Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 29th, 2018

Paul Sporer: It’s Friday afternoon, time to talk some baseball!!

RJ: Kyle Tucker or Eloy Jimenez — better production (2018 only)??

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Tucker. He’s got the speed aspect and CWS might just leave Eloy down until a Sept. call up

BigTuna: How worried are you about Springer? 4 for his last 54

Paul Sporer: 0%?

David’s Peralta: What is going on with Tommy Pham? Are we still fans?

Paul Sporer: Covered him here – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-hail-mary-hitters-ss-3b-of/ — he’s dealing with a mechanical issue

Bo: Sounds like Acuna will be 5/6 in the order… Better for his value?

Paul Sporer: Batting 2nd was definitely better, but this isn’t necessarily bad. And if he dominates, he’ll likely move back up

Zock Jr.: Got Muncy for my Yadi+Lucchesi in a 16-team rebuilding league. How’d I do?

Paul Sporer: I’m good with that deal. Wonder if it might be worth flipping Muncy for a younger player

Fredrick: My real life team is bad. my fantasy team is bad. can this season be over already?

Paul Sporer: Aw man, I’ve been there. Buuut you could play some DFS or maybe cop a PS4 and play some MLB The Show to get your baseball fill. But let’s not wish the season over sooner than it will be already

CT: Paul, thanks as always for the chat. For my weekly lineup, please pick three: V. Velasquez (@PIT), R. Stripling (@LAA), K. Gausman (@MIN), C. Stratton (@COL, vStL), or L. Castillo (v.CWS, @CHC)

Paul Sporer: Strip, VV, and then I’ll go Castillo over Gaus. No chance on Stratton at COL

Tiny Tim: Is my Mikolas for his Kyle Seager a fair trade?  Dynasty points league.

Paul Sporer: Ya for sure

Jake: We need more Charlotte on the podcasts!  She’s the real star

Paul Sporer: Verrryyy true.

Paul Sporer: A video pod of Char. Imagine her with some little headphones on lol

KM: Any chance Jose Abreu is dealt to a contender this year?

Paul Sporer: Certainly possible. He’s been rumored in deals for a couple years now. Who among the contenders needs a 1B?

Shuck Bowalter: Any chance we see Bo Bichette this year?

Paul Sporer: Probably not

JN14: How should we value Jesus Aguilar going forward?

Paul Sporer: As a top 12ish 1B

Jake: but really why is the Astros bullpen so unsettled with all their quality arms.  Is this a trend we should expect, moving away from a set closer

Paul Sporer: Definitely a growing trend and it makes a lot of sense for real life, but makes save chasing even more nauseating in fantasy

Franky: Austin Riley up this year or naw? Braves dealing for Machado or Moose?

Paul Sporer: Riley could be part of a deal and then come up for his new team. Not sure he comes up with ATL barring a major run, though

Matt S: More saves ROS: Rondon or Dominguez?

Paul Sporer: Seranthony

Shave your mustache: Winker over Conforto ROS? Avg and OBP league..

BigTuna: PitcherList had a blurb that Jesse Winkler’s launch angle would lead to more HRs. He’s started to hit some. Would you be adding in 12 tm OPS leagues?

Paul Sporer: I’m good with that move and open to considering him in 12 tm. I’ve been fading Conforto all year bc of the shoulder, though that was more of a draft season thing.

BigTuna: Jackie Bradley seems to have found his swing a bit. How would you rate him amongst Gorkys, Parra and the Dentist?

Paul Sporer: Ahead of all of em unless you need The Dentist’s speed (Deshields)

KM: Any chance Jose Abreu is dealt to a contender this year? If so, any guesses as to who?

Paul Sporer: Don’t repeat questions, be patient… there’s a lengthy queue

Kevin: My cursor is hovering over the drop button for Jon Gray, and yet, I am intoxicated by those succulent strikeouts. 12 team, H2H, 5×5.

Paul Sporer: Honestly, I understand moving on in 12-team. Another home start next week and then probably 2-start the following week, but both home.

Matt S: Should I bother holding onto Josh Donaldson?  10 team H2H mixed.  Only 3 bench spots and 1 DL (currently occupied by Thor).  Currently in 1st place.

