Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 24th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Baseball is on my tv! Let’s goooo!!

BL27: I’m not enterely sold on Jose Peraza yet. What do you expect from him this season ? 80+ runs ? 35+ SB ? ,290 AVG ?

Paul Sporer: I’m not entirely sold, either. I rarely am sold on those speed-focused guys. I think it’d be an amazing season if he reached those numbers. That feels like an upside.

Yuk Yuk Puk: Saves and Holds AL only 10 tm roto. I can’t keep Miller at $18 or Britton at $23, right? I feel like that’s way too expensive in a saves+holds league

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s too much cash locked up in those. One or the other.

Meat: In 12 team mixed auction leagues that emphasize offense do you feel that stars and scrubs works better or do you routinely spread the risk?

Paul Sporer: I’m always good with Stars n Scrubs in 10/12 tm leagues bc the waiver wire will be relatively rich

B-Wall: In a H2H 6×6 w QS and K/9, who do you prefer between Jake Odorizzi and Kevin Gausman?

Paul Sporer: Gausman. I do like Odorizzi, but Gausman still has sky-high potential

Rum Ham: In a league that uses OBP and TB instead of HR and AVG, do you like the combo of Arrieta/Daniel Murphy or Kluber/Dozier?

Paul Sporer: Kluber/Dozier for me. It comes down to the SPs to be honest

John: Have you found that breakout stud SP through your research this offseason? If you had to plant your flag to one SP to take a HUGE step forward, it would be?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t fully completed my work, but James Paxton is up there (I know it’s not original, but I love him)

Arthur: So many opinions out there on Buxton and G. Cole… pick one for a dynasty keep forever league

Paul Sporer: I generally lean hitters, but I think I’d go Cole, tbh

Benny the Jet: 10tm H2H dynasty. Would you trade Rizzo, Sano, and McCullers for Arenado and Bregman? Think it’s a fair deal?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think that’s fair for sure. I’d do it.

Peanut: Last keeper in a DEEP NL-only. Peraza at 15 or Iglesias at 10. With Philips gone, Peraza seems like the right choice… I worry that Iggy ends up in a save-share situation. And, of course, the shoulder.

Paul Sporer: Ya I know I just said I’m not super sold on Peraza, but he’s the choice here

Murphy’s Injured Booty : Who’s the prospect you’re drafting most in non dynasty keeper leagues?

Paul Sporer: Beni or Swanson. I don’t go too heavy on prospects in redraft so I’m sticking with the upper tier

Slamboni: First base is stupid thin, especially in an al only. What should I pay for a top tier guy like Miggy, Abreu, EE or Hosmer?

Paul Sporer: Ya it’s thinner than most realize. I’d pay up in AL only, but only for the first 3. I’m meh on Hos

John: How do you value need vs production in a trade… need a MI so is Pedroia for Adam Jones a poor short-term move?

Paul Sporer: that’s a perfectly fine trade regardless of need, IMO

Paul Sporer: before the season, I wouldn’t value need TOO much bc we don’t really know what we truly need

Paul Sporer:

Bored: Would you be comfortable with Edwin Diaz as your #1 closer and then a guy like Jim Johnson much later with Barraclough too. Or would you scoop up Diaz and Colome if you could?

Paul Sporer: I can get behind a Diaz/JJ combo, but I would want a spec pick like Barraclough. I usually invest in one of the high end of closers (meaning top 5), but absent that, I like this.

Rum Ham: If the price is the same, who should I take as my 2nd starter: DeGrom or Tanaka?

Paul Sporer: Tanaka for me http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-starting-pitcher/

big boy: $51 Harper or $1 Bregman??

Paul Sporer: Probably need more info on league type and size, but I’d go Breg and just try to buy Harper back. Probably won’t go for MORE than $51. Meanwhile Bregman obv has no chance to go $1

OttoNeu: Moncada, Odorizzi for Eloy Jimenez, Kyle Lewis, and JP Crawford?

Paul Sporer: Prob prefer side A. All the risk is tied up in Side B. Seems fair, though

Bill: Sano v. Franco – Who do you like this year and long term?

Paul Sporer: Franco. I’m not a huge Sano guy

Alfalfa: Hey Paul – my minor league draft is tomorrow. I want an impact SP – is Cotton the clear choice over Gsellman?

Paul Sporer: For me, yes

Peanut: Any HUGE step NL SPs?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-leap-year-nl-edition/

Dabo Dabo Sweeney: Which one of these pitchers doesn’t get TJ in 2017? Degrom, Matz, Thor?

Paul Sporer: Weird question bc obviously I have no clue. I’ll go super optimistic and say they all avoid it!

jpg: I have the #3 pick in the draft. Standard 5×5 mixed league with 11 teams. Salary cap is $330 with 22 man rosters, no bench/everyone starts. Salaries are based on last year’s value according to Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster. Top two picks are expected to be Trout at $42 and Kershaw at $35. If you were me would you go chalk (Altuve $44), good value (Harper $21) or incredible value (Pollack $1) in my spot? Based on trends – it’s our 20th season – ADPs go out the window to a large degree so guys like Pollack, Schwarber ($0) and Stanton ($10) will likely be gone before my second pick but a typical first round stud like Goldschmidt ($36) might make it back to me. What should I do?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Harper. Chance at a $40+ player at half the price and still a very strong floor

OttoNeu: Moncada, Odorizzi for Eloy Jimenez, Kyle Lewis, JP Crawford.

Which side is better? OBP dynasty league

Paul Sporer: don’t. repeat. questions.

Paul Sporer: You know how sometimes someone tells you a text didn’t go through and that’s why they didn’t answer? They’re lying? 100% of texts go through and if they don’t, the sender sees why and has a chance re-send. Your questions are coming through, but I can’t answer instantly, so please don’t repeat.

Hector: Do you think Joey Votto will get walked over 2,000 times next year?

Paul Sporer: At least.

Paul Sporer:

Hector: Paul, in a H2H league that also included OBP/BB, would you rate Villar as high or higher than Lindor/Bogaerts? I expect regression from Villar but not much. Are you a believer in him next year?

Paul Sporer: I’m a believer. I’d go Villar, Lindor, Bogy

H2h points: I have stephenson fulmer newcome for my last keeper slot. Who should i hang on to

Paul Sporer: I imagine that’s Carson Fulmer? I’d probably go Newcombe tbh

AC: What are your expectations for Joc Pederson? Seems to have improved each year , power has been there, slight improvement vs Lefties seems tangible given end of last season and postseason

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge fan of Pederson. I actually still think he’s starts running soon, too. He stole 34 bases per 600 PA in the minors

sean: Looking for SP help – 12 team, keep 8, extra cats IP, L, HR all, k/b and QS. Looking for 2 of the following: Eickhoff, Cobb, McHugh, Desclafini, Wacha, Davies. Which 2 should round my rotation for this year?

Paul Sporer: Cobb and Wacha

Dabo Dabo Sweeney: There is an awesome report out there by Pirates Prospects on Tyler Glasnow on how he’s changed his delivery as well as his grip on FB and Changeup and apparently he has been unhittable early in ST. Would you want to get any shares of him?

Paul Sporer: I’m not a huge fan bc I’m worried about his mechanics, but that’s interesting. Do you have the link? I probably still won’t invest, but I’ll keep an eye on him

John: 12 team H2H keeper league — offensive categories are R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS — I’ve been offered Machado ($13 this year, $23 next year), Cargo ($30), & deGrom ($13) -for- Story ($5 this year and next) & Wil Myers ($1 this year and next). I hate to lose Myers and Story, but I probably have to say yes, right?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think it’s a deal you probably have to take. I agree that I hate to lose those guys, but MM is a first rounder and Cargo goes around the two you’re giving up. Plus you get deGrom. V good offer.

Dave: How much more valuable is Jose Reyes if the Mets follow through on having him lead off 3 or 4 times a week?

Paul Sporer: Dickhead of a person, but should put up numbers this year

bob: If you’re looking for like 70% floor 30% upside who do you prefer: Gray, Nola, Ray, Pineda?

