Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 30th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Thanks for coming out, let’s chat!

Greg: Why has Blake Snell been so bad this year?

Paul Sporer: His command has been particularly problematic and a .329 BABIP is exacerbating the issues

Kole Calhoun: What’s my value ROS?

Paul Sporer: Decent power OF worthy of consideration in 12+ teamers with 5 OF

Greg: Do you regret putting Vlad at #14 in your 1B rankings (behind absolute studs like Dom Smith, Alec Bohm, Moose)? You said “Not out on potential studification, but why buy this high on pure spec at a position like 1B?” Seems like everyone forgot that Vlad is only 22 is players improve.

Paul Sporer: Easy to say now when no one has any clue what you thought of him back in March, but no… no one forgot that. I thought paying that premium on the come at 1B in particular was risky. I ended with him 7th at 1B on my Patreon rankings before the season which was still low, but I realized he needed to be boosted.

Jerry: What is your take on Wander Franco so far? Following in the footsteps of other rookie phenom hitters called up so far, or about to figure things out?

Paul Sporer: Tiny sample hasn’t really shown anything one way or the other yet. .150 BABIP is holding things back but the core skills have been great (16% K and BB) so I don’t think we’re in the Kelenic zone right now

Josh: Trevor Larnch/Wilmer Flores, Bobby Bradley ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Larnach fan and he’s still batting 3rd/4th even with Kepler back. It would’ve been interesting to see what they did with him and Kiri had Buxton also stayed healthy, but for now he has locked in PT and is my fave. I really like Bradley’s upside, too, so he’s close as well

Richard: Hi Paul, do you prefer Larnach or Kepler ROS?

Paul Sporer: Larny!

Guest: Do you think Lux is going to show any more power or speed?  Or do you think his skills may not translate as well to fantasy?

Paul Sporer: It’s still super early to make too many sweeping judgments about him. He’s still at just 417 MLB PA. I still like him quite a bit and would buy in keeper/dynasty formats for sure. I can understand not loving his ROS in redrafts, but long-term, upside is high

Lamont Wade: I am sticking around, what’s my upside/value?

Paul Sporer: Seems pretty high with pop and some speed atop a quality lineup. Good plate skills, hits the ball well, Strikes me as a full season 25 HR/10 SB kind of guy

Nic: Who would you hold ROS — Kelenic or Longoria?

Paul Sporer: Still going Kelenic if I can only choose one. He’s not hurt and he’s instantly gone back to raking in AAA

Jerry: Is Mackenzie Gore a bust?

Paul Sporer: Waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early for any of that

Trey: In a 10 team league with 2 IL spots and 3 bench. Trout, Canha, Civale, and Means all down. Would you recommend dropping anyone to free up some bench or just wait it out?

Paul Sporer: Has to depend on the rest of your team. If your lineup is holding up fine, then hang onto everyone, but as a need arises, you have to consider axing Civale or Means at some pt

David B.: How do i research to see what players are bad at hitting breaking pitches? With the substance crackdown & less revolutions/break, I think some hitters will really benefit (obviously). Im just trying to find who those would be. Thanks for all of your content!

Paul Sporer: A shorthand could be looking at Pitch Type performance for hitters and see the guys who are bad against breakers – https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y…

Innings Cap: Hello Paul. I’m in a Yahoo league that has a cap of 1500 innings for all pitchers for the year. According to the Yahoo projections, I am going to go over by about 150 innings if I stay at the rate I’m going. How would you approach this? Only start my best pitchers? Ignore it and just run out when I run out? Only start on days with multiple SPs in order to get the most points? Something else? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: I don’t get too hung up on it. If the max you can get is 1500, it doesn’t matter when they end (unless it’s a h2h league or something then you need to make it to the finish line, but not in roto). Maybe don’t stream or start mediocre starters if you’re worried about losing some starts from your studs, but otherwise I’d just roll as is right now. Stuff will happen and your projection will fluctuate

Paul Mushrooms: Think Bradley is now the Phillies closer after Alvarado’s shaky start to his new role?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think they have a set closer

Greg: Re: Snell – His xERA is 5.37 so I hope your BABIP point is not that he’s been getting unlucky. SIERA is only 4.12 so that’s a good sign but I think we have to admit to ourselves that he is going to be a 4.00+ ERA and 1.25 WHIP guy going forward – Agree?

Paul Sporer: No, I said it’s exacerbating his BB issues. More hits dropping with more guys on base equals big trouble

Kate: Do you think Kim ever ends up with a starting role on SD?  Or does he need a trade?

