Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 14th, 2017

Paul Sporer: My SP rankings are updated, let’s talk some baseball!!

Bob: Hey Paul!  Thanks for the rankings update.  I was offered Yu for my GCole and Arrieta in a QS league.  Take it?

Paul Sporer: No problem! I might do that in a shallower league, but it’s steep

Hans Kluber: Why did Danny Duffy’s RoS suddenly change dramatically for ERA?

Paul Sporer: Not sure

brad: Thanks for sp rankings and back to back chats.  How come Rg hasn’t been doing rankings on other positions?  thanks.

Paul Sporer: Just not something we’ve prioritized. I think SP rankings are most important in-season. Hitters are so standings-dependent, IMO.

Thanks for the chat!: Is chris davis a top 20 first basemen ROS when he comes back?

Paul Sporer: Give or take. There are large clusters of similar 1B after the top 10

seth: Schebler for Alonso, who you got this year?

Paul Sporer: Alonso by a nose in hopes he’s traded somewhere to boost his R/RBI output

Hans Kluber: OBP/QS League 3 Keepers: McCullers+Schoop too much for Altuve?

Paul Sporer: No, might not be enough tbh.

Mark Matheny: I was offered Miggy for Quintana and Moncada in dynasty. I’m in 1st and have Alonso at !B. Should I make this move?

Paul Sporer: Nah. I do think Miggy will have a strong run at some pt over the 2nd half, but if I’m dealing Moncada it’s to get a bigger upgrade and something more bankable. While I have confidence in the skills Miggy has shown even with the results being light, his health is a lingering concern

Hans Kluber: Sean Manaea or Danny Duffy?

Paul Sporer: lol http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitcher-rankings-update-july

George is Curious: Currently rolling out Victor Martinez as 1B in my AL-only keeper league. I can probably toss a few auction dollars to a fellow GM for either LoMo or C. Davis. Should I go for the upgrade and if so, which guy do I target?

Paul Sporer: A worthy upgrade, yes. Davis if he’s cheaper; LoMo if they cost the same

Tony the Tiger: Is it a foregone conclusion that the Tigers are trading away Justin Wilson?

Paul Sporer: No, but quite likely it seems

Thanks for the chat!: Are there plans to create tiered rankings for other positions? It’s much more helpful to new players to evaluate across positions for trades/upgrades (e.g. target a tier II 2B for a SS starting pitcher)

Paul Sporer: There are not, sorry

Mike: Traded Justin Turner, Edwin Encarnacion and Addison Reed for Corey Seager, Josh Donaldson and Kenta Maeda. Shallow league, I’ll probably cut Maeda. Guessing Reed gets dealt to a non-closer role. You like the deal?

Paul Sporer: Seems fine. Probably neutral, but there is a path to winning the deal, espec if JD is traded and goes off

Berrio-good: Is Moncada, Buxton, Mazara, and Berrios too much to offer for Sale in a dynasty league. I’m going for it this year.

Paul Sporer: That seems pretty steep, though I’d imagine only Mazara was in your lineup outside of Berrios who is being replaced by Sale. Feel like 3 of the 4 should get it done, no?

Mike: Who is Washington’s closer until they trade for someone? Fat Albers?

Paul Sporer: Seems to be committee until the trade

Taylor: fantasy keeper question: feel my team is in position to win now, but want to get fair value for Robles. I give up Robles (4 year keeper once called up) and cueto (gone after this year). I receive greinke (keeper for next year too), wade Davis (gone after this year) and sixto Sanchez (4 year keeper once called up). Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Assuming the SP/RP combo offers high impact for your standings, that seems fair and you’re still getting a future piece in Sanchez

Please Help: I lost Quintana and am now down to 4 SP. I could add some scrubs off the FA list, but I’m afraid of blowing up my ERA. Am I better off waiting to add pitching help until teams sell and better options open up?

Paul Sporer: Lost him in AL-only? Ya, probably go with some middle relievers in hopes that some NLers come over

Hausy: Would you give up Ahmed Rosario who I keep for $1 for 4 years for Machado who I keep for 4 years at $52? ($260 budget)

Paul Sporer: I imagine you’re going for it this year? I’d do it

Mike: Are you worried that Bum will be himself ROS or should I be cautious in buying for ROS

Paul Sporer: Always a little concerned when someone is returning from injury, but I ranked him quite high

King: 12 team OBP: Would you move CMart ($18), + Yelich ($22) for Machado (unkeepable) and one of Archer ($20) or Quintana ($8). sano shifts to OF, Machado at 3B.

Paul Sporer: I would, yes

Devil’s Advocate: Why wouldn’t I drop Story for DeJong at this point?

Paul Sporer: Because DeJong seems unlikely to maintain given his plate skills and Story could have his DeJong moment any time now

Alex: Where do you value AJ Pollock? Is he still a Top 50 guy like he was drafted?

