Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 10th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Woo, it’s chat time!

mtsw: 11 players in to a new league ottoneu draft and I only have $60 left (draft currently paused). How screwed am I to have to essentially fill the rest of the roster with $1 guys?

Paul Sporer: It kinda depends how the rest of the crew looks. I’m an Otto newb so I’m just finishing up my first auction. I took on a team midseason a couple years back, but I’m learning as well

Dannyel Vogelencia: How good/bad of an idea is it to target Vogelbach and Valencia as a 1B duo at my upcoming $260 AL-only keeper league auction? I can probably get both for cheap, versus having to pay huge dollars for one of the top 3 options, or overpaying on guys I’m nervous about like Hosmer or Pujols.

Paul Sporer: I assume you can move them daily to account for matchups and when they’re in the lineups? That could be OK. 1B actually isn’t a terrible place to save money in AL bc it’s not deep

Troy: How much do I incorporate team defense when evaluating starting pitchers for fantasy purposes?

Paul Sporer: A bit, but be careful not to get too crazy with it bc it varies so much year to year.

Jib Jib: Hey Paul! Loved the SP article! In a 12t H2H dynasty, would you trade away Benintendi/L. Cain for JD. Martinez? Additional scoring cats are BB, K, OPS, TB.

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much. BTW that SP piece here for those who missed it: www.hardballtimes.com/fading-aces-why-the-non-kershaw-studs-arent-worth-it/ … as for your question, I could do that if I’m a major contender for ’17. JD should be a beast in that scoring system.

Jason: With recent research on closers and turnover is it foolish to keep non elite ones (even cheap ones) in dynasty leagues? Shouldn’t they be leveraged for a offensive player or SP?

Paul Sporer: Sure, I’m always looking to instability and few things are more unstable than middle-backend closers

Vandelay Industries: 11 team roto w/ (Avg & OBP), how good is my line-up? C:Grandal, 1b: Rizzo, 2b: Pedroia, 3b: K.Seager, SS: Story OF: Betts, CarGo, S.Marte, DH: A. Eaton ..

Paul Sporer: That looks like a solid lineup. Good mix of AVG and OBP

Tito Santana: I get to call the first player into my AL-only auction this season. I’m having a surprisingly hard time deciding which direction to go in. Faced with such a situation, do I call in a super high-priced player I don’t want in order to get money off the board, a lower end player I’m hoping to get on the cheap, etc.? How do you generally act in such a situation?

Paul Sporer: I never do the latter, doesn’t mean I’m right, but I never try to sneak a guy through. I feel more often he ends up going a buck or two more than he should unless it’s truly some $1 dreg, but then you’re rostering someone you don’t have to at the very beginning and cutting yourself off from other potentially better pieces. If you don’t want to call someone you like, call someone who will set a market.

BC: What is the max you would pay for kershaw and trout in a standard draft?

Paul Sporer: low-$40s for Kershaw, mid-to-upper $40s for Trout

Cronut Burger: Please rank: Saladino, J. Polanco, Alcides, Simmons. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Saladino, Alcides, Simmons, Polanco,

seth: Would you keep Bour at $12 with the possibility of no longer platooning? Domingo Santana @$13? 16 team 5×5 with $260 budget

Paul Sporer: Both are keepable, IMO, but I’d go Bour

John: You in on Eduardo Nunez this year as a cheap SS where eligeable? And how deep of a mixed league would you be willing to do that in?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure he goes 16/40 again, but I’d roster him in virtually any league. I prefer him as MI in 10 team, but he could be a starter in 12, 15 team or of course NL Only

Coop: Hey Paul. 12-team H2H roto. Keep Kelvin Herrera at $4 or Roberto Osuna at $3. Am I just nitpicking between the two and should go with simple math and save a buck?

Paul Sporer: They’re pretty close, but I love Herrera so I’d go with him personally

Larry Bernandez: Hi Paul! 10 team dynasty league with 40 man rosters, and if I’m competing for anything this year, it’s third. I’ve been offered my Bellinger, Hader, and a draft pick for deGrom. If I had a real shot at first I think I’d do it, but since I don’t, I’m leaning no. What do you think?