Paul Sporer: Pineda, Nola, Gray, Ray

Dave: What percentage of the season does Moncada play in the majors? What’s his strike out percentage when there?

Paul Sporer: 46%, 25%

SoriaYes!: Does anyone have a higher fantasy ceiling than Harper? Any other high ceiling guys that you’d target for 2017?

Paul Sporer: Trout, but Harper’s is sky high

John too: What do you think of Domingo Santana this year?

Paul Sporer: Intrigued. Nice pop and actually some speed, too (could swipe 10+, espec. in MIL where they run a ton)

Sany Ravage: AL only Dynasty Roto QS and K’s. Keep Chris Archer at $27 or try to get him in the draft for less?

Paul Sporer: I could keep him at that price. You know your league better, if you think he’d really go less, then throw back, but I think it could be risky, espec. if he came out when there weren’t any more frontliners

Murphy’s Injured Booty : Keep 7 in 12 tm h2h: Altuve, Mookie, Edwin, Murphy, Story, Marte, Lester, Yu, Greinke, Paxton. You’re throwing back Marte Greinke Pax right?

Paul Sporer: I might keep Marte over Lester, but otherwise yes

Jason: I have Hendricks/Hill in 16 team mixed. What’s better considering ADPs: add ‘Ace’ like Kershaw or adding a Salazar + Teheran

Paul Sporer: I’d prefer Kersh in a deeper league like that

OC: I’ve got a top 3 pick in my 20 team deep dynasty league’s upcoming draft. Not sure how to value Eric Thames as compared to a prospect from the last rule 4 draft/international signings (senzel, ray, maitan, acuna). My team has been retooling, but realistically wont be competing for a championship till next season. Is thames potential short term boost worth more than the prospect, who I can always deal next season for help if he ain’t ready

Paul Sporer: If you’re only taking Thames to trade him for a player in the vein of the others you might draft, you might as well just cut out the middle man and take the prospect in case Thames flops

El Toro: If I draft Thames and Healy, at least one of them will work out as my everyday 1B right? (6×6 with OPS)

Paul Sporer: Is Healy playing 1B? I’m good taking both, though

Brad: I know you aren’t a prospects guy, but doing 1st ever minor league draft. Do you have 5 guys you like? Much appreciated.

Paul Sporer: Beni, Swanson, Robles, Brinson, Zimmer and bonus: Honeywell

Jimmy: Hey Paul, Thanks for the chat. I love the auction calculator tool you guys have. If anyone hasnt already, they should definitely check it out. Would it be possible to add a QS option for the pitchers under the points based system on the calculator?

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much. I’ll mention it and see if we can get it added

Dave: In a 20-team mixed league, where would you take Ian Desmond?

Paul Sporer: 4th-5th round.

Paul Sporer:

Hector: Would you be fine with replacing a mid-level SP with Andrew Miller for his stellar ratios mainly (my H2H league employs, ER, ERA, WHIP, K, S, W)?

Paul Sporer: Sure. Miller is a stud

Stiguana: Ken Giles + Sam Dyson+ JBJ for King Felix + Desmond H2H points, which side you want?

Paul Sporer: hmm, prob side B, but it’s fair

Jay: What do you attribute Charlie Blackmon’s decrease in SB and SBA? Do you think given age expecting 20 attempts should be the new norm or do you think we’ll see an uptick in steals by him again?

Paul Sporer: Choice, mostly. Nothing else really changed

Tip Tipson: AL only Keeper 12team $260 – Trade Trumbo $18 for Judge $8… What are your thoughts on Judge?

Paul Sporer: No. I’ve never been huge on Trumbo, but I’m really tepid on Judge. I know he smashed a HR today, but I think he’ll continue to struggle with Ks

Tex: Everyone taking mookie over Goldie…Why? Goldie’s had a down year last year(for him) and was still awesome.

Paul Sporer: Ya Goldy was still a total beast. I think it’s probably just the perception of more bankable speed, but Goldy has 15+ SB in 4 of the last 5 (the other was injury shortened to 109 games) and it’s not like Betts is swiping 30+ every year. In short, I get what you’re saying and I’m totally fine with Goldy > Betts

Tip Tipson: NL Only Keeper – who would you rather have: peraza or A. Diaz?

Paul Sporer: Depends how much speed you have. Again, I’m not huge on Peraza, but if you’re slow elsewhere, he will at least run

John: Not a knock on the community but every season we have the hot rookies or late call ups that kill it and the next season the experts are all over them. Now we have a new 1st-2nd round name in Trea Turner. believed you drafted him over Harper. Why are we always falling for this? Why are we chancing these guys over proven studs?

Paul Sporer: Didn’t draft him over Harper

Paul Sporer: Who has ever done what Turner did, though? Regress his power and AVG, add SB, R, and RBI and how is he not a top pick? Espec w/2B, SS, and OF eligibility.

John too: In a 12 team keeper league with decent inflation (approx 10% in the past) would you keep either Odorizzi and Richards for $12?

Paul Sporer: Odorizzi. Still a little nervous about Richards

franz: Is Puig+Moncada a fair starting point for Posey in Keeper? (10tm roto, keep 12 as first 12 rounds).

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes

Paul Sporer:

Mike: H2H league with OPS+Holds. I can keep 3. Lucroy(8th), Cano(2nd), K Seager(5th), Correa(1st), Mazara(11th), Piscotty(14th), Khris Davis(19th), Healy(11th), Scherzer(1), Maeda(15), Hill(11), Salazar(7).

Paul Sporer: Seager, Davis, and Hill I think

Adam: In a 12 tm 5×5 H2H league most guys set their rotations to either 7 SP 2CL or 6 SP 3CL. What do you think about doing 5SP 2CL 2MI (where the MI’s are Miller/Betances types)?

Paul Sporer: Maybe just 1 CL and you kinda forfeit SV, but try to crush ERA, WHIP, K, and still compete in Ws w/6 SP (and even some sneaky Ws from Miller and Betances)

Randy Savage: Have some tough keeper choices I was hoping you could help with (12 team OBP Keep 6): David Price or Jacob deGrom; and would you keep either over Bregman, Sano, or Benintendi?

Paul Sporer: Price and Bregman. I know the Beni hype is through the roof right now and I honestly wouldn’t shade you for taking him over Bregman, but I’m just big on Breg

Connor: I’ve found that so far, I’ve been drafting 1st basemen in later rounds. What are some good targets in the later rounds. Or are there some good targets earlier on? Currently, I’ve mostly been drafting Tommy Joseph and Kendrys Morales.

Paul Sporer: I think you’re taking too much of a hit to start Joseph at 1B. I like Morales think he’ll be sneaky strong this year. If I can’t get a stud, I prefer the Abreu, Hanley, Santana tier personally, but later I’d look Nap, Bour, and the aforementioned Joseph, though they really work better as your CI

Peanut: Thoughts on Panik? Should we expect him to keep the BB% and get that BABIP back up into the .300s? At a glance, everything from 2016 looks good, except his BABIP cratered.

Paul Sporer: yeah I’m huge on Panik at his rock bottom price. really looks like some bad luck with his BABIP. still has great skills.

Ralph: When calculating inflation for an auction keeper league, should you calculate the hitters & pitchers separately based on your target hitter/pitcher split and use two different inflation rates? Or throw everyone in one pool?

Paul Sporer: I usually just calculate it all told, but I think separate would work if you wanna do that

Rum Ham: Am I crazy for suspecting that Ellsbury will have a slight bounceback? Maybe .275 w 30 steals

Paul Sporer: Not crazy, no. Hit .263 last year so .275 is nothing. Health will dictate if he can add the SBs back

AJ: AL Only Keeper league ($260 12 teamer): Im scared to throw back Dyson @ $15. The SB category isnt too strong and lots of other Speed guys being kept… Would you keep Dyson over Trumbo $18?