Paul Sporer: Top 50 feels a little high

Paul Sporer: But the speed keeps him top 30 OF

Paul Sporer: (I assume you meant Top 50 overall w/your Q)

seth: In my 15 team league, 33 man rosters, we can trade future draft dollars (up to $12). Is it worth burning a dollar on Luis Castillo? I feel like I have a deep staff, but injuries always around the corner (Kershaw, Ray, Price, Godley, Verlander, Happ, Berrios, Shark)

Paul Sporer: I’d definitely throw a buck at him. The talent and raw stuff is hot

another bad dynasty manager: Hi Paul: thx for the rankings update! Can you give me any info on whether or not Karns will have that TOS surgery?  I have him in both a 16 team pts. league and an AL-only league.

Paul Sporer: I haven’t seen anything new recently

Anthony: 10 teamer…Jordan Montgomery, or Aaron Sanchez. I know you JUST posted your updated rankings, but are you at all concerned about Sanchez? Seems like something reliable vs. question marks and higher upside.

Paul Sporer: Ya they’re only a few ranks apart so you can really take your pick. I do have some concern for Sanchez, but I don’t want to react too sharply to the dud v. HOU off the DL

TK: what type of SP or RP should I expect back for puig?

Paul Sporer: These questions are impossible. It really depends on your market.

Paul Sporer: I’d keep expectations low, though

Michael Pineda: Tommy John for me. No more HRs for 12+ months…

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s a bummer. As frustrating as he can be on the mound, still prefer him to be out there pitching

Perl: Khris Davis $7 for Carlos Martinez  $11 ottoneu 5×5 who wins?

Paul Sporer: Think I prefer CMart

JimyJam: Hey Paul, thanks for the updated rankings! In a 12t H2H dynasty, I now have 4/5 Cubs SPs due to the Q trade (all but Arrieta). Is this good, bad or neither and should I do anything about it? Currently sitting in 1st on the strength of my offense.

Paul Sporer: I usually don’t get too worried about things like that. It’s not like something in football where if you have QB, RB, WR and they get shutout you’re toast.

Thanks for the chat!: Brad Peacock – who are you not starting him against? At least in the AL?

Paul Sporer: Maybe Boston? I’m running him out there regularly

Rickon: How important is positional eligibility for your borderline bench guys? For example, Peraza is on my team to steal bases. He starts maybe 2-3 games per week. Is that 2B/SS/OF worth keeping him on the roster over someone like Mallex.

Paul Sporer: I value it for sure and in that particular case where both are super speedsters, I’d favor Peraza

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: DeGrom for Dee Gordon fair in a vacuum?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’d say so

Paul Sporer: The vacuum where the Gordon getter needs SBs of course

Sandy Ravage: Thoughts on Aaron Nola in a dynasty? Is he a top 20 SP (or better) in H2H at some point?

Paul Sporer: He’s around there. I really like healthy Nola

Jason: How valuable is Fulmer if he regresses like SIERA suggests or Steamer projections?

Paul Sporer: I mean, he’d be around others who have a 4-something ERA, but I just don’t see him falling to that level. I realize his Ks aren’t there, but he favors efficiency and I just don’t see him as a 4-ERA guy

seth: Betances cuttable in 15 team 5×5? Those BB worry me!

Paul Sporer: ya the awful WHIP and solid-but-unspectacular ERA cancel the value of his Ks

Chuck: I have to cut one: Michael Brantley or Carlos Santana?

Paul Sporer: Santana

Luck Dragons: Is Alex Wood injury prone? What is the evidence

Paul Sporer: He’s had shoulder and elbow issues in the past, but “injury prone” is a weird tag

Andy: Everyone has Wainwright around 100- he’s been getting babip-ed to death and now his k/bb is getting better too- are we sure he sucks?

Paul Sporer: He got BABIP’d a bunch last year, too. At some point, it’s on him as well and not just bad luck

Chuck: Villar or Stalin Castro ROS?

Paul Sporer: At the risk of copping out, it’s really needs-based. If you need SBs, you go Villar

Thanks for the chat!: Do you see any hope for Roark this season?

Paul Sporer: Not really, no. The fastball just isn’t there

Luck Dragons: Is Carlos Rodon a walk machine?

Paul Sporer: He’d really improved his BB% last year so I’m not going to say this rate through 3 starts is his new level

Tim: Jimmy Nelson at 25 in your ranks, woah. You didn’t sound quite as high on him as Eno did. Has something changed for you?

Paul Sporer: Part of it is the lack of other reliables to slot ahead of him, but that 20% K-BB is sexy

Miller: Moncada for Grienke fair in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes

808: ottoneu fangraphs points…im offering $27 archer $33 yelich for his $65 trout and $3 faria.

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure it gets the job done

Paully: Hey Paul, whats up with Wil Myers? I got Rizzo Alosono and Myers. Is he the odd man out and should be traded?

Paul Sporer: Nothing is up, he’s pacing to 2016 almost exactly. I’d still favor him over Alonso bc of the speed

Dave: For the “minors” guys– is your ranking based on impact if they’re in the majors or a combination of impact/opportunity?

