Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 7th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Welcome, everyone! Let’s talk some baseball!

CT: Hey Paul, looking to replace Grandal (like everyone else) in a 12tm 6×6. Sean Murphy and Max Stassi are both on the wire. They both have their pros and cons, but what say you for the next 4-6 weeks? Appreciate the help and the chat!

Paul Sporer: I love Stassi, I definitely prefer him here

Guest: Thoughts on Urquidy, who does not appear on your Patreon SP List?

Paul Sporer: I’m not really ranking injury guys until they return, but I’m still a huge fan. He’s just an uncertainty right now

Rays: How do you feel about Luis Patino’s performance this far for the Rays?

Paul Sporer: The skills are there but the standard young arm volatility will add some risk. I do think he gets some real innings in the summer given the SP issues in Tampa Bay

Eric: It’s Brujan time! Assuming he plays the rest of the season, what do you think his line looks like?

Paul Sporer: Something like 5-7 HR/12-14 SB

Adell: Instead of the trade question lol When do you feel a call up is warranted?

Paul Sporer: When he stops striking out 30% of the time in AAA

Matt L: Which Catcher do you prefer ROS in a 12 team 1 catcher league; Stassi, Haase, or Murphy?

Paul Sporer: You’ve listed them in my order with a strong preference for Stassi

Skip: Hi Paul, 12 tm 6×6 do you like Carlson for ROS or would you add Cron or Kirilloff for util spot?

Paul Sporer: I’m sticking with Carlson

Chantanella: Thanks for these chats, Paul!

Paul Sporer: You’re quite welcome, I appreciate y’all coming out!

Tristan: Hey Paul, thanks for these chats! How would you the following guys ROS? QS, W/L, Ks, ERA league.Skubal, Manoah,

Paul Sporer: I gotta slot Manoah over my beloved Skubal (I’m a Tigres fan for those unaware). I like the development we’ve seen from both, but I think Manoah is a more complete arm at this juncture

Eric: Duvall is a top ___ OF this year and next?

Paul Sporer: Very hard to say next season so I’m gonna punt on that but I’ll say at least top 40 ROS

Tristan: Hey Paul, thanks for doing these chats! How would you rank the following guys ROS? QS, W/L, K, ERA league. Skubal, Manoah, McClanahan, Sandoval, Zach Thompson, Gomber, Stripling

Paul Sporer: Oh sorry I didn’t see you had more arms. Manoah, McClanahan, Skubal, Thompson, Sandoval, Stripling, Gomber

BD: Who do you like for a struggling middle infield: Wilmer Flores, Nico Hoerner, JP Crawford?

Paul Sporer: Crawford or Flores for me

CT: Do you think Semien can sustain these numbers in the second half? I need to bolster pitching (12tm 6×6) and think he could be a good sell high candidate. Something like Semien/mid-tier pitcher X for Charlie Morton/Luke Voit (two bounce back candidates)

Paul Sporer: Maybe not the exact rates, but I believe in him as a star player, yes

Zee: Is Gleyber broken? ROS of season expectations?

Paul Sporer: It’s not great and it’s hard to find a ton of upside right now. I’d shave the projections down a bit and work off that – https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gleyber-torres/16997/stats?position=…

Conforto: How are you feeling about Conforto’s performance thus far?

Paul Sporer: It hasn’t been great, but the core skills are still fine and a low BABIP should regress back toward his standard.

Steve Trout: I have an opportunity to garner Juan Soto in my keeper salary cap league for a very affordable price.  I read an interesting write up about his struggles on Fangraphs (as a subscriber!).  What do we know about GB rates and how they fluctuate over time?  Also, he’s not pulling the ball as much…lingering shoulder issues from the Spring?  Thanks.

Paul Sporer: I could see the shoulder still carrying over a little, but I’m 100000% interested in buying low on Soto in a keeper league. I wouldn’t hesistate.

Kate: How rare is it to see a big command jump in one year (maybe this year is actually two because of the pandemic)?  Thinking a guy like Muller who Eric had rated as like a 35 command guy coming into the season.

Paul Sporer: It’s not impossible. I think both Muller and Thompson have shown some better command than what they were rated with, but we haven’t hit the point in their samples to say it’s 100% legit yet. I’m buying on both right now bc the upside is substantial but I know there’s risk w/both related to that command

Steve Trout: Following around on Skubal…the hard hit metrics and xERA and xFIP are not loving him.  Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: He has improved within the season: 2.8 HR/9 in the first 9 starts; 1.0 in the 8 starts since (w/60 Ks in 44.7 IP) so we’ve seen some development. I haven’t fully investigated the differences in the samples, but I’m going to put in on my To Do list and include it in the next On the Radar (out tomorrow!)

