Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – Friday the 13th, 2018

Paul Sporer: Helllooooo everybody! Let’s talk some baseball this Friday the 13th!

Sporer Spice: You throwing Hamels out there tonight?

Paul Sporer: Sure, let’s do it

Knuckle Churve: Hey Paulie, baby! Looking more grim by each report that Pedroia will  return this year. Who do you think the Saux pursue to fill 2B?

Paul Sporer: Not sure if they hit the trade market, might just ride out Nunez

Sleeper Star: Pick One, rest of the season: Nathan Eovaldi – or – Shane Bieber? (Weekly, Head-to-Head: Strikeouts, Wins, ERA/WHIP)

Paul Sporer: That’s tough, gonna lean Biebs bc of Eovaldi’s inability to ever stay healthy

Jason: Thoughts on Conforto for the rest of this year and the future?  What should I do with him in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Was pretty bearish on him this year, but still think he’s a bright spot long-term

Pine Needles: Is Lindor the second-best fantasy SS?

Paul Sporer: Perhaps even the best

Nick: As a Joey Bats owner enjoying this ride, should I be rooting for him to get traded or not? On one hand, if he goes to a contender, maybe runs and RBIs galore. On the other hand, maybe he becomes a bench guy.

Paul Sporer: Almost certainly a bench guy elsewhere, better to ride it out in NYM

JJ: Is Kipnis sort of back? I have Souza and Ohtani at the bottom of my roster and am always looking to keep things fresh.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, I just never really trust Kip

Sporer Spice: You think Robbie Ray has it in him to have a strong second half?

Paul Sporer: Sure, but not to last year’s level IMO. That was the peak with THESE skills so without some changes, he’s a solid-but-not-elite arm

Me: Starting Kingham tonight?

Paul Sporer: Yessir

Paul Sporer: (or ma’am)

Darryl: 14-teamer, 5×5 H2H. In an average week, do you regard Gibson as a streamer or someone to hold?

Paul Sporer: Hold for sure. All the memes on the pod about Gibson aside, he’s a must hold in many leagues even if you’re only streaming him in 10-teamers between your roster and reserve

Sad: thoughts on thames ROS in a 12 tm OBP league? Would be replacing gallo or mccutchen in the lineup

Paul Sporer: I dig him, espec. in OBP. I prefer him to both, particularly Gallo

Bill: Haniger has fallen off a bit after a very hot start. Is this the true Haniger or is he somewhere in between?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s a solid 115-130 wRC+ player

Joe: AL only, Felix Pena worth an add? BB history is scary.

Paul Sporer: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pera-rankings-with-starting-pitcher-…

Bill: Andrew Heaney or Jameson Taillon?

Paul Sporer: They’re so close https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/july-starting-pitcher-rankings/ — leaning Taillon

Pine Needles: Where does Bogaerts fit among the top SS? Top 5?

Paul Sporer: Big fan, but can’t get him to top5 right now. Top 10, though.

Pat: are you holding out any hope of Samardjiza delivering value this year?

Paul Sporer: The worrisome thing is the walk rate being through the roof. I’m kinda scrapping my expectations for him this year

tacopocket: how am I still holding on to Calhoun??  if you’re in the NY area, can you swing by and slap me across the face?

Paul Sporer: Hey, he’s showing a little life lately so maaaayybbbeee

Luke: Start Bieber tonight vs Yankees?

Scott TINSTAAPP: Paul!  Talk me out of starting Shane Bieber tonight against NYY in my 16 team 6×6 that has K/BB and an innings cap.  Too risky against the Yanks?  I need K/BB and his ratio is so dope I’m really tempted!

Paul Sporer: I think I’m leaning no on both cases, the widespread and also Scott’s individual case

Bill: How many HRs does Bregman finish with this season? 30 is a real possibility right?

Paul Sporer: Definitely plausible

Ted: Who would you rather buy if you’re pushing in the second half, Strasburg or Folty? Are you concerned by either player’s injury this year?

Paul Sporer: I’d go for Strasburg. Definitely worried about health on both, but Stras’s upside is so high

Mortimer Smith: Start Grandal or Sal Perez tonight?

Paul Sporer: Grandal

Asking for a friend: Why isn’t Ohtani the batter ranked on THE BOARD? His hitter profile is a 70 overall grade and would be tops.  Is that to say he really is the #1 hitting prospect if hits full time ROS?

Paul Sporer: Is he still a rookie?

Paul Sporer: 154 PA

yojiveself: Ok to drop Giles?  seems unlikely he regains the role

Paul Sporer: Yes, that’s fine

Jordan: How do you like Jimmy Nelson coming back from a shoulder injury? Been stashing him all year in a keeper league, trade fodder?

Paul Sporer: I have very low expectations for this season bc of the injury

Bill: Why isn’t Castellanos talked about more as a trade target? Rebuilding team in Detroit. Could probably get a good return and beef up their farm system right?

Paul Sporer: I think bc they’re likely to keep him

Ed: Kevin Pillar has gone from having hot streaks to hot individual games. Okay to drop in a 16-team league?

Paul Sporer: More than OK with that, yes

Moonlight Graham: Nimmo for Porcello?  Who wins (assuming each team addressed its needs).  Just in terms of value.

Paul Sporer: It’s a fair deal, no decisive winner when it matches needs

Noel: My NL-only keep9 league has gone to war over acquiring FAAB for the possibility of Machado coming over. I have a tenuous lead on first place and have used my FAAB all year, while many have hoarded. I just sold $19 of my remaining $61 for Wilmer Flores to someone to give them the FAAB lead, then immediately went and used the last of it plus Broxton to get Kingham and Pederson and give a different guy the lead. I don’t really have a question, other than that this was fun as hell and I highly recommend it to any NL-only owners who aren’t in position for a splashy move on waivers and need to build depth.

