Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – December 1st, 2016

Paul Sporer: hey yall!!! let’s chat! can’t embed Vimeos, but unfortunately my song of the day isn’t on youtube https://vimeo.com/192855847

Hannah Hochevar: Why are the O’s only signing players named Logan? And not even the good ones?!

Paul Sporer: LOL are there any good ones?

Dal: Where is Dexter Fowler gonna end up?

Paul Sporer: Tex, StL, and Tor are my picks in that order

Jason: Dynasty points league: Bautista, Kepler, Teoscar Hernandez, and Victor Martinez for Goldschmidt?

Paul Sporer: I like getting the superstar player. Doesn’t seem too gaudy of a pricetag either. Lock it in!

Anthony: James Paxton is going to win the Cy Young. Remember this comment, Paul…..

Paul Sporer: Did the new CBA change Cy Young requirements to be for pitchers with fewer than 150 IP?

Paul Sporer: Don’t get me wrong, I love Paxton’s talent. And his mechanical changes this year were great, but we gotta see him stay upright

Buddy the Elf: Greetings from Austin! do you think Springer is in a deal for Archer or Sale? Sign EE and Sign Hill!!

Paul Sporer: Hey Buddy! Austin FTW. I think they’d try hard to NOT include him, but I don’t think a deal for either of them can be prospects only. It’d take a big centerpiece like Springer or Bregman

CA Poke: When drafting multiple teams for a fantasy season, do you try and draft a lot of the same players for each team or do you try and mix it up more? Specifically wondering about NFBC format.

Paul Sporer: I do often end up with a core of players across the many leagues. If I believe in them, I want multiple shares. Plus, I really don’t want to be cheering for every outcome. In football, I’ll diversify bc it’s so damn brutal with injuries and you can get burnt pretty badly if you just get the same RB/WR everywhere, but I find that less so in baseball, especially with hitters

SPG: Is a 35 Hr follow up season for Carlos Santana unrealistic?

Paul Sporer: No, I think he can do it again. His 17% HR/FB was a career-high, but hardly exorbitant (and he’s hit 16% twice). He is sneakily one of the more durable guys out there (152+ gms every year but 1 since ’11… and 143 that “off” year)

ChicagoCardinal: Hi Paul. I’m a first time OttoNeu player with a bottom half team and $126 for 9 players. I already have Bellinger, Rodgers and Yadier Alvarez. Should I load up on a couple studs and a bunch of $1-$3 kids or spread the money out?

Paul Sporer: I’d rather get studs and if you’re not ready to compete this year, then sell them for the $1-3 kids with a better idea of who the good ones are instead of spec’ing on a bunch yourself

Lou: What would a trade for starting pitching look like to you involving the Cubs?

Paul Sporer: They’re still so talent-rich that they can go a number of ways, but I think it starts with an Ian Happ

Jerry DiPoto: The floor is all that matters… At least, that’s what my moves mean

Paul Sporer: I don’t have an issue with your moves, generally speaking

big boy: Hey Paul – thoughts on a springer for benitendi? I can keep springer next 2 yrs @$16. Benitendi is $1 for this year (and escalating $5 per year next year). Many thanks man!

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s a really even up deal. I think I’d go for Beni. I love Springer as a player, but he needed a boatload of PA (MLB high 744) to do not THAT much

JD15: Cubs and rich hill? Match or no?

Paul Sporer: Folks of a certain age might not know that he was with them during their last World Series win before this year’s

Paul Sporer: OK, not that long, but he did start there. That’s not terribly relevant given that they have a completely different regime, but yeah I could see them doing it, tbh.

JD15: Re: Cubs and Hill. Seems like with Montgomery as a safety net, they could gamble on hill, especially with Otani not coming next year they dont need to save

Paul Sporer: Ya, that’s completely fair. I guess it depends just how much they love Monty as SP

Paul Sporer: if they’re deadset on it, then they’d be unlikely to make a big trade or sign Hill.

Minty: 10 team 30 man roster OBP/QS have Bryant/Rizzo/Betts/Arenado/Correa/Springer/Beni/Thor/Urias/Stroman. Hold Moncada or deal for pitching?

Paul Sporer: Hold. Deal for the SP in-season if you need it. But don’t acquire a buncha pitching prior to the season

Gary: New CBA totally shafted international players. Do you think this singlehandedly delayed Otani coming to the majors

Paul Sporer: So weird how deadset they were on screwing over int’l players somehow. I haven’t fully read how it affects Otani, but I think latest word has him slated to come over next year regardless?

