Paul Sporer Baseball Chat January 11th, 2019

Paul Sporer: It’s game time! I’m excited to be back with my weekly chats, let’s roll!

Vern Rapp: I can keep one of McCutchen,H Bader or F Reyes in dynasty.  OBP league. Who do you like?

Paul Sporer: I gotta go Cutch. I love Bader’s real life talent (in other words, his defense), but the bat just isn’t there yet… particularly vR.

Jay: In your pod with Justin and Jeff you guys mentioned about not punting catcher to save money elsewhere in drafts. I went $1 on Wellington Castillo and then rode Yan Gomes out the rest of the year in ’18. I’m not spending on Contreras or Realmuto but do you have some second-tier guys in mind worth paying more than $1-$5 for in a 1-catcher, 12 team league?

Paul Sporer: We were talking more about 2 C bc Justin and I used to go w/2 $1 scrubs, but now we drop a $6-10 combined usually. But for a 1 C semi-punt, I like going back to the well with Beef, Alfaro, Jansen, Barnhart, and my boy Austin Barnes (loved him last year but he flopped, now he has the job)

anon: What do you find to be the most enjoyable way to play OOTP Perfect Team (without buying additional points)? Opening packs is fun but Auction House is flooded with talent now that we’re a few seasons in.

Paul Sporer: Team No Money is super fun. I made Wildcard w/my TNM in Bronze league, but they’ve cratered in Silver so I’m rebuilding a defense and contact club. With TNM clubs, I usually like to focus on one aspect with hitters (power at the expense of everything else, contact & speed, defense, etc…) and then I make sure to adjust my team Strategies accordingly

Scott: Keep Jimmy Nelson for $3 or Jose Berrios for $16?

Paul Sporer: League context?

Paul Spider: Hi Paul

Paul Sporer: Hola

TD: In a keeper league the salaries are structured so that I can keep Machado or both Marte and Mazara.  Any argument to keep Marte and Mazara?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I think you could. Starling Marte essentially matches Machado’s value and you still get to keep Mazara. Plus the scarcity of SBs make Marte intriguing. I think I’d keep the duo.

Ham Porter: Do you prefer Roto leagues or Points Leagues? I prefer points leagues because I feel there are more inefficiencies to expose. I feel like most of you pros prefer roto because it is more traditional. Am I wrong?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know that it is bc roto is traditional, but I do prefer it bc I’m not as into h2h, but I’ve come around on h2h pts and usually have a couple such lgs in my arsenal lately

Paul Sporer: RIP Austin Barnes. Just saw the Dodgers traded for Russell Martin.

Tommy: Khris Davis, Eugenio Suarez, AJ Pollock, Justin Turner, Matt Chapman, Daniel Murphy.   I can only keep 1, standard 5×5.   Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Damn that’s tough. I’m leaning Davis. If you’re throwing 3 3B back, you can get one of them presumably so take the game-changing pop

Craig: If i’m Looking to compete this year, should my last keeper being someone with a higher floor like a $10 David Peralta or high ceiling like a $1 Alex Reyes? For future years, Reyes would be a more appealing keeper.

Paul Sporer: I’ll go with Peralta, Reyes is too much of an unknown and since you’re going for this year, Peralta has a muuuuuuch higher floor

OddBall Herrera: Everyone seems super bullish on Haniger (ESPN has him as a top 50 player!).  Am I wrong to snort derisively at this because 10 of his 26 homers came in a ridiculous stretch in April?  He was totally mediocre from that point out

Paul Sporer: I kinda get this because we see a big isolated sample and we tend to dismiss it, but I’m not so sure we should if the skills are being displayed. The fact is that months are arbitrary and the vast majority of players go through ebbs and flows.

As far as not wanting Haniger 50th, I’m OK with that, but I will point out that he had the amazing April, a dreadful May that essentially canceled it out, and then a very solid .293/.372/.485 line the rest of the way w/a 24 HR, 83 RBI, 101 R, 8 SB pace. Even if you include the May, it was an .815 OPS, which would essentially make him Cody Bellinger w/more AVG and less speed. Not exactly mediocre.

Franco: Which STL SP do you like best for this year outside their top 5?  Gant, Hudson, Gomber, Poncedeleon

Paul Sporer: I have a hard time really separating them, but I’d lean Gomber if he got a shot

Don: Any thoughts on what we could see from Pablo Lopez this year if he gets a full season in the Marlins rotation?

Paul Sporer: He and a few others in that Marlins rotation are pretty interesting until you realize how devastating the rest of the division is which takes them down a bit for me. Lopez has some nice swing-and-miss ability and that really nice changeup (which always intrigues me w/a young arm)

TD: For dynasty leagues – how many seasons in advance would you look when evaluating player values?

Paul Sporer: I don’t go much than +1-2. I’m always trying to win if for no other reason than you just don’t know how long a league will last!

Craig: My league is 13 teams, 12 keepers per team.

Paul Sporer: ^^ in reference to the Peralta v. Reyes question… still preferring Peralta!