Paul Sporer: They aren’t ranked actually. Was thinking of doing a separate piece about minor leaguers

dave in slc: nl only faab how much do you throw at quintana? any other difference makers that may come over or take the bird in the hand?

Paul Sporer: Not sure who’d come over that is better, so I’d focus on him for sure. I’d be putting most of my budget on him if SP was my big need

Thanks for the chat!: If STL trades/loses a starting pitcher who would be next in line? Weaver? Flaherty?

Paul Sporer: I’d think Weaver

Dilbert the Pilbert: Hello! Offered Dee Gordon for Marcel Ozuna. I need steals, but have Mallex. Worth it?

Paul Sporer: He certainly addresses your SBs, but I think I’d want more for Ozuna. Expand it to 2-for-2 where you get another upgrade?

Jaas: Would you trade E. Thames to get Arrieta if your SPs sucked and you’re in it this year? 10 team H2H, QS & OBP. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Ehh, I’d want someone better in OBP since that favors Thames. I just don’t see Arrieta getting a ton better

Luck Dragons: Springer or Donalson ROS?

Paul Sporer: Springer

Ben: You see Aaron Sanchez having a big second half? Astros start wasn’t promising.

Paul Sporer: Astros can embarrass anyone. I’m putting some confidence in him for now, but will assess again after a couple more starts

dee’s nuts: Your thoughts on Chance Adams (presumably he gets to fill in for Pineda)?

Paul Sporer: Strong fastball, has been fantastic in AA/AAA this year. I could see him being a solid mid-rotation arm (high-3.00s to low-4.00s ERA w/some Ks) out of the gate

Busted Pinata: I was surprised to see Jordan Montgomery ranked so highly do you think there is upside in him ROS or is that more due a relatively safe floor?

Paul Sporer: Both really. I think he can add Ks and get better than we’ve seen, but if not I think he’s pretty stable to be no worse than a low-4.00s guy. We obviously don’t want that, but that’s a perfectly viable floor.

TJ: I find it crazy that in real life a good major leaguer requires a lot of good prospects to acquire. However in the keeper league I’m in, an owner must give up 2-3 good major leaguers to acquire a good prospect. Do you experience this in your leagues as well? I tend to always deal my prospects away while many others in my league get prospect crazy.

Paul Sporer: Just depends on league. Prospects are often overvalued in fantasy because everyone fantasizes over the unknown

Phil: Yesterday you said Thames as a Top 12-15 1B rest of season. In May a leaguemate turned down my trade offer for him and claimed Thames would hit 50 HRs and that he would only take an “elite” guy in exchange for Thames. Do I remind him of this?

Paul Sporer: I was pretty drunk on Thames earlier this year, too. I essentially saw him going on Judge’s path and Judge going on his.

dave in slc: your a tigers guy. who gets traded? JD? Wilson? Verlander? Someone else? Nobody?

Paul Sporer: JD and Wilson, imo

Bob: For JD Martinez, do you expect similar 2H stats as 1H? Think he gets to 30 HRs?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he gets there. He will probably be on a new team, but I expect him to rake

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: With Alex Bregman being a little bitch on Twitter (berating a fan and subsequently closing his account), if the Astros had an opportunity to improve their team and otherwise evenly rated the return of Alex Bregman versus their minor leaguers, would they jettison the d-bag?

Paul Sporer: If teams got rid of every douchebag, there wouldn’t be any more Major League Baseball

Luck Dragons: who has more job security between jim johnson and justin wilson?

Paul Sporer: Both possible trade candidates which could change everything, but I’d lean Wilson barely if they stayed w/their respective teams

Chris: Every year Edwin has a monster run that makes up for his prolonged cold streaks. He already had one big run. Was that it for the year or do you think there’s another? Thinking about getting out now.

Paul Sporer: Not sure he’ll have another patented Edwin run, but I think he will be a top 10 1B rest of season

808: also…got a surplus of SS with Arcia, didi, and semien. trade $8 semien for his $7 fowler or $8 joc pederson?

Paul Sporer: That seems worthwhile. I’d go Dexter

Saul Pporer: What are your thoughts on Dansby Swanson long term? ESPN just had him as #51 in their keeper ranks.

Paul Sporer: Just don’t see where that kind of fantasy value is coming from. I think he’ll be solid, but unspectacular

Ryan: Most shocking name to be traded at the deadline will be???

Paul Sporer: Gerrit Cole

Billy: What’s up with Donaldson? Nagging injury from the early season or actual decline? You expect he’ll produce like his draft slot for the 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think it’s injury more than any major falloff

Luck Dragons: Domingo Santana ownable in shallow league over Hosmer, Cain, Cargo, Brantley types?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely. He’s 11th at OF in ESPN’s player rater

Matt: Wilson Ramos a top 10 catcher ROS?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Blockbuster: Michael Conforto, Ryan Zimmerman, and Mike Zunino for Carlos Martinez and Wil Myers?

Paul Sporer: Fair deal

Jiggles: Benintendi is sitting against a good, not great, LHP today. Is this what we can expect going forward or will Farrell just let him play?