Eric: Just made this trade to get Bryant in my ottoneu 5×5 league, how’d I do? Had a roster crunch and needed to consolidate talent. $38 Bryant + $8 Oh for $16 Springer + $7 Danny Duffy + $6 Alex Reyes + $4 Bradley Zimmer

Paul Sporer: That’s a strong move for talent consolidation. You paid, as you should for KB, but you still got the best player and a closer I REALLY like in Oh

Sulzer: What are your thoughts on Peraza at MI if I’ve got Gordon and Villar at 2B and SS. Solid infield?

Paul Sporer: Hella fast! You need A LOT of power to counter Gordon and Peraza, but I like the speed base you’re building, espec. if you plan to trade it in May/June when you’ve built up a lead

JD15: Am I the only Cubs fan that is open to trading Schwarber? I love him and I think he can be a great Outfielder, I doubt his stock is ever higher than it is (now COMING OFF a torn ACL). Plus, this allows Soler to get an opportunity to be a a very solid OF instead of just dumping him at a low value.

Paul Sporer: I think fans are definitely more against it than the org themselves. I think this front office knows that very few players are untouchable in the right deal and there are deals out there that’d be good enough to include Schwarber

Pomeranz: Any reason to believe Corbin can be the pitcher he was a few years ago, or is he done?

Paul Sporer: It was his first full season back from TJ so I’m willing to give him a touch of leeway, but it was unquestionably a brutal season. I’m not FULLY ignoring him, but I can’t pretend there was much to takeaway as a positive from ’16

Paul Sporer: $1 in NL-only is probably the most I’d do

BarryBaker: Yunel Escobar .280/10HR/50RBI/68Runs Optimistic or Realistic?

Paul Sporer: A little optimistic from a volume standpoint. Has played viewer than 140 G the last 3 years and I wouldn’t *bet* on a health spike at age-34

Larry David: Sporer! Hey man. I need some persuading in an off-season deal I have brewing. I have Gary Sanchez at C. I would be trading Kipnis/Sal Perez/Isan Diaz for an upgrade to Dozier, plus he’d give me Gleyber Torres who I think I’m far too in love with at the moment. And a pick which is fairly inconsequential. 14tm points league, all players kept, no contracts. I just can’t see Kip hitting 23HR ever again. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’d like to persuade you to do it! I prefer Doz to Kip as well and also share in Gleyber love. I got to watch him take BP in the AFL and just melted. Ya, it’s one BP sesh, but hot damn

Paul Sporer: I’m a handful of questions behind so please don’t repeat Qs

Paul Sporer: I’m going to go at least another 45-60

Minty: What’re your thoughts on the Dodgers’ Bellinger in terms of excitement and if they trade him?

Paul Sporer: His power is filthy. He was trying to club it 600 ft. every AB during the Fall Stars game and I loved it, lol. Although I did hear that he kind of does that in season, too. But he’s super athletic for a 1B so I’m not sure he’s locked in there which adds to is prospect value

FlibbertyGibbet: I can keep six of these guys at the same price ($6) in a mixed league with OPS and K/BB: Bregman, Swanson, Profar, Mazara, Benintendi, Aaron Sanchez, Alex Reyes–and Schwarber at $9. Which six to keep?

Paul Sporer: Breg, Swanson, Maz, Beni, Sanchez and Schwarber. Love Reyes, but could see ups and downs until he really establishes himself in a couple years

forever it: Would you rather have Straily/Yohander Mendez or Domingo Santana in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: Domingo!

Bobby Blownilla: In a 5×5 dynasty OBP roto where I need speed from the OF, please rank Odubel, JBJ, or Jose Ramirez? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: if you’re going for speed, I think JBJ has to go to the back of the line. Odubel, Ramirez, JBJ

FlibbertyGibbet: I can keep 6 in a standard 10-team roto league. I have a few no-doubters: Altuve, Arenado, Corey Seager, Arrieta, and Scherzer. But I’m not sure how to handle three guys on the cusp: Dee Gordon, DeGrom and Chapman. Do any of those three seem like must-keep players, or should I try to package the cusp guys for one no-doubt keeper?

Paul Sporer: Closers are shaky by nature, but there are outliers and I think Chapman qualifies. I think he’s atop that trio for me followed by Dee then deGrom. A fully healthy deGrom is probably ahead of Gordon for me, but that’s not the case right now.