Paul Sporer: I think you’ve laid out your answer. Go ahead and pass.

rf_haymaker: 6×6 roto (standard 5 + OBP & Holds). My 5 keepers are Bryant, Rizzo, Turner, Story, & Darvish. Best available bat for my first pick could be Odor. Pass because of poor OBP combo of him and Story? Take a guy like Lucroy instead?

Paul Sporer: I’m just not huge on Odor so I’d lean toward Lucroy personally, but I don’t think you automatically have to because of the OBP. Bryant and Rizzo certainly cover some OBP flaws from other guys for you

Patrick: Who has you most excited so far this spring?

Paul Sporer: I don’t get too hung up on spring numbers either way, but seeing Archer and Liriano throw strikes and miss bats and Bird smash homers have stood out to me

Bad Predictions: In a 12-team mixed keeper league (6SP, 2RP, standard categories), Carlos Martinez / Aaron Sanchez / Julio Urias are a good: 2nd / 3rd / 4th starter? 3rd / 4th / 5th? 4th / 5th / 6th?

Paul Sporer: I’d prefer 2-3-5 for those three

Cath Carroll: Do you prefer Danny Duffy or Carlos Martinez? Rotisserie 6×6 (QS)

Paul Sporer: Duffy for me http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-starting-pitcher/

GianMarlo Stanfield: Draft strategy question. 10 Team (Shallow) Auction $260 cap Mixed – Max Keep 4. I’ve got Correa ($11), Daniel Murphy ($8), Story ($13), and Bregman ($6). About 50% of premier bats are available and 95% of pitchers. What sort of tactic would you go with? OK with Daniel Murphy being my 1B? Thanks Paul love the chat and trying to catch you on TWITCH!

Paul Sporer: Nice quartet there. I am OK with Murphy at 1B and I think you’ve built up enough savings to attack pitching and roster a couple aces. I’ll be on Twitch this weekend. I’ve been eye-deep in editing player caps to release on the profile pages for Monday so I haven’t even looked at the PS4 for a little while, let alone turn it on, but I’ll take a couple hour break Saturday or Sunday for sure.

Darth Vader: In a mock draft earlier today Bryant went to me at 8. Are those other people crazy?

Paul Sporer: Haha, no. I just think there are enough opinions on players in the first that someone like him can fall.

JR: Who would you take for your final two keepers in an NL-only 5×5: Velasquez $17, Eickhoff $11, Owings $6, Chen $6. Already keeping Blackmon $16, Bryant $13, Seager $7, Gsellman $6. Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Big VV fan, but not sure he’s $6 better then Eickhoff, so I’d go with Eick. And I’d probably go with Owings.

Too Cold: How do you generally allocate your bench spots in an -Only league? Let’s say you have four to work with, do you dedicate each spot to a specific position/area or just fill up your bench with the best available values?

Paul Sporer: It kind depends on my team and what spots I feel I need to back up. I do like to make sure I have hitting and pitching. I probably allocate at least one spot to a speculative bullpen arm

Buck Showalter: Is it possible we can call Chris Davis a sleeper going into this season? Any chance he still has one more monster year in him?

Paul Sporer: Meh. He’s still going top 80 or so. He’s a batting average liability. I like the power, but how is he really different than the better Davis… Khris, who is available 20 picks later?

John: In 12 team mixed OBP leagues how many .320 guys can you offset with good OBP guys and still be competitive in the category?

Paul Sporer: Depends how good your studs are, but I’m sure you can roster a few

Rilson Wamos: Thoughts on Wilson Ramos this year? Can I bank on him to be a solid fantasy producer in the second half of the season?

Paul Sporer: No, I wouldn’t bank on him for anything, tbh.

Jay: Happy Friday, Paul. Always look forward to Fridays a little more knowing it’s your chat day.

Paul Sporer: Thanks, Jay!

Benson DuBois: NL only 5×5 auction keeper league. I can keep two of $2 Strailey; $1 Eickhoff or $1 Neris. Who would you keep?