Paul Sporer: I can get behind it. I don’t love Dyson, but he will steal bases for sure

Murphy’s Injured Booty : Hey I was just listening to Big Sean. You listen to new Future (HENDRXX)?

Paul Sporer: ya I’ve listened to some of it. gonna keep listening to see if it clicks with me, I was meh first spin

Bust: Can you please spend all your time podcasting? I spend all my time in the car

Paul Sporer: lol ok

DW: Standard 12 team 5×5. How much weight do you place on the difference between NL and AL starters? If I’m keeping Thor, Darvish and Tanaka, would I be pushing my luck buying Paxton and McCullers at auction?

Paul Sporer: I don’t get TOO hung up. I’ve noticed that Collette and I tend to end up with an abundance of AL SPs. The NL is better, but the gap has lessened so I generally focus on talent.

Paul Sporer: And I love Pax & McCullers, so I’d be inclined to wanna keep em

HappyFunBall: 12x H2H Roto, OBP/SLG league. Keep two of: Cano, Carrasco, Posey, Villar, Yelich

Paul Sporer: Cano, Villar

Al: Keeper question! 10 team league, 5×5, can ONLY keep the player for 1 or 2 years (not forever), and I sacrifice the round they were drafted in. 17th round Porcello or 26th round Urias?

Paul Sporer: Think ya gotta go Porcello there

seth r: working on my keeper list: castellanos @$12, Odor @$17, Schoop @$10, D Peralta @$9 for hitters and Nola $11, Pineda $14, Teheran $13 for pitchers. any of these you avoid or jump on? 16 team 5×5 $260 budget

Paul Sporer: I like Teheran and Nola. Think you might get Pineda cheaper in the auction. Odor and Schoop prices are fine, but 2B is so deep that I might throw em back and spend elsewhere. Either wouldn’t be a bad keep, but it’s not huge surplus value. Intrigued by Peralta at $9, but imagine he’s cheaper at auction, too. None of these are bad prices, but they aren’t obvious MUST keepers, either

Dave: If you had Bregman and Franco at 3B but no SS of note in a keeper forever 20 Team league, would you trade Dahl / Franco for Lindor / Castellanos? My other OF are Harper, Ozuna, Pederson and Margot.

Paul Sporer: Ya I can definitely get down with that deal!

Connor: It’s sounding like the Athletics will have a competition this spring for closer. Who gets the most saves for them this year? Madson, Doolittle, Dull, Hendricks, Axford, or someone else?

Paul Sporer: Doolittle and Madson top 2

Dabo Dabo Sweeney: RE: Glasnow change up. http://www.piratesprospects.com/2017/02/first-pitch-the-evolution-of-tyler-glasnows-changeup.html

Paul Sporer: ty

Jimmy: I know you guys have consensus ranks coming for another position soon. When do you think the overall consensus ranks will come out?

Paul Sporer: we don’t do overalls, but I’ll consider doing it for the March update

Zack: Who’s your Mookie Betts for this year? I.E. a player going in the second or third round that will preform like a first rounder and be a potential top pick next year.

Paul Sporer: Correa and Story

BL27: Mitch Haniger or Hunter Renfroe in 2017 ?

Paul Sporer: Renfroe

Connor: Will there ever be another 300 win pitcher?

Paul Sporer: Seems unlikely the way the game is today

Nolson: 9 team NL only keeper (5 keeps). What sort of draft pick compensation, if any, should I be looking for in return for Dee Gordon? I drafted Trea Turner last year in 2nd to last round so it’s obvi i’m keeping him.

Paul Sporer: I might keep both and just be set on speed. But if you do trade Gordon, you should be looking for a pretty strong return. He’s guaranteed SBs even if the AVG doesn’t return

Shin Choo Been Gone: This fantasy advice is all well and good, but I’m really here for team name advice, got any doozies?

Paul Sporer: I’m so bad at team names. Your handle is amazing

jimmy : how close do you follow the auction calculator in your preep-

Paul Sporer: Not at all. I’m not married to any single projection. I gather the data to see what it’s putting out, but I get multiple projections just to see what the range is

Max: Jake Lamb or Kendrys Morales for CI in a H2H league that does not penalize K’s?

Paul Sporer: Lamb

Fangraphs Fan: Will Fangraphs be doing the profiles on player pages this year? If yes, when will they debut? They are incredibly helpful.

Paul Sporer: Yes! Early March rollout. I’ll be editing them alll weekend

Minty: In an OBP league, are Trea and Villar going to put up basically the same numbers?

Paul Sporer: Ya pretty comparable

G Money: Thoughts on Segura? Can he be better than what most pundits think? The guy will have Cano and Cruz batting behind him.

Paul Sporer: I think Arizona def helped, but I don’t see him collapsing in Seattle

Jay: Should I try to handcuff Montero if I draft Contreras? Posey, S. Perez, Sanchez and Lucroy are all kept plus I’m guessing Schwarber wont get enough starts at catcher to qualify until midseason.

Paul Sporer: Sure, that works

Boss Man: Keep 1 – Cespedes (6) Justin Turner (16) Kennedy (27). Rest of team is Harper, Scherzer, Votto, Chapman, Longoria, Dahl and Bregman

Paul Sporer: Turner for sure

MeDeKe: Stars and Scrubs still apply to especially deep 10/12 tm lgs? I’m in a 10 tm now but we keep 40 man roster + unlimited DL.

Paul Sporer: That certainly changes things

Sulzer : All things being equal, peraza or Nova?

Paul Sporer: Peraza. SB more valuable than mid rotation arm

Minty: QS. Nola and his elbow or J Gray and Coors?

Paul Sporer: Gray

Guest: My wife and I are going to the Spring Opener for the Twins and Rays tonight, Paulie. Should there be any other objective other than having drinks and watching fireworks? Today is just about joy, yes?

Paul Sporer: Ahhhh so jelly! Just enjoy it. You’re not going to get a ton of fantasy usefulness out of game 1

senorsilver: H2H categories, keep 12 in 10 team league. Last 4 keepers between: Mazara, Benintendi, Puig, Moncada, Pedroia, J Paxton, Britton

Paul Sporer: Britton, Beni, Pax, and I’d actually go off the board a bit with Maz. 2B too deep to go Petey, IMO

Tobias: Just drafted Eloy Jimenez, Kevin Maitan, Garrett Whitley, and Bobby Dalbec in my Dynasty minors draft. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: No idea who that last guy is, but that’s a nice group! Saw Eloy in AFL and it was awesome

Pomeranz: NL only league with high inflation and most SP1 kept – would you keep CMart at $27? Polanco at $31?

Paul Sporer: with the inflation, I think you can go CMart. He’s a stud

Bored: Would you spend a middle round pick on Yamani Grandal if the other top catchers are too rich for you? Or would you wait it out for the back end?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK with it, ya

Jason: With Bellinger playing all 3 OF spots in the Cactus, think he plays a ton at the majors this yr?

Paul Sporer: A ton? No.

doomed : I took over a wasteland ( its bad) of a team in a 12 team dynasty league. Should i just go straight prospects and try to be competitive in 4 years or try to pick up waiver wire guys and squeeze out a couple wins a year

Paul Sporer: Burn it to the ground and rebuild

Jason: $200 QS keeper. You cool with J Gray at 7/8/9 for the next 3?

Paul Sporer: Ya that works, though I’d rather not sign him to a 3-year deal. Just don’t like extending SPs too long

Penguin: How much do you think Addison Russell is worth in a keeper (OBP, keep 12). I can keep for $15. But SS looks deep.

Paul Sporer: $77

Paul Sporer: Kidding, of course. I love Addi, though. $15 is fine, but I hear you re: SS’s depth so I’d be OK if you passed

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Pauly Shore, don’t try to fancy your name up like Joe Dirtè. 10 team roto, shallow rosters, is Kershaw a first round pick? I’m not sure if he’s rated higher or lower in shallower rosters?

Paul Sporer: Kershaw is always a first rounder… even in AL onlys, just in case 🙂

Jack: With pitching and hitting needs similar in 5×5 league, who would you keep this year between Tim Anderson and Berrios?