Paul Sporer: That said, to your last point, if you can package for a more slam dunk keeper, I’m ALL for it. Even if you have to include Arrieta or Scherzer with one or two of the maybes to get a lockdown, no-doubt first rounder

Jim: You are GM DM. Which Royals do you try to keep past 2017, and which do you part with (in trade etc) midseason and/or end of year? (Cain, Hosmer, Moose, Davis (if still there), etc) Which will yield the best return ?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably try to keep Hosmer, but I think he’d also deliver the most in a deal. Gotta see how Moose returns from the knee.

Charlie: Name a possible established MLB guy who the Sox could get back in a Sale deal? Would Dodgers move Pederson?

Paul Sporer: I could definitely see Pederson being involved in a Sale deal. Maybe JBJ from Boston.

Sean: Of course TINSTAPP, but which SP prospect would you feel most comfortable with being aggressive in acquiring to help in 2017?

Paul Sporer: I’m not fully quitting Giolito and now the price is lower, so I’m ready to re-invest

Pomeranz: My $7 Alex Reyes for his $18 Dahl in an NL only. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Dahl!

Ryon Healy: Do you think I could become a poor man’s Josh Donaldson?

Paul Sporer: That might be a bridge too far, but I do really like Healy.

Paul Sporer: Although you did say poor man’s. I guess we’d have to define that further, but I kinda overlooked the poor man’s part initially. So are we talking .280/25?

Minty: OBP dynasty and dunno how long Springer will keep it up with his profile. What OF, even if he isn’t quite equal yet, would you target in a deal?

Paul Sporer: Dahl, Pollock, Polanco, and Yelich are names off the top of my head

Guy With Feelings: Let’s say you were in a 16 team H2H dynasty league that is slightly tilted toward pitchers (and wins…. fml) and your team was built to win now. Aces are near impossible to acquire in this hypothetical league and you have an offer on the table to acquire Sale for Quintana, Ventura, Eloy, and the 4th Pick in the minor league draft. What would you do, Paul?????

Paul Sporer: That deal works, especially with the stipulations you’ve laid out

Craig: Come over next year and Otani gets $5/6 million dollars, come over in 3 years and get $250 million? Easy decision.

JD15: Re: Otani. Have to be 25. Passan tweeting about it earlier, so it will be 2019 before we seem him 🙁

Paul Sporer: Ohhhh, ok. I need to read up on the int’l changes.

Tom: Whaddya think about Pineda next year? the Ks and the swinging strike rate look to me like a possible top 20 pitcher who I can get a lower rate. Results/injury history say stay away

Paul Sporer: and horrible command. I need to see something from him at this point. I could see myself MAYBE getting a share just in case, but I’m definitely not seeking him out at this point. He just hasn’t shown enough command to turn those K/BB rates into top flight production

Cory S.: How would envision a McCutchen to the Nats looking?

Paul Sporer: Discussed it yesterday w/Eno (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-407-cespedes-to-mets/) and we settled on something like Reynaldo Lopez, A.J. Cole, and Brian Goodwin for Cutch. Some of the rumors we’re hearing suggest maybe one of the top guys – Giolito or Robles – could be involved, but I imagine including one of them would lower the secondary pieces

DB: thoughts on the Cutch rumors? Hearing Robles, Joe Ross OR Rey Lopez, and a lottery ticket in low minors.

Paul Sporer: Whoops, should’ve included that w/Cory’s Q

Paul Sporer: One of Ross, Giolito, or Lopez is definitely going, IMO. Depending on who it is will determine the rest of it

DB: How would we perceive Soler if he hadn’t seen parts of 3 seasons in majors so far? Guy is still 24, had good BB%, and not horrible K% for a power hitter. If he had his first cup-o-coffee this year instead of 2014, he’d be a top tier prospect right?

Paul Sporer: Ya it’s weird how quickly we (as a fantasy baseball community) move away from top prospects after small samples of modest work. He has just over a full season 107 OPS+ which actually isn’t all that bad for someone in his ages 22-24 seasons. I’m sure he’s still coveted by many teams and I can still see him being a centerpiece in a deal this offseason

Jason: What type of number can young catchers like Blake Swihart and Austin Hedges put up? Which do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: Is Swihart still a C? He won’t qualify there in fantasy next year, but that doesn’t mean he’s done behind the dish. I generally prefer him to Hedges, though. Hedges isn’t just a defense-first catcher, he’s a defense-only one.

Will: Yasiel Puigs last 600 at bats rival that of Stephen Piscotty, yet Puig is called horrible and Piscotty is called amazing. What gives? They are the same age too.

Paul Sporer: I hear ya, I’m an avid Puig supporter. I just don’t get the hate on him. He has fallen off from the 2013-14 pace for sure, but he’s also dealt with injuries. It’s hard not to think a healthy Puig is still a middle of the order bat

Terry: What type of stat line is Byron Buxton putting up in 2018? Are you a fan?