Paul Sporer: Has he been missing other games vL?

Al: Justin Turner or Corey Seager ROS?

Paul Sporer: I really don’t see much of a split between ’em. Maybe position you need more splits em?

Fantasy Theories : My league is a points league, and if been thinking about this for awhile. If I trade the best player on my team, say Altuve, for 3 solid players doesnt that make sense as far as points go? If Altuve gets 500 points this year and I get 3 players who lets say get around the 300-400 range doesn’t that make too much sense? 1200>400. Is there a hole in my theory I am not seeing?

Paul Sporer: Well it depends who those other players are replacing. Presumably you’re improving three spots, but it’s probably closer to 1200>1000 and then in a shallow league, you could feasibly find players in season that make it even closer. That’s why you stack the top tier, bankable talent instead

808: whats your take on fowler rest of season and going forward in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Don’t see any reason why he won’t be his solid self, doing a bit of everything

Desperate!!!: I waited too long to draft an ace but currently in 1st in 12 tm h2h categories league with holds. SP rotation comprised of Paxton, Quintana, Cole, Berrios, J. Gray, Taillon, Nelson, Castillo, J. Monty, Salazar. I have a solid offense.  Do I need to trade for a top 12 SP or is my quantity over high end quality enough?  Please advise?

Paul Sporer: Think you have enough solid starters here. I mean, you’d really only be improving by getting the superaces and they’ll cost you a ton

Paul Sporer: BRB – taking Charlotte out

RRH: Thoughts on Verlander? I keep waiting for a switch to flip but it just doesn’t seem like it’s gonna happen

Paul Sporer: I hear ya , it’s definitely frustrating. He has mentioned the ball being an issue and it seems to have taken a little from his entire arsenal and it’s had a substantial impact. Still tough to really sit him, but expectations are definitely lowered

Luck Dragons: Roto or H2H with 2-week playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Always been a roto guy moreso, but have come around on H2H a bit lately

TheDuck: Happy Friday, Paul!  Can you rank these guys in a dynasty, keep-forever roto format (15 team, 5 OF, 2C): Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Andrew Benintendi, Gary Sanchez, Corey Seager

Paul Sporer: Seager, Judge, Sanchez, Belly, Beni

Timmay: Why are you higher on guys like Taillon, Shark and Nelson than Cueto and Hamels?

Paul Sporer: They’ve been appreciably better and I have concerns about the skills has shown this year. Cueto’s in the Must-Start tier w/the others so it’s really not much difference

Matt: Who do you know in the Jays org? I need them to announce their rotation for the weekend so I can set my lineup!

Paul Sporer: http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/daily_lineups.htm

RA Dickey: I’ve been sneaky good the last month. Any interest in me in shallower leagues?

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s been a lot better. I could see a team or two having room for him in shallower leagues, but he isn’t must-own

Tony: A GM in my AL-only league is nervous with all the Britton to LA Dodgers talk. Should I try to pry Britton from him or shy away from the situation altogether?

Paul Sporer: If you’re comfortable with the risk and get the appropriate discount

Chad: What the hell is wrong with Estrada?

Paul Sporer: I wish I knew. I was really buying in that he was quite viable and it’s just fallen apart

Luck Dragons: Would you rather have Altuve/Arenado or Kershaw/Scherzer?

Paul Sporer: The hitters

Jarrett: 12 team OBP: Trade Lamb for Martinez and Castellanos?

Paul Sporer: Not sure which Martinez, but ya I think so

Chris: Hey Paul.  Justin Bour.  You a believer in him?  Think he’ll be good the 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: Was a huge fan last year and the injury shut him down. I’m in

Kody: Lamb or Donaldson ROS?

Paul Sporer: JD

James: I was offered Chris Sale for my Aaron Judge today. Should I trade him? I feel I should because Judge has wRC+ of 197 and he can’t stay there for the rest of the year. (I am in the keeper’s league, I will have Judge for $5 next year in the ESPN Keepers league, while Sales will be about $20)

Paul Sporer: I’d do it

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: OBP League. Mike Zunino or Wilson Ramos?

Paul Sporer: Ramos

Brad Wesley: How much does the BoSox moves today impact Devers’ potential impact (this year only)?

Paul Sporer: A good bit, he was promoted to AAA today

Wally: Fantasy impact of Quintana going to the Cubs?  (my league has QS instead of wins)

Paul Sporer: Slight boost in value, IMO

Lukin86ln: Hey Paul. Who out of my pitchers would you recommend dropping when Melancon is activated? Options are A. Wood, Lester, Cueto, Tanaka, Nelson, Nola, Matz, A. Sanchez, Kimbrel, Herrera, J. Wilson, Ramos

Paul Sporer: Ramos

Billy: Is Duda droppable in a 12 teamer OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s pretty borderline, even in OBP

Billy: Can we get some RP rankings?