Paul Sporer: Too early to tell and he’s pretty young. An injury could put him in a full role tomorrow let alone the future being wide open

Paul Mushrooms: I have 625 innings left to reach my cap. We use 3 SP, 2 RP, and 3 P spots daily, how many starters do you think I’ll need?  I currently have Schzerer, Rodon, Wheeler, Framber, and Manoah in a shallow ten team league.  Am I in good shape?

Paul Sporer: That’s a good crew to roll with and a 10-teamer will have quality waiver options if you need to bridge any gaps

Guest: 5×5 H2H Roto 14-teamer (OPS replaces Runs)

Should I trade Bassitt, Urquidy and Alvarado to buy low on Bellinger? Need an OF and have a ton of pitching, but not sure if you think Belli is questionable due to shoulder injury.

Paul Sporer: Belli is a bit questionable, but that’s why there is a buy low opp. and I think this fits your team well, pull the trigger!

Jerry: How many 2nd half saves would Vlad have to get to be the MVP by the end of the year?

Paul Sporer: Quite a few, lol! He’s been amazing, but I just don’t see how the AL MVP is anyone but Ohtani. Nothingggg against Vlad, he’s so so so good, but Ohtani isn’t too far off when it comes to hitting while adding 60 great IP

Hawk: Hey Paul! Is now the time to grab Jarren Duran in a 12 tm H2H points dynasty league? Even with the Olympics likelihood? Or can I afford to wait?

Paul Sporer: In dynasty, I’m cool with scooping him early

Paul Mushrooms: I know we’re all here to ask about our teams, let me be a gentleman and ask how your teams are doing? Perhaps make a poll with a question about your teams and we’ll help you out for a change.

Paul Sporer: I greatly appreciate that, but I’m happy to help y’all. I’m off to a decent start this year. 1st in my Main, 1st-7th-10th in my Online Championship lgs, 2nd in TGFBI, 8th of 12 in Tout, mid-pack in LABR, 2 gms out of playoffs in my H2H pts lg.

DH: Nolan Gorman was called up to AAA and will be playing 2B. Think he’s up and providing value this year?

Paul Sporer: It will definitely depend how he does in AAA, but I can definitely see him making the club at some pt this year if he continues to hit well

Paul Sporer: (and the defensive switch goes well)

El Oso Cafetero: Rank these guys for the rest of season: JT Brubaker, James Kaprielian, Jake Odorizzi, Patrick Sandoval

Paul Sporer: Reverse order of how you have em

FannyGraphy: Hi Paul, what would you say is the best stat to look at to find under the radar hitters, barrel %? XwOBA? Something else?

FannyGraphy: What about for contact hitters without much power? Their Statcast pages usually aren’t all red, so what’s the key stat for finding undervalued guys there?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know that there’s a magic bullet stat. I think you can definitely check out the two you mentioned and highlight the guys w/good xwOBA and Barrel rates who aren’t getting a ton of results and I definitely think it can be worth looking into high contact guys w/decent pop as guys who can jump a level or two in-season

Kate: Any chance Schwarber has found something sustainable in terms of a new level of production?  I mean obviously he’s not going to hit a HR everyday, but is there any reason to think he’s legit improved from what he’s done over the rest of his career?

Paul Sporer: I doubt it, I think it’s just a standard heater. He’s devastating righties and still can’t really hit lefties – the HR v. Hill last night notwithstanding. This surge puts him in line to set a new high in HRs, but his core skills are that of a 35-40 HR hitter w/a below average-to-decent AVG and solid OBP bc of his BB%.

Derek: Need some pop, 1st place in my 10 team keeper league and want to keep it going.  Trade Corey Seager and Lance McCullers to get Bryce Harper.  Is this too much or am I valuing my own players too much, like I tend to do…

Paul Sporer: I think that’s fair in a 10-teamer for sure. Your opponent is taking on the risk of two major injury guys, including one who is currently hurt and not progressing well in his return. This is a good one to do IMO

mary: What do you think of Yelich as a “buy low” for ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m not averse to it at all, but it has to be a true buy-low. In situations like this, I’m just up front with my trade partner. Something like “hey, I’m not trying to rip you off or anything, but obviously I can’t pay full price for him at this juncture.” and then present your offer with something that helps your partner’s team while still affording you a fair price on Yelly

Kate: Is Sano toast?  Is he done as a starter in Minny?

Paul Sporer: I feel like he’s essentially been himself in terms of core skills. The .243 BABIP is holding him back a bit, but he’s a low-.200s AVG, premium power source.

Trey: Do you think Mike Soroka will pitch in the majors again?