Paul Sporer: Ya, you gotta hold onto Donaldson

Harper’s Bryce: Judge or Soto in an OPS dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: Still Judge. Love Soto, but can’t go that far with it

Koven Appuer: Wily is back, baby!

Paul Sporer: I’m here for Wily the closer (Wily Peralta closing in KC for those unaware), but I wouldn’t get tooooo excited as he’s still a flawed arm and they won’t have many chances anyway. You save-scroungers can jump on him, though

Brian: I have an extreme love/hate relationship with Jon Gray. He repeatedly punches me in the face, and I just apologize for getting in the way of his fist and I keep him rostered. That is all.

Paul Sporer: LOL, I just discussed Gray, but the face punch thing was too funny not to post

RJ: Is it possible that Shane Bieber’s career ceiling is Cliff Lee? Bieber has 22 BBs in 298.1 IP in his pro career, good for a 0.7 BB/9.

Paul Sporer: That’s a quick sprint to his best case scenario. Looooootttttaaa low-walk guys to comp him to in between his current level and Lee. I do like Bieber and think he’s an all formats play right now

Danny: Is Nick Kingham coming back up and how much do you like him if he is in the rotation?

Paul Sporer: I’ll let Nick take this one and use this opportunity for a quick pee break – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-its-time-for-nick-…

Brad: Tim Anderson is good right?

Paul Sporer: at???

Paul Sporer: Just kidding… ya he’s pretty good, especially in fantasy with HR and SB

Moelicious: What is wrong with Kyle Hendricks? Lots of HR and walks this year

Paul Sporer: 42 mph fastballs don’t hold up like they used to!

Paul Sporer: Jokes aside, I’ve never been a huge Hendricks fan with my biggest concern being his tiny margin for error. He HAS to maintain an 80% LOB rate to keep his numbers strong and that’s just not reasonable.

Paul Sporer: He’s a high-3.00s, low-4.00s guy with no Ks … that’s a 10- and 12-team streamer

Joe: my mikolas for his conforto and moran.  Need hitting, ok on SP. All 3 at good keeper prices.  thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Dig it, think Moran is a possible gem, too. Even if the 2 hitters you got are just solid-average the rest of the year, they both have good future upside

Clemson: Any big movers in the upcoming July SP rankings from you? Big movers up and/or down?

Paul Sporer: Find out Monday!

Matt S: Is Andrew Heaney a must start?

Paul Sporer: He will be moved down a little

Koven Appuer: I’m going, going–back, back–to Wily, Wily

Paul Sporer: Wily Peralta getting so much love today

Grey: Is Quintana droppable in a 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: I’d try to keep him reserved, but if it’s not feasible and you have someone you want to pick up, I’m good with it. The walks just haven’t gotten better

Larry Legend: What do you think of Fulmer’s value if he goes to the Yankees?

Paul Sporer: He’d certainly be on a better team, but his core issues wouldn’t really change unless they’ve identified something to bring his changeup back and help him get through the lineup a third time more effectively

The real Lars: Do you like Aaron Hicks going forward?

Paul Sporer: I love Hicks. His talent isn’t really the question IMO, but rather the health which has been a career-long issue. Holding him anywhere I have him, though, for sure

question on Acuna: Can he up his average this year?

Paul Sporer: He can, yes.

yojiveself: Will Drury start taking AB’s away from Andujar?

Paul Sporer: Maybe a rest day here and there, but I think he’s up to face lefties at 1B

Squints: Is Luis Castillo droppable in a 10 team points league?

Paul Sporer: You can, yes.

Paul Sporer: In 12s I’m trying to keep him reserved, but I can’t say he’s a hold in 10 teamers right now

Kevin: Are you taking away anything from that Buehler hiccup yesterday, or was skipping a rehab session an error?

Paul Sporer: Nah, not really taking anything from it

Two Quesion Man: Can Eflin keep up his overall numbers?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t project him for a 3.02 ERA rest of year, but he’s definitely different and markedly better than previous iterations we’ve seen. Big velo spike, more sliders, more changeups. I buy Eflin as a mixed league play for sure

Bart : Some guy in my league keeps offering me deals for Harper.  Is there anyway in this world you would trade Harper for Bellinger and LaGrom?