Paul Sporer: I’m considering it. Someone asked yesterday, too

Dave: During yesterday’s chat a poster shared some info on Glasnow’s delivery changes in the minors– did that change your assessment of him/impact your ranking?

Paul Sporer: It has me interested in monitoring him again. His ranking is essentially “unranked”, though, bc he’s in the minors, but I’d have him CS tier upon return while paying close attention

CW: Starting Berrios vs Houston?

Kevin: Would you start Castillo against the Nats this weekend?

Paul Sporer: Yes and no. The Berrios one is very risky, but I did just tab him in the must-start tier. If there were a spot to sit him, it’s this, but I’m rolling with him

Luck Dragons: Lamb plays LAD, SD, COL, and SF during my fantasy playoffs and probably some of yours. I’d sell ASAP if you’re planning on making it. You’re welcome.

Paul Sporer: Most play divisional down the stretch, right?

dave in slc: have no closers but need help in all pitching categories. would you trade cole for jansen or just keep cole?

Paul Sporer: Not sure he’ll help enough in ratios to not just keep Cole

Matt: Any word on Turner’s time table? Same injury as Freeman, right? Is it reasonable to think 8 weeks until we hear otherwise?

Paul Sporer: No, still nothing

Eric: Any concerns about Darvish?  His strikeout rate is much lower than usual

Paul Sporer: Nah, his swinging strike rate isn’t too far from normal. I think he’ll be ok. A couple big K games from being at his normal level

JT Bigga Figga: Do you think Jerrad Eickhoff could turn it around in the second half? Looked good in rehab starts and 1st start off the DL (albeit the Padres).

Paul Sporer: Ya I can see it. Spot-starting him for now, but can see him escalating rankings

Stove: Love the rankings, Paul. Question: I love Luis Castillo as much as the next guy, but up to Usually Start already? I know he’s succeeded in some tough environments already, but he’s only got 4 starts!

Paul Sporer: Remember we’re only assessing a month or so at a time and so he’s got a few start leash for me right now. Though I will saw his schedule right out of the gate sucks: WAS, ARI, at NYY

Desperate!!!: Ray Flowers to sell Schebler and Nelson. You agree?

Paul Sporer: Who’s he selling them to?

Eric: Is Springer having a career year, or is this a new level?

Paul Sporer: 1540 PA at essentially the same level prior to this screams career year.

Luke Singsank: I’m dying with no Trea Turner news

Paul Sporer: Right?

BK: NL only 11 team league, we start with $100 FAAB budget and I have $58 left. How much should I bid on Quintana? What about if Robertson gets traded to Washington?

Paul Sporer: Depends if you need SP or RP more, tbh. But I’d start at $45 if I’m chasing SP. If yall allow $0 bids, I’m closer to $50

Zock Jr.: Paul, this is a bit of a bear, but you are a prince among men for doing these chats. I was offered Gary Sanchez, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, and Roberto Osuna for my Jose Altuve and Luke Weaver. 20 team keep-12. I also have Daniel Murphy at 2nd. And my pitching is Cahill, Pomeranz, Peacock, Porcello, ERod, Wade Davis, Ken Giles, Devenski. It’s an 8×8 categories league with bb, k, and k/bb for pitchers. I currently have the best record in the league. I turned this offer down because Altuve is the the best player in the deal by a lot and I’m not crazy about all that pitching risk. Am I crazy for turning down all that talent, though?

Paul Sporer: Not crazy, no. Altuve is definitely the best in the deal. It really depends on how much you like Sanchez. I could see his biggest believers doing the deal. I’d have probably passed, too

Orville: I need pitching. Been offered Paxton for my Chapman. Do I hit the accept button?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Eric: Surprised that you only have Godley at #40 on your updated list.  Seems like he has very high upside given his SwStr% and GB%

Paul Sporer: Don’t get too hung up on the #. The tier is what matters. The guys in US tier above him aren’t automatically a ton better in my eyes

Oddball Herrera: In a recent sleeper & bust episode Merrified’s success was dismissed as “all batted ball driven”.  He doesn’t have an insane BABIP or HR/FB, he’s an all fields guy so he’s not pull happy, he has good contact (quantity & quality).  I’m curious – what about his batted ball profile is problematic?

Paul Sporer: His hot streak was. I believe the assessment was that he’s pretty much empty AVG with some SBs

Kody: It’s so frustrating when you make an offer that’s over the top and and owner won’t even consider it

Paul Sporer: We all value players differently. What you consider over the top is not enough in their eyes

Aledmys Diaz: Can he get back to his old form? How concerned are you?

Paul Sporer: He came out of nowhere at age-25 so I certainly have some concern. I don’t rule out a rebound, but I’m not betting on it, either

Vince Velasquez: What’s his future outlook?

Paul Sporer: I do worry he’ll matriculate over to the bullpen, but I hope they put him in an Andrew Miller-type role where he’s called on for multi-inning outings with regularity

Bob : Thoughts on JD Martinez ROS?

Paul Sporer: Elite bat, probably on a new team

Ziggy: Is Samardjiza a good buy for a dynasty team at the tail end of a rebuild looking to compete starting next season?

