:17	Paul Sporer: He has insane power, so ya there’s upside

3:18	Rudy L: Is Rivero a likely closer? Or would Nicasio or Hudson get first shot if Watson loses the job?

3:18	Paul Sporer: I think he’s deep on the list there in PIT

3:18	Jafo: What is up with Jon Grays home / road splits? He has a 5 k/b at home but 2.22 on the road? Walk rate more than doubles on the road? Is there hidden upside there? Thoughts?

3:18	Paul Sporer: Ya I love Gray. He got trounced a few times on the road which can’t really happen bc of the volatility of Coors. but he has the stuff to succeed in Coors so if he’s great on the road, he’ll be a beast

3:18	matt: Best option for SBs: margot, jankowski or inciarte?

3:18	Paul Sporer: I like Inciarte

3:19	Goldnen: 8.5 K/9 seems reasonable from Fulmer with a mid 3s ERA (3.50). BABIP increase offset by higher strikeouts due to change?

3:19	Paul Sporer: Ya that’s pretty much been my outlook. Added IP and Ks cancels out ERA loss

3:19	J: E. Santana a reasonable SP6 in 12 team head to head, or should I try to move a closer (Kimbrel?) for a higher tier SP. I have 3 other closers.

3:19	Paul Sporer: I like Erv late

3:19	Sonny: what changes in Joc’s line to push him a tier or two up the OF rankings?

3:20	Paul Sporer: speed. he stole 30 per 600 PA as a minor league. If he can recapture that, he’s a monster

3:20	Terry’s Sarape: How does this happen? My keeps are kershaw kluber trout betts and bogie……………………… trades?

3:20	Paul Sporer: Surely you would know how it happened more than I would, right? lol

3:21	Handsome Pomeranian: Is Charlotte available for a date with a gentlemanly canine this evening? She’ll be home by 11 p.m.

3:21	Paul Sporer: She has a boyfriend lol

3:21	Houzer : Carter Capps hitting 95 now. Does he take over as closer in SD, and rank in the Robertson/Colome class?

3:21	Paul Sporer: He could, but starting on DL and still coming off TJ. Great stuff when healthy

3:21	Paul Sporer: Don’t sleep on Maurer, though. Also sits 95

3:22	ChicagoCardinal: You and Eno mentioned 20% for Treinen. I’m strong on closers but should I put in a lowball bid just to keep my leaguemates honest?

3:22	Paul Sporer: Definitely

3:22	Paul Sporer: Saves are easy to trade

3:22	Brian: Dyson or Watson – been offered the same trade – with the only difference is dyson/watson. who is safer?

3:22	Paul Sporer: Prefer to keep Dyson

3:22	Bruce: Charlie Morton was never more than servicable at best. Now he back! to being maybe serviceable. Why is everyone going bananas

3:22	Paul Sporer: Scroll up.

3:22	Paul Sporer: Added velo, started missing bats. If those changes are legit, there’s big upside

3:23	Guest: What are your thoughts on a rotation of Cueto/CMart/ Salazar / Fulmer / Gausman / Samardzjia?

3:23	Paul Sporer: I like it quite a bit

3:23	Linus: DeShields or David Peralta for my final 10-team OF slot?

3:23	Paul Sporer: DeShields’ speed potential makes him a better gamble, IMO.

3:23	Ninja Blacksox: 12 team mixer. Vince Velazquez was just dropped (don’t ask me why). How much FAAB is he worth pre-season?

3:25	Paul Sporer: 25%? I’m a fan for sure, but in a 12-team, he’s not that nuts of a pickup

3:26	Bored: Would you rather have Wheeler, Ryu, Liriano, or E. Santana as a pick up for the next couple weeks?

3:26	Paul Sporer: Liriano

3:27	mario mendoza: NL wOBA, dealt $10 Pollock and $2 Piscotty for $30 Stanton, giving me an OF of Stanton, $20 Polanco, $15 Puig. Too expensive & risky?

3:27	Paul Sporer: That’s not a bad deal. Pollock has his own risk, too.

3:27	TJ: How optimistic (if at all) are you about Buxton this year after his September performance?

3:27	Paul Sporer: Still think he has insane upside

3:27	Astro: Who gets the lion’s share of catching for the Astros, Gattis or McCann? Will they rest Beltran often to get Gattis in the lineup more? PA for Gattis?

3:27	Paul Sporer: McCann, but Gattis will get his time

3:27	Big Tuna: If you come out of a draft thinking you’re a little short in one category, do you immediately try to trade or wait it out?

3:27	Paul Sporer: Wait it out

3:28	Paul Sporer: See if the wire offers something or maybe your guys out perform. I don’t trade until mid-May at earliest in most cases

3:28	Big Tuna: Is it stupid to carry 4 pitchers on the bench with only 6 spots? Should I be taking shots on upside bats?

3:28	Paul Sporer: No, pitchers more likely to pop so might as well get some lottery tickets

3:28	Bruce: Do any reverse leagues out there, like the old BP Hacking Mass?

3:28	Paul Sporer: I don’t know of any, but Hacking Mass was fun

3:28	Chance: His Goldy, Correa, and Osuna for my Bryant, Strasburg, Addy Russell. 10-team redraft. Take it or leave it?

3:29	Paul Sporer: I’d take it

3:29	Big Tuna: I got mocked for taking Duda/Moss in the 21st and 22nd rounds of a 12 team OPS, but I assumed one might pop. Did I screw up?