Bob Villar: Franmil Reyes or Austin Meadows in an OBP Keeper League?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Meadows

Russell : In your experience if you are in a draft where SPs start to go too early, should you follow the trend or should ignore it and get the best players and trade for the SPs later?

Paul Sporer: I know it’s not the best answer, but it depends. If I’m only left with someone I don’t really like during this run, I’ll pass and figure it out down the line, but if I’m only jumping someone I’m already interested in a round or two bc the price has risen on that asset, I’ll take the plunge

Paul Sporer: The rarity of premium SPs seems to grow year over year. We only had 13 200-inning arms last year!

Bob Villar: Talk to me about Ozzie Albies, people are down on him this year.

Paul Sporer: Sorry router decided to reset/update

Paul Sporer: RE: Albies, folks seem down on him bc he was quite bland in his slash after April at .254/.296/.409 but he still had 15 HR/11 SB (full season pace of 19/14 — only 18 players exceeded both thersholds in ’18). I’m still bought him, his pwr/spd give him some slash line leeway, but we could also see some growth, particularly w/his BB%

King Donko of Punchstania: Pleased to see Russ Martin exit TOR. What’s your updated outlook for Jansen?

Paul Sporer: Pro-Jansen, but now his price will rise so I’m eager to see where it will go. He could put up his Triple-A line (.275 AVG, 12 HR, 5 SB) in a full season MLB campaign

Milton : Man Paul is it good to have you back! I’m already sweating my last 2 keeper in a keep 6 OBP league. I need 2 of these 4: Edwin Diaz, Eugenio Suarez, Javier Baez and JT Realmuto. Who should I keep? And I should give Carlos Correa another year, right?

Paul Sporer: Glad to be back! With fantasy football done, it’s officially time for fantasy baseball (though we never stop the fantasy baseball here!) — As for your keeper, I’d go w/Suarez and Baez.

I do have some reservations about Baez as a 2nd round pick, but as a standard keeper w/out specific round or dollar costs, you gotta hang onto him. I am still on board with Correa overall, but don’t prefer him to the other options

Bill’s Brother Josh: Have you seen my brother’s show? Also do you think we’re nearing a point where RPs give more value and/or predictability to starters?

Paul Sporer: What show? They don’t necessarily give more value, but we are at a point where non closer stud RPs are growing more and more valuable and taking them over guys like Mike Leake or Tanner Roark

King Donko of Punchstania: Do you have any insight/opinion on using Quality Appearance as a replacement for QS?

Paul Sporer: What’s a quality appearance?

Chris: Hey Paul – Head to head pts league where you can keep players for up to 4 more years.  I need to decide my last two keepers from the following options: Taillon in Rnd 11, Bichette in rnd 18, Urias in rnd 20, Whitley in Rnd 22, and M Brantley in Rnd 23.  All would be first year keepers.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I gotta go with Taillon and Brantley. The prospects are fair costs, but I think Taillon has a good shot at taking an ace jump this year and Brantley’s cost is just too good to pass up

Confirmation Baez: Do you take the over or under on 25 HR for Voit in 2019?

Paul Sporer: Fantastic handle… I’ll go under on Voit. More like 18-21.

TD: Guy in my dynasty league traded Aaron Nola for Brendon Rodgers, Nick Senzel, a 2020 1st round pick and 2021 2nd round pick.  Who wins?

Paul Sporer: It’s not always about a win/loss, it’s about whether the trade is fair and passes the smell test… and it does. An ace arm for two prospects and two picks works. Assuming the person who traded Nola is looking forward a bit more whereas the person who acquired him is targeting the short term to contend.

kala: In an AL-only 2 catcher league, would you target Astudillo even if he is not guaranteed a starting role? Hoping it’ll bring down his auction price

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m preferring him more in AL Only now w/his likely ticket to Triple-A to start being punch and I’ll reserve him for a bit in hopes that he’s up within a few weeks and gives me some nice late round AVG

OddBall Herrera: Top minor leaguer to stash has to be Hiura, right?  No reason to call up Guerrero/Eloy right away…Senzel super blocked and could do with a few weeks of PAs without getting hurt…Tucker seems blocked (again).  Hiura on the other hand is coming off of AFL MVP, NL Central will be tight, and he only has to be better than one Cornelius Spangenberger

Paul Sporer: No, it’s Guerrero by a landslide. And then Eloy behind him. Don’t get hung up on Senzel being blocked, teams make room when the talent is ready (remember how “blocked” Cody Bellinger was?). Bummed about Tucker seemingly getting blocked off again, but I reiterate – trust the talent. I like Hiura, was impressed by the handle of PAs I saw at AFL, and even drafted him in the 50-round draft & hold that took place at AFL, but he has just 73 games at Double-A so I think he needs a bit more seasoning.

TD: Is there a good rule of thumb for valuing prospects compared to MLB players in a dynasty league?  How do you compare say a top 50 prospect vs. a 2nd round draft pick vs. a good 30-year old MLB player?

Paul Sporer: I think it primarily depends on your team construct. Some folks go into a dynasty league building for the future immediately and the late-20s, early-30s players drop and become major values so decide what you want your team to be and go from there

Glooboo: What should we expect from Bo Bichette this year from a fantasy persepective?