Paul Sporer: Sure. I think he’s bankable for this year and next

Dylan: Is Chance Adams an add in all formats?

Paul Sporer: Nah

All Star Avi: I’m freaking out. I traded Nolan Arenado (in a keeper league) at good value for James Paxton, Marcus Stroman…and Jimmy Nelson. Can I believe in Jim Nelson?

Paul Sporer: I’m digging what he’s doing right now

rustydude: Nova has dropped precipitously in the rankings since his early season magic. Are there specific environments/matchups that I should look to have him active?

Paul Sporer: I just leave him in for the ratios, but he’s dropped as others have emerged ahead of him. I can’t stress enough – yet again – how little the number means and how the tier is the more important aspect

RRH: Thanks for the rankings! Clevinger feels low given how consistent he’s been this year. Aside from his Coor start, he has a 2.41 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with solid strikeout numbers. He hasn’t gone more than 6 IP since May but seems like he’s still a Usually Start

Paul Sporer: Being a 5-and-dive breeds volatility and since he was a waiver pickup, I can see him on a lot teams with plenty of other options making him more SS for me

Cut one!: CarGo, K Seager, Castellanos, Semien, 11 tm roto, thank you!

Paul Sporer: Cargo, I just worry he’s got a nagging injury (or two)

dave in slc: NL only you like Altherr $1 or alex wood $2 ?

Paul Sporer: Wood

Thanks for the chat!: Is Carter Capps worth holding? Getting late into the season to be a contributor for this year…

Paul Sporer: Maybe NL Only

Dave: What level offensive player would ask for Paxton?

Paul Sporer: Pretty high

Raj: Is Mallex more Billy Hamilton or more Ben Revere? Better comp?

Paul Sporer: What’s the difference? Oh is it that Revere actually hit for avg in his peak? More Revere rn

Tommy B: Trade my Blackmon for Darvish and Ozuna?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d do that

Danny: do you think Marte (Starling) performs when he returns? I picked him up after trading Bellinger for Greinke.

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes

seth: you starting Morton (v MIN) and Paxton (@ CWS) tonight?

Paul Sporer: I’m never sitting Paxton. And I’d probably start Morton in non 10-teamers

Cheeser: Cahill 37th huh?

Paul Sporer: 30% K, 60% GB

Mike: Is manaea’s BB rate going to improve? I want to start him but his K/BB being below my 3.1 team average is a turnoff.

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he can improve it, but it’s not an impediment to me starting him at all

Bart: I’m desperate for SP’s. Would you pick up Lugo over Bailey, Chatwood or Anibal Sanchez off the WW in a 14 team lg?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitcher-rankings-update-july…

PepeSilvia: J Wilson owner worried about him getting traded into a setup role. Waiver wire is bare for saves, is my best bet stashing Brach and praying for a Britton trade?

Paul Sporer: Ya, that’s not a bad idea in a desperate situation

Chris: On Springer, is what he doing this season sustainable? See any red flags that indicate a good sell-high? (H2H pts league so steals dont matter as much to me)

Paul Sporer: 31% HR/FB is pretty bananas, but he’s also crushing the ball so it’s not impossible to maintain this year

Zimmerboy: Arenado or Stanton ROS?

Paul Sporer: Arenado

Johnny Cueto: What’s wrong with me? I got my quick pitch and my hip shimmy is on point, why ain’t any of it working?

Paul Sporer: It’s mostly HRs and sequencing right now. I don’t think he’s too far off from figuring it out

Matt: I’m currently in the middle of all the hitting categories in my roto league. Should I try targeting guys who are great in one category in my pickups and trades, or guys who are merely good in multiple categories? (I mean, I

Paul Sporer: Figure out where you can make the biggest, quickest gains. How many SBs get you X points? How many RBIs? etc… then attack the categories that offer the most upside

Dan: Scherzer for Harper 11 team. I am low in hitting and have Greinke, Archer, Nelson, Porcello, Santana, & Queto

Paul Sporer: Yep that works

Robby: Vargas or Carrasco ROS?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitcher-rankings-update-july…

Schilling and Pence: I just traded Mark Reynolds for Gerit Cole.  How’d I do?

Paul Sporer: I dig it

Andrew: Should I start Gio at Cincinnati tonight? And are you at all worried that his FIP is way higher than his ERA, even though the K/9 look steady?

Paul Sporer: I’d start him

Saves are free: Do you think Pomeranz can improve in the future or do you think this year is more is norm?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s about where he belongs. A mid-3.00s guy with great Ks

Choo Choo: How hard is it going to be for you to root for the Tigers when JD gets traded?

Paul Sporer: Not hard at all. That’s my team. I’ll be hoping for JD to succeed elsewhere, though

Prospect Hunter: Does Hader get the chance to start for the BrewCrew with Guerra hitting the DL or do we have to wait until next year?

Paul Sporer: Guerra is tracking to return early next week

Luck Dragons: Bigger value boost — Rizzo getting 2B or Freeman getting 3B?