Paul Sporer: Eick and Neris

Ruff Ruff: What are the 90% and 50% projections for Jon Gray this season? THANKS!

Paul Sporer: 3.10/1.15; 4.40/1.40 — lots of Ks for both scenarios

michelob ultra: I have Trea Turner as a keeper, but my SS is filled, so I’m likely to use him at 2B or OF — which of those positions should I tentatively plan on using him at going into the draft in order to max his value?

Paul Sporer: Plan on OF, but you can adjust as the draft plays out if you need to.

Gest: I don’t pay much attention to closers, what is the deal with the Angels? Where does Bedrosian stand for you?

Paul Sporer: I’m probably just avoiding that shitshow altogether. Bedrosian is the mostly high-skilled asset in the pen, but he is also an injury concern.

mtsw: Is Sam Dyson still the closer at the trade deadline? I get the sense he’s on a very short leash.

Paul Sporer: yeah I get the same feeling for some reason so I’m speculating on Matt Bush in deeper leagues

Bill: Any late round catchers you particularly like?

Paul Sporer: Ehhhhh…. it’s so ugly. Tony Wolters. As much as I like Tom Murphy, he’s not guaranteed to be the guy.

Bill: Are you concerned about Dahl for this season?

Paul Sporer: Definitely. I like speculating on Parra.

Mike Milligan: Paul thanks for the chat 10 team points league: Scherzer and Beltre for Carlos Martinez and Arenado. Which do you prefer ?

Paul Sporer: CMart/Arenado

Chaco Chicken: Can Michael Wacha be an 8k/2.5BB/sub 1HR per 9 pitcher this season?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely, it’s all about health, not skill

Joe: How do you typically handle your favourite targets in an auction? Do you try to call them out or hope that they fall through the cracks as late as possible? Any strategy tips you can provide in this regard would be much appreciated!

Paul Sporer: It depends. I will call out the high end ones sometimes just to get the strategy in motion. Also be ready to pivot if your targets go for way too much.

Mateo: Hi Paul , please pick 2 out of 3 to keep – Carrasco in the 6th, Benintendi in the 10th, Nola in the 18th.

Paul Sporer: Carrasco and Benintendi

catchers are terrible this year: Outside of splashing for Posey in my 12-team mixed league, doesn’t it make sense to just take a flyer on a few guys like Murphy, Susac, etc. and see if one pans out in April?

Paul Sporer: Is it a one catcher league? I wouldn’t quite BOTTOM tier, but middle tier is fine (Vogt, for example) if you don’t want to splurge for Posey

Mitch Conners: Who would you rather have over the next three years…Mazara or Moncada?

Paul Sporer: I really like Mazara

Minty: Do you trust Nola’s or V’s health more?

Paul Sporer: Velasquez, but I’d invest in both

mtsw: Will we see Machado play a lot of SS this season, if just to screw JJ Hardy out of having his option vest (reportedly at 600 PA)?

Paul Sporer: No, if JJ’s healthy, I think he’ll play

Rotorola: AL only auction keeper. I really want Trout, but I’m not sure what to set my limit at. Is it unwise to pay $50-$55 on him?

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily, no. It’s a massive investment, but he’s the best.

Chris: Long term, OBP league. Would you rather have Reed or Vogelbach? I have a choice of one, and do not need the 1B bat this year.

Paul Sporer: I’d lean Reed, but I’m not that geeked on either tbh

Pizza Pie: You a fan of Greg Bird? What’s the most you could see from him this season in terms of HR/RBI/AVG?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I am. Love the power. Something like .265/24

i have clones: I kept both Charlie Blackmon and AJ Pollock — they’re similar players, but value is value. Which one would you suggest trying to move if they’re both healthy and playing well in April? Mixed keeper league.

Paul Sporer: Depends what the market will yield, but I’d imagine Blackmon would be more sought after

Maxamuz: What are your thoughts on G. Polanco this year?

Paul Sporer: Big fan, think we could see a major breakout. Could go 25/25 with a .275 AVG

Big Dave: Is Valbuena actually going to take AB’s from Cron?