Paul Sporer: I’m actually relatively high on Berrios this year, but I think you go Anderson. He’s got a clear path to playing time and should at least be solid

daneyko: do you see Joe Musgrove with the Astros to start the season ?

Paul Sporer: Probably not, but Morton is hardly a bastion of health

Launching Padre: Any idea long will Kang will be suspended for?

Paul Sporer: No, I’d imagine something like a month, though

Peanut: Are you buying Shelby Miller as a bounce back candidate?

Paul Sporer: I am, actually. It certainly can’t be worse… can it? CAN IT?!?!!?! AHHHHH

conforto: have the mets ruined me

Paul Sporer: Haha, no… not yet

Ted: How do you value elite closers in saves+holds leagues? Aroldis Chapman is ranked between 40-50 in saves leagues, where would goes like him ranked in saves+holds leagues?

Paul Sporer: Still rank them at the top and don’t really change their draft slot too much. The very best closers are still elite bc of the ratios and Ks

Drew: Strange question – in my 16 team league, 30 man rosters – If I roster six relievers (Melancon, Britton, Dyson, Cishek, Phelps, Will Smith) am I hurting myself long run not having more starters or deeper bench bats?

Paul Sporer: I could see maybe keeping Phelps in case he gets thrust back into the rotation, but I’d rather not keep Smith and Cishek

Choo Choo: I’m competing, but would you move Arrieta for Jon Gray and Urias?

Paul Sporer: I can get behind that, yeah.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: In regards to your texts not going through comment, that’s actually not true. I had a period where my texts weren’t going through because several people told me they weren’t getting them. One person in particular would never lie to me so it does happen. But I promise not to repeat this.

Paul Sporer: OK, I think your one off example proves it then! 🙂

Dave: 12-team mixed, keep 5; trade an 8th round Desmond for a 22d round Dahl?

Paul Sporer: Ya. I love Desi, but gimme the cheaper Dahl

Boberto : Has there been any research done on what impact the K percentage of heart of the order guys has on a leadoff/#2 hitters likelihood to steal? Ie do teams that have lots of big sluggers that strike out often (or conversely have great contact hitters) run more or less? Would think the big K teams would run less to avoid double play BR curious about your take

Paul Sporer: Hmm that’s v interesting. Haven’t seen any study on it, but maybe I’ll see if Pod or Zimm wants to do something on it

cJ: Keep Bogey in 5th or Duffy in 14th? Analysis- Bogey. Gut- Duffy. Paul-…..?

Paul Sporer: Duffy for me

Dicky Thon: AL only 2 catcher- 10 teams- no bench- 4×4 (no runs, no k)- Is Evan Gattis, Edwyn Diaz, or Adrian Beltre my final keeper? (Altuve, the real Krush Davis, EE as the other 3)

Paul Sporer: I think I’d go Gattis, tbh. Surprising myself answering that way, but 2 C only leagues are tough. I think he’ll find playing time so I’m not worried on that end.

Edwin: Better dynasty choice – W. Myers or Bregman?

Paul Sporer: Oooh that’s interesting. I think I’d Breg bc of Myers’ injury history

Mama: Can keep 4 of these sp for 1 year in 16 team league 5×5 that starts 6 sp. $270 budget. Most of the top sp will be kept. Arrieta 24, archer 16, Hendricks 11, quintana 10, Moore 3, descla 3, rodon 1, Cobb 1, and Conley 1. Don’t get cute and keep the top 4, right?

Paul Sporer: Archer, Hendricks, Q for sure, but I might keep Rodon over Arrieta with the savings. That’s probably getting cute, though. Arrieta’s health track record is my concern, but he could put up a $24 season in 150 IP. I’m torn on that last one.

The Duda: 10tm H2H dynasty would you trade Bettts for Correa and Benintendi?

Paul Sporer: i would, yes

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Shallow 10’team 5×5, our pitching lineups are 3 SP, 2 RP, and 3 P slots. I’ve found that using all 3 P slots for closers helps dominates saves. Should I fill them will dominate closers by drafting them early or fill them by committee whoever is the flavor of the month?

Paul Sporer: If you’re going that, go with good ones so you also get the Ks and good ratios

The Duda: What type of SP would you give for Schwarber in a 10tm keep forever obp and ops league? I offered Felix. He came back w/ Kluber. No way in my mind.

Paul Sporer: Ya the thing is, the asking price will be huge and you probably won’t want to pay it.

Max: Is Cody Allen going to be an effective closer in H2H leagues even with Miller stealing a couple? I hate having a guy who is not used for all saves opps.

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t worry. If he keeps performing, he’s going to get his 30+

Enlightening Round: Steamer projects Josh Beckett to have 1 inning this year. Who does he get that inning with and how does he get to the 4.28 ERA they call for?

Paul Sporer: lol

Mike: Thanks for answering my longwinded crappy keeper question. Im simming seasons on the show and watching baseball on my tv. Baseball!

Paul Sporer: it’s the most wonderful time of the year!

Russell Archer: Keep three (10-team H2H catagories): Goldy (1), C. Seager (5), Arenado (7), G. Polanco (16), Tanaka (23, wavier pickup)

Paul Sporer: Seager, Arenado, and Goldy. 2 first rounders and a 2nd rounder at the cost of 1-5-7

Boss Man: How much does your outlook on Bregman change if he hits 6th or 7th? I have a weird feeling the Astros will do a right-left-right thing with Springer, Reddick, Altuve.

Paul Sporer: It matters, but I don’t usually get TOO hung up on those things. That lineup is stout, so even at 6, it’s not like an average #6 hitter in terms of PA and R/RBI opps

Enlightening Round: Points league, looking to trade my $8 G Polanco, sliding draft cap but most teams are around $330, how high up the pitching chart can I get, kind of looking at Paxton, McCullers, Cotton any of those work for you?

Paul Sporer: Love Cotton, but he’s too low for an $8 Polly. I’d take Paxton or McCullers if I had to, but I’d even shoot a little higher. I think Gregory Polanco has even another level after his ’16

Dave: Hi Paul! 12 team, 6×6 (OPS and holds) who has the most keeper value? JD Martinez $22, Polanco $17, Quintana $15, Peraza $6

Paul Sporer: I mean it’s Peraza in terms of value v. cost bc SBs are valued so highly. I could see myself keeping the aforementioned Polanco, though

Drew: Hey Paul, hope you’re good – 30 man Rosters, $400 budget, 16 team deep league – should I trade my Alex Wood ($8) for Souza Jr. ($10)? Or is there better value for him elsewhere?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d do that

kdallas: Who’s your favorite reserve round rookie/prospect stash in a 7-bench weekly keeper league? Renfroe, Domingo, Meadows, Tapia, or Bellinger?

Paul Sporer: Renfroe – obscene power and clear opportunity

Derr: Weighing options with Jameson Taillon in a keeper league. What do you see as a realistic upside or ceiling for him?

Paul Sporer: He could have an Aaron Sanchez season. Lots to like with him.

The Old Professor: Ryan Braun, Robles and DDuffy for Bregman , a 3rd round pick and a 19th round pick .. 12 team dynasty, no dollar figures.. which side wins?

Paul Sporer: Side A

warm, kakie center.: devon travis for daniel norris in a 12-team, 6×6 h2h categories keep everyone forever league (w/ QS + BAA instead of W and OPS + H instead of AVG) – who wins?

Paul Sporer: Travis

LudeBurger: I like that your chats are on Fridays with Sullivan’s so I can see who was actually asking Jeff fantasy baseball questions as disguised real life ones, since he doesn’t usually like answering them.

Paul Sporer: LOL

Big Z: 14 team roto keeper, which side do you like better in a trade: Goldschmidt/Schwarber or Trout/Herrera?