Paul Sporer: Rizzo for sure

Guest: You should take one more look at Luke Voit.

Paul Sporer: *shrug*

Robert: How worried should we be that Goldy hasn’t stolen a base in 5 weeks?

Paul Sporer: That is a bit concerning. SBs are an at-will thing, so they can come in clusters, but that kind of lull has me wondering if he has a small injury he doesn’t want to exacerbate by running. Or maybe the opps haven’t been there. He is raking during that time.

John: Need saves pretty bad. Giving Stanton to get Benintendi and Rivero seems like a pretty good deal right?

Paul Sporer: Ya I like that

curious: re:beneitendi: yes he has been sitting against a lot of lefties

Paul Sporer: Then I can see it continuing, unfortunately

Earl: Joe Panik HR tonight?

Paul Sporer: At least one. Could chase down Scooter Gennett

Ludas, Dudas: Moustakas just hit the waiver wire in my league.  am i dropping Bregman for him?  in win now mode.

Paul Sporer: Absolutely

Luck Dragons: Why doesn’t Beltre get any respect?

Paul Sporer: Whattya mean?

ThickTanPretzel: Looks like you’re loving L Castillo, but do you dock a guy like that in QS leagues? Youth + wildness maybe makes it hard for him to get through six. Wondering whether to drop Leake for him. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Not sure I dock him there bc I wasn’t expecting a ton of wins anyway so moving from W to QS doesn’t greatly change my outlook

Sven Ottke: Thoughts on David Dahl returning soon?

Paul Sporer: Supposed to be, yeah

The Kyd: Avila back on the wire. Is it time to dump Lucroy for Avila? I’ve been inclined to go down with the ship, but my mind can change.

Paul Sporer: Avila looks super healthy and he’s savaging righties

JV: Your boy Verlander took a tumble out of the MS. Think if you told him that, he’d hurt you?

Paul Sporer: yes, he’d physically hurt me because of my fantasy rankings
😐

Pb&Js: Who is likely to be Detroit’s closer if Justin Wilson goes?

Paul Sporer: Greene is my top choice

Brian: traded mallex smith arrieta oh, for his Logan Morrison, Ray, Paxton …who won that deal

Paul Sporer: I prefer your side in a vacuum

Luck Dragons: Rather take off Fridays or Mondays?

Paul Sporer: Mondays

Matt: What are your thoughts on Cespedes ROS? I’m trying to get Stanton as a rental, but might have to settle for him as a consolation

Paul Sporer: He’s in the range of his outcomes, just toward the lower end. I think he’ll be himself

Elliott: Hey Paul Happy Friday, for realz baseball is back! Which side would you rather build upon in a roto keep forever league: (a) Betts and Sale or (b) T. Turner and Scherzer

Paul Sporer: So excited to watch games tonight!! With the uncertainty around Turner, I’d going side A

Matt: Just traded Wood/Manaea for Lil Seager and B. Peacock…. bad decision/good decision??

Paul Sporer: Seems viable in a vacuum. Really difficult to assess fully with zero context

Matt: You down with OBP? Yea you know me! Who down wit OBP? His name’s Joey (Votto)!

Paul Sporer: lol

James: Will Quintana’s fantasy number improve after trade to the Cubs?

Paul Sporer: He’s been pitching brilliantly of late, so I’m not sure it’ll change much

Luck Dragons: Cargo must-own in an 8-teamer?

Paul Sporer: No chance

Luck Dragons: Re: Lamb — lefty heavy rotations

Paul Sporer: Ah, that’s what I thought when I saw LAD, but then when you said the rest of the division I wasn’t sure

Yarley: Ryon Healey gonna remain 10-team mixed CI-relevant ROS?

Paul Sporer: CI is super deep so he has a thin margin with any sort of giveback

StewZilla: Need to drop 1 to make room for Trout?  C. Frazier, Avisail, G. Polanco, Bour, LoMo.  Who gets the ax?

Paul Sporer: Frazier

Paul Sporer: Damn, I’m really trying not to make the prospect mistake of saying playing time re: Frazier bc he seems left out once they’re healthy, but will they stay healthy with so many mid-30s guys? If you want to go Avisail, I don’t hate it

Cw : Just floated idea of trading for JD (Donaldson), owner countered saying any deal would have to involve manny. I know 2ndary stats pointing to a big rebound for manny- should I move him? And if so how much more should I ask for? Keep forever league 10 teamer

Paul Sporer: Don’t see the point in moving Manny for JD

Lee: Who’s the first to die this season in game of thrones?

Paul Sporer: Tim

Paul Sporer: I don’t watch GOT

Carter: Paul, how do view Scooter Gennett going forward. If you look at his numbers, he has been absolutely absurd. 15 hrs in 209 at bats. 147oPS+ Above average exit velocity and a great home ballpark. Name a couple 2nd baseman you value him around.  He has somehow been better offensively than Daniel Murphy this season.

