Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 18th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all!! Thanks for coming out. Last big draft weekend coming up, I’ll have a sizable SP rankings update coming. Likely tomorrow, no later than Friday AM.

Bria: Do you have any long term health concerns about Crochet?

Paul Sporer: Not any more than every SP which is to say yes, I do, it’s just not actionable. Knowing that literally every pitcher can and at some point almost certainly WILL break leaves me focused way more on skills over health. Obviously, guys currently dealing with injuries, freshly back them, or with an extensive history of them carry extra risk, but there is no such thing as a safe pitcher, so gimme the best skills. (This doesn’t mean stacking Rodon, Snell, Cole on a team, but rather not eschewing a more talented but higher injury risk guy for a lesser talented guy and the myth of safety)

Matt: Joined a league with a FAB this year for the first time – I’m usually in Ottoneu/dynasty world. How do you recommend approaching FA? I’m usually VERY active on the wire, so will try as many $0 bids as possible, but how should I think about allocating my dollars? Is it mostly impact call-ups?

Paul Sporer: Yeah impact call-ups and injury replacements. Spamming the mid and lower tier bids is usually the better option v. the big budget players. Rarely do the triple-digits really deliver. Doesn’t mean you NEVER go for ’em, but be very smart about when to take that shot.

Chuck: How high would you go on Palencia in a 6×6 format with saves and holds separate cats?

Paul Sporer: What do the stud closers go for? I’d say 2/3rds of their pricing? I usually pay for SVs, but in SOLDs lgs, I don’t go as hard paying up and would rather run more toward the HD studs. That said, the WBC got me really amped for Palencia. I didn’t really see him much last yr and holy smokes, he’s electric.

E: Hey Paul,

Paul Sporer: Hi!

Sean miller: What’s getting in the way of drake Baldwin getting mvp votes this season?

Paul Sporer: Team success which anyone who has followed me for a long time knows I hate as a consideration for the MVP bc that makes an individual award into a team one, but if they go sub-.500 again, I’m not sure he’ll get any downballot love unless he just has a HUGE season (.290/30/100 type beat)

Greg: Hey Paul – I have to throw one of these back in a keep forever league. The round they can be kept forever is the number behind them. Who are you throwing back? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zach Neto (3), Kyle Tucker (5), Bobby Witt (8), Samuel Basallo (9), Chase Burns (11), Bryce Harper (15), George Kirby (15), Austin Riley (25), Yordan Alvarez (25), Fernando Tatis Jr. (25), Tarik Skubal (25), Logan Webb (25), Cole Ragans (25), Kevin McGonigle (25), Trey Yesavage (25).

Paul Sporer: I adore Yamamoto, but it’s gotta be him. You can afford a luxury item like that w/your amazing late keepers so you could keep him over Basallo but I think I’d just keep all but Yama and see what’s available in the 1st round

M: Need a Seiya replacement, roto.  considering Wallner, Canzone, J Lowe, and Benge. Who you taking?

Paul Sporer: Maaaannnn, Seiya sabotaged again! It feels like we keep coming up just shy of a full scale breakout. 32 HR/103 RBI was amazing last yr as he finally stayed healthy but then his AVG weirdly cratered to .245 (career .278 coming into ’25). Injuries clipped him at the start of 2023 and then 2 wks into 2024 keeping those seasons under 140 gms apiece. I want to combine those 2023-24 skills w/2025’s power for 150! Anyway, this PCL strain is seen as relatively positive news since it could’ve been worse but it’s still a bummer. Anyway, I’d look toward Canzone/Wallner as replacements. They should fill in the power nicely. Benge is a high upside wildcard, but since you need this player to replace Seiya at the outset of the season, I’d lean toward the more experienced players, especially bc they can also be impact players themselves

Justin M.: Hi Paul – I’ve decided to draft hitters by Z-Contact % and pitchers by 2025 innings pitched. Any issues with this approach?

Paul Sporer: I love to give Justin hell at times for citing those a lot but those are great foundational principles! I stiiiillll have to give him a hard time, though

Larry: What kind of long term power projection do you view for Jackson Merrill? My league doesn’t care about steals at all and really values power, so I’m not sure how to view him.

Paul Sporer: There’s 30+ upside at fruition. We saw him pack a punch with 24 in his rookie season so I’m not suggesting that 30+ is some grand prediction, but I definitely think he can live in that range in his health seasons and if you’re living in a 23-27 range, then you’re a few friendly wind gusts and perfectly placed hits in the right park(s) from 32-33.