Paul Sporer: Pretty close. Schwarber side if he has C eligibility, otherwise Trout side

Big Z: Is Goldschmidt too much to give up for Trea Turner in a 14 team roto keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Ya, probably so. I mean, they’re both first rounders, but as much as I like Turner, I’d just keep Goldy

Guest: I traded Story for Rake Lamb mere DAYS before Story got hurt last year… and I still feel like I lost (dynasty league). Console me?

Paul Sporer: You didn’t really benefit much bc Lamb got hurt and sputtered to the finish line, huh? I love Rake Lamb, but you took the L here. Story is a power-speed stud in Coors

Kyle: How would you approach drafting 2 C league? One good and a second/backup late or just wait on all of them?

Paul Sporer: If I don’t get a stud, then I’m getting two in the middle. I no longer go for total scrubs. It wastes two spots as they almost never pan out

Minty: Any shirsey recommendations? Currently I have Mookie, Baez, Russell, and J Fernandez

Paul Sporer: Great collection. Verlander or Paxton

Edwin: Final keeper – Upton or Segura, 5×5 roto?

Paul Sporer: Gimme J Up, but it’s close

FGM: Points keeper league. Desmond for Joc and Buxton? Looking to win now and in the future.

Paul Sporer: That’s a fair deal for Desi

G money: Any upside to joey gallo this year?

Paul Sporer: I’m not a fan, tbh

Hector: Do you see a potential Jonathan Villar-like player this year? Someone who probably isn’t drafted but offers top-ten potential? I know that is rare , so how about top 25? It seems like the players more likely do offer this are speedy guys since the SB is worth a lot nowadays.

Paul Sporer: Boy, that’s tough. I think it has to be a speedster, so I’m thinking guys like Delino DeShields, Roman Quinn, or Andrew Toles are the names I’ve got. Maybe Jurickson Profar, but he’s been getting drafted even in shallow lgs, but v late

King Felix: Where would you bat Marte in the Pirates lineup? Seems like he should bat 1st or 2nd.

Paul Sporer: I’m actually OK with him in the middle of the lineup. He excelled at 4 last year

Pomeranz: last NL only keeper: Schleber $5, Josh bell $8, Arcia $11, C Martinez $27?

Paul Sporer: CMart or Bell

Onslow: Is Andrew miller top 80 pick in SV+HLDs League? or more like other closer come down to where he is?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d probably take him in that range

Cecil Fielder: 16-team auction league w/ 5 round MiLB draft. 10 keepers. i’m in the AL.

Final keeper?

Brinson (1st round slot – $10 once he comes up)
Zimmer (1st round slot – $10 once he comes up)
Groomer (5th round slot – $2 once he comes up)
Cueto $25
Gurriel $1
Alex Colome $1

Paul Sporer: Confused by “I’m in the AL”, but I don’t think I’d get too cute and just keep an ace at $25

Drew: Strange question – in my 16 team league, 30 man rosters – If I roster six relievers (Melancon, Britton, Dyson, Cishek, Phelps, Will Smith) am I hurting myself long run not having more starters or deeper bench bats?

Paul Sporer: Damn you, now I’m mad I answered this

Guest: Do I even consider a $7 Britton or $5 Oh?

Guest: Ahh, dude, I have no idea: 10 team, keep 5, 5×5 (OBP), $260 budget, who do you keep out of Bryant ($39), Miggy ($33), C. Seager ($24), Pollock ($7), Dahl $3, Ramirez $6, Polanco $8?

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna guess these are related… though I posted em out of order.

Paul Sporer: I’d prob spend big and keep Bryant, Miggy, and Seager at the top. Then Dahl and your preference of Pollock or Polanco … so no the cheap RPs don’t get much love. Just keep 5 hitters then stack pitching at auction

Ian: Hi Paul! Would you trade 1 year of LeMahieu for 2 years of Jon Gray (same price, NL 12 team 5×5)? – thanks!

Paul Sporer: Love Gray, but I’d probably keep DJLM at the same price

Jack: Keep Cotton at $3 in dynasty or throw him back to the draft and try and get him for $1?

Paul Sporer: Keep him at $3. Too much hype to see him going $1

Benson DuBois: How high are you on Grienke bounce-back season? Travis Sawchick’s piece on pitch framing in AZ makes a decent case.

Paul Sporer: I’m pretty high on it

Jack: Dynasty 10 team: my $5 castellanos for $17 melancon?

Paul Sporer: Very fair. I’d take either side

Spring Fling: Do you feel your use of the word hella in 2017 is hella lame or just lame?

Paul Sporer: derp derp derp

Deadly Dave: What’s a decent Pederson upside comparison? Thanks

Paul Sporer: George Springer

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Re: texts. You said 100%. I AM THE .01%!!! Anyway, onto more important matters. Camron Rupp the next Mike Piazza?

Paul Sporer: it’s funny bc I almost put 99.9%, but I went for it with 100%

Jhonny Peralta: Yo Paul, what am I gonna be worth fantasy-wise this year?

Paul Sporer: Solid, but unspectacular. I’m eyeing you late

Gordo: Can I suggest/request a pitcher battle of Verlander vs. Lester?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’ll see if we can do it this week

Kyle: Do you have a favorite current non closer option likely to take role soon?

Paul Sporer: Doolittle (though if it’s an open battle, he could win it) or Nate Jones

Idealist: $2 Pomeranz or $12 Keuchel? I’m in win-now mode, and rosters are locked until June, so I can’t replace injuries/role changes easily.

Paul Sporer: Both are health risks, but I’ll take Pomy and the savings

Scooter: How do you feel about Danny Salazar this year?

Paul Sporer: Nervous about the elbow, but it’s built into the price in most drafts so I’m willing to gamble bc the talent is hot

Mark M: Any concerns with Scherzer long term this season?

Paul Sporer: Nah, not really

Paul Sporer: I recommend not getting too hyped on the little injury news we’ll get all spring. Don’t just move everyone down when they report an injury. I think that happens too often in ST during the information age

Pomeranz: my $25 C martinez for his $5 Schelber and $11 Arcia in an NL only. thoughts?

Paul Sporer: CMart for sure

Scooter: Is there any hope for a healthy season from Lance McCullers?

Paul Sporer: Some hope, ya

Steve: keep one in 5×5 roto: justin turner, jose bautista, ken giles, cody allen, kyle hendricks

Paul Sporer: Probably Turner

Clown Question Bro: 6×6 (OPS) how do you rank – Puig, Broxton, Kiermaier, Belt, and Renfroe?

Paul Sporer: Kiermaier and Puig are my favorites – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-outfield/

Edwin: standard 5×5 12-team roto, 4 keepers – how early do you go after Bregman?

Paul Sporer: 6th-7th rd

Minty: As a Tigers’ fan, would you rock the Don Kelly shirsey?

Paul Sporer: 100%

Dave: Please rank the following in a 5×5 roto league: buxton, Bautista, trumbo, Harvey, Salazar, and c. Martinez?

Paul Sporer: CMart, Bautista, Salazar, Trumbo, Harvey, Buxton

Guest: 12-team league, is this rotation good enough or should I trade for some help? Sale / Price / Salazar / Nola / Desclafani / Alex Wood / de Leon / Conley / Kazmir / Giolito

Paul Sporer: Definitely good enough to start. Always gotta tweak rotations as the season goes, but two aces and some strong mid-rotation gambles is a great base

baby bull : Rank the AL Central 3B, Sano, J Ramirez, Castellanos, Moustakas, Frazier

Paul Sporer: Frazier, Ramirez, Sano, Moose, Casty

Paul Sporer: Y’all, all of my position rankings are up btw – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-catchers/ – except for RPs which are coming Monday

Paul Sporer: that’s Catchers, but it lists the others

Aaron: OBP keep forever league, position doesn’t matter. Who y’all got: Swanson or Dahl?

Paul Sporer: Dahl

TD: Better dynasty choice – Bregman or Pollack?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Bregman, but it’s slight

New Yorker: I need to call up one from my farm: Conforto or Judge. Who has a better 2017? I especially need power since I have Billy Hamilton and Trea Turner

Paul Sporer: I think it’s Conforto. I’m pretty tepid on Judge

Hack Wilson: H2H Categories with 7 Keepers. 2 years of 5th round Kris Bryant for 3 years of 12th rd Yu Darvish?