Paul Sporer: It seems that way, which is… interesting

Z: I’m trying a hybrid of your and Eno’s pitching strategies and drafting 2 aces (non Kershaw, Scherzer, Bum) and 2 top 10 closers, and then going all $1-$3 pitchers for the rest (10tm standard auction), I assume I should be targeting “safe” aces because the rest of my pitchers will be risky, what 2 aces would you recommend?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, you kinda ruled out the truly safe ones, but I’d say Thor, Kluber, Sale, JV, & Cueto

Moltar: I’m usually a really active FAAB guy and I’ve noticed that OF always has the most options mid-season in terms of hitters. With that in mind, would it make sense for me to go after only cheap OFs in the auction and bank on my waiver wire prowess? My IF is stacked with keepers.

Paul Sporer: Not *only* cheap OF, but maybe 2-3 of your OFs are cheap gambles go for and then if they don’t pop, you hit the wire

Rich: In a 8 x 5 league (with 3 extra hitting categories), how much does that devalue Ps? What would your max bid for Kershaw be ($260 budget)?

Paul Sporer: That takes quite a chunk out of them. I’m probably only go about $35 at that point.

t-BONE: Should I be targeting auction dollars or in-season free agency dollars in offseason deals? What’s the general ratio you use in comparing them, eg. $__ FA worth $1 AUC. Hope that makes sense. Thanks.

Paul Sporer: The ratio really depends on your league, but I’d opt for FAAB dollars generally speaking

kdallas: EOD keeper deadline help! Who’s your final keeper, 12 team roto: $12 Hanley (would be UTL) or our hype machine $5 Keon Broxton? My other 6 keepers are Goldy ($15), Rizzo ($33), Story ($11), JD Martinez ($10), Darvish ($18), Hill ($5) . . . I personally love the idea of Keon more than Hanley, but I think even the hyped-up Keon doesn’t go for more than $8 at auction, right?

Paul Sporer: Go with your guy! I have no issues opting for Broxton in this scenario

JT: Do you think ML pitchers will be able to more effectively exploit Odor’s aggressiveness this year?

Paul Sporer: I am curious to see how the league adjusts. His power is undeniable, but he hasn’t been a sharp base-stealer and as you say, he’s quite aggressive. He could be an AVG liability for sure.

Clarkers: 11T NL only 5×5 – Glasnow at $10 vs Folty at $8 vs Nova @ $6

Paul Sporer: Nova, Folty, Glasnow in that order

Arizona Bound: Have you been to Arizona for Spring Training before? I’m heading out there next week and would love any tips you can provide!

Paul Sporer: I have and it was awesome. I don’t have any hard and fast recos, but just try to find the rosters with players you’re most interested in watching and have fun. In fact, you don’t even have to get too crazy about seeing specific guys, just enjoy the baseball and sun

Nick: Have second overall pick in keeper league draft with odd rules for keepers. OBP/SLG instead of Avg/HR. Best available are Kershaw, Miggy, Votto. How do you rank them?

Paul Sporer: Votto, Miggy, Kershaw

Charlie Blackmon: Charlie Blackmon is good this year?

Paul Sporer: Yes?

$11 of FAAB: Better strategy for throwing out first overall player at auction in long-term, very deep home league: (1) mid-tier guy I really want in hopes he goes right at expected value before the hyper-inflation kicks in, or (2) go Trout at $1 below my number for him in hopes the shock and awe prevents runaway bidding?

Paul Sporer: #2!

Rufus T. Firefly: If Benintendi ends up batting second does he become worth a reach in a 12 teamer– say the 10th round?

Paul Sporer: He’s already going around there, so I think a reach would have to be around the 8th round. I get the hype, but I’m not going that high

Flossy: Paulie, need keeper help. 12 tm h2h points. Last keeper Story or Marte? Almost all top SS being kept. Story yes?

Paul Sporer: Yes, Story!

mtsw: Given the injury concerns should Wade Davis owners handcuff him to Strop or Rondon (or both?)