Paul Sporer: Yes, but it’s such a freakin bummer that he re-injured the Achilles

Kate: Let’s assume for a second that there was really something to Adames’ whole “I can’t see the ball in the Trop” thing (I’m not saying there’s not, just saying let’s assume that’s really a thing that makes him better leaving).  What do you think is a reasonable upside would be for him going forward?  25ish HR, 5ish steals and like a .330-.340 OBP?

Paul Sporer: I’m not assuming, I fully buy it. The split is far too stark to not give it merit. I think the numbers you outline are totally fair and could even see some more SBs since MIL likes to run

Guest: Better 16tm, QS H2H league option – Santillian or Tylor Megill?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure they are too dissimilar when it comes to skills, but I think Santillian has a much better shot to stick around long-term while the Mets will almost certainly upgrade their staff via some trades

Ed: Sorry for the vague question, but curious to get your outlook on how to approach things when you’re mostly out of it by mid-year in a redraft league. Had everything go wrong with one team (currently 10th out of 12 in a 5×5 roto redraft) and realize there’s likely not much I can do to save the season, but it’s not over yet. What sort of desperation moves do I start looking to make? Hoarding prospects, taking chances on injured guys, punting categories, etc – what’s the play(s)?

Paul Sporer: You’re on the right track w/the options that you mention and honestly I’d do all of em. Find a weak category that makes sense to punt (though if none stand out, just keep plugging away on all of ’em), take some big gambles on upside, and see if you can spike a big run to at least get back in the mix. If trades are allowed, consider some buy-lows. Maybe sell the couple stars you do have (assuming they aren’t all hurt) to plug multiple holes. And don’t give up on the ratio categories. They are often given up on way too soon in a season when they are the only cats where your opponents can come back to you w/poor performance.

Mk: Is right now the best time to buy low on Kenta Maeda?

Paul Sporer: Yes, this is a true buy low as things look remarkably bleak. There isn’t a ton in the stat profile to get excited about but you’re buying on the track record and it should come at a real discount

Jerry: Hector Neris at all worth stashing?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I know he’s the one on the shit list right now in Philly, but I can’t be convinced that Alvarado and Bradley are appreciably better

Save it for Later: Best chance at closer ROS…Merryweather or J.Romano?

Paul Sporer: I’m still on the Romano train

Snake v. Bear: Better ROS in a 12 Teamer, K.Calhoun or I.Happ?

Paul Sporer: It pains me as a Happ guy, but I gotta say Calhoun. Calhoun’s power has really emerged and Happ no longer looks like the chip-in SB guy he did early in his career, going just 4-for-8 since ’19

Liam: are you a zach thompson believer? if so are you starting vs atl this week?

Paul Sporer: I am, yes (check out this piece where I mentioned him – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/on-the-radar-vol-1/), but maaaan that is such a tough matchup, especially in Atlanta. I think it depends on league size, but I could see rolling the dice in deeper leagues.

Pdubs: Spencer Howard has been bad. Do you think he will move to relief, I don’t think he has pitched more than 4 innings since becoming a starter.

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. His BB rate is driving up those pitch counts and getting him out early, but they still see him as an SP. Maaaaybe they consider it for this year, but long-term, definitely still SP

Not_Matt_Damon: What are Adley Rutschman‘s and Spencer Torkelson’s chances of being on an MLB roster on opening day next season?

Paul Sporer: Low for both unless the CBA changes things this offseason. At the very least, they will get first couple weeks down for the svc. time manipulation… er I mean to work on very important things that can only be mastered in a 2-week sample of time at AAA lol

Eric: Any chance Andujar has a significant role for the Yankee’s next year?  I have him at minimum salary in an AL-Only keeper league, so there isn’t much risk in keeping him, but wondering what my expectations should be for next year

Paul Sporer: Really hard to say and I’d be no w/NYY. He feels like an easy trade candidate for them. They need to make some moves and a 26-year old who can hit a bit will garner some attention

Liam: are you expecting more pop from luke voit as the season progresses?

Paul Sporer: Yes, as long as he’s healthy, I fully expect him to rake

AJ: Is L. Wade Jr legit?  His AAA numbers weren’t great but he has produced well in MLB.  How would you rank L. Wade Jr., E. Olivares and K. Isbel in a keep forever league (ave, hr, rbi, ks, sb)

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. I mentioned him from another question earlier and there’s some real upside here, especially w/SF trusting him atop the lineup. Solid pop, lots of runs, and impactful speed (to me, anything 10+ is impactful)

Tree Pants: Do you see Alzolay getting back on track? Was great before the IL stint but has been iffy since coming off

Paul Sporer: Yes, provided the blister isn’t a recurring issue. Getting knocked around by the Dodgers isn’t too worrisome and somewhat expected, tbh. I know CLE got him a little bit, too, but that was the first start off the IL. I’m not worried about Alzolay ROS

Richard: Do you prefer Schoop or Ty France ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure there is a real difference between ’em, but I’ll pick France based on the fact that Schoop has to get traded (there’d be no pt to Detroit holding him IMO) and he could be traded into less than a full-time role whereas France is locked in as a full-timer

Jackie: K Hayes for Hader, fair trade?