Paul Sporer: Bryant for sure

Dan: Can you rank positional depth for me? OF most shallow, right?

Paul Sporer: C most shallow, then OF, 1B, 3B, SS, 2B – middle infield is sexy this year

Cecil Fielder: “I’m in the AL” means 8 teams in each league. We draft in our league but can trade between the AL and NL. Thanks for the advice.

Paul Sporer: Ohhhh OK, cool!

Snowflake: I need a reality check. How much of a homer am I being keeping Gary Sanchez over Villar? Points league so the steals are nice, but less precious

Paul Sporer: I get that the SB might be down, but what about the volume of Villar’s PT v. that of a C, even a great C? I gotta go Villar

Hector: I’ve pretty much made my mind on choosing Harper in a H2H OBP/BB league with my 7th pick and then Votto on the turn-around. Any reasons you see why Machado would be a better fit with the first round pick? I can also potentially choose from Doanldson and Kershaw.

Paul Sporer: I love Harper/Votto

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Won’t answer the hard questions huh? Seriously Rupp isn’t going to be Piazza, but he hit pretty well last year. Chooch wasn’t a heralded prospect but he did have a few good fantasy years. Rupp with a starting spot in 10/12 teamers?

Paul Sporer: LOL. Rupp is fine, kills lefties. Can be a starter in a 2 C league or 1 C 15-teamer

JE: Strasburg IP # ?

Paul Sporer: 184

Captain Jack: I’m looking for some RPs who will deliver a high K/9, good rates and a few holds. Who do you like?

Paul Sporer: Jones, Barraclough, Neris (if he doesn’t get the job), and maybe Capps

cJ: I love shirseys. Worst case scenario they go into pajamas draw.

Paul Sporer: Exactly. They’re great!

JayB: 12-team H2H keep forever league with following cats: H R HR RBI SB BB K TB AVG OPS and IP W QS K/9 K/BB ERA WHIP HRA…..we keep 20 – team needs pitching but as the last keeper would you go Broxton over Shark? Broxton could bust out (albeit with a low avg and lots of Ks)

Paul Sporer: Ya even needing SP, I think you can gamble on Broxton over Shark

Hannah Hochevar: Small sample size, but it seems like Tyler Wilson is a cy young front-runner after his strong 2IP vs. Detroit today, right? BASEBALL IS BACK!!!

Paul Sporer: Total beast. Now a top 5 round pick lol

Brad: 10 team h2h keeper, betts 4th rd or Corey seager 8th rd ? Thank you.

Paul Sporer: The calculus here is whether Betts’ speed is worth the 4 rounds and I think it is so I’d go him

Mile High: Does the tandem of Story/Lemahieu block B. Rodgers from moving up to MLB in 17/18? Any chance one of those guys has another spot they plug into?

Paul Sporer: He was never coming up this year anyway, so maybe in ’18, but they’ll figure it out when he’s ready

Nolson: Hi Paul! you’re the best! lover your witty retorts. Follow-up to the Dee Gordon for draft picks in 9 team NL Only: Would you then keep Gordon over Wil Myers? Other keepers are Lester, Cueto, Harper, Trea

Paul Sporer: Thanks for the kind words! I’d def keep Myers over DG, but I just think DG should return something legit via trade

Roy: Hey Paul, apologies if this has been asked earlier (I just clicked in), but what’s realistic for Gattis in terms of plate appearances in 2017?

Paul Sporer: I think he gets his PT and approaches 500 PA. I can’t recall a time where a legitimately strong bat was in a PT crunch and DIDN’T eventually find that PT. They have old and unproven guys, so he’s not completely blocked off IMO

Snowflake: Sure Villar will play more than any C, but I still need a C

Paul Sporer: I know, so you can draft one. But I think it’s too much to keep Sanchez over Villar

Greg: You’re one of the higher people on Michael Wacha in your rankings. Why so?

Paul Sporer: The talent is obvious, it really comes down to health (as it often does for SPs). Last year was a washout, but even still the skills were right in line with his career marks. I just don’t see how he’s not a mid-3.00s arm at the very least with health

Scooter: Fantasy value over the next three seasons. Who’s higher? Bregman or Sano?

Paul Sporer: Bregman

Ted: Matt Bush a sleeper closer candidate? How good is his stuff?

Paul Sporer: Yes he is. He’s filthy for sure. I’m not entirely sold on Dyson, though the Rangers could be thinking that Bush is their best RP and does more good in 7th-8th while Dyson can adequately maintain the closer’s role

Paul Sporer: It’s one of those things where it makes real sense sabermetrically, but hurts us fantasy wise

Nick: Pts league dynasty: Ray Pineda Desmond for Sierra Bellinger Hader?

Paul Sporer: Side A if you’re competing now of course

Hector: I also read Dan Rafael’s chats (ESPN Boxing) weekly and he is known for marathon chats and people love it. Thanks for helping us fill in our slow Friday time with your enjoyable chats!

Paul Sporer: No problem! I appreciate everyone being here

Chris : Dynasty Judge or O’Neil??

Paul Sporer: Tyler O’Neill

James: All this relief talk, other than the obvious top closers… which handful of relievers are the filthiest?

Paul Sporer: Diaz, Ramos, Ottavino’s three-headed slider, Neris with his splitty, and Jim Johnson was looking very filthy late last year with his mid-90s super sinker back in his arsenal

cJ: Bogey out.. Duffy 14rd or E Diaz 14 Rd? Paul help!

Paul Sporer: I prefer Duffy

GianMarlo Stanfield: I have four super cheap 2nd/3rd round hitter types in a 12 team mixed auction. My strategy should be to spend big on 3 to 4 more studs and go from there right?

Paul Sporer: Ya I like that!

Max Power: Looking to use my extra draft picks to grab a few guys to stash on the DL, who should I target?

Paul Sporer: Tyson Ross, Ryu, Capps

Zach: 14 team roto keeper league. Have a chance to aquire either Trout or Correa. Which deal, if any, would you do: Goldschmidt/Schwarber for Trout/Herrera or Goldschmidt/Russell for Correa/Herrera?

Paul Sporer: …. didn’t you already ask this?!

cJ: Team Duffy! Thanks I’m going to lock him in.

Paul Sporer: I love it

Dave: If schwarber has catcher eligibility in a 12 team root league that makes him keepable and what rank at the position? Top 3?

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s behind Posey and Lucroy and just ahead of Sanchez

Greg: Does Bartolo Colon hit more homers than Kyle Schwarber again?

Paul Sporer: For sure, book it

Snowflake: I’m keeping Sanchez. We’ll talk in October

Paul Sporer: Good luck! Process v. outcome, though. This is a bad process IMO, but I don’t rule out that it could have a good outocme

Paul Sporer: outcome*

Chris : thoughts on Dillson Herrera this year and going forward/

Paul Sporer: v young so it could be another year or two, but strikes me as a solid-but-unspectacular MI with some punch and speed

MeDeKe: Swihart or Sisco in a dynasty (no contracts, keep forever) – 6 x 6. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Swihart

James: Carter Capps not in the filthiest reliever discussion?

Paul Sporer: Lots of nasty RPs. Couldn’t name em all

Nick: Pts league dynasty have Desmond Yelich McCutchen Blackmon Cargo Cruz to fit into 4 spots. Who stays who gets flipped?

Paul Sporer: Blackmon, Cruz, Cutch, and Desi, but that group is really tight http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-outfield/

kdallas: Duffy the Vampire Slayer!

Paul Sporer: LOL, I like it

arrival sucked: Thoughts on Gerrit Cole this year?