Paul Sporer: I’d go Rondon between the two

MJ: In an AL only without strikeouts as a category, which arms would you be more likely to target?

Paul Sporer: It boosts guys like Tanaka, Sanchez, Porcello

Clarkers: Minor League Draft – Bellinger vs Meadows – this seems to be best on the board when I draft.

Paul Sporer: Bellinger for me, but I do really like Meadows, too

Al: How good is Cotton changeup?

Paul Sporer: Plus-plus

Tybiez: Paul you have the voice of an angel. dont think enough people tell you this

Paul Sporer: LOL

Dr. Spaceman: Wade Davis or Giles?

Paul Sporer: Giles

Michelle: Is there an article or an easy tutorial as to how to calculate inflation in keeper leagues?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/how-to-account-for-keeper-inflation-in-your-auction-draft/

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Has anyone figured out why Machado didn’t steal any bags last year?

Paul Sporer: No, not really. A lot of it is player choice, but also their team as a whole doesn’t run

Enlightening Round: What tier should I look at for a return on a $2 Schwarber in a floating cap pts. league with around a $330 budget?

Paul Sporer: You can shoot pretty high bc so many ppl value Schwarber

Virgin Islander: I feel like d’Arnaud is going to be good this year-everyone has written him off for health reasons… guy can still hit

Paul Sporer: He just can’t stay healthy

Pat: Which SP/RP types would you recommend besides Bundy and Duffy?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-relievers/

Paul Sporer: there’s a list in that link

Andrew: Crazy to pick up Heyward and Shelby Miller in the late rounds (potentially last two)? Seems like they both have a ton of pedigree, have a good look at PT, and are still pretty young. Could people be under appreciating their actual value becasue they are thrown into a pile of “busts” and be underdrafted b/c of it? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: No it’s not crazy. I’m still on Miller for sure and Heyward’s price is so cheap that it’s easy to take a shot now

Zach: I just wanted to thank you for showing me Jump by Lupe. So so good

Paul Sporer: Straight fire

JD15: In auctions, do you prefer to be active early and risk having little $ toward the end of a draft or wait a little to ensure $ toward the end

Paul Sporer: I know I say it depends, but it DEFINITELY does here. Depends on my gameplan, my opponents, and how the early prices look. Auctions are very tough to have set rules for because everyone is a little snowflake!

Mike : Was offered Bregman CMart and Myers for Yelich and Scherzer. In a 12 Keeper keep forever league. Do you do this?

Paul Sporer: That’s a pretty fair deal. If you’re worried about Scherzer, do it. If you’re not, I’d probably sit tight.

Yumatic: Last keeper in 12 team mixed w OPS & K/9. 7th round Darvish or 13th round G Sanchez?

Paul Sporer: Damn that’s tough, but with K9, I think I’m going Darvish

lance mannion: Tried going with 1 stud (Kluber) and several mid tiers pitchers last year and got burned by the likes of Wainright,G Richard and Wacha. Youe suggestion for mid tier pitchers for this year Thanks

Paul Sporer: Yeah I was in on all three of those last year, too. Pitching is always risky, but I still plan on executing that strategy with some regularity

DW: Ceiling on Joc’s SB’s.

Paul Sporer: Ceiling is 30 if he wants and gets the green light, but realistically, I’m hoping for a incremental, but substantial jump into the low-teens.

Nervous: AL only Keeper league $260 12 team deal. Nervous about steals. Pick one: Dyson $15 and Judge $8 or Trumbo $18 and spend the $8 in the draft?

Paul Sporer: Nervous about Dyson being exposed and I don’t like Judge, so I’d go Trumbo and the $8

Kevin J. Enright: Paul, love the content! Should I be worried about keeping Osuna $1 in a 12-Team H2H 6-player keeper league? Seeing some ominous projections for his home run totals…

Paul Sporer: No, because at $1, he can’t really hurt you. I like some of the guys going below Osuna better than him in a straight draft situation, but at $1, he’s Gucci

Bill: Taillon or Paxton?