Paul Sporer: Without any further context, it definitely checks out

Luis Castillo: Am I fully back? 1.71 ERA with 4 QS in June. About a K per inning. Chase % took a big jump over the month. What say you, Paul? Did the Fireside set me straight?

Paul Sporer: I believe so, yes. Early on during his struggles, I thought it was his standard hot/cold weather thing, but it went a bit beyond that as he was even struggling in some warm weather games, but now he looks like himself and the weather is heating up. The buy low opportunity is fully gone

Mr. Fister: How on earth does Brad Keller still have a job?  Statistically the worst pitcher in all of baseball, so I think we can shoot past the whole “he’s having an off year” stuff and go straight to the DFA conversation, no?

Paul Sporer: There’s no need to DFA him since he still has options. The fact is that even w/this year’s monstrous struggles, he’s still a career 4.08 ERA/4.13 FIP as a 25-year old. Perhaps they need to give him a blow down in AAA or put him in the pen for a bit, but completely getting rid of him is unnecessary, espec. for a team like KC

Re: Romano Train: All I can picture is a train made of cheese…..

Paul Sporer:

Cambodian Creamsicle: Marcus Semien is quietly having a top-5 in the MVP voting type year.  So, maybe 2019 was the legit Semien?

Paul Sporer: No doubt. I wasn’t moved off Semien based on last year at all. Loved when Toronto got him and really liked him for this year. He’s great!

Ryne Sandberg: Looking under the hood on Willy Adames statcast page isn’t too inspiring…

Paul Sporer: Yeah, not everyone is a Statcast darling and that’s OK. I think a lot of fantasy players put waaaaaaaaay too much weight on the SC profiles and if they aren’t blood red, they assume the player can’t be good. That said, as I look at it right now, I’m kinda wondering what you’re referencing specifically. 80th% HH, 83th% Barrel (I realize there’s some overlap there), 77th% Max EV, 80th% sprint speed. His K% is trash, but that’s really his TB work holding him back (35%) as he’s at a perfectly acceptable 24% w/MIL

Jerry: Thoughts on Pham?

Paul Sporer: Just a general note – and not to call you out specifically bc you’re not the only one – but “thoughts on” is far too vague to offer any real substance to you. Need something more specific to answer

Ashby: Well that went poorly…

Paul Sporer: Kowar-esque. It’s like that sometimes.

Zach: You prefer Z Thompson or Kyle Muller? Muller looks to have more upside, but the control is a worry.

Paul Sporer: Muller probably has more upside across multiple years, but I’m not sure he does for this season only. His command and control is a problem as you mention while Thompson’s command is concerning (see his HR9s in MiLB), but doesn’t share the control issues w/perfectly solid BB rates. They’re close so I’m really OK going with your personal preference. My preference is leaning Thompson

Parts and Gleyber: Who exactly picks the Futures Game rosters, and why is Dominguez, with all of 10 professional at bats, on one?  Seems like someone who has performed in pro ball for longer should have earned that spot.

Paul Sporer: I’m not exactly sure the picking process, but it’s meant to highlight the future stars of the game and Dominguez is absolutely expected to be one and is exactly the kind of guy who should be in a showcase like this. Sure, there are lesser prospects w/more stats under their belt, but if they don’t have the same upside for the future, it doesn’t make sense to take them. Those guys can make the ASG for their given league instead.

Jack off all trades: My preseason acquisition of Woodruff for Gleyber looks better by the day.  You slam dunked all over me for mentioning that trade back in April.

Paul Sporer: I did? Where? Show me where I did that because I had Woodruff as a top 10 starter so I don’t feel like I would’ve “slam dunked all over” you for it.

Rickey H.: Playing for next year in NL-only keeper league, have the chance to acquire T Edman or Alex Reyes.  If I knew for sure Reyes would be Card’s closer, I’d lean that way — but typical volatility among RPs makes me think Edman and his SB potential is right choice.  Agree?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: When it’s close, I go for the hitter for sure and with Reyes’ extreme volatility, it’s not even that close for me here. Edman for sure

Mike: Are you comfortable plugging Jesus Sanchez into your lineup every day?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league type & size, tbh

FantasyManager: Thoughts on mullins ROS? He just appeared in a biggest xWoba overperformer article, indicating regression, but his expected stats have been trending upwards over the last month too. Sell high? Hold?