Paul Sporer: Ace if healthy, but that’s a big IF obviously

Snowflake: I agree it’s bad process. But I’ll enjoy it more having Sanchez on my team. Don’t really care about Villar. And if I don’t keep Sanchez and he actually is the next Babe Ruth I’ll be so mad

Paul Sporer: In the end, we’re trying to have fun, so I get it

Paul Sporer: “Get your guys”

James: In a league with 5 OF slots, you carry another one or two OF to slot in as needed. Is there a rule of thumb for how many plate appearances those guys will actually play? Conceptually I see that they won’t get all theirs in, because they’ll ride pine when all top 5 are going. But (barring injuries) I’m still trying to project how much they will factor into my stats…

Paul Sporer: Honestly there is no set answer there. It’s just entirely dependent on how your top five pan out. Can’t really expect all 5 you draft to stud out

Wes: In a 12 team dynasty, would you trade Rizzo for Correa? I already have Freeman as well.

Paul Sporer: I would in fact

cJ: And now I have a team name…

Paul Sporer: Chatters helping chatters!

Yates: Paul, what’s your take on the ideal time period to hold your draft?

Paul Sporer: mid-to-late March

Tim: Should Trevor Rosenthal start or stay in the bullpen? Are you a fan going forward?

Paul Sporer: I’ve always liked Rosy and actually advocated him starting back when he was moving to the pen so I think he might have the stuff to start. These transitions are tough bc it’s so much harder to start, but I’m keeping a close eye on Rosy’s transition

James: Wouldn’t it be great if Cole was an ace for the next five years, and Story decided he wanted to be a chef or tennis pro? Then I wouldn’t get upset about that trade I made (when I attempted a “sell high” on Story about three weeks into last season)…

Paul Sporer: Hahaha I don’t want the Story part to happen, though, I love him this year

kdallas: @cj, it’s very gif-able too (if you’re in espn or cbs formats)

Scuba Steve: fairly deep h2h points keeper league, who should i take with my first pick in the second round (20th overall): Eaton, Paxton, Grandal, or Kemp? Ive got a balanced team right now and don’t need to reach for positions.

Paul Sporer: Eaton or Paxton

kdallas: re: Capps, I like him a lot as a final reserve round stash (thinking 12 teamers). Once he gets the closer role, he’ll be hot fire (i hope!)

Paul Sporer: Ya I love Capps, too, but I’m not 100% sure Maurer relinquishes the role

Kyle: Are the Cubs keeping Eddie Butler as a starter for now or transitioning him to the bullpen for this year?

Paul Sporer: I believe SP

Devin Mesoraco: Just draft me and keep Villar. I will outhit Gary Sanchez anyways and be much cheaper.

Paul Sporer: There ya go, Snowflake!

Snowflake: Trying to work on a team budget where I could draft Trout, Arenado, one elite 1B, and one ace after keeping Harper, Story and my guy Sanchez. Looks like I would have to draft 14 $1 or $2 guys. Totally worth it right…

Paul Sporer: How many tms again?

Snowflake: 12 teams

Paul Sporer: Go for it!

Colby Rasmus: Gillette or Schick?

Paul Sporer: lol

A. Reitz: Thoughts on J. Kelly for a Holds league? New pitch legits?

Paul Sporer: That could be sneaky strong. He’s got some solid stuff

Diego: Does Tyler O’Neill get 200+ MLB at bats this year?

Paul Sporer: At most

Greg: move arrieta for sano and renfroe?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, probably not

Dan: Big Cubs fan and love to draft Cubs…is 4 or 5 Cubs on my roster just too many?

Paul Sporer: No, can’t hurt drafting good players on a great tm

Brad: If dreamy green eyed kk plays 150 games, can you see 20 homers 30sbs 340 obp or am I lost in his eyes?

Paul Sporer: Completely plausible.

Paul Sporer: Can I go even? If forced, I’d say a little under, but it feels right

Gil Renard : Matt Kemp: over or under 30 HR/90 RBI this year?

Paul Sporer: Whoops, answered the question before posting it lol

Big Tuna: Is Willson Contreras worth keeping in 13th in an OPS instead of AVG league?

Paul Sporer: Def

Nick: Most saves in Cincy?

Paul Sporer: Raisel

Big Tuna: What is your thought process when deciding on keepers? Best players? Most value at keepablw

your buddy kevin arnold: are we in a fight? if so – i didn’t do anything. it was wayne!

Paul Sporer: lol

TheREALrobdeer: 14 team keep 12, are you still keeping Alex Reyes over a guy like Smyly?

Paul Sporer: No

Big Tuna: what is your strategy on keepers? Best players? Most value at keepable slot?

Paul Sporer: You’re killing me. You asked the same question twice in one minute! Now I’m deleting my answer 🙂

Meat: What projection systems do you generally prefer? Zips or Steamer?

Paul Sporer: Between the two, I guess ZIPS, but I really don’t get too hyped on projection systems. I like to look at them for fun, but I don’t blindly trust any of em

Dan: Keeping Lester $10 and Quintana $6…also keep CMart $12 or Maeda $11 or neither

Paul Sporer: CMart

Eric Longenhagen: You prefer Brinson or Bellinger as a long-term keeper?

Paul Sporer: Ooh damn, I think Brinson, but I fell in love with Bellinger at AFL.

Paul Sporer: Not sure if that’s really Eric or someone trolling, but real Eric will be on The Sleeper and The Bust podcast next week talking fantasy-viable prospects

MeDeKe: Re: Colby Rasmus – Weed Wacker, def Weed Wacker

Paul Sporer: That’s true. Ditch the razor and go full on Wacker

Big Tuna: I have Trea as a keeper and he’ll have 2B/SS/OF eligibility? Should I consider him as a SS or keep Addison in 14th and slide Turner to OF? Is he as valuable there?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s actually MOST valuable at OF, so I would still keep Addy with him

Mike : Renfoe or margoe 15 team

Paul Sporer: Renfroe, but it’s really preference of pwr v. spd

Koby: It seems like most experts seem to be predicting a plateau or regression from Yelich. But he lowered his GB rate while showing elite HR distance. Seems strange that a 25 yo isn’t getting more hype as a guy who could take another step. What am I missing?

Paul Sporer: Didn’t drop his GB% THAT much and needed a 24% HR/FB rate. I think it’s just a little tough to automatically see improvement after last year. I’m a fan for sure, but I see more of a repeat then true growth

Big Tuna: Sorry, I accidentally hit send with a typo, and I’m an English teacher, so I couldn’t allow that.

Paul Sporer: Hahahaha, OK. I accept that!

Big Tuna: What’s the best way to get rankings advice in a specialty league, like OPS or AVG or SV/H?

Paul Sporer: Auction calculator has those stats – http://www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx?

Matt: Keep Lester in Rd7 or Britton in Rd12? 10-team H2H. Was leaning Britton, but recent injury news has me 2nd guessing.

Paul Sporer: Britton. I try not to overreact to the early season bump and bruise news. I think he’ll be fine.

Nick: Is there a tool that you can input your projections + adp/auction calculator that spits out the best possible team?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, not that I’m aware, no.

Paul Sporer: Probably bc it’s impossible to do that in a draft. ADPs are just averages and there’s way too much variability

Dago: Rendon or Justin Turner? Projections (pecota, steamer and zips) have them close. Preference?

Paul Sporer: Rendon for me, but it is a preference thing

Paul Sporer: You are the man!

Paul Sporer: Thanks!

Enlightening Round: Does Colby Rasmus‘ new Amish beard have any fantasy relevant powers we should all know about?

Paul Sporer: lol contains at least 3 extra HRs

Paxton: Improved OF defense.
One of the worst LOB% in 2016 (111 of 118 pitchers with 120 IP)
.347 BABIP should improve. (117 of 118)

3.00 ERA possible.

On the opposite side Hard hit rate is 117 of 118 pitchers with more than 120 innings

Paul Sporer: Ya it was a more control than command last year so he got hit hard sometimes, but I think he sharpens the command with his new velo and takes off

Mike: Thanks for the chat Paul! 20-team 5×5 w/OBP, three-year cap on keepers … Max Kepler $7 + Dylan Bundy $7 for HanRam $15, all entering their second contract year. Which side ya like?