3:29	Paul Sporer: No, not a screw up

3:29	Adam: 9 tm NL-Only roto – my bullpen is Kenley, Addison Reed, Capps, Hector Rondon and Alex Wood (drafted as a SP, then news came down he’d be in pen). Drop Wood to add Sergio Romo as Kenley insurance, or is Romo likely to stay in 8th if KJ gets hurt?

3:30	Paul Sporer: I’m OK getting Romo

3:31	Big Tuna: I got cute in my draft and missed my crush player (Cotton). Do I try and trade for him or just admit defeat?

3:32	Paul Sporer: aw that’s always tough. you can put a feeler, but don’t overpay or get crazy

3:32	kdallas: favorite soon-to-be closer stash: Neris, Bush, or (wildcard)?

3:32	Paul Sporer: Neris

3:32	Rick: MLB @MLB #ThisSeason on Baseball: The #Bryzzo Souvenir Company is getting bigger and better. 31 Mar 2017

3:34

moosh:

3:34	Gorky: Pujols is a boring old vet, but dude was still a top 100 player last year and is now post-surgery. Can he be even better?

3:34	Paul Sporer: better? prob not, but yes he’s underrated

3:34	Bruce: Nova or Ed. Rodriguez?

3:34	Moltar: Lamb or Sano?

3:34	Paul Sporer: Nova and Lamb

3:34	Michael: Are saves overrated in roto H2H?

3:34	Paul Sporer: Ya

3:34	B+ryan: Who has better 3 year window: Kepler or Ozuna?

3:34	Paul Sporer: Ozuna

3:35	MattyMo: What game are you watching Sunday? (assuming you can only pick 1)

3:35	Paul Sporer: the last one bc I’ll be in Houston doing an auction for the other 2

3:35	Mike: Why is the chat window so small? It would be awesome if you guys could use more of the screen.

3:35	Paul Sporer: Hmm, not sure

3:35	Terry’s Sarape: Have you ever made a fantasy trade on opening day? Who went for whom?

3:35	Paul Sporer: I haven’t

3:36	Ernesto: Greg Holland or Ryan Madson?

3:36	Paul Sporer: Holland

3:36	Sid: Who do you like more Gsellman or Ryu?

3:36	Paul Sporer: Gsellman

3:36	Gordon: Hedges, Rupp, Zunino or Wieters in an OBP league?

3:36	Paul Sporer: Wieters, but not a lot of difference in that group

3:37	MattyMo: huge fan of busty sleeper podcast: K/BB league, Paxton or Duffy?

3:37	Paul Sporer: Duffy, but those are two of my favorites this year

3:37	G Money: Brinson up by May 1 or June 1?

3:37	Paul Sporer: June 1

3:37	James: Saw you competed in the NFBC Main Event, is it really that much harder than a yahoo, espn league? Why?

3:37	Paul Sporer: Just a sharper group of players as a whole

3:38	Paul Sporer: Doesn’t mean there isn’t any dead money, but high stakes brings in a better group than run of the mill free Y! or ESPN

3:38	JVizzle: How much for McCullers in a 12 team mixer $260 budget (no inflation)?

3:40	Paul Sporer: low-teens? maybe mid-teens if you love him (as I do)

3:40	Digger: Rank them: Musgrove, Ryu, Wacha

3:40	Paul Sporer: Wacha then the other two are a coinflip

3:40	Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

3:40	JC at the Bat: In auction league, is it better to go for a MadBum @ $40, or get two $20 guys (Samadrijila/Carlos Martinez, for example)

3:41	Paul Sporer: I don’t think one is inherently better than the other. Depends the team you’re trying to put together. I’d personally go for the pair over Bum, but Bum is a stud

3:41	Roman: Draft tomorrow, I’m going with my tried and true method of “panic and chase”. Any tips?

3:41	Paul Sporer: LOOOOL

3:42	Paul Sporer: Just make a detailed list with contigencies

3:42	Paul Sporer: instead of positions, maybe do player types. Late Power: Grichuk, Peralta, etc… Innings Eaters: Santana, Lynn, etc…

3:43	Bart: Was offered Eaton for JD Mart in a std 5×5 league. Should I ask for more?

3:43	Paul Sporer: That’s a fair offer tbh

3:43	Zain: What round do you take a chance on Puig in standard 12 team roto?

3:44	Paul Sporer: Any time after 15th

3:44	JAL: How many games does Ottavino save?

3:44	Paul Sporer: 11

3:44	Rudy L: Will Herrmann play enough at 1B to be a worthwhile second catcher?

3:44	Paul Sporer: Not unless something happens to Goldy

3:45	Paul Sporer: Herrmann’s still in AZ, right?

3:45	Chip Hilton: Are you as down on Junior Guerra as others seem to be?

3:45	Paul Sporer: No, I think he’s pretty good actually. Solid velo, killer splitty.

3:46	JD15: Is Glasnow in the Pitt rotation to start the year?

3:47	Paul Sporer: Not yet

3:48

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. I really appreciate everyone coming out. Good luck in all your drafts this weekend! Hit me up on Twitter @sporer and Snapchat at psporer. I also stream video games on Twitch at twitch.tv/psporer24 and we always talk fantasy there so that’s another avenue to get your questions answered. Take care!

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 31st, 2017