Kate: Do you see anything legit growth from Pivetta that points to a sustainable uptick in production?  Or is he always going to be kind of a cherry bomb to use one of Nick Pollack’s terms?

Paul Sporer: I think cherry bomb remains applicable but at least he has cut the frequency of the bombs, but if you look at his last two bombs, they included 3 and 4 HRs. He isn’t fully past his HR issues which will still make him a risk

Derek: In a roto keeper league, would you trade Corey Seager for Freddie Freeman?  I am in first place but need to move in RBI.  I have Tatis and Chris Taylor at ss and have been stringing together Carlos Santana and Colin Moran at 1b…  Keeper costs are irrelevant

Paul Sporer: I would indeed. In win-now mode, getting a star for an injured star absolutely works

Luzardo: I wonder if he’s still hurt and playing through or if his confidence is actually shaken?

Paul Sporer: I could see a mix. This is definitely a lost season, but I’m not going to completely abandon him going forward

Kate: Your heavy support for an Adames breakout in MIL is looking good right now.  I thought he’d be better, but I was dubious he’d see a major jump.  Certainly looking great so far.

Paul Sporer: Sometimes the smoking gun feels too obvious and we balk at it, I can totally understand that, but looking at his home/road w/TB and hearing he couldn’t see the ball at the Trop just tracked for me and he was a player I’ve been bought in on previously so it was nice to see that we might’ve finally found the reason he didn’t jump off completely… until the trade. I’m really excited for his 2nd half and beyond now. I think he’s a future All Star

Insert Name Here: Which prospect has you most excited to watch outside of Wander?

Paul Sporer: Not to be on the nose since he’s literally debuting right now, but it’s Brujan. I’m really excited about him. He reminds me of another favorite of mine: Ozzie Albies

Big Tuna: Dylan Carlson has been – fine – this year. Is he droppable in 12 tm OPS leagues?

Paul Sporer: I agree that he’s simply been fine and you’d think that could be cuttable in something like a 12, but my experience w/the OF waiver wires this year is that you’re unlikely to find something appreciably better so I’m holding. In 3 OF leagues, the wire may be more fruitful, but the 5 OF lgs I’ve played (of all sizes, ranging 10-15 teams) haven’t produced anything good enough to cut Carlson for IMO

Armin Tamzarian: Thanks for the chat Paul! Can you rank ROS: Joe Ross, Jordan Montgomery, Alex Wood. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: In reverse order of your listing here, though I’ll point out that it’s close at 52-65-68

Corbin Burnes: My SwStr% is down nearly 10% over my last few starts — any concerns?

Paul Sporer: A little, but I just don’t think it’s actionable bc I’m not benching him or selling so we just have to keep an eye on him and hope he can turn the tide on the this downturn

Big Tuna: Are you buying into Orlando Arcia in any leagues? Used to be a high profile prospect and was hitting pretty well in AAA.

Paul Sporer: A bit, yeah. He’s just 26 and he was dominating in Triple-A. It’d be one thing if he just had a handful of homers w/modest underlying skills, but everything was popping in AAA so I’m willing to take a shot with him

DJ: Any chance Rowdy Tellez gets sprinkled with a bit of the Willy Adames magic dust?

Paul Sporer: That’d be great! I was in on him coming into the year hoping he could maintain some of those K gains and go off. I’m definitely not running to get him to same level I did with Adames, though

Dustin: Is Francisco Mejia a bust at this point?

Paul Sporer: I’d like him to get at least 1000 MLB PA before going that far and he’s only at 509 so not yet, no

VR: What does the Tigers bullpen look like after the deadline?

Paul Sporer: Still shitty, lol

Paul Sporer: I think Cisnero has to go as he’s 32 and not part of the Tigers next good team. They might move Fulmer too and fully clear things for Soto.

Matt: Do you think last night’s start was the turning point for a strong 2nd half for Tony Gonsolin? He finally topped 5 innings and 80 pitches

Paul Sporer: And only 1 BB. I see him ready for a big 2H and he could be an IP leader in the 2H given that he’s only at 21 IP so far this year

big fan: I wanna be sprinkled with Adames magic dust.

Paul Sporer: Me too!!

Cavan Biggio: Why is anyone still holding onto me?

Paul Sporer: Track record, decent work vR, and a strong June

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, a little bit of a shorty today as I’m under the weather but I’ll be back next week! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

Paul Sporer: Whoops, that’s my copy & paste outro w/the streaming thing… I’m not certain to be streaming tonight given the previous under the weather comment I just made. Anyway, thanks y’all!!!