Paul Sporer: Paxton, but Taillon is getting a major jump in my updated rankings that will come out next week

Eric: Apparently Springer is working with the Astros coaches on his base stealing, and he was a very good base stealer in the minors. Can he go 30/20 this year? 30/30?

Paul Sporer: He could, but I also heard something that had ppl worried bc he was saying he’d only go in certain situations and it sounded like SBs wouldn’t be a priority

Ben: You still a believer in Addison Russell? Think he will hit for a respectable average this year?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely, not deterred at all. I do think he can start adding to the AVG

Aziz: How do you think saves will break down in Miami? Think Ramos holds the job? or gets traded if the Fish aren’t doing well?

Paul Sporer: I really like Ramos, so I think he will. But if he falters, I think Ziegler gets a shot

Michelle: 4×4 12-team AL only last keeper. $5 Healy or $22 Kipnis?

Paul Sporer: Healy

$$$: How much does an OBP league boost Bryce’s value at auction?

Paul Sporer: I’m not letting him get too deep in any league type, but he’s definitely top 5 in OBP

D-Nice: is Haninger worth a flier in a 10 team H2H league? Seems like he could bat 5th or 6th and be a nice OF5 or 6.

Paul Sporer: Depends how many reserves, but Jason and I are definitely hyped on him

Paul Sporer: Jose Berrios and Amir Garrett

Jimbob: Any recommendations on in season management apps/ sites to help manage multiple teams.

Paul Sporer: Whoops answered the Q before posting it lol

Marte: Your Fading Aces article was interesting. You seemed to point to the really high HR/9 rates playing a big role in the reasoning. Wouldn’t Thor’s 0.54 HR/9 rate make him even more appealing as a late 2nd rounder?

Paul Sporer: Ya as I mentioned, I totally get all of the Thor hype, but it is still a strong bet on a guy with 333 MLB IP who has had a balky elbow at times and an arsenal that could portend future issues. But I don’t question the talent at all

Junior : Why is everyone so down on Junior Guerrera this year?

Paul Sporer: Not a rich track record of 31-year old rookies going HAM

High Cheese: How do you think Odor will do with adult braces? Does this increase or decrease his value? Also, have you ever had braces and/or headgear?

Paul Sporer: Could really cut his lips if Bautista exacts revenge. I did have braces in high school

Buddy: You have your choice of one or the other. Polanco or Margot and Velasquez

Paul Sporer: Polanco, but it’s a fair deal

alan: keeper for next two years only: Dahl or Moncada

Paul Sporer: Dahl, even with the injury

Kevin J. Enright: I moved Wade Davis $3 and Dallas Keuchel $1 for C-Mart $5 in a H2H Points league. How’d I do?

Paul Sporer: Fine

Earnest: Excluding Betts, Trout and Altuve, who are your top 5 AL fantasy bats?

Paul Sporer: Machado, Miggy, Donaldson, Correa, and Cano

Frenchy: So they turned off the gun for Harvey’s start today. I hear he’s in the low 90s. Results were better, but I couldn’t watch because of no feed. Sounded like there were some hard hit balls. I have him as a keeper, so I guess I have to roll with it. Any insights about whether I should be worried about him as a #2 in a 20 team mixed? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Ya, I’d have some concerns as a #2. I’m just worried about thoracic outlet guys in their first year back. Love Harvey in general, but just not on him this year

Minty: I feel like this could be Benintendi’s peak trade value in an OBP keeper, agree?

Paul Sporer: Yep, the hype is sky high right now

Marte: Do you play in any innings capped leagues? Any strategy changes/thoughts for them?

Paul Sporer: I do and basically Ks becomes K9 and then I have ZERO interest in low K guys regardless of cost

#thegameisbeauty: Hey, Paul! RE: your HardballTimes piece, does the logic need to be tweaked in a H2H points scenario? Would performance consistency in the SP1/SP2 ranks serve to justify the cost of the top non-Kershaws, or is this just perceived scarcity creating unjustified desire? Thanks in advance. =)

Paul Sporer: I could certainly see it being different in H2H where SPs are a lot more valuable even if they are just logging solid innings.