Paul Sporer: That’s an interesting hypothetical since 2017 is an unknown, but I’ll take a stab: .260/22 HR/35 SB

Goat Fountain: Congrats, full-time fantasy dude! Love the pod. I have a crappy team (standard roto, 10 teams) from which to pick three keepers. These craptacular choices include: McCutch, Tulo, Thor, V-Mart, Dee Gordon, Trumbo, Archer, Carrasco, and Chapman. Which of these three definitely-not-top-30 guys should I keep?

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! I don’t think you’re too bad off, even in a 10-teamer. Gimme Thor, Cutch, and Carrasco and then just pound offense like crazy to make up for keeping 2 SPs

Minty: For eligibility purposes, does Jon Jay signing suppress Baez’ PT this year but keeps him moving around?

Paul Sporer: I think Jay is a platoon w/Almora. I still think Baez bounces around, but primarily plays 2B.

Macky Sasser: In 10 team AL only 4×4 (no runs, to k) keep 4; Which 4 should I keep out of Altuve, Encarnacion, Khris Davis, Evan Gattis, Kevin Kiermeier, Edwyn Diaz, Cody Allen

Paul Sporer: Altuve, EE, and Davis for sure. The 4th is tough. Even with Ks not counting, I’m interested in Diaz since SVs get a jump up in 4×4, but I think push come to shove, I gotta go Gattis. I’ve never been a huge fan, but 30 HR at C in an AL only is nice.

Ceej: Who should I realistically be hoping for in a Cutch to Nate deal?

Paul Sporer: Giolito or Ross. Reynaldo Lopez plus other stuff wouldn’t be awful, but I’d def prefer one of the others

Kloppo: Given recent upward trend in power hitting and inverse trend in swiping bases, does punting SB as a category make more sense to you than ever?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely

Paul Sporer: There are only a few true rabbits so if you don’t get one, just stock up on the hitting categories and build a stout staff

Drew Pomegranate: I’m in a 15 team dynasty league and have Syndergaard, Cole, Norris and Matz as keepers all very cheap Do you think it makes sense to load up on hitting at auction and take a flier on $1-$3 SP types to fill out the rotation?

Paul Sporer: Ya, this is perfectly viable. There’s obviously risk with that quartet, but I wouldn’t spend TOO much on my arms from there. Maybe one established guy and then gambles beyond that

Drew Pomeranz: Heyyyyyyyyyyyyy, how am I gonna do in Boston for a full season?

Paul Sporer: I still like you! I think you’ll be a solid arm: 3.30-3.80 range (which isn’t too many runs over 180 IP) with plenty of Ks

Tom: Do we see any kind of closer time-shares next year, like say Miller/Allen each getting 20+ saves ?

Paul Sporer: I think Miller will get some SVs, but Allen will be the primary closer. I’d see more of 30-35/10-12 split

Creamy: Thoughts on Jon Gray this season? Given his high K rate but bad ballpark to pitch in, what round (12 team draft) presents good value to take the plunge?

Paul Sporer: I love Gray, I actually think he has the stuff to survive Coors and dominate on the road. I’d take him in an early double-digit round of a 12-teamer

Tim: First closer to lose gig for non-injury reasons next year? Jeanmar Gomez favorite? Familia is my dark horse to lose it to Reed since Mets seem to have had their faith shaken at the end of last year

Paul Sporer: Familia is a facing a suspension for DV charge so he’s definitely atop my list

Ceej: Is Springer a fantasy sell high or ride it for a couple more years?

Paul Sporer: I’d be open to selling, yes. I really like him as a real life player, but his numbers just weren’t THAT great

Buctober: Fun Fact about Ian Happ. In addition to being a switch hitting SS in High School, he was also a side-arm / submarine throwing reliever

Paul Sporer: STUD! They need to make him a hitter/pitcher on MLB the show when makes it to the majors, lol

Marc: Say the Pirates get Ross in the possible Cutch deal to the Nats. How much does that affect Ross’ value?

Paul Sporer: I’d say it improve it, but I wouldn’t get nuts about it. Maybe a couple rounds.

Paul Sporer: I’m already interested in Ross for ’17. A better park would help, but going to Pittsburgh doesn’t automatically enhance him greatly

Paul Sporer: hey y’all, I gotta get going. I’m sorry I couldn’t get to all the Qs. there are some really good ones left, so please bring them to next week’s chat. I’m going to try and start earlier so we can go longer