Paul Sporer: I’m not really moved by the xwOBA stuff, tbh, as it’s just telling us what we should know inherently – someone out of nowhere playing like a superstar is bound to regress, but I’m not selling Mullins unless I have a specific need that he doesn’t cover and I can get a star player to fulfill (like an ace arm or something). Even if his power dips (and it likely will), he has the speed to remain productive and I’m willing to ride out this special season

mike: do you think wainwright can continue to pitch well and have enough steam to start the rest of the year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, as long as he continue to his hit suppression (which he’s been doing since last year, so now it’s 158 great IP). Heck, even in ’19 he was streamable with his best coming at home and a lot of his duds coming against quality teams that you could’ve easily avoided. He’s a firm team streamer for me right now. It’d take a really bad run to throw him back on the wire in any format right now

Kate: Reynolds with another bomb just now.  What kind of profile are we looking at here going forward?  Can he be a legit 25+ HR guy?  He’s chipped in a couple steals the last week too (I’ve been waiting for those as he rates pretty well in sprint speed).

Paul Sporer: Definitely cuts a mid-20s/7-10 SBs kind of profile right now. Nothing about his fall off made sense last year in terms of thinking that’s who he was now and yet despite outlining that on the OF preview pod back in January, I didn’t draft him anywhere. Fail!

Dr Pelotas: Thanks for doing these chats! 10-teamer, rank these SS ROS: Gleyber, Franco, Lindor

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming to them! Lindor, Franco, Torres for me with Lindor well ahead of the other two

FUn game: Brewers/Cubs – 7-6 in the bottom of the 3rd. Urias and Yelich (and maybe more) are going to get to hit in each of the 1st 3 innings. The Crew just used Eric Lauer to pinch-hit for the pitcher in the 3rd . . . .and he drew a walk. Good day to have Cubs and Brewers.

Paul Sporer: Yeah this game has been nuts! How about Urias’s last month of work: .282/.358/.464 w/4 HR & 2 SB in
123 PA

Johnny5Alive: Locastro available in an NL only – he was dropped when he got hurt. He has the SB potential, but will he play enough to be worth picking up with FAAB?

Paul Sporer: He’s a short-side platoon right now, but I think his speed enough to still consider in NL Only bc of how deep those leagues are plus the D’Backs should start moving folks out including Eduardo Escobar and David Peralta which could clear some extra time for Locastro.

July: Looking to move mccullers. Is pressly or diaz a fair target?

Paul Sporer: Depends on your trade partner, of course, but if the folks who have those closers can use an impact SP, then I think that’s a fair offer

Re: Slam dunk: I asked who got the better side of that trade and you said, and I quote “Gleyber, and it’s not close.”  I felt like that was at least a posterize dunk.

Paul Sporer: Again, where? I couldn’t find that in any cursory checks of my previous chats and I just don’t feel like I’d say that given my love for Woodruff

Paul Sporer: I only had one chat in April which is when you said I made this comment and I can’t find anything about Woody or Gleyber – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-chat-april-28th-2021/

Paul Sporer: And the only reason I’m pressing this so much is bc I don’t feel like I’d have had such a strong take against Woodruff. I know I get stuff wrong so it’s not about that, it’s specific to the players in question

Johnny5Alive: Strasburg looks like he might come back soon. Any expectations? Would you try to buy him if he was available?

Paul Sporer: It’s hard to have any significant expectations of him. I’d still keep him stashed on the IL if I have him or even consider picking him up in leagues where has been dumped, but I’m not expecting anything major right now

Woodruff: I drafted Woodruff over Snell at the last second because of you! (2nd round btw)

Paul Sporer: Let’s go! Snell is my guy, but I loved Woodruff coming into this year

Paddy: Who are the best non-closing relief pitchers ROS? Looking for ratio help

Paul Sporer: Jonathan Loaisiga, Collin McHugh, Giovanny Gallegos, Andrew Kittredge, JP Feyereisen, Chad Green, and Ryan Tepera are some that I like

Mooseknuckle Curves: I have broken up with Montas for ever. Light him on fire.

Paul Sporer: Noooo!!! I can’t say I don’t get it, but I’m sticking with him. That Texas start was tough to swallow, though

Mooseknuckle Curves: Kopech

Paul Sporer: ^ another stud middle RP… though might not be as available since many are still stashing him for potential SP upside

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta go cut the grass before it rains again. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later this week (maaaaybe tonight after trivia, but I’m not sure) and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!