HammelPants: I must decide on keepers by this weekend, help me Paul Sporer, you’re my only hope. Benintendi $5, Altuve $43, Bregman $5, Diaz $5, Carpenter $5, Kluber $19. Can only keep 3! Who do you keep from this tasty lot?

Paul Sporer: Beni, Breg, and Carp

Recca: How do I convince my co-manager to take Votto in an OBP league instead of Lester in the 1st round of a keeper league? We already have Kershaw, Schwarber, Springer, Dozier . . .

Paul Sporer: Lester over Votto? That’s insane!

High Cheese: every second sentence about fantasy baseball this year is about how steals are scarce and you people are paying a premium for steals. In my mind, this just means that the number of steals you need to be competitive in a category is less. Rather than targeting 80 SB, all that is needed is 60 (for instance). Does this make any sense or am I a big dummy?

Paul Sporer: You’re not a big dummy, no. I still prefer SB guys who do other things, like Villar or Turner. I’m still not overdrafting guys like Gordon or Hamilton

The OZ: I am in an nl only auction with zola tonight, any tips?!

Paul Sporer: Bid him up repeatedly 🙂

Ben: Would you keep Greg Bird in a keep forever over Rodon or Taillon?

Paul Sporer: Damn, that’s tough. Usually opt for hitters when it’s equal, but I think Rodon has a higher ceiling

Hack Wilson: How confident are you in Gerrit Cole as a #2 SP?

Paul Sporer: If he’s healthy, very. It’s a risk, but I’m still buying

Pomeranz: think $18 is too much for Dahl in an NL only with inflation?

Paul Sporer: It’s about my high end right now and I’d go for Parra, too

Human Fire Hydrant: $1 Broxton or $5 Schwarber in OBP legue?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably go Schwarber

Tony: Is Kimbrel still in the elite class of AL RP or has he slipped? Think the BB/WHIP settle back down and he’s a 2ish ERA guy again?

Paul Sporer: The giant BB% surge is concerning, but he weirdly has his 2nd best first pitch strike rate, too. I do still consider him a top AL closer

Benson DuBois: 15 saves for Kelley. Over or Under?

Paul Sporer: Under

Colby Rasmus‘ Neckbeard: is pick 160 too early to reach for greg bird in a redraft?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Tony: When you say ‘hyped’ on Haniger – are we talking like 260/330/440 with 20 HR?

Paul Sporer: ya with 10 SBs

RodandTod: Bellinger or Bird this year? How about after this year?

Paul Sporer: I think Bird gets more PT this year. They’re about a coinflip long-term

Charles: Keep two of M. Ozuna, G. Richards, S. Dyson, M. Brantley in a 6×6 roto keeper: who do you have? My other closer is Familia, both batters would be at UTIL (4 good OF already), and my rotation is already tops in the league.

Paul Sporer: Ozuna and probably Dyson since I think Familia will get a suspension and I think he could even lose the job to Reed

Votto’s Heel: Darvish or Cueto next season?

Paul Sporer: Darvish

Hector: Paul, it is getting down to crunch time. Which Bryce Harper will stand up next season?

Paul Sporer: The stud if he’s healthy

Mike: Am I crazy to keep Paxton over Arrietta in a points league. Love Paxton and I’m a little worried about Arrieta’s late season performance.

Paul Sporer: At equal cost? Probably. I love Paxton and I’m a low on Arrieta compared to the market, but at equal cost it’s still Arrieta

Maxamuz: Teheran and Beltran for G Polanco – which side?

Paul Sporer: Polanco

Chad: Do you like Parra this year in Colorado? Does Dahl injury increase his value? Will he rebound?

Paul Sporer: Ya I do and Dahl’s injury absolutely plays a major role

Tony: Bullish or Bearish on Carlos Gomez? Over/under on 750 OPS?

Paul Sporer: Bullish and over. Skills are still there when healthy

munenori kawasaki: dynasty, which side you taking freeman and giollito or sale?

Paul Sporer: Freef and Gio

Votto’s Heel: I traded one year of a cheap Trout and a 1st round pick for the 2016 draft for 6 years of cost controlled Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge. My league laughed at me, but I thought it was fair. How’d I do?