Paul Sporer: He is absolutely destroying righties. I’d take him over Pedroia, Merrifield, Drury — top 13-15 2B

Carter: Tim Tebow, add in all formats? Jokes aside, do you think the odds Tebow gets called up as a publicity stunt is about 50%? SSS but he is absolutely mashing since getting called up .327 avg, .972 ops. 11 game hitting streak while cutting his K rate.

Paul Sporer: It’d be so embarrassing for the Mets to do it…. so they probably will

Dungeon Master: Ryan Zimmerman still gonna be ok 1B for a contender ROS? He’s way back down to earth.

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m not moving off him yet

Woodrow the Impaler: Has Homer Bailey turned a corner?

Paul Sporer: I was super-encouraged by at COL, at ARI. Velo up, SwStr% is there. I’m keeping a close eye on him for sure. Scooped him in some deeper mixers

White Goodman: Altuve for McCullers, Matz, Schoop?

Paul Sporer: Fair enough. Prefer Altuve, epsec. if it’s shallower, but it’s fair

Dave: Dealt severino for price and oh (keeper league).  Severino has keeper value but i’m going for it this year.  How’d I do

Paul Sporer: I totally get it. I’m just worried about Oh and I think you need those saves to really win the deal. I’m hyped on Sevvy. That said, I do think Price will be strong rest of the way so it’s probably even up at worst

TJ: What album or music have you been bumpin lately?

Paul Sporer: Been listening to the Post Malone album a bit.

Carter: Paul, I see you are making a joke about my Scooter Gennett question…but in the era of swing changes and small guys putting up huge numbers, it is not something to scoff at. He has been BETTER than Daniel Murphy this season in over 200 at bats.

Paul Sporer: ?

Ivan: Just traded faria for giles. Needed saves badly. Good move?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think so

Mystery Date: Paul, you’re such a doll for doing this marathon chat with us. We all missed baseball so much. We should call you Paul the Doll. Or Paul the Baseball Doll.

Paul Sporer: lol

Ron Gant: G Polanco or J Brantley jr?

Paul Sporer: Gah, I wish I knew the status of Polanco’s shoulder. I’d take him easily. I just like him so much, but that damn shoulder

Paul Sporer: F it, gimme Polly anyway

Michelle: Thanks for the marathon chat! Will you and Jason be doing a podcast this weekend?

Paul Sporer: No prob! We will

Michelle: Hold Story in 10 team h2h?

Paul Sporer: As long as you can, but I understand moving on in 10-teamers

Jared : You think dejong can sustain any level of what he’s currently doing for cards?

Paul Sporer: 3% BB, 29% K, .378 BABIP says he’s riding hot. Then again, Cardinals Devil Magic…..

Josiah: Start Montgomery tonight?

Paul Sporer: I am, yes

Desperate!!: I meant Ray Flowers SAYS to sell Nelson and Schebler.  Do you agree?

Paul Sporer: Ah. I mean if you can get appropriate value. It’s easy to say sell on guys, it’s quite another to actually cash in

Quincy: Need saves and have Kela on the DL but I have to open a roster spot to stream a catcher.  Will I regret dropping Bush or should I keep TEX on lock?

Paul Sporer: Keep TEX on lock since you need SVs

Jeff: How are you ranking these SP stashes that should all be back in about a month? Gsellman, Desclafani, and Skaggs.

Paul Sporer: Skaggs, Disco, Gsellman

BK: wow this chat’s still going on? awesome, Paul!

Paul Sporer: Winding down, my stomach is grumbling for food!

BK: What’s the best way to improve my average in a deep NL only league? Trade for one really high average player or trade for several decent upgrades?

Paul Sporer: If you can make multiple upgrades, that’d be great, but getting a stud if probably the most viable way. Get DJ LeMahieu

Bud: I miss baseball so want to seem my guys go tonight, but in a deep NL only — have Montgomery @ Baltimore and Pivetta @ MLW tonight.  Desperately chasing K’s and W’s but protecting ERA and Whip lead.  Who is more likely to get lit up?

Paul Sporer: Pivetta more likely, both are tough of course

tex: I have both Berrios and Morton. Start both tonight?

Paul Sporer: Maybe sit Morton in super shallow, but otherwise yes

Paul Sporer: I’m rolling the dice on Berrios and J.Montgomery tonight. Risky for sure, but I dig both a good bit

Matt: I need 1 more OF in 12tm H2H?  Could I get someone elite for paxton?

Paul Sporer: I’d think so, yes.

Steve: In general, do you worry about two of your SP  facing off?  Would you be more wary in an important division matchup?

Paul Sporer: Nah, if I’d start them outside of that, it’s not a deciding factor

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, tacos are calling my name. I gotta roll. Hit me up on Twitter @sporer, Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at twitch.tv/psporer24 where I stream video gms and talk baseball. I’ll be streaming tomorrow for sure and *maybe* tonight (but I’ll probably just hunker down with TV, iPad, and PS4 all on baseball gms and cure my withdrawals w/a bender!)

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for hanging out so long!