Paul Sporer: That is pretty fun maneuvering. Now let’s laugh when he stays in the AL

Oddball Herrera: Excited/encouraged by Odor’s past month, or is this a cosmic trick to get us to buy back in?

Paul Sporer: It’s a glimmer of hope. I’m not invested this year, but he’s done enough in his career to be encouraged

JD Martin: is it weird to prefer Lindor over Correa in an OPS dynasty?  I don’t see any major differentiator apart from Lindor’s speed

Paul Sporer: Not at all. I can’t see any reason to definitely say one is over the other so it’s preference

Pine Needles: Buy high on Matt Carpenter?

Paul Sporer: Discussed on the pod coming out today and yes, I’m open to that. He looks healthy and he’s hitting brilliantly. I was wrong on him this year. I was just v worried about the shoulder

Bill: Trevor Cahill is still an interesting pickup right?

Paul Sporer: For sure, I love healthy Cahill

tacopocket: no chance you start shark tomorrow, right?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, probably not. I was pretty pessimistic on him in the earlier Q about him

Pauly: Are we seeing the beginning of Dozier’s insane second half hot streak?

Paul Sporer: :fingers crossed:

Pauly: Muncy has to slow down, right? The lack of 2Bs is concerning.

Paul Sporer: Well for sure, but I still think he’ll be good in the 2H

John: Bieber, Rodon, or Cahill ros al only roto

Paul Sporer: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/july-starting-pitcher-rankings/

Paul Sporer: Biebs, Cahill, Rodon… forgot Cahill prob isn’t ranked in those bc of his injury

Pine Needles: Juan Soto or Charlie Blackmon ROS?

Paul Sporer: Blackmon

Jeff: Thoughts on Dereck Rodriguez in a 20 team keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Big fan, he’s got the arsenal to be really successful. I wanna see him pare it down to his best pitches and hopefully take off

Branch: Why can’t I Quitana?

Paul Sporer: Because you know he’s pretty good

5.5Hole: Do you have concerns about McCullers’ workload? Is he due for a “DL” stint?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think we even need to put quotes around it, he gets hurt all the time

Ks and Homers: Luis Castillo, Nick Pivetta, and Domingo German … are all basically the same player, right? High SwStr%s and high likelihood of getting clobbered. Right now I’m riding out the first two with the third freely available (roto redraft w/QS). Am I doing this wrong?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, sorta. Pivetta’s been beat up by Washington twice doing a ton of the damage. But ya I get the general point. I’d still favor Pivetta most and then Castillo. Not sure how many innings German gets

Vegan Man!: Who do you like more in a 12 team standard H2H – Jose Martinez or Belt? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Belt

Rocco: My SPs are Sale, Snell, Price, Clevinger, Flaherty.   I feel great about 1 and 2 pitchers, but do you think I’m good for the 3rd, 4th, 5th pitchers?

Paul Sporer: That’s a solid rotation. Stay diligent in case anything pops down the stretch, but I feel good about that group

Rocco: Trying to upgrade to win in 2018 — what can I reasonably ask for Juan Soto in a keeper league?  A top 30, 40, 50 player?

Paul Sporer: I’d assume a mint

Bill: Trea Turner And Shane Bieber for Jose Ramirez. H2H Category dynasty league. Who wins?

Paul Sporer: That’s not the right way to view trades, especially at this point in the year. Grading trades at face value is worthless information. It’s all about whether or not you’re helping your team more by making the deal. That seems like a fair deal that would help both teams

Re Ohtani: His pitcher rank is on the BOARD, hitter is not. BOth 70 grades

Paul Sporer: Oh ok. I don’t run the board so I’m not entirely sure on that, sorry

Markus: What do you think, Aguilar or Muncy ROS? Is either a top 30 player?

Paul Sporer: I’m leaning Muncy with the positional flexibility and similar power-based profile

Randy Burgess: Do you think Teoscar Hernandez has reached his ceiling?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say so yet. I think he can replicate Domingo’s 2017 as a peak season

Guest: What are you expecting from Daniel Murphy 2nd half? I may have a buy low opportunity and am slightly intrigued…

Paul Sporer: He’s showing some life. I definitely think if he’s healthy, he’s going to rake so I like the idea of buying low

Steve: Do you see Votto’s power returning in the second half?

Paul Sporer: I do, yes

Jay: Ok to drop dds for kiermaier? I need some kind of steals

Paul Sporer: Kinda similar profiles so it’s a personal preference. I still dig DD’s speed

Kelvin: I traded Godley + j.Gray for Dozier – how’d I do? Dozier still a good buy-low?

Paul Sporer: I like it, good buy low

Photography Raptor: Would you rather have had the career of Paul Lo Duca or Paul Byrd

Paul Sporer: That’s a good one. I played Catcher as a kid so I’m partial to that, but then I became such a pitching fanatic and so I think I lean to Byrd’s carer

Desperate, Confused Marlins Fan: Is Travis Shaw buy low? all his numbers look good. just looks like a BABIP issue.

Paul Sporer: Ya I really like him rest of season

Dungeon Master: PAUL! I am contending in a dynasty league 5×5 w/ QS instead of W, do I trade Justus Sheffield for Tyler Anderson or hope Sheff contributes this year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t see Sheff contributing any major IP so I like this. I’m an Anderson fan. I don’t think you have to sit EVERY time at home, either

Quadrangular: starting Godley against ATL?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think if he’s worth rostering, he’s worth starting

Paul Sporer: OK yall, I gotta roll early on this one. Going to do a mega chat Wednesday for the All-Star break. Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer)! Talk to y’all next week. (Pod up later, btw)