Paul Sporer: I’m afraid to say they were right laugh

Sean: Would you keep Darvish at $13 for 1 year, or $18 for 2 years

Paul Sporer: Just the one year

Tony: Matt Holliday – ZiPS calls for a career low 268 BABIP (331 wOBA); Steamer/Fans see more of a 270/360/465 guy – which way are you leaning?

Paul Sporer: I’m on the higher end. I think he’s gonna rake in NY

Alex: Roto OBP league….Forsythe or Semien for MI spot?

Paul Sporer: Forsythe

Wes: Who are some mid tier (30-50) OFs that you seem to be targeting most?

Paul Sporer: Joc, Kiermaier, Mazara, Puig, Grichuk — those are some in my 30-50 range I like http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-outfield/

Carl: What are the chances that Almora wins the full time job in CF by may?

Paul Sporer: It’s possible, especially from a defensive standpoint so it’s just a matter of his bat coming together

Moelicious: Which top 12 pitcher is a red flag for you other than Price?

Paul Sporer: Arrieta

Matt: How would you rank: CMartinez, Carrasco, DeGrom, Archer? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-starting-pitcher/

roger: Jeanmar Gomez was decent April thru August and then crapped the bed with an 8 inning 18 earnie September. We all know how good Neris is, but isn’t Gomez undervalued in leagues without an innings cap?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, he was still like a 2.2 K:BB through August so he’s pretty contact-dependent. I’m just not sold.

Michelle: P.S. You’re awesome!

Paul Sporer: Thanks

Michelle: Pick two to keep 14 team mixed, 45 man rosters: Nola @6, Lance Lynn @2, Cotton @1, Semien @3, Franco @8

Paul Sporer: Guess I have to answer this now that you called me awesome … Franco and Cotton for me

Sam: Lester’s the type of pitcher who could survive without velocity right? Please say yes…

Paul Sporer: Ya, I think. He certainly isn’t made great with velo

Evil Goatee Paul: When is the last time you thought about Terry Shumpert?

Paul Sporer: 9 seconds ago, but before seeing this question, I have no idea

Evil Goatee Paul: Would you rather keep Jacob Degrom or Carlos Martinez?

Paul Sporer: degrom

SZ: Does Ian Desmond get above each of these benchmarks again – .280/20HR/20SB/80R/80RBI?

Paul Sporer: Ya I can definitely see it. I’m geeked on him in Colorado

High Cheese: What was your greatest achievement at Dell?

Paul Sporer: LOL

Benson DuBois: What is your favorite stat service?

Paul Sporer: You mean for fantasy leagues? I like CBS. Been using Fantrax for some offseason stuff and been really impressed. Very responsive team that adds stuff on the spot, too

Rags: NL only OBP league. Is Parra a keep at 8?

Paul Sporer: I think if you throw him back, worst case if you get him back at the 8

your buddy kevin arnold: even though you didn’t answer my question…..thanks for the marathon today

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome!

Logan Morrison for $1, I guess: Holliday went for $13 in LABR AL. Everyone I’ve heard said he either $5 too cheap or $5 too much. Which is closer to the truth?

Paul Sporer: I’m Goldilocks, I think it’s just about right.

Trainman: So Tim tebow shouldn’t be on my sleeper lists for leagues right? hahahahah..

Twoseamers: moustakas triggs for danny duffy dynasty with K/BB

Paul Sporer: Gimme Duffy

old spartan: Keep Forever H2H points…G Sanchez or Trea?

Paul Sporer: Turner

Evil Goatee Paul: Terry Shumpert was a monster in 1999!

Paul Sporer: Beast season in Coors

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. These player caps are calling my name!

Need More Bangers: any more bangers to share? i too loved jump

Paul Sporer: I’m on that Redbone beat since seeing Get Out

Paul Sporer: Have a great weekend!

Paul Sporer: Hit me up on Twitter @sporer, Snapchat psporer, and Twitch at twitch.tv/psporer24 (going to stream some MLB the Show OR OOTP this weekend)