Jane: Hi Paul, In 14-team h2h 5×5, can you please choose two SPs, one RP for saves, and one infielder? Thank you!
Zebby, Weiss, May, Barco, Kay, Hancock Yates, O’Brien, Sewald Gorman, J. Ortiz, Cronenworth, Josh Jung

Paul Sporer: SP: Kay/Weiss (I like both guys coming back from KBO – I lean Kay unless you’re worried about Ws), Hancock (vying for 5th w/elite Spring [36% K-BB in 11 IP], but opens w/NYY), May (has a role and will have bouts of success but still not seeing enough swing & miss to be impact), Zebby/Barco (interesting 6s but not breaking camp)

RP: Yates, Sewald, *gap* O’Brien

INF: Gorman, J. Ortiz (he busted last yr, but I’m still a fan and like him as a reserve – Gorman just has more fantasy juice for H2H w/his HRs), Cronenworth, Josh Jung

Paul Sporer: I forgot it was 2 SP when I was writing that up, so gimme 1 of the KBOers and Hancock. I haven’t researched his Spring to see if there’s something driving the big numbers, but a 36% K-BB is awesome. And K-BB is one of the handful of ST stats that can have some juice

Tim: Not to spoil anything from your upcoming pieces, but where are you on Reid Detmers, especially in larger leagues (14+)?

Paul Sporer: Talent at the price (291 ADP in L9 Main Events) is still right for me.

Paul Sporer: By the way, I should also mention my excitement at Mike Maddux’s arrival as the pitching coach in LAA now.

Guest: Is Parker Messisk worth a stash( own him now) if he gets sent down? 12T mixed deep roto

Paul Sporer: Probably not. If you’ve got like 10+ reserves, I can see it, but otherwise go for someone in the bigs and keep tabs on Messick in preparation for his inevitable recall.

Baseball!: Cole Young!!!

Spring stats:  141 WRC+, 4HR, 3SB, 95EV (with a 114 max last year), 54% hard hit, 9.7% barrel, solid plate discipline

Last year ZIPS had him as #7 prospect — so this isn’t coming from nowhere.

Am I crazy for being super excited? Looks like all the pieces of a real breakout.

Paul Sporer: I’m a little surprised he hasn’t caught more hype as a late round pick. I know there were valid concerns of empty production based on his MiLB record, but if we’re seeing a power breakthrough, all of sudden there’s something here because the playing time is in hand. SB attempts is another valid Spring indicator and so even just his 3 in 15 gms could be indicative that he can return to his 2023-24 levels of 20 SBs. Even if he were to catch on a late-draft season helium guy, I doubt he’d become cost-prohibitive. He’s only even gone in 4 of the L9 Main Events.

Ace: Too high if my expectation for Chase Burns is SP1?  How worried are you of mechanics being questioned?

Paul Sporer: For this year? Yes. For career, no, that’s on the table with that kind of arm talent. As to worry, I’d say extremely. Throwing both that hard and that violently making feel like a total “when” not “if” in terms of severe injury. The gift is the curse when it comes to the standout velos unfortunately.

Sahil: O/U 25 HR and 25 SB for Wyatt Langford and Jackson Chourio this season?

Paul Sporer: Not only is that firmly on the table for both, but I’d say it’s close to their projection meaning both could really go 30+ both ways. These are two of the most dynamic guys in the game and we definitely haven’t seen the best from either, IMO. Langford feels downright cheap at pick-44 is the Main Event. I’m surprised he’s not right there w/Chourio in the early-20s

Trio: I drafted Tyler O’Neill, Cags, & Caissie in a deep 12-team league.  Workable set of starting OF’s???

Paul Sporer: Triple Spiderman meme all pointing at each other. I don’t mind it as a starting trio but I doubt all three fully click. They are that same high upside power-focused profile with a lot of whiffs that bring the volatility. I think one of these will be a star for you and one will be a full-on bust. Identifying which though is very difficult. I’d rank ’em Cags-TON-Caissie

Ed: As always thanks for doing these Paul! What % probability do you give Mick Abel making the rotation out of camp? I believe he’s the one with options still and Zebby does not. Can you give us any glimpse into where you’ll have Abel in tomorrow’s rankings?

Paul Sporer: Abel is zipping up the board with a fresh write-up in the update. Both he and Lord Zebulon have 2 opties so thankfully he won’t get caught up in the numbers game. As such, I think he’s all but locked. Simeon Woods Richardson is out of options which likely locks him and pushes Zebby to AAA to start.

Opening Day: Any official word yet on McGonigle, and/or Marcelo Mayer making the opening day rosters?

Paul Sporer: Nothing yet, but I’m still drafting both at their prices as neither is terribly expensive. Mayer is nursing a knee but did play on the backfields a couple days ago. I’m just not sure how the Tigers could tell themselves McGonigle isn’t one of the best 26 on a team that’s now made the playoffs two yrs in a row and has their ace in his walk year. I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to suggest that it’s malpractice for the Tigers to not have McGonigle leading off in San Diego on Opening Day. He’s their first potential legit OBP asset in like a decade!

Coffee is for Closers: Thoughts on Uribe, and handcuffing W.Vest for my K.Jansen?  I feel Uribe could lead the Brewers in saves easy, and Vest is quality insurance of any Kenley hiccups.

Paul Sporer: This plan looks like you’re going for a more affordable approach to saves than the premium mega studs and this is a good setup if you’re taking that approach. I’m nervous about Megill’s health in addition to thinking Uribe can be a legit stud so I like him as the ace closer on a bargain bullpen and then Jansen as your SVs collector who might have shaky ratios.