Paul Sporer: He’s a great prospect, but not on Vlad’s level so I would temper expectations for a 21-year old who hasn’t hit Triple-A yet. I think we could get a month or so late in season. I don’t know how legit the 32 SBs from last year were so I’m reluctant to tab him as a true speed option, but he seems like a do-a-bit-of-everything in the counting categories with the chance to deliver big AVG. I’d target 2020 more, though.

Dizzy Trout: In an AL-only $250 keeper, Would you keep a $12 Voit, assuming the yanks don’t acquire anyone? That #1 barrrel% makes it tempting.

Paul Sporer: Ya $12 is fine in AL. Like I said earlier, I’m thinking 18-21 HR. Also a .265ish AVG and solid R/RBI as part of that good lineup

Nick: When would you be comfortable taking Victor Robles in a 12 team points league?

Paul Sporer: His primary asset – the SBs – aren’t as valuable in pts league so I’m not going any earlier than a double-digit round… ideally 12th-13th area

Dizzy Trout: Is Texas still that bad a pitching environment for Shelby? I mean I remembered hearing Arlington nowadays is much closer to neutral but don’t know if my info is outdated

Paul Sporer: The park isn’t as much of a launching pad as it used to be thanks to an architectural change that cutoff a jetstream, but it’s still a plus environment for hitters, likely due to the remarkably warm weather. I’m a Shelby Miller fan in general, but I still try to avoid Texas where I can

LJ : Who, if any guy, has the 2019 Buehler potential?

Couple guys I like for this are Puk + Honeywell.

Paul Sporer: I love both of those arms in general, but more for 2020 as this is their return year from TJ so I’d be looking more at Jesus Luzardo, Forest Whitley, and Mitch Keller

Scott TINSTAAPP: yea boi we chatting in 2019!!!

Paul Sporer: Heck yes we are!!!

Brett: Keeper league who would you rather have D Jansen or L Urias?  Catcher spot is thin.

Paul Sporer: Catcher is thin, but i’m a big Urias stan so I’m leaning toward him

AJ: Who would you rather have in a keeper, Taillon or Matt Olson?

Paul Sporer: Damn, another one where I like both players, but I’m going Taillon pretty easily as I think he’s got an ace season in him

A live Astudillo Audience: A team in my league is open to trading a $15 Gary Sanchez. Is it worth taking on an undroppable $10 Mullins and $15 Sanchez for my $7 Welington Castillo?

Paul Sporer: Hmmm is it an AL-Only? That’d make it somewhat intriguing with Mullins’ speed, but it’s a pass in any mixed league

The old Professor: Daniel Murphy , Cano or Dozier in a keep 7 h2h points league?

Paul Sporer: Murph in Cors

Paul Sporer: Coors even

Michael: Hey Paul, been waiting for people to talk about JBJ’s offensive improvement, so it was nice to see your shoutout/Petriello’s piece the other day. What would you give as an upside projection if everything clicks?

Paul Sporer: Really impressed with what he did in the 2H and I know some folks don’t give much credence to working with someone or whatever, but I’m super encouraged by him working with JD Martinez. I think we could see a supercharged 2016 on the perfect scenario upside: .280/25/90/90/15 (he’s always been a great base stealer rate-wise, but Boston doesn’t seem to push or allow volume or he could legitimately push mid-20s IMO)

Confirmation Baez: What do you think of the fact that Miguel Cabrera led the majors in percentage of balls hit over 95 mph and 2nd in overall exit velocity in 2018? I know he had an awful grounder rate, but do you like his chances of a rebound?

Paul Sporer: Miggy is still a very good hitter, it allll comes down to health. It’s not at all unreasonable to be leery of his health profile age-36, but that risk is built into his price (ADP 160ish) so I’m still willing to take a shot, especially in a weak 1B pool

Highway61: Any idea when Fangraphs The Game winners from 2018 will receive their add-free membership? Thanks

Paul Sporer: Hit me up on Twitter (@sporer) and I’ll run it up the flagpole

Joe: $26 ok to Keep Baez in a 12 tm NL only 5×5?  How about $35 Soto?

Paul Sporer: Yes on Baez for sure, but that’s a bit costly on Soto. I’d rather throw him back and then if you REALLY want him at that price, pay it auction (though I feel he’ll come at least a few bucks cheaper… unless inflation is crazy in your lg)

Scott TINSTAAPP: I’m entering the NFBC main event for the first time this year, any experiences you care to share that would be helpful for a newbie?

Paul Sporer: Do your research. Be ready to get sniped repeatedly and move to plans B, C, and D. Don’t be afraid to “reach” for your guy (if you’re comfortable paying the price, it’s not really a reach, but I use that word meaning paying above ADP), and don’t punt anything bc then you can’t compete in the overall

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, a little bit of a shorty today for our first chat of 2019, but I’ll be back next week! We’ll DEFINITELY get some marathon chats going in February/March in preparation for draft season for stay tuned!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!