Paul Sporer: No prob! Fair deal both sides, but I’d go Hanley personally

Big Tuna: Do you see any growth potential for Piscotty?

Paul Sporer: I love Piscotty, but I don’t know that there’s a ton of growth off of ’16. I could see him adding some AVG up to .290ish, but otherwise I’m just eyeing a repeat

A. Reitz: On a scale of 1-10, how excited are you for MLB The Show 17, my body is ready. New ball physics and what appears to be a more realistic size OF is a game changer…

Paul Sporer: 38

Paul Sporer: I’m so geeked for it

bearproof: I’m going to compensate for all the people asking their question multiple times by only asking half of my ques-

Paul Sporer: lol

Trainman: hey Paul! Hope your well happy fake baseball is here. Last keeper in An AL only: berrios or Vogelbach? $2 each.

Paul Sporer: So happy about baseball being back! Gimme Berrios!!

Dago: I saw your exchange with baseball guys (Ray) about Stanton. I’m a believer, but feel that K-Davis can be the Wal-Mart version. Would you agree? Do you like Crush with a K this yr?

Paul Sporer: I do agree with that, yes. Good name for it, too.

Snowflake: The problem with my proposed extremely top heavy draft is I’ll have a really boring 2 hours in the middle where I need to not get too drunk

Paul Sporer: hahaha, that’s true. never a worry for me since I don’t drink anymore, but a valid concern for some

Trainman: Oops forgot to add on to my previous question, my league has OBP as a category

Paul Sporer: Still Berrios

Hank: I read something the other day saying that an 80 hitter with below average tools everywhere else has no value, not even as a pinch hitter. How is this so? Wouldn’t an 80 hitter at DH be something who leads the league in batting average every season? Even with 0 home runs and 0 steals, isn’t that very valuable?

Paul Sporer: So like 80-grade contact basically if we’re saying 0 at power?

Paul Sporer: Ya I gotta think it’d still have value

Trainman: my fantasy team is 0 for 9 so far. Panic? Oh wait..it’s only spring training

Paul Sporer: lololol

Big Tuna: Who are some SPs you’re targeting late as SP5 or 6?

Paul Sporer: Cotton, Wacha, Cobb, Guerra, Folty, Finny, Lynn, Miller, L.Weaver, Skaggs, Norris, T.Anderson, and Berrios

A. Reitz: Pineda higher than Nola in an earlier ? Interesting…

Paul Sporer: 3 spots apart – virtually nothing – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-starting-pitcher/

Big Tuna: The projections for Thames are crazy. What do you expect of him? Where would you target him in a draft?

Paul Sporer: He was INSANE in KBO so the translations are strong. I think he can go .265-30-85-10

Jobu: Last 2 keepers in a 12 team h2h 7×7, big rosters: bell, buxton, peraza, Domingo, Quintana ? Thanks

Paul Sporer: Q and I think Buxton … maybe Peraza if you prefer, but Buxton’s ceiling is lit

Ryno: Think Benintendi could evolve into a Mookie Betts/Trout type guy?

Paul Sporer: That’s a bit much

Trainman: On fantasy sports radio today, George Springer said he will steal bases “when the situation says I’m supposed to.” Is 15 SB his ceiling? Or should springer owners be only expecting 10? Or am I reading too much into this since I just woke up?

Paul Sporer: I try not to overreact to the SB talk on the high end or low end in spring, but ya it seems like he’s suggesting he’ll be around the 15 range as opposed to 25+ which is what his speed could yield. When your lineup is that stout, you can’t run into outs

cJ: @BigTuna I use this formula – Auction Calculator + Gut + Paul + Eno / 4 =

Snowflake: Ugh… I’m still so torn about Gary. I know it’s wrong, but it feels so right

Paul Sporer: Commit to it

Ryan: What kinda slash line should we expect from Brinson in a typical peak year from him?

Paul Sporer: Well if it’s a peak year, it’s not typical. So peak I could see like a .295/.360/.520 kind of explosion – so kinda like Manny Machado last year. Typically, I’m thinking more .270/.340/.480 – so kinda like Justin Turner last year.

Playin’ Games with Swihart: Why is everybody so down on Arrieta? Isn’t there an insane ceiling paired with a high floor for him?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think everybody. But I kind of am and it’s bc of health. He doesn’t have a great health track record so that’s where my concern comes from. His BB% did spike last year, too

Playin’ Games with Swihart: If you’re committed to stars and scrubs approach in a standard 12 team league, how much of the $260 do you allocate to lets say the top 6 guys on your roster?

Paul Sporer: Like ~$180-200?

A. Reitz: 30 Team Dynasty ROTO, Holds and OPS league. My Arrieta for Quintana + Pineda. I’d save about $10M

Paul Sporer: I’m good with that

your buddy kevin arnold: standard 5X5 12 man auction keeper league ($300). trade $10 odor and $20 arrieta for $22 machado? i would replace arrieta with a $23 verlander.

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m in on that

Playin’ Games with Swihart: I can’t decide if I’d love you or hate you in person.

Paul Sporer: LOL

Paul Sporer: Interesting

Tom: Last keeper in a keep 5, Yelich or Lester?

Paul Sporer: Yelly Yell

Peter Moylan: Spectacles or contacts?

Paul Sporer: Specs all the way

Hector: Are you a believer in exit velocity pertaining to potential breakouts for a player?

Paul Sporer: Definitely

Ryan: Thoughts on David Dahl? His super high BABIP concerns me some from last year

Matt: Mazara or Dahl in a keep forever league?

Paul Sporer: Ya I mean the BABIP will come down, but that Coors inflates BABIP so I don’t think it’s going to sink. And bc of Coors, I go Dahl over Maz

RB: Think Benintendi is Ted Williams reborn?

Paul Sporer: He’s Tedrry Willionds

El Duderino: With Maddon proclaiming 140 Games for Schwarber, does that change your rank of him?

Paul Sporer: Not really

Dago: Thanks for throwing a CG on a Friday!

Paul Sporer: No problem!

RB: How good do you think Nick Senzel is going to be for us Reds fans?

Paul Sporer: Expectations are high. Looks like a complete 3B, middle of the order bat.

DIesel: 12 tm mixed, pick 2 of 3 for keepers, 3rd goes to RFA (blind bid) Oh $1, Ed Diaz $1, Roark 1$,

Paul Sporer: I’ll go with the closers

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going!

First Time Poster: In a 6×6 (QS) 12-teamer my pitching staff through 9 rounds is Thor, Quintana, Nola, Jensen, and Osuna. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: That’s strong! An ace, two stud closers, a workhorse, and a high upside #3. Good start

Matt: Who’s AL ROY and NL ROY this year?

Paul Sporer: Beni and Dansby are so obvious, but also probably the right answers. Off the board a bit – Francis Martes and Hunter Renfroe

Beni: BeniTONSOFTALENTdi!

Todd: How concerned are you about Scherzer’s knuckle afffecting his availability/effectiveness this season?

Paul Sporer: Little to not at all

Ryan: Gray, Paxton, or McCullers in a keep forever league?

Paul Sporer: Three of my faves. I think I go Paxton there

Playin’ Games with Swihart: How many questions per chat are plants to plug an update?

Paul Sporer: ?

Paul Sporer: An update to what?

Captain Jack: you are a man of incredible stamina

Paul Sporer: Thanks!

Trainman: Do you see Max Kepler breaking out this year? 25 homers, 15 SB with an .850 slash line?

Paul Sporer: Not at that level, no. Solid bat, though

bearproof: James Paxton is 2 years younger than Felix Hernadez.

Paul Sporer: Ya, he’s not a baby. Which actually makes me like him more, tbh.

Brad: 12 team NL only $280 cap with 3 year contracts, how much would you throw at Harper?

Paul Sporer: $45 get it done?

Paul Sporer: OK, I think that’ll cap it! Thank y’all so much for hanging out so long!

Paul Sporer: Take care, see you next week!