I know his ratios were good last yr but he rode a tiny BABIP and we just can’t bank on that again. I wouldn’t love Vest on his own bc I think Jansen has a decent chance to hold all yr if he’s healthy, but since you have Jansen and you are speculating a bit on SVs overall with none of the top dogs, I like putting a nice Vest over Jansen to keep him warm!

Tim: Another SP question: how dos Christian Javier look as a deep league option?

Paul Sporer: I’m in. I’ve got him a couple spots. Let’s see what a fully healthy Javier can do now. Not committed to holding him all year with a post-300 pick, either

Dynamic Duo?: Logan Henderson along with Matthew Liberatore.  What say you?  I don’t think Logan has been given a full go as of yet??

Paul Sporer: I like Liberatore. Eager to see if his spring improvements are more than just some Spring Training run-hot. I’m always encouraged when a young arm puts up a full season of work, almost regardless of the results. It is a big deal to prove you can make it through the 6-month grind and Libby did that last year. Skills weren’t off the charts or anything, but he was competent and at a level where even a click or two of improvement is enough to make a tangible difference.

It’s 10 ST innings so obvious all the caveats are in play, but he was excellent w/a 33% K-BB as both sides were elite – 35% K, 2% BB. There isn’t the classic pitch mix or mechanical change to latch onto for the reason behind the results, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t viable. Let’s be clear that even fully believing in them only means that I would make an adjustment to his projection, not an overhaul. So I think he can be a sub-4.00 ERA, sub-1.25 WHIP guy against a projection set that averages to about 4.35/1.30

Paul Sporer: I’m off Logan Henderson w/the health. They have too many options to hold one open for him, too. He might throw this weekend, but I’ll revisit him in-season. I’ve turned my attention toward Sproat/Harrison (so bummed about my boy Priester going down w/injury)

King Buzzo: I went heavy on stars in my keeper league and will have to draft scrubs. Who are your favorite 2B/3B $1 lottery picks?

Paul Sporer: I need a league size & context to know who the $1 guys are!

Hooha: Does the Seiya injury open playing time for Matt Shaw?

Paul Sporer: Yes, if Seiya avoids the IL, I could see them mixing in off days for him and giving them to Shaw. Barring a major anywhere, Shaw will likely bounce around and give  guys breaks regularly.

A: To what extent do you believe the reports that Evan Carter is going to get a chance to face lefties this year?

Paul Sporer: They’re set up to not really do it with Cutch as a perfect platoon. They have Cutch/Duran to pair with Carter/Joc and that just lines up really well. I love Carter and I want to see him be an everyday guy, but we just rarely see guys get a chance to dig out of a hole like this and even acknowledging it’s only 68 PA across parts of 3 seasons, it’s a brutal .275 OPS vL (.128 BABIP is a bit unlucky, but 31% K is not). That’s OK, though, strong side platoon bats put up excellent fantasy seasons allll the time, especially in today’s game when so few guys play 162

PiratesLady > Me: 6×6 10-team league auction league.  Keep two of the following, all that the same cost ($7 of $303): Keashall, Bradish, Soderstrom, Baldwin, Goodman

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s a fun group. Gotta go for the premium upside in 10s, so I’ll go Bradish and your favorite of the Cs.

Moelicious: Adolis Garcia with only a 5% K% all spring. Are you buying (ADP 230)?

Paul Sporer: For the first year ever I’m in on him and I didn’t even know about that bonkers Spring! 16% BB, too. After the 2021 breakout, I was concerned his plate skills would tank him and I obv ate shit on that for two years with 2024-25 looking like the type of seasons I was worried about. But now the price has sunk low enough that even another 2024-25 season wouldn’t be the end of the world with the upside to return to previous heights, especially in light of the big plate skills improvement in ST, assuming any of it holds

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: I waited an extra 50 minutes for you!

Matt Damon: Sorry was late, cheers Paul!

Paul Sporer: LOL no problem

SAGNOF: Saves ain’t got no face, baby!

Paul Sporer: That’s right! Especially if you’re not running with the studs. I’ve been a pay-for-SVs guy and I still want to pay for them, but I might be looking a little deeper this weekend for the Main. During Draft Champions season when you can’t make waiver moves, I’m all for the Masons, Cades, Jhoans on the world. I don’t hate ’em for a waiver-based on competition as I really don’t like speculating for SVs on the wire, but I’m faaarrrr more open to playing the middle of that top 12-14 group as opposed to committing one of those first 3 rds which is where the elite are going

Brandon: Carroll or Tatis if the choice between the two comes up?

Paul Sporer: Carroll for me

Guest: is Shane McClanahan healthy. What are his projections?

Paul Sporer: Certainly looking so right now, especially after a gem on Sunday. I’m treating him as healthy and I don’t think the Rays are going to curb his innings too much. Feel like his previous career high of 166 from 2022 is a reasonable target this year

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. If you missed it earlier, big SP rankings update coming before the weekend! (No later than Friday AM)

Paul Sporer: Good luck this weekend!