Paul Sporer: Belly and deGrom? That’s certainly plausible

Kyle: Rocking the Muncy and Nimmo train, should I be aiming to sell high?

Paul Sporer: If you can, yes. Both have made believable improvements, but I’d gladly sell high on either

Gavin: How about the other Peralta….is Freddy worth keeping ROS or try to sell high?

Paul Sporer: Always open to selling high if it improves your team. It’s just a matter of if you’re really selling high. Most fantasy owners won’t be fooled into overpaying for a flavor of the month, but you gotta explore your trade market. I dig Peralta and think he’s rosterable in all formats at least as a streamer that you keep on reserve

Connor : Burrows, Faedo, or Manning

Paul Sporer: Tigers future Hall of Famers 🙂

Luck Dragons: What do you think about ESPN’s player rater as a measure for someone’s fantasy success?

Paul Sporer: I use it as a shorthand quite often

Juan: Would you trade Juan Soto for Max Scherzer in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: If I’m contending this year and need pitching, absolutely

Mike: is Schoop this bad?  Hold on in 10 team mixed?

Paul Sporer: Covered here – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-hail-mary-hitters-c-1b-2b/ — likely still not 100%

Rocco: Whats the probability that Dozier turns it around this year?

Paul Sporer: I’m trying not to just bank on it bc he’s had elite 2Hs before, but I have a hard time not thinking he’ll surge in the summer. I’m buying

Lovely Rita: Would you start Rich Hill tonight at home against the Rockies?

Paul Sporer: No, Colorado is awesome v. L

Billy Bathhouse: Drop one of Familia/Giles/Britton for Dan Winkler in a SV+HLDs league?

Paul Sporer: Giles

brian: madbum, think he’s on his way back? have you seen anything good or bad in his starts so far?

Paul Sporer: Def looking like MadBum in his last 2 and boosting my confidence in him

Goods: Any reason to roster Jung Ho Kang in 12-team mixed, points league?

Paul Sporer: Nah, he was DL’d in the minors. Cut him while we wait for him to get right and near a call up

808: ya starting EROD tonight at NYY?

Paul Sporer: No league context, but I’m gonna lean no if it’s a shallower lg

Matt: Similar to the player-rater question – Is it fair to quickly sort FG leaderboards on wRC+ as a measurement of fantasy value?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, it gives you an idea on hitting, but doesn’t account for speed or R/RBI context

Kyle: Is Anthony Rendon one of the hitters that isn’t flashy enough to get his perceived value to match is actual value?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s just boringly solid. Maybe a little better version of Kyle Seager?

JJ: Can you put Kyle Tucker in perspective?  Let’s say Vlad Jr, Eloy, Brendan Rodgers and a healthy Senzel all were called up today – where does Tucker fall within that group?

Paul Sporer: Behind only Vlad for me

WIN: Would you start Pivetta tonight vs Washington?

Paul Sporer: yes

thatdude: Drop Castillo for Lugo or Kingham?

Paul Sporer: Lugo

Ned: Is this year’s The Show a significant upgrade over last year’s? Never played and was thinking of just grabbing an older copy at a discount.

Paul Sporer: If you play Diamond Dynasty, I’d get the new one. Tons of new content and a lot more players online than in 17

AKA22: Luke Weaver for Chris Taylor. Fair? Given up on either one?

Paul Sporer: Fair for both if needs align

Groot: If I offered you a bag of baseballs for Daniel Murphy, would you at least consider it?

Paul Sporer: I mean, we can’t be THAT surprised given his health coming into the season. But I’d be more willing to buy low than sell low rn

Mark: Start Alcantara tonight in deep leagues or nah?

Paul Sporer: It is the Mets, but it’s not like he was destroying Triple-A so it’s still really risky even in deep lgs

Paul Sporer: OK yall, I gotta roll. Podcasting here soon! Thanks for coming out and look for my updated SP rankings in a couple days! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24). I’ll be live streaming MLB The Show later tonight twitch.tv/psporer24 and you can definitely ask your fantasy questions there!